July 2008 - Posts
From NBC’s Alex Wall and Katie Mulhall Obama campaign is launching a Web site to discredit the McCain campaign’s recent attacks on Obama, it announced in a conference call this afternoon. Campaign Manager David Plouffe said that LowRoadExpress.com , a title taken from a New York Times editorial , will focus specifically on documenting and fact checking these attacks.
The Obama campaign already has a page on its Web site dedicated to debunking attacks from viral e-mails and other sources called, “Fight The Smears .” Plouffe clarified that this new site would be solely used to “correct mistruths” coming directly from the McCain campaign.
VIDEO: A day after Sen. John McCain mocked Sen. Barack Obama's celebrity status in a TV ad, Obama's campaign launched a new web site to rebut attacks and responded with an ad of its own. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. Aides also emphasized that even some Republicans are questioning McCain’s tone and tactics. Susan Eisenhower, president of the Eisenhower Group (and Ike’s granddaughter), added, “These kind of comments and innuendos have no place in a presidential campaign of this importance.”
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From NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube
"I am planning and expecting to return to the Pacific Northwest 173 days from today," Gates said with a smile.
When reminded that that is not exactly a denial, Gates said simply, "I'll just leave it at that."
In February of this year, a reporter for the New York Times Magazine asked Gates if he would consider staying on in the next administration, to which he replied, "The circumstances under which I would do that are inconceivable to me."
Later in today's briefing, a reporter asked how Gates is able to come up with the precise number of days before he is scheduled to leave the Pentagon. Gates replied, "I'm paying attention."
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy RACINE, Wisc. -- Just hours after his campaign manager accused Obama of playing the race card, McCain appeared at the Racine Civic Center here and pushed the same message he has been pushing all week: Obama's actions don't match his words.
In his opening remarks, McCain repeated lines he has been using for the past two days, saying Obama is an "impressive speaker" who has excited millions of "young" voters, but it will take more than words to change Washington.
"I have asked Sen. Obama to travel across this country with me and engage in town hall meetings," McCain said. "He has refused to do so, and yesterday he -- in case you missed it -- he wanted to have a duel. I'm not sure exactly what weapons he had in mind, but why don't we just sit down together and have a discussion, because that discussion has got to be with the American people."
This back-and-forth between Obama and McCain has heated up in recent days, especially since the release of the new McCain TV ad dubbing Obama a "celebrity." The media has not had the opportunity to ask the GOP senator about the new ad or about this week's line of attack, but a questioner did the job today by asking if McCain had flip-flopped on his pledge to run a positive campaign.
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From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro , McCain campaign manager Rick Davis released this one-sentence statement: "Barack Obama has played the race card, and he played it from the bottom of the deck. It's divisive, negative, shameful and wrong."
The statement refers to this Obama line yesterday: "So nobody really thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they're going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he's not patriotic enough. He's got a funny name. You know, he doesn't look like all those other Presidents on those dollar bills, you know. He's risky. That's essentially the argument they're making."
VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis about the Republican candidate's new ad. Obama's remark yesterday seemed innocuous. In fact, it's similar to what he has said many times before. "I know that I don’t look like the Americans who’ve previously spoken in this great city," Obama noted in last week's speech in Berlin.
Perhaps more important, Obama's remarks wouldn't have been seen as playing the race card if Davis hadn't issued this release. After all, the best way to play the race card sometimes is to accuse the other side of playing it.
Could you argue Obama has used the color of his skin as an attempt to garner votes? Yes. Could you also argue that some Republicans have played the race card? Yes. (See here and here and here .) And was it inevitable that race was going to play a role in this campaign? Yes.
But Obama's remarks yesterday seemed like an obvious observation; Obama was very subtle. Davis, though, decided to use a sledgehammer.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton issued this statement: "This is a race about big challenges -- a slumping economy, a broken foreign policy, and an energy crisis for everyone but the oil companies. Barack Obama in no way believes that the McCain campaign is using race as an issue, but he does believe they're using the same old low-road politics to distract voters from the real issues in this campaign, and those are the issues he'll continue to talk about."
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa --
Obama condemned the
Paris Hilton ad today as the latest of
McCain’s “predictable political attacks” and sought to portray his opponent as looking out for profitable big oil contributors instead of the working class.
“Given the magnitude of our challenges when it comes to energy and health care and jobs and our foreign policy, you’d think that we’d be having a serious debate,” Obama told residents of this flood-ravaged town. “But so far, all we’ve been hearing about is Paris Hilton and Britney Spears . I do have to ask my opponent, is that the best you can come up with? Is that really what this election’s about? Is that what is worthy of the American people?”
Hours after Exxon-Mobil announced a record $12 billion quarterly profit, Obama whacked the oil industry. “While big oil is making record profits,” he said, “you’re paying record prices at the pump, and our economy is leaving working people behind.”
Obama defended his opposition to expanded offshore oil drilling, saying it wouldn’t provide “short-term relief or medium-term relief or, in fact, long-term relief.”
“Now, although it won’t save you dollars at the pump, I have to say that it has helped raise campaign dollars,” he added. “Because last month, Senator McCain raised more than a million dollars from -- guess who? -- oil and gas company executives and employees – most of whom, most of these campaign contributions came after he went to Houston to meet with a bunch of oil executives and announce that he was in favor of offshore drilling. That’s not a strategy designed to end our energy crisis, it’s a strategy designed to get politicians through an election.”
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From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
RACINE, WI --
McCain was just asked at his town hall here about his controversial TV ad comparing
Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.
"All I can say is that we are proud of that commercial," he answered. "We think Americans need to know that I believe that we should base this campaign on what we can do for Americans here at home and how we can make America safe and prosperous. And that is the theme of our campaign."
*** UPDATE ***
McCain: "First of all, let me say there are differences, and we are drawing those differences. And I said earlier, I admire his campaign. But what we are talking about here is substance and not style. And what we are talking about is who has an agenda for the future of America."
"Campaigns are tough," he added, "but I'm proud of the campaign that we have run. I'm proud of the issues that we have been trying to address with the American people. And again, I would hope that Sen. Obama would join me so we could discuss this as he said he wanted to quote duel over taxes, I believe yesterday. So, all I can say is that we are proud of that commercial. We think Americans need to know that I believe that we should base this campaign on what we can do for Americans here at home and how we can make America safe and prosperous. And that is the theme of our campaign."
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Andrea Mitchell McCain's recent TV ad depicting Obama as celebrity without substance, two of McCain's key Senate allies fired back in an unrelated news conference.
GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said the whole idea of the ad was "fame without portfolio." "This is a hysteria around a personality that's attractive, but when you look under the hood there's not a whole lot there," Graham told reporters. "So fame without portfolio is sort of fashionable. But leadership without experience is dangerous."
VIDEO: A TV ad released by John McCain's campaign labels Barack Obama an an empty celebrity to be compared with Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Ads from Obama have hit back. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports. The "hysteria" Graham referenced was about Obama's recent European trip. "If you embark upon a world tour and you decided to make a campaign speech in a foreign country in front of 200,000 Germans and you act like you're already president, people may notice."
Graham then suggested that Obama may be getting too big for his britches. "He said something yesterday, basically, that he embodies everything good about America. Well, it's good to have self confidence, but you can maybe go too far."
Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Lieberman took a different tack, saying the ad simply compares the two candidates in a "creative" way and people should lighten up. "To some extent the appearance of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears -- people complain about it -- they should just relax and enjoy it," he said. The idea is to draw people into the ad. The point of the ad is really quite strong: Who's ready to lead America?"
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
RICHMOND, VA -- During an hour-long program on Richmond talk-radio station WRVA, Gov.
Tim Kaine continued to offer few hints about his status as a reportedly "serious" contender for the vice presidency. The latest mini-nugget: He says that he has NOT been approached to speak at the Democratic National Convention.
"I haven't been contacted about that," he said when asked if he'd be speaking in Denver. "If they want me to, I'd be glad to."
VIDEO: While not making "categorical declarations," Gov. Tim Kaine says he's focused on running the state of Virginia and spending the day with his daughter, not talking to Barack Obama about a possible V.P. candidacy. Kaine was introduced by the station's producers with a tongue-in-cheek promo: "Ask the Future Possible Vice President." But he diligently continued the refrain that he does not discuss his conversations with
Obama's team.
"I'm not going to make a case for myself for VP, because I haven't ever asked to be considered," he told a call-in questioner who asked about his foreign policy qualifications as a veep. But he quickly added, "You're right: I'm an economy and education guy. That's what governors do."
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro MSNBC's Morning Joe , McCain spokeswoman Nicolle Wallace and Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs passive (and not so passive) aggressively sparred this morning over the "Celeb" ad.
After Wallace defended the campaign calling Obama "fussy" and talked about celebrity, the food fight began:
VIDEO: McCain strategist Nicolle Wallace and Obama adviser Robert Gibbs discuss the newest McCain ad, which labels Obama "The biggest celebrity in the world." GIBBS: You know the last time I saw Britney Spears on stage with a politician, the guy looked a lot like John McCain, because that's who it was. It was John McCain. ... We'll let them take the low road; it's a place they feel very comfortable in.
On why Obama isn't doing any town halls with McCain, Gibbs insisted Obama camp did offer to do town halls (two as far as we know. McCain's campaign asked for 10. So far, they have done zero together.)
GIBBS: ...We did; we offered... Maybe Nicolle can figure out...
WALLACE [smiling]: We would love that Robert; we would just love that.
Joe Scarborough raised if Gibbs' statement meant that Obama would agree to 10 town hall meetings and sent a letter saying so.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira Nancy Pelosi is gladly accepting praise from McCain -- but to an extent.
She was asked at the end of her weekly on-camera session with reporters about McCain's reported praise for her. “I respect Speaker Pelosi. I think she's one of the great American success stories," McCain told the San Francisco Chronicle .
Pelosi says that she and McCain "have worked wonderfully together" in the past on such issues as campaign finance reform (she had to bring THAT up) and global warming.
"I look forward to continue working with him in the United States Senate," she concluded to laughter.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro The day after Britney-Paris: Today might be a day when John McCain ought to simply forget to read the news clippings, turn off the cable TV, and not browse The Google. The editorials that are blasting his new Britney-Paris ad and other attacks against Obama are piling up. (An example from the St. Pete Times : “The self-described ‘happy warrior' in the 2000 presidential campaign has turned sour in 2008, and the candor and straight talk that once made him such an attractive candidate are rapidly disappearing.”) And so are the blind quotes from Republican strategists questioning his campaign’s tactics. (See the next paragraph.) The danger here for McCain is that, by all accounts, he’s more sensitive to criticism by the media and fellow colleagues than your average Republican; as someone who’s been praised by the press more often than not, he cares what the New York Times has to say. So today and tomorrow, McCain’s body language will be interesting to watch. But since his campaign has made the decision to go after Obama -- it has now produced four consecutive negative ads against the Democrat -- the best course for McCain may simply be to put on the blinders and move forward. The question is whether McCain has the self-discipline to ignore the noise and march forward and accept this strategy as the winning one.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel talks about John McCain's new attack ad targeting Barack Obama and comparing him to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. ***
When ex-aides attack: While it’s too soon to know whether McCain’s Paris-Britney ad will work, it’s clear that some Republicans and ex-McCain aides weren’t too impressed. “Their increasing bitterness reflects a campaign that is more about some sort of therapeutic frustration venting for the staff than any coherent strategy to elect McCain,” one GOPer told the
Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza . “It's unprofessional to the core.” Meanwhile, ex-McCain strategist John Weaver called the ad “childish” and “tomfoolery.” "John's been a celebrity ever since he was shot down," Weaver said to the
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder . "Whatever that means. And I recall Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush going overseas and all those waving American flags." Indeed, what’s perhaps most interesting to us are all the Republicans and ex-McCain aides who have been openly critical of the campaign. In presidential contests, Republicans are normally unaccustomed to this kind of intra-party dissent and criticism. But as we found with the Kerry campaign in ’04 and the Team Hillary in ’08, it doesn’t necessarily help when there are so many people who like to talk. No matter how disgruntled the McCain campaign says these folks are, these ex-McCainiacs have an impressive track record and know how to give a good quote…
***
What’s he for ? Here’s an additional thought from NBC’s David Gregory, host of MSNBC’s Race for the White House, from his top headline last night: "'What's he FOR?' That was Obama's back of the hand for McCain's stepped up efforts to go negative -- big time -- against the Illinois senator. It's said that campaigns are often about choices. McCain, who can depend on his biography, now seems intent on creating a biography for his opponent, one that borrows from themes raised successfully by President Bush against John Kerry in 2004. Kerry seemed French (remember?); didn't support the troops (though he was a decorated Vietnam veteran); and was weak and a politician first. A McCain source recently told me that the Arizona senator would only attack about something if he believes it. That tells us there is something about Obama McCain has really come to dislike. Or it means making the campaign about Obama is the only way to win. It should also be pointed out that embedded in what some may condemn as baseless negative advertising are serious questions for debate in this campaign about Obama's judgment and plans. It's ironic, however, that McCain -- whose political career has been defined by his biography -- has taken to playing on his opponent’s turf. A big challenge for McCain is this: Obama isn't alone; there are Republican allies of McCain's who urge him to spend time spelling out what he is for." The campaign will argue that between the debates and McCain's convention speech, he'll have a chance to spell out what he's for ... but will that be enough?
***
Battleground update: A new round of
Quinnipiac polls shows Obama leading in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- but McCain gaining ground on him. In Florida, Obama is up by two points (46%-44%); a month ago, the lead was four points (47%-43%). In Ohio, Obama is also up two (46%-44%); a month ago, he was up six (48%-42%). And in Pennsylvania, Obama is up seven points (49%-42%); a month ago, the lead was 12 (52%-40%). The good news for McCain is that he’s gaining ground in these crucial states. The bad news for him is that both Florida and Ohio are absolute must-wins for him. That’s not the case for Obama. These numbers in these three states match what we've heard on the ground from campaign types. Basically, Obama has moved Florida from Lean McCain two months ago to toss-up; has held his own in Ohio (though some might argue his lead is a bit bigger than Q shows); and continues to hang on to this high single-digit lead in Pennsylvania, which at some point has to frustrate the McCain campaign because it's starting to make GOPers wonder if the Keystone state is the party's new white whale.
