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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Delegate fight: Taking FL/MI head on

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 9:10 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , , ,

Obama will deal head-on, in some form, with the Florida/Michigan delegate dispute when he travels to Michigan tomorrow. "The Obama campaign has publicly supported a proposal by Michigan's Democratic executive committee to allocate 54 percent of Michigan's Democratic delegates to Clinton and 46 percent to Obama. ‘This proposal doesn't honor the 600,000 people that voted in the January primary,’ Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee said Monday. ‘Their voices should be heard.’”

“Obama called the compromise proposal ‘a legitimate approach.’ ‘My bottom line is, I want to get the Michigan delegation seated,’ he said. ‘I want to get the Florida delegation seated, and I want them to be participating in the convention. I want to win those states in November."

The Wall Street Journal looks at the history of recent drawn out primary fights and finds it's usually bad for that party in the fall. "The 1976, 1980 and 1984 elections could prove a grim parallel for the Democrats, though. Messrs. Ford, Carter and Mondale all were weakened by their challengers and went on to lose the general election. The difference is that all three faced tough races anyway. This year, Democrats have the electoral winds at their backs, but a long, ugly nominating battle that splits the party still could cost it the White House. ‘That's the danger of pressing on,’ Colby's Mr. Corrado says." 

A new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests a majority of Democrats don't mind the race continuing. Also, a majority of Dems would like Obama to pick Clinton as his running mate.

George McGovern, who just switched from Clinton to Obama, has an op-ed calling on both Dems to campaign together for the rest of the primaries. "The two candidates should also visit the two disputed states, Michigan and Florida. No matter what happens to the delegations from those states, their voters are entitled to see and to hear these two historic candidates. This is an agenda that could unite our party and prepare us for a successful convention with a big victory in November. It would also be a refreshing and welcome change for American presidential politics."

On the other hand… “A Tennessee congressman was forced to apologize after comparing Hillary Clinton to Glenn Close's psycho character in ‘Fatal Attraction,’ in which she refused to end an affair with a married man. ‘Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub, and Sen. Clinton has had a remarkable career and needs to move to the next step, which is helping elect the Democratic nominee,’ said Democrat Steve Cohen, a Barack Obama supporter.”

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What is inevitable is that Obama will not win Florida and so will not win the White House.  27 electoral votes and a huge state of voters completely pissed off at the Democratic Party. Those betrayed primary voters aren't coming back for a democrat in the general election. They don't care about seated delegates, they care about THEIR vote. Even if they did come back, Obama has not connected with the gigantic Hispanic demographic there and he's having nothing but trouble with the Jewish vote.  Dems need the state desperately and the voting public will probably stay home.  

Add in Texas for McCain with 34 delegates and Obama's "new electoral map" will be meaningless. California won't be enough.  

Check out the charts at electoral-vote dot com.

Consider also how pissed off Michgan voters will be (17 electoral votes) for the same reason as Florida.   And who knows how New York, 31 votes and  Hillary's base, will go.

Is there a Dem veep other than Hillary who can affect any of this? Florida may seem a bit soothed if she is on the ticket.

And we haven't even seen the 527 Republican smear campaign against Obama yet.  Can you say Dukakis?
Michigan and Flordia must have their delgates counted in proportion to how their ctizens voted in the primary. Anything less is criminal.
I haven't heard much from the Clinton campaign on this topic lately.  Weren't they fairly rabid about getting the delegate from MI & FL seated?  Weren't they accusing Barack Obama of stalling on counting the votes in those two states?

