Does this include the 2 new SD today

Thank you

Why dont you show the results of the Gallup tracking poll where Obama leads Hillary by 16 points,  he is also ahead in every demographic except women over 50 where Hillary leads (51%) Check it out yourself . Of course if you post  it , Hillary and Geraldine Ferarro will say you are sexist.

The view from Hillaryland:

IF IF IF…

If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride.

If we were Republicans, I’d be the winner (but you’re not a Republican, are you?...);

If we counted the popular vote, I’d be the winner (not even remotely true since caucus states aren’t being counted and Puerto Rico doesn’t count in the GE and you were the only one on the ballot in MI, etc, etc, etc);

If we counted MI and FL, I’d be the winner (also not true – you’re behind in delegates);
If we only counted the big states, I’d be the winner (please note that IL and NC are also “big”);
If we only counted 2002 and 2004 swing states, I’d be the winner (the 2008 electoral map is changing!);
If we didn’t count educated voters, I’d be the winner;
If we didn’t count black voters, I’d be the winner;
If we used electoral college votes, I’d be the winner;
If we didn’t count cities, I’d be the winner;
If we didn’t count people under 50, I’d be the winner;
If we only counted Appalachia, I’d be the winner;
If we didn’t use DNC rules, I’d be the winner.

Note to Hillary: This is about DELEGATES and you’re not the winner.  

Go Oregon! – a shining example of people who vote with their brains.  We love you!

Oh Man!  He's on the home stretch now!  Look out!  Hillary . . .?  uh never mind . . .

Senator Obama's delegate lead (pledged and super) is growing by leaps and bounds. Unless the Democratic Party decides to torch its entire rulebook, Senator Obama will certainly attain the delegate count necessary to turn Senator Clinton's claim to the nomination into a bad memory.

I always did like Edwards but love him now.

Domenico, you and Chuck have been doing excellent things with these numbers... but I have to admit, I'm a little bit befuddled as to why you'd publish the cities, along with the states, from which these supers hail. Seems like, in this hotly contested debate, they could face pressures from the lunatic fringes of both the Obama and Clinton camps. I just am not certain it is the smartest thing in the world. But that's why you all have your jobs and I have mine, I suppose...

Thanks for this.  A great and clear update.

Magic Numbers:

23 delegates from securing majority of all current pledged delegates (No Florida or Michigan.)

67 delegates from securing majority of all pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are seated.  (Using current percentage of vote for Obama in Florida and applies "Uncommitted" vote to Obama in Michigan.)

No obvious mention that the race is statistically impossible for Clinton, but then you'll ask why Clinton supporters don't go over to Obama.  They don't because they've given her cash and haven't been told the truth by you or their leader.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/05/20/clinton-begs-superdelegates-to-allow-her-to-stay-in-the-race/

Guys-we need to lay off Hillary.  Senator Kennedy is gravely ill with a deadly tumor and we need to come together.  I hope Hillary acknowledges the inevitable so we can start to heal.  It's time and I believe Senator Kennedy would appreciate it.

Guys-we need to lay off Hillary.  Senator Kennedy is gravely ill with a deadly tumor and we need to come together.  I hope Hillary acknowledges the inevitable so we can start to heal.  It's time and I believe Senator Kennedy would appreciate it.

Wow - here comes the flood!  

Congratulations to Sen. Obama for running a top-rate campaign with dignity and integrity. He'll make a wonderful president.  


Obama 08/12

Inch by inch!!! Thank goodness!!

Down to 109.5 to reach the magic number!!! It's interesting how this group of 10 is made up of 6 women and 4 men.  How can Hillary supporters say that only HRC has the women's vote?  Obama is winning this primary--across gender lines, racial lines, generational lines--and finish lines!

A NEW MAGIC NUMBER:  8.  

Right now Obama is, by MSNBC count, 108 delegates away from actually securing the nomination (2,026).  Even if he wins only 100 of the more than 200 delegates remaining in these final 5 primaries, he would need only 8 more superdelegates to secure the nomination.  In fact, lopsided wins in SD and MT could give him the magic number with no more superdelegates.

