Obama's 'super' comeback

Posted: Monday, May 12, 2008 2:30 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama has taken the lead in what was once Clinton's formidable superdelegate lead, according to NBC News' count. The endorsement of Hawaii’s Dolly Strazar put the Illinois senator over the top in what is the last measurement by which he trailed in this race to the Democratic nomination. Obama picked up three other superdelegates today to expand that lead to 279 to 276.5. (Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka, Idaho state party chairman R. Keith Roark and Maine congressman Tom Allen were the others).

Obama's crawl to overtaking Clinton among superdelegates has been a steep, but steady climb since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, when Clinton held a 90-person superdelegate lead, 260 to 170.

Here’s a timeline of superdelegate numbers:
- Feb. 5: Clinton 260-170
- Feb. 28 (after Obama's winning streak of 11-straight contests): Clinton 254-204
- March 6 (after OH/TX/RI/VT): 254-215
- March 14 (After Obama's wins in WY 3/8; MS 3/11): Clinton 253-217
- March 31: Clinton 255-222
- April 15: Clinton 257-231
- April 23 (the day after the PA primary): Clinton 263-239
- April 30: Clinton 268-248
- May 5 (day before Indiana/NC primaries): Clinton 272.5-256
- May 12: Obama 279-276.5

As Obama went on his improbable streak of 11 consecutive -- and decisive -- wins in the month of February, he increased his pledged delegate lead and, one-by-one, cut into Clinton's superdelegate lead. By Feb. 28, after those victories, Obama had made significant inroads. Clinton lost six superdelegates, per the NBC News count, and Obama had gained 34, bringing the total to Clinton 254, Obama 204.

VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Deputy Political Director Mark Murray talk about Obama's new superdelegate lead.

As Obama’s pledged delegate lead grew to more than 100 and the possibility faded of seating Michigan and Florida’s delegates according to the beauty-contest primary results, analysts did the math and saw Clinton would need to turn the tide with superdelegates.

She would need to not just stem supers from flooding to Obama, but would need to have an overwhelming victory with the group. Obama’s superdelegate momentum slowed, but never turned in Clinton’s favor -- even after her Ohio and Texas victories and during what were the toughest weeks of Obama’s campaign with his “bitter” remarks and the re-emergence of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright at the National Press Club. Eight days after the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries, Clinton had not netted a single delegate while Obama gained 13 more.

Political observers looked for a path for Clinton and wondered what could be the “game changer” with superdelegates. Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania didn’t offer it. "Bitter" and Wright seemed to offer a window of opportunity for the New York senator. On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton led 262 to 237; nine days later, Clinton led 268-248. At that point, she was making gains, but still not at Obama's pace.

But if she could have made North Carolina close, and won Indiana by more than a few points, then she was poised for a slate of impressive wins, a couple weeks of good press coverage and potentially, finally, have an effect on those superdelegates.

The momentum gained from a positive performance on May 6th, followed by sizable wins in West Virginia and Kentucky could have been enough for a close finish in Oregon, if not a win there. What’s more, it would have called into question Obama’s viability. He would have been viewed as having been seriously wounded by Wright, and superdelegates may have perhaps then gone en masse to Clinton.

Obama would have been like those NCAA basketball teams that peak in December, fizzle in February and don’t make the tournament after losing to a bunch of bubble teams.

Clinton would have had a very strong case, but as close as that was to happening, it proved too tough a climb.

Obama won decisively in North Carolina and narrowly lost in Indiana, and since then has gained 23 superdelegates to Clinton’s net of 1.5.

That Obama has been able to accomplish what he has is an incredible thing when one steps back to think about it. The New York senator had many of the advantages, including:

(a) Name recognition: At the start of this race, the Clinton name was the most famous name in Democratic politics. Hillary and Bill Clinton had sky-high approval ratings among Democrats. Obama, himself, called Clinton the “default” choice for many Democrats.

(b) Money: Clinton transferred in $10 million from her Senate campaign and had seemingly every major Democratic fundraiser behind her. No one thought Clinton would be the one outraised and in debt.

(c) The Democratic Establishment: From the DNC calendar to superdelegates to even Bill Clinton, Clinton had them all. Again, no one though Clinton would be the one behind in superdelegates.

