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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



HRC hits pundits, touts pop. vote lead

Posted: Sunday, May 18, 2008 7:44 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
MAYFIELD, KY -- Saying the region had a “special place” in the heart of the Clinton family, Hillary Clinton told a large crowd here that she’s waging this campaign for people like them, not the pundits on TV.

“There were some folks who didn’t want Kentucky to vote,” she said. “There are some folks, you can see them on TV every night, who wanted it to be over for me after Iowa. And every time they say it, something funny happens. The voters don’t agree.”

She said these talking heads are “talking at us instead of with us,” and that they don’t have as much at stake in the election.

“I would bet every single one of those folks, they’ve got a job; we can see that. They’ve got good health care; we know that. They can pay whatever the charge is at the gas pump most likely. They can send their child to college. I’m not running to represent them, I’m running to fight for you and to be your champion.”

Clinton also repeated that she is "leading in the popular vote" -- although that claim is based only on when you add the votes she gained from the contests in Florida and Michigan, and Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in the latter race. 

"And the states that I have won are states a Democrat has to win if we are going to be elected in the fall," she said. "People ask me all the time: 'Why, why are you continuing to fight on?' Well, because I’ve got more votes. Because I believe I’d be the best president. And I believe I’m the stronger candidate to defeat Sen. McCain."

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Comments

Hypocrisy is an ugly trait.

Attempting to find a way to claim victory with "Popular Vote" is fine, but you can't do that in the primaries which are nominating contests based on winning pledged delegates, while at the same time attempting to claim to be the better General candidate by claiming to have better Electoral College numbers!

This mind you following her claim in 2000 that the Electoral College was unconstitutional.  Stop trying to steal the 2008 Dem nomination in the same way YOU accused Bush of stealing the White House in 2000.  Doing so makes you (HILLARY) look much worse than Bush himself on the same topic.
Uh, no one said they don't want Kentucky to vote.

Barack Obama didn't stop the Florida & Michigan revotes either.

The Clinton's keep making this stuff up. It doesn't make them bad people, but they do cling to the politics of old.

Obama '08
It's the Electoral College, stupid!

I find it real troubling that Obama is having a hard time winning blue-collar workers, Catholics, and Jews..... and even more troubling is his struggle w/ Hispanics and older white women (the most impt swing voters in this election)

ONLY DEMOCRATS would do something this stupid!  

I'm having major Buyer's Remorse here.... I don't think Obama can win the Electoral College!
There moving the goal post again Geeeeeeeeeeeeez, whats next....I am have trouble find the goal post from the last time HRC supporters moved it.......
she needs to get off that talking point.  The only way she gets the popular vote is with MI and FL and when you don't factor in the caucus states.  Also, after Tues, it won't work at all in any stretch of the imagination.

I understand that Terry McAuliffe tried the "she's got the popular vote" routine at the Colorado Democratic State Convention and he was booed and people shouted "liar".  So I don't think this popular vote thing they're using is fooling anybody.
Give it up, Hillary. This is getting more and more pathetic.
Hillary is the strongest. She also gave her word to stay till the end and she keeps her word. I think it is great that someone wants all votes to count.She has been fighting the press and Obamas people telling everyone that it was over for ages. More will come out about Obama thats why he wants this to end before it does. Wright is going to start pushing his book. That should be interesting. His wife made a bad sermon at the pulpit of there church.What about Sinclair and Young.  Stay strong Hillary. we need you for 08 Pres.It is Hillarys soultions they both tout.Obama cannt tell the truth and he has said his judgement is flawed.What else does he have?He is arrogant and makes fun of people. Ca isnt the only time he has.He was heard telling a friend "watch how I make these whiteys swoon" That was the last time they (fainted) His wife make blacks leave the stage and called for whites to fill it so it looked like they had white support. Than they whine about everyone else useing the race card.Pathetic
Hillary? Didn't the Donald fire you a few months ago? Your broke and in debt up to your lying tongue! Please go away!  Serve America small favor shut up and go away!
Hillary? Didn't the Donald fire you a few months ago? Your broke and in debt up to your lying tongue! Please go away!  Serve America small favor shut up and go away!
HRC, shut up for three minutes,, the Donald fired you months ago!11
Hillary's count also doesn't count caucus votes.  This makes no sense.  These are real votes, and if anything, they are representative of more votes and should hold more weight, but Clinton says they shouldn't count at all.

