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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Delegate update: Clinton's super, more

Posted: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 2:39 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A few updates... Clinton picked up the endorsement of TN DNC member Vicky Harwell, president of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women. (We mentioned in First Thoughts Obama picking up 2.5 supers overnight.)

NBC NEWS has also now allocated the remaining delegates in West Virginia, and Clinton finished with a 20-8 split when all was said and done. NBC NEWS also allocated the lone remaining Democrats Abroad/Territories delegate for Clinton. The totals below are updated.

THE NBC NEWS DELEGATE COUNTS:
PLEDGED: Obama 1599-1447
SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 287.5, Clinton 276.5
TOTAL: Obama 1,886.5 to 1,723.5.
 
* 233 superdelegate undecided. (There are now 797 total superdelegates with the inclusions of Foster, Cazayoux and Childers.)
 
* 2,026 is what's needed to nominate now -- one higher than yesterday after Dems won the congressional seat in MS-1.
 
* Obama needs 139.5 to reach the magic number; Clinton needs 302.5.
 
* Since last Tuesday, Obama has picked up 31 superdelegates to Clinton's 1.5.
  
Today, it's Obama 4.5 to 2 over Clinton. (Obama got Lena Taylor, Oklahoma's Mike Morgan, state senate pro tempore as well as 2.5 others overnight; Clinton picked up the endorsement of Tennessee DNC member Vicky Harwell, president of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women.)

*** UPDATE *** Obama picked up Oklahoma superdelegate Mike Morgan, the state senate president pro tempore. (Numbers are adjusted above.)

*** UPDATE 2 *** The Obama campaign announced it got the support of Wisconsin's Lena Taylor. (Numbers adjusted).

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I think it will all end next Tuesday.

Obama is waaay up in Oregon.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
After last nite’s election I wondered how on earth Hillary can live with herself after taking advantage of the WV voters who are so obviously poor, uneducated, and ignorant.  One of the most powerful lines from a “Few Good Men” occurred to me:

“We're supposed to fight for people who can't fight for themselves.”

Yet, Hillary – the self proclaimed champion of these people -- continues to manipulate and con them with pretty smiles and false promises.

And then, I realized:  Hillary is a sociopath – not in the sense of a sociopathic killer (altho’ the conspiracy theorists would dispute that!) but in the clinical anti-social personality disorder category.  This is why she’s still campaigning; this is why she will sabotage Obama or anyone who gets in her way.  This is why rules and math don’t matter.  This is why we don’t want her in the White House as president or VP.

Below are just SOME of the behaviors that Hillary has exhibited -- I’m sure you can come up with plenty of examples to support each of these symptoms.

And to my fellow Dems and Hillary supporters, I’m asking, no begging, you to read this with an open mind and to consider this:  Hillary does NOT care about you.   You are simply a means to her end.  

Profile of the Sociopath (borrowed from the website: http://www.mcafee.cc/Bin/sb.html)

1. Glibness and Superficial Charm;
2. Manipulative and Conning;
3. Grandiose Sense of Self :  feels entitled to certain things as "their right";
4. Pathological Lying:  has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis. Can create, and get caught up in, a complex belief about their own powers and abilities;
5. Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt:  a deep seated rage, which is split off and repressed, is at their core. Does not see others around them as people, but only as targets and opportunities. The end always justifies the means and they let nothing stand in their way.
6. Shallow Emotions: when they show what seems to be warmth, joy, love and compassion it is more feigned than experienced and serves an ulterior motive;
7. Callousness/Lack of Empathy: unable to empathize with the pain of their victims, having only contempt for others' feelings of distress and readily taking advantage of them.
8. Poor Behavioral Controls/Impulsive Nature: believe they are all-powerful, all-knowing, entitled to every wish, no sense of personal boundaries, no concern for their impact on others;
9. Irresponsibility/Unreliability:  not concerned about wrecking others' lives and dreams. Oblivious or indifferent to the devastation they cause. Does not accept blame themselves, but blames others, even for acts they obviously committed. Does not perceive that anything is wrong with them;
10. Conventional appearance;
11.  Exercises despotic control over every aspect of the victim's life: has an emotional need to justify their crimes and therefore needs their victim's affirmation (respect, gratitude and love)
Incapable of real human attachment to another;
12.  Extreme narcissism and grandiose:  may state readily that their goal is to rule the world.

