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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Sestak: 'Cold, brutal facts of reality'

Posted: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 10:54 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Former Admiral and Pennsylvania congressman Joe Sestak, an early and ardent supporter of Clinton’s, said on MSNBC he’d like to see the New York senator be the nominee, but he added, “There are the cold, brutal facts of reality.”

He then pivoted, however, in the same breath to Clinton’s electability argument on the popular vote and her leading McCain (by wider margins than Obama) in polling in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida (Obama does not lead in Florida, per recent Quinnipiac polls). He brought up Puerto Rico and that potentially 450,000 to 500,000 could come out to vote there. And that even though the race is about delegates, if Clinton could win the popular vote, then perhaps, superdelegates would get behind her as the nominee -- though, of course, that would have to be by overwhelming margins.

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This guy's in denial, along with the Clintons.
It is not about popular votes!!!! It's about delegates.!!!

The tragic piece MSNBC ran on Marine Sargeant German, who was terribly burned over 75% of his body, his horrific disfigurment, the excrutiatingly constant pain he endured, and his sad death this April, as a result of his injuries sustained in Iraq, should give all the Hillary supporters threatening to vote for McCain in November a moment of pause.

If that does'nt do it for you, imagine he was white. If that does'nt do it for you, imagine he was your blood. If that does'nt do it for you, imagine he was you.
Its just mind boggling how supporters of a candidate with negatives at 54 and of whom 60 percent of all voters think is dishonest fall back on electability arguments. There's some kool-aide being passed around, alright.
More divisive talk in a race that has already gone on too long. The rules say the race is about delegates, not the popular vote, not the electoral college, not random general election polls. I'm tired of the Clintons and their surrogates seeking to move the goal posts. Their spin is so self-serving.

Oh, how I wish the DNC were stronger leaders. If the Democratic nominee fails in November, their lack of leadership will be one reason as to why.
This guy sounds really confused -- as, it would appear, many Clinton supporters are.

Sir, get the facts straignt: the nominee is chosen by the delegates and she has lost. Time to retreat.
OBama won the Maine caucus by a large margin but our votes aren't added to the popular vote total because we are a caucus state. That's all you need to know about the weakness of Hillary's argument she is winning. She's not, but she lies like a a Republican to make uneducated people think she is.
So we actually have these congress people who advocate for "BREAKING THE RULES'  WHY ARE THESE FOLK IN CONGRESS/  AFTER THIS IT'S TIME FOR AMERICANS TO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE CHANGES NECESSARY TO ENSURE THAT THE FOLK WE SEND TO WASHINGTON PLAY BY THE RULES REGARDLESS OF THE POLITICS.  

CANDIDATE IS NOT THE ISSUE IT'S THE RULES AND IF THESE WASHINGTON FOLK CANNOT ABIDE BY THE RULES AND ADVOCATE FOR OVER-THOWING THEIR OWN RULES THEY SHOULD NOT BE RE-ELECTED.

EITHER CANDIDATE MUST WIN BY THE RULES PERIOD.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
She's done. Ship it.
Too bad here in AMERICA (hell-o!) it is decided by DELEGATES.
They can play the popular vote all they want.....didn't help Gore either, did it? Hillary is done. D-O-N-E.
Reality?

Mr. Sestak, its useless for you to even use that word.

It is a word which is not in HRC's vocabulary.

Come to think of it, that word is not in McSame's vocabulary either especially when it comes to Iraq and the economy.
Delusional.  Obama will be the nominee.  It is time to stop with the double talk and unite the party.  The over arching goal should be to defeat the republicans.

HEY JOE SESTAK ... IT'S A DELEGATE RACE
Joe Sestak is just as delusional as Hillary and Bill Clinton. It's over Joe get used to it.
ENOUGH ALREADY.
SHE DOES NOT HAVE THE POPULAR VOTE< MI AND FLA DONT COUNT.
THEY DONT COUNT>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Lets get real here
Currently, the Clintons are claiming to be disrespected; however, they have disrespected the Democratic Party and American people--not to mention Senator Obama and his family--by disregarding the rules and insulting our intelligence and sense of moral decency.  Legacy = toast.
Back in the summer of 1960, the Democratic Convention in Los Angeles was about to held and JFK would become the democratic nominee. As you can imagine, there were parties all during that week. On one night in particular, Frank Sinatra gave a party at Romanoff’s. Everyone was there - Tony Curtis, Janet Leigh, Peter Lawford, Sammy Davis Jr., LBJ, Gore Vidal, Norman Mailer and on and on. Everyone was having a great time.

