First Thoughts: All about McCain
Posted: Friday, May 23, 2008 9:28 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** All about McCain: For the first time in quite a while -- and, as it just so happens, the day before the Memorial Day weekend -- the political world today focuses squarely on McCain, whether it's the release of his medical records, the veep possibilities who head to Arizona, or yesterday's denunciation of pastors John Hagee and Rod Parsley. Here’s the drill for the medical records, as the New York Times mentioned yesterday: The campaign is allowing a small pool of reporters (including NBC) access to McCain’s medical records from 10:00 am to 1:00 pm ET in a conference room at the Copper Wind Resort in Phoenix. The reporters are allowed to take notes but not remove or photocopy the records. Then, at 2:00 pm ET, the campaign will host a conference call with McCain’s doctors. Meanwhile, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann says the guest list for the couples coming to McCain's Sedona, AZ cabin this weekend include three potential vice presidential picks: Bobby Jindal, Charlie Crist, and Mitt Romney. Also expected to attend, per reports, are former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman (a dark horse veep possibility), Sam Brownback, FedEx chief Fred Smith (a possible veep candidate as well), and Sen. Lindsay Graham. By the way, don't fret Huckabee and Ridge veep fans; they, too, were invited this weekend but couldn't make it. The weekend will include three days of BBQing and likely some outdoor festivities like fishing and hunting. McCain will be joined by his wife and some of his children.Here's what we really want from reporters staking these folks out in Sedona, find some local to discuss which veep candidate has the ideal energy levels to converge with the area's famous vortexes.
*** An early look: The AP got an early look at McCain’s health records. “Three-time melanoma survivor John McCain appears cancer-free, has a strong heart and is in otherwise general good health, according to eight years of medical records.” More: “The details of McCain's health are contained in 1,173 pages of medical documents spanning 2000 to 2008 that his campaign made available to the AP to make the case that he's healthy enough to serve as president, as well as to counter the notion that he's too old. The Arizona senator will turn 72 in August and would be the oldest elected president.”
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on the possibility of an Obama and Clinton "dream ticket" and McCain's divorce from the Rev. John Hagee.
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Playing hardball: Speaking of McCain, he’s clearly is not a fan of Obama. Just take yesterday, for example. When Obama gave McCain a little push over Jim Webb's GI bill -- “I can't understand why he would line up behind the President in his opposition to this GI bill” -- McCain fired a political bazooka by issuing this statement: "I take a backseat to no one in my affection, respect and devotion to veterans. And I will not accept from Senator Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did." Wow, "responsibility" is a VERY strong word. Then in announcing that he was denouncing Hagee, McCain made sure to remind everyone of Rev. Wright. “Hagee was not and is not my pastor or spiritual advisor, and I did not attend his church for twenty years,” he said in a statement. And then at a rally in Stockton, CA, the Arizona senator said this about Obama: "For a young man with very little experience, he's done very well. So I appreciate -- with his very, very great lack of experience and knowledge of the issues -- he's been very successful." Whoa, this was all yesterday. Has Obama gotten under McCain's skin? McCain has reserved some of his most sarcastic barbs for the Illinois senator. Forget the shots he enjoyed taking at Romney during the primary; that was beanbag. His disdain for Obama is crystal clear every day on the trail. In politics as in sports, the toughest and meanest guy normally wins. But is this a longer-term problem? After all, the image that McCain built from his 2000 presidential bid was the insurgent, happy warrior who was wronged by Bush in South Carolina and not afraid to buck his party. Then again, this could be part of a strategy to get under Obama's skin and get the normally congenial Obama to get into the sandbox and get mean as well. And if McCain can wear away at Obama's likeability, then he may help turn off indie voters from being tempted to support the Dem senator in the fall.
