First thoughts: The economy, stupid?
Posted: Monday, June 09, 2008 9:22 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Is it the economy, stupid? For much of the primary season, McCain and Obama were known mostly for their positions on the Iraq war (McCain’s support for it and Obama’s opposition). But ask yourself this question: If the beginning of this presidential campaign had been framed by the economy -- and not Iraq -- would either Obama or McCain be their respective party nominees? Probably not. What's fascinating to watch is that both campaigns are dying for a debate about foreign policy, while neither seems comfortable talking about the economy. Of course, with the unemployment rate rising, gas at $4 a gallon, and the economy in what feels like a recession (even if the technical definition hasn't yet been reached), swing voters in this election want to hear more about their economic prescriptions since their opinions about Iraq seem set. Obama starts the economic conversation today in Raleigh, NC, where he kicks off a two-week “Change that Works for You” economic tour that will also take him to Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Tomorrow, meanwhile, McCain will discuss the economy when he keynotes the 2008 National Small Business Summit in DC. Here's a prediction: The candidate that bests convinces the public that he feels their economic pain will win.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on Obama and McCain moving to discuss economic issues and takes a look at the candidates' electoral map strategy.
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The back-and-forth: Per campaign spokesman Bill Burton, Obama in his speech today will discuss “the first part his economic vision for America -- his plan to provide opportunity to working families who are struggling and restore fairness and balance to our economy. He’ll also lay out the very clear choice in this election. It’s a choice between John McCain’s plan to continue four more years of costly Bush economic policies that have widened inequality and left our children with a mountain of debt and … Obama’s plan to provide relief to struggling homeowners, affordable health care and college for all, and a tax code that rewards work instead of wealth.” Meanwhile, the McCain campaign released this statement from spokesman Tucker Bounds: "While hardworking families are hurting and employers are vulnerable, Barack Obama has promised higher income taxes, Social Security taxes, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, and tax hikes on job creating businesses… Barack Obama doesn't understand the American economy and that's change we just can't afford."
*** The bounce: Two reasons to watch the national polls over the next few weeks. One, it will set the floor and ceiling for Obama and McCain. The McCain campaign fully expects the national polls to greatly favor Obama over the next few weeks (perhaps even as much as 15 points). Team Obama assumes something closer to 10 (though they wouldn't be caught dead saying that on the record). But the reality is that over the next few weeks, Obama SHOULD get a bounce as he's covered as the nominee. Two, the second reason the bounce is important for Obama is that it will determine the strength of his hand regarding Clinton as veep. If his bounce is tiny and his lead over McCain remains in single digits, there will be a lot of whispers from pro-Hillary circles that he needs her constituency. If Obama's bounce pushes his national poll lead into double digits, then he can more easily dismiss the idea of adding Clinton to the ticket.
VIDEO: Now that Clinton is out of the race, Obama turns his attention to the general election. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.
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The future may be now...: But we can't avoid noting the things we learned from Clinton's swan song, including a tour de force of how did she lose via
Sunday’s New York Times. Specifically what stood out to us:
Mark Penn's continued presence which included secret "told ya so" polling in North Carolina; the fact that Hillary and Patti Solis Doyle haven't spoken since she left (by the way, she's not the only longtime Clintonista we hear hasn't spoken to the candidate); Bill Clinton being "rude" to Jim Clyburn; Bill's belief that a popular vote victory would force Hillary onto the ticket; the fact that Hillary didn't personally start wooing superdeleates until March; and Bill boasting that Hillary did better in areas where he campaigned versus where she campaigned. Finally, we can't tell you how many shocked emails we received from Clinton folks who couldn't believe Mark Penn actually said money had more to do with her defeat than message. Then again, as another Penn watcher noted to us, he's now running his own restoration campaign.
*** McCain’s Evangelical problem? While much has been made -- based on Democratic primary exit polls -- of Obama’s perceived weaknesses among white working-class voters, Latinos, and Jews, not as much attention has been paid to McCain’s seeming shortcomings among a GOP bloc that was crucial to Bush’s win in 2004: evangelicals. Until now. Both a New York Times front-page piece and Bob Novak’s column today explore whether or not evangelical voters will flock to McCain the way they did to Bush and what that might mean to McCain’s campaign. In 2004, almost of quarter of the voters in that presidential contest were self-described white evangelical/born-again Christians, and Bush received nearly 80% of their vote. Despite opposing abortion and voting for conservative judges, McCain has had a complicated relationship with evangelicals (and dumping Hagee and Parsley probably didn’t help things). Then again, it’s hard to see that many of these folks voting for Obama. But what happens if evangelical turnout is lower than it was in 2004, and if McCain gets 60% of their vote versus the 78% Bush got? It's how Obama actually wins Southern states: combining a surge in black turnout with a depression among evangelicals.
*** Battleground watch: Periodically, when either Obama or McCain are in a particular battleground state (especially one that hasn't been in play for some time), we'll take an in depth look. Today, Obama opens his first major general election swing in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat since '76. Obama's campaign is determined to put this one in play -- they believe a combination of non-native North Carolina white voters plus a surge in black turnout will be the key to pulling an upset here. By the way, non-natives in many battleground states are going to be crucial voters and should be tracked extensively, particularly in places like North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, but we digress. Down the ballot in North Carolina, Dems appear surprisingly strong, despite a weak effort in recruiting a first tier senate candidate. Elizabeth Dole will have a real fight on her hands and once again, Democrats appears favored to own the governor's mansion. But keep this in mind, North Carolina was the only targeted Southern state in '92 that the all-Southern Clinton-Gore ticket failed to carry. Yet there are a lot of new voters in the state since then. Of all the new Obama targets, North Carolina is the one that will tell us whether there is such thing as a new Obama Democratic coalition.
*** Just asking: Is Obama really going to give McCain a week of the battleground TV airwaves to himself? It appears so... A few other extraneous questions: Can McCain’s campaign keep up its criticism of the press when the candidate doesn’t seem to have a problem with the press? …When will Obama and Bill Clinton have their own secret meeting? Bill Clinton is licking more wounds that he believes were directly inflicted by Obama… Who believes McCain will have more phone chats with Bill Clinton than Obama has with the former president? And who will be more prominent in Denver: Bill Clinton or Al Gore?
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Franken-ly speaking: It's basically officially: Ex-comedian Al Franken (but can you really ever be a former comedian?) is the party-endorsed candidate for Senate in Minnesota. His ascension was not without some pain, as the final few weeks of his endorsement campaign was dominated by rehashing in the media (stoked by the GOP) of some of his most bawdy and crude comedic pieces of the last 20 years. These hits have taken their toll on Franken's personal rating in the state, but Bush has taken a toll on GOP incumbent Norm Coleman. Given Franken's negatives, there may be no competitive Senate race in the country that is a better example of whether a campaign can trump the overall environment. If this is a referendum on Franken's values, Coleman wins; if it's a referendum on Bush, Franken wins. Here are two questions we have: Can Franken win on Obama's coattails alone? And will Obama appear with Franken at many events?
*** On the trail: McCain hits three fundraisers -- in Richmond, VA, Washington DC, and McLean, VA. Obama, as mentioned above, kicks off his “Change that Works for You” economic tour from Raleigh, NC.
Countdown to Dem convention: 77 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 84 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 148 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 225 days
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