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Comments

Obama has truly changed the face of political campaigns as we know them! It is amazing that just a year ago he was not even considered as a strong candidate, now he is going to take out the biggest name in Democratic politics!!! YES WE CAN!

http://www.politivine.com

Cory (SC) (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:41 PM)

Thanks so much for the superdelegate timeline! I was getting lost in all the adds in recent days. This was a big help.

Marihelen (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:43 PM)

What wonderful news. Now we have to get to 2025.

Bill Johnson, Anaconda, Montana (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:43 PM)

Man plans, then G-D plans - And He is the best of planners.

mom (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:46 PM)

The spike in the coffin for Hillary's last demographic hope!

What a loss for hard-working white people!

What a loss for Crown Royal shooters and AK-47 Bambi killers (sportsmen).

What a loss for people who have been assaulted all night in a UFO back of daddy's barn.

Lazy Old White Chick for Obama (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:46 PM)

He has a lot more ready to go or not saying. After Edwards comments, would you want to bet who he is voting for? They are waiting for Clinton to drop out if possible because it is easier to say once she is gone rather than get in the middle. After all, they may still want to be able to call on the Clintons for help in their own areas once she has nothing else to do and that is easier if she already quit and they did not have to choose yet.

Sharon (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:48 PM)

It is truly amazing what Senator Obama has been able to accomplish. As I read earlier this morning, the voters in the end vote for a candidate, not a campaign. And in the end, he appears much more likeable.

I'm not quite sure Senator Clinton ever had a real message to run on. But ultimately in the end, her vote on Iraq hurt her more deeply than she or anyone in her campaign realized.

She never quite won the "experience" argument over the "change" argument.

There appears to be a real sea change in the country this year; Senator Obama's message is resonating, slowly but surely.

And it's uplifting. Nothing's gonna stop us now.

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:49 PM)

With all of those advantages, this is a bigger upset than when the Giants beat the Patriots. He flatly outmaneuvered and out-campaigned her. That has to have McCain camped a little nervous. Racism can only help McCain so much.

Carter, Jacksonville, FL (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:50 PM)

I don't understand the lack of confidence, and the unwillingness of some of us to give Obama a chance.

He has proven that he is the real deal. It is no accident that he has routed the entire field of heavy wieghts. Empty suit my eye.

ET (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:50 PM)

I dont think you can call it a crawl Mr Montanaro. More like a steady flow thats about to become an avaalache.

True American (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:52 PM)

So Obama has beaten her with Supers 109 to 16.5 (and counting) since Feb, 5.

That's a whuppin' of pretty amazing proportions. That's a pretty strong statement by the party insiders that were supposed to be one of Hillary's cores of support and strength.

Say this for those 16.5 - they are either very much true believers in Hillary or just flat-out scared of the Clintons.

Latte-drinking, Foreign car driving, College-educated White guy in SC! (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:52 PM)

Fantastic history. Thank you

Shel, SLC UT (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:52 PM)

On Wednesday, after Hillary wins WV by a large margin, look for a bunch of superdelegates to declare for Obama. If Clinton gloats too heavily in her WV win, and especially if she takes a shot or two at Obama, look for even more delegates to declare for Obama. At this point, barring something catastrophic, the party faithful will not stand for a course that does not solidify Obama as the nominee.

slindsley, mount airy NC (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:53 PM)

Domenico, thanks a lot. You have summed up what this race been. Most important, there are serious lessons to be learnt. the inevitability of hillary has melted like ice in the sun, slowly but sure. That is why up to now, she is living in denial. "It can't be true", she says. But american history is being re-written. a new era has come. REAL CHANGE has come.

Vote Obama

sem, va (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:53 PM)

Haven't the Super D's noticed that the DNC is broke? Maybe they haven't made the connection b/t no donations and no nominee. Wake Up!!! I vote June 3 but believe me I could care less about "being heard" -- I'd rather have the Dems spending their time and money on the general.

Liz in SD (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:53 PM)

Good sum up Domenico.

Lisa, enthusiastically for Obama in New Britain, CT (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:54 PM)

FINALLY!!! What took u guys so long???!! All this talk about why Obama couldn't close the deal . . . It was HILLARY that couldn't close the deal. Obama, though not in as quick enough fashion for the ADD-inflicted Media, HAS been STEADILY CLOSING THE DEAL!! Hence the aforementioned Story . . .

