The new math

Posted: Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:31 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Out of the day, Clinton got 87 pledged delegates to Obama's 63 for a net of 24. (52.5 to 33.5 out of Florida; 34.5 to 29.5 out of Michigan.)

Obama is now 62.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination with a new magic number 2,118. This is when the nine (cut to 4.5) Edwards pledged delegates (out of 13) in Florida, who have pledged to vote for Obama, are factored in. Without them, Obama would be 67 away.

Clinton, on the other hand, would need 238 delegates.

NBC NEWS has also now added officially 5.5 more superdelegates for Obama and 7.5 for Clinton (half of 8-6 for Clinton in FL; and 7-5 for her in MI).

Assuming Clinton and Obama split the remaining 86 delegates at stakes in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana evenly (43 apiece), that would put Sen. Obama 19.5 away from clinching the nomination. (So, for all practical purposes, he would need about 20 superdelegates to hit the magic number.) Clinton would need 195.

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: 1712 to 1587
SUPERDELEGATES: 327 to 293
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: 16.5 to 0 (adding the 4.5 from Florida)
OVERALL: 2,055.5 to 1,880

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Chuck, Domenico, and staff,

Thanks for today. G-D bless.

donna (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:36 PM)

It's official.

Hillary Imelda Evita Clinton, is a world class loser!

twin (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:37 PM)

Wow. Starck numbers. Impossible numbers. What last few arguments could Hillary still have in the bag, if all he needs is like 20 supers? I don't know how I feel about her popular vote argument, seeing as it leaves out a few caucuses and no one will ever know how MI should be counted.

Kayla (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:40 PM)

It's time for the dems to be confident.

Don't heed the repub propaganda spewing forth on these boards.

We'll run them off, just like we did the last bunch, posing as dems, the past few months!

When is the last time we heard from HP?

ET (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:40 PM)

good guys: 1 Alcoholic has beens: 0

Flag Pins are Lame (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:40 PM)

Nice job Domenico for toting up the numbers for us and many thanks to the First Read crew for posting these informative articles and many reader comments.

Looks like Obama has victory within easy sight and next week we should have a winner we can all unify behind to send "Bush Hugger" McCain into political retirement, where all Reagan foot soldiers belong!

Go Obama 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:41 PM)

Hahahah, 20 Supers for BO Vs. 195 Supers for HRC!!!

Mr. Todd, I think its safe to say THIS THING IS OVER!!!!

Justice has been served.

And for all you Hillary radicals who are more content with "taking this to the Convention", and thus, destroying the party - consider this...YOU GUYS ARE LUCKY HILLARY GOT ANY DELEGATES TODAY!!!

This entire Hearing was a HRC sham! If she didnt whine and complain like a 2 year old because she was getting badly beat, this never would have happened. The fact remains, MI and Fl broke the rules and were entitled to ZERO delegates. So the fact that Hillary came away with ANY delegate advanatage from today should be seen as a huge coup for you Hillary radicals. Although, it appears that all your whining and complaining only delayed the inevitable...and thats a Barack Obama nomination!!!

Christian (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:41 PM)

Mean time Hillary is having a dionysian experience in Perto rico.
She is enjoying the island habit of a Car Caravan
which is tantamout to DESPERATION,
iT MAY HELP the pop vote but it is al over
Obama 08

gene eagle bear tombstone az (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:42 PM)

I hope we're not too little too late. I think there's been enough damage by the Clinton Campaign, to make me nervous regarding whether Obama can take the presidency or not. I'm just hoping after all this crap, she will not be on the ticket with Obama. The superdelegate should have ended this a long time ago, this feeling of "I'm entitled and unless you are going allow me to finish out till all votes are counted in all states, then I'll ruin the rest of you" is just BS. Get a backbone SD's.

Primaryfatigue, texas (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:42 PM)

The DRC Meeting, which should have had a goal of making sure Florida and Michigan voters were fairly represented in choosing the nominee, turned out to be “simply Politics as usual. It was apparent that the agenda was concerned with which candidates could get the most delegates.

