First thoughts: Shiny object time
Posted: Thursday, May 22, 2008 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Shiny object time: You’ve got to hand it to Team McCain. By leaking out word that the candidate will be hosting three potential veep running mates (Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, and Mitt Romney) at his ranch this weekend, the campaign has given the press corps a nice distraction story to focus on at a time when he'll have just released details of his medical records on Friday, which just happens to mark the beginning of the Memorial Day weekend. There are veep short lists, and then there are short lists serving as shiny objects. And this weekend meeting appears to fall into the "shiny object" column. That said, all three men would bring some strengths and weaknesses to a McCain ticket. Crist is a centrist governor who would lock down Florida for the GOP, but he has been governor for just a year and a half and he’s unmarried. Jindal has served even less time as governor -- remember that McCain’s veep pick will receive extra scrutiny due to his age -- but he brings diversity as well as incredible smarts (Rhodes Scholar). Yet is Jindal TOO young, meaning that every time Jindal stands next to McCain, it's a reminder of McCain's elder status? McCain, at 71, is nearly twice Jindal's age, who turns 37 on June 10. And Romney, as we’ve mentioned before, would help McCain both on the economy and in Michigan, but his campaign skills proved to be weaker than we all expected. Speaking of veep stuff, the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder curtain-raises the Jim Johnson vetting process on behalf of Obama which may have started a lot sooner than folks think.
*** On the defensive: Obama's finding himself more and more on the defensive on this issue of talking with rogue leaders. The campaign's surrogates have slowly been walking back his initial declarations and the RNC and McCain folks have been pouncing hard on him. The issue is one the Obama campaign still likes -- because it allows them to tie McCain to Bush’s foreign policy -- but it will have to deal with a couple of challenges today. The first is a critical AP article: “Obama gets cheers at his rallies when he declares there is nothing to fear, and potentially much to gain, from talking to enemies as well as friends. But U.S. diplomacy is not that simple and neither is his position.” The other is a New York Times op-ed noting that Kennedy’s meeting with Khrushchev in ’61 didn’t turn out all that well. Still, McCain has his own challenge that hasn’t received that much scrutiny: How would the course he proposes -- not to mention still trying to win the war in Iraq -- change Iran’s and North Korea’s behavior? This really is a unique issue debate because both campaigns believe they can win the argument. Right now, judging by body language alone, McCain appears to be winning it right now.
*** A Black eye? Here’s another challenge for McCain: How much of a distraction does Charlie Black (and potentially Rick Davis) present the campaign these days now that the DNC and outside groups like MoveOn want to make their lobbying pasts a major issue. This has to be a frustrating issue for the McCain camp, because most voters likely don't care. But it's the type of story the media loves to cover because it can look like such rich terrain. Just check out today's Washington Post story on Black's past clients. A reasonable explanation of Black's decision to represent these folks can be presented. But what's reasonable when the lens is the presidential campaign? Something Obama's learning with his rogue states comments and something the McCain campaign is experiencing right now when it comes to the staff's ties to the business side of Washington.
*** How do his members feel about this? AFSCME’s Gerald McEntee has been one of Clinton’s biggest supporters this presidential cycle, and he’s one of Washington biggest political players? But is his union’s reputation going to suffer if Obama wins the nomination -- and then the presidency? Check out these comments in today’s Washington Post: "[McEntee] said in a telephone interview that Clinton has been the superior candidate over the past few months and that Obama's losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky could haunt the party in November. ‘Are we going to pick a candidate that will literally walk almost lame into the Democratic National Convention?’ he asked.” How is McEntee going to wriggle out of these comments? Remember, if Obama wins, this will be the second straight presidential election McEntee picked the wrong horse. McEntee has been instrumental in propping up Clinton. Whether it's organizing unofficial events in Florida or helping to direct money to that 527, McEntee might be the single most important endorser in Clinton's camp.
*** Here comes the Wolfson-Singer call: A new round of Quinnipiac polls shows Clinton to perform better against McCain in the battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In Florida, it’s Clinton 48%, McCain 41%; McCain 45%, Obama 41%. In Ohio, it’s Clinton 48%, McCain 41%; McCain 44%, Obama 40%. And in Pennsylvania, it’s Clinton 50%, McCain 37%; Obama 46%, McCain 40%. No doubt Clinton looks stronger in these states, but she can’t use these polls to argue that Obama can’t win them. Clinton has to prove that he’s unelectable, not less electable, and that's the frustration the Clinton camp must feel. Why is that the standard? Many Superdelegates aren't going to be comfortable denying Obama the nomination without definitive proof he CAN'T win. Of course, the Obama campaign is probably wishing that Quinnipiac picked three different battleground states to poll (like Wisconsin or Colorado or even Michigan)…
*** The Woman In Red: While those Quinnipiac polls boost Clinton’s electability claims, does her fundraising report suggest the opposite? Once again, Clinton’s monthly FEC report shows her campaign to be in the red. Per the New York Times, she has a little over $6 million in the bank (compared to Obama’s $38 million), but has campaign debts of $9.5 million, which is on top of the $11.4 million she has loaned her campaign. If Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, just how much money would she have to run TV ads between now and the Democratic convention?
*** The delegate count: Obama picked up two superdelegates yesterday to Clinton’s one. Obama got Mississippi Dem Party Chair Wayne Dowdy (a former congressman) and current congressman Joe Courtney (CT). Clinton was first out of the gate yesterday with a super: Ohio add-on Craig Bashein. The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1645 to 1502; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 306.5 to 281.5; EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,961.5 to 1,783.5.
*** On the trail: Clinton is in the Senate attending Gen. David Petraeus’ nomination hearing at the Armed Services Committee; McCain spends his day in California, hitting the San Jose area and Stockton, where he holds a rally and raises money; and Obama returns briefly to Capitol Hill and then resumes campaigning in Florida, speaking to the B'nai Torah congregation in Boca Raton in the afternoon and then raising money in Miami in the evening. Also: A very interesting McCain-Ellen DeGeneres interview airs this morning (for more on that, see below).
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