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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The general: Is Obama really up 15?

Posted: Monday, June 23, 2008 9:35 AM by Mark Murray

Newsweek released a poll that has Obama sporting a 15-point lead. It's the largest lead in any Obama-vs.-McCain poll to date. Will it be an outlier? An important point about THIS poll: "Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP."

VIDEO: Hardball guest host David Shuster and panel discuss the latest Newsweek poll in which Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 36 percent among registered voters.

We learned a lot about Obama's summer campaign plans in the Sunday New York Times. "Future commercials could run on big national showcases like the Olympics in August and smaller cable networks like MTV and Black Entertainment Television that appeal to specific demographic and interest groups. He is also dispatching paid staff members to all states, an unusual move by the standards of modern presidential campaigns where the fight is often contained to contested territories.”

More: "Free from the constraints of public financing, Mr. Obama’s budget for the rest of the year could exceed $300 million, campaign and party officials have said. But his fund-raising slowed in May, when the campaign raised about $22 million — almost $10 million less than in April and a large decline from the record amounts he was taking in earlier this year. The decline was evidence that he might have to invest substantial time at fund-raising to match the levels he set in the first quarter this year."

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Finally First Raed! This NewsWeek poll is HUGE! A 15 point lead and it's only June! Not good news for McFossil. And they haven't evena had their first debate where he will look even more senile! WOW! If this holds up, the GOP is in serious trouble! Love it.
15 Points! The GOP and McClain better start taking Obama seriously.  Obama has the Vote of most young Americans!!

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Newsweak? They probably did the poll by walking around their own office cubicals. Then maybe they called the msnbc staffers, you know, to get a different viewpoint. I'd trust moveon and the dailykos numbers more then Newsweaks.
Snippets in time...
These are lies that show nothing  about the "silent majority" voters..
McCain has Nixon's voters...
He's not a crook either....
The 15 point difference reminds me of those huge leads he had over Hillary in some states that evaporated when the actul primaries were held.

My take however funny it may sound is that Newsweek like Time for that matter is taking sides and knows many in the black community will buy this story and decide voting is worthless in November since he's already as good as home and dry. Guess who will be coming to dinner instead of Obama (and Spencer Tracey may be very happy with this choice) - McCain!
Obama is proving that he is " a typical politician" and a lying one at that.
Nafta, Campaign finance, Fisa...

I would say spending the campaign's money on Michelle's makeover is pretty low also.
The lead of 15 points is actually low... Look for Obama to open 20 - 25 point leads by August.  D.
It really doesn't matter how Obama is doing with the young voters--large voices but they never show up to vote.  If Obama gets in get ready to empty your wallet to fund the lazy....
It's still early but it's about time that polls show that Barack Obama has a commanding lead.  People are tired of the tyrants in the White House and we don't need another unlucky incompetent fighter jock ruining our military.

I'm laughing so hard at the repugnant ones whining and crying about Barack opting out of public financing.  At least he's not so decrepit at raising money that he needs to beg for money from us taxpayers.  Barack isn't going to waste $84.1 million in taxpayer dollars the way his beggar opponent will.

Go Obama 08/12!
I think Obama did the only thing he could with the 527s lurking in the background.  Why is none of that mentioned?  Also, I believe last month was low time because things are just beginning to heat up.  With Hillary Clinton on board starting this Friday, things ought to improve.  I know my husband and I will continue to give our 25.00 a month and I'm sure there are others who feel this is totally necessary.
And I can tell you why Obama's fundraising "slowed in May" and will continue to slow.  I signed up on the Internet and gave them my email address.  I am now being bombarded every few days with spam requesting donations.  It won't be long before the Internet fundraising approach dries up as a result of these tactics.
Cnn's Poll of polls shows only a 6 point lead for Obama...46% for Obama, 40% for McCain, with 14% unsure. While I would love for Newsweek to be right, its a bit extreme.
I doubt he's really up 15, but seems clear he's got a lead and seems to be extending it in the state by state polls.
I love the fact that Senator Obama's "worst" fundraising month matches Senator McCain's best month- thatis a WONDERFUL problem to have! :)

Obama/Biden '08/'12

P.S. I also love the way that all polls showing anything bad about Senator Obama are always TRUE, but anything showing something good are QUESTIONABLE! lol

The truth is, all of the polls are suspect, and we should all know that by now. But the news media has placed a HEAVY emphasis on polls showing "trouble" for Senator Obama . . . wonder why that is?
Ah helllloooo!  If McBush was running against Kung Fu Panda, I would bet on the Panda.

