Obama's 'super' comeback

Posted: Monday, May 12, 2008 2:30 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama has taken the lead in what was once Clinton's formidable superdelegate lead, according to NBC News' count. The endorsement of Hawaii’s Dolly Strazar put the Illinois senator over the top in what is the last measurement by which he trailed in this race to the Democratic nomination. Obama picked up three other superdelegates today to expand that lead to 279 to 276.5. (Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka, Idaho state party chairman R. Keith Roark and Maine congressman Tom Allen were the others).

Obama's crawl to overtaking Clinton among superdelegates has been a steep, but steady climb since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, when Clinton held a 90-person superdelegate lead, 260 to 170.

Here’s a timeline of superdelegate numbers:
- Feb. 5: Clinton 260-170
- Feb. 28 (after Obama's winning streak of 11-straight contests): Clinton 254-204
- March 6 (after OH/TX/RI/VT): 254-215
- March 14 (After Obama's wins in WY 3/8; MS 3/11): Clinton 253-217
- March 31: Clinton 255-222
- April 15: Clinton 257-231
- April 23 (the day after the PA primary): Clinton 263-239
- April 30: Clinton 268-248
- May 5 (day before Indiana/NC primaries): Clinton 272.5-256
- May 12: Obama 279-276.5

As Obama went on his improbable streak of 11 consecutive -- and decisive -- wins in the month of February, he increased his pledged delegate lead and, one-by-one, cut into Clinton's superdelegate lead. By Feb. 28, after those victories, Obama had made significant inroads. Clinton lost six superdelegates, per the NBC News count, and Obama had gained 34, bringing the total to Clinton 254, Obama 204.

VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Deputy Political Director Mark Murray talk about Obama's new superdelegate lead.

As Obama’s pledged delegate lead grew to more than 100 and the possibility faded of seating Michigan and Florida’s delegates according to the beauty-contest primary results, analysts did the math and saw Clinton would need to turn the tide with superdelegates.

She would need to not just stem supers from flooding to Obama, but would need to have an overwhelming victory with the group. Obama’s superdelegate momentum slowed, but never turned in Clinton’s favor -- even after her Ohio and Texas victories and during what were the toughest weeks of Obama’s campaign with his “bitter” remarks and the re-emergence of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright at the National Press Club. Eight days after the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries, Clinton had not netted a single delegate while Obama gained 13 more.

Political observers looked for a path for Clinton and wondered what could be the “game changer” with superdelegates. Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania didn’t offer it. "Bitter" and Wright seemed to offer a window of opportunity for the New York senator. On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton led 262 to 237; nine days later, Clinton led 268-248. At that point, she was making gains, but still not at Obama's pace.

But if she could have made North Carolina close, and won Indiana by more than a few points, then she was poised for a slate of impressive wins, a couple weeks of good press coverage and potentially, finally, have an effect on those superdelegates.

The momentum gained from a positive performance on May 6th, followed by sizable wins in West Virginia and Kentucky could have been enough for a close finish in Oregon, if not a win there. What’s more, it would have called into question Obama’s viability. He would have been viewed as having been seriously wounded by Wright, and superdelegates may have perhaps then gone en masse to Clinton.

Obama would have been like those NCAA basketball teams that peak in December, fizzle in February and don’t make the tournament after losing to a bunch of bubble teams.

Clinton would have had a very strong case, but as close as that was to happening, it proved too tough a climb.

Obama won decisively in North Carolina and narrowly lost in Indiana, and since then has gained 23 superdelegates to Clinton’s net of 1.5.

That Obama has been able to accomplish what he has is an incredible thing when one steps back to think about it. The New York senator had many of the advantages, including:

(a) Name recognition: At the start of this race, the Clinton name was the most famous name in Democratic politics. Hillary and Bill Clinton had sky-high approval ratings among Democrats. Obama, himself, called Clinton the “default” choice for many Democrats.

(b) Money: Clinton transferred in $10 million from her Senate campaign and had seemingly every major Democratic fundraiser behind her. No one thought Clinton would be the one outraised and in debt.

(c) The Democratic Establishment: From the DNC calendar to superdelegates to even Bill Clinton, Clinton had them all. Again, no one though Clinton would be the one behind in superdelegates.

