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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Delegate fight: Super watch

Posted: Friday, May 09, 2008 9:31 AM by Domenico Montanaro

“Rep. Donald Payne (D-10th Dist.), a New Jersey superdelegate who had been supporting Hillary Clinton for president, has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama. ‘After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs," Payne told The Star-Ledger for today's editions. It was ‘one of the most difficult decisions I have made,’ Payne said. ‘I've really been mulling it over for quite a while."

Also, Obama's trip to Oregon got off to a good start before he even arrived. Congressman Peter DeFazio, a superdelegate, says he will support the Illinois senator. That moves Obama one small step closer to presidential nomination.

Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney sided with Clinton, who won his very conservative district.

The Wall Street Journal says some supers haven't come out for Obama because of a fear of "backlash at home." The paper writes, "Many of the politicians sitting on the fence are from conservative states or mostly white, rural districts, where Sen. Obama has had the least success. Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, is expected to face a tough re-election fight in the fall and hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate. Despite her neutrality, the Republican Party has been airing an advertisement on YouTube that poses the question of whether she will endorse Sen. Obama. The ad transposes her picture with his picture and overlays it with a muddy recording of a speech in which he described small-town and working-class voters as ‘bitter.’” 

The Washington Post reports, "[B]ehind the scenes, his campaign worked with a light touch to win over uncommitted superdelegates and allies of Clinton, mindful of not appearing  overconfident and of the fact that they would need the backing of the candidate, her husband and their supporters in the fall.”

“With numerous prominent Democrats believed to be waiting in the wings to endorse his candidacy, Obama appears poised to win the pledged delegates and superdelegates he will need to claim the Democratic nomination as early as May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon vote. But although he appeared to lock down his lead on Tuesday with a strong win in North Carolina and a narrow loss in Indiana, he won only two new superdelegate endorsements yesterday, from Reps. Rick Larsen (Wash.) and Brad Miller (N.C.). Many other unaligned lawmakers said they are likely to remain on the sidelines for the time being, in deference to Clinton."

More: "Obama advisers said a number of Democratic lawmakers are ready to sign on but want to speak with Clinton before making the leap. ‘The writing is on the wall. They think he's the nominee, so there's no reason to rush,’ said one prominent uncommitted Democrat, referring to other lawmakers in the same situation. ‘Then you don't have to offend anybody. The voters will issue their verdict soon enough.’”

“Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), a former presidential candidate, said he will remain neutral. ‘I'm hopeful that there's some accommodation pretty soon,’ he said carefully. ‘The sooner the better.’ Sen. Ken Salazar (Colo.) said he will hang back, as well. ‘Let it play out,’ he said. Sen. Mary Landrieu (La.) said she will continue to ‘contemplate things’ over the next few weeks.”

“Clinton supporters also urged restraint. ‘It's three more weeks, okay?’ said Sen. Maria Cantwell (Wash.). ‘We want to have a very united party in November, and I take Senator Obama at his word when he says he doesn't want to do anything to tell her to get out of the race.’”

The New York Times reports Obama met privately with Speaker Nancy Pelosi at the DNC yesterday. "Behind the scenes, there were new discussions between Mr. Obama and the party leadership. Senior Democratic officials said he met with Speaker Nancy Pelosi when their paths crossed at Democratic Party headquarters. They had spoken by telephone earlier in the week. Ms. Pelosi and Mrs. Clinton have had no known recent talks."

"On Thursday, however, Obama argued that he could lock up the race sooner -- by May 20 when Kentucky and Oregon vote. ‘If, at that point, we have the majority of pledged delegates,’ he said, ‘we can make a pretty strong claim that … we've won. He spoke on NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams.’”

Could a bunch of Supers come out to put Obama over the top on May 20 as well?

Politico's Smith and Parnes report that Clinton tried to get some undeclared supers to commit to her privately without having to risk a public break with Obama. "A Clinton staffer acknowledged Thursday that the campaign was in the process of  ‘counting up’ superdelegates because, ‘at the end of the day, we have to know where our numbers are.’ ‘We do have some private supporters,’ the staffer said. “[But] for their own political purposes, they can’t be on record.’”

“The staffer conceded that lawmakers could, in theory, ‘privately back’ Clinton then ultimately support Obama but said: ‘We need to track where we are, and there’s no other way.’”

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the game is OVER!! clinton must salvage the little integrity she is remaining with. Let her leave gracefully. Anyone who watched John Edwards can tell he has endorsed Obama - just waiting for Hillary to step down.
Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney sided with Clinton, who won his very conservative district.
****************************************************

Clinton didn't win my county - or our neighboring county - and Carney is my Rep.