55 year old white woman with a brain and former psychiatric diagnostician.
In case you were wondering what's really happening......

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/articles/dana+milbank/

Wouldn't it be sad that the democrats loose in '08 due to Hillary supporters, or another way to say it, because of Hillary Clinton...WOULDN'T IT BE SAD TO SAY ROE V WADE WAS OVERTURNED DUE TO HILLARY SUPPORTERS AND BECAUSE OF HILLARY
Don't call it a comeback!
Where's Obama Superdelegates for the day?  
Other sources are reporting at least TWO.

Whatever, Hillary needs a headline--she can only afford free press.
Is race and non-party affiliation affecting the nomination process? You decide. Research this yourself. Are we as a nation being told the truth by the pundits and the media about racism in this election? Here are some examples.

Wisconsin: numbers broken down by exit polls:
Actual results:
Clinton: 452,795 or 42%
Obama: 646,007 or 58%
(Appears to be landslide in an all white state)

If only Democrats had voted: 648,303
Clinton: 308,103 47.5 %
Obama: 340,200 52.5%

Actual voting % by race:
Total Black: 65,930 or 6%
Obama: 60,653 or 92%
Clinton: 5,274
White democrats:  582,365 or 53%
Obama: 279,535 or 48%
Clinton: 302,829

If the black vote mirrored their candidate like the white vote for Hillary, this is how it would have been among Democratic voters in this primary:
Obama: 34,283 or 52%
Clinton:  31,646 or 48%
The results would have been:
Obama: 313,818 (279,533 + 34,283) or 48.4%
Clinton: 337,118 or 51.6%
Is race a factor?

Total votes non-Democratic affiliation: 417,544 or 38%
Obama: 274,260 or 65.6%
Clinton: 143,635 or 34.4%
Is non-party affiliation a factor?

Next case:
North Carolina:
Actual results:
Clinton: 688,037 or 44%
Obama: 875,683 or 56%

If only Democrats had voted: 1,157,152
Clinton: 462,860 or 40 %
Obama: 703,362 or 60%
(Apparent landslide)

Actual voting % by race:
Total Black: 500,390 or 32%
Obama: 460,359 or 92%
Clinton: 40,031 or 8 %
Total White: 656,762 or 42%
Obama: 243,002 or 37%
Clinton: 413,760 or 63%


If the black vote had just went 63/37 Obama like the white vote, this is how it would have been among Democratic voters in this primary:
Black vote:
Obama: 315,246 or 63%
Clinton:  185,144 or 37%
The results would have been:
Obama: 558,248 (315,246 + 243,002) or 48.3%
Clinton: 598,904 or 51.7%
Is race a factor?


Total votes non-Democratic affiliation: 359,655
Obama: 131,195 or 36.4%
Clinton: 228,740 or 63.6%
Is non-party affiliation a factor?

Indiana:
Actual results: 1,274,993
Clinton: 644,596 or 51%
Obama: 630,399 or 49%

If only Democrats had voted: 815,995
Clinton: 425,949 or 52.2%
Obama: 390,785 or 47.8%


Actual voting % by race:
Total Black: 191,249
Obama: 172,124 or 90%
Clinton: 19,124 or 10%
Total White: 624,746
Obama: 218,661 or 35%
Clinton: 406,085 or 65%


If the black vote had just went 65/35 Obama like the white vote, this is how it would have been among Democratic voters in this primary:
Black vote: 191,249
Obama: 124,311 or 65%
Clinton:  66,937 or 35%
The results would have been:
Obama: 342,972 or 42%
Clinton: 473,277 or 58%
Is race a factor?