It seems to me that this was only an issue when it benefited the Clinton campaign.  Now that MI & FL do not change the 'math' in Hillary's favor - it's not as much of a big deal any more.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Florida and Michigan voters can be respected and represented without being pandered to.
Just goes to show you.  Hillary never wanted Florida & Michigan to be anything more than a talking point.
She should change her campaign slogan of the day to read; "Solutions for Hillary".
Florida and Michigan voters can be respected and represented without being pandered to.
I guess the "testicular fortitude" has turned into
crystal balls..
She'll get maybe 20 to 26 delegates out of the next
six contests doing the math...
Obama already has superdelegates added to his column that Hillary will win in West Virginia...since Indiana, North Carolina...
Oregon will be close to a wash with Kentucky..
(2 or 3 difference..  maybe more)... but Montana and South Dakota will offset those differences from Kentucky..
Puerto Rico will go for Obama..because they'll see he is the winner...and follow suit...
So Clinton needs to take a few more shots of Crown Royal to see tears...but this thing is over..

Obama only needs 33 primary pledged delegate to take the majority and by the end of the primaries he'll need approximately only 50 more superdelegates to reach 2025..

Hillary will need over 250 superdelegates to
reach 2025....

Florida and Michigan will be seated equally and it's all over.....the 2209 number becomes Obama's even quicker...Hillary is still short  over 250 delegates ..again....
Obama ~2400..Clinton ~1950...~20% win for Obama..

George McGovern (who I respect) just does not appear to know the "I never quit" Clintons very well.  I don't see them going gracefully into the night.  Although I would like it if I were wrong here.

The Florida and Michigan mess has been a huge distractor.  If Dems lose the election in November over this, it will be there own fault.  We get what we get.  I am so over this, I guess I'm not first-hand responsible for fixing it.  I have to say if it happened in CT and our party broke the rules, I'd be aggravated at the people who let it happen to begin with, but I wouldn't think our primary votes should count.  Rules are rules.

We get what we get.
It is interesting that Hillary now wants MI and FL seated. However, she agreed in September to strip the delegates in MI and FL. Ickles her campaign  manager has a seat in the DNC credential committee and agrees to strip MI and FL of their delegates. Terry McCaullife has a book in which he writes that MI should be stripped of 50% of their delegates when he was DNC chair and Carl Levin stated that MI had planned to move the primary to Jan. Terry McCaullife's answer in the book was "the rules are the rules." This is a direct quote from the book. Despite the Clinton campaign agreeing to the rules initially, why are they changing their minds now. Second, she only wants to seat MI and FL base on the election results in Jan when Obama's name is not on the ballor in MI and refuses to compromise. In actually, she is not serious about seating MI and FL if it does not provide her with the advantage. She is using MI and FL to pretend to be a fighter and care about having every vote counted. If she cares to have every vote counted, why does she want the superdelegates to overturn the people's votes so she can win the nomination. Hypocricy at its best.
Folly Pure Folly...

It's up to the DNC not either campaign..what Florida and Michigan will be in the convention...

Get a long to be along or give up...
Here is a scenario – NFL decides for whatever absurd reason that field goals won’t count in the playoffs. All the contending teams agree to the rules. Now two teams playing in the AFC championship game, lets say Team A prepares around TDs only. Even when they could kick a field goal they still went for a TD. The other team on the other hand, kicks plenty of field goals and falls behind.

Now it’s the last quarter with two minutes left in the game. Team A is ahead 21-0 as a result of three touch downs. Team B kicked seven field goals which don’t count, now team B wants their seven field goals counted and argues that it has a better chance of beating the NFC champ in the Super Bowl.

If we won’t change the rules in a simple game of football, how can the HRC and Obama campaigns expect the rules to be changed in the presidential elections? Right or wrong is not important, rules are important. In fact they are sacred, especially when everyone agreed to them. If you don’t like the rules then get them changed, but this one has to play out.  So here is the bottom line,

