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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Who's dropping out?

Posted: Monday, June 02, 2008 4:21 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Christina Jamison, Ron Allen and NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli
On the plane just now flying from Rapid City, S.D., to Sioux Falls, S.D., campaign spokesman Mo Elleithee maintained that Clinton is not getting out of the race tomorrow night -- or anytime soon.

Elleithee said as long as there is still no nominee (and incidentally he wouldn't say the campaign acknowledges a delegate number at which there will be a nominee), the senator will be making the case on the phone to committed and uncommitted superdelegates and uncommitted delegates.

He repeatedly said there will be "an ongoing dialogue" with committed and undeclared superdelegates.

Clinton has no public schedule beyond Wednesday, where she speaks at the AIPAC conference in Washington, D.C. Tomorrow, Clinton will spend the day at home in Chappaqua, N.Y. doing local radio in MT and SD, as well as making political calls. Bill Clinton, campaign aides believe, will be home with her, as well as daughter Chelsea.

When asked about reports the campaign has invited top donors to Tuesday night's celebration, and whether that signals an end to the campaign, Elleithee said donors are invited in every state the night of the primary and this is nothing new.

He insisted the e-mail to advance staff offering flights to New York or home was just to give them an option as "this phase of the campaign" wraps up.
 
So what's next?
 
The campaign plans an aggressive outreach to undeclared superdelegates, including many currently committed to Obama. Both Hillary and Bill Clinton are expected to be working the phones for most of the day. 
 
The campaign says it does not expect there will be a nominee after tomorrow night, and when asked about the magic number 2,118, Elleithee indicated that number may change depending on what Clinton decides to do about Michigan.

“She is, in the coming days, going to be aggressively courting superdelegates and unpledged delegates," Elleithee said, adding emphatically that there will be no nominee after tomorrow.

What if Obama reaches 2,118 and declares victory? The answer is basically that Clinton will deal with that when and should it happen.
 
The mantra is that Clinton will fight on especially for superdelegates until there's a nominee. But with Clinton hedging on whether she'll appeal the DNC's Michigan decision, it's unclear what she thinks actually determines when there's a nominee.
 
The spokesman wasn't clear about how an appeal would take place, saying check with the DNC -- perhaps only when the Credentials Committee is formed, and that's perhaps eight weeks ahead of the convention.
 
No word on future travel plans despite being asked numerous times about various scenarios like traveling to key battleground states, or whether she'd be focusing solely on McCain.
 
As Clinton said herself yesterday, "It’s not over until it’s over," and she's a person who takes things one day at a time. And as of now, insisting she's still determined to win, and believes she can.

There was a lot of parsing on when -- or if -- she will acknowledge there is a nominee, given that she has reserved the right to appeal the Michigan ruling, and her statement that superdelegates can change their minds, that it's not over until the votes are counted.

When asked, based on all that, if one could only infer that she wants only a convention vote to determine the nominee, and he demurred. Asked what happens if the leadership of the party (Pelosi, Reid, et al.) come out and end it, he said that many times in this campaign, people declared it over.

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Comments

Hillary seems to be holding her considerable amount of cards (her voting bloc of older white women) until she can leverage them for something she wants.

I wouldn't expect Hillary to concede until the convention. She wants her voting bloc behind her until then, so she'll give no hints of conceding to Obama until the convention. That way, she and Bill don't have to help Obama until the general election.
Man, I'd love to be a fly in the phone when superdelegates (even ones who might actually wish to vote for her) have to give her the big kiss off on the phone.  Gee, Mrs. Clinton, yes, uh huh, you won the big states, yes, uh huh, you won the popular vote, yes uh huh, oh yes, the big bad Rules committee was sexist and didn't vote in your favor, uh huh, oh yes, he just has a small 150 delegate lead and, oh yes, you're right, Bill will be there too.  I'll take it under advisement.

A little reported jewel occurred at Saturday’s ‘Democratic Party Rules Committee Hearing.’

DONNA BRAZILE, one of the DEMS most politically experienced African-American women, with impeccable academic credentials, and a history of fighting for VOTING RIGHTS & INTEGRUTY (she is the Chair of the Democratic National Committee’s Voting Rights Institute) made a chastising rebuttal to HARLD ICKES, Hillary’s representative and strategist.