***
Are Obama’s North Carolina chances for real? Folks, it’s not every day that we get a press release from the RNC announcing a new state director for just one state -- North Carolina. But that’s what we found in our email inbox this morning. This is the first acknowledgment from Republicans that they are now taking the Tar Heel State seriously.
VIDEO: President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have agreed to pursue a "general time horizon" for withdrawal from Iraq, even as Maliki announces support for Barack Obama's Iraq proposal. NBC's Patty Culhane reports. ***
President Bush makes some news: From the president’s statement this morning: “Beginning tomorrow, troops deploying to Iraq will serve 12-month tours instead of 15-month tours… We're also making progress in our discussion with Prime Minister Maliki's government on a strategic framework agreement. This agreement will serve as the foundation for America's presence in Iraq once the United Nations resolution authorizing the multinational forces there expires on December the 31st.”
*** All about the brand: What's the most damaging thing for Senate Republicans out of the Ted Stevens news? He's become the third sitting GOP senator in the last two years who has had trouble with the law. The other two: David Vitter and Larry Craig. The Rule of Three in this case is not something the GOP could use right now. As conservative activist Tony Perkins put it in his newsletter yesterday regarding Stevens: "As Republicans try to claw their way back to respectability before an election cycle that could plunge them even deeper into the congressional minority, they're instead pushed back into the familiar role of damage control. The news of Stevens' indictment can undo any progress the party has made in rebuilding voters' trust. Instead of purging corruption, Stevens' debacle may do even more damage to the Republican brand." Will Senate Dems be able to use this GOP troika to attack the party and whittle away at its brand in the same way the House Dems hurt the House GOP in '06 on this front?
*** Meet Bobby Jindal: When sworn in as governor, he became the youngest sitting governor at age 36… Jindal, a Rhodes Scholar, turned around the failing Louisiana public health system when he was in his 20s… Named Piyush by a family of Indian descent, but insisted on being called Bobby, after Bobby from The Brady Bunch (we're not kidding)… Converted to Catholicism at age 18… Wrote of witnessing an exorcism of a friend who had cancer -- and then afterward, he wrote, "surgeons found no traces of cancerous cells." Attacks on Jindal using religion backfired on Democrats in Louisiana, but how would this play on a national stage?… Recently Jindal got in legislative hot water before he reversed course and vetoed a legislative pay raise…. But likely the biggest obstacle to Jindal being picked is the most obvious one -- he's been governor for less than a year and he's so young, he could be McCain's grandson.On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Racine, WI, while Obama holds his own economic town hall in Cedar Rapids, IA. Also, Hillary Clinton addresses AFSCME -- the government employees union that backed her in the Democratic primaries -- in San Francisco; Obama speaks to the union via satellite. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The New York Times front-pages McCain’s new ad against Obama. “After spending much of the summer searching for an effective line of attack against Senator Barack Obama, Senator John McCain is beginning a newly aggressive campaign to define Mr. Obama as arrogant, out of touch and unprepared for the presidency. On Wednesday alone, the McCain campaign released a new advertisement suggesting -- and not in a good way -- that Mr. Obama was a celebrity along the lines of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Republicans tried to portray Mr. Obama as a candidate who believed the race was all about him, relying on what Democrats said was a completely inaccurate quotation.”
VIDEO: Sen. John McCain's new campaign ad featuring Paris Hilton and Britney Spears attacks Sen. Barack Obama for being a celebrity instead of a leader. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. More: “Mr. McCain’s more focused assault comes after one of his worst weeks of the general election campaign, when he seemed to fumble for a consistent, overarching critique of Mr. Obama, who winged around the Middle East and Europe. Mr. McCain’s advisers continue to look for ways to bring more discipline to his message, and are being urged by some supporters to cut back the frequency of his question-and-answer sessions with reporters, a staple of his campaign but one that occasionally yields unscripted moments, misstatements and off-the-cuff pronouncements that divert attention from the themes he is trying to promote. The intensity of the recent drive -- which has included some assertions from the McCain campaign that have been widely dismissed as misleading -- has surprised even some allies of Mr. McCain, who has frequently spoken about the need for civility in politics.”
The Washington Post ties the new McCain ad to criticisms that he doesn’t always stick to the script. “As Election Day nears, McCain's campaign is adopting the aggressive, take-no-prisoners style of Karl Rove, the GOP operative who engineered victories for President Bush. The campaign continued the attack Wednesday with a sarcastic television ad deriding Obama as a "celebrity," part of an intensifying effort to cast him as an elitist.”
“But the sharp-edged approach is being orchestrated for an unpredictable candidate who often chafes at delivering the campaign's message of the day. It is that freewheeling style that has made him popular with voters and cemented his reputation for candor and straight talk… The result is a presidential campaign that sometimes rolls between serious policy discussions about the nation's future and gotcha politics aimed at undermining his opponent's character. McCain himself is often caught in the middle, proclaiming his commitment to the former while participating in the latter.”
Tom Edsall , writing on Huffington Post, writes, "Facing gale-force anti-Republican headwinds, John McCain must cut Barack Obama down to size in order to be competitive. But McCain's track record using negative ads has been and may still be problematic -- if not disastrous." More: "For McCain, negative ads have by and large been poorly conceived and minimally effective. In 2000, his decision to go negative against George W. Bush was a crucial factor in McCain's eventual defeat." In South Carolina, after Bush allies accused McCain of fathering a black baby, "McCain, who is known for his temper, took the Bush bait, becoming visibly enraged as he roamed the state and produced a television commercial in which he personally accused Bush of twisting 'the truth like Clinton.' ... By the standards of the GOP in South Carolina, John McCain had crossed over into the nether world. In a matter of a week, the Arizona Senator's bid collapsed."CONTINUED >>
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll has Obama leading McCain by seven points nationally among registered voters, 51%-44%.
Meanwhile, the latest round of Quinnipiac battleground polls show Obama up in Pennsylvania (49%-42%) and statistically tied but leading in Ohio (46%-44%) and Florida (46%-44%). Though Obama still leads, the polls are closer than a month ago with some movement apparent with independents.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at new polls that show John McCain gaining on Barack Obama in swing states and the "ad wars" going on between the candidates. Looking at Quinnipiac’s numbers, the
Wall Street Journal notes Obama's losses in demographic groups: "Looking at changes across all four states, independent voters inspired the biggest shift. Obama saw a 26 percentage point loss from June to July, whereas McCain saw a 22 point gain. Similarly, Obama lost 23 points with white males and 22 points with young voters. McCain gained 23 points and 11 points with the respective demographic groups."
MISSOURI: The Washington Post takes a look at Obama's attempts to win the Show Me State. "With a town hall meeting and rally in Springfield, another in Rolla, a stop in Lebanon, and a rainy barbecue here, Obama is trying to mimic Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill's winning game plan from 2006 and get beyond more traditional strategies that left Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) narrow losers in the Show-Me State. Democrats have traditionally counted on huge margins in St. Louis and Kansas City to counter GOP strength in the rest of the state, and it hasn't worked."
