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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



'Why West Virginia matters'

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 12:25 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
Hours before the West Virginia polls close, the Clinton campaign just released a memo that tries to raise the stakes of today's contest, which Clinton is expected to win by a considerable margin. "Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy," the memo says.

More: "In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today's outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices. He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia-Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State."

Below is the full memo...

To: Interested Parties
From: Clinton Campaign
Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Re: Why West Virginia Matters

With a record turnout expected in today's primary, West Virginia Democrats will make clear who they believe is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. McCain in the Fall.

The Mountain State is used to picking winners. Every nominee has carried the state's primary since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916.

Democrats carried West Virginia in 1992 and 1996, but lost the state-and the White House--in 2000 and 2004. Hillary has predicted victory against Sen. McCain in West Virginia based on the strength of her economic message.
Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy.

In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today's outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices.

He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia-Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State.

Despite being the so-called "presumptive nominee" and benefiting from these advantages, Sen. Obama has been unable to close a significant gap in the polls.

Sen. Clinton has already won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. With a win in West Virginia, Sen. Clinton will have once again proven her greater ability to win in the key swing states.

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First of all the great state of West Virginia is what it is. A win for Hillary you did not hear the Obama camp blow out of proportion the win in NC or MS or any of the other great wins. It's the Clinton Campaign that has winners envy in this pissing match.By the way be nice about WV my daddy was born there. Even though there are some problems there I am sure that there are some very nice people there as well. To those people still talking about more experience. Tell me why the less experienced candidate has been able to keep finances in order when you hear the complaint that he is out spending us 3 to 1 , 4 to 1 , 2 to 1. Tell me why all that experience did not translate into more wins. Why does this little state means so much win little states did not matter before. What if this had been a caucus would it have not counted then. You know that ever changing goal post is getting smaller all the time for Obama and larger and closer for Clinton. I understand the logic of continuing the Charade. REcoup cash from failed campaign.
So much for ending her campaign with dignity and grace. She's delusional and petty.

MORNING JOE:

MATTHEWS: You know, you did begin the evening last Tuesday, Terry, with the same sort of exuberance, saying the momentum was with Hillary. Because we were looking at the early returns from Indiana. Of course they turned out to be much closer than many had thought, including you. Do you really believe, under sodium pentathol, that the momentum in this campaign is with Hillary Clinton?

McAULIFFE: First of all, I'm always exuberant, Chris. That is my nature.

MATTHEWS: But I'm talking about the sodium pentathol. Have you taken an injection to add truth to that exuberance.

BRZEZINSKI: Maybe it's methamphetamine.

MCAULIFFE: I believe a win is a win, she won Indiana, we're going to win tonight.
Hillary, please have some dignity. It's over. You cannot win. For the good of the party. For the good of the nation. Please. Do the right thing.
SHE HAS TO BE KIDDING, SHE WON FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN, GOT DARE, SHE WAS SUPPOSE TO HAVE THE WON BY SUPER TUESDAY, SHE WAS SUPPOSE TO HAVE ALL THE HEAVY WEIGHTS BEHIND HER, BILL WAS SUPPOSE TO HAND HER THE BLACK VOTE, SHE WAS SUPPOSE TO TAKE HER NAME OFF THE BALLOT IN FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN, AND THE LAST TIME I CHECKED ILLONOIS WAS A BIG STATE. HER REAL HOME STATE, HILL PLEASE STOP YOU ARE MAKING YOUR SELF LOOK BAD AND THE ONLY REASON WHY HE OUT SPENT YOU IN WEST VA, IS BECAUSE YOUR BROKE. HILL, HILL, HILL, PLEASE STOP BEFORE YOUR ARE OUT OF POLITICS ALL TOGETHER!!!!
Again, I think it's a misconception to decide automatically that Clinton's win in WV somehow shows that Obama will lose the state.  Certainly Obama is going to have to reintroduce himself in a general election framework but I think that continuing to utter these words, "do you want more of the same or do you want change?" will sway many of Clinton's supporters.  Do you honestly believe that anti-war Democrats are going to guarantee the war for another 4 years just so they can elect Hillary Clinton?  I think not.  I believe that Obama needs to come out with a strong message that everyone can embrace.  In this way, he can take a page from Clinton.  If he finds specifics that lower middle class Americans can agree with on the economy, then while some of them may not necessarily like him or believe that he's one of them, they will support him instead of McCain.
The KEY word I guess, is DELEGATES! what is it that these Clinton folks don't get? there is no more room for spins. Get real! This is a primary, determined by delegates won! NOT swing states won! You guys are making a FOOL out of yourselves. GET REAL. It is OVER!!!!
OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT!
It is beyond me how HRC can claim Michigan and Florida as a win?

Obama wasn't even ON the Ballot in Michigan!

The Spin machine out of the Clinton campaign represents a level of disgenuiness unfathomable by anybody outside of Fox News.
Hillary doesn't have a case.   Obama is clearly the frontrunner and she needs to be put to rest.  Hillary is the loser where it counts and she should concede.

America for Obama - Yes We Can!!!
It Matters because:

First: Obama has not won the nomination yet.

Second. If he does win the nomination, he will not win in November.

Third: It will not be because of racism but because he is NOT qualified.
Quit begging, it's over.
Spin Spin Spin

The only ones that remain excited and engergized by Hillbilly's campaign are the ignorant, uneducated, white racist inbred electorate in a behind the times state.

