The new math

Posted: Saturday, May 31, 2008 8:31 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Out of the day, Clinton got 87 pledged delegates to Obama's 63 for a net of 24. (52.5 to 33.5 out of Florida; 34.5 to 29.5 out of Michigan.)

Obama is now 62.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination with a new magic number 2,118. This is when the nine (cut to 4.5) Edwards pledged delegates (out of 13) in Florida, who have pledged to vote for Obama, are factored in. Without them, Obama would be 67 away.

Clinton, on the other hand, would need 238 delegates.

NBC NEWS has also now added officially 5.5 more superdelegates for Obama and 7.5 for Clinton (half of 8-6 for Clinton in FL; and 7-5 for her in MI).

Assuming Clinton and Obama split the remaining 86 delegates at stakes in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana evenly (43 apiece), that would put Sen. Obama 19.5 away from clinching the nomination. (So, for all practical purposes, he would need about 20 superdelegates to hit the magic number.) Clinton would need 195.

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: 1712 to 1587
SUPERDELEGATES: 327 to 293
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: 16.5 to 0 (adding the 4.5 from Florida)
OVERALL: 2,055.5 to 1,880

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Way to go Obama! On to the nomonation!

Teamsters for Obama

larry Chillicothe oh (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:13 PM)

The math is the math...I don't know how Mr. Ickes could possibly think taking this argument any further is going to get Hillary the nomination.

The only thing the Clinton campaign is going to do by kicking and screaming all the way to the convention is produce a divided party who loses the Presidency in November AND who never forgets WHY it was lost.

I have heard it said by the pundits and know it is true for me--for this situation--Democrats don't forgive very easily and we don't like losers.

Well Hillary, you only became a loser in many of our minds when you began acting like such a poor one. If we lose the general election--I for one wouldn't even consider you for the local school board--and I damn sure wouldn't vote you into the White House!

Dawn, Justice, IL (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:13 PM)

OOOops sorry...wasn't Chuck...apologies Dominico..
Thanks to you for the update...so used to C Todd doing it..

Goddesscon2001 (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:14 PM)

Now can we all stop talking about the math? It's over. It's Obama. if HRC won't admit it after June third, a big group of supers needs to go over to Obama and HRC needs to give a nice speech about how hard she is going to work to fire up her supporters to join her in getting behind him to defeat McCain. Obama can give a nice speech about how fabulous HRC is and what a fine President Bill was and we can concentrate on making sure McSame never becomes Commander in Chief or the guy who picks our Secretary of the Treasury, Defense, State or anything else, especially Supreme Court and other federal Justices. We've already had nearly eight years of clueless at the helm and can't afford one more day, much less one more term.

Felix, CO (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:14 PM)

If we don't unite, we will end up with the failed policies of the republican party, I am tired of $4.00 gas, tired of the increase in the cost of living, don't do anything stupid and vote against Obama to proof a point, Hillary and Obama have the same (well very similar) stance on a lot of the issues, McCain doesn't, he has even admitted he knows nothing, NOTHING about the economy, if that who you really want for the presidency in this time of recession?

Democrats unite (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:15 PM)

A fair outcome. The DNC should have made the decision to compromise on FL and MI a long time ago. As a registered Independent, I found the entire spectacle today to be an embarrassment to the Democratic Party.

My husband is a Republican. We both plan to vote for Obama in the fall. If somehow he is not elected due to an ongoing fight to the Convention, we will never -- and I repeat -- NEVER vote Democratic again.

Just Me (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:16 PM)

The democratic restored my faith in them today. They gave the voters of MI & FL a voice at the convention and still managed to render a fair compromise. My hats off to this committee.

Christi D Carlsbad, CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:16 PM)

Let's hope that after the final votes are cast the superdelegates will announce their decisions, surely clinching it for Sen. Obama, and the general election can proceed. If Sen Clinton or her followers foment trouble, or continue the kinds of insiduous statements that undercut the nominees legitmacy--such as the powerful but false popular vote argument--then we should prepare for four more years, at least, of Republican Rule. If by chance the Supers throw the election to Sen. Clinton, then likewise Sen Obama and his followers must swallow their bitterness and fight for a Democratic President.

John Katz, Burke, VA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:16 PM)

Obama is almost home , i think we well now see a BIG move on the part of the supers to shut this thing down for good.

James ,Oregon (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:18 PM)

I think every vote must count from Florida and Michigan, their voices must heard.!!!!