"In the libertarian-leaning West, where Paul's message of distrust of the federal government and ardent individualism played particularly well, there is talk of Republicans straying from McCain," the AP writes. "Libertarian candidate Bob Barr has emerged as a favorite alternative for Paul activists, followed by Constitutional Party candidate Chuck Baldwin. Even if the numbers of such dissenters are small, in tight contests in key Western states they could spoil McCain's chances, experts say."
VIDEO: Just hours after returning from his trip overseas, Barack Obama faced a string of attacks from John McCain, who accused him of calling for a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq for political gain. NBC's Kevin Corke reports. At his fundraiser in Kansas City yesterday, McCain talked about Social Security and his opponent’s lack of military service, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy points out. "I am opposed to raising taxes,” the Arizona senator said. “Sen. Obama wants to raise your taxes. He wants to raise your taxes and if any negotiation I might have when I go in my position will be that I am opposed to raising taxes, but we have to work together to save Social Security."
And: "What puzzled me was when Sen. Obama announced his policy concerning Iraq before he left, after not having been there in more than 900 days. And he got a briefing from Gen. Petraeus, and Gen. Petraeus told him that his policy of setting a date for withdrawal was dangerous for America. And the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on television, our highest-ranking military officer, said it would be a dangerous course. Now for somebody who's had no military experience whatsoever, I would strongly recommend that Sen. Obama at least listen, at least listen to our military leaders and not devise a policy before you leave."
MoveOn and the Sierra Club will begin airing two new TV ads that hit McCain on the issue of energy. A MoveOn spokesman tells First Read that both ad buys are in the six figures.
MoveOn’s ad features a testimonial from a father: “Sen. McCain, you let me and my kids down. From the very beginning, I told them, 'This is a principled guy.' So when you said you were going to help me drive affordably again, I believed you. And then your idea is to do offshore drilling, which I find out won't produce any oil for 10 years…”
The Sierra Club’s ad: “Big Oil companies have our economy and politics in a choke hold. They are getting billions from the government...raking in record profits...while we pay $4 a gallon for gas. John McCain’s answer? Another $4 billion giveaway to Big Oil.”
Yesterday was a decidedly un-Paris Hilton day for Obama, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli notes. As if by design, the candidate’s first day back on the campaign trail in weeks was all about showcasing the Democratic nominee as just the opposite of what the John McCain ad sought to portray. Instead of the rock star attracting hundreds of thousands abroad, Obama was speaking in small venues in ruby-red “Missoura,” talking about high gas prices, and trying some “feel your pain” shoulder pats and hugs.
VIDEO: TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to Nicolle Wallace, an aide for John McCain, and Robert Gibbs, a spokesman for Barack Obama, about a McCain ad that compares Obama to celebrities. He capped it off by dishing out burgers and franks to dozens of people in Union, where a few hundred huddled under a canopy to see the Democrat. Obama even sent his staff scrambling to keep up as he paraded around the venue to shake as many hands as he could, without so much as a poncho to keep him dry. “Since they don’t have any new ideas the only strategy they’ve got in this election is to try to scare you about me,” Obama said earlier, mentioning a “funny name,” a different look and “nasty emails.”
“You know, the latest one they’ve got me in an ad with Paris Hilton.” He added, “You know…never met the woman.”
For process junkies, AP's Pickler and Fournier have the story of the day -- examining the microtargeting efforts of the Obama campaign. Among the highlights: "Those 75,000 Democrats who will pack a football stadium for Barack Obama's convention speech won't be there just to whoop and holler on television. They'll form the world's largest phone bank to boost voter registration -- fired-up supporters using computer targeting the campaign has spent months putting together."
CONTINUED >>
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger and Carrie Dann DEMOCRATS: Has Obama’s short list gotten longer? The Fix says his “vice presidential vetting process has moved into a new stage in which a larger than previously reported group of candidates is being exposed to a ‘deeper dig’ into their backgrounds -- in the words of a source familiar with the process.” It may mean no decision is imminent. And is Obama meeting again with chief vetter Eric Holder? The Houston Chronicle reports that Holder was in Houston Wednesday for fundraisers. That’s where Obama will be Thursday for a finance event.
VIDEO: Time is running low for Barack Obama and John McCain to pick their running mates. NBC's David Gregory and Chuck Todd weigh in on the possible short lists. Also interviewed is analyst Mike Murphy.
A group focused on pressuring Obama to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate is shutting down. “Because it seems that Senator Obama has made his decision to offer the slot on the ticket to another candidate, we believe that continuing to ask him to pick Hillary is no longer helpful to our party’s chances of winning in November,” organizers of VoteBoth , Sam Arora and Adam Parkhomenko, are telling supporters in an email this morning. And, by the way, While Clinton has paid off 15 colleges and universities for her primary campaign, she still owes more than $150,000 for events at schools across the country. Politico . Charlie Rose (which the gov's camp says was scheduled before the veep feeding frenzy started), Kaine addressed concerns among the pro-choice community that the Roman Catholic governor would support limits on abortion rights. Although he is personally pro-life, he said he does not advocate for the overturn of Roe v. Wade. “Roe vs. Wade is ultimately about saying that there is a realm of personal liberty for people to make this decision," he said. Larry Sabato think? “If Obama and Kaine win, it could be the last victory the Democrats in Virginia have for a while,” says the UVA prof., predicting disastrous consequences for state Dems should the governor relinquish his seat. REPUBLICANS: Gov. Tim Pawlenty is on to us : “Lately, I've just stopped talking about it because I get asked about it frequently and if I say a word different than I said last time, it just fuels another round (of speculation).” Pawlenty is in Washington Thursday to speak at a press conference for Achieve, Inc., touting a new report on improving academic standards. Pawlenty serves as vice chair of the bi-partisan, nonprofit group. He told state lawmakers in Chicago Wednesday to take a Sam’s Club approach to government. “I want to get the best value for my money,” he said. “That’s missing in government in dramatic, dramatic measurement.” Dan Schnur says both men “exacerbate the greatest weaknesses of Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama, respectively, rather than addressing them.”
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign is responding to McCain's Britney-Paris-Obama ad with its own TV advertisement -- which calls McCain's attack "the same old politics," links McCain to Bush , and points out that news organization and fact-checkers have found falsehoods in past McCain ads.
The script: Announcer: He's practicing the politics of the past.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
ROLLA, MO --
Obama said at a town hall here today that
McCain is running a campaign based on nothing more than fear and negative attacks.
“He’s spending an awful lot of time talking about me,” Obama told a crowd of 1,200. “I haven’t seen an ad yet where he talks about what he’s going to do. And the reason is because those folks know they don’t have any good answers. They know they’ve had their turn over the last eight years and made a mess of things... And so the only way they figure that they're going to win the election is if they make you scared of me. So what they’re saying is, 'Well we know we’re not very good, but you can’t risk electing Obama. You know, he’s new. He doesn’t look like the other presidents on the currency.'"
VIDEO: John McCain's negativity towards Barack Obama struck again in his latest ad, which mocks the Democratic presidential candidate's worldwide celebrity. Earlier, speaking at a restaurant in the town of Lebanon, Obama responded directly to a question about McCain’s new television ad by asking reporters to turn the tables. “He doesn’t seem to have anything to say very positive about himself,” Obama said. “You need to ask John McCain what he’s for and not just what he’s against.”