1. Big states are the same as small states
2. Popular votes don’t matter
3. MI and FL don’t matter
4. Super delegates can overturn the will of the pledged delegate, only if they feel that the candidate being nominated is rogue and has no chance in hell to get elected. Just because one is slightly more electable is NOT an argument. So even though Obama is slightly more electable than HRC, he still can’t claim that to be an argument to the super delegates.
5. Winning more states is not an argument, so Obama don’t even go there
6. Raising millions more than HRC also shouldn’t matter because the rules say nothing about that.
7. Having a much smaller disapproval rating (27%) to HRC’s (47%) also should not matter. We must play by the rules
8. So what if HRC messed up her campaign even though she was the front runner and a shoo in for the nomination and Obama was a nobody. He targeted the areas and states that he thought were important and would propel him to victory. This makes him a better planner, with better judgment and an overall smarter person but since rules say nothing of it, all his efforts shouldn’t count towards the nomination.
9. So what if Obama has more character and integrity
10. Only the number of delegates matter
As a parent of a young child, if they appear to be about to break a rule or threaten to break a rule, here's what I do -- I remind them of what the consequesnces will be if they break that rule -- the child is young and needs the reminder.

ADULT party leaders in MI and FL can read (one assumes)and thus new the rules.  Despite their literacy, Howard Dean and the DNC REMINDED them of the rules AND let them know what the consequences would be if they broke the rules.

When the young child goes ahead and breaks the rules, the parent MUST follow through and hand out the appropriate consequences.

FL and MI party leaders WENT AHEAD and broke the rules anyway!!!!!  Neither HRC or BO, are responsible for this.  FL and MI party leaders are!  When child "A" breaks the rules is it fair to punish child "B" or "C"?  

If the impatient Dem leaders of FL and MI had an ounce of maturity, they would have followed the rules, and had an amazing primary sometime before June 3, ANYTIME before June 3.  

Also, can someone explain to me (other than the HRC rediculous argument)why any FL or MI resident would care about anything other than the delegates being seated?  Your individual primary vote was cast to determine a particular delegate assignment.  The popular vote is NOT used in this primary -- delegates are used to determine the outcome!  Even in the general election, your vote is used to determine the popular vote in YOUR state, not the nationwide popular vote (which means nothing!)

FL and MI residents -- be upset at your party leaders and hold them accountable.  Welcome the arrival of a democratic candidate to your state.  Get to know them.  Vote dem, end the war, protect the environment, retain Roe v Wade, help the middle class -- be a Democrat!
‘This proposal doesn't honor the 600,000 people that voted in the January primary,’ Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee said Monday. ‘Their voices should be heard.’

-----

Shut up, if those 600,000 people had voted the other way you'd never want their voices to be heard. You don't care about them or what they deserve, you just want their votes because strangely you still think HRC stands a chance. How can someone who works for a Clinton use 'honor' in one of their sentences?

Obama supports this proposal because those 600,000 people didn't get the chance to vote for him. His name wasn't on the ballot, because he knew it wouldn't count. And so did Hillary, until she needed the votes, then it became outrageous and unacceptable that they might be punished for breaking the rules. Nobody can say that dealing those votes from Florida and Michigan as they went down in January is fair. Obama's delegate pool would be as dry as the Wright story was by the time the media started dropping it had he not campaigned in any of the states, because the name Clinton hasn't left a single house in at least a decade and a half. The Obama name only entered most households a year ago.

-----

A new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests a majority of Democrats don't mind the race continuing. Also, a majority of Dems would like Obama to pick Clinton as his running mate.

-----

I presume USA Today took their polls in bars late at night when everyone present was drunk? All the Dem supporters I've spoken to (including myself) accept Hillary's lost (some of them are/were supporters of her) and agree she needs to fade out while aiding her supporters in transition to Obama. And HRC cannot be an option. I don't care what additional support it would draw in, it cannot happen.

