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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



What might Hillary do?

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 6:02 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Ron Allen
These days, it can feel a bit strange being in the Hillary Clinton press caravan.
 
The morning newspaper headlines scream about how she should cash it all in, how the race is over. Magazine covers proclaim Barack Obama the winner. We all read the polls. We all do the math. We all think we're pretty smart.
 
It can feel a bit odd to carry those newspapers and all of those thoughts onto her press plane and watch her cheerfully appear there up front, ready to take on another day, never showing any hint of doubt. Nothing at all suggests it's not just yet another day on the long march to the nomination.
 
But while watching her, questioning her, and listening to her give speech after speech to crowds of passionate supporters, you can't help but wonder what is she really thinking? Only she, and perhaps a few people very close, know.
  
She has to be upset, disappointed, anyone would be but angry? How would you feel if you had your eyes on a promotion at the office, had worked real hard, had the experience, had paid the dues, and then someone younger and less experienced, someone you'd given advice to, mentored a bit, came along and ruined your dream?
 
Colleagues, and even friends and relatives, ask when we're coming home? When will she drop out? The answer from the campaign's point of view is that we're going all the way to Denver in August perhaps, until there's a nominee. How can that square with those headlines saying it’s over?
 
They're planning for Oregon and Kentucky next week. We're off to South Dakota before that. At the same time, we know Obama is heading to Michigan and Florida. We know he probably will proclaim "victory" with a majority of pledged delegates after Oregon. 
 
Meanwhile, Clinton's aides still talk about how "electability" is all that really matters -- and those swing voters, swing states, and even swing superdelegates. Heard that last one for the first time on the day Obama took the superdelegate lead.
 
Ultimately, of course, the question is how can you be more electable than someone you can't beat in most of the elections you've competed in head to head? Isn't the score 31 to 16? (with Texas for neither candidate).
 
Still, Clinton presses on in West Virginia. She tells crowds that every Democratic nominee has carried the state since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without the state. Will a big win here, and the logic of history, trump all that's gone before it?

Someone said it’s a bit like a marathon runner who is determined to complete the entire 26-mile course. I've never done it. But I've seen the joy and satisfaction and even pain on the faces of those runners finishing hours after the winner -- competing on their own terms.

A couple of days ago, I ran into a friend who's an entrepreneur, with a business a few years old.

"Of course," she said, Clinton should continue to the end. She then then pointed out that there were many doubters along her way from that first business idea to a successful enterprise who just knew it would all end in failure.

You have to follow your dreams as far as possible, she advised, and then headed off to a staff meeting. Business is quite good. Good thing she didn't quit. But then again, another editorial today was certain Clinton should get out for the good of the party, or for her own good.

At a farmer's market in Charleston, W.V., on primary day, Clinton wears that ever-optimistic smile, shakes every hand in sight, poses for pictures with anyone and everyone. She's a star! They absolutely love her.

"She looks shorter than on TV."

"Prettier."

"I'm standing two feet from her," a man tells someone on his cell phone who probably doesn't believe him.

"Keep going, keep going," urges a woman almost tugging on her arm.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think she will do just that -- at least until every state has voted. I think she wants the satisfaction of finishing the race, especially since so many are saying she shouldn't.
 
Clinton often tells a story about playing girl's basketball in elementary school. No one was allowed to cross half court. You either played offense or defense -- three-on-three. You were only allowed three dribbles. Why? The answer was something vague, she says, about how playing like the boys would be bad for girls’ hearts, or something.
 
I sense the senator is now determined to finish this game, by her own rules, and regardless of what the boys have to say.

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Comments

wow! -- as usual, a great story from Ron Allen who provides insights to a very troubled and troubling campaign.

My only quibble (if that) is that the big promotion was Hillary's to lose and she did -- by being negative and Rovian, divisive and racist, entitled and undisciplined, arrogant and dishonest.  