The comments came as Obama continued his focus on energy and the economy. He told the crowd in Rolla that while offshore drilling may poll well, President Bush and McCain are selling the American people a “bill of goods” that offers no real relief to the current crisis. “If I thought that the only way to solve the energy crisis was to go ahead and drill some more, I’d be all for it,” Obama said. “We can work to increase supplies, but the truth of the matter is that we have got to have a much bolder energy policy.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
THE SHORT LIST. Virginia Gov. Tim
Kaine tells NBC/NJ that he doesn't "have any idea about where the process is" for the selection of the vice presidential nominee, and that he has not spoken to Sen. Barack
Obama “for a number of weeks, since before his trip.” He also said the speculation is “kinda fun.”
The
latest in the pros and cons of former Mass. Gov. Mitt
Romney : He could help Republicans in the West. He knows economics, has been vetted, and can throw and take a punch.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel takes a look at potential running mates for Barack Obama and John McCain, including Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., and former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Conservative Catholic group Fidelis is
going after Obama for possibly choosing a pro-abortion rights Catholic running mate -- Kaine or Kansas Gov. Kathleen
Sebelius : They “would represent a major insult to Catholic voters who are still evaluating his candidacy ... The choice of a pro-abortion Catholic for vice president would deal a major blow to any efforts by the Obama campaign to reach out to Catholic voters," said Brian Burch, president of the group.
ON THE RECORD. The Obama campaign announced Kathleen McGlynn, who was Sen. John
Edwards’ presidential campaign chief of staff, will serve as deputy chief of staff for the forthcoming vice presidential candidate. And David Wade, who was spokesman for John Kerry in his 2004 presidential run, will be the vice president’s traveling spokesman.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, declined to endorse Stevens' campaign for reelection. The NRSC describes itself on it's Web site as "the only political committee solely dedicated to electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate."
VIDEO: Guest host Mike Barnicle talks about the ten U.S. senators indicted while in office in the Hardball Big Number. Ensign, instead of endorsing the longest serving Senate Republican in history, said he wanted to wait for the results of Alaska's Republican primary on August 26th. Stevens faces six opponents.
"The candidates are on the ballot right now, and we're going to wait to see how that whole thing plays out," Ensign said.
"Do you still endorse Sen. Stevens?" a reporter asked Ensign.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Obama senior strategist David Axelrod called into the 1:00 pm MSNBC hour to respond to McCain's latest TV ad . Having watched McCain campaign policy adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer defend it, Axelrod called in and said the latest ad is both "sophomoric" and "negative."
VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with John McCain's policy advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer about a new ad by the Republican presidential candidate that says Barack Obama is the biggest celebrity, but he is not ready to lead. When asked about the ad's attempt to link Obama with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, Axelrod replied, "I think the most important reference in the ad was Britney Spears, because as it said in the [Obama campaign] statement, she has that song in a paraphrase 'Oops, he did it again!' Sen. McCain has been criticized in papers all over the country -- Factcheck.org -- for the tactics he has taken in the last several weeks, and the ads that he has run including one that blames Barack Obama for the energy crisis and so on."
He continued, "And in the words of USA Today yesterday, it's baloney! And the thing that is sad about it is that Sen. McCain entered this campaign as someone who was going to elevate the debate and talk about the future, and that is the reputation he had. And instead, we get some very familiar tactics. And it makes you wonder who is running the campaign, who is making the decisions, who is behind all of this. This isn't the John McCain we expect."
When told the McCain campaign's charge that it was the Obama camp who ran the first negative ad of the general election -- which was a response to an RNC TV ad hitting Obama -- Axelrod added: "The real point is we have got serious, serious challenges facing this country, including a genuine energy crisis. And we ought to have a real discussion about it. Instead, we get sophomoric, negative ads that are completely false. There are things in that ad that are fundamentally wrong in terms of what Sen. Obama's position is."*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Doug Adams Stevens' money" -- the billions in federal grants, contracts and largesse that Sen. Ted Stevens has steered to Alaska over the last 40 years. But "Stevens' money" on Capitol Hill isn't so popular anymore apparently.
VIDEO: U.S. Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska has been indicted on seven felony counts for allegedly failing to disclose gifts he received from an oil services company. NBC's Pete Williams reports. In a sign that his support within the party may be slipping, at least four GOP senators in tough re-election campaigns have announced they will give away political contributions made by Stevens' political action committee (PAC).
Through his "Northern Lights" PAC, Stevens has made more than $340,000 in campaign contributions this campaign cycle, including donations to every Republican senator up for reelection in 2008. He's given $5,000 to John McCain's campaign for president ... and $10,000 to his fellow embattled Alaskan, Rep. Don Young .
JOHN SUNUNU (R-NH) -- Yesterday, Sununu's campaign, locked in a tough re-election battle with former NH governor Jeanne Shaheeen , announced it would donate to charity the $10,000 it received from Stevens PAC. Previously it has given away other contributions it received from convicted VECO employees in 2007.
ELIZABETH DOLE (R-NC) -- Dole's campaign was the first to announce yesterday afternoon it would donate $10,000 that it received from Northern Lights PAC to charity -- the Soc. of St. Andrew, a Christian ministry dedicated to feeding America's hungry. Dole is battling a well funded Democratic opponent -- Kay Hagan .
GORDON SMITH (R-OR) -- Smith's campaign announced yesterday it would donate to charity the $10,000 it received from Steven's leadership PAC. Smith has received nearly $40,000 from Stevens in contributions over the years, and Smith's PAC has contributed to Stevens' re-election campaign.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and his campaign repeated at least two lines of attack against Obama, which when first said in early July, were called "bogus," "wrong," "inflated" and "misleading" by independent fact checkers.
At his town hall today, McCain repeated that Obama wants to raise taxes on those making as little as $32,000 a year and in his campaign's response to Obama's event in Springfield, Mo., today, repeated that "...Obama’s bad judgment led him to vote in support of higher taxes 94 times...."
Of the $32,000 point, FactCheck.org called that "bogus" and "wrong." "The McCain campaign falsely claims that Obama voted to raise income taxes on individuals earning "as little as $32,000 per year," Fact Check wrote on July 8.
"The resolution Obama voted for would not have increased taxes on any single taxpayer making less than $41,500 per year in total income, or any couple making less than $83,000. The $32,000 figure is approximately the taxable income of a single person making $41,500 per year, after all deductions and exclusions. Obama's vote (for a non-binding budget bill) does not change the fact that his own tax plan would provide a tax cut of $502 for a non-married taxpayer earning $35,000." It also points out that despite the fact check, the Republican National Committee still aired radio ads "in two states repeating the bogus $32,000 figure."
NBC's Ken Strickland wrote at the time , "There was no vote during the budget resolution process to actually raise taxes. Simply put, there was not a vote which in effect said, "let's raise taxes by 3% on certain tax brackets." So Obama did not vote to raise taxes per se. BUT... the overall budget resolution does assume the BUSH 2001/2003 tax cuts will expire (or have to be offset by new spending.) And if they expire, taxes in the 25, 28, and 33 percent tax brackets would increase 3% as Holtz-Eakin suggests. (Democrats are happy to remind folks that McCain was against those tax cuts, before he was for them.) ...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
SPRINGFIELD, MO --
Obama returned to the campaign trail today, guns blazing.
