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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Clinton: All about 2012?

Posted: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 9:13 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

The New York Post’s Hurt speculates Clinton is staying in “with no hope of winning” to lay “the foundation for her political future, circa 2012.”

Per NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger, Bill Clinton took a page from his wife’s stump speech Tuesday evening in celebrating the campaign’s large victory in West Virginia. In Kalispell, MT, standing in the back of a red pickup truck in front of the backdrop of picturesque mountains, the former president started his speech outside the Flathead Valley Community College, and declared it a “great night.” He then borrowed from his wife’s victory speech earlier in the evening, recalling President Kennedy’s 1962 rain-shortened speech in Wheeling, WV, an appropriate analogy for the wet crowd that had waited hours for the former president’s arrival in a cold rain. Clinton then read, verbatim, anecdotes from Hillary’s speech on why the Clinton campaign should “finish the job.”
 
“I want to tell you tonight, first, this has been an amazing race,” he said, transitioning back to his own words. “It’s been fought largely to a draw by two extraordinary candidates with compelling visions.” His wife’s vision, he said, was the better end of the argument but said she insisted he add that the party will be united in November whoever the candidate is.

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WHO in their right mind would let that woman get another chance to ruin the Democratic Party? Unless all the Republicans turn blue for her, as far as I'm concerned, she's done as a Democrat!! NY: throw the woman out of office and save our party!!
I'm no Hillary supporter, but 40 POINTS?!  Doesn't that give anybody (media, delegates, super-delegates) pause?  Especially when this race was supposed to be over?  Don't people normally start flocking to the "winner"?

The red warning lights are flashing . . .
Uhhh...haven't we been saying this all along?

Now Billy-boy says that Barack is an "extraordinary candidate"?  I'm all for uniting the party, but their message sounded a little schizo last night.  They don't really know if they're coming or going, do they?

I saw their token AA last night - the ONLY one in that sea of old biddies and other assorted white folk.  Right out of Central Casting, that was.

BTW - what was with her MAKEUP last night?  I thought it was my TV settings at first, but all the TVs had that same red face.  Were they trying to make her match her jacket, or were they really trying to make her a "redneck"?  Sheesh.
I wouldn't feel that great about a victory where 20% actually admitted race was a factor in their vote.  How many was it really a factor, as it has been proven people are shy to admit this in exit polls?  

It is one thing to vote for someone you identify with (Catholic - Kennedy, AA's - Obama, Women - Hillary), but quite another to vote against someone because they are of a different race.

I don't think Democrats will choose the candidate solely on who best appeals to the bigot vote, nor, as Democrats, should they.
I won't vote for her in 2012 either!
Bull ...It's McCain / Clinton cross over candidate
if Obama does not offer her the VP...

The Dem's keep feeding division...they look like morons...while the GOP is ready from day one...

Get it now....Howard Dean...your losing it...
The GOP is gaining something the DEM's won't makeup.
Does Anyone Really Believe She Has A Chance IN 2012 People Will Not Forget How She Ran This Race For 20008 She Has Destroy The Democratic Party. Just Like Her Husband Did When He Lost Both The House And Senate Because Of His Lying And Cheating. Watch The Backlash
Watch for Clinton to do one of two things. Either run as an independent, or so badly endorse Obama that it's really an endorsement of McCain.
The Obamabots are in full gear today, doing damage control as their flawed candidate got creamed last night in WV!  Ok Obamabots...do your best!
I am a Democrat who will absolutely never vote for Hillary Clinton for anything again...if Obama loses due to her nonsense.

If this is her strategy - it is proof positive that she is more concerned with her EGO than the country. McCain would mean four more years of at least 2 wars, it would mean a solidly conservative Supreme Court, an economy that continues to spiral and a substandard healthcare system...

To be clear - these are reasons that I would vote for Hillary (and then go home and be sick) if she somehow manages to steal the nomination this year - but if she sabotages the Democratic nominee for her own ends - I wouldn't vote for her for dog catcher.

And let's be clear about the population with whom Obama is really having "problems" - it is NOT - as the media breathlessly reports - "white working class" people (Obama won Idaho, Iowa, Colorado, Minnisota...all with white working class people) -- Obama has problems with the racists in Appalachia. I'm not saying that all people who vote for Hillary are racist - but it's hard to imagine differently - particularly when these people say they wouldn't vote for the other candidate...a candidate that has a nearly identical policy platform - if Hillary does not get the nomination - That leaves them about one reason not to vote for Obama.
I FEEL THAT IF THE DEMOCRATS LOSE THE ELECTION IN NOVEMBER   HILLARY CLINTON WILL BE TO BLAME BECAUSE THE MATH IS AGAINST HER AND SHE SHOULD AT THIS POINT SUSPEND HER CAMPAIGN  AND HELP BRING THIS PARTY TOGETHER SO THE DEMOCRATS CAN WIN THE WHITEHOUSE BACK IN NOVEMBER.
2012 isn't going to work for her either.  With the intense media saturation/scrutiny that the candidates receive, I think that you only get one shot to run for the presidency anymore.