GOD BLESS THE USA!!!!

OBAMA 08/12

Matthew, Newark nj (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:54 PM)

I'm happy, and glad, it is so good!

ZEDAPINGA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:55 PM)

Obama constantly bucks common convention and exhibits true strength and sound judgement to overcome ANY obstacle.

That's my next president you're talking about there.

Vicki, Florida (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:56 PM)

This is all very nice. After Super Tuesday - the OUTCRY was there for the super-delegates to NOT OVERTURN THE WILL OF THE VOTERS. Many a pundit insisted that superdelegates should vote as their district did - so as NOT to overturn the will of the voters....

Can someone please do this math...I may be wrong as I don't have access to a research department..

a) all the elected house members voted as their district did,

b) Senators voted as their state did,

c) Non-elected supers voted as their state did

She would be ahead in supers - enough to win the nomination. Would she not...

Funny that I have posted this many times and it doesn't get posted - am I on to something??

Angela (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 2:59 PM)

A VERY important perspective on the Democratic nominee process and superdelegates. It really shows what an impressive and formidable candidate Barack Obama will be. The question that Hillary Clinton's campaign has raised over & over ("Why can't he win the big states?" "Why can't he close the deal?") should be re-framed: Why can't Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama? Why can't she raise money the way Barack Obama can?

And for all those naysayers out there - you just keep unerestimating Barack Obama! You see how well it worked for the Clinton machine.

Sidney Boston, MA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:01 PM)

I've a question: has Bill Clinton's travel on behalf of his wife been paid by the Hillary's campaign or by the taxpayers for the ex-president? I certainly hope it was the former but no one ever clarifies this for the public.

Qin Shao, Newtown, PA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:02 PM)

Thank you for stepping back and reflecting on what Obama has accomplished. Because his verbal gaffe and a couple guilt-by-associations have dominated the news in the last month, people forget that in order to accomplish what he has, Obama created and then executed a flawless, efficient, relentless, and innovative campaign - starting from scratch. This takes enormous talent and work - more than most people understand (again the focus drifting toward the few negatives).

I also think it bodes well for the general. I may be in the minority with this thought, but I think the Clintons are much fiercer adversaries than John McCain. And I think the theory of "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger" is dead-on. Obama is a sharper, tougher candidate because of this hitoric primary.

Todd, Wheaton, IL (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:02 PM)

"Incredible" is an understatment. I think that we have all become so wrapped up in the minutiae that we didn't recognize just what an astounding accomplishment this has been for the Obama campaign. No matter whom you support, you must admit this about him and his camp. He simply played the game much, much better than she. Who'd a thunk it???

Waiting for Obama, NC (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:02 PM)

Way to go Senator Obama. Keep em coming.

There are a few things about the narrative of this race that bother me greatly.

#1 - Why is the assertion that black voters are voting for Sen. Obama only because he is black allowed to go unchallenged? Months ago, Sen. Clinton was heavily favored by black voters. If it was a racial thing, blacks would've taken one look at Sen. Obama and quickly jumped on the bandwagon, after all, he was black when this whole process began. That is not what happened. As primary season wore on, statements and actions of the Clintons turned black voters off and caused them to join the Obama movement. That's not a racial thing, that's an informed choice.

#2 - The only way for folks to have a leg to stand on when praising Sen. Clinton's ability to attract white voters is to slice and dice the white electorate down to educated vs college educated. How about examining senior citizens vs non senior citizens. If you don't factor race in at all, Sen. Obama has a commanding lead. Certain perceptions can be reached depending on the way objective data is analyzed. I am not happy that the MSM has chosen to focus on race and gender. JMHO.

Obama 08....Change we can believe in!

Str8NoChaser (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:02 PM)

This that goes to show, Yes, we can do all things through him(God) that strenghten us. Hillary made her mistake when she began pandering during the Texas Primary when she stated she would raise mim. wage to $9:95 per hour. I knew this lady was full of it. Hillary also made mistake with SD delegate when she went negative with her attack on Senator Obama. Senator Clinton painted Obama as a person that was unelectable. This for me was the turning point. All of the individuals that say they will vote for MCCain if Obama is the Nominee are CRAZY. The Arkansas Democratic Gazeete has printed numerous of articles on how Hillary wants to win at ANY cost. It is sad the way she is dividing the country with her slick and underhand racial remarks. WE all know why Obama is not winning over WV, KY, Ohio, And Penn. lets not be blinded by the pundits and Hillary Clinton. I hate to say it, but there are still racist whites and black in this country that can not put aside their racial difference and vots for what's best for the country. All I can say, these people need Jesus in their lives.