Even MICHIGAN ALD FLA wouldn't change things much.  Even if the delegates there were seated in full (with Obama getting the 55 uncommited from Michigan -- note that this is the most Clinton-favoring scenario possible) Obama would only need about 45 more superdelegates to officially wrap things up.  He may get that many tomorrow.

God help America!  The GOP are masters at using thee media.  They didn't think they had a prayer in the fall until Clinton and Obama surfaced as frontrunners in the primary.  People voted their hearts and not their heads as we witnessed in this primary. The media helped to secure a nomination of a man that will lose in the fall.  The GOP knows that, and have again out maneuvered the Democratic party.  Politics is a game that some have forgotten how to play.  

Someone PLEASE explain how it is that this job interview (primary)for the most difficult, important job in the world has become about style rather than substance? Will someone tell me how the he** we can pick a candidate because he is full of "hope"??? We are faced with proven leadership or the "cool" guy "making history" Remember 2000 when our President was chosen for such shallow reasons? What a mess! Has anyone learned anything?

I did some math and here's how it looks.  I assume the following results:

Hillary wins Kentucky 60-40 an Puerto Rico 55-45
Obama wins Montana 52-48, SD 54-46 and Oregon 56-44.

That would put Obama at 2007 and Hillary at 1819 total delegates based on the current MSNBC count.

If you were to seat the Florida delegates as they voted (and give Obama the Edwards delegates) which is Hillary 105 Obama 80 (67+13 Edwards delegates), and give Hillary the 73 Michigan delegates she claims and Obama the remaining 55 you get a total of Obama 2142 delegates and Hillary 1997.

So Obama would need just 68 delegates to get to the "new" Clinton magic number of 2210 (from a recent Wolfson memo) to clinch the nomination while Clinton needs 213.  Unless the superdelegates break over 76% to Hillary there is no way she gets the nomination even if she gets Michigan and Florida seated as she wants.

So if I'm Obama, I say, ok, seat Michigan and Florida as they voted.  It will make no difference and not tick off two important states.

what should be the future for Hillary and her future senator, Chel Clinton?
If Hillary wants to be President in the future, she must not boycott the democratic party under Obama's leadership. Acting that way, will knock her out completely on the american political scene.
For what I have started forsee in the USA actually, without blacks and college students, it will be very difficult for Hillary in the future to be installed in Pensylvania avenue, washingtong, 2012.
However, if she supports the democratic party without accepting any post from Obama, whatever Obama or McCain, no matter of what happens during either Obama or McCain, she will be  the candidat to beat, then the way the economy and the war in Iraq  have put this country, none can predict that things are going suddenly change for a better tomorrow.
So, if that happens, that she wait for 2016 where she will be reaching some 71+big! not too bad, as much as McCain is 72 soon!
In fact, does Hillary want to waste the food for not being able to eat it?
To this inteerogation, yes she can, however her political ambition will stop right there!

Richard, I would agree with you except for one flaw in your logic.  If they seat the delegates as they voted then the Clinton camp will use the popular vote as the metric which means that it's entirely possible that she's not getting out of this race until the nomination.

Someone PLEASE explain how it is that this job interview (primary)for the most difficult, important job in the world has become about style rather than substance? Will someone tell me how the he** we can pick a candidate because he is full of "hope"??? We are faced with proven leadership or the "cool" guy "making history" Remember 2000 when our President was chosen for such shallow reasons? What a mess! Has anyone learned anything?
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI (Sent Tuesday, May 20, 2008 4:47 PM)

-------------------------------------------------

As members of the same party, all of the candidates in the primaries differed very little if at all on policies.  Much as some would like to think that Senator Clinton is more towards the center of the political spectrum than Senator Obama is, they're pretty much right next to each other on the issues.

When the substance is the same, all that's left for the comparison is the style.

Vey well said "Cherie Kansas City MO". It time to come together..."WE AS ONE". My thoughts and prayers are with Senator Ted Kennedy and his family. I also believe that he is ready for the party to unite. Everyone please take this into consideration. We already know where we've been, but we are waiting to see where we are going?  YES WE CAN!! (It's never to late to do good when you know you should)!!  

Dear Fellow Americans,

Our Great-grand Nation, the United States of America
is facing and will face very critical and substantial
"Challenges" in coming, months, years, and next
decade[s].

It is very essential as well as critical that we pick
our next
President keeping in mind the following criteria.