I expected better, but the members of the DRC quickly proved that their views were determined by the needs of the Candidates they endorsed or worked for. The DNC had an opportunity to show the American Voters that they could come up with a fair solution that would please the voters in Florida and Michigan, but that didn’t happen. I don’t think we needed a Solomon and a Sword.

It shouldn’t have been about 50% or 100% of delegates or half vote or full vote.. The key was to determine how the voters of Florida and Michigan might have voted in “real” Primaries where they knew their vote would count. The DNC could have taken a secret poll of the voters in June, but that would have been too easy.

The latest June State General Election polls showed that Hillary and Obama were tied at 44% against McCain. So the Michigan delegates should have been split 50-50. In Florida, Hillary had 48% and Obama 41%. Based on 100%, Hillary gets 54% and Obama 46%. Not that it matters but the popular vote could have been split that way as well.

The Florida and Michigan Voters would view it as fair since it was based on polls not flawed Primaries and the DRC and DNC would have proven they could rise above the back room political bickering we are all tired of,. Shame on them, shame on us.

Dennis Boyle, Dallas Texas (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:42 PM)

This is what is at stake in Nov: Economy in crisis, housing crisis, health care mess, gas prices, food prices, the environment, wars in Iraq and Afghan.

We need to unite to elect a democrat in Nov. We have had eight years of mess to clean up. I know Sen.Clinton supporters are upset now. It is understandable. I remember what Michael Moore said in a Larry King interview. He said he supported Sen.Obama but if SenClinton won, he would drag himself to the polls and vote for the D. Most Sen.Obama supporters said the same in exit polls. As a woman, I know it feels like we lost the chance for a woman president. But voting for Sen.McCain is not the answer.

I believe Sen.Obama won fairly. He did not bring up any of the Clinton scandals where as he had to fight her name recognition, his race and pastor.

Let us unite and focus on the big prize

Becky in CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:45 PM)

Why does Chuck keep assuming that Obama will win half the remaining pledged delegates (PR, MT, & SD)? A 50/50 split in DT and SD seem likely, or maybe net of one or two to Obama, but isn't Clinton likely to net something like a dozen in Puerto Rico?

All academic of course, since Obama is the nominee, but just sayin...

AJ, Boston, MA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:45 PM)

OK SDs lets do your job. Make it decisive...and don't give her a credible chance to question the credentials committee in Denver. Make it a moot point.
Give him the landslide victory that he deserves for his presidential patience with her dastardly behavior. And.....don't even think about her as VP...I for one would not donate to a ticket with her on it. She is the antithesis of Obamanation.

Tom in Seattle (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:45 PM)

I'm guessing the uncertainty of this thing will last less than a week. Did you notice how many unpledged delegates voted for the motions that ultimately passed? Wonder how many Clinton SD's were offended by Harold EEK-ees' restatement of the "nuclear option" threat. Do you want to win in November or do you want that possibility to be in doubt? That's the question these people are currently considering.

Ian (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:45 PM)

Come on supers, it's your turn now. Show the American people that you will respect their decision and back Barack Obama. Hillary has lost, fair and square. It's time to show her the door and help us unite as democrats. It's the only way we can win in Nov.

Also thanks to Domenico for staying late on Saturday and keeping us all informed.

chris, SC (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:45 PM)

this is crazy!!!!!

DNC's rules should be changed in 2012

This time- Obama should get the nomination.

Paula Levy, Florida (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:47 PM)

We can dare to believe in our future.

Gregory Peek, Birmingham, Alabama (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:47 PM)

I think all the digruntled hillary supporters NEED to vote McCain!

Bob, MA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:47 PM)

give it a rest hillary.TIME FOR CHANGE! or better yet CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN

allison (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:48 PM)

if hillsy steals this in August I think all the digruntled Obama supporters NEED to vote McCain!

Bob, MA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:48 PM)

I think all the digruntled hillary supporters NEED to vote McCain!