Akber A. Kassam. Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:19 PM)

all delegates not seated = all votes not counted.

as a lifelong democrat, i will not vote for a nominee of a party that refuses to seat all the delegates.

as soon as the convention is over, i'll be changing my registration to independent. this is a travesty...and from a party that wanted all the votes counted in the 2000 election. i can't associate myself with hypocrites.

upset in illinois (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:19 PM)

Can you please explain to me why HRC took this to the RBC. Does she wish to expand her popular vote total; or perhaps her bargaining position within the party and thus some position within the new administration? It does not seem that she has accomplished either by her defensive posturing. Can she proclaim that she is the popular vote leader and hope to gain something from that assumption? Or, is this simply a Harold Ickes ploy? Thank you.

Prajna, Eureka, CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:20 PM)

We need 7.5 SD's between now and tuesday to put Obama over. We need Obama to claim tuesday night that he's the nominee. We're counting on you SD to come through for Sen. Obama.

Obama '08 & '12

Richard, Chicago (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:21 PM)

I'm happy to see that the committee finally came to a conclusion regarding this issue.

Now we have a solution which makes one side of a party upset at the other. Many angry enough to vote for the other party. As a supporter of the war, the Bush administration, tax cuts and as a lifelong Republican, its a great sign for the fall!

Divide and Conquer - McCain 2008!

Ron O'Donnell, Washington, DC (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:22 PM)

Hey all you Clinton supporters, IT'S OVER!!! Get over it you bunch of sore losers, especially all you petty and vindictive older white women.

And don't even tell me that all you Clintonazis are going to vote for McBush. This is not a game. Just because you lost don't throw a temper tantrum like a 2-year-old. The future of our country is at stake.

But, I guess if you like war and more deaths of our great American soldiers in Iraq, then go ahead and vote for McBush. If you like watching the rich get richer while low and middle class families struggle to make ends meet, then go ahead and vote for McBush. If you think a guy that can't tell the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite is going to make us safer, then go ahead and vote for McBush. If you think our country is on the right track and should "stay the course," then go ahead and vote for McBush.

But, if you think this country needs to change course, then please, I implore you to vote for Barack Obama. After all Hillary Clinton will be voting for Obama in November. Let go of all your petty vindictive anger and vote for the candidate that will bring real change to the White House. Vote for Obama.

Change You Can Believe In (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:22 PM)

So it comes down to this. After all the crying and bickering by the Clintons they finally get what they want and (SURPRISE!!!) THEY'RE STILL NOT HAPPY!!!!! Honestly, I don't think anything will make old Hillary happy short of Obama saying "Even though I'm ahead in states won, delegates, superdelegates and in the polls, I'm going to bow out because you are clearly more qualified to be President than I am." Yes, Bill Clinton was a great President who did great things for the country. But just because Hillary is his wife doesn't mean that she'll have the same type of administration. She thinks just because her last name is "Clinton" that the nomination is her birthright. IT'S NOT! Hillary, listen to me carefully honey: THE MATH DOES NOT WORK IN YOUR FAVOR!!!!!! Bow out while you still have a shred of dignity left and let Barack Obama do all of America a favor and do away with John McCain in November so that America will once again find some respect in this world.

Obama Suupporter from Kentucky (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:23 PM)

It has is time for a show of democratic force. I call on all democrates to now say we do have a presumptive nominee. We are going back to the White House. We no longer have to be enemies anymore. Let us bring a strong progressive new generation into the process of running this country.
Obama 2008

Flow, Asheville, North Carolina (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:24 PM)

No matter how it's sliced, at this point Clinton has lost this. She needs to face it, accept it, stop all the manuevering to try to take it some other way than actually winning--and let the Party coalesce around her opponent. If she takes it further, to the Credentials Committee, the Convention, etc. she still won't win--and will screw her future in the Democratic Party. She still needs the Party in order to have a political future and if she hurts Obama's chances this fall in the General, she will have no future.

Get over it, Hill. You fought the good fight but lost. Be a big girl about it and get behind the winner--or risk looking more like a poor loser than you already do. And, by the way, it isn't because you're a woman. A woman is Speaker of the House now--and she was elected that by a male-dominated Congress. Men will vote for women, but obviously not enough will vote for you. If Nancy Pelosi were running for the nomination, she would have been a far more attractive opponent and likely would have won. So don't cry that you were beat as a woman, you were just the wrong woman. He has to compete as a black man, and that isn't easy either. You ran and you lost. Now be a big girl, stop your nonsense, support the nominee and figure out how you can salvage your future. It's going to take some work; the first step is to start acting like an adult.

Gene, Boston MA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:24 PM)

Thanks for keeping us updated on the correct numbers. It does appear that this race is over and that the Rules committee has done its job.

Let's go after McCain!