1. A candidate who has a  clear and candid  " Vision
and Mission" for our Nation.

2. A candidate with " Strong Character and Stable
Integrity" in-spite of adversity during our present
election process.

3. A candidate with sound  and sustained
"Presidential Temperament" and  " Judgment".

4. A candidate with little "Washington exposure"
and  "real connectedness with people and future
generation".

5. A candidate who "Inspires us up" rather  than
"Tears us Down".

6. A candidate not based on sexism,
racism,regionalism,and ageism and as well as “
attempts to bring us together “

In my professional, political and personal opinion,
the only candidate that meets the all above
characteristics and has shown constant and consistent
coolness, calmness, and connectedness {  PRESIDENTIAL
TEMPERAMENT } is Senator Barrack Obama.

As an independent registered voter since 1980. I voted
for Carter, voted for Reagan, voted for First  Bush,
and second Bush in 2000 and In the process last
interest in Washington politics and I stopped voting.
Getting disinterested and disgusted in our political
process and stopping voting that was a very bad
decision in any circumstance, particularly under
present circumstances.

This time we can not afford to stay on side lines and
let "Washington" stay the same.We can not afford our
Greatgreat Nation to become less than what we are,
what we were  and what we can be?

We need to send clear, careful and candid message to
the world and some time 24 hour partisan divisive
media,
that WE the American people will set the agenda for
our future and America will be back.

These partisan media outlets are trying to deprive,
dupe, and derail us and our Nation in getting it right
this time. We not let it happen this time or in
future.

Some of these partisan media and pundits are trying
their best
to deny us better future and continue focus our
weaknesses and generate bitter future for us and our
Greatgrand Nation. { Our Greatgrand Nations people
are persistently and constantly subjected to this
Psychological Terrorism" without common people’s
knowledge. The
common and regular  people do not have time to see
thru and sort thru this psychological terrorism
perpetuated
by some of these partisan media outlets. I find it
tragic, unfortunate, and sad [ Probably they do not
care about our Greatgrand Nation ].

We the Americans should not and would not to allow
Some these partisan media outlets psychologically
terrorized, traumatized and silence us this time or
any time in future.

I am sure that we will get it right this
time and elect Senator Obama our next President.

Let us remember that our Greatgrand is constituted of
family, friends,fellowships, faith, funds,foundation,
fun, and future with fairness and freedom and without
fear, favor, or failure .

We can not afford to lose any of above. Let us stand
up, be counted, save, build our Greatgrand Nation for
centuries to come and regain our world economic,
moral, and power status back.

God Bless our Great grand Nation and its diverse
people.

Our Greatgrand nation needs present and future
stability, security, safety,sustained progress and
restoration of our due status in this perilous Global
World at the all levels.

Yours sincerely,

COL.[retd] A.M.Khajawall  M.D.
Forensic Psychiatrist.
Disables American Veteran.
Las  Vegas Nevada.
Cell: 951-505-6975

One of the dumbest things Howard Wolfson has written was in the memo where he said that after tonight it would be premature for Obama to proclaim any kind of victory, as it would be an insult to the millions of voters in states still to hold primaries.

Forget that Obama hasn't and isn't proclaiming anything of the kind and focus on the millions ...

There aren't millions of people, let alone voters in the two remaining states - South Dakota and Montana. There aren't even a million voters, let alone Democratic voters.

This typifies why Hillary is not the nominee ... her campaign staff let her down time and again. They were incompetent and math-challenged. Penn should be sued for political malpractice (if one dime of my contributions to Obama ends up paying Penn ... aaargh!!!) and Wolfson and McAuliffe (Big Russ is not in Heaven drinking scotch - he's in his Barca-Lounger) should be ashamed of themselves.

Superdelegates Turned Down $1 Million Offer From Clinton Donor
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/19/superdelegates-turned-dow_n_102450.html

bobbi...

don't know what your referencing.  bush was put in office because they played the fear card and used the tough talk cowboy image that Americans used to love when watching John Wayne movies.

Obama is viable because he hasn't been exposed to the CRAP that Clinton and McCain ingest day in and day out.  They both use old school politics and people are fed up with it.  

Ted Kennedy said it best, Obama is looking ahead while the other two candidates continue to look in the rearview mirror.  