*** Obama courting the Jewish vote: Lost in the craziness of yesterday’s multiple back-and-forths between Obama and McCain was Obama's speech to Jews in South Florida. He faced some tough questions (which the Miami Herald notes might have been influenced by the local ads the Republican Jewish Coalition took out) and he seemed to handle them fairly well. Clearly, the Jewish vote is being seen as more critical than some would have predicted a year ago. Just look at how fast McCain dropped Rev. Hagee, once the pastor was seen as insulting Jews. McCain didn't drop him over the remarks on Catholics, but when it appeared McCain would lose a wedge issue against Obama with a key constituency in Florida, McCain dropped him like a hot latke. Obama's got a LONG way to go with Jews. The conspiracy theories are rampant in the Jewish community as yesterday's front page New York Times story showed. And one speech in front of one Jewish group isn't going to be enough. Can Obama afford to lose a third of the Jewish vote and still win an electoral majority? Some in Florida tell us he can make up the lost Jewish vote but it certainly makes things tough and if enough Jews crossover in Ohio and Pennsylvania and even Nevada, it could make the map that much tougher for Obama.
*** Audition time: But forget BBQs and short lists, the real tests for potential veep candidates are what they do in the public square. Jim Webb yesterday showed off his ability to take on McCain on veterans issues and win, and Joe Biden has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal defending Obama from McCain's attacks. What should we look for on the GOP side? Romney and Tom Ridge have done a lot of campaigning on McCain's behalf. Will we see real auditions to test some other folks? Also remember: No story exemplifies the "silly season" more than veep speculation -- from "breaking news" speculation on Obama-Clinton to chatter about Bloomberg matching up with, well, everybody. Some of this may eventually turn out to be true, but it's probably not now. And remember, the source list on veep chatter grows exponentially because sources have agendas of their own now, like getting their clients mentioned in the Washington Post in short lists.
*** Hillary as Al Gore? So why is Clinton fighting so hard not only to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations -- but also on her campaign’s terms? Is it all about trying to make sure she becomes Obama’s veep? Or is it a way to extend the nomination fight as long as possible? Or does she see it simply as her only path to securing the Democratic nomination (which can’t be the case, since she needs superdelegates, not Florida and Michigan, to push her past Obama)? TPM’s Josh Marshall offers another opinion: It’s about establishing the argument that the nomination was stolen from her. “What she's doing is not securing her the nomination,” he writes. “Rather, she's gunning up a lot of her supporters to believe that the nomination was stolen from her -- a belief many won't soon abandon.” To put it simply, is she trying to transform into Al Gore, circa 2001-2003? Gore was able to keep a core constituency of folks because of the belief he was wronged. Clinton might want this same constituency to follow her -- no matter who ends up the nominee because it makes her a potentially powerful political player, particularly if she can start delivering her vote for others.
*** Mo’ money, mo’ problems: All the speculation about whether or not Clinton wants to be Obama’s veep -- including Time’s report that Bill is pushing for it -- has ignored this point: Hillary becoming vice president would be a financial hit on the Clintons. Why? Because Bill Clinton would most likely have to give up all of his paid speeches, as well as many of his other business deals. Of course, this would have been the case had Clinton become president, but that sacrifice would have been worth it to Bill. Would the sacrifice be just as worth it on the veep front? With Obama promising an overly ethical and transparent White House, can his vice president’s spouse be giving paid speeches and entering business partnerships with anyone that might have business before the US government? Perhaps the easiest way out for Obama is for Jim Johnson to ask the Clintons to submit to a thorough vetting on the financial front, including seeing the list of the library donors and restricting Bill's ability to make the living he's been making the last eight years. Of course, with the Clintons making $109 million since leaving the White House, they can survive if Bill is giving fewer paid speeches.
*** The delegate count: Clinton yesterday got Guam Party Chair Pilar Lujan. Since Kentucky/Oregon now it's 2-2 in superdelegates, with 208 who remain undeclared. The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,647 to 1,502; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 306.5 to 282.5; EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,963.5 to 1,784.5
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in South Dakota; McCain is down in Arizona; and Obama remains in Florida, attending a Cuban Independence Day celebration in Miami and holding a rally in Broward County. Also, Bill Clinton stumps in Montana.
Countdown to Puerto Rico: 9 days
Countdown to Montana, South Dakota: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 165 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 242 days
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