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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



What might Hillary do?

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 6:02 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Ron Allen
These days, it can feel a bit strange being in the Hillary Clinton press caravan.
 
The morning newspaper headlines scream about how she should cash it all in, how the race is over. Magazine covers proclaim Barack Obama the winner. We all read the polls. We all do the math. We all think we're pretty smart.
 
It can feel a bit odd to carry those newspapers and all of those thoughts onto her press plane and watch her cheerfully appear there up front, ready to take on another day, never showing any hint of doubt. Nothing at all suggests it's not just yet another day on the long march to the nomination.
 
But while watching her, questioning her, and listening to her give speech after speech to crowds of passionate supporters, you can't help but wonder what is she really thinking? Only she, and perhaps a few people very close, know.
  
She has to be upset, disappointed, anyone would be but angry? How would you feel if you had your eyes on a promotion at the office, had worked real hard, had the experience, had paid the dues, and then someone younger and less experienced, someone you'd given advice to, mentored a bit, came along and ruined your dream?
 
Colleagues, and even friends and relatives, ask when we're coming home? When will she drop out? The answer from the campaign's point of view is that we're going all the way to Denver in August perhaps, until there's a nominee. How can that square with those headlines saying it’s over?
 
They're planning for Oregon and Kentucky next week. We're off to South Dakota before that. At the same time, we know Obama is heading to Michigan and Florida. We know he probably will proclaim "victory" with a majority of pledged delegates after Oregon. 
 
Meanwhile, Clinton's aides still talk about how "electability" is all that really matters -- and those swing voters, swing states, and even swing superdelegates. Heard that last one for the first time on the day Obama took the superdelegate lead.
 
Ultimately, of course, the question is how can you be more electable than someone you can't beat in most of the elections you've competed in head to head? Isn't the score 31 to 16? (with Texas for neither candidate).
 
Still, Clinton presses on in West Virginia. She tells crowds that every Democratic nominee has carried the state since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without the state. Will a big win here, and the logic of history, trump all that's gone before it?

Someone said it’s a bit like a marathon runner who is determined to complete the entire 26-mile course. I've never done it. But I've seen the joy and satisfaction and even pain on the faces of those runners finishing hours after the winner -- competing on their own terms.

A couple of days ago, I ran into a friend who's an entrepreneur, with a business a few years old.

"Of course," she said, Clinton should continue to the end. She then then pointed out that there were many doubters along her way from that first business idea to a successful enterprise who just knew it would all end in failure.

You have to follow your dreams as far as possible, she advised, and then headed off to a staff meeting. Business is quite good. Good thing she didn't quit. But then again, another editorial today was certain Clinton should get out for the good of the party, or for her own good.

At a farmer's market in Charleston, W.V., on primary day, Clinton wears that ever-optimistic smile, shakes every hand in sight, poses for pictures with anyone and everyone. She's a star! They absolutely love her.

"She looks shorter than on TV."

"Prettier."

"I'm standing two feet from her," a man tells someone on his cell phone who probably doesn't believe him.

"Keep going, keep going," urges a woman almost tugging on her arm.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think she will do just that -- at least until every state has voted. I think she wants the satisfaction of finishing the race, especially since so many are saying she shouldn't.
 
Clinton often tells a story about playing girl's basketball in elementary school. No one was allowed to cross half court. You either played offense or defense -- three-on-three. You were only allowed three dribbles. Why? The answer was something vague, she says, about how playing like the boys would be bad for girls’ hearts, or something.
 
I sense the senator is now determined to finish this game, by her own rules, and regardless of what the boys have to say.

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Obama:
-Is rated the most liberal member of the US Senate.
-Wants to raise the payroll taxes/self-employment tax for working people.
-Has an F rating from the NRA.
-Favors partial-birth abortion.
-Launched his political career in 1995 at the home of William Ayers, a terrorist.
-Is business pals with Tony Rezko, a Syrian-born slumlord.
-Has a thuggish wife who hates America even though she got to Harvard Law School via affirmative action.
-Is the son of a Muslim and an atheist and became a Christian by joining a church that advocates black liberation theology and where the pastor begged God to damn America.
-Is a stammering, stuttering speaker without a script and teleprompter.
-Has never passed through legislation on a controversial issue. Consistently voting "present" on tough issues rather than voting a firm YES or NO.
Clinton might fight all the way to the Denver convention.

