ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Day in Delegates: 1-1 so far

Posted: Wednesday, May 21, 2008 2:57 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton was first out of the gate this morning with a superdelegate, Ohio add-on Craig Bashein. (Bashein was named as an add-on on May 10; Obama got the other add-on, Dave Regan, when he was named then.)

Obama also got one, Rep. Joe Courtney of Connecticut.

NBC NEWS has also updated the delegate split in Oregon. Obama currently holds a 29-21 split there with two not yet allocated. Clinton won a 37-14 split out of Kentucky, according to the NBC NEWS count.

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1645 to 1502
SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 305.5 to 281.5
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,960.5 to 1,783.5

Obama has now won a majority of the pledged delegates even including Michigan and Florida (if you count the nine of Edwards Florida delegates, who have indicated they will vote for Obama. Without those Edwards delegates, Obama would need six more delegates to achieve a majority.)

The splits factored in mirror the "beauty contest" primaries in Michigan and Florida. They are how the Clinton campaign hopes they are eventually seated. Those splits would be: MI: Clinton 73-55; FL: Clinton 105-76 (w/ Edwards delegates, 67 without).

It is also important to note that neither of the two challenges to the DNC's rules to be heard at the May 31st Rules and Bylaws Committee call for splits as favorable to Clinton as the ones we have factored in. That doesn't mean the RBC might not seat the delegates in that way anyway, particularly if the Obama campaign agrees to it.

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The math is what it is.  Even if Hillary moves the delegate bar higher, she won't even meet her own standards.  The DNC should just give it all to her - because in the end it just won't matter.  Obama STILL wins - hands down.

In fact, if Obama loses the next three primaries, he STILL wins.

He STILL wins Hillary.
He STIll wins.


Obama 08/12
Hello ... Super-D's:  where are you???
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
If you want to know why Clinton has lost this election look no further then her mandatory health scam and the dimwits advising her.
*********************************
You know... lets STOP this voting from the heart and START USING YOUR HEADS !!

What real qulaifications does Sen. Obama have (specifically) other than "community organizer"??

I mean seriously folks! I know he is a good speaker, etc, etc... but C'mon!! Where's the beef!!  The actual substance behing his words??

Man, I thought Americans were dumb when they voted for Bush.. not once BUT twice.. but this one TAKES THE CAKE!!
clinto has some dirt on those other SUPERDELEGATES she has told them they will pay if they endorse!  According to Dick Morris!
Come on Supers! Come to your senses and cast your vote for Hillary! He can't win in Nov. A vote for obama now is 4 more years of our collective nightmare we call Republican Rule.
You DO NOT reward bad behavior. Barack is where he is because he followed the rules, and Hillary Huckabee did not ... so there can be no split of the delegates that even remotely favors this lying, deceitful person ... not to mention that BO wasn't even on the ballot.  I think the DNC should follow through and NOT seat the delegates, or if it does, then only seat HALF the delegates (50% penalty) and equally split them between BO and Hillary Huckabee.  We all just want her to GO AWAY!!!!!
An inconvenient truth -- math, it is what it is.  It is still possible for HRC to win the nomination, but it's not likely.

As of Wednesday, May 21, 2008

(omitting FL and MI)

There are only 298 available delegates (86 of which will be elected) remaining to get to 2026

BHO needs 72.5 or 24.3% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 243.5 or 81.7% of the total remaining delegates


IF you count FL (as is) and MI (59 vs 69 as last proposed)

There are still only 298 available delegates remaining to get to 2210

BHO needs 136.5 or 45.8% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 266.5 or 89.4% of the total remaining delegates



This time do something smart and vote for your wallet, vote for the economy, vote for the environment, vote for jobs.  

Vote for the smartest candidate in the race, a real leader (and no that's not McCain -- not by a long shot)

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.  
I think all of the headlines should be about the fact that our "presumptive nominee" has been getting his a** kicked since March! Look at the vote counts from last night! He was a heck-of-a-candidate, until we got to know more about him. Hillary doesn't have to "steal" anything. She deserves the nomination because SHE can WIN!!!!
Why is Hillary still running?  In my opinion, Hillary in not a Profile in Courage -- she's a Profile in Sociopathy.

Her pathology is why she’s still campaigning; this is why she will sabotage Obama, the Democratic Party or anyone who gets in her way.  This is why rules and math don’t matter.  This is why we don’t want her in the White House as president or VP.  This is why there is a NEW excuse every day as to why she is losing (excuse du jour?  Sexism!).