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Comments

THANK YOU FOR GIVING HIM CREDIT!

HE TOOK OUT THE CLINTON MACHINE...NO ONE THAT THAT WAS POSSIBLE.

WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT HIM?

THE HIGHER THE OBSTACLE...THE BIGGER THE CHALLENGE...OBAMA WILL TAKE IT ON..ITS CALLED CHARACTER!

OBAMAGIRLTN (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:25 PM)

HILLARYS CAMPAIGN SLOGAN WAS: I AM BILL CLINTONS WIFE SO VOTE FOR ME!

RENEA,PLYMOUTH,MI (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:25 PM)

To the DNC. Listen up, I am a Republican who has voted republican since Reagan. I will vote for Obama because he is smart and capable. If Hillary gets the nomination I will vote Republican. If the DNC wants to woo the "W" republicans Obama is the way to do that. Otherwise there is no chance that I will vote for someone who publicy thinks my vote is based on being a white guy. I have a brain, and I use it.

Middle Aged White Guy, Northern VA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:26 PM)

OBAMA '08! As a young voter, I have been so inspired by Senator Obama. My friends and colleagues are actually excited over the presidential election rather than dreading having to vote for the lesser of two evils. Hopefully, we will be able to call this great representative of the United States Mr. President come November.

A.C. Massachusetts (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:28 PM)

move bitch, get out my way ...

john (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:30 PM)

You reap what you sow.

Clinton planted seeds of dishonesty, negativism, and back room deals with special interests, and columbians, I mean Canadians--both.

There ya go.

Andress (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:31 PM)

If Senator Obama is elected in November, I think one perhaps must go back to Andrew Jackson in 1828 to find a president whose election so fundamentally altered the way the United States chose its president. Senator Obama would be the first "internet" president.

A coincidence would be that Andrew Jackson followed John Quincy Adams (son of former pressident John Adams) as president, just as Obama would follow the only other presdient (George W. Bush) who was the son of a former president (George H. Bush).

Other major "turning points" in voting history occurred in 1870, when African-Americans were first allowed to vote; in 1920, when women were first allowed to vote; and in 1964, with the passge of the Civil Rights Act.

Brian Drozd Piscataway, New Jersey (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:32 PM)

HILLARY HAS TRIED TO USE THE 'RACE CARD' AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY --- AND FEW PARTY LEADERS HAVE SPOKEN OUT LOUDLY ENOUGH TO PUT A STOP TO IT.

NEARLY EVERYONE OUTSIDE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY – PUNDITS, MEDIA, REPUBLICANS, INDEPENDENTS - ACKNOWLEDGE THAT OBAMA SHOULD BE THE PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE. BUT A CONTINGENT OF HILLARY’S SUPERDELEGATES WITHIN THE PARTY WILL NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT. INSTEAD, THESE HILLARY-SUPER-DELEGATES KEEP HOPING AND PRAYING THAT SOMEHOW THIS BLACK MAN WILL NOT BE THE PARTY’S NOMINEE. AND, HILLARY KEEPS SUGGESTING "CODED ARGUMENTS" OF HOW OBAMA CAN BE DENIED THE NOMINATION.

Hillary will win WV by Race Voting .... (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:32 PM)

McShame should be ASHAMED of himself. Mr Military wont back a GI bill for the military.
What a sweetheart.

OBAMA BETTER NOT TAKE CLINTON AS VP. It will only HURT HIM

Nj (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:34 PM)

While we are using sports analogies, I think this primary is like a football game. Going into the 4th quarter Hillary was down 2 touchdowns to Obama, 28-14. She needed to score quickly to win. During the 21st debate she did not complete the hail mary she needed, but rather conservatively ran the ball towards the goal-line. Obama let her run time off the clock. With Ohio and Pennsylvania, Hillary got her TD, but ran almost all the time off the clock doing it. Hillary then attacked Obama for not holding a 22nd debate. She was basically chiding him for running the ball with the lead instead of passing the ball and giving her a chance for a big play. He smartly ignored her. Finally Indiana and North Carolina came. Hillary barely won Indiana and lost North Carolina by a landslide. She basically kicked a FG while Obama scored a TD. Now the score is 35-24 and Hillary has no more time on the clock. There are no more states with enough delegates for her to catch up. Obama has the lead in the popular vote, pledged delegates, states and now super delegates. The game is over, yet Hillary keeps calling time out after Obama kneels down to finish the game. She needs to do the right thing and return her remaining contributions to her donors instead of wasting it on meaningless timeouts. She probably won't even shake his hand after the game. Too bad. He would have done it for her.

troy, marina del rey, ca (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:34 PM)

Although she is brilliant, experienced and everything else (I think given all that has happened she should have won) she continued to give Obama a platform to show his strength by continual supporting the negative pandoring. That is what hurt her more than anything else.

