The general: Obama up by four
Posted: Tuesday, June 17, 2008 9:27 AM by Domenico Montanaro
A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows Obama up four points over McCain (49%-45%) among registered voters. “But Obama still has some work to do to unite the Democratic Party. Almost nine in 10 Republicans now support McCain, while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.”
VIDEO: Newsweek's Richard Wolfe talks about which party- Democratic or Republican- is in better shape from the unity standpoint.
More: “McCain will be running into stiff headwinds over the next five months. Bush's approval rating hit another low in Post-ABC polling and now is 29 percent, with 68 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing -- 54 percent strongly. Among the dwindling number who approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 80 percent back McCain. Among the much higher number who disapprove, 26 percent support McCain. In general, 57 percent said McCain would continue to lead the country as Bush has and 38 percent said he would chart a new course.”
A Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll (conducted June 12-15, 2008 of 880 registered voters) also has Obama up by four points, 44%-40%.
And a national poll of Latino voters shows Obama leading McCain by the normal Dem v. GOP margin the parties got used to in the '90s. "The survey of 800 Latino voters in 21 states found that 60 percent planned to vote for Obama, compared to 23 percent for McCain, with 16 percent undecided. The poll, Latino Decisions, is a joint effort between Pacific Market Research and University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura. Barreto has previously overseen polls on Washington's gubernatorial race and state issues."
The AP's Alan Fram asks: "If Barack Obama's got so many issues going for him in the presidential election, from the economy to war fatigue to a national hunger for change, how come John McCain is so close to him as their race begins in earnest? Early polls suggest the contest is so competitive at this point largely because of how people view the personal qualities of Obama, the Democrat, and McCain, the Republican." Some of the factors: race, leadership and experience, ideology, likeability, political branding, the issues, President Bush, change, electricity.