It's absurd to say you've won the popular vote when you add some things that aren't legit (yet), exclude other things that are legit, etc.  Nobody buys this.

She should stick to her policies, her experience, etc.  I'm not a Clinton person, but I can give her respect in these categories.

Even a lot of Clinton supporters I've seen have a hard time with her popular vote math.  It's hard to get behind something so convoluted and erroneous.  Hillary, you have plenty of real strengths, no need to make things up!
That's not news, that is HRC typical spin. Now 75,000 in  a rally in Portland, that is news.

Has the fat lady sung?
Give it up Hillary. It's over, fold up your tent and call it a night.  Democrats Unite!  Remember how you felt in 2004?  Don't let this happen again.
COmical, but pathetic
Enough of Fantasyland.

Clinton fatigue has sent in.

Obama 2008
I think Hillary has gotten quite favorable coverage, even now considering her situation.  As an Edwards supporter, I wish he had been covered for the year before the primaries in the way that Clinton was covered.

These same pundits bought into her "inevitability" argument for almost a year, and then when other candidates would have been counted out, they were echoing the idea of "never count out a Clinton".

It is now pretty much a mathematical certainty and yet the press is still waiting for either lightning to strike or the earth to open up to give Clinton another chance.  No one would even be saying such a thing about anyone but a Clinton IMO.

I think Clinton and Obama have both gotten amazing coverage and the other candidates were completely ignored.
Enough of Fantasyland.

Clinton fatigue has sent in.

Obama 2008
She also doesn't include caucus states in that count.

Remember: Hillary Clinton thinks you are stupid.

And by you I mean the press too.
But... I thought the metric du jour was MAP not MATH.

I can't keep up.
Wow, now she's dissing the media...  It's almost 'Swan Song' time...  

You fought a great fight, Hill, but the baggage, and 'old style negative campaign style' didn't help a bit.  Hopefully, that 'crap over substance' style is gone forever...  We're not dummies out here, so please Mr. Pudnits, don't talk down to us...  
Obama '08
This is a problem; she should not continue to make the popular vote argument at this point in the game. I understand her wish to keep campaigning, which I see primarily as a need to show respect to those who supported her up to this point and want to see the conclusion, yet she must do so in a manner that will allow the results to be properly respected when the time comes. The popular vote argument is completely and utterly incorrect on many levels:  it unfairly gives Obama zero votes from Michigan, it completely ignores caucus states, where Obama had many significant victories (thereby making her claims to wish simply to 'count every vote' rather laughable when she is completely eliminating the results from many states), and it misinforms concerning the nature of the process as a whole.

I applaud her recent reluctance to continue attacking Obama as a candidate, which is clearly a sign that she sees a necessary unification upon his victory in the coming weeks, yet the popular vote argument only adds to the completely false sense of some of her supporters that the nomination has been somehow stolen from her. Her campaign failed on many, many practical levels, from basic planning to reading the mood of the electorate to questionable attacks to ceding many states (especially caucuses) to Obama. This notion that she deserves the nomination, while lacking in any sound reasoning, only inflames those who feel she has been wronged and, combined with a strong personal identification (especially coming from certain older women), leads to the possibility of protest votes against Obama. She damages the party by continuing this illusion; I thought there would be a graceful exit, and her recent change in tone concerning Obama gave me further hope, but the popular vote nonsense is inexcusable, and will leave only her to blame if party unity is not achieved after her loss.

Hillary does not have the lead in popular vote.  Anyway the popular vote is not how we choose a candidate, delegates do those are the RULES.  There are at least 4 caucus states that do not report their vote.  She cannot claim the MI vote under any circumstances because Obama was not even on the ballot.  And as far as I am concerned all racist votes should not be counted (WV)
I can't believe this is the kind of unifying campaigning the party wants.  Plus it reinforces her credibility problem since she counts no votes for caucuses.  What is sad is that HRC is not only looking bad now, but creating a serious problem for her on political future.
and she looses the lead if you give obama the michigan uncommitteds...

i understand its her only hope, but the games over, the superdelegates, NARAL, the media, even her advisors all recognize that this thing is over..

im sick of all their funny math and all the new and very bizzare metrics they try to use...ill be glad when its officially over in a couple weeks.
Hey Hillary,

You can stop using the "I lead in popular vote" line anytime.  We all know that figure is only based on  the "Clinton Calculation" and is also coupled with a similar premise that the delegate count needed is something higher than 2,025.  You're not electable and you're no longer in the race.  Besides the pundits, what about all the supers who have figured this out and declared for Obama. How about showing some class and call it a night!  
What happened to her G's? Listen to her speeched is WV and Kentucky.  How strange that this Welesly educated, 100 million dollar earning Senator from New York now talks like a gun totin', whisky drinkin' Kentucky born gal. WHAT A PHONEY!  No wonder she lost.
How was Hitler able to become Chancellor in January 1933?