Oh well, it really makes no difference at this point.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
HRC supporters who say they will never vote for Obama are really Racist Republicans, there is no place for them in the Democratic party. I am for Obama all the way.
I have been a Clinton supporter from the beginning, but I really think its time to fold now and bring the party together. Let's go Democrats, get the WH back.
A lot of arguments have been presented about which demographic group of voters is most important. All the voters are important, and any other claim is, at best, silly.

Special notice is owed to the younger voters. They are bright, talented and informed. They are embracing and contributing the best of ideas of the Democratic Party. They are declining the destructive approaches that have or should have been left to the other party.

The future of the Democratic Party looks bright. Time to embrace it?
Clinton has lost perspective. She doesn't realize that she and her base are the ones that SD do not want to publicly offend. Anyone "privately" backing her is just intimidated to tell her the truth.

The rest of the super-d's need to endorse...one way or the other.  Get some guts and do it.  Sen. Obama has won and letting Mrs. Clinton down easily as he's trying to do may just be the worst thing possible.  She's incapable of being anything but divisive.  The party needs you to act now.
Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, is expected to face a tough re-election fight in the fall and hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate. Despite her neutrality, the Republican Party has been airing an advertisement on YouTube that poses the question of whether she will endorse Sen. Obama. The ad transposes her picture with his picture and overlays it with a muddy recording of a speech in which he described small-town and working-class voters as ‘bitter.’”

This could have been the part of the Nuclear option The Clinton's are going to play when Hillary made her remarks yesterday.
If the superdelegates aren't able to be "above the frey", then why do they have them?

The problem isn't that I can't understand why SDs (especially elected ones from districts) feel the need to endorse the candidate that won their district.  I can understand.  But with the myriad of different reasons that SDs give for their reasoning, how is that process (having the SDs) fair?  What, then, is the purpose for them, if the elected ones are just going to vote as their district went...

What a dilemma, huh...
Those that waited and missed their opportunity lose sense with the need to unite and move on...
Running the course just pollutes the value and sends a clear message to the GOP the DEM's really don't have a strong leader...
Dollars waiting on nickels...
Haste makes waste. It is a sign of poor judgment to be impatient. Let's chill.
Ah, the Repugnant Slime Machine kicks into high gear, accusing Landrieu of supporting Obama without any evidence at all.  Way to lie, you Republican Slimeballs!!
After Hillary "Republican" Clinton's blatantly racist remarks the past few days I'm surprised that any black superdelegate of hers hasn't switched to Obama.  She is trying to say she has more support amongst the same clueless crowd of poorly educated white bigots that got us two terms of Bush/Cheney.  If she had such a broad coalition of support then why is she losing this primary?  Just more Clinton lies that need to be silenced now and forever.

Go Obama 08/12!
Democrats gave up on a group of voters years ago referred to as "Dixiecrats" Socially conservative, white middle of the roaders that the party could count on in local,state and national elections through out the South. They didn't die out-they became "Regan-democrats" or in North Carolina "Jessecrats"-supporters of Jesse Helms. This election is probably going to see a backlash from this group. The Sad thing is that the group hasn't changed over the past fifty years-the Democrat party has. Walks like far left, smells like far left must be far left.
Why does she not take the hint?  At least be graceful dont go out sounding like she is race baiting. I think she should continue by all means but she has to tone down her rhetoric this has not been totally good for the party. When you see people making racial statements it is really saddening. I really think it is time for all true blue Dems unite for our common goal to defeat John McBush this fall. I am going to do my best not to get upset when I see the hurtful comments made by her supporters. I will say this and leave it at this. When Bill Clinton ran for president both times he had 90% of the AA vote behind him same for Kerry . So are AA racist because when we like a candidate we support them? Cant people understand that if Hillary had shown to have her own personality and that Bill (a guy that AA truly loved ) had not been so dismisive of our vote. She might would have had it.So instead of bashing AA admit it, Obama has a great dynamic about him. It was more a coalition of everybody in and around his campaign. Time to unite behind the Democratic Candidate.
The DNC’s ‘Rules Committee’ offers Hillary a significant advantage  --- 13 of its members have openly endorsed her, and just 8 are declared Obama backers.  

EXAMPLE: (A Committee Chairman is Alexis Herman, Labor secretary under President Clinton;  another is Harold Ickes, the top advisor to Hillary’s campaign who is in-charge of stealing superdelegates and, another is a member of the Michigan DNC.)

The ‘Rules Committee’ has wide latitude concerning Florida and Michigan.  It could uphold the rules and punishment it and both candidates agreed to initially, or it could --- seat the entire delegation from each state,  split the delegations in half,  or even seat all of the super delegates but only some of the elected delegates.