By the way, do we have a schedule for USA Today's bar visits? I'd love to take part in one of those polls.
This Michigan and Florida was not, repeat, was not caused by the Obama campaign. This problem was caused by two distinct causes.
If the democrats lose Florida and Michigan, and therefore lose the general election, the blame will be twofold. First, to the states themselves, because of trying to circumvent the DNC rules by moving their primaries earlier.
The second person to blame, and this is ultimately the most important, is HILLARY CLINTON. Yes that's right. Hillary Clinton.
She knew the rules of the primaries in 2007; she signed off on the rules to not allow the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated. She has been clearly documented in print and video media as being opposed to seating the delegates early in the campaign.
Now, she has manipulated the electorate in Florida and Michigan to join her in her own self serving pity party; fraudulently claiming that she "cares" about them; she does not want them "disenfranchised".
What is obvious is that she came to this revelation in her position when her mismanaged flawed campaign fell hopelessly behind in the race. She felt she could effectively capitalize on this democratic wedge issue to serve her own selfish intent. Hillary, by not supporting her earlier signed statements and her word has unjustly and unfairly given life to this issue.
If she were really about the "rights" of the Michigan and Florida delegates, why did she not accept the compromise offered in the Michigan case? Because she obviously does not care about the people of Michigan; only if they can serve her own twisted need for her bankrupt campaign to be salvaged.
So let's get over this "holier than thou" attempt by the Clinton campaign to fight for Michigan and Florida. The Michigan and Florida voters should be too smart to fall for any more of Hillary's self serving machinations. We need to come together to defeat McCain in the fall.  
This Dem. NOMINATION-election has turned on the "light bulb", but the following questions remain un-asked by our Ostrich-journalist:

    Why is there a "national nomination-election?"

    Why is a national political party allowed to make a "rule" that requires some States to wait to hold nomination-elections until after a few small States have FILTERED many candidates out of the "national nomination-election" that all tax payers must pay for?

    Why are debates on national TV dominated & "ruled" by the two national political parties and the media?

Why are we even considering the two Dem. front runners, that have so little executive experience, have questionable judgement, are not the better qualified when compared to many Americans?

Why are super-liberal Senators, Kennedy, Kerry, McGovern (retired) supporting Obama?  Don't they want a woman in the office they failed to achieve?  They believe Obama can be molded to their agenda?  They have a chance to get-even with the Clintons?  It is NOT because they believe Obama is the strongest candidate the Democratic Party has.

Here you are American voter, you have the right to vote for one of two pre-selected candidates & you can now be proud Americans,(snicker-snicker,) said the back room, political power brokers & big corp. money!

Respectfully,
Billy Bob, Florida
"And who knows how New York, 31 votes and  Hillary's base, will go."

Do you REALLY think we're about to elect McJunta?
Barack will have to take the lead on the FL / MI compromise. Sen. Clinton is simply not equiped right now to do this.

He will either endorse the solutions presented by the states' party committee(s), or come up with an equitable suggestion on his own, but do not look for Clinton to aid this process, there is no longer anything in it for her. She has more to gain by complaining right now...
Woot, GREAT POSTING Zia!!
It's time for all the "offended" people to grow up.  the Florida and Michigan votes are tainted and cannot be fairly counted as they stand.  Anyone who thinks MI was a fair contest should not even be allowed to drive, much less vote.

It's called "mediation" and it's how intelligent grownups resolve disputes.  Your ego is not what's important - saving this country from four more years of Repuglican rule should be foremost in guiding your thoughts and actions.
BJ, Puerto Rico is in the tank for Clinton.

4 million population.  2 million voters.
pro-Obama governor indicted and stripped of his superdelegate vote.

The smirking media hasn't paid any attention to PR because it can't vote in the general election.  But PERCEPTION, not numbers, is the name of the game now.   More migraines for the superdelegates who may wish they hadn't knee-jerked their way to Obama before all votes were in.
We wouldn't have this division in the Democratic party if the DNC applied its rules fairly.

Rule 11.A specifically set the date for the primaries & caucuses for those three states as "no earlier than 22 days before the first Tuesday in February" (Iowa), "no earlier than 14 days before the first Tuesday in February" (New Hampshire), and "no earlier than 7 days before the first Tuesday in February" (South Carolina).
Iowa held their caucuses on January 3rd. That's more than 22 days before the first Tuesday in February. New Hampshire held their primary on January 8th. That's more than 17 days before the first Tuesday in February. And South Carolina held their primary on January 26th. That's more than 7 days before the first Tuesday in February.