The story of why Hitler came to power is about the reasons why the German people lost their senses and allowed a vicious madman to come to power. What could have brought this about?
All the following were present from the 1920s:
1. Long-term bitterness
Deep anger about the First World War and the Treaty of Versailles created an underlying bitterness to which Hitler’s viciousness and expansionism appealed, so they gave him support.
2. Ineffective Constitution
Weaknesses in the Constitution crippled the government. In fact, there were many people in Germany who wanted a return to dictatorship. When the crisis came in 1929–1933 – there was no one who was prepared or able to fight to stop Hitler.
3. Money
The financial support of wealthy businessmen gave Hitler the money to run his propaganda and election campaigns.
4. Propaganda
Nazi propaganda persuaded the German masses to believe that the Jews were to blame and that Hitler was their last hope.
5. Programme
Hitler promised everybody something, so they supported him.
6. Attacks on other parties
The Stormtroopers attacked Jews and people who opposed Hitler. Many opponents kept quiet simply because they were scared of being murdered – and, if they were, the judges simply let the Stormtroopers go free (see point 2).
7. Personal Qualities
Hitler was a brilliant speaker, and his eyes had a peculiar power over people. He was a good organiser and politician. He was a driven, unstable man, who believed that he had been called by God to become dictator of Germany and rule the world. This kept him going when other people might have given up. His self-belief persuaded people to believe in him.
After 1929, however, two short-term factors brought Hitler to power:
8. Economic Depression
After the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the US called in its loans to Germany, and the German economy collapsed. The Number of unemployed grew; people starved on the streets. In the crisis, people wanted someone to blame, and looked to extreme solutions – Hitler offered them both, and Nazi success in the elections grew.
Germans turned to Nazism because they were desperate. The number of Nazi seats in the Reichstag rose from 12 in 1928 to 230 in July 1932.
9. Recruited by Hindenburg
In November 1932 elections the Nazis again failed to get a majority of seats in the Reichstag. Their share of the vote fell – from 230 seats to only 196. Hitler contemplated suicide. But then he was rescued by Hindenburg.
Franz von Papen (a friend of Hindenburg) was Chancellor, but he could not get enough support in the Reichstag. Hindenburg and von Papen were having to govern by emergency decree under Article 48 of the Constitution. They offered Hitler the post of vice-Chancellor if he promised to support them.
Hitler refused – he demanded to be made Chancellor. So Von Papen and Hindenburg took a risk. On 30 January 1933 Hindenburg made Hitler Chancellor. He thought he could control Hitler – how wrong he was.
In the end, Hitler did not TAKE power at all – he was given it.

"Well said, and for those who don't know history they are doomed to repeat it. How frightening it is to see how similar Obama's rise to prominence mirrors Hitler's."

It is downright Bush-like to INCLUDE votes in states where the candidates pledged not to participate and the votes are not sanctioned by the DNC, and to EXCLUDE caucus states that followed the rules.  Reminds me of Bush's addition of golf courses in calculating wetlands, or farmed salmon added to wild salmon in order to determine health of our rivers.  ENough already - nobody is fooled....  
And if you ignore the fact that the popular vote isn't how the nominee is selected AND that she said MI/FL wouldn't count AND that she doesn't take into account caucus states AND that winning a state in a primary has no relation to winning it November.  

It's time to leave the race with dignity and release supporters to work for Obama.
Yawn.
Hillary is counting votes from a primary ballot she agreed not to participate in--and Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot?  She obviously thinks the people of KY are idiots!  Please Mr. Obama, end this thing Tues!
-Susan
Nice, Senator Clinton!  So now it's "the pundits" fault that you have lost twice as many primaries & caucauses, have fewerer delegates, and trail in the popular vote (when you come back to the reality that the rest of us inhabit).  That's great spin too about "the pundits" trying to stop people from voting.  No one is trying to stop people from voting - people are just getting tired of goalposts being moved to fit the whim of someone who is more concerned with power and getting back to the White House.  
her vote total also leaves out the projected vote totals of caucus states
Hillary Clinton should change her name to Cleopatra... she is the queen of denial.
yeah, hillary, yeah...you tell 'em girl.