I don't see how the republicans can fix this mess they have created.  They are not taking responsibility for their actions and they have not apologized to the American people for the failures so far.

Why give them another jab to continue to throw democracy and the economy to the wolves.

I want someone to ask the republicans who are surrogates for McBush, why do they feel they should get another go at it?    
Newsweek has always seemed a little biased toward Obama. The other polls do not reflect the same results.It is still very early in the season to be calling this a win.

As he slowly moves to the center, he will likely lose some supporters. FISA and independent financing could really play against him in the coming weeks.

For many, the realization that he is just another politician will likely come to a head this week.

Just a little advise to enthusiatic first time voters...don't count your chickens before they are hatched. Sadly, many of us have thought we had previous elections in the big only to come up short in November.
Bush and Cheeney are white collar gangsters.
Bush should be impeached and put in jail, along with
Cheeney. What they have done to this country and the world is unbelievable!

It's the Bush regime!!...that's all....
sicking....


"McFossil"......i liked that one...he's a complete idiot as well.....another war monger.

Let the rest of the world fight it's own  wars....
no more aid to other countries....they dont' care about us, they just WANT OUR MONEY!!!!

bda
It is not surpreising that he couldn't raise more in June. But I am sure he will be able to raise more whenafter the convention. I am surpreise that he is investing larger amount where he is already strong.
He should invest mor on the places wher he is weakl like rural area's
I'm glad to see Senator Obama totally engaged in looking for solutions to the Nation's problems and talking about partnership with America's people. Like many other Americans, my family and I are really struggling at the gas pump, to buy medicine and food. The mortgage, rent and utilities are all that we can afford before the paycheck is gone. We have to make our trips count, running errands on the way to and from work. We pack our lunches instead of going to the local fast food restaurant because it saves money. People in my neighborhood have either already lost their jobs or are afraid of being laid off. Home foreclosures have overwhelmed us. I'm an Obama supporter, but even if he becomes President of the United States he has some daunting tasks ahead of him. We can solve these problems together.  But it will take all of us in collaboration and cooperation putting our differences aside for the survival of our Nation. Obama 08
THEY ONLY SURVEYED BLACKS, YOUNG WHITES TRYING TO BE HIP HOP AND CANT EVEN UNDERSTAND THE LYRICS, AND ALL THE WHITE LADIES THAT HAVE PURCHASED BLACK TOYS AND TRYING TO GET A FANASTY FULFILLED.
To be clear:

Newsweek Nationwide survey, oversampled groups based on census demographics.

1,010 adults, age 18+, and 896 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: June 18-19


Plus or minus 4% means at worst Obama is up by 11, at best he's up by 19.

Don't toy with this being a silly kid's survey.
  I love Obama's explanation that he has to have lots of money to defend himself against the 527s.  He looks like the wimp that he is.  And why is it it's acceptable for him to bring up race in this campaign?  Can you imagine the yelps of self-pity if anyone else did that?  
  Remind me which party is running an attack ad right now.    Is it the 'nasty and vicious' GOP?
Um... does no one here study either there statistics or their history?

ITS JUNE, FELLAS!  THE ELECTION IS IN NOVEMBER!

A 15 point lead, even IF Newsweek used scientific methods, is largely irrelevent, except if Newsweek is trying to skew the public perception.

Personally, I don't care which one wins - one is an old crook, one a young crook.  6 of 1, 1/2 dozen of the other.
The poll may be a bit on the high side, but Barack will continue to enjoy some positive numbers.  As time goes on, the positive energy of Obama and the lack luster energy of McCain will reveal itsels.  With each debate, Obama will improve.  In addition to being smarter, Obama is friendlier, more likeable. Also, if the Libertarians get on...45 state ballots, that too will hurt the GOP.  

What I am really interested in seeing are the state polling results, expecially from the "swing" states.

