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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Flor-igan: Previewing the meeting

Posted: Friday, May 30, 2008 9:23 AM by Mark Murray

There are 30 members of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, and here’s the breakdown: 13 back Clinton, eight support Obama, and nine are uncommitted, including the two co-chairs, Alexis Herman VA and James Roosevelt. A majority vote of those present is needed to pass a resolution or judgment.
 
CLINTON (13): Hartina Flournoy  DC; Donald L. Fowler SC; Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. TX; Alice A. Huffman CA; Harold Ickes DC; Ben Johnson DC; Elaine C. Kamarck MA; Eric Kleinfeld DC; Mona Pasquil CA; Mame Reiley VA; Garry S. Shay CA; Elizabeth M. Smith DC; and Michael Steed MD.
 
OBAMA (8): Martha Fuller Clark NH; Carol Khare Fowler SC; Janice Griffin MD; Thomas C. Hynes IL; Allan Katz FL; Sharon Stroschein SD; Sarah Swisher IA; and Everett Ward NC.
 
UNCOMMITTED in addition to Herman and Roosevelt (7): Donna Brazile DC; Mark Brewer MI; Ralph Dawson NY; Yvonne Atkinson Gates NV; Alice Germond WV; David T. McDonald WA; and Jerome Wiley Segovia VA.

Here are the results of the earlier contests:
MICHIGAN: (Jan. 15): 157 total: 128 pledged, 29 supers
55% Clinton (translates to 73 delegates)
40% Uncommitted  (55 delegates)
 
FLORIDA: (Jan. 29): 211 total: 185 pledged, 26 supers
50% Clinton  (105 delegates)
33 % Obama (67 delegates)
14% Edwards (14 delegates -- 9 of these have pledged to vote for Obama)

The Los Angeles Times has a good primer on the issues at stake this weekend, saying that there are two issues before the Rules committee. “The first involves whether to seat 368 delegates from the renegade states along with 49 superdelegates, and if so, how. Party legal experts issued a memo this week advising that, under party rules, committee members can restore no more than half of the states' convention delegates. So if the panel decided to recognize Florida and Michigan, it could allow the states to send half of their delegates to the convention. Or it could seat all of the delegates and give each half a vote. The second -- and far trickier -- issue is how to divvy up those delegates between Clinton and Obama.”

Will Clinton supporters hurt their cause if their protest gets out of hand tomorrow? "Among the scheduled speakers at the rally are Clinton fundraiser Elizabeth Bagley; two members of Congress who back the New York senator, Reps. Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Corrine Brown of Florida; and Kim Gandy, president of the National Organization for Women. Her group's political action committee has endorsed Clinton."

Obama's chief Michigan supporter claims Obama supports a full seating of Florida and Michigan -- just wanting a split that's not based on the January vote. "The Obama campaign supports seating the Florida and Michigan delegations in full, Obama's Michigan campaign director Michael Simon told me. A Democratic National Committee (DNC) memo indicates only half the delegates can be seated, but it might be possible for the entire delegations to go and their votes be worth half. ‘That is not an acceptable solution. We'll be pretty disappointed if they're docked by half, but Barack Obama is not the nominee yet,’ Simon said. ‘That's something that he will work swiftly to prevent when he is the nominee.’”

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Comments

Ugh. This is going to get messy.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Obama MUST start countering Clinton's specious popular vote argument.   If he does not, he will get Bushed.  This is the condition in which if people hear something insinuated often enough (Saddam was behind 9/11 for example), they start to believe it.  She is NOT ahead in the popular vote nor is such a count even possible given the 4 caucus states.  He's in danger of losing this argument though.  Come on Obama; step up.
First, it needs to be reported that Harold Ickes, Clinton campaign manager, voted to strip MI and FL of their delegates. Hillary agreed to the terms. Therefore, she is retracting her commitment and the legal document she signed agreeing to the terms. Second, if the delegates are seated as is without counting the uncommitted votes in MI, be prepared for a lawsuit. The uncommitted voters can sue for having their votes not count and just Hillary which is disenfranchising their voice. There is a case to be made especially since she signed the legal document agreeing to seat none of the votes, but now she is only allowing her votes to count. Third, she is on the record stating that if MI and Fl agree to the DNC terms of seating all of the delegates with half a vote, she will respect their decision. It would be hypocritical because she once again retracted her position. This can hurt her political because it proves she is in it for herself and not the best of the party. just a thought.
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The Dems will end up sealing their fate when the choose NOT to seat the FULL deligation of both MI and FL.