Linda, AR (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:03 PM)

Latest polls suggest that Clinton is picking up support from John McCain’s base which is the following:

White Americans that hate people of color.

White Christians that hate people that do not look like them.

White Americans that have very little education.

White Americans who do not care about their own personal economic condition.

White Americans that want to see the sons die in an un-justifiable war.

White Women who hate man still seams to be Hillary Clinton’s primary support.

The New York Times Op-Ed: By BOB HERBERT

"I don’t know if Senator Obama can win the White House. No one knows. But to deliberately convey the idea that most white people — or most working-class white people — are unwilling to give an African-American candidate a fair hearing in a presidential election is a slur against whites."

So what she is saying to all of you is if you are White Trash I am your girl. So vote for me so the South can rise one more time. If I was White I would run as far away from her as a could. This is not the vision for America. Remember everyone she was a Goldwater girl when she was younger.

Capt. Smash, Salt Lake City, Utah (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:03 PM)

why are all the newspeople (tim russert of note) and many others so adamantly against Hillary Clinton?? Because they are so chauvinistic they can"t see past their own noses?? I especially name Tim Russert who is from Blue Collar Buffalo,New York and his father who was an hourly railroad employee in the Buffalo area. To me it is unbelievable that the ultra liberal college professors taught Tim so well he actually bought into their intellectual beliefs.

Ken Brown Buffalo,New York (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:03 PM)

It's called a grassroots, world-changing movement, and Obama was merely the catalyst which ignited it. The power of his message has transformed the political landscape by moving the mountains of cynicism, complacency, and cynicism which have dominated it since JFK and Bobby. Thank God for Obama, but thanks also for the resilient American spirit which he has awakened from it's long slumber.

Jack Hussein Donovan (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:05 PM)

The nomination race is over for Hillary. Just waiting for the Fat Lady to 'officially' sing!

Ron Davis, West Palm Beach, FL (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:05 PM)

It's all over, Hillary

For the sake of the country, for the sake of the party, and for the sake of your own legacy . . . throw in the towel before you do any more damage!!!

Independent in TN (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:06 PM)

THIS F......G PRO-OBAMA MEDIA SHILLING JUST WILL NOT END.

crat3 (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:07 PM)

As a democrat, I think both Obama and Hillary are good candidates. But for the sake of unity, and getting on the national stage to counter John McCain, we need a nominee before the convention. At this point, Hillary is verging on selfishness and may frankly be delusional. Obviously, she is praying that some sort of lightning bolt ala Reverend Wright will surface and bring Obama down. Highly unlikely at this point! Time for Hillary to move on and make some money! She ran a hard race, but the American people have spoken!

Barney Purple (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:08 PM)

FLYING MONKEY SIGHTING! Another flying monkey has been sighted coming out of Wolfson's butt or was that his mouth. It's hard to tell the difference with the garbage that has been coming out of his mouth on the news channels these days.

JimbObama, Poulsbo, WA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:09 PM)

NOW who do you think is a "fighter"? He had to campaign against Hillary, Bill AND Chelsea! Obama made steady gains in EVERY category and did it WITHOUT name recognition or any "machine" behind him. Good, old fashion leg work and a message that appealed to educated voters! I am so proud of my Senator!

Diane from Illinois (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:10 PM)

This is sweet. For all the frightened "blue-collar" Reagan Democrats, Obama's victory is historic and inspiring. It is the American Dream come true. You must think hard about your prejudice and NOT support McCain, because in the end, you will not be rewarded. YOU are the ones being sent to Iraq. You are the ones without the tax cuts. You are the ones unable to better your future because college tuition is sky-high. Your jobs are the ones being cut and shipped to China by the REPUBLICAN CEO'S THAT McCain REPRESENTS. You are scared into voting for McCain because they know how to scare you by demonizing Obama.
Blue-collar Reagan Democrats, ask yourself: Why do highly educated people support Obama over McCain?
How was this unknown junior Senator from Illinois able to crush the most famous political machine in the last 16 years?
It is because he shares YOUR goals and aspirations because he learned them the same way you did, by working as a community organizer instead of accepting huge lucrative job offers after college like he could have done. He didn't have a trophy wife with Daddy's fortune backing him like McCain did.
Obama's life story is just like the majority of Reagan Democrats have experienced.