I am also watching Iran and the possibility that Bush will Bomb Bomb Bomb   Bomb Bomb Iran.  That could impact the voting.  
It is of great concern if Obama has a 15% lead!  We should be concerned that his lead is not much, much larger.  Did we forget that McCain was the 2nd choice of the Republican party in 2000?  Did we forget that McCain was second choice to the worst president in recent history?  If we thought Bush was better than McCain, then HOW BAD IS McCain GOING TO BE?   Pretty scary if you ask me!
Wow! Newsweek didn't call me to ask me what I think! Wonder how many millions don't get that call. I think polls are about as useful as a electric car with no batteries. Wait until election and see what the $5 a gallon gasoline determines. Obama's ethanol companies will only add to the high prices. We'd better begin drilling or in 5 years we will be paying $11 a gallon. Check the videos of the thousands of Chinese autos sitting in a gas station line waiting for their share. We are getting ready to lose 1 million from Argentina to the Chinese. I'm gonna vote for energy, McCains oil,coal,& nuclear verses Obama's ethanol.
I want to know why nobody at MSNBC is pointing out McCains newest ad where he actually alligns himself with President Bush on energy.  If this guy is so lacking in judgement to do something as rediculous as to tout Bush's energy policy I pray he doesn't become President.  I actually LOVE the commercial because I wasn't voting for him anyway but it is probably the dumbest political ad that I've ever seen.  Keep em' coming McCain!
Newsflash: Democrats had a record breaking turnout during the primaries. George Bush isn't just "disapproved of" across America, he is LOATHED. John McCain has quioxically chosen to adhere to most of Bush's positions. I swear, the news media doesn't interview regular voters very often. The pundits keep saying that poll was an outlier, but everyone I know is voting for Obama.
Barack Hussein Obama is a leftist liberal product of corrupt Chicago politics who hypocritically preaches all kinds of platitudes for others but in his public life has failed to demonstrate with his own actions.
What happened to his "Old Uncle" Rev. Wright? Dumped!  His church of 20 years? Dumped!

A real steady guy. He will do and say whatever it takes to get the prize. The history of his political rise in Chicago is ugly. His record in the Illinois legislature and later in the US Senate contains absolutely nothing but a record of doing what is politically expedient. Look up his countless "Present" votes.

Obama is a product of Old Line Politics. Change America Into what? Judge a man by his actions not his words.
Dukakis and Kerry both had big leads also.  The media has put these polls out for decades and has been wrong every time.  They once said Hillary was unbeatable. Think for yourselves people---your to smart
Look, it's people like bda and his comments that fuel the democrat party.  

Please, get informed before you comment on this.  If you don't like Bush, fine.  But to make comments that "he (Bush) just wants our money is not only uninformed, but very idiotic.

Look, the facts of the matter is that Obama just wants to federalize everything from healthcare to savings accounts.  

Question:  How do you pay for that?  
Answer:  The American people need to brace for the largest tax increases (roughly $6,000 for a family averaging $60,000/yr income) seen in a very long time.

So, looking at it that way, ask yourself, who wants our money?  Please,  keep your hate mongering to yourself.

And yes, Obama is Carter all over again, we will have stagflation, a bloated government, and extreme ineptitude.

Look at the facts, not blind hatred, which seems to drive most democrats now.
Lisa NY: Newsweek has always seemed a little biased toward Obama.

I guess that's like your little sister saying she's a little pregant.
Polls-shmolls. Who cares-can we move onto the more pressing issues of the day...PLEASE!
Obama... McCain...

WHO CARES?!

We're still going to war with Iran.
Dream on Democrats!! Obama has proven he is truly the Manchurian Candidate.  We now know he has been taking money from the Ethanol industry (today's New York Times) which most likely translated into his caucus win in Iowa.

He has desecrated the Presidential Seal for his political advantage.  He is attempting to suppress all opposing points of view - stating that is an attack against "unity."  And any opposing view that does make it through the press is called - "racist."

Aside from all the Obmamaniacs that blog on this page, most Democrats and Independents I know are throwing their support to McCain.

Oh, and I forgot to tell you, I'm from Massachusetts - we were intimidated into voting for Barack's mentor - Deval Patrick, and I'm here to state his administration has been an utter disaster.

We had 16 years of Republican Governors in Massachusetts - a liberal? state and after Patrick I can asure you it will be a lifetime before another Democrat wins the Governor's office here.

If I wasn't so concerned that an Obama Presidency would not completely destroy this country, it would almost be worth it to have him elected ensuring that NO De,ocrat will win the White House again in my lifetime.

Jimmy Carter II - no thank you!
Chuck,

You guys know better than anyone that a poll can be skewed to gain whatever the desired results are by the questions, sampling size, and sampling make-up.  I can't believe that Newsweek isn't at least 8 points high in what they are showing Obama leading by.  Also let us not forget what many of the primary polls reflected before election day, and usually they favored Obama much greated than the final results.  Just food for thought.
Newsweak is a leftist rag of a magazine. Gone are the days of unbias news reporting. Shame on Newsweak for protraying itself as a voice of truth.
Frankly, I'm somewhat surprised at this First Read. MSNBC is clearly in McCain's camp, and loves the guy--like most of the rest of the media. This story must have slipped by the censors.
The American people are smarter than poll numbers.  I would not trust BO on so many levels.  Where to begin - oh, maybe the anti-white, or maybe the anti-semite, or could it be the lying.  If you follow BO, you could become a republican - and I am an indepent!

