The end game: The scenarios
Posted: Friday, May 09, 2008 9:33 AM by Domenico Montanaro
The Washington Post's Balz writes, "Party strategists sketch out at least three scenarios for a possible end to the Clinton campaign. The cleanest envisions Clinton suddenly deciding the race is over and, for the good of the party, deciding to suspend her candidacy. That could happen after next week's primary in West Virginia, which she is expected to win easily, or the following week, when she is expected to win Kentucky and Obama is favored to win Oregon."
"The messy scenario would see Clinton continuing her campaign all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August -- arguing that she would be the stronger nominee against Sen. John McCain -- and mounting challenges before the party's credentials committee over the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates."
"At this point, neither the clean nor messy endgame seems likely -- to strategists in either campaign or to other Democrats watching the race. Clinton vowed to stay in the race but also has pledged that, if it is clear Obama has the nomination sewn up, to support him and work to unify the party and defeat McCain. That suggests the third scenario, that the race will not end until June 3 or soon after. Given what she said Wednesday about staying in until there is a nominee, and given the likelihood of rapid movement of superdelegates to Obama once the primaries are over (if not before), Clinton could declare the race over at that point.”
“A fourth scenario envisions Clinton being forced suddenly to suspend her campaign because she is out of money. Already she and her husband have lent the campaign more than $11 million. In addition, the campaign as of April had reported debts of about $10 million."
The Los Angeles Times notes how there's no clear path to victory for Clinton, nor a clear path to the exit. “One Clinton aide said Thursday: ‘There is a profound sadness’ among the staff. ‘I don't think anyone sees that there's a clear path to victory here.’”
“Richard Schiffrin, a national finance co-chairman for Clinton, is scheduled to meet with other fundraisers and her next week. Schiffrin said he would tell her: "Let's look at the situation as it exists and think about whether there's a credible path to the nomination, and if there isn't, what's Plan B?’”
“He added: ‘The bottom line is she's going to make a decision that in my view will be in the best interests of the party and the country.’”
The New York Times’ editorial page, which has endorsed Clinton but has been equally critical of the tone of her campaign, fires this warning shot at Team Clinton: “We believe it is her right to stay in the fight and challenge Senator Barack Obama as long as she has the desire and the means to do so. That is the essence of the democratic process. But we believe just as strongly that Mrs. Clinton will be making a terrible mistake - for herself, her party and for the nation - if she continues to press her candidacy through negative campaigning with disturbing racial undertones. We believe it would also be a terrible mistake if she launches a fight over the disqualified delegations from Florida and Michigan.”
More: “Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that ‘Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.’ She added: ‘There’s a pattern emerging here.’ Yes, there is a pattern - a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.”
Campaigning in Oregon yesterday, Clinton said, per NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli: “People say to me all the time, ‘Well are you going to keep going?’ Well yes, of course, I’m going to keep going. And why am I going to keep going? I’m going to keep going because you keep going… That’s what you do, if you believe that the future can be better than the present. I believe that with all my heart. As I look out at all of you, I know, we can turn this country around.”
Memoli also notes that, given its mail-in ballot, Oregon is a much different primary contest. Voters already have their ballots in hand, and by some estimates, most have already voted. For those still waiting, Hillary Clinton has some ideas. “I hope that you’ll really pay attention to this campaign,” she said. “Those of you who’ve already made up your mind to support me, send it in. If you think you’ve made up your mind to support my opponent, wait a while. Keep thinking. Keep listening. Keep watching. Keep hoping for that debate, which would really make it a very clear choice that you’d be able to see as we talked about the issues that affect Oregon.”
Clinton also made note of the fact that she’s accepted an invitation from the state party to debate, and even offered to do so on short notice. “They asked would we be willing to debate, I said absolutely, any time anywhere,” she said. “I heard that my opponent just changed his schedule, he’s going to be in Portland tomorrow. I’m going to be in Portland tomorrow. I’ll meet anywhere for a debate… And I’m sure we can set up so that the people who asked the questions, you know, asked questions that were substantive about where we stand on the issues.”
WSJ lead editorial is headlined the "Clinton Divorce": "Truth be told, this was always a marriage more of convenience than love. The party's progressives never did like Bill Clinton's New Democrat ways, but after Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis they needed his epic political gifts to win back the White House. They hated him for their loss of Congress in 1994, but they tolerated Dick Morris and welfare reform to keep the presidency in 1996. The price was that they had to put their ethics in a blind Clinton trust. Whitewater and the missing billing records, Webb Hubbell, cattle futures and "Red" Bone, the Lincoln Bedroom, Johnny Chung and the overseas fund-raising scandals, Paula Jones and lying under oath, Monica and the meaning of ‘is.’ Democrats, or all of them this side of Joe Lieberman and Pat Moynihan, defended the Clintons through it all. Everything was dismissed as a product of the ‘Republican attack machine,’ an invention of the ‘Clinton haters,’ or ‘just about sex.’
The gloating editorial ends: “It took 10 years, but you might say Democrats have finally voted to impeach."