Total votes non-Democratic affiliation: 446,248 or 35%
Obama: 222,042 or 49%
Clinton: 227,586 or 586
Is non-party affiliation a factor?

Who is being racist if racism isn’t a factor? Is the Democratic Party really being unified or is racism playing a part in this election? You make the call. Do the math yourself. Are we really about to send the best candidate to the general election? Send this to everyone you know and to every super delegate you know.
Clinton Republicans for McCain.

McCain 08

Obama supporters please stop the fear mongering about the Supreme court and rove vs wade being overturned.

It only makes you look Republican.
It is possible for HRC, but it's not likely. Math, it is what it is.  

As of Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Obama Clinton
1599 1447
285.5 276.5
1884.5 1723.5

(omitting FL and MI)

There are only 424 available delegates (189 of which are elected) remaining to get to 2026

BHO needs 141.5 or 33.4% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 302.5 or 71.3% of the total remaining delegates


IF you count FL (as is) and MI (as proposed)

There are still only 424 available delegates remaining to get to 2209

BHO needs 196.5 or 46.3% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 312.5 or 73.7% of the total remaining delegates


IF you count FL (as is) and skip MI

There are still only 424 available delegates remaining to get to 2130

BHO needs 176.5 or 41.6% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 302.5 or 71.3% of the total remaining delegates
If I correctly understood Chuck the Todd last night, the pledged/elected delegate total available is 3235, of which all but 189 have been selected, elected, or allocated.  Thus, the majority of those so elected is 1618, making Mr. Obama's 'magic number' 19.  

Presumably, when those 19 come across this coming Tuesday, any 'superdelegate' who has basically committed to honoring the 'elected majority' of primary delegates will also 'whoosh' across pushing things awfully close to the 2026 and establishing an even more commanding lead.

Given this math (and the underlying powerful sentiment which got Mr. Obama here), it's definitely time to start 'cleaning up the mess', which is the subject of an excellent new Esquire lengthy article by Charles Pierce.

Good luck, and may not another dollar be spent by the rest of us to fund Mrs. Clinton's extended exercise.  Yes, she can engage in it, but as far as I'm concerned it should be, quite literally, on 'her dime' since March 4, probably before.
The Democratic nomination process will be over by next Tuesday and it will be the small amount of pledged delegates Barack Obama receives from Kentucky and the large amount from Oregon that will get him over the top. The superdelegates will be coming 10 a day between now and then.
The superdelegates are seriously coming out strong for Obama now! That is great!!

http://www.politivine.com
It is amazing that the superdelegates don't just vote. They have had about 45 contests, they must know Clinton and Obama's positions on every topic. Millions of citizens have voted, but still these "super" delegates have not declared. What is wrong with these folks. They are acting....like such Democrats, without a firm conviction. VOTE ALREADY AND GET THIS PROCESS OVER. Or let it drag on and go to the convention, where it will be like 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988 and the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  
KEEP FIGHTING HILLARY!!!!
Obama has NOT WON - how Arrogant of him to claim the nominee - maybe he should pay more attention to those states he does not need - stop ignoring states that do not have a large AA group to carry him.  He will NEED ALL Americans to win.
IF IF IF obama gets his 141 - than he will be the nominee - he has NOT won - how Arrogant of him to claim victory!!!
IF he wants to be the nominee - than KNOCK HILLARY OUT!  He just cannot seem to do this! WHY - Because MILLIONS of people keep VOTING for her - even when the obama group screams its over - guess NOT!
VOTES - REAL VOTES - Count - not like caucus - talk about fraud!
Obama needs 141.5 to reach magic number for the nomination; Clinton needs 302.5.

Kinda puts West Virginia into perspective, doesn't it?
Looks like they should have stayed home and drank more moonshine!
Swing states, big states, whatever....
What does the majority of governors, senators, and US representatives who endorse Obama know that we don't know?
I'll trust their judgement over that of the voters in WV.
Obama can whip McCain, Hillary cannot.


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