WHY was South Carolina not punished for moving thier primaries up?  Do the "rules" only apply to those states that would seem to favor Clinton and the DNC choses to turn a blind eye to those states who broke the rules but went for Obama?

So much for DEMOCRACY and the American way of life!
The Florida-Michigan delegate issue is now going from annoying sideshow to being a total disaster. What are these 30 elite goons from the Democratic party going to come up with? No matter what they do, they still will disenfranchise millions of voters. Obama can't get any votes from Michigan (save for the write-ins), his name wasn't on the ballot! The only thing that matters is the people's vote, and until  the Democrats finally decide that is what matters, then the Democratic are just blowing smoke to cover their sorry butts.
Tomorrow will be very interesting.  Sounds like Clinton wants all and no compromise on a dead issue.  

It seems, we didn't learn in 2000 and here we are again as the laughing stock due to Dems letting republicans decide how the democratic election will go.  Tubbs and Brown need to go some place and sit down and quit making more mockeries out this chaotic primary.
1/2 is 1/2 and move on! Obama wants a split and why not on states that were not supposed to count.  
I hope the Clinton folks show out tomorrow and remind us why that circus should not be in the White House!
Countdown Begins Today: When will Obama start playing the race card against McCain?

Obama will play the race card through surrogates (i.e. Axelrod, Plouffe, Rep. Clyburn, Sen. Kerry, etc.).

Obama and his whiney wife, Michelle, have no integrity. They're experts at playing the "black victim candidate" role in order to gain short-term electoral advantage.

It's to the point that you can't criticize Obama without Obama surrogates accusing you of racism.
Looks like a wash....I'd hate to be a superdelegate and back the wrong candidate...career ending decision. End of the road is bitter and lonely but clinging to your guns and religion should give comfort...true so true...
Ralley behind the winner not the screaming loser...
"Will Clinton supporters hurt their cause if their protest gets out of hand tomorrow?"

Absolutely.

I understand and appreciate the importance of seating Florida and Michigan but for Clinton supporters to protest outside the meeting sends the wrong message...that it is not about serving democracy as much as it is about serving their candidate.
donna brazile is uncommitted? give me a break. anyone that has half the sense of a newborn can plainly see that she's in for obama.
She's not going to stop - even if Pelosi and Reid step in.

That crazy priest was not far off the mark (even though he shouldn't have said it from the pulpit) - she thinks she's entitled, and someone came in and stole her crown.  She's a fighter, all right - fight for what's "mine", that is.

Someone said it on MSNBC this week - Naked ambition.
Remember that song that says "you've got to stand for something or you'll fall for anything"? She will fall for anything, as long as she gets her way, and this country is in trouble, we do not need another Clinton, period. Would you trust her, if she were VP, as bad as she wants Pres? Yeah, when pigs fly!
Absoultely no doubt about it . . . Clinton has laid the groundwork to fight this thing all the way to the convention floor and has every intention of fighting on after next week

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rachel-maddow/clinton-to-the-convention_b_103078.html

As already reported on MSMBC, the Clinton campaign does not plan on accepting anything but a 100% seating of both FL and MI with MI's "not-Clinton" delegates all going to her carefully hand-picked MI delegation

Even after Obama clinches the final number of delegates next week, she will appeal the DNC ruling on FL/MI all the way to the convention floor