I hope she sticks around and supports efforts that will improve the issues both of them and the country believes are important.

Peace and Blessings

Raymond, Dallas Texas (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:35 PM)

great!go obama!yes we can!!!

vanessa williams,vacaville,california (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:36 PM)

I just can't wait for Al Gore to be counted in the Obama super deigates. We all know it's comeing. He had a pre-existing relationship with the Clintons, it seems he would have naturally thrown his weight behind her. But he hasn't and has been very hush hush about who is will support. I think that's because like others in a simular sicuation he will choice to back Obama regardless of his past relationship with the Clintons and just doesn't want to embarass Hillary or Bill for that matter. He will have to do it sooner or later.

Yvette, Houston, TX (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:37 PM)

It is well known that O'Bama has outspent Clinton, and that he has a huge backlog of money in his funds, mostly contributed by smaller donations from people who believe in him and that he can win. It has been said that O'Bama has offered Clinton funds to reduce Clintons campaign debts and aid in her further
campaigning.

As a contributor to the O'Bama cause, and my complete and total disgust in the Clinton history of tacky and classless values and baggage from the time of their first foray into politics, I would be highly angered if I thought any part
of O'Bama contributions were to go to help the Clintons out of the debt that have for a poorly planned and poorly executed campaign. This would clearly effect my vote in November.

M.. Andre,,Portland, OR (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:38 PM)

Money Talks and Obviously, money buys super delegates.

Money Talks (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:38 PM)

MSNBC's biased headlines and support of Obama is disturbing!
God help this country if Obama and his ilk (Wright, Michelle Obama) get into the White House.

Jen, Pacific Palisades, CA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:39 PM)

Obama has run a marvelous campaign. Hillary Clinton ran an arrogant, elitist campaign and she lost. People in West VA should not let Clinton race bait them. When America was attacked (9/11), the attackers did not attack by race. They attacked America. Americans of all races need to accept that.
People who vote for Clinton are voting for her because she is a white woman. That is clear because she has lost already and anyone who doesn't know that shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway. They know she can't win. She knows she can't win and she is making every effort to have those people hearken back to a time when the color of ones skin was all that mattered.
Black people who vote for Obama are voting for the better candidate and that is clear. I don't think Obama, had he lost by every measuring stick as Clinton has, would not still be out there trying to weaken Clinton and wrest power from the Party. He is showing he is a better person and would be a better President in every thing he does.
How many people want a President who refuses to play by the rules? How many times must the news show you how shamelessly Clinton has changed her position on what rules, states and people matter before voters of all colors figure out that she is a conniving liar and a horrible person to consider to be Commander-in-Chief?

Linda Porter, Atlanta, GA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:43 PM)

Its refreshing to know that America can give a bonified Afro American candidate the opportunity to run for President. The super D count is the beginning of the real trail to the White House for a Black Man.
God is Able!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thurman Bartie, Port Arthur, Texas (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:44 PM)

JAJA Andress that was funny!!

GO OBAMA GO!!!!

OBAMA 08

Veronica from new jersey (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:44 PM)

So Hillary STARTED this campaign with 260 and now she only has 276.5????

Obama started with 170 and now has 279 - pretty impressive!

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!

No More CLINTONS!!!! Seattle, WA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:44 PM)

"Yada, Yada, Yada, Obama", the charismatic speaker with nothing behind his words, except people who espouse hate. Now he sails on the enthusiasm of the ignorant masses, reminds me of Hitler.

JD, LA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:44 PM)

People are wondering what went wrong here for Senator Clinton. I think her "presumptive nominee" strategy was doomed from the start -- or at least dead in the water after Iowa. She believed she had a lock on the Democratic Party, the money and the voters. As the race began to play out is was clear she owned none of these, but she never changed her strategy. It is stunning that Bill and Hillary Clinton, "gods" in the world of American politics, could have made such a stunning miscalculation.

