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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama: Goin' South

Posted: Monday, June 30, 2008 9:17 AM by Mark Murray

The New York Times looks at Obama's push to compete in the South. "Obama’s Southern strategy relies on significantly increasing black registration and turnout, as he did in the primary season. Mr. Hildebrand said that by some estimates there are 600,000 unregistered black voters in Georgia alone. The higher the black share of the vote, the lower the requirement for garnering white votes. But the Obama camp argues that it can increase its share of the white vote as well by focusing on younger, more progressive whites."

Also: "In the Republican camp, strategists say that for all the difficulties the party is facing, the South remains deeply conservative. ‘It would take an awful big shift in the electorate this year,’ said Mike DuHaime, a senior adviser to the McCain campaign. ‘It’s not like we’re talking about states that were won by one or two points last time. These Southern states, with the exception of Virginia and Florida, were double-digit wins.’”

Speaking of the South, the Wall Street Journal writes about Obama's voter registration campaign there.

The New Yorker’s George Packer writes: "In February, 2007, when Barack Obama declared that he was running for President, violence in Iraq had reached apocalyptic levels, and he based his candidacy, in part, on a bold promise to begin a rapid withdrawal of American forces upon taking office. At the time, this pledge represented conventional thinking among Democrats and was guaranteed to play well with primary voters. But in the year and a half since then two improbable, though not unforeseeable, events have occurred: Obama has won the Democratic nomination, and Iraq, despite myriad crises, has begun to stabilize. With the general election four months away, Obama’s rhetoric on the topic now seems outdated and out of touch, and the nominee-apparent may have a political problem concerning the very issue that did so much to bring him this far."

More: "The politics of the issue is tricky, because acknowledging changed ideas in response to changed facts is considered a failing by the political class. Accordingly, Obama, on the night that he proclaimed himself the nominee, in St. Paul, made a familiar declaration: ‘Start leaving we must. It’s time for Iraqis to take responsibility for their future.’ His supporters claim that the polls are with Obama, that war fatigue will make Iraq a political winner for him in November. Yet, as exhausted as the public is with the war, a candidate who seems heedless of progress in Iraq will be vulnerable to the charge of defeatism, which John McCain’s campaign will connect to its broader theme of Obama’s inexperience in and weakness on national security. The relative success of the surge is one of the few issues going McCain’s way; we’ll be hearing about it more and more between now and November, and it might sway some centrist voters who have doubts about Obama."

Bill Clinton and Obama may talk in 24 to 48 hours, according to former Clinton fundraiser-in-chief Terry McAuliffe. “ ‘Is he somewhat angry, as I am, and others, at some of the treatment Hillary Clinton received from the press? Sure. But, you know, that's life,’” McAuliffe said in an interview with CNN. Clinton’s trip to Europe was in deference to his wife, McAuliffe added. "What I think they wanted to do was, first of all, go through the event on Friday, the Unity event," McAuliffe said. "It was up to Hillary. As Bill Clinton will say, she is the political leader of their family."

Michelle Obama sat down with USA Today. “‘I don't want to be a distraction. I want to be a part of the solution,’ Obama told USA TODAY in a 27-minute interview Thursday. She said she hopes to help make America a place where ‘more hardworking people feel they can carve out a life that makes sense for themselves and their kids.”

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In the Republican camp, strategists say that for all the difficulties the party is facing, the South remains deeply conservative. ‘It would take an awful big shift in the electorate this year,’ said Mike DuHaime, a senior adviser to the McCain campaign. ‘It’s not like we’re talking about states that were won by one or two points last time. These Southern states, with the exception of Virginia and Florida, were double-digit wins.
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This is true.  However, change can be a powerful motivating force.  Powerful.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
If Iraq is stable, why can't we pull out. We are about to lose the war in afghan because we don't have the troops and supplies to manage the war. Pull out of Iraq and transfer the troops to Afghan so we can fight the real war on terror and capture those responsible for 911. Iraq stablizing works well for Obama because it strengthens his argument to withdraw troops.
"The relative success of the surge is one of the few issues going McCain’s way"

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Did I miss something? Is there a functional government in Iraq? Have the 3 warring factions come to some agreement? Are our troops still  coming home in body bags, victims of roadside and suicide bombs?

