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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Down the ballot: Sounding the alarm

Posted: Thursday, May 15, 2008 8:54 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

The GOP alarm has now been sounded. “The Republican defeat in a special Congressional contest in Mississippi sent waves of apprehension across an already troubled party Wednesday, with some senior Republicans urging Congressional candidates to distance themselves from President Bush to head off what could be heavy losses in the fall,” the New York Times reports. ‘This was a real wake-up call for us,” Robert M. Duncan, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, said in an interview. ‘We can’t let the Democrats take our issues. We can’t let them pretend to be conservatives and co-opt the middle and win these elections. We have to get the attention of our incumbents and candidates and make sure they understand this.’”

“Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and former leader of his party’s Congressional campaign committee, issued a dire warning that the Republican Party had been severely damaged, in no small part because of its identification with President Bush. Mr. Davis said that, unless Republican candidates changed course, they could lose 20 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. ‘They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate,’ Mr. Davis said in a memorandum. ‘The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006.’”

Politico adds, “The Republican defeat in Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi … was a clear sign that the GOP has the political equivalent of cancer that has spread throughout the body. Many House GOP operatives are privately predicting that the party could easily lose up to 20 seats this fall. Combined with the 30 seats that the GOP lost in 2006, that would leave the party facing a 70-vote deficit against Democrats in the House -- a state of powerlessness reminiscent of Republicans’ long wilderness years in the 1960s and ’70s.”

“Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who runs the committee tasked with helping elect Republicans to Congress, said Tuesday's defeat in Mississippi -- after losing GOP seats in other special elections in Illinois and Louisiana -- was evidence that 'a large section of the American people doesn't have confidence in the Republican Party.'"

The Boston Globe: “In addition to foreshadowing more losses for the party in November, the outcome appeared to undermine the notion that Senator Barack Obama could be a liability for other Democratic candidates in conservative regions.”

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This is a sign that dems is about to take over the GOP.


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The GOP is in trouble and they know it. 8 years of a failed presidency have left them with little hope of continuing their brutal power trip.

http://www.politivine.com
[T]he outcome appeared to undermine the notion that Senator Barack Obama could be a liability for other Democratic candidates in conservative regions.
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Indeed.  People are smarter than the stupid guilt-by-association attacks that the GOP has been trying in recent days.

People want change - and whether you like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Ron Paul or someone else - the Republican establishment does NOT offer the change that Americans are seeking.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
GOP...It is too late.  No matter what you say or how you say it.  The Majority of the American people want nothing to do with your party.  Your party had it's chance to deal with this administration and you follow them and help them destory our country. Putting distance from the President now ...means nothing ..we are not stupid.  YOU think you have a message...and it's all about being conservative..and taxes..YOUR party is "out of touch" and has been and based on the current comments you guy are making..IT is evident that you are still out of touch.  This is way beyond President Bush..this is the GOP ..we have a problem with ..YOU guys are no longer respected.  People consider the GOP as crooks, selfess, and rotten to the core.  THE GOP will not win the general election...because the American people do not want you too....NOTHING YOU SAY....SPINNING...SLANDER...GUTTER POLITICS...DISTANCE FROM GEORGE BUSH....NOTHING MATTER....DO YOU HEAR N O T H I N G.  
The GOP has a lot to worry about...But they are like Hillary...too little to late. It will be a landslide in the general.
The mortor between the bricks is crumbling..

McShame will be proud to report he is still doing a good job for GOP ...NOT!!!!!
Bush's legacy has possibly done more damage to McCain's chances (and Republicans in general) than Nixon's legacy did to Gerald Ford (and Republicans in general) in the 1970s.
The GOP president is a total failure. The GOP congress marched in lock step with anything and everything he wanted, without regard to the voters who elected them. Distancing themselves now is too little too late. The GOP presumptive nominee is trying to distance himself also, but is obviously a lapdog for the ignorant cowboy. The GOP can continue to lie to the American public, and try to make themselves out to be something they are not, but for the most part they have squandered any and all trust. You can always tell when a republican is lieing, his lips are moving!
People are still thinking about the bridge to nowhere and other things that the Republican Congress did.  The current president is also a cause for concern.  He claims to be a conservative, but the only thing that I see as him acting as a conservative is the tax cut.  There has been a growth in the size of government, huge bloated budgets and an unnecessary war in Iraq while we were still fighting in Afghanistan (it wasn't secured since the Taliban is still fighting back).  The coats of George W. Bush are killing the Republicans and destroying the coalition that Reagan built in the 1980's.  
Maybe if the GOP grew a set and decided long ago to take a stand and didn't treat the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue as King George...
I would love to see an interview of Bush where the interviewer reads Tom Davis's words to Bush and asks for his comments.  Or maybe Fox could interview their boy Rove and ask him what happened to the 20- year Republican dominance he had envisioned?
AAAAUUUUUUUUGH...DIVE DIVE...DEPTH CHARGES IN THE WATER!!!!!!GOP BRACE YOURSELVES>>>>

OOOOOOOOOOOOOBBBAAAAAAAAAAMMMMAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

silence....<<<<VICTROY>>>>>!!!!!!!
Now maybe my guys will stop fooling around and get back to the basics of life.  