Responding to a barrage of attacks in recent weeks, he linked
McCain to the
Bush economic policies and claimed that it was the Republican nominee who was the “risky” choice in November.
“Nobody thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they are going to try to do is make you scared of me,” he told more than a thousand people at a high school here. "'He's risky' -- that's the argument... It's like, 'Well, we don't have very much to offer but he's risky.' And let me just say, it's true that change, change is hard. Change isn't easy. And the question you have to ask yourself is, 'What's more risky?’”
He added, "We are in a time right now where it is too risky not to change. It is risky to keep on doing what we are doing, to accept the tired status quo."
Obama focused almost exclusively on the economy during his half-hour opening remarks, including the high-energy costs. He challenged the notion that drilling was the answer to the crisis, saying the effort may not have an impact for 10 years, if at all.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy, NBC’s Alex Wall and Domenico Montanaro Obama an "international celebrity," McCain campaign manager Rick Davis held a conference call this morning to address the content of their latest TV ad entitled "Celeb." The ad begins with pictures of Britney Spears and Parish Hilton before showing clips of Obama speaking to a massive crowd in Berlin, and then calls him the "the biggest celebrity in the world."
Davis also defended the ad, claiming that it accurately portrays the way the Obama campaign “has conducted his campaign” and “the events he has held.” He argued the Obama campaign’s strategy was to “build a fan base around the world” rather than address the issues, and called the Illinois senator “presumptuous” and “not ready to lead.”
VIDEO: Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Pose joins the "Morning Joe" team to analyze Barack Obama's recent statements and question whether he is acting arrogant. “The difference between John McCain and Barack Obama is that [our campaign] has the expectation that the American people will decide who the next president is going to be,” Davis said. “My view is that there is a distinct difference in how John McCain conducted himself in the various world capitals compared to the ‘Obama world tour.’”
McCain adviser Steve Schmidt said, "It's beyond dispute that he has become the biggest celebrity in the world. It's a statement of fact. It's backed up by the reality of his tour around the world. He has many fans. The question that we are posing to the America people is this, ‘Is he ready to lead yet?’"
Obviously the McCain campaign's answer to that question is no, as Schmidt then went on to detail how Obama has failed to lead on the biggest issue in this election -- the economy -- calling his opposition to offshore drilling "economic crackery."
When asked what makes Obama a celebrity and not McCain, Davis said that he'd "love to think that John McCain was a big international celebrity, but he's not."
"One of the points that should be clear here today is that the Obama campaign does a wonderful job of presenting their candidate in the most popular light that they can get, and I think they do a very good job at it," Davis said. "They have more fans around the world than Britney Spears does. I make that bold, blatant statement."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Bill Richardson endorsed Obama over Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primary season, many in Clinton Land were upset with the New Mexico governor -- given that Bill Clinton made Richardson his Energy secretary and UN ambassador.
Well, it looks like Richardson is making amends by hosting two fundraisers in New Mexico on August 17 to help Hillary Clinton retire her debt.
Added Clinton spokesman Kathleen Strand: "Sen. Clinton is grateful for Gov. Richardson's and Sen. Obama's efforts to assist with retiring her campaign debt and she is looking forward to continuing to campaign for Senator Obama and help ensure victory for Democrats throughout the country this fall."
It's worth noting that Richardson's own debt from his presidential run (as of June 30) is $292,726.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Obama , the McCain campaign calls Obama the "biggest celebrity in the world" -- and in the process shows clips of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. The ad continues, "With gas prices soaring, Barack Obama says no to offshore drilling. And says he'll raise taxes on electricity. Higher taxes, more foreign oil, that's the real Obama."
On Morning Joe yesterday, McCain manager Rick Davis compared Obama to Paris Hilton. "Barack Obama has become a global celebrity," he said. "I mean, Barack Obama has more fans across the world than Paris Hilton does. I mean, it's just an extraordinary thing. And I don't think anybody would underestimate that."
Unlike its TV ad blasting Obama (falsely) over the Landstuhl controversy, which ran just a handful of times, this new ad, the campaign says, will be cycled into the campaign's buy on national cable and in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Northern Virginia, and Wisconsin.
*** UPDATE *** Obama camp's response:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira Karl Rove in contempt of Congress.
VIDEO: Former White House adviser Karl Rove has ignored a subpoena to testify in front of Congress about allegations of political pressure at the Justice Department. MSNBC's Mike Viqueira reports. Recall that Rove has recently defied a committee subpoena, refusing to testify on the firing of federal prosecutors and the politicization of the Department of Justice.
At this point it is unclear what -- if any -- action the House will take in response to the committee recommendation, assuming it passes. After Friday, the House is gone on recess until after Labor Day, when it is only expected to return for three weeks before leaving again for the year.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
CHINCOTEAGUE, VA -- Virginia Gov.
Tim Kaine tells NBC/NJ that he doesn't "have any idea about where the process is" for the selection of the vice presidential nominee, and that he has not spoken to
Obama "for a number of weeks, since before his trip."
Kaine, widely rumored to be at the top of Obama's veep short list, attended the annual Chincoteague Pony Swim this morning with his 13-year old daughter. In an interview with NBC News and the National Journal, Kaine downplayed chatter over his potential role as Obama's No. 2 as a more casual matter than the frenzy makes it seem. "I have no idea how serious it is or anything," he said, "but it's been kind of fun."
Asked if he's spoken with the Illinois senator recently, Kaine responded, "No, not for, gosh, for a number of weeks. Since before his trip. And I really don't have any idea about where the process is."
VIDEO: A Hardball panel discusses who are the top candidates on Barack Obama and John McCain's short list for vice president. Kaine insisted that he has "no hints about timing" for the veep rollout, whoever the choice may be. But he doesn't seem to mind the spotlight in the meantime. "It's nice to be speculated about," he said with a smile.
Kaine, who called the hype "kind of weird," and "surreal," was clad in a t-shirt celebrating the Virginia town's annual Pony Swim, when Chincoteague's trademark breed of ponies are herded across a channel from a nearby island for penning and auctioning.