This is the REAL REASON Hillary is staying in the race.  Hillary fully expects that the ‘Rules Committee’ with its almost 2-to-1 ratio of declared Hillary-to-Obama supporters will go along with whatever she wants regarding Florida & Michigan delegates.  She believes, and probably rightly so, that the ‘Rules Committee’ will seat as many of the delegates from Florida & Michigan as Hillary needs to obtain the 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination.

IT WILL BE GRAND THEFT BY MANIPULATION. OfF THE RULES
COMMITTEE. --- A CLINTON SLEEZY TRICK.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thank you Rep. Payne....I have cast my vote for you in past elections and will again.  This is just plain commen sense.    
I hope Senator Obama's strategy of letting Clinton gracefully leave the race will work.  I personally don't see it happening before she opens enough wounds to kill the party's chances in November.  Thunder thighs in my opinion doesn't have a graceful bone in her body, but then I'm just a white Catholic working class guy...who happens to be for Obama.
I think it's time for the Super Delegates to get off the fence and Hillaries Super Delegates to support Barack Obama.  Hillaries money is dried up and now she making white vs black statements which can be constrewed as racists and should be.  If Hillary won't quit then the Super Delegates should all show her the door out!  It's time to quit Hillary!!!!!!!!
The writing is most definitely on the wall, and if you will have a look at the original "writing on the wall", the writing did not mean "this is how it will be if something doesn't change", it mean finished now; weighed in the balances and found wanting.

Clinton's, show your leadership and not your bitterness.  In 8 years, it will be your turn.  I'd look forward to that.
Thanks, Mr. Carney, for throwing your superdelegate vote away, just so you don't have to face your constituents.

Where's my comment?
Supers better fear  backlash  at home.   If my congressman supports Obama, then he loses my vote. Plain and simple.

Obama must not be POTUS--he would be bad for America.
It's time the superdelegates removed the fence polls from their backsides and do what they were chosen to do - make a decision. They can put an end to this, but fearing repercussions, they won't do that. I think they need to look at the fact that their fear of making a decision brings their re-electability into question. Who wants a politician that can’t make a decision even with most of the facts already in and a clear choice to be made? If they can't take a little criticism for their choices, then they should not be in politics.
Got a third today- John Gage, president of the American Federation of Government Employees ans a Super, said he would vote for him as his union endorsed Obama.
Yes, the SDs better think about the future. In my state which overwhelming chose Clinton, about half the SDs have pledged to Obama.  I have their names. I will vote against them in EVERY election I have the chance.  Why did our state even bother to have a primary?
“The staffer conceded that lawmakers could, in theory, ‘privately back’ Clinton then ultimately support Obama but said: ‘We need to track where we are, and there’s no other way.’”

PATHETIC COMMENT.
Hillary Clinton has private supporters aka Paid super delegates. Did anyone knows how much they are getting paid?
Come on Edwards.  Endorse Hillary.  Obama is unelectable.  
if Clinton wants to continue until the end of the primaries - no problem as long as she focuses on the issues and she and her supporters dont race or gender bait. The primary and general elections should be about the real issues. If the Clinton campaign continues as it has since Tuesday, then shame on them - she will be proving her distractors right - that she cares only about herself and not about the party or the American people.
All I can say is the undeclared super delegates are COWARDS!!!! No wonder nothing ever gets done in Washington.
Come on, superdelegates. Get some backbone and take a stand to back Barack Obama as the nominee and help to get this painful process over. Having Hillary make comments about being the most electable and her comment about "hardworking WHITE voters" are not helpful in uniting the Democrats and winning the White House.
I don't trust Senator Clinton.  She has proven that she'll do anything to win this election.  Too many of the Supers are loyal to the Clinton's even in her emminent defeat.  They are so loyal that they would risk hurting the party's chances in November rather than hurting Senator Clinton by ending this unneccessary fight now.  I believe that if Senator Obama agrees to the wrong split of the Mich and Fla delegates many of the loyal Clinton Supers would side with Senator Clinton to try in steal the nomination from him.  Senator Obama shouldn't agree to anything except seating the delegates.
First Read, please add in Rick Larsen, WA State, Barack!!
Msnbc why are you not really talking about and giving the racialy recorded comments that Hillary Clinton made about HARD WORKING AMERICANs Being White as you did with the Bitter recorded remarks of Obama??????? ARE we not all hard working in this country. OF all races and genders,immagrants Rich, poor, educated, uneducated, gay, straight,old young,handicapped,
Billary,

