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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



How Clinton won

Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 7:46 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's AnaMaria Arumi
Hillary Clinton is the winner of the Democratic primary in West Virginia today. She pulled together pretty much the same coalition that she rode to victory in last week in Indiana and before that in Pennsylvania and Ohio -- benefiting greatly from the demographic profile of the state.

The exit polls asked Democratic primary voters in West Virginia what issue was most important to their vote today. As was the case WV Pennsylvania and Ohio, the Democratic primary electorate in West Virginia is predominately white.

The overwhelming majority of West Virginia Democratic primary voters today were white and 4% were African American. 

Clinton won the white vote by 68% to 28%

While Barack Obama did narrow his margins in West Virginia among more affluent and better-educated white voters, this state was all about working-class whites again delivering their votes for Hillary Clinton.

Working-class whites earning less than $50,000 backed Clinton 72% to 24% for Obama. White women have been an important Clinton constituency, and she did win this group in West Virginia today.

She won white women by 74% to 24%, and most white men by, 63% to 33%. 

This heavily white, older, and less well-educated electorate also felt a stronger personal connection with Hillary Clinton than they did with Barack Obama. We asked voters in the Mountain State if they believed each candidate shared their values.

Seven-in-10 think Clinton shares their core values, while less than half feel the same about Obama. West Virginia Democratic primary voters clearly prefer Hillary Clinton, but with Obama closing in on the nomination, do they find him an acceptable alternative? We asked the voters how they would feel if Obama is the Democratic Party’s nominee this year -- 44% say they would be satisfied with him, 54% would be dissatisfied.

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Hillary;

We still remember;
Everything you went through; all of the pain and heartache, when our hearts went out to you; and all of the hard work only to come up short on healthcare plans back in the 90's...and all of the hope and optimism when you decided to run for the NY Senate seat. And all of the promise when you said you would be there to "Take on Washington"; and our disappointment when you came out in favor of war...

We still have hope for you, and we still are behind you and pray for you. You can still be an important part of the future; unless YOU decide not to be.

We understand the rhetoric of the campaign and how you think that Obama cannot win without "your" supporters...but we must collectively caution you that your current "stance" on Obama's electability goes against everything we as a Nation have learned over these past months. We have seen him and experienced it personally, as he has electrified the electorate. We have researched his positions and come to realize that his stance(s) on issues like healthcare has a better chance of "working across party lines". We have come to realize that given today's economic realities, and now necessary restraints, true "Universal Healthcare MANDATES" will not pass, and could not be funded even if they did. We all know the pain of having to put our own healthcare costs aside, in favor of those for our children, and sometimes even grandchildren.
We all fully understand that discussing a nuke option in the middle east without ever sitting down with the parties involved to even ask them if they would consider another option or compromise; is both foolish and counter productive, in that it sends a signal that for all intents and purposes will only serve to drive up the cost of oil, and further distance us from the other power states on this planet; who are also vying for their share of oil and resources to bring their countries into some parity with the US. We do not think that our roads and bridges can suffer the loss of revenue of a "Gas Tax Holiday"; and we do not see anything "Holy" about the proposal. It belittles us to suggest that we would (or should) put our own personal pocketbooks above the needs of our Nation, whether it is for roads or healthcare.

We are constantly worried when your political rhetoric of the moment, is valued more than the lives of our soldiers in the field; and we are very hurt personally, when that rhetoric could very easily be adding danger to their missions; by giving a "potential" enemy the impression that it may be best to aid those who are against us in the field.

We want to continue to support you Hillary, but the needs of a Nation in dire straits must come before our fondest wishes for you.

AMERICA FIRST!!
We already know. She won because Obama is not electable.

Give us another one of New Rules.
How many delegates will she net?  Doesn't really matter, he'll probably erase it by the end of the week anyway.  
Next.....and this changes WHAT!!!!
 
Do they get MSNBC/cable, in WV yet?
 
 It was reported that 17% of residents have a college degree-one of the worst in the nation. If you pull out
the DC emigres (Jim Lehrer, et al.) in the panhandle,
what would the number be? Just curious.

Uneducated Rednecks for Clinton ! White America Unite!
This is embarrassing-she is clinging to this failed primary bid with no hopes just like she clung to that unfaithful husband- she reminds me of Tom
Cruise in Interview with a Vampire- even after they burned him up and threw him in the swamp he was back playing the harpsicord like nothing had happened then remember how he turned out in the end!
Gosh, don't you feel sorry for the people in W.V?
Congratulations Hillary.
But, and it is a huge but, larger than your win.
More superdelegates stepped up for Obama this week than she delegates she will win.

28 to 1.5 Obama over Hillary

She won't stand down until Super Delegates stand up
A nice solid victory for HRC. Good for her. The entire family were real troopers in WV. Personally, I'm glad she had a good night. I don't want her to leave the race a total loser, especially if she and Bill cool it with their evil race-baiting crap. Soon we will be past all this primary noise. Thank goodness!!! June 3rd can't come soon enough...
So, you mean, Clinton won WV? Just like people have been telling us she would for the last year? I'll be darned.

Come on, a three-year-old could have written this article, it's based on numbers we could have estimated with a 2-point margin of error months ago. Anyone who couldn't have predicted these numbers, and anyone who couldn't figure out why Clinton won, shouldn't be allowed to vote.

