Delegate fight: Inevitability

Posted: Monday, May 12, 2008 9:15 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, Clinton, Obama, Delegates

This is Clinton's main problem at this point: More and more Democrats are talking about the inevitability of Obama as the nominee. Here’s Harry Reid on ABC yesterday: "Clinton got more of the popular vote, Obama got more of delegates. Why? Because he ran so well in rural Nevada, counties where there are no ethnic minorities at all. He swept those counties....Obama is going to do just fine in rural America just like he did in rural Nevada."

Per the New York Times, Edwards yesterday cautioned that Clinton, by remaining in the race, has to be careful that she’s not damaging the Democratic Party’s chances in the fall. “While Mr. Edwards, a onetime senator from North Carolina, has not endorsed either candidate, he made it clear on the CBS News program ‘Face the Nation’ that he saw little chance that Mrs. Clinton could manage a come-from-behind victory. ‘You can no longer make a compelling case for the math,’ Mr. Edwards said, referring to delegate totals that increasingly favor Mr. Obama. ‘The math is very, very hard for her.’”

Obama campaign strategist David “Axelrod said the campaign, which has overcome Clinton's once-large superdelegate lead [in some counts], will keep up its recent pace of announcing the support of several more each day. But senior Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson, appearing on the same program, rejected the idea that the campaign was over, and hyped Clinton's expected victory in West Virginia tomorrow. ‘If Barack Obama wants Hillary Clinton out of this race, beat her,’ said Wolfson, who also confirmed that the Clinton camp is $20 million in debt.

“‘What Hillary does in the next month is important,’ Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), a one-time senior adviser to former President Bill Clinton, warned last week in Manhattan, per the New York Daily News. “‘If she spends her time contrasting with Sen. McCain, drawing distinctions that help the Democratic Party, that's productive,’ he said. ‘If it's done in another way, that's not productive.’”

Speaking of… The Wall Street Journal takes a look at how both Dems are now focused on hitting McCain a lot more than they are hitting each other.

The Raleigh News & Observer's Christensen makes the case for N.C. being known, historically, as the state that basically put Obama over the top for the Dem nod.

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Comments

Howard Wolfson is just trying to run up his bill. the longer this goes on, the more he gets paid--probably by Obama when Obama graciously agrees to pay off clinton's debts.

the facts (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:21 AM)

Even if she were to figure out a way to come back at this point, what is her claim? It CAN"T be ready on day 1, can it? She took what was a $100 million lead and has run it into the ground to the tune of now being $20 million in the red. by any measure, that is a disaster.

bill, ny (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:23 AM)

um, excuse me? howard wolfson admits that the clinton campaign is $20 million dollars in debt, and THAT's not worthy of its own exploration? why are you treating that news as an afterthought?

sickofitall, philly (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:32 AM)

Senator Clinton cannot raise money, she has lost the inevitability argument that she tried to make.

Money is the key to the General Election. She has failed at that, time for her to quit.

sotiredofignorance (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:32 AM)

Man, $20 million now? She needs a big win in WV to justify the fundraising effort she needs to get out of the red.

I'm guessing she'll swallow most of the $11.6 million she owes herself, and probably cut a deal for partial payment to Penn, but that still leaves her quite a few million behind. And though her advertising has slowed, her spend rate was high even when not advertising - so just hanging on each day has to be costing her an additional half-mil or so.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:38 AM)

Stop this ridiculous speculation on popular vote. That is not the way we nominate a candidate in the democratic party. If popular vote mattered, Al Gore would have been president. I'm sick of the clinton spin. They have no respect for civility or rule, or order or anything democratic. It's just me,me,me. Senator Obama has played the game the right way, and he has won the right way. We want Obama!

Obama for President--No clinton (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:39 AM)

Mr. Wolfson he did beat her he is ahead on all points. The most important point is that he will have the elected delegate lead. As to WV reading some of the disgusting comments coming out of the Democratic party leadership last week( Obama is not an American name and an African American can not win) bodes danger not for Obama but for Clinotn who gave credence to the comments from her statements about hard working white Americans. Play out the primaries but do so on the issues not on race which only hurts Democratic chances in the fall.

Terry, Great Plains (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:40 AM)

"Desperate" Hillary had better heed John Edward's sage advice that she stop her constant bashing of Obama that has proven useless. She has done nothing but help grumpy old McCain with her kitchen sink strategy and she would have done better throwing the kitchen sink at McCain rather than side with him over and over.

Go Obama 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:40 AM)

I am concerned that people continue to say statements to the effect of, "What if 'something happens' to Barack Obama? Given the fact that he is a young, vibrant, and apparently fit man, I do not think that these folks are alluding to an untimely physical demise. Ergo, are the Clintons planning to work behind the scenes to see that these issues regarding WEright and Ayers stay in the news and are amplified in order to keep the DNC worried that he cannot win in November?

Cindi in Louisiana (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:41 AM)

I have been saying that the next few weeks say much more about Clinton and her ambitions than they will about Obama...I actually agree with Chris Matthews on MSNBC this morning when he said that some of us will be watching to see whether Hillary is genuinely supporting Obama over the next few months or basically just giving Obama some lip service sort of support (I'm paraphrasing, I forget what he said exactly).

