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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



'Why West Virginia matters'

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 12:25 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
Hours before the West Virginia polls close, the Clinton campaign just released a memo that tries to raise the stakes of today's contest, which Clinton is expected to win by a considerable margin. "Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy," the memo says.

More: "In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today's outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices. He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia-Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State."

Below is the full memo...

To: Interested Parties
From: Clinton Campaign
Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Re: Why West Virginia Matters

With a record turnout expected in today's primary, West Virginia Democrats will make clear who they believe is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. McCain in the Fall.

The Mountain State is used to picking winners. Every nominee has carried the state's primary since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916.

Democrats carried West Virginia in 1992 and 1996, but lost the state-and the White House--in 2000 and 2004. Hillary has predicted victory against Sen. McCain in West Virginia based on the strength of her economic message.
Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy.

In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today's outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices.

He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia-Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State.

Despite being the so-called "presumptive nominee" and benefiting from these advantages, Sen. Obama has been unable to close a significant gap in the polls.

Sen. Clinton has already won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. With a win in West Virginia, Sen. Clinton will have once again proven her greater ability to win in the key swing states.

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Comments

Senator Clinton is a true leader. She has not once backed down and this is who I want representing my family to the rest of the World…

Obama's only valid decision was to blacklist the Rev. Wright, the only problem was that he would have NEVER done it if the media did not pressure him… He can not make a decision to save his life so how is he going to save ours?

Can anyone PLEASE just tell us five things that Senator Obama has done for either his state or our country?

A good post from another blog which hopefully get posted here at MSNBC.

Two things?

Thought so… Big mistake people…
The Clinton campaign's antics get more and more sad by the day . . .

. . . and even today's "win" in WV is completely overshadowed by the continuing flood of superdelegate commitments today

It is over folks . . . get used to it!!!
I hope Obama supporters understand that EVERY name they call Hillary Clinton and her supporters will be held against them when Obama is begging for out Vote.

Clinton Republicans for McCain
Does the Clinton camp realize that every time they write "we won Michigan" is just takes the steam out of any otherwise logical argument they may have had.

Heck, I tied Obama in Michigan -- maybe I can win there in the fall.
She just continues to be delusional doesn't she? If she wants to heal the party and help win the white house in Sept. She needs to start mending fences. But of course we are talking about "everything including the kitchen sink" Clinton
Senator Obama has more money to spend because he has more ordinary supporters-- his average donation last reporting period (March) was $96.  It certainly looks like more Democrats, Independents and Republicans are "excited and energized" by Senator Obama's candidacy than the candidacy of his remaining opponent.  
OH Pul - eeeze!!!

I'm dizzy from all the spinning they do!
I appreciate where you are coming from, but is the foul language necessary to make your point?  First Read - aren't you supposed to be monitoring this?

Also - not everyone is comfortable giving out their name to every Tom, Dick, and Harry that demands it.  Maybe they want to protect themselves from angry idiots who act like they would do them harm.  In case you haven't noticed, despite (or in spite of) your political leanings, there are a lot of NUTS in this world who can take things too far.  That should not limit people from being able to speak out.

BTW - it's not being a chicken s*** if you don't serve in the military.  Last I checked, it was a VOLUNTARY armed forces.  

The National Guard was designed TO PROTECT FOLKS IN THIS COUNTRY - not to be shipped overseas.  And if you want to get mad at someone, get mad at your precious Pentagon for playing commercials how it's "one weekend a month, two weeks a year" as they used to market the NG.  If you weren't busy running YOUR mouth off, maybe you would realize that.

Don't mock what YOU don't understand.
Spin, spin, spin.

It will be great when she finally packs it in! We're soooo tired of the spin...

Hey, Hillary! You lost! Get over it!

MSNBC Please stop giving Hillary and her campaign a platform for these memos.

It is over !!    Obama 08
Just goes to prove Hillary and company just can't stop the lashing out.  I was on the ground in Jefferson County on Saturday - her campaign may be slightly surprised.
Man, HRC is delusional, I'm actually embarassed for her now.  The fact that she and her people can say these things with a straight face is amazing.  Of course, remember how convincing she was in her shamrock scarf talking about the "sniper fire?"  She'd be another Bush 3rd term-they only lie to us b/c we can't be trusted to make the right decision if we're given the truth!
Wow, after all that spin, I'm feeling dizzy.  Face facts, Obama has beat you in pledged delegates, super delegates, states won, total votes cast, and money raised.  All the spin in the world with not change the math one bit.
I'm sorry, but this is delusional. There's a line between being a "fighter" and clinging desperately and destructively to a lost cause, and her campaign has crossed it. She's actually staking her electability case on West Virginia? As West Virginia goes, so goes the nation? What a stupid argument. Correlation is not the same as cause, geniuses. They've flipped their lids entirely.
A toothless victory, much like the one in Arkansas
WV is clearly TOO little TOO LATE.