What do you suppose LBJ was doing at this party?

Well, he was walking around telling anyone who would listen that he was the only candidate who could defeat Richard Nixon.
HRC has lost.  Her campaign has been poorly managed.  She has demonstrated weak management skills.  Maybe, after she studies and learns some effective management/leadership skills she can try again.  Truthfulness is important!  Clinton "spin" does not sell well in 2008!
The only cold and brutal fact here is Clinton is hoping something bad will happen to Obama. And she is asking why the superdelegates are not coming out for her? Gender card and race card are all part of this political game, but hoping something horrible would happen to Obama is lowest point of this primary season.

What makes you think it won't be the 3rd such overwhelming landslide delivered by Clinton in the past few weeks.  Please hold you biased opinion to yourself dude!  Some of us WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA - GET OVER HIM AND YOURSELF.
I'm sorry - But this is simply nonsense...and for a supposed expert in the political arena to attest to such gibberish is unseemly. My 8th grade students can count better!Clinton really needs to watch her own step lest she return to the senate a completely damaged persona...her continuous comments, not one, but several, "involving assassination", have strained her credibility an all fronts.
Forget it Slezetack, It's over. Go home and take ALLL the Clinton's with you.
Dreaming is good, but I am hoping for a president that deals in reality.
Nothing has been designed to destroy the democratic party and their chances in November like these specious arguments about popular votes and electability based on irrelevant and meaningless polling (not to mention Karl Rove). All these arguments are doing is building up hostility toward the democrats and their nominee Obama among Clinton supporters.

There is no popular vote in the primaries (some caucus states don't keep the tallies so Clinton arguments about "counting every vote" disenfranchise voters in caucus states, but that's okay since only the states Clinton has won count---right? There is no way that any rational person can argue that the popular vote from Michigan should count when Clinton was the only one on the ballot, at the very least we have to give the uncommitted votes to Obama.

As for electability, there is no way to measure electability based on primary results or polls from six months out. A surprisingly accurate REPUBLICAN prediction site, electionprojection.com, has Obama beating McCain by more than 40 electoral votes right now anyway (without Florida, which McCain will win in November no matter who he's running against---Dems will not win Florida, it is a red state.)

Obama has won the democratic nomination entirely by the rules and fairly. He won it in February when he went on an 11 contest winning streak that no politician whose last name wasn't Clinton would have survived as the opposition.

Clinton is now doing nothing productive or beneficial for herself or her party.
I am suffering from CFS (Clinton Fatigue Syndrome.)  At one time I would have voted for either candidate but recent rhetoric on the part of both Clintons (and their spokesmen) have left me disappointed and just plain tired.  Those of us who have been paying attention understand that Obama will be the nominee.  These statements regarding popular votes, conspiracy,sexism, disrespect,  Fla/Mich,..... by the Clinton camp are disingenuous and only serve to divide the party further.
Give me a break. No matter how many ways you can spin this, Hillary cannot win. These "are cold, brutal facts of reality." The one thing you cannot do is reinvent the wheel, after you have invented the wheel. Hillary and her team has plundered her campaign, moral compass and may have damaged the Democratic party Beyond repair. It's time to get beyond the Nominee, who has so far played by the rules and does not pander to the voters so that you can claim something you think you are due. Being President is not a heirloom, it a process in which you have to be measured by the people. Hillary has been measured by the people, and she has been found measured and wanting.

OBAMA, 2008!!

Can anyone, please, take Clintons OFF the stage?
Pshh, facts, we don't need no stinking facts...  Clinton's going to be the nominee face it.. She's willing to say whatever it takes to get elected.  She'll bring a world of hurt on the GOP cause she's got the white working class and the blackies and youngin's will come home.
I would not vote for Hillary in the fall if the superdelegates overtime the voters choice which is Obama.  She is an monster and would kill to be the president.  I would vote for McCain any day over Hillary.  Obama and McCain both have honor and ethic morals while Hillary is dark and cutthroat. Obama is my first choice and I am a veteran.
Any remaining Clinton supporter or Super who goes Hillarys way now is clearly hallucinating and delusional.  Or maybe they are just scared of the Clintons.  Why would anyone jump onto a sinking ship?
Obama '08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dear Joe Sestak,
Shame on you.  It is one thing for HRC's arguments to resonate with voters who have a less sophisticated knowledge of the system, but certainly you know better than this.

The only pop lead Senator Clinton can claim is if:

1) She is willing to trade the rights of the voters in Florida and Michigan for the rights of the voters in the 5 caucus states.

2)  She claims all the votes in Michigan giving Obama zero.