And make no doubt about it, the Republicans will fan the fire all the way to the convention and then still have the gall to say that the winner "stole" the nomination

Congratulations Democrats . . . you idiots have just assured us of 4 more years of Bush/McCain and a Supreme Court that will roll the calendar on civil rights back 100 years

un-freaking-believable!!!
Regardless Clinton will have the Popular vote and niether may get to the new magic number. Then you add in all the associations of Obama coming out of the woodwork. This new guest speaker at his church is very disturbing. That sort of serman will devide the country more than ever. The most frightening part is the exhuberant positive response it got from the congregation and the current pastor of whom Mr. Obama is proud. Even David Axelrod acknowledged on Morning Joe that Obama was not shocked or surprised by these comments. If that is the case and he is aware that these sorts of messages are delivered and recieved with enthusiasm regularly in this church, why is he still a member? This is not a bout race. Hate does not have a color. He will be unelectable by November. Hillary should stay in until the end so there is a second choice at the very least.
Does anyone know has this happened before? A state move its date up in violation of the party rules? and if so what was the solution then?

I thought i hear this has happened before.
Dirk, I don't know about you but I'll call a spade a spade, and a racist a racist.  When people are saying I'm not going to vote for Obama because I feel the President should be white, they're racist.  If someone trys to pigeonhole Obama as the "black" candidate I'll say they're trying to play the race card.  If you disagre with Obama's policies then state that, I'll try to change your mind but I can at least will be respectfull of your decision.

And when you start saying I have problems with policies you'd better be able to tell me what those problems are rather than using the talking points from the other side.

Oh and one more thing, do tell me when Obama first played the race card...  Cause if you say South Carolina then I'm going to be laughing at you for swallowing Bill Clinton's spin
I think rank and file delegates who played NO ROLE in this mess should get to go the Convention and all the party leadership delegates who were part of this mess, who created this mess should get to STAY HOME.

That's how I'd rule if I was the boss :)
Good information Chuck.  It will likely be UGLY at the RBC meeting tomorrow.  If the Hillary supports go "Nuclear" and/or walk out if they don't get their way, I expect the Superdelegates will/should be embarrassed enough and decide.

To me the "Headline" is that Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and Harry Reid are ready to step in. Reading between the lines, the big three are now convinced that Hillary will take this thing to the convention, create a mess to make Obama unelectable. Ickes has done that twice before and cost the general election in the fall. The big three want to end it now, which I see happening.  Maybe not today, but if the May 31 meeting goes UGLY, (and I think it will) starting Sunday, Monday and Tuesday the supers will vote, mostly for Obama.  If the vote is large enough, Hillary will be forced to d/c her campaign.
As is said in an earlier comment. DO NOT underestimate Nancy Pelosi. She is where she is because she is a master politician.

Just read the NYT story about Hillary's drinking. As one with a lot of experience in dealing with alcoholism and the personality traits usually associated with the disease I always wondered whether Hillary might have had a problem with alcohol. I'm not saying she is the behavior (not the drinking) would suggest maybe. Now, with the more obvious in your face drinking you have to wonder.  So, is this who we want in the White House when the phone rings at 3AM.  I think not ..... Hiccup! As far as the popular vote theory goes .... votes shouldn't count in contests that didn't count in the first place. I guess it all depends on the deinition of "is".  Those Clintons .... what a great backdrop for a sitcom. "Those Clintons"  .... They would be living in a small cape style house abutting the White House occupied by Obama of course ... "Those Clintons"....I'm laughing already!
Dick from Brunseick Georgia , I have not heard the Obama's play any race card. i also have not heard Obama's wife whine. So why dont you leave his wife out of this and I will stay out of your wife.
So caucus states are to get no popular votes at all? Talk about disenfranchised voters?  Why arn't the Clintons worried about them.  But, even beyond this......So, let's get this over with.  Thousands dead in Iraq, hundreds of thousands wounded, an economy in shambles, an evironment in crisis, and our childred getting inferior education or none at all.  To heck with the preachers, thank McClellon and lets get on with electing Obama so Washington can finally change.  It does not take rocket science to figure this out.  Good for Pelosi and Reid! Hillary, a demonstration?  Give me a break and give the intelligent eletorate some credit.  You should be ashamed of yourself!
This was from Daily Kos an excerpt from a Function that Michelle Obama Held Earlier this week:

