First thoughts: McCain's lobbyist purge
Posted: Monday, May 19, 2008 9:29 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain’s lobbyist purge: Remember in February, following Romney's departure from the race, the assumption was that McCain was going to have plenty of time to get his house in order while the Democrats kept fighting, perhaps up until the convention. Well, we're potentially days away from the Dems officially having a presumptive nominee, and McCain's still dealing with staff issues. The latest is the resignation of national finance co-chair Tom Loeffler, the fifth person who has left the campaign due to lobbyist ties. Loeffler was a key guy. How key? Just check out the McCain campaign’s reaction yesterday after Obama knocked McCain for his ties to lobbyists -- like Loeffler: “Just a few years ago when Barack Obama was beginning his career in politics, he was launching it at the home of William Ayers, an unrepentant domestic terrorist… If Barack Obama is going to make associations the issue, we look forward to the debate about Senator Obama's associations and what they say about his judgment and readiness to be commander in chief.” Whoa. One thing to keep an eye on this issue of severing ties with lobbyists is that McCain may get criticism from his own supporters for creating a policy that was doomed to cause him problems. Expect to see a lot more blind quotes reminding McCain that nobility on an issue doesn't deliver an electoral majority.
*** The battle to stereotype: Last week's debate between Obama and McCain over foreign policy presents dangers for both candidates. For Obama, he risks being painted as naïve, inexperienced, and weak. For McCain, he risks being painted as too Bush-like. Both campaigns believe they are going to win this debate. By the way, if the Democratic Party is going to start uniting around Obama as it began to do late last week during the spat with McCain and Bush, the Obama camp might want to make sure that everyone’s working off the same talking points. Here’s Joe Biden -- a potential Obama veep pick -- talking yesterday on ABC about Obama’s position on meeting with unsavory world leaders: “This is a fellow who I think shorthanded an answer that in fact was the wrong answer, in my view, saying I would within my first year, it implied he'd personally sit down with anybody who wanted to sit down with him. That's not what he meant. That's not what he has said since then for the last year or thereabout. And so I think he's fully capable of understanding of what's going." The “wrong answer”? RNC jumped all over that Biden comment. There are a lot of folks in the Dem Party (including the Clinton campaign) who believe Obama made policy based on a debate gaffe, because Obama's campaign at the time didn't want to concede they made a mistake on such a crucial question.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on Obama's possible declaration of victory and the latest shake-up in the McCain campaign.
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Bush backing away a bit? Speaking of last week’s foreign policy dust-up… NBC’s Richard Engel, in an interview with Bush that aired on TODAY, asked the president if he was referring to Obama when talking about appeasers in Israel. “You know, my policies haven't changed, but evidently the political calendar has,” Bush said. “My position, Richard, all along has been that if the Iranians verifiably suspend their enrichment -- which will be a key measure to stop them from gaining the know-how to build a weapon -- then they can come to the table, and the United States will be at the table.” Of course, the Bush White House was all about trumpeting the hit on Obama pre-speech. It was only after when the political fallout seemed to hurt Bush more than hurt Obama that the White House backed off.
*** Coming full circle: While it won’t exactly be an event declaring victory, Obama on Tuesday will mark obtaining a majority of pledged delegates in the state that started it all for him: Iowa. “We thought it was a terrific way to bring things full circle,” Obama said. It’s also a battleground state that Bush won in 2004. In fact, it’s worth noting that Iowa launched Obama, and New Hampshire vaulted McCain, and both states will once again be in play in the fall. But is Obama’s event on Tuesday an effort to begin putting away the Hawkeye State? Remember that McCain didn’t make an effort there in 2000, and barely did so eight years later. The Arizona senator is running ads in the state, but how long will he try to keep it in play? If Iowa is still competitive in October (i.e., low single digits), that might be a problem for Obama.
*** This week's First Read series? How about things you missed in politics because they had nothing to do with the presidential primaries... Start with Vito Fossella and lump him in with Larry Craig and Ted Stevens. The three, if the full barrage of the national political press corps had focused on their issues, all three would likely have made different decisions. Craig and Fossella probably would have resigned; Stevens probably would have retired, saving, potentially three seats that shouldn’t be in play -- two in the Senate and one in the House. But all three are in play now. Now, scandal alone isn't the reason why the GOP is on the brink of another disastrous downballot election cycle, but the decisions by these three lawmakers haven't helped things. That Idaho Senate seat should have an appointed incumbent Risch running for a full term; the GOP should be dealing with a fascinating primary to replace Stevens in Alaska; and if Susan Molinari's offspring were old enough to run for Congress, then Fossella might have already been forced out. Seriously, Alaska, Idaho, and Staten Island shouldn't be where the GOP is playing this fall.
*** Calendar watch: McCain's health records are supposed to come out this week.
*** Lots of super movement: Over the weekend, Obama picked up six superdelegates to Clinton’s three. Obama: Maryland's Greg Pecoraro; Kansas add-on Lt. Governor Mark Parkinson, Colorado add-on Federico Pena, Washington State Dem Party chairman Dwight Pelz, and two California add-ons -- land developer William Quay Hays and California fire fighters president Lou Paulson. Clinton got three California add-ons: head of the California Teachers Association Carolyn Doggett, former state assemblyman Dario Frommer, and wife of the Kern County Supervisor Dora Rubio. Also, NBC NEWS adjusted the pledged delegate count in Nevada -- one more for Obama and one less for Clinton for a 14-11 split there. NBC still has 18 delegates for Edwards. Here are the counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,602 to 1,444; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 298.5 to 279.5; TOTAL: Obama 1,900.5 to 1,723.5.
*** On the trail: Clinton is in Kentucky, where she has rallies in Maysville, Prestonsburg, Lexington, and Louisville (the final appearance will also include Bill and Chelsea Clinton); McCain speaks to the National Restaurant Association and then raises money there and in Savannah, GA; and Obama is in Montana, campaigning in Billings, on the Crow Reservation, and in Bozeman. Also, both Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton are in Kentucky.
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 169 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 246 days
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