The majority of the people -- her potential bosses -- found her to be too unlikeable and too self-serving. After all, she's supposed to work FOR us -- not drive a wedge BEWTEEN us.

I am happy to vote for Hope and Change. I'm happy to vote for Barack Obama.

55 year old (white) woman with a brain.

p.s. someday I'd like to meet Eric of Salinas and Lisa in CT -- you both sound like great people!
Everyone keeps talking about how Obama has won more states than Clinton.  They keep saying that he has won twice as many states as Clinton.  Well Obama has won twice as many considering he has won 31 states to date and she has won 16.

However, everyone that keeps making the argument that Obama has won more states is failing to point out several other facts about the states won by each candidate.

First, to make an argument based on the number of states won is flawed considering the states are not exactly the same size in total area or in population.  Some states are very small in total area and population and others are very large in total area and population.  So the argument that he has won more states is flawed considering Obama has won a bunch of medium to small states in area and population and Clinton has won 99% of the biggest states in area and population in the country.

Second, Obama has won to date, 16,050,924 votes to Clinton's 15,336,896 votes.  That means that Obama with the 31 states that he has won, has won an average of 517,771 votes per state, while Clinton with the 16 states that she has won, has won an average of 1,961,738 votes.

So Obama has won 31 states to Clinton's 16.

However, Clinton has also won 1.9 million votes per state to Obama's 500 thousand votes per state.

In every state that Clinton has won she has won 4 times the number of votes that Obama has won in the states that he has won, 4 TIMES.

But you don’t hear anyone talking about those numbers.

There are 700 thousand votes separating Clinton and Obama and when she wins WV she will shrink that difference to 400 thousand and it will continue to shrink between now and June 3rd.  All the Obama supporters are saying that the popular vote doesn’t matter.  That’s funny considering two months ago that’s all the Obama supporters were talking about.  And I want to see someone tell the superdelegate Al Gore, that the popular vote count doesn’t matter and see what he has to say about it.
Let her finish this out, she has earned that and so has her supporters, There has been a ton of hard work from all involved and they deserve to run the legnth of the course, in a marathon they don't stop the runners from crossing the finish line just because someone crossed before them, Obama has not crossed the finish line at this point either, Just because he is feet from doesn't make him the winner until he crosses it... So let Hillary run until then!
Everyone keeps talking about how Obama has won more states than Clinton.  They keep saying that he has won twice as many states as Clinton.  Well Obama has won twice as many considering he has won 31 states to date and she has won 16.

However, everyone that keeps making the argument that Obama has won more states is failing to point out several other facts about the states won by each candidate.

First, to make an argument based on the number of states won is flawed considering the states are not exactly the same size in total area or in population.  Some states are very small in total area and population and others are very large in total area and population.  So the argument that he has won more states is flawed considering Obama has won a bunch of medium to small states in area and population and Clinton has won 99% of the biggest states in area and population in the country.

Second, Obama has won to date, 16,050,924 votes to Clinton's 15,336,896 votes.  That means that Obama with the 31 states that he has won, has won an average of 517,771 votes per state, while Clinton with the 16 states that she has won, has won an average of 1,961,738 votes.

So Obama has won 31 states to Clinton's 16.

However, Clinton has also won 1.9 million votes per state to Obama's 500 thousand votes per state.

In every state that Clinton has won she has won 4 times the number of votes that Obama has won in the states that he has won, 4 TIMES.

But you don’t hear anyone talking about those numbers.

There are 700 thousand votes separating Clinton and Obama and when she wins WV she will shrink that difference to 400 thousand and it will continue to shrink between now and June 3rd.  All the Obama supporters are saying that the popular vote doesn’t matter.  That’s funny considering two months ago that’s all the Obama supporters were talking about.  And I want to see someone tell the superdelegate Al Gore, that the popular vote count doesn’t matter and see what he has to say about it.
To Address the first message: What does it mean to be the most liberal Senator? Whereas a Congressional Representative is elected by a small area within a state, a Senator must be elected by the entire state. I'm not sure what the criteria for being the most liberal are but I guarentee you Senator Obama is not the most liberal politician in Washington by a long shot.