First: Obama has not won the nomination yet.

Second. If he does win the nomination, he will not win in November.

Third: It will not be because of racism but because he is NOT qualified.
Actually, Obama has more elected experience than Hillary. I guess hanging around her too long rubs off on people!
Hillary gets a huge 2 to 1 win tonight in West Virginia. This is a good time to go out on a high note, since she stands no chance of winning the nomination. This is a beauty contest only, giving Clinton more crowing rights and more reason to divide this party down racial lines. Here's hoping the superdelegates will bombard Clinton Wednesday, so there is no question about who the nominee is. We need to focus on John McCain, right now!
"How would you feel if you had your eyes on a promotion at the office, had worked real hard, had the experience, had paid the dues, and then someone younger and less experienced, someone you'd given advice to, mentored a bit, came along and ruined your dream?"

Well, I'd be a little introspective and figure out that I screwed it up with my dirty politics, harsh and divisive language, and win-at-all-costs tactics...

Don't worry Senator Clinton.

Your supporters will teach the MSM, Obama and his supporters a lesson in November by voting for McCain

McCain will be the President of the USA.

Clinton Republicans for McCain.


This is the most rediculas waste of space I have seen coming from first read. We really don't feel sorry for this politician. Her hell is of her own making. Please please don't disrespect your viewers/ readers with such trash.
It's called Martyrdom.

Classy Hill, really classy.

Your money just wasn't big enough for OUR money.

Even the young evangelicals are dropping the GOP of their parents to follow in their hearts what they know is right.

You'll never see Obama step on HRC or McCain's neck, though.

Get it? That's the point.
She can start a new Political Party called "Whites Only"

This way she'll get all the votes and win her party's nomination.

She better act fast because come 2010 we New Yorkers are sending her gimmicky behind back to the wet hell she came from. She will NOT be re-elected!

Schumer, Rangel and Hillary, pack your trash because you will NOT be re-elected in 2010 and 2012 in NYS!

HOLLA!
Domenico, stop your drooling and realize that Hillary is delusional.  

This is journalism?  Wondering about how she feels?  WHY NOT ASK HER EVERY DAY?  You are not HER press corps.  You are OUR press corps.  

Gather the truth, not just conjecture.
I beg to disagree that she has more experience than Obama?What are your yardsticks for judging experience?
More years living at the white house as first lady?More years on earth?Give me a break!
I am an Obama supporter.

I do admire her persistence and determination.  

As a woman, I think my key objection to her is that I think she has a ne'er-do-well criminal husband who should have been impeached and put out of the White House.  I don't want Bill back and like any couple, they are inseparable and their criminal past dooms both of them.

I will add that the Clintons' treatment of Bill's young mistresses as used Kleenex makes me think that Hillary is anything but a feminist. I never understand why women support Hillary after the way she supports her husband's treatment of his mistresses.  That is just so wrong.

If Hillary Clinton was a good candidate for the democratic party, she would drop out now to unite the party and look towards the general election this November.  By staying in the race, she is only hurting her parties chances and is leaving everyone wondering,"what are her intentions"?  Is she trying to hurt Obama's chances on purpose?
Hillary's gathering stories for her career as a speaker. She might not get to follow her husband as President but she could trump him in speaking fees. So what does she want? She wants a good story to tell.
I am an Obama supporter.

I do admire her persistence and determination.  

As a woman, I think my key objection to her is that I think she has a ne'er-do-well criminal husband who should have been impeached and put out of the White House.  I don't want Bill back and like any couple, they are inseparable and their criminal past dooms both of them.

I will add that the Clintons' treatment of Bill's young mistresses as used Kleenex makes me think that Hillary is anything but a feminist. I never understand why women support Hillary after the way she supports her husband's treatment of his mistresses.  That is just so wrong.

Oh, isn't that just all flowery and a skies parting moment. I'm sure the light has come down to shine on Hillary as well. Desperate. That's what drives Hillary. Do any of you on her press caravan ever clue her in to the facts, or are you just along to watch the train wreck? If not, you can be as harsh as this post. Someone needs to tell Hillary it's over in words she can understand. You would tell a friend they had a booger hanging from their nose wouldn't you?
I'm sorry, was it a journalist who wrote this or Hillary's best girlfriend.  

