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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The general election: Here we come?

Posted: Thursday, May 08, 2008 9:09 AM by Mark Murray

The Wall Street Journal: "So confident are Obama supporters in Congress that some have begun talking of his convention acceptance speech this August. Sen. Obama first gained broad recognition for his keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic convention, when he was seeking election to the U.S. Senate. As one Democrat noted, if Sen. Obama were nominated, his acceptance address would be the night of Aug. 28 -- the 45th anniversary of civil-rights leader Martin Luther King's ‘I Have A Dream’ speech."

The WSJ also takes a look at non-traditional swing states, like North Carolina.

Time's Joe Klein: "A general-election campaign between John McCain and Barack Obama doesn't need any hype. It won't be boring. The question is whether we, politicians and press alike, will grant this election — and electorate — the respect that it deserves."

The New York Times notes the GOP is treating Obama as the Dem nominee. "Officials in the McCain campaign and at the Republican National Committee say that they have not counted Mrs. Clinton out, but some Republicans say that the outcome is clear. ‘Right now Hillary Clinton may not be able to do the math, but Republicans have been for the last couple of weeks,’ said Kevin Madden, a Republican consultant who worked on Mitt Romney’s campaign this year.”

“Some of the issues that Republicans are beginning to raise paint a picture of what the fall election strategy against Mr. Obama might look like. Some are traditional, using Mr. Obama’s support for withdrawing the troops from Iraq to portray him as weak on national security and his opposition to suspending the federal gas tax this summer to show him as a tax-and-spend Democrat… Another line of attack seems to be squarely directed at independent and swing voters, whom both the McCain and Obama campaigns have been courting. The McCain campaign has argued that Mr. Obama lacks a record of bipartisan achievement to back up his calls for healing partisan rifts in Washington and getting things done. That issue was underscored this week when, in a speech on the judiciary, Mr. McCain contrasted his own willingness to vote for President Bill Clinton’s judicial nominees with Mr. Obama’s votes against President Bush’s judicial nominees, including Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr."

The DNC has released a memo boasting about the turnout at all of this year’s Democratic contests. “During this election season nearly 35 million people have come out to support our Democratic candidates, and an estimated 3.5 million new voters have been added to the national voter rolls,” the memo reads. “From 2004 to 2008, for all states for which comparable data was available, Democratic turnout increased by significant margins—no state saw a decrease for Democrats and many states saw turnout increasing by thousands of percentage points. Turnout increases ranged from 18 percent in Arkansas to an astronomical 2,549 percent in Kansas.”

More: “In contrast, comparing 2008 Republican turnout to the last contested Republican primary in 2000, Republican turnout either stayed relatively stagnant or decreased. Sinking turnout throughout the country for Republicans shows the contrast between Democrats and Republicans this primary season. In fact, for the 30 states for which comparable data is available, 27 of them saw more Democratic than Republican voters this year.”

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Voter turnout is a REAL concern for Republicans.  

Consider that many Republicans are unhappy with their party's nominee, they may stay home.  Combine that with the record Democratic primary voter turnout that we've seen in the past several months, and the GOP has some real troubles brewing for November.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Turnout is definitely an asset to the Dems this year.  At least it should be if they play their cards right (and work their butts off like they have been doing).

Yes, at some point the Dems have to marshall GE arguments against McCain.  If we could turn our attention for a moment to the Old Guy, maybe we could really move forward in moving this Country ahead.  Instead the forces continue that have us beating up on each other.  Our own worst enemy.

The voting against Roberts for SC Chief Justice, somehow I don't think that's a winning argument among independents.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  I hope he keeps talking judges and court appointments.  That's a winning issue for the Dem side.

Obama for our best future.
We're not afraid of you, John, "my friend".

Your wife, "Barbie", says you won't delve into negative attacks and if you're stuck with the issues you will get stuck *ON* the issues!

"I think you could argue that Americans overall are better off, because we have had a pretty good prosperous time, with low unemployment and low inflation and a lot of good things have happened. A lot of jobs have been created." - Sen. John McCain

BRING ON MCSAME!!!!

Obama '08!
And so it begins...