Also, we already pay payroll tax up to $90,000 (or thereabouts). What Barack Obama wants to do is even the playing field because as it stands now, working class people (people who make less than $90,000 a year) are paying taxes on their ENTIRE income whereas people that make more money receive a tax break.

Regarding Michelle Obama: If affirmative action is the only way she made it into Harvard than I'm all for affirmative action because, like her or hate her, the woman is very, very smart. (P.S. You can't say we don't need affirmative action and then say that a smart African American would not have made it through college without it).

Try reading his book if you want to know where he comes from and what he thinks. It's okay to disagree and there are some valid points to be made about experience etc. but I am so tired of the mindless bashing and hate speech--it makes my skin crawl.
Its a joke to call some of the stuff out of HRS camp "spin".

Howard Wolfson = Baghdad Bob
As a woman exactly Hillary's age, I can certainly relate to the disappointment of "working hard for a job promotion only to see it go to someone younger" - and yet, Hillary lost this for herself.  Remember, she didn't announce until after he did, and yet, she began her campaign cultivating that aura of inevitability.  She assumed we would be glad to see a resumption of "The Clinton Years" and when that didn't appear to be the case, she allowed her campaign to slide into racial inuendo and her own lying about Bosnia, which the media allowed her to get away with saying she "mis-spoke".  After sixteen years of Presidents who lie, We want a president we can trust.  After sixteen years of our intelligence being insulted, we want a president who understands we can take the truth.  In the end, Hillary is left with exactly the supporters who she (and Bill) always assumed we all were... and it's just not enough.
If Hillary were a good candidate, her campaign would not be 20 million dollars in debt, that is for sure, she can't even run her own campaign, how can she run a country?
Don't let the media pundits and rabid Clinton supporters like Patty fool you. According to a new Washington Post/ABC poll, most Clinton supporters will be doing the right thing and voting for Obama in November. Also, in a related point it turns out Obama is quite electable. www.abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1064a208Election.pdf
if people are so bitter about obama being the nominee that they'd rather watch the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, so be it. they're not punishing obama supporters (who make more and are generally more educated) they're punishing themselves. we (yes, i'm for obama) benefit from the bush tax cuts. we benefit from a low payroll cap. we benefit from oil companies doing well (diverse investing). so go ahead clintonites. cut off your nose to spite your face.
Have you folks BEEN to West Virginia? It's likely the most racist state in the Union. Add to that the area of southwestern PA south of Pittsburgh and you will still find meetings of groups that think they are the local KKK - only they operate as American Legion clubs.

There is NO way... repeat, NO way, that any black man or woman could win that state. Even Morgan Freeman playing God and sending 40 days and nights of rain couldn't get through their thick heads on this issue. They'd run him out of town too.

Yeah patty is right. And then when McCain's appointed supreme court judges make Abortion illegal for the next 20 years, Obama will learn not to win elections.

People there is more at stake than Clinton breaking a glass ceiling.

If HRC does not get the Demacratic nomination. She needs to run as an Indapendent!!! Demacrats seem to be able to screw up a wet dream!!! I say screw the demacrats and go ind!!!!Don't Qiut Hillary!!!
I just saw some early exit poll results from Norah O'Donnell and there now is defnitive proof that the people of West Virginia are easily fooled by false pandering.  They favored the "Pander" McCain/Clinton gas tax cut holiday political scam by 65% to 34%.

Sad that people just aren't smart enough to pay attention to the facts rather than the feel good pander from Old School Washington politicians like George "Wrong" Bush.  What a breath of fresh air Barack Obama will bring to the White House next year.