Funny you mention substance... tell me one policy that Hillary is pushing and I'll counter with Obamas position!  I'll start with the topic:  

education:  

Obama wants to improve the infrastructure for inner city schools and put more money into education.  Really thinks schooling should be just as good in poor areas as it is in affluent areas.  

The money he wants for education will be used to pay teachers that deserve it by getting certs, also by getting additional education.  He wants to get rid of "No Child Left Behind" and wants to give HS seniors the opportunity to continue their education by providing everyone a 4000 per year credit... not for free, but by giving back to America (by working in soup kitchens, homeless shelters, etc).  

Hillary???

Thanks for posting this info.  It's kind of hard to focus on delegate counts with the Kennedy news, but I appreciate all of the MSNBC's hard work in pulling this together.

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI

Wasn't the "cool guy making history" also elected in 1992? I seem to remember him playing the sax on Arsenio and discussing "boxers or briefs" on MTV (when it was relevant). Seems to me he did a pretty good job. If Obama is only as good as Clinton and: balances the budget, increases wages, lowers spending, improves education, and takes back the goverment from corporate interests...I'd be pretty happy.

Obama has plenty of substance beyong his "hope" message. Just go to his website and read his policy papers.

You know what is never talked about...the fact that possibly a lot of voters who would have voted for Obama stayed home in Michigan because him name was not even on the ballot.  How can anyone say that Michigan can be counted as is.  Strip them 1/2 of their delegates and divide them by 2.  DONE!

Go ahead and strip Florida's delegate in half agree to divide them as they voted but only if Hilary agrees to count the best estimate of the popular vote by ALL cacus states.  DONE!

I can believe I how I feel about Hilary and Bill these days.  I use to LOVE these two so much.  It hurts to see this happening.  If she think she can run again in 4 years after this and win, she better think twice.  I don't think Im alone in feeling this way

Someone PLEASE explain how it is that this job interview (primary)for the most difficult, important job in the world has become about style rather than substance? Will someone tell me how the he** we can pick a candidate because he is full of "hope"??? We are faced with proven leadership or the "cool" guy "making history" Remember 2000 when our President was chosen for such shallow reasons? What a mess! Has anyone learned anything?
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI
---------------------
Bobbi, Senator Obama is a great man of integrity, honesty, vision, good character, tremendous leadership skills and superb oratory skills.  He has accomplished a lot of legislation in the State Senate and also in the U.S. Senate.  He has authored a number bills which have become law.  He is the right candidate for this generation and generations to come; he has won the nomination fairly and squarely and remained above the fray of the dirty politics of yesteryear which the Clintons employed.  It is unfortunate, but Hilliary based most of her campaign on lies, fraud, and distortions.  The majority of Americans recognized this and said "NO", not now, not anymore!!"  Also, Hilliary has proven she cannot run anything; her campaign was chaotic, did not plan beyond Super Tuesday, ran out of money, had to "loan" her own campaign a total of $11+ million, is deeply in debt to the tune of $20+ Million and counting.  Hey, if she cannot lead her campaign and manage her campaign finances, how can she lead an entire nation??  She can't!!  Sorry, but, those are the facts.

Dear Sen Kennedy, you are a beacon of l8ight and hope for all of us who have followed the Kennedy brothers. May the God look over you and your family. I firmly believe, the whole US is praying for you. (I only wish this could be sent directly to you)

Holli,

I guess I have faith that the superdelegates will realize what a farce it would be to overrule the will of the voters of all 50 states and put Hillary over Obama.

As part of any agreement to seat the delegates, Obama could push for a guarantee that the vote totals from Michigan (where Obama wasn't on the ballot) would have to be publicly disregarded by Hillary Clinton and her staff.

Enough, already!  Hillary - go home baby.  It's over.  Love to have you as VP though!