Bob, MA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:49 PM)

First Read is on point once again. Great job guys.

Dan in La Paz, Bolivia for vacation (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:50 PM)

We all know what Obama wants to do for Tuesday night, but do you think he can pull it off? He probably has more than 20 in the wings, but can he convince 20 of em to declare by poll closing Tuesday?

Zack (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:51 PM)

This is a joke, each and every vote should count, and since they don't I pray that Florida and Michigan both will turn on the DNC and vote Republican, since they are half a person, half a sate, half American, speak up in NOV. 2008 and let the DNC know, you will heard if not by them then by the REPUBLICAN PARTY, show them and vote MCCAIN.

notfairintheusa (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:51 PM)

These women are seriously embarrassing and what’s sad and scary about their actions is that they make people question the thought of having a woman as president.

If we are going to have these types of reactions or one can say “Over Reactions” because their candidate who ran an incompetent and ineffective campaign didn’t win, we will never have a shot. The only person who took this victory away from Hilary Clinton is Hillary Clinton.

And now it’s time for these women to come to terms with this FACT and stop embarrassing themselves and the rest of the Woman’s Movement!

Denise, Orange County California (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:51 PM)

New Math = This is the end of the road for Hillary *POOF* Clinton

Bye Hillary and leave your keys (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:52 PM)

I've been stunned by the hyprocrisy coming out of the Clinton camp when they insist on "playing by the rules" and "count all the votes" and in the next breath claim that Hillarity leads in elected delegates and popular vote because they don't include the results from caucuses. Hillarity clearly is the candidate representing four more years of the politics of fear, the ridiculous and the absurd. What we need is change, who we need is Barak Obama. Let's move on.

Greg Peterson, Kamuela, HI (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:52 PM)

20 delegates needed for Barack to 195 for Hillary. Pretty sweet numbers. You got to love it. Come on Super Delegates. It's time for your to shine.

chris, SC (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:52 PM)

Tom in Seattle (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:53 PM)

Let me be one of the first to say congratulations to Sen Obama on his (soon to be )nomination!

Thanks to Sen Clinton too - the fought was long and hard, but you came just a little short.

Let's hope that the threat by Mr. Ickes on behalf of Sen Clinton to extend this fight to the Credentials Committee is just that -- a threat. And to the Clinton supporters who are mad as hell now (why, I'm not too sure - the COMPROMISE seems fair), democracy is a messy thing. We all saw that today.

Maybe tomorrow in the light of day - you will begin to realize that the system ain't perfect -- but it, with all its flaws, still works. And be thankful that it does.

Get used to saying: President Barack Obama!

Obama '08

Obama Supporter from NY (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:53 PM)

Thank goodness this is over. Now on to beating Mc-InSane !

For the clinton supporters, just remember she got more than she should have gotten today. She signed a pledge and is even on tape stating their votes would not count.

If she were truly concerned about Fla. & Mich voters, she would have objected "B-E-F-O-R-E" SIGNING THE PLEDGE. After Feb. she thought she would not need you. She "used" you all for her benefit... not for yours. She is very good at manipulating and cheating. She was awarded today for not playing by the rules and forcing the DNC's hand.

Shell, Indy (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:53 PM)

clinton is su
per dyonisian campaigning in Puerto Rico with a car caravan of drunken followers , this is DESPERATE
JUST SIGN IN TO A hOLIDAY INN AND GET A GOOD NIGHT REST

GENE EAGLE BEAR TOMBSTONE AZ (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:55 PM)

Is Harold Ickes drunk?

Suspicious in Seattle (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:02 PM)

In light of the DNC's decision to include Michigan's delegates in the candidates totals, will MSNBC also include the "uncommitted" popular vote tallies for Michigan in Sen. Obama's column as well? If MSNBC Does, this should now erase Sen. Clinton's so-called popular vote lead claim as well.

