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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



The general: Turning blue states red?

Posted: Monday, June 09, 2008 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro

“Obama and John McCain don't agree on much, but they came together yesterday to reject an invitation from Mayor Bloomberg and ABC News to host a town-hall meeting in Manhattan,” the New York Post writes. “‘The offer didn't match up with our thinking,’ said Obama spokesman Bill Burton. Both presidential campaigns indicated that Bloomberg's pitch, which would give exclusive rights to ABC to broadcast the free-form debate, fell short in terms of reaching the number of voters they would want to target. Burton said they want a forum that would be open to any network and could be viewed in real time on the Internet.”

Don't miss this blue target list of states as listed by McCain manager Rick Davis: “Other potential Democratic-held targets for McCain's campaign include Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Delaware, Maine and Connecticut. While McCain often talks about competing in California, Davis said the campaign was ‘probably not going to commit a lot in resources’ to the state.”

He rules out California, but potentially rules in DE, NJ, ME, and CT. Interesting: Expect DE and NJ to stay, sort of, in the McCain battleground: Why? Both states share the Philly media market, and Pennsylvania is going to be a McCain target for the duration. As for CT, we'll see; it's an expensive state to target because of the New York City media market bleed, but if McCain's folks believe NJ is in play, then they'll move into the nation's largest media market and that will also help lift him in Connecticut. Maine shares some media markets with New Hampshire, so as long as NH stays in play, it's easy for McCain to continue flirting with ME. Plus, ME awards its electoral votes via congressional district, so maybe McCain could over-perform in the state's more rural 2nd District and steal one electoral vote from the Obama column. It's a similar strategy Obama's employing in Nebraska and the Omaha media market. 

Issue watch: Here's Time magazine: "There was always something slightly insane about No Child Left Behind (NCLB), the ambitious education law often described as the Bush administration's signature domestic achievement. For one thing, in the view of many educators, the law's 2014 goal -- which calls for all public school students in grades 4 through 8 to be achieving on grade level in reading and math -- is something no educational system anywhere on earth has ever accomplished. Even more unrealistic: every kid (except for 3% with serious handicaps or other issues) is supposed to be achieving on grade level every year, climbing in lockstep up an ever more challenging ladder. This flies in the face of all sorts of research showing that children start off in different places academically and grow at different rates. Add to the mix the fact that much of the promised funding failed to materialize and many early critics insisted that No Child Left Behind was nothing more than a cynical plan to destroy American faith in public education and open the way to vouchers and school choice."

"Now a former official in Bush's Education department is giving at least some support to that notion. Susan Neuman, a professor of education at the University Michigan who served as Assistant Secretary for Elementary and Secondary Education during George W. Bush's first term, was and still is a fervent believer in the goals of NCLB. And she says the President and then Secretary of Education Rod Paige were too. But there were others in the department, according to Neuman, who saw NCLB as a Trojan horse for the choice agenda -- a way to expose the failure of public education and 'blow it up a bit,' she says. 'There were a number of people pushing hard for market forces and privatization.'" 

FLORIDA: Good news for gamblers on the battleground campaign trail. You can now play blackjack at a Hollywood, Fla., casino.

With Dem fears about Obama winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College, look for this bill by Bill Nelson to end the Electoral College to become popular on the left. 

NORTH CAROLINA: The Raleigh News & Observer: Barack Obama stops in Raleigh today, planning to use a populist economic message and a hefty campaign war chest to capture North Carolina's independents, newcomers and Hillary Rodham Clinton voters. With Clinton out of the race, Obama will be starting his first extended trip as the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee. Supporters said his morning appearance at the N.C. State Fairgrounds will kick off a well-funded test of state Republicans' goal: an eighth straight victory in North Carolina presidential elections.”

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Chuck Todd ... you guys continue to under-estimate Obama.
You think that this is just a ploy to outspend  McCain. You have no idea still about what is happening in the country.
Clinton did not understand this .. and she paid the price.
The country is screaming for a CHANGE.
And John McCain is in the way .
This election will be a landslide victory for Obama.
Starting with North Carolina and Virginia .. then Colorado and New Mexico.
It is not clear to me yet whether FR is undersetimating Obama or trying to keep expectations low.

I realize it is a long time til Nov. but he is about change as never seen before and the strong desire for it amongst voters has me looking for him to do extremely well in unexpected places.  There will be fewer red states when the dust settles.

This man is going to change our world and the world outside our borders as well.   He will be favorably received everywhere and this will be good for America.