Is she really tanking Obama for a run at 2012? If so, I think that's a bad miscalculation. If she doesn't support him and continues to bash him, then I think quite a few Dems will remember that in 2012. My desire is not to bash her but I think the level of trust is not very high...and that level of trust is based on how she campaigned since Feb.

Obama for our best future.

Lisa, New Britain, CT Enthusiastically for Obama (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:44 AM)

With any luck and a little foresight on the part of voters in West Virginia, maybe Hillary won't do as well in WV as expected and we can put this one to bed. Last Monday, the polls showed her winning Indiana by 7-10% points (depending on which poll) and she barely squeaked out a win. Let's hope that she doesn't do as well as expected in this one too and that the campaign FINALLY reads the handwriting on the wall!

Kerry, Toledo, OH (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:44 AM)

The only question I have is where did Hillary get more of the popular vote ?? She is losing in every catagory I thought. Came someone explain that one to me?? As far as Super Delegates can you hear that ???
Drip drip drip drip I think they are trying to be classy about it and not just flooding her with the number that says ba by bye. Come on Hillary take the High road and support Obama now.

Brian M De. (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:45 AM)

She's running so that people will donate their hard-earned money to pay her back for her poorly-run campaign.

20 million in debt, and still behind? Her new slogan should be:

"READY TO BE IN DEBT FROM DAY ONE."

And that 3 AM phone call? It's from her creditors. Watch her sponsor some sort of "Debt Relief Act" shortly.

It's a strange way to connect with poor voters, isn't it? "I'M ONE OF YOU. DEEPLY, DEEPLY IN DEBT."

Jay Biggs (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:45 AM)

the dems wil unite. 5 months is enough to do so.

sem, va (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:47 AM)

HRC has yet to play the "I was born a poor black child" card, comming soon. Oh wait, she only has the two "hard-working WHITE American" states of WV and K left. She should have played that card earlier.
How much did she pay her advisors??????? Money, down the political drain.

Hard working WHITE, over 40 for Obama (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:47 AM)

Mr. Wolfosn,

How many times do you want Obama to "beat" Clinton? He's already won twice as many states, more delegates, and more votes. Aren't WV and KY "small states"? According to your campaign a few months, small states didn't matter. STOP TRYING TO CHANGE THE RULES! You are only making her campaign look bad at this point.

Billy, MI (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:48 AM)

I refrain from piling on Hillary, so long as she behaves herself.

donna (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:48 AM)

I never dreamed in High School, that I would come to love math as much as meatloaf!

Hmm Hmm math, gimme more!

auntie (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:49 AM)

What is inevitable is that Obama will not win Florida and so will not win the White House. 27 electoral votes and a huge state of voters completely pissed off at the Democratic Party's wimpiness. Those betrayed primary voters aren't coming back for a democrat in the general election. They don't care about seated delegates, they care about THEIR vote. Even if they did, Obama has not connected with the gigantic Hispanic demographic there and he's having nothing but trouble with the Jewish vote. Dems need the state desperately and the voting public will probably stay home.

Add in Texas for McCain with 34 and Obama's "new electoral map" will be meaningless. California won't be enough.

Consider also how pissed off Michgan voters will be (17 electoral votes) for the same reason as Florida. And who knows how New York, 31 votes and Hillary's base, will go.

Is there a Dem veep other than Hillary who can effect any of this?

And we haven't even seen the 527 Republican smear campaign against Obama yet. Can you say Dukakis?

Margaret, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:50 AM)

Please forgive NC and John Edwards we are admittedly a bunch of losers that pick LOSERS- I mean look at Jesse Helms anyone remember him- LET'S JUST SAY NC MAKES POOR POLITICAL CHOICES!! This time the world will have to live with it not just us NC people. I can live with McCain for 4 years if made thru 8 of W.......

DG in NC (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:50 AM)

Numbers rule!!

ET (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:50 AM)

DG in NC (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:50 AM)

Congratulations NC! You are one fine State! We love You! You will go down in history.

My state, Pa., will go down in infamy as bowling boobs, bringing up the rear.

PA. Voter (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 9:53 AM)

Howard,,,Beat her! More delagates,more states,more pop,vote,more super delagates,by what measure would you and your campaign use.20 million in debt,thats one place where you can claim to be ahead.

jesse St.Paul Minnesota (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:02 AM)

I am a really and truly, hmmm, hard working, hmmm, you know....white American.

Too bad I live in a small (and horror of horrors- please forgive me!!) caucus state where my vote is of NO INTEREST or WORTH or VALUE to the Clintons.

Equally interesting is the fact that I am female and earn less than 55K - I appear to be her demographic.

OOOPS - I forgot...I'm not under educated.

Oh and I'm not taking any sniper fire either ;)

feeling better in Ne (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:10 AM)

Good morning Chuck "CLINTON" Todd. Your words prove my point.

