First thoughts: Does Hillary play nice?
Posted: Thursday, May 08, 2008 9:19 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Does Hillary play nice? The big question if Clinton stays in the race is this: Just how will she campaign? Yesterday, there were no negative TV ads or attack mailers. But Clinton did stress that she can win the general, implying that Obama might not be able to. "I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she told USA Today, citing her support with white working-class voters. It's comments like that one that might drive more supers toward Obama pretty quickly. Why? Because they know the math, but they don't want her to spend three weeks making a case that Obama can't win. It will only weaken him. Here’s what Obama backer Chris Dodd said yesterday, per NBC’s Ken Strickland. "You're going to be asking a bunch of people [in West Virginia] to vote against somebody who's likely to be your nominee a few weeks later? And turn around and ask the very same people a few weeks later to reverse themselves and now vote for [Obama] on election day?"
*** A signal to superdelegates? Yesterday in West Virginia, Hillary said: "I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee." Was that a signal to superdelegates -- telling them that if you want me out of the race, come out and endorse Obama? In a way, it seemed she was almost daring supers to come out and endorse Obama. Yesterday, four did (see below), but it was just four. It that a sign of how Democrats are still afraid to be against the Clintons? Take a look at that list of undeclared supers. How many of them want to be able to always claim to the Clintons, "Hey, we were never against ya?" Of course, the Clintons will know who wasn't with them, so we're not sure what these undeclared supers will be buying by staying silently for Obama.
*** Bill’s kill rate: As we and others noted in the build-up to Tuesday’s contests, Bill Clinton worked his tail off campaigning for his wife. According to NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, Bill famously did more than 50 campaign stops in North Carolina – all told, they encompassed a whopping 41 of the state's 100 counties. BUT: Only 18 of those counties went for Hillary Clinton. (The former president actually spent more than one long day campaigning in a string of towns, which all eventually went for Obama and by no small margin either.) For her part, Hillary Clinton did 22 stops in the Tar Heel State, for a total of fifteen counties. But she won only THREE of the counties she visited (Gastonia, Iredell, and Henderson). But where she did win, she won by a wide margin. Of the counties in her column where she or her husband campaigned in North Carolina, her AVERAGE margin of victory was almost 20 points. What about Indiana? The former president hit 35 of the state's counties during his visits to the state. His wife won all but eight.
*** Deal or no deal? Everything we're hearing is that a deal over Florida and Michigan could be cut in the next few days. The Obama campaign apparently realizes they have plenty of room to give. The hurdle isn't Clinton and Obama anymore, though; it is folks in the DNC who believe those two recalcitrant states still need to be punished in some form, so states realize there are consequences to doing this in 2012. The latest offer from Michigan is a 69-59 split, with supers going however they want. The two state parties don't want to be halved, meaning their delegate votes become .5, a la Democrats Abroad. But it's clear to us that DNC types want some flesh on this issue. Many hate the idea of Florida and Michigan getting full delegations simply because now it appears their delegations won't make a difference in the process.
*** That’s some price tag: How do we know the superdelegate story has gotten absurd? When superdelegates begin selling their vote for $20 million. Per a report, California superdelegate Steven Ybarra is putting up his support for that amount. “Ybarra wants every cent of the $20 million to go toward registering and educating eligible Mexican-American voters… He thinks his own party is crazy for not aggressively pursuing the Mexican-American vote especially with such a large Mexican-American population in the southwest.”
*** Team Edwards climbing aboard? Today, word is out that Edwards manager David Bonior is officially endorsing Obama. What about his former boss? Well, John Edwards will be on TODAY tomorrow. Will we see an endorsement from him? Also of note, Elizabeth Edwards is testifying on Capitol Hill today. We're sure some reporter will get her to comment on whether Clinton should stay or go and we're sure Edwards has an opinion about it.
*** The delegate drip: Obama picked up four superdelegates to Clinton’s net of one yesterday. George McGovern is not a superdelegate, but Obama did pick up a switcher, a Virginia DNC member. Here are the counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422; SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5-260; OVERALL: 1,848-1.695.5. The superdelegate count is the closest it has ever been. Remember that on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, Clinton had a 90-delegate advantage, per our count. Obama is 177 from the Magic Number of 2,025. There are 261.5 undeclared superdelegates. And there are still two delegates from Indiana and five from North Carolina to be allocated.
*** On the trail: Clinton holds rallies in Charleston, WV and Sioux Falls, SD and a town hall in Oregon; McCain appears live with Regis and Kelly, raises money in New Jersey, and attends the Time 100 Gala; and Obama is in DC, where he meets with Democratic superdelegates and raises money. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns in West Virginia.
Countdown to West Virginia: 5 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 180 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 257 days
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