First thoughts: Obama's bump
Posted: Thursday, June 12, 2008 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s Bump: Days after becoming his party’s presumptive nominee and receiving Clinton’s endorsement, Obama has opened up a six-point advantage over McCain (47%-41%) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which is up three points from Obama’s lead in April. Perhaps the most fascinating numbers are in the crosstabs, and some of the numbers will surprise folks who memorized every exit poll from the Democratic primaries. Obama leads McCain among African Americans (83-7), Hispanics (62-28), women (52-33), Catholics (47-40), independents (41-36) and even blue-collar workers (47-42). Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19). Meanwhile, McCain is up among evangelicals (69-21), white men (55-35), men (49-41), whites (47-41), and white suburban women (44-38). However, Obama has a seven-point edge (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it’s white women that usually decide the race. “If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election,” he says, noting that George Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004. The poll was conducted of 1,000 registered voters from June 6-9 (Clinton endorsed Obama on June 7), and it has a +/- 3.1% margin of error.
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VIDEO: NBC's Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses the new NBC/WSJ poll and the battle for the suburban voters.
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How a veep can help: So you are McCain or Obama, and you've decided our poll is the Rosetta Stone for figuring out what demographic groups you need to win the presidency. So what did you learn regarding your potential needs that could be filled by a potential veep? If you are Obama, there are two things that stand out: 1) a female running mate could certainly help turn around the narrow deficit you face among suburban white women; 2) a perceived old, competent hand on foreign affairs could go a long way to convincing white men that even if you aren't up for the job, you'll have someone on your team who is. If Obama goes the woman route, he may not have any chance of talking to these white men; if he goes the experienced white male VP route, he's hoping that women eventually come back to the Dems. If you’re McCain, meanwhile, there isn't much more you can do on the male front, but that potential swing voting bloc of suburban white women has to be tempting, meaning the idea of putting a woman on the ticket has to get more serious consideration on the GOP side, right?
*** The 200-pound ball and chain: We hate to sound like a broken record, but just how bad is the political environment for McCain and the Republican Party? Let’s start with Bush, whose job approval rating is just 28%, up one point from his all-time low. Then add this: 54% say that they’re looking for a new president who would bring greater changes to current policies, even if that person is less experienced and tested. By contrast, 42% say they’d rather have a more experienced and tested person become president, even if that means fewer changes to current policies. “The 200-pound ball and chain around McCain’s foot is George W. Bush,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter D. Hart (D). “Unless he figures out a way to cut it loose, he’s going to be dragging it throughout this election.” Newhouse adds: “Voters are not convinced that McCain represents the change they want and that he’ll be all that different from Bush.” Indeed, according to the poll, 48% say it’s likely that Obama will be real change to the country. Just 21% say that of McCain.
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VIDEO: VoteVets.org's Brandon Friedman discusses the reactions of U.S. troops and veterans to John McCain's "not too important" remark.
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If a tree falls in a forest...: But one of the other oddities of this survey is the improved outlook voters seem to have with Iraq, an issue over which the two campaigns engaged yesterday. By the narrowest majority yet, voters are basically evenly divided over the idea of troop withdrawal beginning in 2009 (49%) vs. waiting until there's stability (45%). That said, 54% still believe that victory in Iraq ISN’T possible, but the electorate appears to be a tad more patient on the issue. This should be good news for McCain who has been preaching patience. And it could be one piece of evidence why the Democrats -- who believe they got an opening yesterday with McCain's rather blunt assessment of the importance of withdrawing the troops -- could be overplaying their Iraq hand. But unlike 2005 and 2006, when Iraq was the driving issue dragging down the GOP and Bush, it now appears the economy has become the new anchor.
*** Three months wisely spent? One of the more talked-about debates in political circles is: Did McCain put his three-month head start to good use? Naysayers might find some fodder in the NBC/WSJ poll. In March, after McCain wrapped up the GOP nomination, his fav/unfav stood at 49%-27%. Later that month, it was 45%-25%. In April, it was 40%-30%. And now in our latest NBC/WSJ poll, it’s 39%-34% -- that’s a drop of 10 points in his fav rating. How did McCain, who had no one running a campaign against him during this time, somehow lose ground with the public? A one-word answer may suffice, as we mentioned above: Bush. But still, he should have been able to improve his standing some in this down period. Four months from now, he may view the period between April and June as a missed opportunity.
*** Congress' new low: The most underreported number out of the new NBC/WSJ poll is going to be Congress' job rating. A miniscule 13% of those surveyed approve of the job Congress is doing, compared with 79% who disapprove. Both are all-time records in this poll. But despite the relatively low standing in which Congress is held, the majority party is not being punished. Consider that in the generic congressional ballot: Democrats lead by a whopping 19 points, 52%-33%. Also, the Democratic Party has a fav/unfav of 43%-32%; the GOP’s is 28%-47%. So what gives? Our pollsters believe Congress is suffering from the overall negative view the country has from the country in general. How can you approve of Congress' job when you believe the country is headed in the wrong direction? More importantly for this exercise, why can't Republicans benefit? The other answer is Bush. Clearly, the country isn't happy with the president, but now they are angry that there is a branch of government that appears to be doing nothing about it either.
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VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses the resignation of Jim Johnson from the Barack Obama vice presidential search team.
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That didn't take long: One thing Obama is getting a reputation for is that when the going gets tough, throw that person under the bus. OK, so we just mangled two different metaphors, but it's amazing how unshocked politicos are by the news that Obama dumped Jim Johnson from the VP vetting process. It was a matter of when -- not if -- for those who have grown accustomed to watching Obama deal with drip, drip issues. Then again, in this hyper-charged, guilt-by-association political environment, this is something all candidates have done this cycle. Obviously, someone didn't serve Obama well on this front since apparently no one bothered to do even the quickest Google search on Johnson and his relationships with various corporate boards. So now what of the veep process? Johnson will likely turn over all of his work to Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy but neither have done this before. Holder, meanwhile, should expect a mini-frenzy on the Marc Rich pardon now that vetting the vetter is going to be an "in" thing to do for a few days. No word yet on if the Obama campaign will add a third member to the vetting team.
*** On the trail: McCain holds a media avail in Boston before heading to town halls in New Hampshire and then New York City. Obama continues his “Change that Works for You” economic tour in Kaukauna, WI before going back to Chicago for a pair of fundraisers.
Countdown to Dem convention: 74 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 145 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 222 days
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