DONNA BRAZILE POINTEDLY TOLD HARLD ICKES THAT “TRYING TO CHANGE THE RULES IN THE MIDDLE OF A GAME OR AT THE END IS COMMONLY CALLED ‘CHEATING.’”

Donna Brazile 'hit the nail' on Harold Ickes head and a stake through Hillary's heart. For all intents and purposes, Donna Brazile told Hillary, Bill and the rest of the Hillary Brigade, on national TV, that they were “cheats.” HILLARY’S CASE WAS STONE-DEAD AT THAT POINT.

WHEN WILL HILLARY SUPPORTERS LOOK HONESTLY & CRITICALLY AT HILLARY?
_______________________________________________________________________________
Man, I'd love to be a fly in the phone when superdelegates (even ones who might actually wish to vote for her) have to give her the big kiss off on the phone.  Gee, Mrs. Clinton, yes, uh huh, you won the big states, yes, uh huh, you won the popular vote, yes uh huh, oh yes, the big bad Rules committee was sexist and didn't vote in your favor, uh huh, oh yes, he just has a small 150 delegate lead and, oh yes, you're right, Bill will be there too.  I'll take it under advisement.
Sorry, but I'm having flashbacks to "Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan," with Hillary as Ricardo Montalban, as she detonates the Genesis device.

"From the last, I grapple with thee. From hell's heart, I stab at thee. For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at thee."

Please, Mr. Spock -- I mean, Senator Obama -- stay out of the radiation chamber!

Thiis is ridiculous.  NBC News now has Clinton winning the popular vote?  How did you count Maine?  How did you count Washington?  This is unreal.
Per your tv programming today you entertained whit women stating they would not vote for Sen. Obama. What makes them think Black people would vote for Hilliary? Let's not forget one very important item; Hilliary WOULD never have become "first lady" were it not for the assistance of the Black vote.
She is out tomorrow night, period.

http://www.politivine.com
I guess they must be confused on what the meanings of "You lost", "it's over", "go away" mean.

YOU LOST
IT"S OVER
GO AWAY
When her campaign funds start to dry up because no one is donating, then what is she going to do?
Per your tv programming today you entertained white women stating they would not vote for Sen. Obama. What makes them think Black people would vote for Hilliary? Let's not forget one very important item; Hilliary WOULD never have become "first lady" were it not for the assistance of the Black vote.
According to USA Election Polls ratings of the pollsters:

American Research Group is, on average, 11.5 points off the actual results with their polls. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have continuously under-represented the support that Barack Obama draws. In South Carolina, they predicted that Obama was up by 3 when he won by 28%. In Delaware they predicted a race that was within the margin of error when Obama won by 10 points.

At this point, you should be skeptical of any poll by ARG that shows a close election because Obama most likely is performing a bit better in the polls.


Back to me now -  ARG clearly polls against Obama and now that it is the last primary would not be very reliable to even equal its own poor performance.  Dont' get too upset.
If you give the Nom to obama I will write-in Hillary and urge all of her supporters to do so. Good luck with the AA and under 30 voters. Maybe they will actually show-up this election.  
the answer is Ron Paul. Ron Paul is dropping out.
As a Senator Obama supporter,
kudos to Senator Clinton for keeping on.  Now, after tomorrow night, IF he gets to the required 2,118, then I think she should heed Tom Vilsack's direction and pack it in.  She can suspend her campaign, and should anything happen where all of a sudden the Super D's feel Obama absolutely can't win, then she could reapproach them about the possibility of switching over to her at the convention.  But absent that, once he gets to the required number, she should back off and start attacking McCain.  After all, if she were somehow to become the nominee, quite honestly I can't fathom how that would come about, she'd want to already have started in on him.
And if everything happens as it should, with Obama coming out the convention with a full head of steam, then her bashing on McCain would only be something that helps the Dems.
Reasonable, objective and hopefully does not "irritate" the irascible Clinton supporters.
It's an interesting dilemna. It's clear that Hillary is the better candidate to defeat McCain, but she seems to be more and more disliked by the liberal wing of the democratic party. It seems that liberals would take an extreme risk of losing the general election rather than choose a candidate that is slightly (very slightly) less liberal than the other.
Thomas in Phoenix