3)  She adds the votes in PR that doesn't vote in the general.  

Let's just add to that the fact that this is a delegate race and we all know that both candidates from the beginning understood that.  Strategies are based on the goal set for the race.  

You should be ashamed of yourself for participating in Clinton's attempted hi-jacking of our electoral system.  YOU KNOW BETTER.

If Obama were going after popular votes, he would have gone to West V, Kentucky, and even Illinois.  He ran a race by the rules and Clinton is trying to win by defining some results.  You can't even consider the popular vote when states that were caucuses would be dismissed.  
A flawed campaign strategy with costs bordering on fraud. "Inevitability" and a powerful machine usurped by an upstart. Gaffes that reveal an unsavory mindset. Pledges made and later retracted when they become inconvenient. The delegate system and the electoral college are exactly what's necessary to prevent name recognition by the masses from crowning a mistake. Her supporters need to open their eyes. HRC is potentially a third Bush term also.
Or, if the popular vote argument doesn't work, there's a chance Obama might be assassinated in June.

Give it up, Clinton. If you have any class left at all, show it by gracefully bowing out.  
As usual, Clinton supporters live in fantasy worlds.  Could we all just please put this Clinton campaign to rest??? Even though it may be possible that Sen. Obama could lose these states, hopefully we can make up for those lost votes/voters by bringing in Independent voters, and new and younger voters- along with a larger than ever AA turnout vote, in addition to white women and men voters. The Obama campaign is as smart as it gets and I'm sure they've got a strategy.

OBAMA and anyone but Clinton, 2008!
Senator Obama has won this nomination.  It belongs to him and it is his to decide who he wants for a running mate.  I am a white female and I support Senator Obama.  This kind of rhetoric gets my blood boiling.  I am sick of Clinton and her pathetic attempts to hijack this nomination.  She has disgraced herself and is getting others to do the same to themselves.  I hope Senator Obama continues to conduct himself as he has the past months and continue to ignore her desperation antics.  I wish I could just go off on her--but then I would be sinking to her level.
DIDN'T HILLARY'S MOTHER TEACH HER TO BE GRACIOUS LOSER? DID SHE TEACH HER HOW TO PRESERVE FAMILY'S NAME?

MY...MY I HOPE CHELSEA DOESN'T TURN OUT TO BE THAT DELUSIONAL...
Senator Obama's "divide and conquer" brand of politics hasn't worked on everyone!!

Yes, Senator Clinton is probably going to win the popular vote...it's NOT over yet!!

On to the convention....wake up Democratic Party!!
Hello...anyone actually CARE about WINNING in Nov?

I guess it's more important to be "hopeful" than successful.
Again the Clintonistas want to override the Democratic Party nomination process and have the supers select Hillary because of some spurious polls. They continually ignore the fact that the people of the Party have voted the majority to date, according to the Party's rules, for Obama.

I am getting awfully tired of the Clintons. If they are so obsessed with the WH to the point where they can't live a normal life without being in it, then why didn't they plan better. At the start of the campaign they had almost unsurmountable leads in all categories. Delegates, money, and name recognition. How incompetent can you be to lose with those advantages? And now, Hillary and her supporters are trying any and everything. She even stooped so low as to bring in Bobby Kennedy's assassination.

Hillary, please stop and think. Maybe we the people just don't want you (because you are you) as President. This has nothing to do with your sex, your race, or your dubious claim of experience because your last name is Clinton. Maybe we want someone with integrity, honesty and caring for the Democratic Party and the American people.
Cold Hard facts.  Mr. Sestak you are requesting that the SD's overturn the elected delegate lead. You are arguing to count FL and MI as is( without giving Obama ANY delegates or popular vote in MI). You are arguing to count popular votes in Puerto Rico, a commonwealth, who votes do not count in the fall.   Finally, you argue for changing the rules after the fact.  If you have to win in this way whats the point and how can you call yourself a Jeffersonian/Jackson Democrat.
How would the turnout in the Puerto Rico primary have any bearing on electibility in the general election? Puerto Rico doen't get a vote in the general.
This guy is no lawyer. What a weak argument. "Obama will win but not by as much as she will".

How about she leaves so he can campaign without 1 arm behind his back & I'm sure his numbers will be much higher.
There are two things Hillary must do to make me believe she is a viable candidate and Presidential material.

She should put the Wright issue to bed, by stating she knows Obama’s beliefs and aspirations, and assure the voters that Obama does not share any of the beliefs espoused by Reverend Wright.    