Square on the back of Kaine's screen-printed tee: the calendar year "08."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Rock bottom for Republicans? OK, Hill Republicans, ask yourselves -- is this bottom? The indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) is a BIG deal. This appears to be a case of a politician who just didn't think he could get touched. And also, he probably believed the favors he was receiving were favors he deserved (that's usually how these longtime lawmakers talk themselves into taking these favors). As for his re-election bid, realize that Stevens was in trouble BEFORE the indictment, and his seat was one of the Democrats top pick-up opportunities this cycle. This isn't a case where he was coasting to re-election, and NOW this indictment makes him vulnerable. By the way, the Stevens indictment is actually a potential opportunity for McCain, who has never been a fan of the pork-barrel senator and has had his share of clashes with the man. But so far, we haven’t heard a peep on this from McCain... And the indictment certainly doesn’t hurt Obama’s quest to put this ruby-red state into play. But Stevens represents everything McCain's been running against inside the GOP for a decade. He ought to embrace his downfall before the GOP's tarnished brand stains him with this. Meanwhile, NBC’s Pete Williams and Tony Capra report that Stevens will appear in federal court in Washington on Thursday at 1:00 pm ET for his initial appearance on the federal charges of filing misleading financial disclosure statements.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at today's political headlines including criticisms Barack Obama is receiving for being "too arrogant" and John McCain is receiving for being "cranky." ***
Dueling narratives : When you scroll through the newspapers today -- or our summaries of them below -- you’ll discover developing narratives about Obama and McCain that have the ability to dent the images of both men. For Obama, it’s that he has become too arrogant and too confident. The
Washington Post has him telling House Democrats yesterday: “I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions.” But Politico is reporting that that wasn’t the entire quote. Per a Democratic source, “[The Post] left out the important first half of the sentence, which was along the lines of: ‘It has become increasingly clear in my travel, the campaign, that the crowds, the enthusiasm, 200,000 people in Berlin, is not about me at all. It’s about America. I have just become a symbol…” Regardless of the context now, this narrative has been ready to explode at some point and even a misreported quote was enough to spark this arrogance watch. Some see him violating the cardinal sin of politics, acting as if this campaign is about him. He needs to remember that he's latching on to the anti-Bush coattails; any Democrat would be up right now. By the way, where are Michelle Obama’s comments about her stinky and snorey husband? He could use the self-deprecation.
*** The angry warrior : For McCain, the potentially damaging narrative is that he has become the angry warrior -- lashing out harsh and lately unsubstantiated attacks against Obama. The danger for him: This could turn off independents (who happen to be McCain’s lucky shield in this tough political climate for Republicans), and it could make it nearly impossible for McCain to seem like a change candidate in this change election. Unlike Clinton, McCain does have a reservoir of favorable ratings to throw the kitchen sink at Obama. But it does seem lately that he's on the verge of mumbling one of Bob Dole's quotes of '96, when he would constantly complain about the lack of caring the public had for Clinton's character issues.
*** That’s a lot of dough in less than two months : This morning, the Wisconsin Advertising Project is up with a new report showing that more than $50 million has been spent on TV ads for the general election campaign (from June 3 to July 26). Per the report, Obama has spent more than $27 million while McCain has spent more than $21 million, with the RNC and other third-party groups making up the rest. What’s interesting is that the McCain camp -- sometimes with the RNC’s help -- is outspending Obama in many key battlegrounds (MI, OH, PA, WI, CO, MN, MO, NH, NV, NM). But where Obama’s camp is running up the score versus McCain is in six red states where McCain has yet to run an ad (FL, GA, NC, IN, MT, and AK). McCain’s camp, right now, is betting that Team Obama can’t turn one of those six blue. But if it can, it could further open up the playing field in this election.
VIDEO: Speculation is growing that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is on Barack Obama's vice-presidential short list and John McCain is considering Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. ***
Today's veepstakes buzz : Tim Kaine appears to have vaulted to the top of the Obama short list. The campaign did nothing to tamp down the speculation that began yesterday. In fact, it appears the Obama short list is truly now short -- with as few as three names now on it: Kaine, Joe Biden and Evan Bayh. As for McCain, it's been a quiet couple of days on the VP front with speculation that he's perhaps not as far along as the campaign hinted at last week when rumors were flying he could name a running mate at any moment. Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty continue to be seen as the top two potential picks.
*** Meet Kathleen Sebelius : Obama is in Missouri, which borders Kansas. That brings us to Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius… Her father, John Gilligan, was governor of Ohio. She also happens to be the first daughter of a governor to be elected governor herself… As a symbol of bipartisan appeal, her father-in-law was a Republican congressman from Kansas… Chose a Republican as her gubernatorial running mate in 2002… Ranked one of America's five best governors by Time magazine in 2005… A Catholic, she is personally opposed to abortion, though she has supported abortion-rights positions. That has led to one Archbishop to call for her not to receive communion (Remember that, John Kerry?)… Delivered the Democratic response to this year’s State of the Union, which was widely panned from the left for its bipartisan message. Even though Obama and Sebelius seem to have a lot in common, Sebelius' major obstacle is not that she is a woman, but that she is the wrong woman -- not Hillary Clinton.
*** On the trail : Both candidates are in the Show Me State. McCain raises money in Kansas City, but before that, he’s in Colorado, where he meets with conservative Catholic Archbishop Charles Chaput and visits Wagner Equipment Company. Meanwhile, in Missouri, Obama holds economic security town hall meetings in Springfield and Rolla before heading to a BBQ in Union. Click here to sign up for First Read emails .
The New York Times : "The indictment of a sitting senator, particularly one of Mr. Stevens’s seniority and stature, reverberated swiftly and ominously through the Capitol, in no small part because of the political implications. Democrats already had high hopes that they would win more seats in November. They now control the Senate by a razor-thin 51 to 49, thanks only to two independents who vote with them. As far-fetched as it might seem, some Democrats have started thinking aloud that they may be able to win nine more seats in November, bringing them a filibuster-proof majority of 60."
VIDEO: In a serious blow to one of the most powerful members of the U.S. Senate, Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, was indicted on corruption charges for failing to report $250,000 in gifts from oil companies. NBC's Pete Williams reports. Stevens professed his innocence . "With the indictment, Stevens, an icon in Alaska politics, becomes by far the most powerful politician charged in the broad, four-year federal investigation into public corruption in the state. To date, three state legislators, a high-level official in Gov. Frank Murkowski's administration, two businessmen and a lobbyist have been convicted, while two legislators are awaiting trial."
Just how much trouble is he in for re-election? Um, a lot . "Stevens, who has never had a close election race since being appointed to the Senate in 1968, says he's innocent and will fight the charges. His campaign is expressing confidence, and even detractors concede his reservoir of loyalty in the state. The question is whether a federal corruption indictment is enough to poison that goodwill.”
CONTINUED >>
Michael Duffy looks at the dilemma facing Obama between the Kaine and Biden choice. "The alternate universe goes like this: The last thing Obama ought to do is pick a figure from the Washington establishment. He needs, instead, to reinforce his message of change and shake up the status quo with an outsider untainted by the Capitol games. Such a pick would be aimed not at the party's base but at the pool of independent voters who still aren't comfortable with Obama and are looking all summer for signs that he is both something different and up to the job. Those who back this approach have been talking about Kaine for months in this context, as well as former Virginia governor Mark Warner, Kansas governor Kathleen Sibelius and Virginia Senator Jim Webb (before he took himself out of the contest)."
VIDEO: Talk that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine may be tapped as Barack Obama's running mate spilled out of the Betlway Tuesday. NBC's Brian Williams reports. More: "Of course, Obama could try to split the difference. And parked somewhere between these poles is Senator Evan Bayh, a moderate Democrat from Indiana who has been a member of the Intelligence and Armed Services committees and backed Hillary Clinton during the primary but has kept a comparatively low profile despite a decade in Washington. He has been elected statewide five times in a state where his last name is something close to hard currency, though that is hardly a guarantee that he could help Obama carry the state. Bayh's also a little short on excitement, but that's the one area where Obama can carry the ticket all by himself.”