Reading world newspapers one can feel the desire for an America to once again be a shining beacon of hope and strength and for him to be our leader.
If Mcain thinks for 1 second he's going to win Oregon he may as well just back to the old folks home.....
You mean turning red states blue, don't you?

When Obama  knows that there are 50 states in the Union and not 60, like he said a little while back, maybe THEN he should run for president. No, I take that back, maybe he should go back to school.
Republicans are smart enough to never give a loser like Obama credit over a war hero like John McCain the Maverack.  McCain will win every state that isn't already run by liberals and their taxes which is what they and Obama are planning to do.
I wouldn't count on Connecticut for McCain. It is a blue state and will continue to stay to blue this state is very excited about Obama.
Virginia can be blue for Obama this time. We've won a Senate seat, shortly will win another, and the Governorship. We have a weak Republican party here now, it's time to move VA voters to Democratic this fall!
Yeah let's get rid of the Electoral College since it's so rigged.  Back when there were only 13 states and there were big population states like New York that could dominate the popular vote it made sense.  Now with 50 states it's just plain nonsense.  With the vast majority of states as winner take all it makes a mockery of the poular vote.

What a joke that "Bush Hugger" McCain thinks he's going to turn blue states red.  Better dead than red has been our motto, now we have a new red menace as democracy's enemy.  Barack Obama is going to turn many red states blue and is going to whip that grumpy old man.

Go Obama 08/12!
ABC has lost their right to broadcast debates! They botched the last one. I agree with Steve from New York. I don't think the media gets how determined the electorate is to throw out the old politicians. Questions about flag pins, old pastors...thats not where we're at this year.
When Barack ran against Hillary, Hillary did win a significant number of Hispanic, poor working class vote. You guys keep drumming that point home.  But the same dynamics may not apply when Barack runs against McOld. There are good reasons why various groups voted for the Clinton name.  But McCain will likely not do as well with these populations.  Lets wait a month, do some polling and see how the match-up between Barack and John fall out.  We may be surprised.  
Steve, amen to that.  Underestimating Obama and the main source; the American People!

We are not as divided as they think we are, we are sick and tired and tired of being sick and tired and we deserve better and McBush is not it!    
Obama has already changed some state colors, and will do so in November. He will accomplish that MUCH easier if Hillary is NOT his VP. She would make him appear weaker, & have a VP that has many famous quotes that happen be fat LIES.
McCain win Oregon?   Spend away, John.   we have exactly one major Repub figure here:  Senator Gordon
Smith.   As more of a 'Rockefeller' Repub than 'Bush' Repub, he will be re-elected.   But, his coat-tails will not be long enough to drag McCain to victory.
McCain has a shot in Jersey and Maine, though I doubt he does the others.

Jersey is ripe for a "anyone but the Democrat" cycle, after endless scandals for that state's Democratic Party.

Maine is a blue state? I thought it was pretty purple already.
No way McCain wins here in CT.  We're better than that.  Especially after people now see the error of their ways in re-electing that weasel Lieberman.
Eric Salinas, CA:
I agree! The Electoral College is an antiquated control mechanism. I live in AZ. I will vote Obama!
But chances are my vote wont count. I pray it isn't true. The Republicans in this state keep moving the districts around to favor their party. What a farce!
Guess we need to actively petition for abolishment of this unfair system.
Obama will certainly turn blue states red as the title indicates. The entire white working class rust belt will turn out in droves to vote against Obama. Hillary was troncing Obama in that area the last 3 months of the primaries. It will be more of the same for the general election. Obama is just not competitive in that area. We might even see places like Michigan and Wisconsin turn red. Pennsylvania is a foregone conclusion to turn red. New Jersey is a possbile flip to red state. This election will not even be close.
Reds v Blues....I vote in Virginia.  Have been a life-long Democrat.  Have never voted for a Republican presidential candidate.  I will this year.
Either I'll vote McCain or I'll vote "present"  but I know my duty is to make a choice and it will be McCain.
While McCain often talks about competing in California, Davis said the campaign was ‘probably not going to commit a lot in resources’ to the state.”
**************************************

McCain was joking right? Too funny. His campaign staff better schedule lost of distracttions for him, like 'paint ball', in order to placate that warmongering jones he's got.

McCain:  'Fight, fight, fight for California'!

Staff: 'But John, there is NO hope of winning there'!

McCain: 'I'll never surrender!  We will win CA with  
        honor, even if it takes a hundred yesrs!

Staff: But Senator, the election is this November.

McCain: Huh? What? Speak up Joe?