This doesn't sound like "stablilization" to me - sounds like more media spin to defend the indefensible - more McCain bias in the media - surprise, surprise.
It's going to be funny as we watch Barack Obama break up the solid south in November.  It's about time they get their act together and start acting like they live in the 21st century AD not BC.  Barack Obama is going to teach the old panderer a thing or two about politics and running in the general election.

Go Obama 08/12!
George Packer's opinion of over 80% of Americans thought processes, with regard to how we feel about Iraq if way off.

First of all, we are fed up with the borrow, and spend practices that have so much of our National Treasure, (both presently, as well as, our children's), being invested in Iraq, when it is sorely needed here at home.

Secondly, Mr. Packer, it's the economy Mr., 'I can afford to fill my tank, and refrigerator with ease' elitist!

Please, sir, keep your conjecture to yourself.
McCain=Bush...war monger..don't care about you,
no health care, no social security, no help...your own your own GI's, your debt not mine...sorry sucker politics..and did Daddy Bush really want to take out Saddam?....sure thing I'll do that for ya'
well sorry GOP....Bush Huggers

Obama'08
Not for a moment would I believe that Senator Obama's team intends to register new AA voters only in the South. Here we go again with the 'beer drinking bowlers' mentality analysis.
As conservative as the south may be they just aren't thrilled with Uncle Fluffy as the GOP's nominee.

Bottom line is that the GOP brand name is damaged goods right now and nobody's happy about Iraq, the economy, inflation...you name it.

Why not go for the 50-state campaign?  How'd the old way work for Gore and Kerry?
Are gas prices that low in the South? Must be nice.  By November, those in walking distance to the polls may be the only Republican voters.
Anyone who knows anything about what is going on in this country is voting Democratic this election, how could they not? Democrats aren't perfect, but Obama will lower taxes on the middle class and raise them on the super rich, he will direct a massive effort to get us off imported oil, and he will use diplomacy over force to extricate us from the Iraq debacle. McCain will just continue Bush's policies, on the other hand, the same policies that are bankrupting our country. Why would any fool vote for McCain?
I think Obama can make Georgia closer than past Dems have but I doubt he can pull that one off. Still, there is a demographic shift toward more young suburnites, so never say never. But I suspect the Obama campaign is just trying to drive the McCain camp nuts.

Now Virginia is a different story. I'd say Obama's chances are better than McCain's here right now. And I'd like to see some polling numbers from North Carolina - just a hunch.
Obama's push to compete in the South. "Obama’s Southern strategy relies on significantly increasing black registration and turnout.

 This is the only reason he is where he is today. They vote for him because he says he is black. They have no idea what he stands for or will do to this country. So it might just work.
People in the South [GA] are feeling the same frustration as the rest of the country......we want change....not McCain.
GA will turn blue!
I believe turn out is going to be key in the south and every where else for that matter.  But, epecially here in NC.  Yes there are alot of conservatives here but they aren't happy with McCain.  Most of the conservatives I know wanted Huckabee.  
If Obama can turn out the votes he will win in NC because most of my Republican family members are either voting for Obama or staying home.

My husbands family lives in Tennessee, all conservatives and they are the same way.  I doubt Obama can win Tennessee but McCain is going to have a problem with turn out.  
Where did the GOP get this lie that the Surge is working?!?  Fewer Americans are dying, it's true, but we did the Surge to give the so-called Iraqi "government" time to get their act together, so the country can move upward and onward. But the bad joke that is the Iraqi parliament is still endlessly bickering, when it isn't vacationing, and has done nothing for America since the Surge started.  So, the Surge is a success...HOW?!?  So Obama is still on target here.  Just because Americans have now relaized the GOP failed them as badly economically as they have in foreign policy doesn't mean that Obama's plans to pull out (like Ole H.W. should've)are not still important.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Two percent (2%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 5% remain undecided. New polling released earlier today shows John McCain continuing to enjoy a solid lead in Georgia.