"She called on another supporter, whose voice quivered and broke with barely contained emotion as she explained how important it is to her, personally, that Barack Obama be elected. How important it is to her, personally, that our country change its course.

She was on the verge of tears as she explained that she just returned from Oregon where she campaigned for Obama and attended the 75,000-person rally by the river. She had noticed, she said, that the Secret Service had increased security dramatically for Barrack Obama's rallies since the Phoenix rally in January.

The room collectively gasped and murmured, some aghast that these fears were being spoken aloud directly to Barack Obama's beloved wife. Some nodded, concern and fear clear on their faces. Others shifted on their feet, displaying a range of emotions -- concern, discomfort with the topic, indignation -- it is not often that such topics are broached in polite company.

Pulling herself together, the supporter asked,

   What can you tell us...

and then her voice caught and broke as a sob rose up from her chest. She paused for a moment to quell her emotion, to find her voice again.

   I'm afraid of what might happen. What can you tell us, after last week's comments

...another sob broke up her words...

   after last week's comments, to make us feel more at ease.

She cried unabashedly after finally getting out her words.

The room that had been electrified with positive energy throughout the evening suddenly became still and quiet, all eyes focused on Michelle Obama. Michelle Obama's eyes, though, were focused on that concerned supporter. She paused, allowing the clearly distraught supporter to pull herself together. It seemed like several minutes went by, as we all waited, wondering how she would answer this highly personal and evocative question. Probably only 30 seconds went by, but it seemed like several minutes. Finally, she said simply, firmly,

   I'm ok.

   Really. I am ok.

   And if I'm ok, you should be ok.

She paused, then talked for a moment about what this means, personally, to her.

   You know, we talked about this as a family.

She held the microphone with one hand, the other curved inward over her heart as she talked. Her tenor and body language was clear. Michelle Obama was talking as a mother. She was introspective and intimate, looking the questioner in the eyes as if they are the only two in the room.

   We talked about this as a family.

The room remained still and quiet. Imagine having that talk with your children. Then, she paused, gathering herself, pulling herself up, seeming to grow even taller, Michelle, the campaigning wife returns. She says,

   I've talked about this before. Barack is probably safer now than he was before. Kids are dying in the street in our community. They get shot walking to class, sitting in school, taking the bus home. They are dying in the street.

Her eyes roved the audience, and she implored,

   Send us good vibes. Pray for us. Think positive thoughts. But most of all, be vigilant. Be vigilant about stopping this kind of talk.

   It's not funny.

   You don't have to like Barack to dislike that kind of talk. Be vigilant about stopping that kind of talk.

In that moment, Michelle Obama's voice displayed a mixture of emotions. She was talking as a mother of two young girls who need their father. She was talking as a wife, whose love for her husband is plain to see in her eyes. She was talking as a compassionate human being who believes that kind of talk is inappropriate and unacceptable about any political candidate, not just about her husband, not just about the father of her children -- about any politician.

What Michelle Obama says next was powerful. It would have brought the crowd to its feet if the crowd weren't already standing. She reminded us what we are fighting for, and why it is important to forge ahead with no fear,

   Fear is the reason this country is where it is today. Fear is a useless emotion.

   Don't ever make decisions based on fear. Make decisions based on hope and possibility. Make decisions based on what should happen, not what shouldn't.

   Don't ever make decisions based on fear."