Andrea Gaines, Lincoln, Virginia (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:49 PM)

MSNBC: Does this mean you will not longer bore us with each moment he adds one more? I am surprised we haven't seen "Obama brushed his teeth" or "He is wearing a tie today" or "MSNBC + OBAMA love 4eva"

Sean (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:49 PM)

Thank you supers, we need to get this party unified now without hatred or bad words. Let's all work together and beat McCain!!!!!!

Brenda (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:57 PM)

Only someone with a sens of organization, management and vision is more then ready to be at the top JOB. If Hillary had a vision an organization and a sens of management, with her brand name, she would have pulverized Obama. So let the smarter preside and watch America shine again around the world.

Thron Marina Del Rey California (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:57 PM)

It so sad that all you see is Obama beating the Clinton's. Well I must of missed that last pass of Koolaid. Obama can not connect with the dem. base and can't win the big states in Nov. I am so glad to see you all so happy. Please don't too sad in November when the McCain wins.

E R, PA (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:00 PM)

why should they be white or black voters we are the people

lisa brown (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:00 PM)

McCain/Clinton 2008 = dream ticket

nObama
The Truth Hurts (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 3:19 PM)

You must be hurting real bad now. How does it feel...., I know.... it hurts...very much.
GET READY FOR THE NEW POTUS
BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA...THE REAL TRUTH..THE ONE...NEO!!!

NEO (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:01 PM)

Why are just about all the blogs here pro-Obama?
Hmmm...you think NBC has their favorite candidate.
You left-wing secular fundamentalists are so transparent, hypocritical, and if it wasn't for the butchering of over 3, 500 pre-born children every single day (!), you would also be laughable.
Go McCain (and I know MSNBC won't publish this!)

Tom Meadows Saginaw, Michigan (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:01 PM)

Many of us saw from the very beginning that here was an extraordinary human being with extraordinary talent, vision & understanding of what this country needs in the Post-Shrub Era. Years ago I was saying, "There's no way Hillary can get elected - there's GOT to be something better we can offer!"

Thank God something better stepped up to the plate, and America for once is waking up & smelling the coffee.

Perry (**ZOMG HUSSEIN!!!**) O'Townsend (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:02 PM)

Hillary can talk all she wants about a white woman having the potential of broader support than a black man.

But, let's face it, people like Obama and most people have a disdain for Hillary.

Obama has acted very presidential and decisive as he handled all of her nonsense, from "bitter", to "elitist", to "Reverand Wright".

Hillary is the worst kind of desperate politician - willing to destroy her party in order to gain power.

Ned Blider (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:03 PM)

Wow, I'm surprise to see what courage mix with vision can make a simple man to accomplish.

At first I was like "It is to early for him, He needs some more time" but now I'm ready to vote for him in november.

Ben Ali Saget, Roselle, New Jersey (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:06 PM)

I am sick and tired of all this campaigning. Get it over with. It should be illegal to raise money or campaign for office before 6 months of the general election. I look at the three candidates left and it seems to me they have been planning for this for the past 6 years, and I wonder does it worth it, is their hearts in the right place and should we keep calling it public service or ego service.
If election laws don’t change very soon we will see fast extinction of smart and motivated people in politic to be replaced by sleazy, ego-centric people.
I am tired of this

George, St. Louis, MO (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:08 PM)

Let's look toward Obama's comeback and overcoming the Clintons and not a throw back to the lying Clinton days!

Senator Hilary Clinton has not yet been sufficiently vetted and she keeps reinventing her own fictional election process. Please send a message and encourage your friends, family, colleagues and associates to continue to vote for Senator Barak Obama in the remaining primary states. Also, all of us can send a message to the remaining super delegates to do the same. We will not wait for her trumped up "October Surprise" in an attempt to bring down Senator Obama. And, we certainly do not want a January surprise in 2009 and beyond should we make it possible to elect another Clinton.

Obama and anyone other than a Clinton in 08 and 12!