75,000 white people turned out to see next-president obama in portland today...but don't worry...none of them were working-class; they were all elitists. your base is holding. you ARE the most electable.

LOL
Hillary, its called the lottery. Look into it because you're chances of winning that are MUCH better.

Wait, you don't need to win that. You have millions to throw away on your campaign.

You're wrong, you don't have the popular vote. You're not going to get the votes from a state where Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot.

This is where your career starts to take a really bad turn. Political suicide.

Her popular vote argument is just wild. Even with Michigan (Clinton 300,000, Obama 0), which obviously cannot be counted, I think her claim is also based on excluding 4 caucus states because they do not tally exact vote totals. Fortunately the argument is not working, Obama has gotten what 30 superdelegates since North Carolina to her 2.

Obama/Clinton 08
I'm pretty sure that the popular vote claim is true only if you add FL and MI with 0 votes for Obama AND if you ignore the results of the 4 caucus states (IA, NV, ME, and WA) that don't report popular vote totals.  If you include estimates of those 4 states then even with ZERO votes for Obama in MI he still has a popular vote lead (which only goes to show how significant his lead is..).
I'm always amazed at Senator Clinton- every place is 'special' to her - from coast to coast, but esp. the last three or four - PA,IN, WV and now KY!  I mean, every state and every person should be special, but it can be overstated to the point of sounding fake.

She DOES NOT have the popular vote, and elsewhere she is trying to leave out the caucus vote - hey, we in WA state worked very hard and took all but one county for Barack - there's NO way she's going to discount us!  That would be quite contradictory - buttering up the KY voters and those in WV, saying EVERY vote counts and then turning around and saying, in a misleading way, that she has the popular vote, when this is based on hypotheticals (Florida and Michigan) AND by discounting the caucus states - where Barack won handily.  Were these not votes then?  What was all our effort for, in these states, I ask you?  It is impossible to respect her because she is so full of double-speak.  One MUST have a candidate who can be trusted.  She clearly cannot.
Hillary has had a legitimate opporunity to win the democratic nomination.  She has to accept her Fate.  Her Journey for this presidency will end soon. She needs to step aside and embrace Obama.  


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HRC is still trying to change the primary rules. Why are the so-called pundits letting her get away with it? Hopefully, Americans are smart enough to see that she's trying to steal the nomination away from Obama. She's starting to sound like some one who has lost her mind!
bla bla bla more spin more dilusion, We have had a dilusional president for the last 8 years, now it is time for a realistic one. Give it up hillary, just because the mouth breathers still twang their banjo for you doesn't change actual math.
The people that voted in Florida and Michigan did so for some reason and they desearve to be included in a process that recognizes their inalienable right to self determine.  

Agreed, it would not be fair to simply give Clinton the votes as cast but there have been plenty of opportunities to correct that and they have been squandered because Obama's camp knows they will fair better in the delegate and popular vote count if the states are eliminated.

The total membership of the Party has a right to  express their choice as to who the Party nominates.  Anything less is to tell two important states to vote Republican.  
Claiming to have more votes is just not right!
Including Michigan and Florida and excluding caucauses states is just not right senator Clinton!
Of course the total of delegates is going to decide anyway.
If she would stop lying,she would have done much better,even when the numbers are all over the news she still claims she is ahead ,I wonder if she believes herself.
I am sure all canadites believe they are the best canidate for the job,I was a Clinton supporte ,but anymore,to many lies.
Watching HRC's star die out is sadder than watching Emmitt Smith try to continue playing in a red uniform as his career wound down.
Why then do politicians have victory speeches and concession speeches before all the votes of any one state are counted?  The reason is that they look at their exit polls, combine them with other statistics, and come to a mathematical conclusion.
HRC, you gave your victory speech in Indiana way before all the votes were counted, didn't you?
RCP, MSM, DCW, CNN, AP, etc. show Obama up nearly 9% in the delegate count, super included, with just over 10% of the delegates left.
HRC, please stop trying to delegitimize Obama's win.
75.000 in oregon  1.000 in centacky.antios old bag.learn mathematic. you cant count.to be honest i dont want your husband close to white house no more stain dresses.


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