And Wolfson has the Gaul to Bitch and complain that Obama didn't "specifically" apologize for the statements against Clinton??  Her Comment has Traumatized millions of voters who got chills hearing it.  They didn't even have the class to apologize to the Obama supporters to whom (knock on wood) if such a thing should ever happen would devastate them.  This is crazy.  

from watching the numbers above she has the majority there right now.  I know the Clinton's have been on the phone with these people as has Ickes trying to pressure them to side with them on this.  This thing may end up Dead locked.  They really plan to steal this thing on Saturday.  I have a sick feeling in my stomach.  She really does NOT care about the party's chances in the fall . . . if she isn't at the helm.  She and her people are doing all they can to torpedo his chances:  Sexism, Media Bias, 'they' pushing her out . . ..  Come on.  Sure she isn't 'directly' attacking Obama but these kind of charges . . . who do you think her supporters are going to think is responsible for it!???!!!  Chuck you guys need to be fair call her on it!  The Clintons are STILL getting preferential treatment and attention!!  Just like 2004 again on thing Bush is 'CLINTON'.  How Ironic!?!


PA Voter, get your facts straight:

South Carolina was allowed to have an early primary. They were one of the four states allowed to go before Feb. 5 (Iowa, NH, Nevada being the others).

You'll have to find another stick with which to flagellate yourself.
With Howard Dean running the DNC, no wonder you liberals are going to be shut out of the White House in 08.  He is without a doubt, the biggest moron I have ever seen in politics.  No wonder he wasn't man enough to win in 2004.
The reason why "Desperate" Hillary didn't want to quit was because she thought with 13 of the 28 voting members of the committee that will decide how Florida and Michigan will be settled she would be able to steal away the nomination from Barack behind closed doors.

It was never "Bag Lady" Hillary's intention to win honestly the past 3 months, she's always thought that this packed committee would bail her out of her own incompetent campaigning and steal away the rightfully earned victory of Barack Obama.

This committee better tread lightly and not pull any fast ones or they will destroy the Democratic Party for sure.  Once again proof that the Wicked Witch of the East has no party loyalty, only loyalty to herself.

Go Obama 08/12!
How many protesters will actually pull the lint from their pockets, and eat the travel, as well as, room, and board expenses to the Rules, and Bylaws Committee meeting on Saturday?

They don't believe in Hillary enough to send her a five spot, let alone spend over 4 bucks a gallon on a futile protest. I mean, really.
The problem is that Clinton is obssessed now to win nomination no matter what. She certainly will not win, but it well within her power to divide, split Democratic Party. That why she organised her supporters to protest. If she will loose RBC comittee ruling, she will appeal to the credentials comittee, then to the full convention. She does not care at this point winning or loosing , she cares that Obama not win general election. Anybody who has doubts about her actual intentions in this race are, well, very naive people.
PA Voter (Sent Friday, May 30, 2008 9:32 AM)

Ok, you're so completely uninformed that I don't really believe you know the difference between a square and a circle.

The DNC states in their rules that the ONLY states to hold primaries before Tuesday, Feburary 5th, 2008 would be Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.  That's all.  The Democrats were trying to give regional balance to the Midwest(Iowa), the Northeast(New Hampshire), the West(Nevada), and the South(South Carolina).

Once Michigan and Florida broke the rules the DNC decided to strip them of their delegates in order to prevent any other states moving their primaries before Feb 5th.  And it should be noted that every state voted and agreed upon these rules over a year ago, including Florida and Michigan.  They knew the rules were in place and still tried to make themselves more important in the process.  They could have gone on 2/5 and could have had their voices heard just like 22 other states.  They tried to upsurp the process and got smacked for it.

Now if you wanna go spout some bull, please go to the White House.  I hear they're still looking for some good liars.
Memo to Ken: Write in votes were not certified by the State of Michigan. We were told this one week before the primary. MICHIGAN SHOULD NOT BE SEATED. Many did not vote because their canidate was not on the ballot, I can promise there will be aclass action suit if Michigan is seated.


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