Then she should say that Race should not be an issue in this or any election and state she does not want any voter that wont’ vote for a Black  candidate to vote for her.

It is the right thing for Hillary to do, in fact she should have quickly responded when both issues surfaced. If it doesn’t happen before June 3rd, the Clintons will never recover their reputation for supporting the end of racial discrimination.
I don't get the MSM.  In terms of numbers, this race has been over since Hillary lost Wisconsin back in February.  You guys and gals have literally carried her campaign since then by giving her the benefit of the doubt that because she was a Clinton, that she could stage this miracle comeback without forcing her to explain how she'd do it and still hold the party and all of its coalitions together since she would be winning by un-Democratic means?

Now you're writing headlines that "maybe" she stayed too long?  Give me a break Chuck Todd, you were the first person to write a article stating that she had every right to continue on after Ohio and Texas after other people started questioning her candidacy.

The only "brutal reality" that Hillary has to face is that at some point, she bought into her own myth and her own hype and the MSM instigated it all the way.


McCain's (media ignored) Triple Play:  Hagee, Parsley, and Falwell.  Lieberman (a top McCain surrogate) will say more great things about Hagee in July.
"Popular vote" only works if everybody ignores the caucus states like Iowa, Washington, Nevada, and Maine. I will never understand why the media is not questioning the Clinton campaign about this every time they bring up this metric.
Does this remind you of anyone?

http://www.simplych.com/newrule.gif

Senator Clinton's folks helped make the rules that they are refusing to play by. The MSM seems to take all these talking points like they have some validity. Get a spine guys - report the facts. That's called journalism.

Makes my head hurt. As an Obamacan, I gotta say my admiration for him is NOT spreading to the Democratic Party as a whole...
The popular vote has not been determined because caucus votes have not been included nor other voters other than Hillary Clinton in FL and MI. The two candidates come from a different perspective as to change and how to do it. Barack Obama has a right to pick who he feels will compliment his views. I am too tired of the Clinton campaign trying by any means necessary (mostly not correct statements) to get her on the ticket. This will not bring the party together.

It has been shown that Obama can win other states that could make up for the perception. If the vote came out in MI again....Clinton would not be the winner. She did not take TX, it was a splite. Next, in PA he brought down her 30 point lead...he was an unknown....she is the person everyone knew.
Senator Clinton has lost all credibility with her last antic of reference of assassination.
What rational, uncomitted, superdelegates would get behind her as the nominee?

Congressmen Rangel and Clyborn chastited her assassination remarks. I would imagine other uncomitted, superdelegates also have taken a dim view.

VP negotiations  are her only last futile attempt. Why not use Bill for healing and unity for the party and nation?
Who are these people in government?  

In 2000, it was not the popular vote, it was the electoral college!

This primary, it won't either.  

Florida does not count, no one campaigned there.  

This is ludacris and this popular vote argument is very wildered.  

After watching RECOUNT, I am more convinced she needs to get out of this race. She wants to discount the states that didn't go in her favor, but only count the votes that are for her.    
I don't understnad this argument.  I'm sure it would be possible ofr Al Gore to poll better against McCain than Obama.  However, the fact of the matter is, Al Gore isn't winning the Democratic primary race.

Moving goal posts:
1. Delegates, delagates delegates, and Michigan and FLorida don't count.
2. Superdelgates, can't count them out and need to be heard.  
3. Caucus states shouldn't count in the delegate count, so I'm still in there.
4. I am winning the big states wih important general election electoral college votes.
5. I am winning the white blue collar vote in the big states with important general election Elect college votes.
6. Listen to the voters, if you count all of Florida and Michigan, I'm winning the popular vote. Of course, we ( Clinton campaign) don't want to give Obama any votes ro delegates from Michigan or FLorida and those stupid caucus state voters don't count in the popular vote.
7. I am winning because Obama may be assasinated.
8. I'm winning because I have the popular vote and there is a big conspiracy to get me out of the race.
9. The Democratic Party justs needs to redo their rules because the voice of the people isn't being heard. How can the supedelegates over rule the popular vote. See # 1 and #2 above.
10. The polls now show I'm ahead in the states I won against McCain compared to Obama's margins against McCain.

Of course, we'll ignore all polls that showed Obama beating McCain by bigger margins, 11 states won in a row, more delegates, more popular vote, states where he has one the white vote, the fact that he is still alive as proof that he too, at manty time in this campaign, has shown that he should be the nominee by Hillary's moving goal posts to the nomination.

Oh, I forgot the the last goal post.
11. The candaditae should be named Hillary Clinton.

Ther ya have it, Hillary wins by the rules.


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