Well said!
Sad to say, it won't be over anytime soon - the Clintons are trying to wheel/deal their way in whether anyone wants them or not. And i HOPE THAT OBAMA DOESN'T HAVE SEN. CLINTON AS VP - THIS COUNTRY WILL GO TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET IF THAT HAPPENS. Not only that, after comparing the assaination of Bobby Kennedy of the 60's how positive it was - it seems to me that that would be an underlying threat to Obama to watch his back....the Clintons will stop at NOTHING to get what they want, when they want it!!! His credibility AND her obvious lies, shady backroom deals, inconsistent flip-flopping on the Senate floor, as well as being a TERRIBLE role model for our children, who see that, "If you want what you want, when you want it, then it's all right to break the rules", will spell certain defeat for the Democratic Party and the DNC. Not to mention that, if by some miracle she's the Democratic Presidential candidate, ALL hell will break loose with the Africian American vote - which amounts to nothing more than using the Black people again for their advantage. The Democratic Party and the DNC have lost their credibility long ago......if the Democrats get elected, this country's going to hell in a handbasket!! I'll stick with McCain or Ron Paul...at LEAST I know WHAT they stand for, not for crazy, insane messes like Obama and/or Clinton!!!!
Democratic Party leaders believe us that we have had enough of this divisveness in the party. Please end this as soon as possible. Be it Hillary or Obama, I am tired of this primary and hopefully Hillary will not take this to the convention. This is not about Hillary or Obama; it's about the American people.  Please end this NOW!
Also Hillary PAY YOUR BILLS! I read today that she owes a college in Indiana $55,000.00
Anne/Ohio (Sent Monday, June 02, 2008 4:49 PM)
----------------------------------------------

You read it on a blog, stupid.
Paul, indianapolis (Sent Monday, June 02, 2008 3:56 PM)

Keep drinking that Kool-Aid Paul.  If you keep serving it, we'll start believing it.

OMG - you Hillary supporters are pathetic.  The only way you can make yourselves feel better is to insult the supporters of your competitor.

NEWSFLASH - the primary is about the delegates, the GE is about the electoral college.  Your "girl" is NOT ahead in any metric that actually matters.

Now, go back in your mom's basement and finish your Cheetos.
"can't believe obama expects votes from michigan when he took the extra step and dropped out of their race.  talk about wanting the silver spoon.
phishmelt (Sent Monday, June 02, 2008 1:28 PM)"


[sigh]

Do you live here?  If not, then I suggest you shut the h-e-double-hockey-sticks up, as you have NO idea what you are talking about.

Because I do not engage in battles of wits with unarmed people, I'm not going to explain this to the learning impaired for the 10,000th time.  Sufficient to say, he has no worries here in MI.
"Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water..."(Cue music from "Jaws")
The blood thirsty, cold blooded predator is back.

I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!
She needs to talk to Dr. Phil...sooner than later!
It seems to me we should get a bit more scientific about this superdelegates stuff here in the home stretch. Worst case scenario Obama get 15 pledged delegates Tuesday. That leaves him 27 delegates away from clinching, and he'll need to find those among supers plus remaining Edwards delegates.

Of the remaining supers there are some that we know where they stand because they've effectively said so (Donna Brazile, Jimmy Carter, James Clyburn) or because Obama has a majority of pledged delegates (Nancy Pelosi, her daughter). How many such folks are there?  (We can likely add in Levine and Baucus).

It'd be helpful if news organizations listed off these near certanties so we could how many of the superdelegates Obama needs of those whose preference is truly unknown - and then we can decrease that number as theybreveal themselves.
GO AWAY CLINTON! YOUR LIKE A REOCCURRING NIGHTMARE! WE'RE DONE WITH YOU NOW!!
Hillary can teach Huckabee a thing or two about how to go away.  I wonder though, why is Hillary so desperate, this isn't like the Bush election or anything, she can't honestly think she has a chance.  How sad and pathetic to see Hillary first hand, get down on her knees and beg.
Why does the media keep talking as if she has a chance.  Do you really dislike her so much that you want to see her make a fool out of herself.  

Clinton = Brittney Spears in politics.  A train reck the media love to cover.
Why is HRC waiting to "see how it goes?" I thought she was ready on day one!!!!!!!

(President elect does not need to be ready on day one by the way, they have nearly 60 days to get ready...


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