Go Obama 08/12!
Clinton should and will take it to the convention. She is the only one who can win. Her core is more conservative and much more likely to vote for a liberal republican like McCain. Obama's supporters are younger and more liberal. They will not vote for McCain. Just look at the comments from Obama supporters on these blogs. They call people in WV and Arkansas "toothless, racist rednecks." That sort of elitest attitude is what kills obama with the middle and working class. I hope Hillary wins, otherwise the second choice for many will be McCain who will win in November.  
Sen. Clinton should stay in until everyone has a chance to vote.  McCain is a viable alternative to obama and has a proven record of crossing party line in order to get something accomplished.  It's all about compromise.  Clinton can run again in four years and I think she will do well.
If, by some miracle, obama wins in Nov., his future would be that of Jimmy Carter.  

McCain2008
For Clinton and Obama supporters:
Be wary of posters like Howard Fl and Patty sd ca. These "supporters" do not want Clinton or Obama. They are just trying to divide the Democratic party. Don't fall for the bait they are throwing out.
It is indicative of how morally bankrupt McCain's candidacy is that they send out their supporters to populate blogs spewing hate for both sides. Notice they cannot support their candidate in a positive manner. Perhaps this video will explain why:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y395Tftgz0E
McCain would be the absolute worse thing that could happen to this country. His economic policy alone would increase the deficit over 2 trillion dollars. His Iraq policy WILL lead to war with Iran.
Hillary and Obama supporters: we must defeat MCCain.
Howard, not going to argue any of your amazingly thin talking points that you no doubt got from Faux News, I just want to tell you to get used to saying "President Obama".  
What lesson will you be teaching us patty?  That Democrats can't say no the Clintons?  Who are they the mafia?

Or are you teaching us that you are a sore loser?  Or are you teaching us that you like to make non-sensical arguments and randomly threaten large groups of people anonymously through the internet to get your jollies?  

All of those "lessons" are pretty pathetic...but I expect nothing less.
to patty,sd,ca.

I hope your happy with your vote for McCain.  If he wins about 2000-3000 more american families will lose a loved one in a war in Iraq, that nobody wants, in the next 4 years under McCain.  I hope you can live with yourself knowing their blood is on your hands as well.  You have a chance to bring them home, instead you decide to play sore loser and cost American jobs, lives and money.  Hope you can live with yourself.
I love to see someone proclaiming themselves a "Clinton Republican for McCain."  If one is so ready to vote for more tax-breaks and bail-outs for the richest members of society, a 100 year war, and shiftiness on most issues, what in the world were they doing voting for HIllary in the first place?  It's clear from her most die-hard followers that the only reason they support Hillary are her 2 X chromosomes.  And they have the nerve to call Obama supporters blind?  Perhaps they can't see past their own apparent sexism.
That's because Hillary lives on Planet Clinton, where
everything she says is true, and everything she dreams
of is already a fact of life.  On Planet Clinton, she
is already the President of the United States, and
she's just waiting around for her inaguration.

Meanwhile...

The REST of us live on Planet Earth, where we are
about to elect Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee
of our party.

Which planet do YOU live on, eh?
Some people, such as Paty D and Howard from Florida, don't give any legitimate reasons as to why Obama should not be elected president. The reality of this is, that deep down they know Obama would (and will) make a great president. The reason why they don't support him? Bigotry. People like Howard and Paty D would rather see the USA become a third world country than vote for Obama.
If the shoe were on the other foot; and Obama was the one pressing to the end, any guesses as to what Hillary would be saying right about now? It's not about girls and boys, nor about whites and blacks, it's about whether Democrats or Republicans get to make life and death decisions for the American people. What exactly is her problem? It's over; she lost. Why must she drag drag hard-working Americans (OF ALL RACES)down with her? Is it to say "I told you so in November", and start campaigning for 2012 in December? This is sheer madness, why won't female party leaders Baker Act their insane sister? HELLO!
I totally agree with jed's comments, that the Clintons' treatment of women, specifically a 22-yr-old intern in the White House who got caught up in the glamour makes her almost an anti-feminist. Maybe other woman abused by men identify with her but I find it appalling.
I wrote a piece on it, in my blog, about why I think she's running: Don't get mad, get even.

http://kitneill.blogspot.com
That's Hillary for ya'--rule or ruin.

