Perspective on recent national polls

Posted: Wednesday, June 25, 2008 10:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Be careful over-interpreting the independents number for McCain in current polls. The reason he's doing well among indies is that a growing slice of them are former Republicans.

This goes to the party I.D. issue. As more folks refuse to identify themselves as GOPers, they move into the independent category, making those voters more conservative than we've seen in the past and therefore artificially increasing McCain's share among them.

When looking at national polls, it's better to study ideology (those who identify as "conservative" or "liberal") rather than party ID ("Republican," "Independent" or "Democrat").

Just something to keep in mind when examining these national polls.

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Comments

Hey! Back off of Chuck. He's the man! Next to Tim (God rest his soul), Chuck is the best. He's fair, balanced, insightful and smart.

Lorna, North Chicago, IL (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 12:15 PM)

Thinking back on McCain's terrorist attack theory just before the election . . . didn't Hitler do the same thing in Germany (bombing the Reichstag) just before WW2 to cause fear in the German people? Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it.

Paul in Clearwater (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 12:17 PM)

It's funny to read the comments here from our liberal friends....if anyone should be ashamed it is a Democrat. The party is all about socialism. Losers from cradle to the grave.
I am proud to be a conservative! Less government, less tax, law and order. I work hard,leave me alone!

Most of the polls that have Obama with a double digit lead were taken at a Starbuck's. Sorry folks, there ain't enough white guilt to put the "community organizer" in the White House

Rob Freehold NJ (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 5:42 PM)

Good media. Tamp down that repub good news. Good media.

roger rainey (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 5:52 PM)

I tend to agree with your take. Of course, the fact that folks are still voting for the same parties even though they self identify differently for pollsters pretty much puts the lie to the claims of voter realignment arising from poll respondent self identification.

Bart DePalma, Woodland Park, CO (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 6:16 PM)

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