Below are just SOME of the behaviors that Hillary has exhibited -- I’m sure you can come up with plenty of examples to support each.

And to my fellow Dems and Hillary supporters, I’m asking, no begging, you to read this with an open mind and to consider this:  Hillary does NOT care about you.  You are simply a means to her end.  

Profile of the Sociopath (borrowed from the website: http://www.mcafee.cc/Bin/sb.html)

1. Glibness and Superficial Charm;
2. Manipulative and Conning;
3. Grandiose Sense of Self :  feels entitled to certain things as "their right";
4. Pathological Lying:  has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis. Can create, and get caught up in, a complex belief about their own powers and abilities;
5. Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt:  a deep seated rage, which is split off and repressed, is at their core. Does not see others around them as people, but only as targets and opportunities. The end always justifies the means and they let nothing stand in their way.
6. Shallow Emotions: when they show what seems to be warmth, joy, love and compassion it is more feigned than experienced and serves an ulterior motive;
7. Callousness/Lack of Empathy: unable to empathize with the pain of their victims, having only contempt for others' feelings of distress and readily taking advantage of them.
8. Poor Behavioral Controls/Impulsive Nature: believe they are all-powerful, all-knowing, entitled to every wish, no sense of personal boundaries, no concern for their impact on others;
9. Irresponsibility/Unreliability:  not concerned about wrecking others' lives and dreams. Oblivious or indifferent to the devastation they cause. Does not accept blame themselves, but blames others, even for acts they obviously committed. Does not perceive that anything is wrong with them;
10.  Extreme narcissism and grandiose:  may state readily that their goal is to rule the world.

btw, I have two twenty-something daughters who will never view Hillary as a role model -- she's simply too unethical, unlikeable and pathological.
I just watched Hillary! Uncensored. The documentary about Peter Paul vs The Clintons. If any rational Clinton supports would view this film would they continue to support her? The Republicans are waiting to bring this up should she get the nomination.

I felt sorry for Stan Lee who had his company ruined by the Clintons in the film. Hillary is a crook, a liar and basically evil woman. I can see why this is being banned with MSM. Anytime someone mentions Peter Paul's name on the News Networks, its quietly dismissed.

This woman will say and do anything to win the presidency. I wish anyone besides Fox News would bring this topic during shows like Hardball, Countdown or Situation Room?
PLease SD's - get off your scared wimpy a$$es!!

I've gotten two calls from the DNC wanting donations -I told them NO WAY...they'll get my money after Clinton concedes but not one minute sooner.  

One guy said he'd been hearing that alot lately...
maybe it'll get them moving if they understand no $$ until they endorse.  Endorse/nominate Hillary and no more of my money - the poor folk can cough it up for her.  And it makes WAY more sense for us anti Clinton folks to vote McCain - I mean what's the difference between them.  At least he'll be gone in 4 years!!
FR - Would you have expected more supers to landslide for Obama today, considering he locked in the majority of elected delegates? Or are they staying on the sidelines in deference to Clinton? Either way it is disappointing. Today the supers needed to make a big statement in my view that there is no way they can overturn the result of the voters in this process. Or are they waiting until the 31st when they can be certain he has clinched the majority?

We need to get started officially with Hillary on our side instead of yapping about imaginary popular votes.
Mississippi Democratic Party chairman Wayne Dowdy says he is committed to Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential race.

Dowdy is a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, and he had been holding off on deciding between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton
An inconvenient truth -- math, it is what it is.  It is still possible for HRC to win the nomination, but it's not likely.

As of Wednesday, May 21, 2008

(omitting FL and MI)

There are only 296 available delegates (86 of which will be elected) remaining to get to 2026

BHO needs 65.5 or 22.1% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 242.5 or 81.9% of the total remaining delegates


IF you count MI: Clinton 73-55; FL: Clinton 105-67

There are still only 296 available delegates remaining to get to 2210

BHO needs 127.5 or 43.1% of the total remaining delegates
HRC needs 248.5 or 84% of the total remaining delegates
What would be really instructive is a line graph showing delegates "accquired" since announcing candidacy.  All pledged, supers, etc.

In your delegate tracking center you must have a date on which each super or add on committed.  Together with the primary/caucus results this would illustrate your argument about effect of the 11-straight in February.  

You could even do a couple of Florida/Michigan variants.

And to clear up the popular vote debate you could show best/unbiased estimates of that too.
how is it that obama's delegate margin in oregon not greater than that if he won the state by 18 points!? Shouldn't his delegate lead be a lot greater than a 29-21 split??
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI,

Are you clairvoyant?? You know something the rest of America doesn't.