Bob, Chicago

Bob, Chicago (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:12 AM)

Mr. Wolfson, tell us about the book deal MSNBC reports you are closing on! I say tough talk for someone about to jump the proverbial ship. Mr. Wolfson come clean; tell the truth why Hillary will win West Virginia by large margins on Tuesday. I guess being disingenuous is prerequisite for membership on the Clinton campaign team.

Charles, Ft. Walton Beach, FL (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:16 AM)

Obama has not yet campaigned in Florida, so don't count him out. I believe it is still an uphill battle for any Democrat, with another popular Republican governor who could possibly be on the Republican ticket. This is yet another reason why Obama is a better candidate than Hillary. He can win without winning Florida, she can't. I don't know about the rest of America, but I'm not anxious to put the countries fate into the hands of Florida again.

I believe whole heartedly that the American people should push for sweeping election reform. No more electoral college, it should be popular vote. Every American citizens vote should count equally. Information on the candidates is widely available, and so there is no reason to continue using this antiquated system for choosing a president. I believe that if we get a democratic president and a larger majority in Congress, this reform could actually happen. I fear the Republicans would not agree (afterall Bush lost the popular vote to Gore handily).

Kelly (from Pittsburgh) (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:16 AM)

The rationale for and scenarios by which Sen Clinton remains in the race can be complicated, to say the least, made all the moreso by no one fully comprehending her motivations. Assuming she truly thinks anything can happen (it can but rational thought says this is remote), there is one scenario I have not seen discussed- to wit, she stays "positive", waits for a decision in FL and MI and even waits beyond if need be, awaiting a potential change in circumstance all the way to the convention. By staying "positive" ad infinitum from here forward, she may feel she can forestall a final clarion call for her withdrawal. Staying in the game, suited up to use Bill's term, would in this case be the objective, akin to a non-flagrant fouling strategy in basketball late in the fourth quarter when behind. From a party perspective, however, staunching the blood-letting is not a strategy that is sustainable beyond early June, or so many believe. If they don't wish this scenario, superdelegates need to be willing to publicly commit in June. The only other way to conclude this race is to have the MI-FL decision in May convince Sen Clinton that she cannot win - which is not the definitive event likely to persuade her since there is always the credentials route at the convention.

Dr S, Alexandria, VA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:18 AM)

THIS IS FOR TG OF NC:

IF YOU THINK FOUR YEARS OF MC CAIN WILL HELP THE U.S. YOUR NOT VERY BRIGHT. GIVING PERMINT TAX BREAKS TO THE WEALTHEST 2 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY AND TO HELL WITH THE REST OF US IS THE MOST STUPID REMARK I HAVE EVER SEEN IN HERE.

NOT ONLY WILL WE STILL SPEND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN IRAQ BUT GIVEING PEOPLE WHO DONT NEED A TAX RELIEF AND THE REST OF US WILL SUFFER FOR 4 TO 8 YEARS

IT WAS TRIED WITH EVERY REPUBLICANS SO CALLED GREAT PRESIDENT R. REAGAN WITH HIS FAMOUS TRICKLE DOWN EFFORTS THAT DIDNT WORK THEN AND HASNT WORKED NOW.

ITS JUST LIKE THE REPUBLICANS TO THINK MC CAIN IS NO DIFFERENT THAN BUSH WHEN HE FOLLOWS MOST EVERYTHING THE JERK WAS FOR. ALL MC CAIN IS DOING WILL DESTROY THE UNDITED STATES AND END THE MIDDLE CLASS.

ITS TIME FOR WE INDEPENDENTS TO VOTE FOR OBAMA AND END THE RULE OF THE ELEIT OF THIS COUNTRY AND GIVE THE COUNTRY BACK TO THE PEOPLE NOT THE RICH.

JOE GA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:18 AM)

Just more lies from the "Desperate" Hillary campaign that she got the most popular votes. Florida and Michigan do not count because their governors and state legislatures had a case of premature election voting. Hypocrite Hillary then brought one of the 3 fools that created this problem, Ickes, onto her campaign staff and has the gall to cry about the overly punitive punishment FL and MI got?

Check the rules Silly Hilly, it's all about delegates, those selected by us voters and the superdelegates. This bogus popular vote nonsense is just typical of Slick Hilly trying to pull a fast one because she thinks she's above the rules.

Go Obama 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:19 AM)

I do believe that Hillary is decompressing and needs to have the psycological support of winning W.VA. After years of dealing with a husband who cheated on her time and time again, she has been devalued. Let her decide on her terms..

Barbara Snowberger, Knoxville, TN (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:22 AM)

Obama will be the nominee. The Clintons are loyal Democrats and will do all in their power to support him as this winds down. I'm hopeful that Hillary will end up with a cabinet position where she can be effective on healthcare reform, or move up ultimately to Reid's position, where she can wield more power and help the Dems get this nation back on track. Dems, we are blessed with two great Americans here who will do all they can to remedy our ills.

R in CA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:26 AM)

Hillary's ego has always been the problem. The only thing that has ever mattered to her, is herself. Which is why it would be so damned dangerous for her to have any more power.

Thomas Mc, Colorado Springs, CO (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 10:28 AM)

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