The Texas senate seats are safe......
too many hands were in the Celis money pot.......
Democrats would be slaughtered if they try to run......
WHAT in the world did the GOP expect? Bush's rating is at 30%. For a Party that likes to zero in on numbers, this one seems to escape them. People are fed up with Bush and the Republicans; that shouldn't be too hard to understand. And if they think that just by "distancing" themselves from Bush right now, after letting the man ruin the country for the past 7 years, that that will make a difference in November, I've got news for them.......roll President Barack Obama around on your tongues for awhile. People want change and Barack will bring it. Obama '08
yes even the repubs now realize that screwing America DOES NOT WORK so now they are going to pretend that they really really did not mean all that repulsive stuff they have done the last 8 years.  NOV 08 WILL BE A CLEAN SWEEP OF THE REPUBS OUT OF OFFICE AND THEN THE DEMS WILL BEGIN TO HEAL AMERICA
Bushie's Legacy? Destroying the Republican Party, eroding any respect held towards us in the Global communty, weakening our Military readiness, tanking our economy, shredding our Constitution, as well as destabilizing the entire Middle East, and perpetrating war crimes. His Father must be so proud.(NOT)  
It is good to see the Republican Party waking up; even if it is a few years later than the Democratic Party and the People of the Nation.

This article still seems to point out the differences in perception that will continue to haunt them. There are no "Republican Issues" anymore, and no "Democratic Issues" either. The Nation's public is now looking at everything on it's own merits. We want good leadership and reasoned solutions for the Nation's problems. While the economy is on everyone's mind, along with this foolish war posture we have been presenting to the rest of the world, we have all come to realize that "partisanship" is not necessarily the answer to any of our problems. The folks we will be supporting will be folks who recognize the need to work together as one Nation; rather than the old school methods of attempting to divide the country into small segments and thereby justify antipathy.

Take your time; get your morning coffee and whatever else it takes to get you energized; but understand, we are not looking for nay-sayers, we want engaged, active advocates for the American Public in office; no matter what their political; affiliations.

Welcome to the new day!
Well, what do you expect.  Many have put their faith in the Rep. Party for years.  Only to have requests repeatedly ignored by a president who is only serving his own agenda.  Of course the American People are going to put a stop to it!  We can only stomach it so long.
Republicans should have been alarmed long before this. We gave them 8 years to run the country and what did they do? Cut taxes for their rich buddies, made the oil companies the richest corporations in US history, continued a war that should had been over years ago, sent thousands of jobs over seas, bailed out large banks as a reward for their deceitful lending practices, stripped us of habeus corpus, allowed torture to become apart of our human rights record, protected corrupt politicians from trials, lied to us about WMDs, and the list goes on and on of what the republicans have done for us. Do they really think they can change in a few months? Sorry, I may be naive but I'm not stupid.
For an old Republican-hater like me, the last few days obviously have been very sweet like me. But if there are Dems out there who are feeling triumphant and unstoppable right now, I would suggest taking a moment to remember the summer of 2003 -- when Iraq was still "mission accomplished," the economy and stock market were both heading the right way and the Republicans held all three branches of the government and looked likely to hold them for a generation.

In politics, there are no permanent majorities. The future belongs to no one.    
Too late!  If the Republicans had wanted to distance themselves from Bush they should have worked with the Dems to draw down or at least form some kind of end plan for the Iraq war.  They could also have worked with the dems to fund healthcare for children.  Instead, they chose to stand with Bush and stubbornly ignore what Americans wanted from their representatives.......REPRESENTATION!!!  So you choose, you lose!!  Stand with Bush and go down in history as a failure.  They've had so many chances to change their evil ways.  It's like reading about MCCain predicting a win in Iraq within 4 years.  This is supposed to sound good to America?  Another 4 years of war?  This guy is clueless.  Not only does America not want another 4 years of war, but Americans couldn't trust a Republican to do what they say they will do anyway.  They've had 8 years (4 of which they were in complete control) and look how they messed up this country.  I think the Republicans will be lucky to even have a party at all after what they've done to our country.  Their selfish capitalistic has turned this country into a trainwreck and has made most of them very rich.  I hope their new found wealth is enough to sustain them because they won't be getting votes from the majority of Americans for a VERY LONG TIME!!!


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