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Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Down the ballot: 'A devastating blow'

Posted: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 9:09 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

Roll Call writes, “In what is sure to be a devastating blow to GOP morale heading into the November general election, Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D) defeated Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) on Tuesday night in the special election runoff in northern Mississippi's once solidly Republican 1st district. The victory not only hands Democrats their second special election victory in the South in less than two weeks but also gives the growing Democratic majority all the momentum this cycle after picking up three Republican seats in special elections for the first time in more than 30 years.”

“With 99 percent of precincts reporting, The Associated Press has called the race for Childers, who leads Davis 54 percent to 46 percent.”

The New York Times: “Davis had been hoping for a large turnout in his home of DeSoto County, where roughly 15 percent of the district’s voters live, and which is solidly Republican and mostly white. But a last-minute appearance for him by Mr. Cheney on Monday apparently failed to rally his base sufficiently; indeed a modest room at a local convention center was hardly packed.”

More: “[T[he Republican strategy of trying to link Mr. Childers to more liberal national Democratic figures fell short, as it did in Louisiana. Indeed, voters here were bombarded by advertisements equating Mr. Childers with Senator Barack Obama, a tactic intended to turn conservative whites away from Mr. Childers and which some politicians said played on white racial resentments… In the end, tying the white Democrat to the black presidential candidate may have helped Mr. Childers more than it hurt him, as campaign aides reported heavy black turnout, heavier than in a vote three weeks ago when he came within 400 votes of winning.”

DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen released this statement: “Republicans and their outside groups pulled out all the stops in an attempt to nationalize a congressional race and distract voters away from their own candidates’ failure to stand up for middle class families… After three consecutive Special Election defeats in districts President Bush twice won easily, it is abundantly clear the American people have turned their back and shut the door on the special interest driven agenda of the Republican Party. There is no district that is safe for Republican candidates because President Bush’s failed policies have hurt every community in America.”

Obama also congratulated Childers. “By electing Travis in this traditionally overwhelmingly Republican district, the people of Mississippi voted to end the politics of division and distraction, and bring about real change,” he said in a statement. “This is the third special election in recent months that Democrats have won in traditionally Republican areas -- an unmistakable sign that Americans want to make a clean break from the failed Bush policies of the past - and are not looking for four more years of those failed policies from John McCain.” 

Here’s the statement from NRCC chairman Tom Cole: “We are disappointed in tonight’s election results. Though the NRCC, RNC and Mississippi Republicans made a major effort to retain this seat, we came up short. “[Last night’s] election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November. First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats’ task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans.”

“Second, the political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general. Therefore, Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a forward-looking agenda that offers the kind of positive change voters are looking for. This is something we can do in cooperation with our Presidential nominee, but time is short.”

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Comments

I wonder if that HIGH AA turnout would have happened to support someone who was trying to "diss" Mrs Clinton?

What the media fails to report is that Hillary can't win with just 8% support among AA.  The democrats have NEVER carried the white vote not even Bill Clinton.  It was the AA vote that put him over the top.  She would NEVER get it.  Not now.  So if we have to lose 9 and I don't believe we will)I would rather win with him at the top of the ticket vs Hillary.  Further more down ballot stands a better chance with a high AA turnout.  Democrats could lose the House if AA don't show up.  Put that in your pipe and smoke it.  The SD know this, that is why they are going with him.  She can be President of WV and Bill can be her VP.
Congratulations Childers!!   The Republicans please continue to use the Obama/Wright commercial and maybe we can be rid more of you.  Also, keep having Cheney show up to these elections to remind people how they are worse off today then they were 7 1/2 years ago.  Better yet, send a representative of the oil companies to every district.  That will definitely help the cause.  
Why is everything now "mostly white" or "blue collar white workers". We are focusing on race rather than issues. The media keep saying "blue collar white", what African Americans don't work. Sen. Clinton victory last night was based on race and in her own words "Shame on You" How can she be happy because people voted for her just because of race.
Wow, not that the Dems should get complacent, but there appear to be LOTS OF WAYS the Dems can win this year.  Hooray for that.

Congrats to the Mississippi Dems and our newest Rep.!

Obama for our best future!
It's great that Republican attempts to play the race card have back fired.  The move energized black voters against the Republican and I suspect it doesn't have the desired effect on Republicans.  They probably feel embarassed about the ads because they see their party offers negativity instead of a positive vision.  Republicans would be better off dropping the negativity and trying to find a positive message.
Twice in as many weeks the GOP has tried and failed to hold seats in their own strongholds by attempting to nail Senator Obama to the democratic candidates.

What say you now of "unelectable" and does this not demonstrate the folly of any argument that he would hurt down the ballot?

The GOP as a brand name is toxic right now and they are in deep doo-doo come November.
*sniff, sniff*

What is that I smell?  It smells like.... it smells like...

A big storm of change a-comin'!

Republicans are in BIG trouble this fall.  The 2006 mid-terms were nothing compared to what's coming down the pike this year.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Thank you Mississippi 1st district!
Nov 08 dems will sweep to victory in house, senate and white house and then America and the world will begin to heal after 8 years of bush/cheney/mccain and repubs raping and pillaging.
Score that 3 special election victories for Barack Obama's coattails and zero for "Warmonger" McCain.  Just a preview of why Obama is the right candidate to lead our party back into the White House.

Go Obama 08/12!
this what i was talking about....the intense dislike of republicans and how bad these last 7 years have been will overide the racial issue and obama will win
YEAH! Another Democrat unseats a Republican!  Do you feel it? Do you really feel it? A change is coming! A change from "old" politics to "new politics! A change from "for the rich" to "for the people". A change brought about by Senator Obama! YES WE CAN! Congratulations Travis Childers! (My district ousted the long held Republican seat of Dennis Hastert in Illinois to Bill Foster, a Democrat, so I know of what I speak!!!)
Question: Will Childres become a superdelegate and does that change the count from 2025 to 2026? Since Obama supported him, I assume he will support Obama.
Sometimes it's the right thing to pay someone off to just go away.  I did the same thing with an ex-husband and that's all it took.
While its great that the GOP's hateful and dishonest campaigning tactics are finally beginning to be seen for what they are across the country, it is still sad and disturbing that 46% of voters anywhere are still willing to buy the Republican party's act. Folks, the only thing to do after two terms of the worst administration in memory, and two rigged general elections, is to stay home or vote for Democrats until this country is rescued from bankruptcy, corruption and fear.
Watching election coverage I hear the country being divided into smaller and smaller demographics in an attempt to find trends.  The simple divisions of black and white voters, religion, economic status, education, rural and urban, have given way to discussions of who "white Catholic women in urban areas" voted for, who "white working class men in rural areas" voted for.  If you use a fine grained enough filter you can prove anything from election results.  The reality is that the analysts are looking for a demographic group they can use to promote a narrative rather than analyzing real trends with an unbiased eye.


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