Stop!!! Go home!!! Bow out gracefully......And stop with the racists comments. So tacky and shameful.
Msnbc why are you not giving significant coverage to the recorded statements of Hillary Clinton ""HARD WORKING AMERICAN WHITES. AS you did with the recorded BITTER remarks of Obama??? Were these not racialy devisive words. Obama stated what he meant to say. Why are you not asking Hillary what she meant to say. We are all hard working in this country, of all races,cultures, poor,rich,educated uneducated,gay straight,immagrants non-immagrants,handicapped,blue collar,corporate,small business.
I am a AA R.N. nurse who I might add has worked 16 hours a day seven days a week to help out my family and give my kids a good education to pursue the oppurtunities in this great nation. How dare Hillary say that Hard working Americans are white as if anyone other than white is not.
HRC supporters who say they will never vote for Obama are really Racist Republicans, there is no place for them in the Democratic party. I am for Obama all the way.
patty, sd, ca

OMG patty is that really you! Good for you sis, no lets work together for OBAMA '08!
God bless you patty!
I am an AA R.N. who has infact at times worked 16 hours a day seven days a week to give my kids a good education to pursue there dreams in this great country we call America. How dare Hillary say that Hard Working Americans are White. As if anyone other then white is hard working.
Let her finish... She only makes herself look bad and some of her followers look ignorant... Most will vote the right way, some have family issues deeper than any election. Let them be,,, for they are the minority. At stake is the Supreme Court, most people aren't ready to give up their constitutional rights just because Barack is Black. This too will pass...
Msnbc I would like to know how Latinos feel about Hillary's statements about Hardworking Americans being White.
To everyone who keeps repeating the "Obama is unelectable" mantra: HRC has a negative approval rating that is very very high. While almost half of the people "love" her, more than half appear to dislike her alot. It takes only a little logical thought to realize SHE would have been very nearly UNELECTABLE! As an idependent I would never have voted for her (I did not vote for him)
A "TRUE" Democrat is one who will support the Democratic nominee regardless or race, creed, or color.  Those of you saying you will not vote for Hillary or Obama if your chosen candidate is not the nominee are not focusing on the HUGE PICTURE.  The writing is on the wall, why settle for another Bush named McCain in the White House?  Let us UNITE together as Democrats and put a DEMORACTIC President in the White House!!!
Dems have to unite we can't afford four more years of Bush. Hill and Bill have to wake up stop tring to destroy the dem party. Stop with the racialy devisive comments. We are all hard working americans, Black, White,Hispanic,Rich,Poor,Educated,The uneducated,we are all Hard Working Americans. Hill and Bill shame on you both for your.Bill black people backed you when all most everybody else treated you like poison, remember.Mccain will be bush all over again i think the clintons would rather see the "right" back in again rather than see OBAMA as president.
Does MSNBC have an ethics/professional committee? Your Live Vote today is a perfect example? Are you for Obama or are you for Obama? You are so blatant. Your entire coverage of the election has been so obvious that I guess you assume you can get away with it. Obama supporters are elitists, they use the race card to the fullest. If you are for Clinton then you must be a racist. We aren't and we resent your snobbery. If we don't vote for Obama it will be a vote against these snobs and the tabloid propaganda media. I could have easily voted for Obama in the beginning, as could many of the Clinton supporters I talk to. However the media and the exposer to the Obama supporters that think they are somehow more enlightened changed my mind. The power of the media has become the obvious problem with the country. Think about it. Politians have to be beholden to them so they can slant stories, not cover stories, not be too tough in interviews or be too tough. They cover the debates and then critique them.  They are the biggest corporation and threat to our democracy. So who has the "insiders" in their camp?
DEAR DEMOCRATS,

WHAT A SHAME, YOU GUY'S CAN'T MAKE A DECISION. HOW THE HELL ARE YOU GOING TO TULE THE COUNTRY? THAT WAY THE REPUBLICANS ARE BETTER MAKING DECISIONS. YOU DEMOCRATS ARE HERE TO SOLVE PROBLEMS LIKE THIS. THE WINNER IS IN FRONT OF YOU, YOU CANT CHOOSE THE ONE. ANY PARTY LEADER HAS SOME SORT OF PEOPLE NOT VOTING FOR THE WINNER THAT'S ALWAYS THE FACT, IF ALL AMERICANS VOTE FOR ONE, WHAT IS YOUR JOB? AND WHY THE HELL WE HAVE ELECTIONS FOR? HILLI HAS TO GET BACK BEHIND SENATOR OBAMA AND MAKE THIS WORK. SHE HAS TO CONVINCE WHO EVER VOTE FOR HER, SHOULD GET BACK BEHIND SEN. OBAMA AND FIGHT THE OPPOSITION. OR SHE SHOULD LEAVE THE PARTY ALTOGETHER
To  patty, sd, ca

Didn't you move to the Reppublican Party Wed?
I suspect that many superdelegates are just going to wait until most of the delegates in the remaining primaries have been resolved.  I see no need to rush them until June 15.  Its the middle of the month.  The last of the primaries end on June 3, and by then all of the counts should be finished.  Makes sense to me right now.


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