See: John Edwards.  John Kerry.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
I don't know that she looks particularly favorable for 2012 as she batters Obama for this General.  I don't know how she looks favorable for the Party.  I suspect people will remember her endgame (in fact, her entire campaign) this season for awhile.

Obama for our best future.
Largely to a draw?

Obama leads the popular vote.

Obama leads in pledged delegates.

Obama leads in states won.

After spotting Clinton 100 superdelegates, Obama now leads in superdelegates.

Doesn't sound like a draw to me.

So Hillary picked up a net 16 delegates in WV, give or take a few.

How many days will it take for Obama to get those 16 delegates back, via new endorsements from currently uncommitted superdelegates?

I'll go with 5.

Also, why do Clinton's lackeys keep mentioning that no Democrat has won the White House without WV since 1916?

Here is the obvious response.  

No Democrat has won the White House without Missouri since 1820.

Obama won Missouri.

Game, set, match.

Obama/anybody but Hillary Clinton in 2008.  Integrity matters and the Clintons have none.
There are two Democratic candidates that appear to represent large blocks of constituents...the big question, since most of Senator Obama's primary votes were tallied well before Rev. Wright, bittergate/bigotgate, Weather Underground Bill Ayers fundraising for him, etc?  No one can answer that question.

In addition, alot of his votes were acquired in caucuses...which do not necessarily represent the will of all the people...how will those votes stack up in a General Election?

Then, Senator Obama is a far left wing liberal...which doesn't bode well in the GE!

There are ALOT of unanswered questions...Democrats need to take a closer look!!

There is no way I believe that Senator Clinton is running for 2012...unless, she's convinced that the electability issues of Senator Obama are fatal and there's no way she can get the rest of the Democratic Party to wake up!!!

That is rediculous!

Democrats don't bring back their losers the way republicans do. Anyone seen Dukakis, Gore, or Kerry re run again? McGovern's losses set the precident that you only get one chance.

Hillary is staying in because she believes she is the best chance for November...and she is.

Last night, despite the media's insistance that the nomination is locked up, BO lost big. Democrats cannot win the white house without at least some of blue collar Amercia. The African Amercian vote is important, however, both Gore and Kerry carried >90% of the AA vote in their elections and still lost.

Kerry was a victim of not connecting with the people...Bo is proving to be the same type of candidate.

BO talks about a change...PLEASE! We are seeing the establishment (Pelosi and Kennedy) of Washington in action. They want the new kid and will risk the white house in November to put him there with the SDs. Because in the end...they don't care about blue collar America anymore than he does.
2012 for Sen. Clinton?  After all the failures and mistakes she has made this campaign, who would want to support her again?  She has marginalized so many states (states that count, caucuses are undemocratic, big states matter, etc.) that her opposition would only need to splice together video and air them, using her own words to damn a repeat campaign.  

This is her last (and only) chance.
I wouldn't feel great about winning a race that I encouraged race to be a factor.
I agree with MI Chick with the brother conveniently placed behind Senator Clinton last night. I was astounded to learn 7% of the people from West Viriginia voted for John Edwards -- what does that say?

I have heard a lot of people speculating as to what Senator Obama has to do to win this group of people Senator Clinton has been courting in this south/eastern quadrant of America. I think it's actually Senator Clinton who has to do something to keep them in the party -- she work to keep them plugged into the bigger picture of a Democrat in the White House. Also, will she change her affectation when she travels West?

Finally, pictures of Senator Clinton and her husband in the back of flatbed pick up trucks do not send positve signals to African- Americans -- they may not realize it -- but that's not a good look -- not a good look at all...
Don't worry...she will be Gov. Clinton for NY in 2010.
"Desperate" Hillary can write off 2012 too.  If she's looking to a future run she'd better get used to having to wait until 2016, after barack Obama leaves office after two highly successful terms in office.  She'd also better be real nice to Barack starting now if she wants to show us Democrats that didn't vote for her that she's worthy of our vote now.

Go Obama 08/12!
The contest between Hillary and Obama has brought out more and more Democrats. At this point, probably every Democrat is glued to the results. People are really listening, and by now, discussing and understanding every word. This is an enlightened public after years of apathy during which things went from bad to ridiculous. As for strategy, I don't believe this could have been planned -- all this free advertising for the Democratic Party and a race so tense and exciting that more than one participant on a talk show in Boston compared it to the Super Bowl. It has made McCain just about invisible. After the nomination, this same enlightened public will have the brains and insight to vote even more intelligently. We will be listening for substance and we will not be fooled.