Obama will be the nominee and americans will show their willingnees to try to shake things up just to take a chance on a totally unproven commodity; as Obama. REMEMBER "

compassionate comservitism"

This is a man who joined and stood in a church where the Rev Wright preached hate to solidify his southside of Chicago Political base and road it to the Senate. Now being a former Southside Chicago dem myself I would just say same old politics. Except he ran on being differant . He than proceded to throw Wright from the bus when that got politically expedient,\\He says hell bring people together except he has done no such thing in the senate. heck he was only one of 2 SEN who voted against the last supreme court nominee. Thats reaching across the aisle?
Obama is a charade and the american people should not get fooled by the hype.

a life long Dem who has voted in every election for every dem since 1968 every, local, state and fed election

dont take a chance on the unknown in a time of crisis

peace

One thing we complained about most with Bush is that he doesn't change course regardless of advice, common sense, facts, etc. Amazingly enough, Hillary is doing the same thing, I'm glad she's not going to be on the ticket.

Wasn't Hillary already in office once? Glad for the change Obama! Full steam ahead! Mr (soon to be elected 44th) president of the USA!

"Will someone tell me how the he** we can pick a candidate because he is full of "hope"??? We are faced with proven leadership or the "cool" guy "making history"
*********************

First of all, what "proven leadership" are you referring to? Do you mean the way Hillary turned a winning campaign (in which she had ALL the advantages from the beginning) into a $20 million debt? That leadership? Or how she just went along with the crowd instead of taking a stand against the war? That leadership? Obama, unlike Hillary, IS a true leader. And he's more than just hope - the man is incredibly gifted. He has a very thorough understanding of the issues, and the temperament to be able to maintain his cool under pressure. He has the winning formula that Hillary does not.

Hillary is past.  Her constant barrage of lies, evasions,mis-spoken facts have caused her untrustworthness to surface. She has proven that she does not have the leadership ability to effectively run any large organization effectively.  Maybe, after she studies her mistakes she will be a viable candidate in a few more years.

Hillary's campaign of RACE POLITICS has failed.

May Hillary & Bill R.I.P. and not be heard from again.
_____________________________________________________

Hillary is the only Democrat at this time who can beat McCain in the general election,  just look at the numbers.

To Bobbi in Eau Claire, I challenge your contention that Hillary is proven leadership.  Other than being abrasive and devisive, neither a trait of leadership, she only has a few more years in the senate.  She did not pass any significant legislation.  She opened an office to essentially find dirt on fellow senators and poisoned this chamber.  True leadership is the ability to inspire people (think Winston Churchill) not to micromanage them.  And I am more motivated by his nuanced and well thought out positions than by hope.  i.e.- HRC's statement she would freeze interest rates for 5 years would be a disaster.  

It's time for Hillary to give it up.  She is doing nothing but wasting time, her money (but who cares about that) and the time of the American people.  I think the choice has been made and Hillary needs to get back to what she does best.  Anyone know what that is??  Hillary, quit while you still have an ounce of dignity left.  

As it should be.....the best candidate continues to receive much more support & Supers. Hillary should not even be considered....lies, no leadership, no integrity, and a whiner about all losses, which are many.

Question: I'm just curious how the exit poll data are collected. When they report that in a given state, 80% of a given demographic voted for a certain candidate, how do they get that data? Aren't we supposed to have a secret ballot system? If it's just from polling certain people as they actually exit the polls, then that doesn't take into account the mail-in ballots. If they really can gather that data, from a bar code or something, doesn't that make you worry a little bit about your democratic freedoms?

MY deepest prayers for senator kennedy.
MY father died of a brain tumor.
Clearly healthcare should be for every citizen

What is going on in this country?  All of the news channels say the same thing.  Uneducated people vote for Clinton.  I am not highly educated but I can think for myself. Seems to me the media considers the country to be full of illiterates.  Well, we will see come November and further.

Why does she keep saying the caucus votes don't reflect the popular vote. The caucus I went to in Nevada counted heads, recorded the numbers and sent them in, just like if you went into a booth and pulled the lever. She won Nevada by the way, but just barely, the rural vote in Nevada went to Obama.

MSNBC can you please do a piece on superdelegates, pledge delegates...as it relates to the political process for those of us who don't understand the importance or the difference? Thanks!

I read the post above from "Kansas City" and want to know what in the world does Kennedy's tumor have to do with Clinton giving in and healing the Democratic Party.  OMG, what else can you blame on Hillary.  

A note to all you Obamabots, I see Obama is duking it out to win half the Democratic Party.  How many Republicans do you think he will win over?  Notta!

Hillary is one tough cookie; the Republicans respect that.

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