First thoughts: The big upset
Posted: Wednesday, June 04, 2008 9:24 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Pulling off the big upset: After 17 months, 56 contests, more than 35 million votes, and an exclamation of some 60 superdelegate endorsements yesterday, Barack Obama clinched the Democratic presidential nomination, ending the most significant and entertaining primary race in American history. And as MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann observed last night, perhaps it was only fitting that both Obama and Clinton split last night’s contests in Montana and South Dakota. But there was no mistake that the Illinois senator, who will be the first African American to be a major party’s presidential nominee, was the big winner. While he stumbled crossing the finish line -- whether it due to playing prevent defense and focusing on the general, Hillary finding her voice as the underdog, or simply a matter of geography and the nominating calendar -- Obama pulled off arguably the greatest upset in American political history. Indeed, the weight of the history is palpable, and the fact he’s an historical first is a big challenge for McCain in the fall. If someone like Obama has never gone this far before, then how does the GOP paint him as just another typical liberal politician? Obama's mere presence in the race represents a change. This may be why McCain spent so much time last night comparing his change to Obama's change. McCain's best shot at this is making the case that Obama's the wrong change.
 |
|
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on the first day of the general election and takes a look at the geography of Obama's victory.
*** "
What does Hillary want?" While Obama was last night’s big winner, yesterday’s No. 2 story of course was Hillary Clinton. The day began with a report that she would acknowledge Obama clinching the nomination. Then the Clinton campaign pushed back furiously against the report, calling it “100% wrong” and “not true.” Next came word of a conference call in which Clinton told New York congressional supporters that she was open to being Obama’s running mate. And finally, she delivered a speech in New York City that -- although praising Obama -- didn’t acknowledge his nomination and didn’t signal that she was giving up the fight. “Now the question is: Where do we go from here?” she asked last night. “Now given how far we’ve come and where we need to go as a party, it’s a question I don’t take lightly. This has been a long campaign, and I will be making no decisions tonight.” But what other decision can she make? Her speech, which came after the networks declared Obama the presumptive nominee, seemed akin to the losing football team remaining on the field after the game is already over and celebrating with its fans. As the
New York Times’ Nagourney puts it: “Like her husband, Mrs. Clinton has a way of becoming the center of attention even when the spotlight is supposed to be trained elsewhere.” That reality might make the prospect of her becoming Obama’s running mate more difficult than some of her supporters realize.
*** What’s next for Hillary? Per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, close advisers say that Clinton needs a few days to decompress and that she will be in DC tonight hosting an 89th birthday party for her mother, Dorothy Rodham, at the Clinton home. They also tell Mitchell that despite any disclaimers, she DOES want to be on the ticket. It is an issue they would have to explore face to face. No meetings now planned. Obama told her last night he would be available on her timetable. Why is she not conceding, given the reality that he has secured the nomination? A close friend and adviser said: "We were going flat-out until last night. We poured everything into winning South Dakota. Now she needs some time to decompress." Another said: "She knows she has maximum leverage right now." The Clintons clearly believe that Obama needs her supporters -- and that they can continue this dance for at least a few more days, despite pressure from party leaders to get it done.
*** It’s no longer her party: The next few days will be filled with Clinton political obits and many will focus on the strategic blunders of the campaign, including the decision to let Obama dictate the pace of the race (see those January '07 dueling Web videos); Mark Penn's focus on preparing Clinton for the general rather than realizing there was a primary; and glossing over the caucus states. But did Clinton ever actually have a chance? Think about this fact. Since February 5, she secured fewer than 40 superdelegate endorsements... 40! No matter what the polls said or what her margins of victory were in Ohio or Pennsylvania or West Virginia, the party leaders would not allow themselves to be swayed away from Obama. Perhaps the Clinton hold on the party was gone a lot sooner than some of us in the media realized. These folks were simply looking for an excuse to dump the Clintons. The inability to prevent Howard Dean from taking over the DNC or the Dems taking back Congress without the leadership of the Clintons may have been more significant in telling the story of how the Democrats kicked their Clinton habit. This may be Barack Obama's party now. But this ceased being the Clintons' party a long time ago. However, we only noticed this now. Seriously, if someone said to you 18 months ago that the Democratic nomination will be decided by the superdelegates, who would have you bet on under those circumstances -- Clinton or Obama?