Ronald, American living abroad (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:24 PM)

The fix is in, the party luminaries want Obama more than they want a fair process. There was absolutely no basis in logic for this decision; it's the same old party, a bunch of gutless wonders.

S.P. Wiliams, Lakewood, CO (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:26 PM)

I am somewhat happy about the results of today. I think once again Senator Obama has shown his true colors. He has compromised, given more than was needed all for party unity. HRC has also shown her true colors by refusing to accept the MI delegate apportionment and wanting NO votes for Senator Obama. Need I say more!

I am thankful this debacle will soon be over. It won't be forgotten and Senator Obama is to be commended for his character and
ethical standards.

Jaquelin Pearson, San Rafael, Ca. (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:26 PM)

Well, the politicians wanted to push the primary forward because they...supposedly...wanted to draw attention to the issues that are important to the state. Well, Michigan is now the center of attention...all of it negative. Why don't we just change our motto to the "Party That Won't Follow Its Own Rules State." How will Independent Voters view the Democratic Party now?

Superdelegates...end this now! Either way! As quickly as possible! Hopefully, we can heal this rift that Michigan has caused before it's too late.

Al, Detroit, MI (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:29 PM)

whatever you are dreaming

yelena (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:31 PM)

my heart just broke as I saw members of the same party divided before the world, I am sure much to the delight of the Republican party.

People we have to remember what the bigger issue is here.
Gas prices $4.00 per gallon
4500+ dead in Iraq
home forclosures all over the place

we have real issues here and the Democratic seems best positioned to solve this. If we do not get it together we will throw it away and have at leastmanother 4 years of this nightmare!

Margo (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:31 PM)

Heh heh! It just keeps getting better. Bye bye Hilarious :-)

Monroe twp, nj (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:32 PM)

i just commented no zero comment

yelena (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:33 PM)

I hope this acts as a wakeup call to those superdelegates that didn't know what time to set their alarm clocks...... The time is by Tuesday night..... The future of this party begins today. The changes we've claimed we've been waiting for will only happen if we're willing to make an effort to achieve them..... For the undeclared superdelegates, that effort should be simple. Simply pledge your support so we can begin the next stage of making change happen.......

PT, KENNEBUNK (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:36 PM)

Heh heh! It just keeps getting better. Bye bye Hilarious :-)

Monroe twp, nj (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:36 PM)

What is this? Some kind of shell game?

iammom (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:37 PM)

anything to keep obama out, just keep changing the rules and maybe the brown man will go away. we just keep stalling for time and someone will come up with a plan to rid us of the horrible thought of having a brown man in office, oh the humanity...right?

cheri, nashville, tn (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:38 PM)

From the math it appears baring a miracle Senator Clinton has no chance of gaining the nomination. The talk of Hillary Clinton willingness to accept the VP slot is without merit. Her past behavior and pronouncements clearly suggest she ha noregard fo Senator Obama. Why would Senator Obama select someone that considers him an Elitist, someone who is guilty of DISRESPECT (Boy meet in Ohio for a debate)REDICULE(Angels will come down wave a wand and change will occur)Someone who has belittled him(John McCain and I has past the Commadering Chief threshold and my opponent has a speech)

If Senator Obama rewards Senator Clinton's bad behavior with the VP spot, his judgement will be seriuosly questioned.

Mark Palmer,Effort,PA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:40 PM)

Mark Palmer,Effort,PA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:41 PM)

Well I guess we wait another week to see what rabbit Hillary tries to pull out of the hat ....Hopefully it will be a concession speach.Wow how bout the woman from Kentucky with that no unity without hillary rant...I mean I relate to Florida and Michigan voters that want repersentation...but jeeze she looked like a militant racist ...with that rant.Really come on woman Kentucky already had it's say and quite fairly.Makes me wonder what her real beef is.Anyway I trully hope we as Party can get past this and unite towards a common goal of winning the general in November.And no all members of the equal and opposite sex I'm not sexist ...that woman scared me as much as any right wing nut job be they male or female.

Greg Morris, Birkenfeld ,Oregon (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:42 PM)

How shamefully the Clinton supporters acted...democracy isn't a trough you drink from, it's a privilege and a right. What would any of you do if you had to truly make a stand based on reason and responsibility?

Why do the humans with the most rights squander them on such personal idiocies. This wasn't about candidates or individual votes, it was about a process of respecting those who followed a political parties rules for electing a nominee according to proportional representation.

Why did none of you protest or raise your voice in support before your personal favorite candidate was losing? Shame on you all.

citizen (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:44 PM)

I pray that today's sad and unfortunate events can be healed before the convention. This whole event today just demonstrated to many Americans how divided and weak the Democratic Party is right now. I hope that Dems can get behind who ever the Democratic nominee for president is. All Americans must come to realize that John McCain clearly equal 4 more years of George W. Bush and his failed policies. We cannot afford another Bush term...WE CANNOT AFFORD ANOTHER BUSH TERM!!! All Dems need to keep repeating this to yourself.