It's over! She came up short.
It's time for her to throw her support to Obama!
Hillary has a hard time following the rules.  Concede Hillary, Obama has ruled!
I infuriates me that Clinton continues to claim victory in Michigan and Florida (especially Michigan).  I know for a fact that many people did not go to the polls in these states because they were told that their votes would not count.  I think this is so incredibly arrogant and misleading.  I hope the people of WV can see through all of this garbage and vote for Barrack Obama.
This "outspent" message is tiresome.  The truth is, the Clinton's have spent nearly just as much campaigning across the country as has Obama ($163 million vs. $189 million).  But they spent it differently, such as with "HIS" and "HERS" jets (Bill and Hillary were rarely at the same location).  Plus, they never planned on campaigning past Super Tuesday so blew their wad early on.
We all know why "WVA" "matters" cause hillsy can win it!  Same reason NC DOESN'T matter.  Same reason Obama picking up more "stuper" delegates than the entire state has to offer DOESN'T matter.

The reason is her mental illness, the symptoms of which we will all suffer from & include a McCain victory!
I find this offensive, suggesting I am not smart enough to realize her political games. How dumb does Hillary think we are? Her campaign is over. She is just moving the goal post over and over again.
It is getting hard to remember anything good about the Clintons. Hillary has not won Florida or Michigan. What really stands out now is all of Bill's ladies (none of which was Hillary) that resulted in his adminstrations eventual loosing of the House and the WH, and Hillary's continual lying. What good has Hillary done?

And as far as her management capabilties go, how did her campaign get to be so far in debt? She started out with the majority of super's, a vast war chest, and name recognition. How in the heck can you manage to blow that? With her in the WH, how long before WW3 starts?
Obama is the frontrunner and will win the Presidency.  What is it about the Clintons that they don't get.  So what, she won West Virgina, look at what Obama has won!  Go away Hillary!

Go Obama - we love you
Hillary is really nailing her George Wallace act.  That used to be his slogan, "send 'em a message."  Hillary, we got it then and we get it now.  West Virginia like the rest of the deep south does not want a negro in the White House.
Every time the Clintons mention her "victory" in Michigan it makes me nauseous. The manipulative nature the state party's actions this primary season, and Clinton's actions in saying one thing and doing another, make her continued victory claims just reprehensible.
Spin spin spin, aren't they (Clintons0 dizzy already?
Und de 8th Panzer groupen vill break through to Berlin und push the Russians back to Moscow!!!!
Even now secret vengenge veapons are being deployed to defeat der enemy so that i may exit der Bunker and cease der nomination!!! Dr. Morell! Qvick, distribute der kool aiden!
Is anyone even taking Wolfson & Co. seriously anymore?

I should probably clarify that: Is anyone with any kind of grip on reality even taking Wolfson & Co. seriously anymore?
once again another 'defining moment'...when are the Clintons learn how to be honest, classy and realistic...it is OVER...we need to move on to the general...where most Americans, regardless of race, gender, economic standing, and even Republicans are sick of the Bush/Clinton dynasties ...we want change!!
Yeah, yeah whatever!  You still LOSE!!  Even your PLEDGED DELEGATES are leaving you!  Oh stop it!  I swear: The ONLY reason the press and the media are even considering her resetting essentially the contest rules, the ONLY reason she is getting ANY air play, the ONLY reason there is ANY perception of "pressure" on the DNC at the end of the month is because she has the last name of democratic/national celebrity - Clinton.  If it was Obama acting the way she was acting, moving the goal posts, trying to redefine this & that he would not have been given a second look, drowned out by DIRECT CALLS STRAIGHT from "Queen Anointed" Mouth to drop out!!  Obama has been giving her a wide berth and shown her an INCREDIBLE and at times costly amount of restraint!  Please Media - Abrams, Olberman, Chuck, Chris: Call a Spade a SPADE!  She is requesting preferential treatment!  HER arguments are bunk!  She is full of it!  Won't you people in the media CALL HER ON IT???!!!
She sure has a funny way of campaigning for the VP spot.
The nomination is over in every way that makes a nominee in the democratic process.  However, what isn't over the divisiveness of HRC and her campaign, she is not in this alone and to be able to win a couple more is for self and book deals.
If he is putting in all that money and ground forces I guess he is not dismissed it totally. How many states did HRC dismiss, 11 in a roll when Obama beat her. The party is over time to move on and unify the party to take on McBush.
This is the type of rehtoric that has cost clinton the nomination.  I can't even feel sorry for her anymore.  She makes it easy to dislike her.  This is one white, female Jew that makes under $50,000 who would never cast a vote for her.  I have already voted in my primary for Senator Obama and will again this fall.  
West Virginia may be a win for Hillary but it is over for her.  We need to focus on the general election and Senator McCain.  Surely Hillary should understand this.  What is it that she doesn't get??? Is this a fatal attraction?  Go awy Hillary!  We are tired of you.
CHECK THIS ONE OUT.....

On Feb 5th, the Republicans had the first part of their primary election.  On the day that McCain essentially wrapped up the nomination, here was the results from West Virginia:

Huckabee:  52%
Romney:  47%
McCain:  1%  !!!!!!!!

So by the Clinton "primaries are good indications of the general" metric, if OBAMA gets 2% today, he'll beat McCain in West Virginia in the general.

So that's the new goal for Obama, set by the Clintons themselves:  2% in West Virginia

...THIS IS WHY CLINTON'S LOGIC IS ILLOGICAL!!!.


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