Just say NO to anything ABCNews proposes.  After their hatchet job with Gibson and Stephanopolis, I still refuse to watch them!
Obama will take CT and it won't be close.  McCain should save his money for elsewhere.  CT is solidly blue.  We have affluent towns which are liberal-leaning and we have working class towns which are solidly Dem.  Yes we have some GOPers in power but that's because there have been some gaps in quality Dems running for those top positions (and Rell has been pretty popular and has had some Dem-friendly policies).

It is still a very Dem. state.
Mary in Texas,

The white working class rust belt should ask themselves just exactly what McCain is going to do for them...it won't be much.  They may not like Obama (for reasons unknown to me, he hasn't done a thing to them), but its surprising that they wouldn't want to stand up for Dem. principles, esp. Dem. economic and social service programs which can directly benefit them.

Its a shame, but if they go Red then don't complain when McCain messes up the economy and they are hurting more year after year.
Mccain need retirement home, not a Presidency. Clinton supporters, just think who are thinking to vote for: old tired man who even look older then he is . My 86 old grandma looks 10 years younger the he is. And his ideas also very, very old. We sick and tired of Republican rule, so , people don't make mistake, vote for Obama
Lisa, New Britain, CT...OBAMA for President:

They may not like Obama (for reasons unknown to me, he hasn't done a thing to them),


Apparntly you missed the amount of disrespect Obama has shown for "Typical White People" and "Those people that hang on to their religion and guns in hard times". Obama comes off as a snobby elitist know-it all to the people in the rust belt. For a man that has done nothing in his political career, that position they hold seems justified.
McCain will win none of the New England/mid-atlantic states.  No chance.
ABC news hosting a debate?  No NO NO never again. Don't forgive on this one. Don't be stupid.  They didn't apologize and Stepinalotofit and Glibson still have a job there.
@ Lisa, New Britain, CT

I agree.  I have to laugh at the haters when they try to convince themselves that the GOP isn't going to get slaughtered this year.  For 8 years they've done nothing but lie to us.  They try to use fear and when anyone questions them they attack them as unpatriotic or having a "blame America first" attitude.

While these tactics might have worked in the past, the explosion of blogs, youtube, and other internet media has given the average person the ability to learn the truth.  And we see that truth... the GOP is about serving the select wealthy few by any means possible.

Mary in Texas, I have a question for you.. if this is going to be such a blow out... then why in the last Rasmussen poll for Texas was Obama in striking distance?  43% Obama, 48% McCain

The last few polls in Arizona doesn't even have McCain getting over 50%!  That's in his home state!

Oh... you mean its going to be a blow out in favor of Obama.  Ok, I agree with that ;)
It is time to graduate from the Electoral College.
Obama's theme song should be "Don't I turn those red states blue?"
I just love the backwards approach that Obama haters take.  It is obvious to me that some people get their information from sound bites: the context of Senator Obama's speeches in California and elsewhere shows no disrespect for "typical white people" and the people who hang on to their religion and guns, by a greater than 60% margin, said he was right and no disrespect taken.  

Mary Statnos, Carlton TX has about 70 residents per the 2000 census.  When you feel down, do you take solace in your church?  Do you (or your husband if you are married) own guns?  Do they make you feel safer knowing you have them?  Do you feel the economy is being good to you?  If not, are you blaming yourself for that or outside forces?  That was the point Senator Obama was making in his speech.  No disrespect, just reality.
Mary in Texas,

The position they hold may SEEM justified to them.  If they want to hold one remark in the hundreds of thousands said against the candidate, they surely can.  No one argues that point.

And each candidate has made remarks they regret, as you well know.

I am merely pointing out that it is likely that they are voting (should they vote GOP) against their economic interest.  They are shooting themselves in the foot.  Should they choose to do so, then I don't really want to hear them whining that they are hurting economically for four years if McCain should be elected.

"Done nothing in his political career"  That's an extreme statement.  Be careful, your bias is showing.

To FedUpDem:

How ironic...you say your duty is to make a choice, yet you'll cast your ballot for a candidate who, if elected, will almost ensure women lose the right to choose.

We Democrats don't need phony "dems" like you.  Go out and vote for at least four more years of Bush...but don't degrade true Democrats by referring to yourself as one--whether it's a "fed up" one or not.
Mary in Texas -

1st - the last time that voter segment was carried by Dems was Lyndon Johnson. They will probably never be carried by Dems again, without a Great Society being sold to them...

But - PA will be delivered by Rendell, just as he delivered it for Hillary.  WI is a no brainer for Obama.  He'll pick up some red states as well. NE is even possible of going blue/purple - if what I hear around the statehouse is true.

And for those rust belters who have been voting against their very own economic interests for the last few decades - why should anyone expect them to change now? They are not doing anything new!!