Honestly, I think she should stay in the race until June 3rd. But I am sick and tired of hearing how whatever she wins is THE most important thing for the Democrats. Dear God, if only the states she's won are the most important for the Democrats, why in the world have she and Obama gone through five months of campaigning all over the United States? Because more than the states Hillary has won are important, that's why. What I want to know is why is she still diminishing Obama? He's never done that to her--he always says she's a formidable candidate, blah, blah, blah.

I'm so tired of her spin. And it sounds like Hillary's press club is fighting hard not to down the Clinton Kool-Aid.
I beg to differ about Obama being less experienced than Cinton.  He as actually been in ELECTED office longer than she has--8 years in the Illinois State Senate and sworn int the U.S. senate in January 2005.  She was sworn into the Senate in January 2001 and no, First Lady is not an elected position.
A vote for McCain is a vote for a continuation of war-not just in Iraq; but, probably another one in Iran.  Are Clinton supporters so self-absorbed that the lives of our military people mean so little to them?  We have already lost over 4000 of our best young men and women in this senseless war.  Can you live with the blood of those who will die if McCain is elected being on your hands?  Vote democratic.  End the war.
Beware of republicans. They will start a bad argument posing as Democrats. Atleast patty,sd,ca has id'ed herself, so we can ignore her completely. True democrats don't just rattle w/o facts. We all know what Hill did in the course of these elections, and we all know what she is "trying" to do - and it will fail.
No matter the out come of this primary. I have to say that no matter what the candidates do, this is all about the American people. However, it truly saddens me that this has turned brothers against brothers, sisters against  sisters and neighbors against neighbors. This is the United States and our flag is Red, White, and Blue, not black and white. This has become a racial issue the hate that is displayed in these comments saddens me deeply and I pray every night that this stops at some point. We are all very passionate about our candidates. However, how can supporting someone become such hate toward another? You only see this sort of thing in other countries. We are a proud people and we are all Americans and we have soldiers of all colors, all races and all classes dying in Afghanistan and Iraq. That is what it's all about!
Barack has MORE elected office experience than Hillary!!! Period!!!

How hard is that to understand?

You are just getting too many memo from the Clinton camp!

In addition to the more elected office experience, Barack has the better judgment than Hillary!

Two examples: She said she does not listen to economist on economic issues? (when asked about the gas tax). If not the experts then whom? her loyalists and/or lobbyists?

She voted for the authorization of the Iraq War - get this --- WITHOUT reading the Intelligence report!!

I am not even going to the Bosnia stuff...

I give her this: she's been on the face of the earth more than he did; but, that does not say anything about their leadership.

Barack has the right kind of experience - elected office experience and he has been helping people since he finished school, he has shown his best judgment when it comes to the Iraq war, he has the best police for the economy, Iraq war, education, energy, environment, veteran care, social security ... etc. He is going to unit the different groups and bring great CHANGES to Washington - make them do some work not just argue with each other!  

Chuck, Todd, Domenico : what do I have to do for you to post my comments? huh?
Gee, how sad for you that you have to contiue to do your job. That Hillary is really rude. Imagine failing to roll over for MSNBC after Timmy Russert et al declared the race over. What nerve. And you having to hide your paper. It must be awful being you.
Hillary;

We still remember;
Everything you went through; all of the pain and heartache, when our hearts went out to you; and all of the hard work only to come up short on healthcare plans back in the 90's...and all of the hope and optimisim when you decided to run for the NY Senate seat. And all of the promise when you said you would be there to "Take on Washington". And our disappointment when you came out in favor of war...

We still have hope for you, and we still are behind you and pray for you. you can still be an important part of the future; unless YOU decide not to be.