He CAN win in November, and probably has a far greater chance than Sen. Clinton. Get over it.
Bobbi from Eau Claire -

When you bring up Farrakhan at debates and you talk about hard working white people as your base - he will likely not get the votes of older white uneducated people, 20% of which say race was important in their decision making process.

AS soon as she stops lying about popular votes, and stops lying about being in this race we will have her on our side and we will win them over -
Joe Courtney succumbed to the Chris Dodd mentality... ride the coat-tails of the guy w/ more pledged delegates in hopes of gaining a high profile position in the Cabinet...

Chris Dodd & Claire McCaskill:  the Senate's biggest opportunists!  
(But guess what, these losers aren't going anywhere... their states have Republican governors who would appoint a Republican to fill their seats... HAHAHAHA... they're staying put HAHA)
This is getting really tired!

Chuck Pass this on and please post this :

Dear Dan & Keith;



You guys are the BEST news shows on TV.  I am pleading with you:  Please do your journalistic duty and call Clinton out on her tactics?  Would one of you do a montage of all the things she’s said about Obama during this campaign so that the public can see WHY she’s acting this way?  I don’t know about you but the whole thing seems PERSONAL and NOT about voters or Democracy!  I am honestly scared of what she will do to become president, and that it will ultimately gift-wrap the prize for McCain in November.  The people need to be reminded of where she is coming from.  Keith, you and Dan am sure do not want to go back to a time where you couldn’t question power, do you?  You guys are poised for a genuine “Edward R. Murrow” moment against what is just wrong, dishonest and exploits the WORST in our prejudices!  That “Elephant” in the room is HRC’s campaign tactics.



I didn’t always dislike her.  In the beginning I would have been happy with either one of them.  She turned me off with how she has been running things.

The DNC needs a little nudge from the press the diffuse the hostage situation that she effectively has the country in:  Pick me or else . . .

***Hey feeling better in ne!!

I actually recieved a letter from the DNC asking for donations and I sent it back with a HUGE NO WAY!!
NOT UNTIL ALL VOTES ARE COUNTED IN MI and FL!  
Pa voter - the same question can be asked of Clinton. What real qualifications does she have to be president?

(sound of crickets)

Oh, right, she bungled her first attempt at universal health care. But she has managed to somehow convince 60 percent of the nation she's dishonest without ever really doing anything. Now that's a trick.
Pa Voter -- considering Obama gets more of the educated votes, what does that say about who is voting with their heads? And considering Obama gets more of the votes from people who beliee in hope and change, what does that say about people that are voting with their hearts?
THATS RIGHT - OBAMA WINS MATTER WHAT.No matter what magical numbers Hillary tries to use, she lost and needs to get over herself.
To the Undeclared/Undecided Super Delegates:
Does your silence signify your intention to overturn the will of the people and hand Senator Clinton a back-door victory?

I urge you to come forward now and declare for Senator Obama.

Let the healing begin and the good times roll!

I'm a white, male, 50-something, registered republican who WILL VOTE for Senator Obama in November.  CHANGE and GOOD WILL are more appealing to me than 4/8 more years of the same, tired, failed policies than Senator McCain has embraced.
Pa voter-

If you are curious about Obama's qualities:

1. They are real and don't involve sniper fire
2. More years in public office than Hillary Clinton
3. Holds a professorship in constitutional law
4. Has produced meaningful legislation and not meaningless bills naming Post Offices
5. Knows the difference between insurgents and Shia and Sunni
6. Does know something about economics
7. Can count using real math
You know, it is sad the way Mrs. Clinton is not backing Sen Obama.  Obama has been nothing but gracious, even last nite giving her accolades. I really have lost a lot of respect for her.If it were not for her race bating, this race would have been over a long time ago.  I live in NYC, and voted for her for the Senate.  I certainly will think twice about voting for again.  She needs to stand up and get her and her racist friends to back Obama instead of ruining the Democratic party.  She is a trip.
It was great seeing Ron Reagan on MSNBC last nite -- he's been sorely missed and is SUCH a breath of fresh air!  He is disarming, funny, honest and forthright -- not your usual pundit or commentator.

I'm not sure if it was Ron or someone else on After Hours but last nite's best line?  

If Appalachia was a country then Hillary could be president (or words to that effect).

