First thoughts: That '70s Show
Posted: Tuesday, June 10, 2008 9:21 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** That ‘70s Show: It’s time to dust off those Foghat and Alice Cooper albums, bust out those “Saturday Night Fever” dance moves, and fire up that “Dazed and Confused” DVD because we’re … headed back to the 1970s. Yesterday, in his interview with NBC’s Brian Williams, McCain said: “Sen. Obama says that I'm running for a Bush's third term. It seems to me he's running for Jimmy Carter's second.” Later in the interview, the Arizona senator added, “I think this -- election is about change, Brian. I … think it's the right kind of change versus the wrong kind of change. Sen. Obama wants to dust off the old big government, high taxes ideas of the 60s and 70s that failed then.” Does McCain’s Carter/70s attack work? On the plus side, it’s a nice counterpunch to the McCain-equals-Bush attack the Dems have using for the past three months. Also, it’s bound to help with older voters, who certainly remember all the problems associated with the ‘70s (stagflation, oil shortages, hostage crisis). And as GOP commentator Jennifer Rubin notes, it might be persuasive with some Jewish voters. But just how many people remember a presidency that ended nearly 30 years ago? Indeed, not a single person under 50 was eligible to vote when Carter was elected to the White House. What’s more, the attack might play into Obama’s post-partisan argument that Americans want to move beyond the debates of the ‘60s and ‘70s. Obama himself was 19 years old when Carter left office. Still, it does give McCain a quick description for helping voters visualize a President Obama. Obama already has his word, "Bush"; McCain needs his. And while McCain may get clobbered among voters under 40, if he over-performs among voters over 60, he can offset those losses. Do remember, of course, that the Carter hammer was attempted in ‘92 against Bill Clinton who, arguably, had even more superficially in common with the ex-peanut farmer -- an unknown southern governor from a small state…
*** What does that mean about Bush? Lost in McCain's attack is the subtle admittance that Bush has become the Republican's Carter. While Democrats have accepted the fact Carter was a mediocre-to-bad president, have rank-and-file Republicans had their own come to Jesus on Dubya? Are they ready to accept that he'll go down in history as their Carter? That's the risk in McCain's attack on Obama: It works on one level, but if he chooses not to defend Bush's presidency and allows it to be painted as a failed presidency, will the base be comfortable with that?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at the "toss-up" states on the 2008 electoral map.
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Becoming Hillary: The most striking thing about Obama’s economic speech yesterday was that he sounded a lot like, well, Hillary Clinton -- at least the Clinton we saw in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and beyond. There was the focus on the middle class (“I'll use the money to help pay for a middle-class tax cut that will provide $1,000 of relief to 95% of workers and their families”). There was the dash of populism (“I'll make oil companies like Exxon pay a tax on their windfall profits, and we'll use the money to help families pay for their skyrocketing energy costs and other bills”). And there was the Clintonian theme of fairness (“We will save Social Security for future generations by asking the wealthiest Americans to pay their fair share”). One of Obama’s more underreported attributes has been his been his ability to grow and adapt as a candidate. What remains to be seen is whether Obama can own the issue of the economy -- at least rhetorically -- the way Clinton did from Ohio on…
*** McCain and the economy: While Obama fired the opening economic salvo of the general election yesterday, McCain gets his chance to respond when he addresses the NFIB/eBay 2008 National Small Business Summit in DC today. Per excerpts of his remarks, McCain will hit Obama primarily on taxes. “No matter which of us wins in November, there will be change in Washington. The question is what kind of change? Will we enact the single largest tax increase since the Second World War as my opponent proposes, or will we keep taxes low for families and employers?” More: “Another of my disagreements with Senator Obama concerns the estate tax, which he proposes to increase to a top rate of 55 percent. The estate tax is one of the most unfair tax laws on the books, and the first step to reform is to keep it predictable and keep it low.”