Creatortj, Orange, NJ (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:03 PM)

Good, now let's move on. Why? Our troops are dying because of a lie. Our citizens are living in poverty. Our Bill of Rights is in tatters. The Republicans want to keep it that way. The Democrats want to change it. Hillary supporters: Hey, I understand that you're unhappy. But if you vote for McCain, then you have blood on your hands. Plain and simple.

Ohio Voter (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:03 PM)

My Goodness!!!! How many maths are we going to have to learn to keep up with this game. How many different ways can we count the delegates???? This is retarded to say the least. We know who the nominee is. I refuse to learn any more new math. Obama and McCain in the general. That is math that I can follow. 1+1= Obama.

Fuzzy math giving me headaches (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:04 PM)

See, It Does Not Matter HOW You Arrange The Deck Chairs, Her Titanic Failure Still Resounds with a FLOP!! The Clintons are like 3 day old fish, and their politics smell worse!!
She is losing sooooooo bad there is not a thing she can do, Live With It!!

Annadda Human On Da Planet, A City (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:04 PM)

Obama could have hit his mark of keeping Hillary's gain under 20, but he opted instead to do what was most magnanimous, and healing, for the party.

I love Senator Obama.

clairton, pa. (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:05 PM)

All this ridiculous hoopla over Clinton's ego. I used to worship the Clintons. They are horrible people after seeing this unfold. They are too dangerous for this party and a thorn in it as long as they remain with us. Hopefully, they will use the next available swift shutting door.

DB304 (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:05 PM)

Hillary...please be smart.

If you do plan on running in 2012 I think now is the time to bow out GRACEFULLY. Sure, sure, wait until after Tuesday but, please, for your political future's sake and for the sake of the upcoming general election, admit defeat and move on with your head held as high as it can be at this point.

Scott W, Loveland, Ohio (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:07 PM)

I've been warmed up for a long time - can I sing now?

- Barbara

Jack Hussein Donovan, Cedar Rapids, IA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:08 PM)

There's nothing really to debate here...

Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

Obama 08!!

My vote cancels out your vote! (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:09 PM)

Her supporters disgraced themselves and also the Women Rights Movement. This was not a fight they should have put their energy into… No one took this opportunity away from her, she lost it because of poor planning, poor budgeting, poor communicating and the most important aspect of it all she lost because of poor judgment; she lost it at her own hands and not at the hands of others. And its sad that these women have so low expectation of themselves that they believe that Hillary Clinton is their only and last chance to become President; what do they tell next generation that the Women’s Movement ended with Hillary Clinton…

She was not the right candidate for this fight and there is no other way to spin this and no logical way to blame others for this…. The time will come when we will have a woman President and she would have earned this because she would have fought hard from the bottom up and because she felt she was entitled.

justwaitandsee (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:09 PM)

It is now McBush vs. BO. You choose.

Jim B California (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:09 PM)

I'd expect to see the supers begin to move now.

Alphaman (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:09 PM)

Yaaaaah! Maf baby!

tellinya (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:10 PM)

I am so glad we can move forward now. Come on Supers....let's get this done and finally turn the page. Even if all the Clinton supporters don't move towards Obama there will be plenty of people like me...Republicans for Obama that will close the gap!

Obama 08 and 12

Melissa, Fishers, Indiana (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:10 PM)

So 1+1= something close to 3 unless you complain to the delegated mathematicians who will really make it closer to 2 but more likely 4. Oops I forgot the protesting. Get a move on and lets not mess up the numbers needed to win the general election where these stupid mathematics put our pressedent where it is now.

Govie Fed Stat, DC (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:11 PM)

You can count Majority Whip Clyburn on Tuesday!

I only wish that I could be in St. Paul Tuesday night!

Roxie, Nashville (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:11 PM)

Thanks Chuck...I was wondering what the new delegate number was..
I guess we really do have a nominee now..
Highly doubt Clintopn is going to see 195 sd's come flocking to her..
I say to you sir...You'll be getting a break soon...

Godesscon2001 (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:12 PM)

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