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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The general: Is Obama really up 15?

Posted: Monday, June 23, 2008 9:35 AM by Mark Murray

Newsweek released a poll that has Obama sporting a 15-point lead. It's the largest lead in any Obama-vs.-McCain poll to date. Will it be an outlier? An important point about THIS poll: "Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP."

VIDEO: Hardball guest host David Shuster and panel discuss the latest Newsweek poll in which Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 36 percent among registered voters.

We learned a lot about Obama's summer campaign plans in the Sunday New York Times. "Future commercials could run on big national showcases like the Olympics in August and smaller cable networks like MTV and Black Entertainment Television that appeal to specific demographic and interest groups. He is also dispatching paid staff members to all states, an unusual move by the standards of modern presidential campaigns where the fight is often contained to contested territories.”

More: "Free from the constraints of public financing, Mr. Obama’s budget for the rest of the year could exceed $300 million, campaign and party officials have said. But his fund-raising slowed in May, when the campaign raised about $22 million — almost $10 million less than in April and a large decline from the record amounts he was taking in earlier this year. The decline was evidence that he might have to invest substantial time at fund-raising to match the levels he set in the first quarter this year."

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Dear Mr. John Reynolds,

I also donated to Obama (once in February and once on April). I get an occasionaly announcement (maybe 4 times in 4 months) ansd that is it. Perhaps there is some option you can choose to stop "spama" because noone in my family who has contributed gets spams. Check back I hope you can stop it! (I woud not like it either)
The reason the democrats are giving so much money to Obama is that they are poor.  They have figured out that if they give now, they will get it all back and more if Bam Bam gets in.  They will just take from the rich and give it right back to the poor.  Actually, pretty smart for them.
I have one thing to say to the GOP coat tails coat tails coat tails they seem to be long and we're looking at a big turn in the house and senate and we will have the power to make the changes we need to and Bush better hope it's not enough to look into his mistakes for crimes against America
I think people fail to acknowledge all of the new voters that Obama has brought onto the scene.  During the primaries, in many states, Obama got more votes than the Republicans and Hillary combined.  George Will recently noted this and went on to say that the Republicans are in a lot of trouble if all of those folks vote in November.  I think we are seeing that people are really tired of the Bush crime family and want change.  I think you are seeing a combination of folks who really like Obama and folks who really dont like Bush and same as Bush.

I love the comparison's to Carter and tax raising which is rather funny when you stop to think Bush has us drowning in debt and scandal with the Saudis and Chinese buying up that debt. Not to mention the billions he is dumping daily into Iraq.  It is amazing that the Republicans are still drinking the coolaid as the our country is being run into the dirt. Keeping voting against your best interest and remember racism has a price.


Republican's keep dreaming and drinking the Bush and Same as Bush coolaid

Amazing.  Yes, it's very early, and yes, others have had a substantial lead.  But this comes on the heels of McCain's supposed "lead" only 2 weeks ago.  I have to laugh when some of these people allege that Sen. Obama "wants to federalize everything, and it will cost a huge tax increase".  Excuse me, but it's the Republicans who have been robbing us blind for 8 years with their never-ending "war on terror" that has gained nothing, and lost over a million Iraqi and Afghani lives, over 4500 of our troops (in both nations) and produced deficits in the hundreds of billions, and long term debt in the trillions.  Ending those wars and turning to diplomacy and constructive engagement will save all that money that can then be turned to working on real health care reform, real infrastructure improvement, and reigning in the runaway spending of the Pentagon and military contractors. That, together with ending the tax breaks for the wealthiest piggies at the trough, will take care of those massive deficits.
Come on, a poll from NEWSWEEK?  They might as well put "VOTE FOR OBAMA" on ever cover!

Newsweek is so biased it is laughable!
There's a huge difference between responding to a phone call saying that you'll vote for someone and actually getting off your butt and schlepping down to a polling station:  in the first case, the action comes to you.  In the second case, you have to go out and find it.

Bottome line: Saying you would vote for someone doesn't mean that you actually will.

Obama will still win this election, assuming that Bush hasn't invaded Iran (or, re-invaded the US, a la 911) and declared martial law and "suspended" the election to keep himself in power.  But Obama will not win by more than four percentage points.
Obama's lead in the polls is nothing of consequence.  It will shrink over the summer and mostly vaporize by October 1st.  He is riding the wave of the post-primary season as the dems nominee-apparent, but that wave always crests by the fall.  Because McCain has not been in a slug fest with his GOP opponents for a while, he hasn't gotten as much limelight.  What he has been doing is quietly shoring up his base while taking the occasional shot at Obama and courting disappointed Clintonistas.  Since the majority of the American people agree with McCain on security and energy issues anyway, his close support for the Bush administration on Iraq is unlikely to be a major issue in November.  Most people have already fixed their opinions on Iraq and fall into basically two groups:  (1) leave now, or (2) leave when the job is done.  The (1) group didn't kick out Bush in 2004, and the (2) group is not appreciably smaller now than in 2004.  Obama will have to pull a rabbit out of his *ss to win.
McCain does have a big problem. I have yet to meet a young voter excited about supporting McCain. The energy and enthusiam I see for Obama is more than I have seen in years and I am a Republican.  I don't even talk politics with my kids anymore because they are 150% Obama.
Who cares?  They are both the same.  Enough of this stupid two party system.  It is just a shell game.   Obama will just weaken the military, raise taxes and raise the national debt.   The other party will lower taxes and raise the national debt.  Hopefully Obama and the congress doesn't try to run the country like California.  I just waiting for this state to go bankrupt.
15 point lead is great and it's probably higher in reality.  But thanks to misleading headlines like the one ran today on MSNBC's home page about Obama's ties to ethanol that should keep the numbers down.  Whoever ran that article should be ashamed of themselves...that is NOT fair journalism.  Be careful MSNBC or you will join the same club as FOX news (or lack of).  Let's not mislead the public.
Obama '08
Obama as President ----NOT!!!!!!  The majority of Americans who never get polled will show them in November who they will put their trust in....and it ain't gonna be your darling Obama.....he doesn't know what he's doing and will tax everybody.....America deserves better than Obama and they will get that....wait and see.....
I like most democrats, but I absolutely despise Obama.  He's too inexperienced, arrogant, and naive to be a senator, let alone President.  McCain is the only Republican I've ever respected.  I disagree with McCain about the war, but I'm much more concerned with domestic issues like ethanol subsidies and reducing government spending and waste.  Obama's only appeal to me is his stance on ending the war in Iraq, but that's not enough for me to vote for him.  McCain may lose big in more liberal states, but he will lose the election in the working class and midwestern states.  
Funny, yesterday's ABC Washington Post Poll has McCain leading among likely voters.

Traditional pattern by the lefty press. Dukakis had an 18 pt lead and I dont recall him being elected President.  


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