First thoughts: Take me home...

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Take me home, country roads: Perhaps the best way to think of today’s West Virginia primary is like the final football game of the regular season, which really won’t impact the teams headed to the playoffs. Yes, the players will once again don their helmets and shoulder pads. Yes, the game will count, as will the statistics. But MUCH, MUCH more has to happen besides this sole game to change the postseason situation. That said, is it a problem if Obama can't come within 20 points of Clinton here? If we set the line at Clinton by 24 points (62%-38%) -- about the same percentage Obama won Mississippi -- would you take Clinton and give the points? Apparently Obama would. If he struggles to get 38%, which is the approximate percentage of the white vote he gets in similar states, shouldn't that be some cause for concern? Sure, West Virginia and Virginia have traded spots in the fall battleground this decade, but with the economy in the pits, a state like West Virginia could be one Dems can carry. Then again, if the economy mattered in the state’s presidential politics, Gore and Kerry should have been able to carry the state, right? There are 28 pledged delegates up for grabs in tonight’s contest, and polls open at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET.

*** Sen. Obama, you’ve just lost West Virginia… what are you going to do next? … ‘I’m going to Florida!’ If you’re Obama, how do you make a potential big loss in West Virginia look like it doesn't bother you? You start campaigning in fall battleground states, which is what Obama is doing. Today, he heads to Missouri; tomorrow, it’s Michigan; and next week, he goes to Florida. While it makes a lot of political sense to focus on your strengths rather than weaknesses (i.e., campaigning in WV and KY), shouldn't he be ramping up his campaign a tad in Kentucky? Doesn't he want to at least come within, say, 10 points in that state to show that he is starting to win over some of these white working-class voters?

*** A Miss(issippi) opportunity: While West Virginia’s primary will obviously receive the most attention, the more competitive -- and more interesting -- race today occurs in Mississippi, where Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R) compete in a run-off to replace former Rep. Roger Wicker (R), who was appointed to fill Trent Lott’s Senate seat. Democrats and Republicans agree that the contest is a pure toss-up. A Childers win would represent the Democrats’ third-straight win of a GOP-held seat (the others took place in Illinois and Louisiana); a Davis win would be a nice shot in the arm for a Republican Party that hasn’t seen much go its way in the past two years. But make no mistake that the GOP has the most to lose in this district that Bush won by 62% in 2004. “If the Republicans lose, it will be significant because they won’t be able to blame the candidate” like they did in Illinois and Louisiana, says Nathan Gonzales of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** What happens when specials get nationalized: The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman adds that it’s important not to ignore this point about the Mississippi run-off: It’s a nonpartisan election, which means Childers doesn’t have that “D” next to name, and that’s a significant advantage for the Democrat. But that hasn’t stopped Republicans from trying their best to nationalize the contest, in part by tying Childers to Obama. Last month, Davis unveiled a TV ad mentioning Jeremiah Wright and “bitter.” In addition, Cheney stumped for Davis yesterday, and the state’s top Republicans -- like Wicker and Gov. Haley Barbour -- are out in full force for Davis. Per Gonzales, this contest disabuses the idea that Obama is a political asset for Democrats in all parts of the country. “I think this race proves that he’s not going to be a powerful downballot force everywhere.” That said, the match-up appears to be a win-win situation for the Democrats. A Childers victory would be yet another win in an overwhelmingly GOP district and it would come even as Republicans tried to make Obama a boogeyman in the race. A Davis victory, meanwhile, would come after the GOP devoted precious resources and time to a district that Bush won by 62% four years ago. 

*** Five big turning points: Yesterday, we began discussing some under-appreciated turning points in the Clinton-Obama race that put Clinton where she stands now: on the brink of elimination. Yesterday’s point was the role Illinois’ proximity to key primary battlegrounds; today, it’s Chris Dodd and the October 2007 Philly debate. While many remember that debate -- which set off a two-week media firestorm over Clinton’s answer to a question over driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants -- few remember the role Dodd played in it. In the lightning round portion at the end of the debate, Clinton was asked about a her statement that Eliot Spitzer’s plan to allow illegal immigrants to have driver’s licenses made a lot of sense. Following that, Dodd disagreed with the plan, and when Clinton said that she, too, didn’t agree with the plan, Dodd interjected, “No, no, no … you thought it made sense to do it.” That exchange then allowed Edwards jump in: “Unless I missed something, Sen. Clinton said two different things in the course of about two minutes just a few minutes ago.” Then came Obama: “I was confused on Senator Clinton's answer. I can't tell whether she was for it or against it.” And, voila, the aftermath paved the way for Iowa to be competitive two months later. Remember, this wasn't a point in the debate that the media jumped on Clinton; it was her fellow candidates doing it, and that might be why it resonated. 

*** McCain's good anti-Bush day: For a guy whom Democrats see as a potential Bush third term, McCain got some good anti-Bush press with his global-warming speech in Oregon yesterday. The New York Times: "Senator John McCain sought to distance himself from President Bush…” The Washington Post: “Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) made a sharp break with President Bush…” And the LA Times: "Distancing himself from President Bush…” Now, if just every day could be a global-warming day for McCain…

*** The right’s Nader? Former GOP Rep. Bob Barr announced yesterday that he would run for president on the Libertarian ticket. If he gets a percentage or two, could he swing a few states? “Barr, who has hired Ross Perot's former campaign manager, acknowledged that some Republicans have tried to discourage him from running. But he said he's getting in the race to win, not to play spoiler or to make a point.” Still, if he gets a percentage or two, could he swing a few states? Pay special attention to Georgia, by the way. If Barr's on the ballot there, doesn't he get 3-4%, and isn't that enough to push Obama across the finish line if the black vote surges as expected? Where else?

*** Back on the Hill: Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, it looks like Obama and Clinton will be back in the Senate today for a procedural vote on a big union issue: a bill that would give collective bargaining power to state and local first responders. The vote is expected in the morning, but the exact time is unclear at this point. Depending on the timing, the senators/candidates could also vote on a couple of energy proposals: a Democratic measure to suspend filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and a broad Republican package focused on oil production, but also calls for suspension of the SPR. The Democratic version should pass, but the White House is against it.

*** On the trail: In addition to her activity on Capitol Hill, Clinton holds her primary night party in Charleston, WV; McCain, in Washington State, holds an environmental roundtable in North Bend and then raises money in Bellevue; and Obama campaigns first in Kentucky and then in Missouri. Also, Bill Clinton stumps in Montana.
 
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 7 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 175 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 252 days
 
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