First thoughts: Where's the flood?
Posted: Friday, May 09, 2008 9:35 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008, Delegates
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Where's the super flood? Since Tuesday, Obama has picked up eight superdelegates to Clinton’s net of one. But that’s not quite the superdelegate flood many had expected after North Carolina and Indiana. What’s going on here? Part of it seems to be that some Dem supers are still waiting for the dust to settle from Tuesday’s aftermath. Also, there does seem to be the thought that a quick rush to Obama could end up embarrassing a candidate who’s still campaigning hard in West Virginia, Oregon, and beyond. But there’s also some concern that Obama could be a problem for superdelegates representing conservative and rural districts. See Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney’s endorsement of Clinton today. The fact is this Dem primary race went on long enough and became divisive enough that there are supers who could never endorse Clinton OVER Obama and vice versa. So until Clinton exits, we may not see a super flood. Also, Clinton's camp may have successfully convinced some to wait and see if a 25-30-point Clinton win in West Virginia shakes things up at all.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on John Edwards' interviews on "TODAY" and "Morning Joe."***
Where we stand: In addition to the two congressional superdelegates (Reps. Brad Miller of NC and Rick Larsen of WA) he picked up yesterday, Obama added two more overnight (Reps. Peter
DeFazio of OR and Donald
Payne of NJ). Payne had previously backed Clinton, so that takes one away from her total, but she made that up with the backing this morning of Rep. Chris
Carney of PA. Here’s the count: PLEDGED: Obama 1590, Clinton 1426; SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 264; TOTAL: Obama 1854, Clinton 1699.5. There are now 257.5 undeclared superdelegates. By the way, if May 20 is indeed the day Obama claims victory (all he needs is about 30 pledged delegates to claim the majority of all pledged delegates awarded), don't expect Obama to give his victory speech in Oregon (the state that will get him most, if not all of those 30 needed delegates). And don't expect the speech to be in Chicago. While the campaign won't say where, start your own pools: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia? That's the quint-fecta we'd bet.
***
And so it begins…: If yesterday was the second unofficial day of the general campaign between Obama and McCain, then it may end up being a lot more contentious than either candidate themselves has claimed. It all started when Obama -- responding to a question about McCain referring to Obama as the candidate that Hamas is supporting -- said this: “For [McCain] to toss out comments like that I think is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination. We don’t need name calling in this debate.” That prompted a response from McCain adviser Mark Salter: “First, let us be clear about the nature of Senator Obama's attack today: He used the words 'losing his bearings' intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue. This is typical of the Obama style of campaigning.” And then the Obama camp fired back: “Clearly losing one’s bearings has no relation to age, given this bizarre rant that Mark Salter just sent out. It’s clear why a candidate offering a third term of George Bush’s disastrous economic policies and failed strategy in Iraq would want to distract and attack.” Salter memos are going to become legendary by the end of this campaign; he's one of the more clever writers in politics today and he doesn't mind getting his hands dirty. The sarcastic wit that's usually buried in his missives will no doubt be the source of more heated back-n-forth exchanges.
*** Obama and Jewish voters: Lost in the Hamas back-and-forth between Obama and Mark Salter was the big push yesterday by Obama to start healing whatever wounds there are between Jewish Democrats and Obama. He attended a DC-celebration of the 60th anniversary of Israel and hit all the correct notes any politician needs to hit to earn the trust of Israel and of Jews who see Israel as their No. 1 one voting issue. If this was a start, it may pay dividends, but if this is all Obama does in his reach out, it won't be good enough. Isn't it likely Obama does a major speech on Israel's security sometime soon in a state, oh, like Florida?
*** Is Clinton playing the race card? That seems to be the conclusion of everyone from Peggy Noonan to the New York Times’ editorial page. This warning by the Times will have a lot of people talking today: “Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that ‘Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.’ She added: ‘There’s a pattern emerging here.’ Yes, there is a pattern -- a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.” Politico's Smith added that Clinton was as blunt as she ever was on the issue of her white support. He speculated that it might not have been an accident, since there are no primaries left with significant African-American electorates.
*** Just asking: So who watched Edwards on TODAY and MORNING JOE this morning and thinks they've figured out whom he voted for in the North Carolina primary? We think we did. Edwards says he's not ready to endorse, but he did say Obama had the best chance to beat McCain because of new voters. And he refused to discuss whether he and Elizabeth voted for the same person. Anyone who has spent time with Elizabeth Edwards recently probably thinks they know who SHE voted for in the NC primary as well.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Oregon and Louisville, KY; McCain begins his day with an event in New Jersey and then heads to South Carolina, where he holds a media avail and raises money; and Obama -- in Oregon like Clinton -- holds a town hall in Albany and a rally in Eugene.
Countdown to West Virginia: 4 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 179 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 256 days
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