McCain 08'
15 % ? So what if the polls are skewed. Mc Cain has no moral authorities. Mc Cain can’t close the gap  at any time. DAVID ANDERS TEXAS (Sent Monday, June 23, 2008 10:04 AM)
THEY ONLY SURVEYED BLACKS, YOUNG WHITES TRYING TO BE HIP HOP AND CANT EVEN UNDERSTAND THE LYRICS, AND ALL THE WHITE LADIES THAT HAVE PURCHASED BLACK TOYS AND TRYING TO GET A FANASTY FULFILLED.
============================================

Where are your values. It appears you have a poll fantasy of your own.
=========================================

Thank goodness the American people have come to their senses.I look forward to having Obama being our president next January 20. This contry is sick and tired of Bush ? Cheney ruining our great constitution.
First Read... Obama need not worry about money. There's 1.5 million of us and by the end of the fall there will probably be about 2.5 million. If he needs money, all he has to do is ask.
Now it is a 15 point lead?  Kinda reminds me of the slam dunk victory predicted for Kerry on election day '04 based on exit poll data derived from the same crowd, most of whom have no idea what they want, or why.  They just know they hate Bush.
Bonnie Crawford Rex GA - It's admirable that you are belt tighting in tough economic times. But, how do you think gas prices will be affected when Obama, your candidate of choice, raises taxes on the oil companies?
Why is it so unbelievable that Sen. Obama is ahead by 15 pts according to Newsweek? I heard Pat Buchanan on Morning Joe giving his usual barely muted bigoted views and doubted the authenticity of the poll. Thank Goodness Joe was absent and Barnacle and H.Ford, Jr. was there or I would have had to turn the channel.

If Obama is not up by 15 now, he will be soon because Sen. McCain has flip flopped on practically every issue and his Straight Talk Express is in the ditch-----upside down.

Obama/Biden 08/12
go OBAMA go!!!!!! we don't need grampa in the white house!
There's one reason for gas prices going so high and I think that it has allot to do many upper or upper-middle groups of individuals. These individuals are buying or giving their children and grand-children calls to drive to high school. This may not sound like much but if you add this process to each family by 1 auto (and some have 2 or 3 autos), the amount of fuel consumption greatly increases. I begin to look at the school buses and they are empty.  The cars these kids are driving looks better than mine and I work everyday.  We need a leader who addresses this issue and many more. Instead we seek more oil so we can just use it up!!!!Some complain of taxing the rich, it does not seem that they have a leg to stand on. When this country is in trouble, we forget to look below our nose for the resolution.
IF YOU HAD A LIST OF FRIENDS LIKE OBAMA HAS, WOULD YOU BE TRUSTED TO HOLD OFFICE IN THIS COUNTRY. GIVE THIS A LOT THOUGHT BEFORE YOU COMMENT.  RABID MUSLIMS AND TERROISTS ARE NOT SUPPORTERS OF OUR TYPE OF GOVERMENT. THINK ABOUT IT.
I subscribed to the Newsweek magazine for 20 to 30 years and endured the biases for all those years and then I didn't want to read their biased reporting and stopped my subscription.  Now, they have the gall to have their representatives: Alter, Wolfe, etc. appear on TV as impartial reporters.  Their hypocrisy is appalling.   As stated by one of the above posts, their poll was probably conducted among Newsweek staffers.  
Two things you need to think about with this NewsWeek poll...

1)  It is VERY early in the campaign season and the polls are subject to change...and may change in either direction...

2)  You can make polls and statistics say whatever you want them to say regardless of your interview poll...

Let me say that I am, by no means, a big fan of McCain, but at this point, I can't say I would vote for Obama.  This has nothing to do with being Republican or Democrat.  I have my issues with most politicians.  In the end, it is going to come down to a debate on the issues.

We, as a public, need to remember to be cautious of the ads that are posted and the polls that are done.  When looking at ads and "so and so voted for this and so and so voted against that," we have to remember that with so many pork projects put into bills, it makes it easy to misconstrue someone's voting record.  

I will say the fact that Obama pledged to use the public financing if his opponent used it, and then backing out of using the public financing, upsets me.  Already he is changing his word to the American public.  This causes me a great deal of unrest.  

Know that McCain has done enough to worry me too, though I also see all the bi-partisan work McCain has done with the likes of Joe Liberman and John Warner.  People need to remember everything...not just someone's political party affiliation.


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