Still, congratulations to Clinton. I'm sure what she said was right, and WV must truly be the turning point.  It'll be a piece of cake for her to pass Obama with the country's highest populated and most delegate-rich states/territories in Kentucky, Oregon, PR, Montana* and SD left.

*There appears to have been some confusion recently. Officials from Montana have confirmed that Helena will, in fact, remain the state's capital, though the small town of Hannah did spark some discussion amongst leaders that they might be able to raise their population by catching onto the tween fad. In the end, however, they decided it was best they encourage their teenage girls to keep their shirts on when posing for a camera until they are at least 18.
I'm really amazed on how many uneducated people are in this country.
(hillary supporters)  and they're all white too!

Voting that the gas tax was a good idea!  Voting for thirty bucks....lol.
and every economists said it was not a good idea....congress would never pass it...especially by the summer....they aren't uneducated they are just plain dumb.

Maybe the focus the campaign needs to be put on education...forget about the war...they don't understand that nor the economy....way over they're uneducated heads.

Lets focus on education then when they graduate we can have an intelligent conversation.

jeeeeez.


Domenico, when are you ever going to define that "working class" term you keep using? I've complained about it for weeks. Everytime I go to the poll numbers it isn't there. Are you just making it up? There are numbers for the elderly and for education levels, but where are the numbers for the employed. I googled NBC, ABC, and CBS exit polls and none had working class broken out.  Please provide your reference.
"The exit polls asked Democratic primary voters in West Virginia what issue was most important to their vote today. As was the case WV Pennsylvania and Ohio, the Democratic primary electorate in West Virginia is predominately white."
------------------------------------------------------
WTF is that?  Does that mean that they found their whiteness to be important?  Are they intergrated down there, or is there still separate facilities?  No wonder why Barack didn't campaign there.    
Congratulations to Hillary Clinton.  Now, let's move onward and forward.  

Here’s a summary of some good reasons to consider supporting Obama.  Share it widely with friends in Kentucky and Oregon:
 http://acropolisreview.com/2008/04/top-reasons-to-give-barack-obama-your.html



A river may twist and turn on its way to the sea, but it knows its destination.
It is possible to have a discussion about this latest outcome in WV, but in the final analysis it sums up to be that either you like Senator Obama or you don't.
She won the hillbillies who jumped on their pick-up trucks and went to vote for her.

You know I think Barrack Obama was RIGHT on what he said in San Francisco.
Attention WV, the reason they call it the White House is because it is white in color, not because it is only for whites.  Sheesh!
She won because she played the race card.
wow, well i guess it isn't surprising,  I'm starting to think there will be an Obama/Clinton ticket come November....
Why don't we start referring to working class whites as 'rednecks' or 'trailer trash'; either are shorter and more accurate.
She won by making it a racial issue. In the 21st century some Americans will still not vote for a man with dark skin. Land of the "free" does not apply to WV unless free means white! It is not about working class.. it is about racists ignorant uneducated folks who would choose a white tree against a perfect candidate that happened to have a dark skin.
Obama supporters don't care about WV. Those voters who voted for Clinton will go to Mccain in the fall. God save them - if those people are that stupid to vote for 4 more years of McSame - so be it - they well deserve to 3rd Bush term.
Wait...aren't they all cousins there in WV anyway?
wow you won the white uneducated voters how impressive!!!!!! That should make you feel so good.  You get uneducated voters and Barack gets intelligent ones. I guess we're the ones who know your going to court for campaign fraud, and probably many other crimes. Your family should be so proud.  And is West Virginia a real state yet. I didn't even think they had roads.
All of this information is code for HILLARY CLINTON IS THE PRESIDENT FOR WHITE AMERICA! Give me a break...Hillary Clinton shares the core values of working-class folks. Barack Obama must do something to address the underline racism that seems obvious in the Clinton campaign and in this the results of the West Virginia primary. Democrats ought to be ashamed of themselves. We might as well go ahead and welcome President John McCain into the White House!!! McCain is going to exploit this divide within the Democratic Party and he is going to win with it. Even though I was expecting this win for Hillary, I had hope that White working-class West Virginians would wake the heck up and vote with their minds instead of their hateful prejudices, but I guess racism is harder to kill. It is the 21st century and we are still dealing with this ridiculous mess.
this is ridiculous. if hilary were running agains edwards and he was claiming he should be the nominee because he was a stronger draw among white working class men, the media and everyone else would be ripping him to shreds for being sexist. obama has never claimed he should be the nominee based on race, gender, or any other particularity. he is running strictly on his ability to move the country forward. while clinton apparently wants to take us back to 1958.
HE CAN'T WIN BECAUSE HE'S BLACK - Hillary Clinton
WHITE PEOPLE WILL NOT VOTE FOR HIM - Hillary Clinton
WHITE PEOPLE LIKE ME MORE - Hillary Clinton
I'M A WOMAN, WOMEN UNITE! - Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton should be FIRED as a Senator from NYS. She does NOT represent us at all !

Hillary is a racist and we have started a movement to kick her OUT of NYS!

Pack your trash Hillary, you will NOT be re-elected in 2010 !
Republican Primary Results
WEST VIRGINIA
Tuesday, February 5 2008

Huckabee 52%
Romney 47%      
McCain  1% ?


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