Today's contests: The milestone?
Posted: Tuesday, May 20, 2008 9:16 AM by Mark Murray
The New York Times calls tonight -- when Obama will have won a majority of the pledged delegates -- a milestone for the Illinois senator. "For Mr. Obama, the situation is delicate. While eager to proceed to a general election match with Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee, Mr. Obama is also trying to bring the contest to a close in a way that allows him to win over Mrs. Clinton’s supporters and unify the party. For her part, Mrs. Clinton is making a counterargument that she is winning the popular vote if Florida and Michigan are counted, and that the party’s leaders should take that into consideration before deciding which candidate to support.”
“The results from the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on Tuesday will almost certainly allow Mr. Obama to reach a threshold that his campaign has long sought to establish as the critical measure of the will of the party: winning a majority of the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses. He also continues to gather support from the party leaders known as superdelegates that he still needs to secure the nomination, picking up five more endorsements on Monday."
The LA Times also says tonight is a "milestone." "To mark the moment, Obama will appear at a rally tonight not in one of the primary states, but in Iowa -- the state whose January caucuses brought Obama a win that galvanized his campaign. The choreographed setting is meant to suggest the near- inevitability of Obama's nomination, without claiming an outright triumph that would offend Clinton loyalists whose support is needed in November."
The Washington Post's Balz notes that whatever either side is saying, one thing's for sure: Both have declared an "effective cease-fire." As for Clinton, "while she presses forward, aides say she is determined neither to be pushed from the race prematurely nor to be seen as doing anything to damage Obama's prospects of winning in November if he emerges as the nominee. Her campaign team believes that is the best way to bring the party together as quickly as possible once the nomination contest is over.”
“Her advisers say that a major reason she does not want to be pressured out of the race is that she believes it will be easier to bring her supporters over to Obama once the primaries are over if they think she was able to finish the nomination battle on her own terms."
KENTUCKY: The Lexington Herald-Leader previews today’s contest. The paper also endorsed Obama.
Per the Boston Globe, “The state appears to be Hillary Clinton country in its demographics: 88 percent of residents are white, and they are poorer and less educated than the national average. Only registered Democrats can vote, a rule that fences out independents who have been less friendly to Clinton. And unlike in other states, there has not been a huge surge in new voters.”
OREGON: “The state's liberal leanings and collection of college towns bode well for Obama, but the eastern part of Oregon is more conservative and conducive to Clinton,” the Boston Globe says. “Oregon is the only state that votes entirely by mail, though the ballots won't be counted until today, and the turnout has been heaviest in expected Obama strongholds.”
The Portland Tribune throws a heaping bucket of cold water on two polls showing the race within five points. “But some political experts, including Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, were skeptical about those findings. ‘If the Clinton and Obama campaigns had numbers showing it was a four- or five-point race, they’d be down here through 8 p.m. Tuesday night,’ Hibbitts said. Instead, Hillary Clinton left Portland on Friday for Kentucky, and Obama left the state Sunday for Montana.”
What’s the difference? “It turns out the Suffolk poll sample included a different mix of people than Hibbitts, one of Oregon’s most respected pollsters. Ten percent of the people in Suffolk’s poll were independents, and they aren’t allowed to vote in Oregon primaries. Suffolk also included a smaller mix of younger voters and a larger share of older voters in its poll. Younger voters are solidly in Obama’s camp in Oregon, while Clinton leads among older voters. Hibbitts said Suffolk’s age mix would be more typical of a low-turnout election. But as the 75,000 people flocking to see Obama at Tom McCall Waterfront Park showed, this primary has energized Oregon Democrats. Turnout in Oregon’s Democratic primary could approach 70 percent, Hibbitts said. As a result, younger voters will make up a larger share of the electorate than usual.”
The Washington Post wonders whether exit polls (check that, survey data) on Oregon will be accurate or not. From everything we've learned, this survey data might actually be more accurate in the early waves because of the statistical consistency that the NEP can control for easier in a phone poll.
Voter rolls are up -- especially Democratic ones -- in Oregon. Democrats have doubled their advantage over Republicans in registered voters. The number of registered Democrats in Oregon has gone up 105,000 this year (through April). By comparison, GOP rolls have increased just 11,000 in the same time. Democrats had led Republicans in total registered voters by 87,000 voters.