*** Give that man a mic: On paper, doing what McCain did last night -- delivering a primetime speech on the final day of the Democratic primary, with several well-written barbs at Obama -- was a good idea. But in practice, it might have been a big mistake. We received numerous emails from even GOP sources, who weren’t impressed with the speech or that green background. Where were the people standing behind him!!??, asked one unaffiliated Republican strategist. The truth is, McCain just isn’t a podium guy. He needs the microphone in his hand and the ability to speak off the cuff. That’s his strength. And, ironically, it's Obama's weakness. While Obama has his share of challenges as we head into the general election, perhaps McCain’s biggest one besides the problems with the GOP brand is rising to the occasion to give a speech that tries to come close to what Obama can deliver. The debate negotiations between these two are going to fascinating, because McCain's going to want more off-the-cuff, town-hall formats; Obama will want a podium. The good news for McCain: There aren't multiple election nights where the country compares the two side-by-side. There are, at a minimum, four events: the conventions and the three debates. By the way, the substance of McCain's speech was very reassuring to many conservative reformers. They liked what they READ, but are they comfortable with what they HEARD?
*** Battleground watch: Now that the general can unofficially get underway, look for both campaigns to start their 25-30 state plan ASAP. In fact, McCain's been on the air with semi-significant spending in five states, including Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. How soon will Obama join him on the air in these states? And how many states will Obama advertise in initially? Will the buy be wide and far and include states like North Dakota and Texas. Or will he narrow his focus fairly quickly and simply expand to the predictable places like Colorado and Virginia in addition to the '00 and '04 battlegrounds?
*** Where we stand: Obama has picked up at least three more superdelegates since last night: from DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, New Hampshire Party chair Raymond Buckley and NJ Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Obama is ahead in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,743 to 1,641), Edwards’ pledged delegates (21-0), superdelegates (395.5 to 292), total delegates (2,159.5 to 1,933), the total number of contests won (33 to 22), and the non-Puerto Rico popular vote by 158,155 (17,449,889 to 17,291,734). Two notes: 1) we’re not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates, and 2) after Saturday’s DNC decision, we’re now counting Florida and Michigan as wins for Clinton -- but, per guidance from the DNC, we’re including Florida’s popular vote but not Michigan’s. More on the popular vote… If you count Puerto Rico, Obama still leads by 16,493 votes (17,571,347 to 17,554,854). The only measure in which Clinton leads in the popular vote is if you include Michigan. When you add those results and don’t give Obama “Uncommitted,” Clinton’s lead increases to 311,658 (17,883,005 to 17,571,347). Of course, none of our popular vote counts includes votes in the Dems Abroad primary, Guam, Virgin Islands, Maine, or Washington State.
*** The beat still goes on: On the first post-primary day of 2008, both Obama and Clinton are still on the campaign trail -- well, sort of. They both address AIPAC, the pro-Israel group. Obama goes at 9:55 am ET, while Clinton speaks at 10:25 am ET. This is actually Clinton's next best chance to begin impressing Obama for veep consideration. If Clinton can help Obama with his Jewish problem, then she can make a strong electoral case to helping Obama in states like Florida and Pennsylvania and solidify the ticket in New Jersey.
*** On the trail: Clinton has no other events on her schedule beyond her AIPAC speech; McCain is in Baton Rouge, LA, where he does a town hall, holds a media avail, and raises money before he goes to St. Petersburg, FL for another fundraiser; and Obama, after his own remarks to AIPAC, speaks via satellite to the Service Employees International Union conference taking place in Puerto Rico, and then he headlines a DNC fundraiser at a private home in New York City that will raise $28,500 per person for the party.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 153 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 230 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