Not sure what "dues" she paid, but it's good to know her loyal followers sill believe she was "owed" the presidency.  I was pretty sure this was America and here we vote, we don't have a monarchy.   She didn't earn a darn thing.  Obama had just as much right to run and we as American citizens had the right to select him over her.

Just for the record I am female, middle aged, working class, no college education, i.e., Hillary's supposed base.  Except for one thing, I don't vote for people who insult my intelligence.


She should keep going until all of the contests are over.  She is amazingly strong and proud, she deserves to stay in it until the end.  After that, she should work as hard as she can to get Sen. Obama elected.

This country can't stand another 4 years of Bush/McCain policies.

Obama 08'
Math, it is what it is.  

As of Tuesday, May 13, 2008

(omitting FL and MI)

There are 452.5 available delegates remaining to get to 2025

BHO needs 152 or 33.6% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 322.5 or 71.3% of the total remaining delegates


IF you count FL (as is) and MI (as proposed)

There are still only 452.5 available delegates remaining to get to 2130

BHO needs 208 or 46% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 333.5 or 73.7% of the total remaining delegates


IF you count FL (as is) and skip MI

There are still only 452.5 available delegates remaining to get to 2209

BHO needs 188 or 41.5% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 323.5 or 71.5% of the total remaining delegates

It is possible, but it's not likely.

Congratulations to Senator Clinton on her likely win in WV.
Thanks for being one of the few media folks to show HRC the respect she deserves. Regardless of whether you love her or hate her, she's made it WAY farther than any woman before her. When all is said and done, she will support the nominee 1000 percent!
Swing superdelegate?

Just what in the blue h___ is that supposed to be?

Anyone remember the game Calvinball from the Calvin & Hobbes comic strip?

The Official Rules of Calvinball

"Rule 1.2 - Any player may declare a new rule at any point in the game. The player may do this audibly or silently depending on what zone (Refer to Rule 1.5) the player is in."

"Rule 1.5 - The Calvinball Field should consist of areas, or zones, which are governed by a set of rules declared spontaneously and inconsistently by players.  Zones may be appear and disappear as often and wherever the player decides."
FTA: "How would you feel if you had your eyes on a promotion at the office, had worked real hard, had the experience, had paid the dues, and then someone younger and less experienced, someone you'd given advice to, mentored a bit, came along and ruined your dream?"

How many times do we have to say: this is an election, NOT a coronation.
You know as mad as I got with her for saying some of the things she said campaigning.As much as I sometimes imagine her like a terminator robot. I do give her credit, that even though her campaign failed to see past Super Tuesday. That she has mad a good attempt at coming back.But more importantly.  She is one tuff cookie.She also has one hell of a poker face. You could see sadness in Bill with that faux win in Indiana. But not Hillary she had on her game face, just as she has in West Virginia. I dont like her arguement about on all things but I do give her credit for her last ditch effort.       With that said Obama 08 lets go !!!!!!
No mas, cabrona
Well written, Ron.  Good job.
I'm jumpng around tonight between the networks as I always do and it just cracks me up to hear the same tired anchor's questions and the same, tired pundits responses. Automatons mostly.   Tonight it's all about "What does Hillary really want?"   The arrogance of those who think they can get inside Hillary Clinton's head is just astounding.  She is a consumate politician. Born for the trade. Bred to the harness.   Within the skill set of politicians is the requisite ability to never show their hand. She's a master.  Thank you, networks, for being better than the sitcoms for laughs.

Funny how FOX is not carrying Obama's live Missouri speech. LOL.
The bulk of her experience is being first lady.  Hardly enough to consider that experience.
Even though i want her to get out of the race, but i still salute her courage. The only thing i don't like about her is "the sense of entitlement."

I know Obama feel bad for her but this is his time.
I find it funny that Hillary thinks she is more "electable" than Obama... Hasn't he won WAY more states than her?  Am I missing something?
There's something to be said for finishing what you've started... and by the rules you started with. The Clinton campaign seems to play loose and fast with the rules they agreed to up front. They started with the 'magic number' being 2,025. Now, because they're well behind in that tally, they want the number to be 2,200-something, making it a little bit longer reach for the front runner. They wnet in agreeing that Michigan and FLorida would not be seated at the convention if they did their primaries early. Doh!!! They're behind and now Michigan and Florida are the most important states in the entire country. ANd with regard to Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot because of the rules agree to up front, they won't hear of doing a re-vote there. Rather curious for a gaggle of people who want everyone's vote to count. I doubt Hillary would carry 100% of the vote there.