Isn't obvious to everyone that Obama can get middle-class, working class white voters?  This is just a racist slam perpetuated by the Clinton campaign. And she's not being negative?  please.

Super D's:  get off your butts NOW. Hillary is destroying the party. There's no need to wait until May 31 -- Hillary has not earned a grace period because she has no grace.

55 year old white woman with a brain who votes.

I agree with you, sara,mesa,az.   Hillary is experiencing a form of pathology that will probably lead to her polical demise.

Obama '08
The superdelegates need to move and endorse Obama NOW!

If they don't we will continue having Hillary followiong Obama all over the country dogging him so that he cannot give his full attention to McCain and the general election. She reminds me of a small yappy dog following Obama around nipping at his heels while he is doing his best to try and save the ship. He is too nice to give her a swift kick over the side himself. The superdelegates need to wrap a life jacket around her and toss her over the side of the ship.
obamma IS WHERE HE IS BECAUSE HE KNOWS ALL THE BUZZ WORDS AND YOU FOLKS LISTEN LIKE HE IS THE SECOUND COMING BEWARE OF wolves in sheeps skins HE WILL SAY ANYTHING TO WHITE PEOPLE TO GET ELECTED EVEN THROW HIS PASTOR UNDER A BUS
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI

Enough already!  As the math has it, there is no possible way for Hilliary to win, other than stealing it, so now what?

I am so fed up with the democrat bashing.  It seems to me if anything was driven in the ditch, it was her campaign and no one has asked her to take responsibility for it.  

Obama has made it this far, despite his odds and now he is blamed for his success?  I THINK NOT!  He did what it took to get to this point and REMEMBER...HE EARNED EVERYTHING HE HAS, NO ONE GAVE HIM NOTHING!

SO, THE WAY I SEE IT, NOVEMBER WILL COME SO YOU AND OTHER OBAMA HATERS MUST DECIDE ARE YOU WILLING TO VOTE AGAINST YOUR ECONOMIC INTERESTS OR TO SUPPORT A DEMOCRAT THIS YEAR.

With Obama as president the world wins, this includes the CLinton voices, but if McCain gets it...WE ALL LOSE.  SO ENOUGH!  
Latest Zogby poll shows Obama beating McCain by 8 and clobbering HRC by 26.  so much for the "electability" argument posed by Hillary and her seething band of  man-haters and ignorant racists.  (Sorry, but there are no racists who are not ignorant.)

It's time for the Super-D's to put the hammer down and muzzle the Clintons.
I'm just waiting for Obama to steal Hillary "Republican" Clinton's thunder from Kentucky by announcing another 8 Edward's pledged delegates endorsing him.  Still the Wicked Witch of the East can't win by just getting a tie in new declared supers.

Unlike the class act that Barack is the "Bag Lady" will bankrupt the party in her pathetic attempt to steal away Obama's rightfully earned primary nomination victory.

Go Obama 08/12!
Pa Voter....What is it you think you know about Barack Obama that's millions of us don't know.  

Evidently you are the dumb one.  If you had been reading the new or looking at the news you would see that the people that Barack Obama attracts the most are the educated one's.

IT's people like you that Hillary attracts - so what does that say about you.  You are silly - please stop the slandering..join us or go to the republican party..Hillary has lost and the only thing...idiots like you do ..is present alot of hot air to other idiots.   BYE - BYE
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI (Sent Wednesday, May 21, 2008 3:17 PM): She deserves the nomination because SHE can WIN!!!!


Bobbi: You say Clinton can win. Can you explain then  why Hillary can't beat Obama. If she can't beat Obama who has been kind to her and even lately praising her how do you expect her to win against McCain and the Republicans who will eat her up and spit her out every day for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
forget the math, forget the delegates, Hillary is in understudy mode. She is trying to shine in the rehersals. She is waiting to see if something happens to the lead actor in the play before opening night so she can substitute and take the stage. It is the only thing that makes sense.
You DO NOT reward bad behavior. Barack is where he is because he followed the rules, and Hillary Huckabee did not .