Maybe the south will stay with good values, security,peace of mind that the country is in safe hands.
Where did the GOP get this lie that the Surge is working?!?  Fewer Americans are dying, it's true, but we did the Surge to give the so-called Iraqi "government" time to get their act together, so the country can move upward and onward. But the bad joke that is the Iraqi parliament is still endlessly bickering, when it isn't vacationing, and has done nothing for America since the Surge started.  So, the Surge is a success...HOW?!?  So Obama is still on target here.  Just because Americans have now realized the GOP failed them as badly economically as they have in foreign policy doesn't mean that Obama's plans to pull out (like Ole H.W. should've)are not still important.
Unhappy Dem: "This is the only reason he is where he is today. They vote for him because he says he is black. They have no idea what he stands for or will do to this country."

So are you saying blacks are not smart enough to find out what a presidential candidate stands for?  This comment in itself is why so many people are misguided by people like you who dont take the time to find out about different people, there veiws or what they believe in. I have no problem if you believe BHO is not qualified or you dont agree with what his goals are, but at least be smart enough to base your opinion on issues instead of some crazy notion that all blacks are voting just because as you say "he says he is black", do you think if there is a black president we will do something to put whites as slaves or try to give extra benifits to blacks that whites are not allowed to get. This is nonsense please understand that even as president there are checks and balances in government so why would any white government offical back someone who thinks this is even possible.  Think About it.
I predict Obama will do better than expected among Southern Whites, based on the issues that effect there lives.


Here's a thought: the economy and the stock market are tanking similar to the pre-depression days, prices for gasoline and staple goods are climbing similar to the times in pre-Nazi Germany. Perhaps a democratic change and a return to sanity may keep our country alive.
Which world is this person living in? Iraq stabilized? More like getting used to the bombings and killings, which is something nobody can get used to. It's just that the media has stopped reporting as much as it used to. What Obama promised is still relevant. I'm all for Obama, I'm supporting him for president. Vote Obama! Go WhyObama08.org!
If Iraq is getting that stable, then we should be able to pull a lot of troops out, but even though it seems to be getting better, just one or two incidents would destabilize it again. Has anyone been paying attention to the disasters that the weather has caused the last couple of years here in the U.S? We should could use the war money to improve our own infrastructure and build our own schools, etc. Why do we need to do this in another countries? Also if we sign a Status of Forces agreement to keep troops in Iraq or Afganistan for years and years. Does anyone realize how expensive that will be to develop and maintain?
Unhappy Dem, don't blame just the AAs. At least, as a group they have a reason as a sense of community pride. Now, I don't agree with that, but I can understand that more. The rest of these yo-yos can't tell you what he stands for because he can't tell you except "hope and change."  
Obama is spreading himself too thin. He might have a shot at Virginia because of its northern suburbs but there just aren't enough blacks and progressive whites in the rest of the Southland to justify his presence there.

The Southland didn't support the last two Democratic presidential candidiates, Gore & Kerry. I doubt they will support a Democratic candidiate who is more liberal than they were as well as black. Obama seems to have a blind spot about residual white racism in America.

And his campaign contributions may just start to dry up once his supporters realize they have to subsidize the $85M in foregone federal money for the privilege of giving him even more!
Unhappy Dem. There are a lot of people in the south are just fed up with the Repulicans crooks, and they will be voting for a great person by the name Barak Obama, and I think you should start to get happy or don't vote, just stay home and cry. McCain is the biggest flpflopper I have ever seen and a liar to boot.


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