We understand the rethoric of the campaign and how you think that Obama cannot win without "your" supporters...but we must collectively caution you that your current "stance" on Obama's electability goes against everything we as a Nation have learned over these past months. We have seen him and experienced it personally, as he has electrified the electorate. We have researched his positions and come to realize that his stance(s) on issues like healthcare has a better chance of "working across party lines". We have come to realize that given today's economic realities, and now necessary restraints, true "Universal Healthcare MANDATES" will not pass, and could not be funded even if they did. We all know the pain of having to put our own healthcare costs aside, in favor of those for our children, and sometimes even grandchildren.
We all fully understand that discussing a nuke option in the middle east without ever sitting down with the parties involved to even ask them if they would consider another option or compromise; is both foolish and counter productive, in that it sends a signal that for all intents and purposes will only serve to drive up the cost of oil, and further distance us from the other power states on this planet; who are also vying for their share of oil and resources to bring their countries into some parity with the US. We do not think that our roads and bridges can suffer the loss of revenue of a "Gas Tax Holiday"; and we do not see anything "Holy" about the proposal. It belittles us to suggest that we would (or should) put our own personal pocketbooks above the needs of our Nation, whether it is for roads or healthcare.

We are constantly worried when your political rethoric of the moment, is valued more than the lives of our soldiers in the field; and we are very hurt personally, when that rethotic could very easliy be adding danger to their missions; by giving a "potential" enemy the impression that it may be best to aid those who are against us in the field.

We want to continue to support you Hillary, but the needs of a Nation in dire straits must come before our fondest wishes for you.

AMERICA FIRST!!
You know, Hillary is a fighter - no doubt about that.  And I don't dispute that she truly believes in what she is doing, that she believes she is the best person for the job.
But here's the thing.  I work in an office with mostly women.  There is one here who knows her stuff, has the respect of the whole group, and wants to move into a management position.  But nobody else wants her to, including those in management.  Why?  Because she cannot keep herself from fighting about everything - she has to be right, and when she is not she pouts and whines and points fingers at anyone she can.  It reminds me so much of Hillary.
On the other hand, our Vice President, who happens to be a woman, treats everyone with respect, encouragement, and works to build them up rather than tear them down.  She doesn't have to be right all the time.  She builds consensus and moves everyone toward common goals.  She's revered and admired, and all of us want to be like her.  
Reminds me of Obama.
Ron Allen, that is the most objective article written by MSNBC about the Clinton v. Obama race....

I have to say that I'm really surprised it's not screaming support for Barack Obama
I'm starting to think that if enough democrates wanted Hillary to run in November, she wouldn't be in this situation.  It is democracy, the voters spoke and the better candidate won.  We will regroup and easily take the white house this November, and Barack will be our president.  I was kidding about Clinton Republicans for McCain; we all know that is ridiculous and there is no such group.  

I've come to the light

Obama '08!
I'm starting to think that if enough democrates wanted Hillary to run in November, she wouldn't be in this situation.  It is democracy, the voters spoke and the better candidate won.  We will regroup and easily take the white house this November, and Barack will be our president.  I was kidding about Clinton Republicans for McCain; we all know that is ridiculous and there is no such group.  

I've come to the light

Obama '08!
I'm starting to think that if enough democrates wanted Hillary to run in November, she wouldn't be in this situation.  It is democracy, the voters spoke and the better candidate won.  We will regroup and easily take the white house this November, and Barack will be our president.  I was kidding about Clinton Republicans for McCain; we all know that is ridiculous and there is no such group.  

I've come to the light

Obama '08!
I'm starting to think that if enough democrates wanted Hillary to run in November, she wouldn't be in this situation.  It is democracy, the voters spoke and the better candidate won.  We will regroup and easily take the white house this November, and Barack will be our president.  I was kidding about Clinton Republicans for McCain; we all know that is ridiculous and there is no such group.  

I've come to the light

Obama '08!


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