44 States have already weighed weighed in and Obama will be the Nominee.

The Clinton Campagn can spin WV any way they want but it will not change that Obama has:

More Pledged Delegates
More "automatic" Delegates
More Contests
More Popular Vote
and Better GE Polling against McCain

ie The RACE IS OVER!


We get it, Senator Clinton.  Only the people that vote for you are important.  
Why must they continue building their arguement on Florida and Michigan, She signed off on them as well.  Obama is spending money in every state to give the voters a chance to get to know him--I guess Hillary is forgetting all the states she wrote off--Why make it sound bad that he is giving attention to everyone even if he has accepted that he will not carry the state. Not to mention that he has been given the money to spend, it's not borrowed with the implication of it will be paid back.  Oh that's right it's only right if Hillary does it.

Also does anyone else wonder how much taxpayer money has been spent on Hillary's campaign with the Secret Service covering Bill and Chelsea as well as Hillary from day one--lets add that to the 20Million in Debt since non of the other canidates have been spending our money as fast as her.  
On the issue of 'raw racism':

IS the Clinton support machine is in a full gear to destroy Obama? I was hoping it would not go there.

Wake up America!  Please, do vote for ever whom you want but don’t intentionally spread hateful and mostly unsubstantiated comments about Obama.

Some people on the various posts sound far worse than Rev. Wright.
She has every right to continue, even the the race is effectively over.  

Hopefully, she can play it right and not do the party any damage.  The real target is John  McCain....we must not let him continue to get a free ride

....she can have her bragging rights...real or perceived (MI?FL, year right!!!!)

Dems united in victory
Hillary Clinton has a way with B-O-L-O-G-N-A...
The so- called "swing" states are no longer the only and most important states that a candidate has to win.  Senator Obama has shown this throughout the election process- he has brought other states and more  voters into play and shown that they are as important to him and to the electoral process.  He has  garnered the support of high powered politicians in every state because of the broad base of support that he has developed.  And his campaign has raised more money because of the support and vision of those voters that support him; for all her claims that she has the broader base of support, her campaign hasn't been able to translate that into votes outside of those "swing" states and certainly hasn't been able to turn that base into cash money to support her campaign.  Why is that?  Where are all these staunch supporters of hers?
Blah, blah, blah... "PAY ATTENTION TO ME!!! I AM HILLARY AND I APPROVE THIS MESSAGE!!!"... blah, blah, blah...

She's so happy when the media is singing her praises, but she can't accept reality when it doesn't.
I'm so sick, sick, sick of the spin, spin, spin. Liars, cheats, losers. Go away, Clintons
Clinton's people can keep spinning and spinning and spinning.  It won't change the results.  Obama is winning by every metric that conceivably matters.
Pure Propaganda!
The key to this memo is that it's to "Interested Parties" and I don't think there are any, anymore.
Hillary Clinton and her followers are playing with fire. If in any way she damages Obama before the general election she will damage her political future as well. What she should focus on now is fence mending.
How sad that Hillary can't seem to go out with some dignity left.  Her all or nothing approach will end with her having to get "euthenized on the track" after coming in second...
Suddenly small states matter.  First, it was "the path to Pennsylvania Avenue runs through Pennsylvania" and now it's WV that's critical to the nomination.  Why not only hold primaries in the states where Clinton is favored???  Instead of dragging this on and pointing out Obama's weaknesses, Clinton should rally behind Obama and help him win over these constituencies since she has no chance at all of winning this nomination.
Of course, Obama has outspent them. They don't have any money!

My 5 year old can out spend them with her weekly allowance alone.

Duh, Hillary........!
Go away Clinton!
The more the Clinton camp sends out such lame ass memos, the more I come to despise the Clintons.