Former Republican for Obama, Columbia, TN (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:45 PM)

What is the popular vote count now? How is this gonna work?

Piper (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:45 PM)

This election is going to bring on change all right. McCain will win, successfully govern from the middle and destroy the myth that there are only two points of view, the right or the left.

Now that would be a change most Americans could believe in....and will vote for.

campdog (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:46 PM)

It was a sensible compromise. Now let's rally behind our nominee and win the White House back in November!

A. Kline, Nevada City, CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:47 PM)

How come Clinton supporters cannot read or count?
Simple math.
She did a good job on convincing them to believe she was ahead in the popular vote,the ones from Michigan we cannot count. I guess.

lea,fredericksburg,va (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:47 PM)

hillary is drinking wine and riding in a car caravan in Puerto rico, this is not a predictgable path to the presiodency,

WAKE UP AMERICA

Hilllary is done for, defeat McCain and Move On

gene eagle bear,tombstone az (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:49 PM)

THE PEOPLE PRESENTING THE FLORIDA & MICHIGAN CASE FOR HILLARY WERE PATHETIC.

ALL THEY DID WAS 'CRY & MOAN' -'CRY & MOAN.'

PATHETIC HUMAN BEINGS.
-----------------------------------------------------

CRY & MOAN FOR POOR HILLARY ... (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:52 PM)

It really bothers me that our votes don't count in this election, I was always a believer that the popular vote meant something here in American, but as I have gotten older I have had to eat the fact that it is the delegates and superdelegates who really have the say and shame shame It is not power to the people and I am finding that my vote doesn't count in the presidental election.

Hank Gosslin Duval WA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:54 PM)

Denver? Denver? is this the only slogan Clinton's backer can think of? The supporters shouting during the RBC meeting were an absolute disgrace -- middle age women and men acting like juvenile delinquents!. So Obama's supporters are suppose to be young gen-Ys and gen-Xers?, at least these young people have the forsight and intelligence to know what is at stake -- $10 gas, a war that has no end with John McSame, and a healthcare and economic plan that essentially says "My friends yer on yer own now don't git sick". To think that these looney supporters shouting at the RBC meeting can walk the streets unchaperoned is a travesty to society. Harold "@!&*" Ickes and his foul mouth need to be scrubbed with a bar of soap.

Sunnyside, New York, NY (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:54 PM)

Clinton can not win so she should be nice and join the rest of us working toward the General election. It would do wonders to improve her image.

Obama 08

twinoftwins, WA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:56 PM)

ok, no more crying from the Hillarybots. It was apparent from the demeanor of a lot of those party leaders that they were sick of Clintons selfish inability to concede for party unity.

thank god this is almost over so we can finally sit back and watch the big O tear McGramps a new one.

H, Stockton CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:56 PM)

Hillary is riding a car in a caravan in Puerto Rico
Bravo, this is desperation, and maybe 300 drunken votes,Yeah lets get on to the serious debate and defeat Bush

Gene eagle bear tombstone, az (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:56 PM)

Chuck: thanks for breaking this down for us!

My question: what is the official POPULAR VOTE count?

Sidney in Boston, MA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:57 PM)

Chuck:

Can you verify the portion of the agreement where Obama was guaranteed the two add-on delegates for Michigan, which would give him another full delegate (i.e. 2 x 0.5 delegates) for his total.

Thanks,
Don

Independent Don, CA (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 9:59 PM)

Wow today made me proud to be a Democrat.No we are not a perfect Party but from what I watched today,we're as close as it's get's.Taking into account of course that we always seem to shoot ourselves in the foot.Fumble in the fourth quarter on the one yard line with 5 seconds left while being down by 3.Attack each other more than the GOP.Have more factions than the shites in Iraq and Iran.Might loose to grandpa in November.But even with with all that I still love everyone of you...If I'm gonna be burned at the stake I guess better a Democrat should do it.Oh and my silent Prayer ....Please good people elect a Democrat in November ....not for me but for Raelyn Kelly Smith my grand daughter who will enter this world and this Nation some time in July.Peace all.

Greg Morris,Birkenfeld,Oregon (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 10:00 PM)

I hope everyone is finally happy! The democrats really need to get started on November.

Obama will clinch it next week, and he should pick Wesley Clark as his running mate.

Jay Bird, Newport Beach, Calif (Sent Saturday, May 31, 2008 10:00 PM)

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