Since Obama is half a "typical white person" and was raised up by "totally typical white people" that old argument won't hold water.  It buys the racists an excuse - kind of transparent but they'll take what ever they can get.  Good for them. Let them keep voting against their own interests...they'll make themselves extinct soon.
Get real how many states did Obama win with real elections?  your canidate is in trouble he will not win the GE he can't event get HRC supporters to back him up.

McCain 2008
This is just the GOP trying to create a narrative that McCain has most of the country in play.  They're still working the Karl Rove "we make our own reality" dodge.  Fine, if they want to make their own reality the real thing will be that much more jarring when they have to face it in November.
Can't see McCain winning Washington after the hatchet job he did on Boeing.
Money is the mother's milk of politics and Obama will have the ability to out-spend McCain in every state that he wants to put into play. Not only that, the number of voters that will be added to the rolls for Democrats and the declining numbers for Republicans means it will be a landslide victory. Remember that the battleground state of Pennsylvania just went over 4 million Democrats as a result of this years primary. More and more states will continue to add to their Democratic rolls and these people will come out to vote. The Republican brand is like tainted dog food and the evangelicals will not come out for McCain like they did for Dubya. Obama will re-draw the map and the down-ticket successes will be bountiful.
Well, it will be interesting to see the McCain people show up for the ground game in Washington State . . . what are you planning to discuss with us in Seattle?

Surely, we'll welcome debate and civil discourse, but I'm really skeptical of the idea of flipping our state.  

Perhaps no one has shared with McCain how popular Obama is with us?  

Rumors of Michigan turning red are, I believe, exaggerated. Yes, our Democratic governor isn't very popular (for good reason) and the party leadership here is unpopular for the primary snafu, but while the Western side of the state will be in McCain's camp, there is a substantial voting bloc here from which we have yet to hear: African-Americans. Obama's name wasn't on the primary ballot, and any ballot with a write-in was tossed out, including absentee ballots. Adding in educated liberals in the major college markets and Detroit suburbs, plus union voters who might stick Democratic despite all this "rust belt" talk, and I just don't see Obama not winning the state in a landslide. The haters just don't have the numbers.
Frankly, I see Obama as being able to take ALL the States this Election, I think we are going to see an Overwhelmingly Blue Electoral map come November.  I am looking for a 67% win by Obama over McCain.
 The Reasons??
  One is the fact that Obama's message is one of Unity for the Nation, Not for the Rich Ruling Class to fill their pockets, like we have seen these last 7 years.
  Another reason is the War, the Republicans got us into this, Not just Bush, but the entire Congress and Senate Republicans gave their tacit approval by not investigating the OBVIOUS Flaws in the reasoning for the war, and the handling of the war, Why were there no investigations of where the money was misspent until there was a Democratic Majority in the House and Senate??  The Republican Party was keeping the Get-away car running for the Administration by helping to cover up their war-crimes for the main reason that MONEY by the Billion was rolling in to their Chief Supporter's Coffers.  They thought they were slick, but they just dont get how Quick the Internet is for passing any and all information and America has been Watching this Whole Time.
  Three...Obama is Young, only 47 yrs old, and much more in tune with the mindset of today's Americans, Not the Baby Boomer's Generation (which was represented by the Clintons) and definately not Post WWII and into Viet Nam.  McCain is too old and inflexible for today's type of decision making.  We need to have leaders that can think, accurately, on their feet, without being held captive to old, outmoded ideology.  In Otherwords, Neither Clinton, Nor McCain truly understand what America has Changed into in the past 5 years.  Bigger Changes than the Media has recognized yet.
  And Also, The Young folks of this Nation, having access to Ultra Fast information, and the resources to be able to fact-check on their own, have finally found someone who can and does actually speak For them, Not TO them.  America's Young (30 and below) have been bitter at the mistreatment of the Populace at the hands of the Government, and are plainly fed up with it, The Bush Administration has been so bad, on so many levels, that all it took was a catalyst, like a grain of salt into a hypersaturated saline solution will cause the salt in solution to crystalize, So is Sen. Obama at this time, there is such angst against the Republicans, on all levels, that America is rallying around him very solidly.
  Thus do I see a true Landslide of an Election, in Obama's Favor, 67% Obama, 19% Libertarian, 12% Republican, 2% Other

 Thus do I see the Blueing of America, I think that few, if any, States will be left solidly red...Is real easy to figure: Red = Mis-Spent Blood of our Military Heros= No Vote for Republicans

 Obama '08, '12  Together, Yes We Can!!


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