I am an avid Hillary supporter. I am a middle aged member of the working class, on the low end, and I have three college degrees. Forty years ago, I left the high end corporate working class on Madison Avenue in New York City to be in the low end working class in Maine, and it was the best decision I ever made.  Maine is "impoverished" because we have less cash here, but we are by far, richer in every other way. I pray that Hillary will be the nominee because she is the only one who will stop the epidemic of blood suckers and provide the leadership that will give us back our beautiful country.

What I got from West Virginia is that we will not allow party bosses, especially from our own party, to steal this vital election.
People have been saying this all along. It's been the MSM that has tried to downplay it as something that was crazy or not possible for her to do. If Hillary Clinton sees she can not get her shot this year she will make certain that has another shot in 2012 and that means hurting Obama so much in underhanded ways that he'll lose the election this year.

Some might say that there will be to much of a backlash if she does that and people won't vote for her. True many people won't since they'll rightly blame her but there are just as many people that don't think critically (this isn't a rich or poor thing either), are easily fooled, mislead, or just plain stupid that will.

Most people know what kind of state West Virginia is. The 40 point win means nothing in the end. There will always be people that won't vote for Sen. Obama no matter what. Just so happens that WV has a larger concentration then any other state. That stated in large numbers believed Hillary on the gas tax holiday pander/scam.

I said it before and I'll say it again I believe that vote last night said more about WV then it ever did about Sen. Obama.

Can we please stop with the whole "blue color working class". Why can't we simply stick to "poverty, poor, middle class, and rich" and  be done with it? Sorry but if you work you are part of the working class end of story. The only flip side to that is if you don't work then you are apart of the unemployed.
A proud "Obamabot" gearing up:

1. Even though HRC "creamed" Obama in WV, she netted a total of 12 delegates. Obama garnered over twice as many (27-30) in the week between IN/NC and WV.

2. The "creaming" in WV was projected WEEKS AGO.  Everyone knew that the demographics were ripe for HRC in WV. Anything less than the victory she scored would have been a disappointment for HRC. In fact, the turnout was lower than the HRC campaign had hoped, and her net gain in popular vote was less than they expected.

3. Think coattails - we've had three special elections where a Democrat has beaten a Republican in a Republican stronghold.  All three of these Democrats were linked to Obama (by the Republicans, no less), and still won.  HRC does not have these coattails, and neither did Bill Clinton as a sitting President.

Damage control complete!!
In 2012, she will be competing for the primaries against a candidate (any candidate) who will get 90% of the AA vote. No black person in America will ever vote for Hillary if Obama loses the Presidency.
Can we vote her [Hillary] out of the DEM party?  She's like a malignant cancer.  She's stiring up too much raciam.
Has anyone picked up super delegates yet today?
I agree...this will be Mrs. Clintons final bow on the national political scene.  Everything about her campaign has been a mistake and she's only done damage to herself.  And, if she's going to ask the nominee to bail out her campaign to the tune of $20 million, who would she ask for a bail-out if she were President?  Colombia?  Her schtick is over!
It is crystal clear to me why Hillary is still in this race, when there is no chance for her to win. She will devide the party, and her supporters will vote for McCain. If Obama loses to McCain, then she will run again in 2012. Bill and Hillary Clinton will stab the democrat party and the American people in the back just to get what they want. People of West Virginia, they will turn on you too. Look how they turned on the black voters, when they didn't flock to their side. Please vote obama08
If Hillary insist in staying in race to further cause divide with her comments when its is obvious she cannot be the nominee, I will not vote for her in 2012, this is not a threat but a promise.  When you harm the party during the crisis in our country I will not forget and forgive.
The Obamabots are in full gear today, doing damage control as their flawed candidate got creamed last night in WV!  Ok Obamabots...do your best!
                         pat huntington ny
------------------------------------------------------
How is the toothless win yesterday being "creamed"? She still isn't going to win the nomination. The math isn't there....or wasn't math your strong subject?
Pat in Huntington:

That's OK with me.  I don't live in New York.  If you want that corrupt, race baiting, pandering, pathological liar for your governor, you can have her.

Obama/Anybody but Hillary Clinton in 2008.  Integrity matters and the Clintons have none.
My family won't be voting in the general election if Obama is the nominee.  Obama is one sly character though. Don't we already have one of those in the Whitehouse?
Mkd is dead on. Someone put that post on TV for Chrissake!


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