Sheila from Texas (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:10 PM)

Thanks for this summary. Obama has indeed done something phenomenal, and I hope he (and the MSM) take a news cycle or two to reflect on how the skinny black guy with the funny name wound up crushing the Clinton machine. It really is a study in confidence and tenacity and smarts.

Cindy Lou, TX (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:10 PM)

Ken Brown from Buffalo, NY: I, too, am from WNY. Where are the hundreds of thousands of jobs Clinton promised when she ran for the senate? Where is she now when one of the plants in the Buffalo area is in the process of closing?

Tim Russert doesn't show preference for either candidate; he's tough on them all.

Blue-collar should designate one's livelihood choice, not their mindset.

Kathie (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:56 PM)

Hillary Clinton keeps implying that Obama's strength is with intellectual, college-educated voters. DUH? Do we really want dumb, uneducated people picking our President?

Bob H. (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:56 PM)

I have lost so much respect for the Clintons, and when their daughter Chelsea on the campaign trail who is paid upwards of $200,000 per year herself and dutifully campaigns and begs for her mother, when asked questions replies it is none of their business to know, but Obama does not have that luxury. Their standards are double and really really warped to say the least. They are from a different time, and time has passed them by. The world at home that they have now come to visit because they need their votes now is different and to say their base is uneducated is very insulting. Their idea of profile is very interesting too. The daughter goes to the universities and colleges and if asked questions tells them they have business asking her anything because it is none of their business and personal and the husband and Ex-President goes to out of the way places and gets into confrontations, insults the electrolate and wags his finger at them, and she goes out to them in becomes one of the guys. Then is anyone brings them to task a big cry of "FOUL" is screamed. This has not been a fair fight at all. Obama has learned a lot and endured a lot and I am so glad he hopefully is coming down the stretch to home.
People who would want her on the ticket with him are out of their minds, if anything should happen to him I would seriously look at her (remember Martin, John and Robert). They are definitely old time southern politicians, they are the ones that used the race card first.

S. Kinney, Dane, Wi (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:56 PM)

yes..Maybe MacCain/Clinton Ticket is the right one.

Please..no Obama

sarita (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:56 PM)

Barack Obama fought intolerance with grace; he fought pettiness with pride; and he fought for every American out there who has been told time and time again that their votes really didn't matter.

They attacked his wife, his patriotism, his heritage and even his faith. Nothing. Nada. Bubkes.

That's called winning people. If you are supporting Barack Obama - get used to it.

Brown (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:57 PM)

Obama is running against Hillary, Bill, Chelsea and McCain. He's had thrown at him, Rev Wright, Rezko, and Ayers and he's still here, stronger than ever. He's organized the 50 state strategy plan which is registering new democratic voters for the general so losing Clinton devotees won't matter. I'm very proud to support Obama. Neither Clinton or McCain has come up with a SOLUTION like Obama has in planning for November and including all 50 states in his plan. Amazing!

LJ (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:58 PM)

Congratulations MSNBC, you and the other news network have finally succeeded in manipulating your viewers to vote for the candidate you desire. Oh don't get me wrong, I would be happy with either Clinton or Obama, but I get a little annoyed when news shows use subtle messages to get me to vote the way they want.

Jamie, Washington (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 4:58 PM)

Senator Obama and his team have done a great job overcoming some tough obstacles. Now it's time for the Dems to close ranks and be prepared to do battle with Senator McCain and the Republicans. I think we are ready. What's the pity party for Senator Clinton? She's still a NY Senator. She still the wife of a former President. She's still raking in plenty of cash, and if she really means what she says about caring for ALL the American people and not just hard-working, white people who vote for only her, then she can start using her rolodex to begin changing the way we do business in Washington. We're all suppose to be on the same team here. I'm so proud of Senator Obama and they way he has run his campaign. I really appreciate his candor and honesty on the issues. Vote Obama 08.

Bonnie Crawford (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 5:01 PM)

Don't compare Obama to the roadrunner. He is like Little Bo Peep leading lambs around by their noses. So easy too because they are blind.

Obamabots beware--Superdelegates can change their minds.

No Obama (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 5:03 PM)

Don't compare Obama to the roadrunner. He is like Little Bo Peep leading lambs around by their noses. So easy too because they are blind.

Obamabots beware--Superdelegates can change their minds.

No Obama (Sent Monday, May 12, 2008 5:03 PM)

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