Putting Obama's lead into perspective

Posted: Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:44 AM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Obama leads McCain by six points (47%-41%) among registered voters. While polls can't accurately gauge an election five months out -- after all, so much can still happen -- it's worth putting Obama's lead into this perspective: Bush never trailed Kerry in the 2004 NBC/WSJ polls that measured registered voters' preference for Bush, Kerry, and Nader. And Bush's lead was never bigger than four points.

VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell discusses the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the first that matches up John McCain and Barack Obama since the primaries ended.

Bush won that presidential election by three percentage points, 51%-48%.

Here were the NBC/WSJ trial heats from March 2004 (when Kerry pretty much locked up the nomination) to late October 2004:
March (Mar.6-8): Bush 46%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%
May (May 1-3): Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 5%
June (June 25-28): Bush 45%, Kerry 44%, Nader 4%
July (July 19-21): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
August (Aug.23-25): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 3%
September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%
Late October (Oct.29-31): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

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Comments

Obama is going to have an even larger lead once people really start comparing him and McCain on the issues.

If they do the joint townhalls, McCain might as well forget ever winning the election, as Obama will likely make him look pretty silly.

http://www.politivine.com

Politivine (SC) (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:53 AM)

To be safe, I think Obamam needs to be leading by at least 8 points in every state he needs to win because I do think there is the possibility of the Bradley effect taking place and knocking off 5 percentage points.

But NONE of these polls are tracking new voters and they will be going 70% to 80% for Obama and I expect that there will be at least 20 million new voters nationally this time around.

Mister Anderson (The Matrix) (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:55 AM)

None of these polls will matter when obama loses the nom @ the convention in August.

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:58 AM)

I see that mccant wants the women vote so I expect his wanting to send their sons and daughters to iraq forever or 100 years whichever first is the way to get their vote.

thats a fact jack (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:58 AM)

Once Obama picks Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate the polls will go even higher.

Joe Reed, Miami, FL (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:59 AM)

Can someone explain how these national polls matter for an electoral college based election. Please dont tell me its indicative or pshycological.

FA, Houston TX (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:02 PM)

Interesting...but of course, its electors that matter right.

And Bobbi's comment above is illustrative...I guess there's more than a few who still believe Clinton will be the nominee. Making Obama's lead at this point even more "of note".

Lisa in New Britain, CT (mourning our fellow Boy Scouts in Iowa) (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:03 PM)

I believe the Republicans have nominated another
Bob Dole. And you see how well THAT worked out...

JIM WHITTAKER, Hemet, CA (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:04 PM)

Obamalanche... Obamaslide... Obamanami... Expect a McCain succession speach on Labor Day.

Dave, NY, NY (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:05 PM)

Wow. Very interesting, indeed. Thanks.

We still have to remember that these polls don't capture the "new" electorate Obama is attracting, like young people without landlines, right? That would mean these numbers could be higher, but with the traditional electorate, Obama is still ahead.

Yeah! I will be disappointed in my country if it picks a warmonger for president. I don't want to send America's children to another unnecessary war.

Cindy Lou, TX (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:06 PM)

Big whooptisnot! I don't give a rat's hiney at this point. Let's see what the candidates have to say and vote for the one we think is best at the only poll that really counts - - in November.

Keith, American Fork UT (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:08 PM)

Can someone explain how these national polls matter for an electoral college based election. Please dont tell me its indicative or pshycological.
FA, Houston TX

===============

They don't. That's why they are stupid. It gives something for Keith and Crissie to yack about, not that anyone that matters is listening.

Prezel Wickmann-Todd, NYC (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:09 PM)

Bobbi:

You really don't understand how the primary/caucus system works do you?

Also, your rabid belief that the gas tax holiday would grant you a windfall? I saw that people explained that it would come to about 30 bucks, but more to the point is this:

We repair our roads with those funds, and if the funds aren't there, construction workers lose their jobs. I realize that may not be important to you and your family, but you have to assume that it is important to the people who do that work.

Perhaps you could spend the summer educating yourself on how we nominate our candidates and issues regarding the fuel crisis. You would be better equipped to cast a knowledgeable vote this fall.

sotiredofignorance (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:10 PM)

Bobbi, please keep posting, because we want you here in November.

Obama 08

Senator Oama has the nomination (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:11 PM)

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI:

GET OVER IT! He won. She endorsed him. ITS OVER.

Not only is he the nominee for the Democratic Party....he's the next President of the United States.

Better start getting used to that too.

Barack My World! (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:12 PM)

After looking at the breakdown of the polls - It doen not make sense to me that there is only a 6 point spread.
It show Obama leading in most areas by a large % but ends up with only a 6 point spread.

Hard to believe this poll is accurate.

sweetpea (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:15 PM)

Obama's birth certificate
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/12/11012/6168/320/534616

The National Review's Jim Geraghty, who (ironically) helped debunk the "Michelle Obama railing against 'whitey'" video rumors, recently wrote about a new set of rumors:

Those rumors include the claim that Obama was born in Kenya, that his middle name isn't "Hussein", but "Muhammad", and that his real name is "Barry" and not "Barack". The first and third are attempts to reinforce the claims that Obama isn't "American" enough -- the first because he wouldn't have been born in this country, and the third because he would've taken a perfectly good "American" name and rejected it in favor of a foreign one.