Frank
Chicago
Obama '08
We dems need to respect McCain's candidacy. If we take the attitude that the Clinton campaign did, by discounting our competition, and counting our chickens before they hatch, we will pay the heavy price always levied on the arrogant.
I'm a 56 year old white guy with a 2 year degree making <$50k. I wholeheartedly support Barack Obama. It is my opinion that he is our best hope of real change in how things are done in Washington, DC. I feel he is less beholdin to special interests than Hillary. That said, I want to pledge to vote for the DEMOCRATIC candidate in Novemeber, be it Barack or Hillary. Either one is a FAR better option than what McCain represents, which is a continuation of the failed policies of George Bush & the neo-cons. I'm calling on one Hillary suppoter to match my pledge. Let's get a Democrat in the White House and work together to take back OUR country. Thank you.
The "respect it deserves" would be a refreshing change It is possible the general election could be an actual contest based on issues if the candidates are allowed to run a the type they both claim to want. It would be great if the "media" were to report in a fair and impartial manner as opposed to the stuff everyone has become totally disenchanted with in these primaries. Don't hold out too much hope, it is after all every rating number that counts so much more than the future of this country.
The days when Christians, even Evangelical Christians, vote as a block are over.  The Supreme Court is conservative enough. Parents who listened to James Dobson found out their kids had minds of their own and that it was wrong to try to control even the thoughts in their brains.  Evangelical leaders like Ralph Reed were found in bed with the likes of Abrahamof.  David Kuo (Beliefnet) who worked in Bush's Whitehouse writes about the cynicism with which religious leaders were handled. Evangelicals had eight years of a conservative presidency in which to affect policy and effect change. Now, if I am an example, we are ready to revisit Christianity on the left as exemplified by Jim Wallis (Sojourners). Turned off by the properity gospel, the escalation and deception in Iraq, the ethnocentrism, the disregard for the environment and the poor, we are ready to vote for Barack Obama, who appears to be a fine Christian brother. We have raised children who, if they have an unplanned pregnancy, will not have to hide it.  They can live through it a la Juno.  I am an evangelical for Obama '08. I usrge others to join me.  Hermine in mid-state PA
As one Democrat noted, if Sen. Obama were nominated, his acceptance address would be the night of Aug. 28 -- the 45th anniversary of civil-rights leader Martin Luther King's ‘I Have A Dream’ speech."


That would be so symbolic ! Wow....history in the making, BEAUTIFUL
The "respect it deserves" would be a refreshing change It is possible the general election could be an actual contest based on issues if the candidates are allowed to run a the type they both claim to want. It would be great if the "media" were to report in a fair and impartial manner as opposed to the stuff everyone has become totally disenchanted with in these primaries. Don't hold out too much hope, it is after all every rating number that counts so much more than the future of this country.
The media knows its ratings will tank now that they have declared the race over.  The only polls to watch now would be the Hillary supporters going over - in mass to MCCain - he is a much better candidate than obama can ever "hope" to be - too bad the media pushed the stronger one out.
I am a 58 yr old white female, disabled, and for the first time in my life have been able to watch all that is being said, and I want Barack as my president. As for McCain, he does not deserve anymore, or any less, than the boys he sent to Iraq.  These same boys cannot get McCain to sign a GI Bill to help them. I am so sick of hearing about McCain's war stories, ask him what he said about the USA, because he is NO different than the 30,000 that are injured now, and cannot get their medicine! This country does not need, nor can it afford, another war monger and "war hero". Please, don't reduce the meaning of the word. My friend, vote for Barack!
There will be no doubt, MCCAIN will be the next President! The DNC is a crapped out deplorable gathering of losers. But, what would be expected with people who have no concept of the future. You can not buy the White House! According to the Clinton's ""you can"". Don't ask and being what """IS""!
republicans made a concerted effort to knock out clinton..tell obama to stop whining over indianna...we gave him virginia!
Even the Republicans know who the nominee will be.  Everyone's being realistic except Clinton and her Clintonistas.  Deal with reality, Hil!  It's not all about your ego and hungry ambition.
JohnnyU is what the Democrats need to hear right now.  He supports one candidate over the other but would vote for either when it comes to the general election.  JohnnyU, I respect you for that.  I hope more people do what you mentioned here.

As for the turn out, who ever wins the Democrat's nomination must have a massive organization that gets people to the correct poll on election day.  There must be the massive turn out or it will be a great sounding campaign all for nothing.  
McCain will clean Obama's clock abd this democrat will help him

I cannot believe that Obama has been able to fool so many people.


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