VIDEO: In a response to a question about a recent speech, Sen. John McCain said that he would not comment on his statement about “the press and their coverage or not coverage
*** Straight talk? Just asking, but has the Straight Talk Express not been all that straight with reporters recently? McCain told Newsweek that he didn’t criticize the media in his speech last Tuesday for overlooking Hillary Clinton’s attributes. "I did not [say that] -- that was in prepared remarks, and I did not [say it] -- I'm not in the business of commenting on the press and their coverage or not coverage." But he DID say it. However, it was a fairly minor thing, but it followed a controversy from two weeks ago, when McCain incorrectly stated that US troops in Iraq had been drawn to their pre-surge levels. When Democrats pointed out that McCain statement wasn’t true, he maintained that troop levels are down -- but said nothing of pre-surge levels. McCain's political strength comes from his honesty and independence, which has often gives him the benefit of the doubt. So why not own up to the fact that he misspoke? Of all folks running, the media are more likely to give him leeway on a misspeak here or there. Clearly, McCain didn't want to say that media shot about Hillary and he probably meant to edit it out. So he didn't, so what? It only becomes a deal if they deny the answer, right?
*** Vetting the vetter, Day 2: Obama, meanwhile, seems to have his own problem with veep vetter Jim Johnson, who reportedly received preferential loans from subprime lender Countrywide. The Obama camp responded by blowing off the story, according to Time. “This is an overblown story about what appear to be completely above-board transactions.” Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor also shot back, "It's the height of hypocrisy for the McCain campaign to try and make this an issue when John Green, one of John McCain's top advisors, lobbied for Ameriquest, which was one of the nation's largest subprime lenders and a key player in the mortgage crisis.” But these responses mask what seems to be a problem for the campaign. How much more is here with Johnson? As the housing crisis percolates in the background, Johnson was involved with many of the players involved in this so-called crisis. So even if he has committed no wrongdoing, he's at a minimum connected to folks who did questionable things. And then there is his role he played on some corporate boards involving executive compensation. But there's a larger point the GOP will hit Obama with on this one: If Obama claims he's going to clean house in DC of the folks who conduct business the “old way," then why is he doing business with a guy like Johnson who -- some might argue -- is the poster child of the old way to do business in DC. If there's a drip, drip on Johnson, can Obama afford to keep him in this high profile role? Will some potential veep candidates who Johnson could vet come out publicly against some of the things Johnson practiced in corporate America? This story's not going away...
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VIDEO: Author George Will discusses Sen. Barack Obama opening his general election campaign Monday in North Carolina.
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Super Tuesdays return: It's Super Tuesday on MSNBC, and we'll have a Super Tuesday every Tuesday between now and the Olympics. Today's focus is on the battleground states -- and it’s fitting given that both campaigns are starting to stake out their turf. The Obama campaign yesterday announced it will have paid staffers in all 50 states, claiming that will be a first in presidential campaign history. McCain, meanwhile, heads later this week to the Northeast, where he hopes to not just compete in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (natch) -- but he also hopes to over-perform in, say, Maine's 2nd Congressional District (steal 1 electoral vote) and New Jersey, the great white whale of Republican politics.
*** Get to know Missouri: Obama stumps in Missouri today, a state that some believe still should be a pure toss-up, while others (namely us) believe it's now a “Lean Republican” state that can be competitive (i.e. Democrats are guaranteed 48% but they struggle to get to 51%). Obama's neighboring state appeal should help him a tad (like it did during the primaries), but the state has had its share of racial polarization and McCain may over-perform in the Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs. The good news for McCain is that the state's not-so-popular Republican governor is not seeking re-election, so there's plenty of non-incumbent Republican "change" messages that will appear on statewide TV. Big Labor has never been ready to concede Missouri, even as both Gore and Kerry ended up pulling out of the state by mid-October. Will that happen again in 2008 or will Obama's large war chest mean the Democrats will not pull out of Missouri this time?
*** On the trail: McCain gives the keynote address this morning at the NFIB and eBay 2008 National Small Business Summit before heading to New York City to raise money. Obama has already been shadowing a nurse at a St. Louis hospital and holds a media avail there later this morning. And Cindy McCain visits a charter school in New York City.
Countdown to Dem convention: 76 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 83 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 147 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 224 days
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