I agree with you Janice, but the sad/scary fact is that they may just reward that bad behavior.  I for one am now officially over trying to tiptoe around the Clinton supporters and be nice.  They can threaten all they want.  If Billary does somehow get the nom., you can bet I and probably many other Obama supporters would never support her.  They threaten, scream sexism, blah blah blah, but they forget they would need us if she does get the nom.  Turn about is fair play I guess, immature, but I am so over it!
DIVIDED WE STAND RACE AGE GENDER thanks OBAMMA for uniting us as only GEORGE BUSH CAN.
It's amazing how supporters of HRC simply ignore the facts of the game.  HRC is in the position she's in because she did not have a post Super Tuesday strategy.  Period.  The fact that she has one now is beside the point.  Sen. Obama weathered the Rev. Wright storm and while I'm sure it's coming back up in the general, he has shown that he is still holding on to his key constituency groups.  No matter how you slice it, even if BO allows the FL and MI votes to stand (which I personally would give FL but demand a more equitable split in MI) he will still be ahead.  Geroge Stephanapoulos put it this way, "the Democratic party has never denied the nomination to the person who won the most pledged delegates.  And the superdelegates are not going to do that either."  Game. Set. Match.
Thanks for the update Domenico.  Again, I appreciate all the extra detail you're including so we can see when (or if) this might end.

Guess we're not getting a super landslide today after all.  Hmmm.
Why would anyone want for a president one who would blatenly lie about sniper fire, lie about leading in the popular vote and lie about her reasons for giving Bush the OK to invade Iraq?  
Too close to call. Let the convention nominate whoever is best to win the general election. BHO cannot win the GE. Dems, don't go down that path. We can't take another 4 years. Of course the profiteers would love it.  

There is much speculation about what Senator Clinton is thinking.

Some are now proffering exotic conspiracy theories not worth considering here or anywhere else for that matter.  But they are out there in ever more convoluted, poisonous, manifestation...

The short of this American political oddity is that nothing Hillary Clinton is doing right now is wise, honest, moral, or intelligent.  

Nor is anything she is doing now contributive to the Democratic Party, its ideals, history and hopes.

Nothing she is doing is good for America.

Nothing she is doing is remotely patriotic.

We don't know what she is thinking, but now we know what she is.
PA voter.  Hillary has experience in the WH.  That I'll give her.  But that's it.  And we all see that experience alone is not doing anything for this country.  THe WH is full of people with experience.
What about integrity, morals, honesty, trustworthiness.  She fails at these.  These things are what makes the difference. We are voting for Obama with our heads and not our allegiance or prejudices or hatred like the Hillary people are doing.
KENN


Learn to type.  And it's spelled Obama.  Seriously, people, if you are going to post put some thought into it.  Check your spelling and grammer.  Unless you happen to be a Clinton supporter, then I suppose it's to be expect.
Hillary lost me completely with the Bosnia lie. Before that, I would have voted for either.  (Admittedly, I was pretty much rooting for Obama because of Bill's idiotic comments.)

I will say, however, that I will vote for Hillary if she pulls this off by nothing short of a miracle (X 100).  I would never vote Republican.  No self respecting person that claims to care about this country would vote Republican in my opinion.  Women would be betraying all other women by voting for McCain.  He will end our reproductive rights with his supreme court appointments.  

Can you actually tell me you could live with that?
Senator and Michelle Obama ( with their adorable daughters)  made a wonderful appearance in Des Moines last evening. His speech was outstanding and right-on-the-mark.  I do believe that Senator Obama is far too gracious to his die-hard opponant Hillary Clinton. She has proven that she is hard working and tenacious, however, enough is enough. It is very apparent that she cannot win and at this point she is becoming no more than an annoying distraction.
I applaud her efforts but feel strongly that she should cut her losses and offer support to the man who will become the democratic nominee. I say we unite the party and get on with the business of electing a man who stands for the well deserved change our country needs and deserves.
Hey PA Voter -- you obviously know nothing about communinty organizing. The reason Obama gets crowds of 75,000, donation levels that exceed Hillary's by more than $10M a MONTH, and why caucus states are overwhelming pro-Obama is because his campaign is utilizing community organizing on a national scale. Community organizing is about finding shared commonalities, building bridges across race and class lines and providing the leadership and encouragement to make goal-achievement a reality. True political leadership IS commuinity organizing, not slick. legal games where the adversarial relationship is the means for achieving ends that are self-aggrtandizing and short-term, sugar-tit, fixes.
The superdelegates need to get it together and support Obama now to put an end to Hillary and Bill Clinton's destruction of the party.

Hillary's racial comments are absolutely in play in places like W. Va. and Kentucky.  She is damaging the party and making sure she points out her racist supporters in front of the entire world.

She needs to be punished by the party, not helped by allowing her to go around saying things that make the world look less favorably on us than they already do.  Not to mention she has mislead those supporters to whom she has played the race card.  She cannot win and she has pushed those voters in W. Va. Kentucky and Pa. toward the Republicans.


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