A white, hard-working woman, who wouldn't vote for the Clintons if my life depended on it, regardless of how much they tried to convince me that she's God's Gift to Women and hard-working White Americans.
Anyone claiming that Obama won't win are either lying to themselves, can't read a poll, or are lying to you.  Here are the most recent Obama / McCain polls via Realclearpolitics.com

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 04/30 - 05/12 -- 47.8 43.3 Obama +4.5
ABC News/Wash Post 05/08 - 05/11 1122 A 51 44 Obama +7.0
Gallup Tracking 05/07 - 05/11 4370 RV 47 43 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking 05/09 - 05/12 1600 LV 47 46 Obama +1.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 05/01 - 05/08 -- 46 40 Obama +6.0
Ipsos 04/30 - 05/04 755 RV 46 42 Obama +4.0
USA Today/Gallup 05/01 - 05/03 803 LV 47 48 McCain +1.0
CBS News/NY Times 05/01 - 05/03 601 RV 51 40 Obama +11.0
Hotline/FD 04/30 - 05/03 803 RV 47 43 Obama +4.0

Obama leads by statisically significant margins in all polls excot for 2 of 8.  His average lead is 4.5 points.  Get behind our nominee!!

Obama 08
HRC is pathetic!  27 SD's have gone to Obama since last Tuesday & WV only has 28 Delegates for this primary, sounds like a wash to me.  She has made up zero ground.  Give it up Hillary please!
What is with these mixed messages from the Clinton's? It's wierd...funny thing..Obama campaign hasn't said a peep about Clinton and has been respectful evan after those USA Today comments. Is Lanny Davis writting these letters?
True, so true. Obama will be creamed in Nov. if he is the nominee. Unless his supporters realize and stop the name calling and mud sling towards Hilary enough to convince them to vote for a neophyte.
Geesh too bad that Hillary lost Guam by "7" votes, otherwise Guam would have been the deciding factor. She is totally obsessed with her obsession and she is playing all sorts of cards, especially "three card monty" with the good people of West Virginia. Well, I'm sure she'll feel good about her victory tonight and will spin the bajoogels out of it...but for what...please, more superdelegates endorse Obama so she can see that it's over. To the good folks of WVA...please help your candidate to see that the fight is over ....throw the towel in for her from your corner because from where she's at she can't see the end.  
It's hard to let the soap opera go and face the inevitable but it's time to look forward.
Oh please give me a break...........The spin is giving me a headache!
David Letterman recently said, HRC and her campaign "are in a state of denial."

He used this comment as part of his stand up routine one night, so it was meant as a joke.

I think now it is authentic, a reality, and the letter from the HRC camp on this blog proves it.

I would not be surprised if even HRC supporters start to question what HRC is doing and saying.

HRC is in West Virgina.  For her, a state of denial, but for the rest of us, she is in West Virginia, one of 50 states.
Hillary is the person on your couch,when the party's over and you just want to go to bed....
Good Grief!  
Just Pathetic.
Why everytime both ways?  'he hasn't even come to WV.  he won't campaign here, he won't debate us here, etc.'

Oh, wait:

'He has outspent us, has more staff, blahzy, blahzy, blah...'

Barack Obama spent two months dominating election after election and all that could be said was wait and see what happens in Ohio and Texas.  After a ten point victory in Ohio, a win(?) in Texas led to nothing knew in the race it was wait until Pennsylvania.  A month later and 9.2 point win and Clinton is acting like she isn't still trying to catch up after Feb and March.  West Virginia should decide it all.  

As if WV is going to vote for Obama with Hillary waving the "Vote White!" signs.

West Virginia: Winner take all!  Please!
So what?

It's over. The Supers are all going for him.
WV can do nothing to move Hillary into the white house.  That ship has sailed.  WV could pay a pivotal role in electing HRC to the position of Imperial Wizard.  Hard working WHITE folk.
Who else is listening to this moron again? Why can't they get out of their spin mode and unite the party. Obama should not even respond to this gabbage but should focus his attention on John McCain.
Blah, blah, blah, heard it all before, and it still doesn't change the numbers.
One last attempt to change the media narrative. Don't blame her campaign for trying. Don't think it will work though...the math is what it is.
The Clinton Campaign have every right to continue in this contest, even though everyone else knows they have already lost. And they can keep moving the goal posts all they like, keep changing the number of delegates needed to win to 2209, keep demanding that Florida and Michigan be included (even when they had broken the Party rules and were correctly penalised for it), keep saying that she's the best candidate for President even though she has mismanged her campaign and lost, keep yelling and crying, etc. etc. etc.
It all don't matter - for the rest of the Democratic Party is moving on to General Election gear with Sen. Obama as the candidate.
Maybe, when they are tired of being ignored, they will bow out... but by then it will no longer be graceful, will it?


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