So finishing things right is one thing. Making up rules well into the game because you're losing in a big way is another - and that's what Hillary's all about.
She's stopped the blatant attacks on Obama, so clearly she realizes that party unity is important and that her chances are non-existent. She knows that the "white Americans" comment about Obama was way out of bounds and made her look desperate. No kitchen sink for Hillary. Thank God...

http://www.political-buzz.com/
So this was only about "her dreams" and not about America? Oh, now I understand all those nasty comments, her actions and words to damage her own political party. She had to defend "her dream." Go figure!
Its a joke to call some of the stuff out of HRS camp "spin".

Howard Wolfson = Baghdad Bob
Mike?  What hell?
She is loving this and her future is solid regardless of whether she gets the Oval Office or not.

always on point, Ron. I'm an African American Obama supporter, but Senator Clinton deserves our respect and our support as well as, as she finishes strong and hopefully displays to the eventual nominee ways of bringing together all who would pull the lever for the Democrat in November.
"Obama:
-Is rated the most liberal member of the US Senate.
-Wants to raise the payroll taxes/self-employment tax for working people.
-Has an F rating from the NRA.
-Favors partial-birth abortion.
-Launched his political career in 1995 at the home of William Ayers, a terrorist.
-Is business pals with Tony Rezko, a Syrian-born slumlord.
-Has a thuggish wife who hates America even though she got to Harvard Law School via affirmative action.
-Is the son of a Muslim and an atheist and became a Christian by joining a church that advocates black liberation theology and where the pastor begged God to damn America.
-Is a stammering, stuttering speaker without a script and teleprompter.
-Has never passed through legislation on a controversial issue. Consistently voting "present" on tough issues rather than voting a firm YES or NO. "
What color is the Sky on your planet???
To Patty- sd,ca

Go right ahead and vote for McCain... He will need more big dummies like you to vote and still will not win.
howard, FL, sounds like he wants the constitution changed so that Bush can run again.
patty sd ca - Obama has organized a 50 state strategy to register new democratic voters for the general. Because this is organized in all 50 states, Obama will have more than enough new democratic voters to win the general against McCain and you won't be missed. So don't be so smug, and don't give yourself credit where none is due. If you want to help Hillary, organize her supporters and get her massive debt paid off so Obama won't have to, maybe Hillary can save face through you.  
Listening to Obama talk just now on MSNBC, where he's speacking from Lush Limburger's home town, I just keep thanking all the great people around this country to have made it possible for Barack to be so close to victory.  The poor and middle classes, along with the overworked military, finally have a real champion.

I really Like Obama's Robin Hood approach to government, take from the rich to give to the poor!

Go Obama 08/12!
This story is ridiculous. Ron Allen, you have embarrassed yourself. Clinton is "one of the boys".

Instead of showing grace and knowing when the game is over, she is determined to scream and yell and demand the rules be changed to satisfy her own feelings of inevitablity and 'heiress to the throne' mentality her and Bill have been escorting for years.

Sometimes you have to face facts. I understand Senator Clinton is upset and probably is angry things did not turn out like she wanted. But it is HER OWN FAULT. It is the result of how she ran her campaign, how she ignored ALL of the states and picked and chose which ones meant something and which ones did not. She was going to have this all wrapped up by Feb. 5th, remember?? She wasn't supposed to have any competition. She didn't even have a game plan for going past February 5th. Remember???

In sports, time and time again, it is the underdog who attains the win, the trophy, the big prize. And you know why?? Because they play EVERY minute, EVERY quarter, EVERY inning. They don't pick and choose which matter. They play with strategy, with heart, with a burning desire to show themselves they knew they could do it all along. That is exactly what Senator Obama has done. He was the long shot. The 90 -1 horse that everyone thought should not even be in the race.

So even though I am sure Senator Clinton is not happy, at some point you have to step back, realize the facts, and regroup. Her tenure in the Senate is not over. She stills has a wonderful job with a lot of clout and support. She has the great state of New York to take care of. It is time to put her actions where her mouth has been and get behind Senator Obama and start helping him take on John McCain.