David Kolva, MD Oswego/Syracuse, NY (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:11 PM)

The next question is:

When will he hit 2025?

I predict within 3-5 days after the May 20 Primary. He will get 40 or so Superdelegates before May 20, then about 50 pledged in the next 3 primaries. THen the other 50-60 will pile on after he wins Oregon and has a majority of the pledged delegates.

It may be faster if Edwards endorses with his delegates.

PEM59, central jersey (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:11 PM)

Truly amazing when you think about where this race was 12 months ago - even 6 months ago. I think those around the Clinton camp who have whispered about "political malpractice" are probably right. Seems like she spent too much time being "inevitable" and not enough time playing the game of retail politics through 2007. Seems like her recent re-connection with many voters is a case of "too little, too late."

Here's one Democract who greatly respects and admires Senator Clinton (while disliking much about how Mark Penn ran her campaign) and is looking forward to a unified party backing Senator Obama.

Jason, Grand Blanc, MI (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:12 PM)

As Terry McAuliffe continues to pimp for Hillary Clinton, he reminds me of the guy in Baghdad that said that Iraq was winning the war, as U.S. tanks were within the city limits. What an insult on our intelligence... Another example of what a phonies the Clinton's are. Time for a new page. President Obama!

colin (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:13 PM)

I appears that as long as the media like/or First Read/MSNBC still calculating possible scenario for Hillary Clinton to make an argument to win, she will do so..as she is so hard headed that she will do anything possible to brainwashed US voters of her name in USPolitics.....
Its very annoying to watch all tv political analyst asking "Why is Clinton not getting out" ,reason why I will not turn my tv on until the democratic nomination process is over!
I can only Keith Olbermann,Countdown @ 12midnight !

LDC,Canada (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:14 PM)

This has been SO over for awhile......since the 12 in a row. How about those, Hil and Wolfson? Why couldn't she win just ONE of 12? Let them wast their $$....it is humorous. They can have the WV few delegates....and Obama will pick-up MORE Suipers. What does that tell you.....Obama is a greatr candidate, and Hillary is awful.

C.Myles; Atlantic, VA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:17 PM)

McCain/Clinton 2008 = dream ticket

nObama

The Truth Hurts (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:19 PM)

Finally, some real and substantive credit given to Sen. Obama and his campaign as is their due. What he, Michelle, Axelrod, Plough, McCaskill, too many to count brillant minds behind the scenes, and a legion of hardworking supporters unparalled in any political arena have accomplished against the established candidate and the establiment itself is nothing short of amazing! Bravo!

Earned My Respect (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:19 PM)

I wonder why the Clinton's runing on health care in'92' and failing miserably while not even attempting to bring it up again for the remainder of two terms never became an issue. Clinton had her chance and caved to the insurance companies. That is precisely the change Obama promises. I think his winning makes it clear that the electoret wants wholesale change in Washington. Change may be uncomfortable but required and the American people are coming to that conclusion in a ground swell. Obama brilliantly saw this from the get go.

Thom Nelson, Eugene, Oregon (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:22 PM)

THE HILLARYS MESSAGE WAS: I AM BILL CLINTONS WIFE VOTE FOR ME!

RENEA PLYMOUTH,MI (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:22 PM)

Although have great respect for the hard-working, less educated americans in this country, I'm very relieved to see that they won't be chosing our next president. In case you think this sounds too harsh, don't forget who voted Bush into office. I'm also anxious to see the next adminstration make a serious push to develop renewable energy. This will create thousands of jobs and seriously decrease our dependence on foreign oil. Consequently, various nations in the middle east will be forced to open up to the wold economy thus making armed conlicts in the region less likely. For the first time in several years... I feel hopefuly and optimistic...

Michael, Torrance, CA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:23 PM)

Thanks for the update!!!!! OBAMA '08

Barbara Shaver, Arlington, Tx (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:23 PM)

It's like the roadrunner--passing the coyote.

beeb,beeb.

Andress (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:24 PM)

Today is a great day!!

Angie for Obama (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:25 PM)

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