Rumor two, about the middle name, is just weird.

banko (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:15 PM)

It's good to see that the country is learning that the current incarnation of the Republican party is the same as voting for fascism.

fascism noun: a political theory advocating an authoritarian hierarchical government (as opposed to democracy or liberalism) it appeals to strident nationalism; and promotes suspicion or hatred of both foreigners and “impure” people within his own nation

It's time to come together for our country. Bush/Cheney have created a fascist state with corporations running our government. The Republican Congress has "borrowed and spent" us into an inresponsibly huge deficit, with the paper being held by the Chinese and some oil rich states in the Middle East, and McCain is willing to borrow even more.

It's time to join together to work towards electing a Democratic President with a workable Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate.

This time do something smart and vote for your wallet, vote for the economy, vote for the environment, vote for jobs, vote for America!

Vote for the smartest candidate in the race, a real leader (and no that's not McCain -- not by a long shot)

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.

Carol, Long Valley NJ (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:16 PM)

Dear American Voters,

Hon. Senator McCain and Obama, besides each having many attributes and characteristics. The critical differences between the two of these presidential presumptive nominees are as under:

1. Presidential "Temperament and Composer".
2. Little Washington "insider Versus outsider" experience.
3. "Vision and mission" for our nation future rather than past.
4. American policies, " first U.S.A Centric" than any other country [ ies ] centric.

In my professional opinion Senator Obama leads in all above qualities.

The need of our next movement and generation is a change. The Change in " past Washington and its Leadership". A change we can believe in and not the seductive, deceptive, and confusing slogan of "leader we can believe in" [? Effexor ?".

Our Greatgrand Nation has to address many present and future challenges and start with new clean "Slate and Senator".

God Bless America. its diverse people, and our Greatgrand Nation.

Our Greatgrand Nation is needs the CHANGE at every level and for long time.

I am sure Senator Obama with the help of Senator Clinton and her supporters, can deliver that CHANGE.

Please stay involved, stay engaged, and stay informed. Please do not allow any seduction, deception, and or confusion by some partisan media and leaders effect your vote [ Psychological Terrorism ]..

Yours truly,

COL. [retd] A.M.Khajawall
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas

PS: It is tragic, sad, and unfortunate that Hon. Senator McCain does not show " Presidential Temerament and Togetherness " to be President of our Greatgrand Nation in coming complex and critical time.

COL.[rted] A.M.Khajawall (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:17 PM)

Thanks for the tips guys. FYI I am quite well educated. Of course, I don't fall in line behind the LEAST QUALIFIED candidate, I must be stupid-or racist- or bitter. Keep it up guys.

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:20 PM)

How about we bring out the polls from 2000? Do they follow the same pattern or is this just an opportunity to cherry-pick data that works for your conclusion? 2000 seems like the more logical choice for comparison anyways, with the potential for another popular vote winner and electoral vote winner. And for all of the news about how this is a different election than any other in history, what do polls from previous elections matter, except to send shivers up Chris Matthews and many other pundit's leg?

Ben (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:22 PM)

Let's not get too happy yet folks. Be prepared for John McCain and the GOP to launch the nastiest attacks of all time once all internal polls show them that it is virtually unwinnable. Think like Sen. Obama, remember this is chess. Just play the entire match instead of hoping for a quick checkmate. We can not afford to get complacent because the stakes are too high. We need to remain focused on the issues, registering new voters, and showing why people should vote for Sen. Obama.

C.K. Steele Fort Lauderdale, FL (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:23 PM)

Way too early but its always nice to be in the lead. Will have to see how it ends up after O'not Obama gives the details of how he will create all those high paying jobs requiring no education or skills, just pulling out Iraq will lower gas at the pumps, how talking nice with terrorist and rouge dictators will make us safe, how raising taxes will boost the economy. The man certainly can promise hope and change. Other than pulling out of te war and losing all thats been accomplished, I'll bet you Dims are still unhappy without a good job 4 years from now. Try education to get ahead rather than counting on someone to give you something for nothin. Oh, I forgot, thats how the repubs think.

Larry J Clearwater FL (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:24 PM)

I watched the numbers during the primaries and as a rule with the exception of 2 or 3 states Obama got more votes than all of the Republican candidates together , does anyone think that all those people are going to all of sudden turn and vote for Mr. Mcbush? If you are one of those who believe this will happen, you are dreaming!

smj. ut (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:26 PM)

Bobbi, that would be sad news for Obama. Even sadder if he loses to McCain. So much for wasted efforts of promoting a nobody to somebody...

Dan Webster (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:33 PM)

None of these polls will matter when obama loses the nom @ the convention in August.