Please do NOT try and make us feel sorry for Senator Clinton. She had it all: the money, the name recognition, the ex-President as a surrogate, etc. She didn't play the whole game. She didn't think she had to, and it was the underdog, the one with real heart and soul, who has prevailed. It is time to bow out graciously and show the world she really is a lady.
Patty if you even listened to what Hillary has been saying you would know what a fool you are to continue your dribble about showing Obama out by voting for McBush. I guess once you placed your eyes on her that the words did not matter anymore. The whole purpose of her and Obama running is the same.  To end the Bush failed policies. So in voting for McBush you will be failing to get the whole point of your candidates message.
Patty of sd, I recognize your right to say what you want on this blog-----AMerica is blessed  with free speech.  My father and his father fouht for that right, and I'd defend your right to say all the stuff you've said.  I'll exercise my free speech now andn wish you well, good luck, and try to have the guts to check back with us when the good change that is coming when Obama is President comes knocking at your door.  Goodbye and have a good life.
I love it the idiocy of the Clinton supporters.  Since you won't play my way I am taking my ball,  going home, and VOTING FOR A THIRD TERM OF GEORGE BUSH.  When we slip into a depression because you people can't think beyond your emotions, what will you tell you children then.
Stay out of her head.  It's scary in there.  There is sniper fire going off  in there.  There are secrets from her past real estate investments in there.  There are plans to obliterate the middle east.  It is fantasy-land on heroine.   There are memories of 34 years of tea parties and museum trips masquerading as policy development pulsing though those synapse.  Tick Tick Tick she could blow at any minute.  
What might Hillary do You ask?  That answer is easy. -- She is running for President.  You are wondering What is she thinking? -- That question is also easy.  "She is probably thinking, `How Stupid can people in this country be to vote for Obama?  He is sure to lose to Mccain.  He can't even win the swing states and the Big Electoral States.  And that's what you need in November.
The sad and destructive part to this narcissistic obsession to "finishing the campaign", is that she has proven not to be helpful in defeating McCain; only attempting to somehow "preserve her option" for 2012.
It is indeed unfortunate. She had it all; overwhelming fundraising, name recognition, party regulars' support,  superdelegate and other party "insiders" backing, and a vaunted campaign infrastructure that intimidated almost all potential candidates. Even McCain expressed fear.
What happened? The story of her demise is probably one of the most collosal meltdowns in the history of American politics. She underestimated her rivals, discounted caucauses, and had no plan after super Tueaday.
Now, through delusional spin, she and her crack campaign staff insist on feeding into her unrealistic ego by keeping this rolling train wreck going. Talk about moving the goalposts; she has been changing stadium. In fact she is trying to change sports!
Terry McCauliff was the prime example today.
One huge question. If she were SO electable, why can't she raise money? Cut through all the BS, and the bottom line is that she does not have enough supporters who are willing to support her campaign. That is the only electability poll that is relevant.
So Hillary and her supporters: you must ask yourself some fundamental questions. Do you truly want a continuation of the Iraq policies; a continuation of the outsourcing of jobs to China, Japan, and Mexico;
a continual redistribution of income to the very wealthy through tax breaks, and a reversal of Roe v. Wade?. If you truly have so little regard for the future of this country, then keep playing the political games, using illogical spin, and continue to attack the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama.
If on the other hand, you are willing to put the future of the country above your selfish interests, it is time to coalese around Obama so we will defeat McCain.
There is no other option available.  
I'm sure glad that the Science Channel will be showing some great shows tonight as the political punditry is going to be really stale.  No excitement like last week when Obama overperformed and sealed "Desperate" Hillary's fate.

I just wish she would think of the party and unity rather than of herself.  She's like an attention junkie who just can't get over her addiction for attention and can't face the prospect of having to go cold turkey and suffer from total Attention Deficit Disorder.

Go Obama 08/12!
I guess if I had done the equivalent at my job of voting for the war in Iraq and my spouse was running around insulting the electorate, I would be happy that I even still had my job, much less be worried about becoming the head of the company . . .
Listen Ron

 I guess you and the press corp are shooting down the same whiskey HRC is. What is this, with a younger less experienced candidate- I mean are they buying a steak because of this hit job? Last time it was HRC with the can't trust problem,last time I checked it was her that hired a bunch of yes-men, now that she is falling behind she wants to cry about it. I have a suggestion for you, go back to the Katie Couric interview where katies asks her will you support the democratic nominee- and she says defiantly I will be the nominee- and I am supposed to feel sorry for her?


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