Under Rule 11.A., five states were in violation of the Democratic National Committee's Delegate Selection Rules, and as such, all five states should have been punished under Rule 20.C.1.a.

Violation of timing: In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 8.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state's delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state's delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number.

The DNC has alreadly decided not to apply the half delegate penalty to Iowa, SC and NH, so there is no reason to apply it to FL and MI either, and there is absolutely no reason to take away all of the FL and MI delegates.

What this is is blatant sex discrimination. They would never apply the rules differently to disadvantage a black man, but the DNC not only ignores their own pre-established penalty but goes further, all to keep Hillary from winning the nomination.

The DNC will destroy the democratic party if it does not apply the same rule to all of the states.

Count all the votes, seat all the delegates AS THEY WERE ELECTED, not by assigning them arbitrarily to Obama so he can win.

Fair is fair
"Howard Dean and the DNC REMINDED them of the rules AND let them know what the consequences would be if they broke the rules. "

I've seen this again and again and have not been able to find a link.  Perhaps you could provide it?
Read the Rules, the democrats in Florida had no choice. The republicans control the state legislature and the republicans decided when to hold the primary.

And if you don't punish some, you can't enforce the rule against any of them.
What is criminal -- is the "breach of contract" by the clinton camp in breaking a signed agreement.  The clinton's have no respect for the law.  I'm sure Senator Obama is far too nice, but I would sue the clinton's and the DNC for breach of contract if the results are not fair and just according to signed agreement.
OH, NOW he's eager for Florida and Michigan - what a politican he is!  Change? Hope? Only if it benefits him. I'm so over it; I can't wait to see how many write in votes Hillary will get -- besides mine I mean.
There is a reason why the Democrats are often seen as a floundering party. Florida and Michaigan broke the rules and knew full well in advnace what the consequences would be. Now the DNC, in an shamelss attempt to pander to Hillary Clinton, will allow the Florida and Michigan delegates to be added to the total. The DNC has no backbone or guts.
I'm sick of hearing Florigan Whine and even sicker of Hillary calling for their votes to count. Last Summer all of the candidates, including Clinton agreed that because they broke the rules, their delegates would be stripped, the candidates also signed a pledge not to campaign in either state. Well, Obama kept his promise, and Clinton did not. She was the only candidate on the ballot in Michigan and I can't believe she has the nerve to say she "won" and wants the votes counted. You can't agree to the rules, then back door the results. If Clinton weren't ahead in the votes of those two states, she wouldn't be harping on it. Clinton just looks like a sore loser and a spoiler at this point. I hoped Hillary would exit gracefully, but instead she's a disgrace to the Democratic party.
Clinton is an egomaniac, so hungry to get back in the whitehouse, she would rather help McCain, then read the writing on the wall....Obama has won the contest!  Hillary needs to stop her attack machine and move on.
Stan Lawson,
  The only thing criminal about the Michigan primary was your elected officials moving up the date deemed "illegal" by the DNC. Not to mention Obama's name not being on the ballot.  Stop your whining.  If you want to blame someone, blame Harold Ickes: he's one of the people on the DNC that made the decision.  Funny how he is against it now that his candidate has no shot at the nomination.
Stan Lawson,
  The only thing criminal about the Michigan primary was your elected officials moving up the date deemed "illegal" by the DNC. Not to mention Obama's name not being on the ballot.  Stop your whining.  If you want to blame someone, blame Harold Ickes: he's one of the people on the DNC that made the decision.  Funny how he is against it now that his candidate has no shot at the nomination.
Aw com'on, Sillary Clinton grow up.  She is such a sore loser.  Drawing short straws only to bring out the uglyness in the USA.  Even the fruit of your womb came out ugly.
Clinton should be fair. Without campaigning, she had the advantage of her name. That compromise still gives her the advantage in the only metric she has a minor chance, the popular vote.

This is more proof she is trying to tank Obama in the GE


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