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI
-----------------------
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
can't....
stop....
laughing....
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Best joke all day.. Keep em coming Bobi!
whoooooooo.... ok.. i think i'm good now..

mud, any state, US of A! (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:33 PM)

Why is the media working so hard to get Hillary the VP slot? Every poll asks, " How could she help the ticket or do you think that she would help the ticket?" But I see no polls to illustrate the effects that other potential cndidates might have in November. For example, I would like to see whether adding Joe Biden would give Obama a boost with white men, etc.

Cindi in Louisiana (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:34 PM)

This is actually quite interesting. At this point, the biggest problem Obama is facing is figuring out how to handle the Michelle problem.

StageKid's Dissertation on Disillusionment: http://www.stagekid.com

StageKid (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:34 PM)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjGYb_KtAeg

Bobi,
look at this vid, really look at it, and tell me you are comfortable with Mccain.

The issues before us are far more dire than Obama vs. Hilary. This is our future, and the future of our army as well as our national and international security. I am sorry.. Mccain fails the "commander in Chief Test" :)

Mccain: I disagree with a majority of the American People.
Mcain: I said it, probably for all the wrong reasons.
...And when pressed further about why he said something that he knew was wrong in his heart...
Mccain(Paraphrasing): I said it for ambition

I think Obama's Rhetoric is overhyped sometimes, but let me use this line: "NOT THIS TIME, NOT THIS YEAR!"

F*** all that. "NOT THIS FRIGGIN CENTURY!!!"

Right, Bobi? Please? Maybe? just a little? Hmmmm?...

Dboy, Chicago (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:35 PM)

Cindi in Louisiana (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:36 PM)

Mark, how did you control for the Bradley effect?

Bruce, NV (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:36 PM)

We will have to see how his lead holds up. The Obamatrons cheer and jizz up just from hearing him utter "hope and change" Theres no details on how it will work but hes promised everything to everybody and its FREE! We will see where the Obamatrons are 4 years from as they blame someone else for not having a good job. Heck, Obama is just going to hand them out, no education or skills required. PS, if standing on an assembly line is skilled labor, then why can we teach the Mexicans to do the same thing in a week?

Larry J Clearwater FL (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:37 PM)

As a fervent Obama supporter, I do NOT trust Hillary at all. She is holding onto those delegates so that the superdelegates can change their votes at the convention after "something happens" to Obama this summer. Let me make it clear that by "something", I do NOT mean physical assassination, but rather political assassination. That is probably why she is broke; She is likely paying a private detective OVERTIME to find or to "manufacture some doodie" on him. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.

Cindi in Louisiana (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:40 PM)

I love Bobbi... (My wife, not that idiot that lives in Eau Claire.)

But I gotta admit, it is fun to have her around.

oldave, san diego (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:40 PM)

Too soon to tell, sounds like Obama is like HRC at the early phase of the Democratic race. Hope he does not stumble to soon.

Michelle, PA (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:54 PM)

Obama is ahead right now but the election is in 5 months it could be different.

That's it.

Chris, Brooklyn, NY (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:54 PM)

The polls cannot poll the people under 40 because they have cell phones. The polls do not reflect a true picture and because the young voters are for Obama, he's more ahead!

TJ (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 12:57 PM)

Thanks for the tips guys. FYI I am quite well educated. Of course, I don't fall in line behind the LEAST QUALIFIED candidate, I must be stupid-or racist- or bitter.
----------------------------
If you vote for McCain, I would choose stupid if it's multiple choice. I would never call anyone a racist. And as for bitter, I can't know that. But stupid is as stupid does.

Bobby, Chicago, IL (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:01 PM)

Wrong MSNBC, The shrub was not elected, he was appointed by the supreme stomach turning court.

justthinkinoutloud (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:02 PM)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

Look how blue Kerry slowly turns into red Bush by end of August 2004. I don't know what NBC/WSJ people were looking at but acoording to this Kerry's numbers in summer of 2004 were as good as Obama's today, if not even better.

Dawn, Austin (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:04 PM)

The battleground states tend to follow the national polls. As for the Number of electoral votes based on the latest polls for each state:
It's
Barack Obama - 303
John McCain - 235

Bobby, Chicago, IL (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:09 PM)

Mark, to truly put the poll in perspective, wouldn't we need to compare to 2000, the last time one party tried for it's 3rd consecutive term while the other had a competitive primary? Or 1992?

Bruce, NV (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:11 PM)

FYI I am quite well educated.
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI
****

But you write/spell/speak like a 12 year old. So you will forgive me for doubting 'net cred. But still, all the education in the world means absolutely nothing to a closed mind that cannot adapt.

DV, CA (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:11 PM)

I celebrate Facism and hold Mccain as the father of my Facism for he truly is our next chosen president.

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:13 PM)

I'd take it 90% likelihood if the election is only a couple of days away. For now, I lot can happen. Best advise for Obama-zombies is never to gloat too soon because it might be embarrasing if you lose in November.

Concerned Grandma from HI (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:14 PM)

Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI:

The only thing that makes you stupid is making uneducated remarks like you just did.

PS: The most "qualified" candidates are the ones who have gotten us to where are today. It's not experience if what you're doing is not working.

Barack My World! (Sent Thursday, June 12, 2008 1:22 PM)

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