“In any case, the choice between doubling down and compensating for weakness is not unlike the judgment awaiting Republican John McCain. He could look to a younger Republican who is more oriented toward domestic policy — such as Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who is 48, or former Bush Administration official and Ohio Congressman Rob Portman of Cincinnati, who is 52. Or he could forgo those relative newcomers and instead try to underscore his own experience by tapping former governor, businessman and Olympics organizer Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who is 61."
Get to know Tim Kaine, via the Richmond Times-Dispatch . "Kaine's enthusiasm, however, cannot mask a record as governor that even Democrats describe as mixed. Hobbled by a sour economy and a scornful Republican majority in the House of Delegates, Kaine has been able to do little for the state's cash-starved transportation system and has had to settle for less on such initiatives as expanded pre-kindergarten for 4-year-olds.”
"[S]ome analysts now say McCain might gain more of an advantage by waiting until the last possible moment. Obama must announce his pick by the time of the Democratic convention during the last week of August," the Boston Globe writes. "McCain can wait until the following week, when the Republican convention is held. Historically, the candidate who has the later convention gets the later 'bounce' in the polls. As a result, some political analysts and commentators say it would not make sense for McCain to give away the vice presidential bounce by announcing his pick before Obama." DEMOCRATS : Obama has not conducted formal sit-down interviews with vice presidential candidates and the decision is viewed as weeks, not days away, the New York Times reports. The death penalty cases Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine defended two decades ago are being reviewed in Richmond by Obama vetters. Kaine told a Chincoteague Island hotel owner Tuesday night that the vice presidential list “seems to be getting shorter . And I’m still being mentioned.” But he acknowledged a lot could change. Kaine made the comments near the Tilt-A-Whirl at the Chincoteague, which he didn’t ride. that he doesn’t want to be vice president , but “I’d say yes” if asked. He also wouldn’t answer a question on whether he was being vetted. Biden remains on the short list, the local paper says , boosted by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell’s platitudes. REPUBLICANS : A profile of the McCain-Romney bond says six hours on a plane ride healed their relationship. “McCain and his aides used to openly dislike Romney. Top strategists jokingly nicknamed him ‘Damien,’ after the kid in ‘The Omen’ who grows up to become the antichrist.” Chris Cillizza looks at why McCain shouldn’t pick former Rep. Rob Portman. Top on the list: he’s a Bush guy. Offshore gambling odds have Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney both at 2 to 1, as are Kaine and Sen. Evan Bayh on the Democratic side.
The New York Times examines the harsh tone coming out of the McCain campaign. "The old happy warrior side of Mr. McCain has been eclipsed a bit lately by a much more aggressive, and more negative, Mr. McCain who hammers Mr. Obama repeatedly on policy differences, experience and trustworthiness. By doing so, Mr. McCain is clearly trying to sow doubts about his younger opponent, and bring him down a peg or two. But some Republicans worry that by going negative so early, and initiating so many of the attacks himself rather than leaving them to others, Mr. McCain risks coming across as angry or partisan in a way that could turn off some independents who have been attracted by his calls for respectful campaigning.”
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses whether John McCain is starting to lose his cool when attacking Barack Obama. The
Washington Post writes that the McCain campaign’s charge that Obama skipped his Landstuhl visit because he couldn’t bring the press along with him doesn’t have any evidence to back that claim up. The paper also notes: "The attacks are part of a newly aggressive McCain operation whose aim is to portray the Democratic presidential candidate as a craven politician more interested in his image than in ailing soldiers, a senior McCain adviser said. They come despite repeated pledges by the Republican that he will never question his rival's patriotism."
The Post doesn't pull punches with this next graph, reporting flat out that McCain and his allies are questioning Obama's patriotism. "Despite serious and repeated queries about the charge over several days, McCain and his allies continued yesterday to question Obama's patriotism by focusing attention on the canceled hospital visit."
Speaking of the Landstuhl attack, the New York Times reports the campaign put very little money behind its TV ad attacking Obama on the issue. "The number of times Senator John McCain’s new advertisement attacking Senator Barack Obama for canceling a visit with wounded troops in Germany last week has been shown fully or partly on local, national and cable newscasts: well into the hundreds. The number of times that spot actually, truly ran as a paid commercial: roughly a dozen.”
“Result for Mr. McCain: a public relations coup that allowed him to show his toughest campaign advertisement of the year — one widely panned as misleading — to millions of people, largely free, through television news media hungry for political news with arresting visual imagery."
CONTINUED >>
Obama has gone up with a response to McCain's gas prices ad, which blames Obama for the price of gas. Obama's response is called "Old Politics," and it directs viewers to Obama's energy plan and the plan's Web site. "The ad is less hard hitting than one Obama aired earlier this month that said McCain was 'part of the problem' of high gas prices," the AP writes. "That ad responded to a Republican National Committee ad that accuses Obama of offering no new solutions for high gas prices and global warming."
VIDEO: The Obama campaign released a comeback ad to the McCain one which blames the Democratic presidential nominee for rising gas prices. A Race for the White House panel discusses. The ad is running in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, northern Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The hubris factor is front and center today. Here's the anecdote that got this issue started and a reminder that he should not use the word "I." It's a good rule for columnists (that a few annoyingly ignore) and one for candidates: "In his closed door meeting with House Democrats this evening, presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama delivered a real zinger. According to a witness, he was waxing lyrical about last week's trip to Europe, when he concluded, ‘this is the moment, as Nancy [Pelosi] noted, that the world is waiting for.’”
“The 200,000 souls who thronged to his speech in Berlin came not just for him, he told the enthralled audience of congressional representatives. ‘I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions,’ he said."
The Washington Post's Milbank adds, "Some say the supremely confident Obama -- nearly 100 days from the election, he pronounces that ‘the odds of us winning are very good’ -- has become a president-in-waiting. But in truth, he doesn't need to wait: He has already amassed the trappings of the office, without those pesky decisions."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
WASHINGTON -- A group of women leaders spoke at length this morning with
Obama about a number of key concerns, including health care and pay equity. But no conversation with any group these days could go without some discussion of running mates, and one participant said that Obama was encouraged to put
Hillary Clinton on the ticket.
“It was mentioned very briefly,” said Ellen Malcolm of EMILY’s List, one of about 30 women part of the discussion. “I think everybody realizes this will be his personal decision.”
VIDEO: Former Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe joins "Morning Joe" to discuss how Barack Obama will use Hillary Clinton in his campaign and why they haven't appeared together since Unity, N.H. Obama told the group that he had met with Clinton earlier as part of a conversation with women senators. A Clinton spokesman confirmed that the two former rivals were together this morning, but was unaware if there was one-on-one time.
“He actually told us who it’s going to be,” Malcolm joked, quickly adding that she like others has no indication of the Illinois senator’s thinking.
Obama has just departed the office of Eric Holder, who is heading his running mate search. He spent two and a half hours there today, after spending nearly two hours there yesterday.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
SPARKS, Nev. -- Speaking under an American flag and in front of a huge banner that read, "Country First,"
McCain leveled some articulate charges at his opponent today, criticizing
Obama on taxes, energy, his position on Iraq and the value of his word.
"Sen. Obama is an impressive speaker, and the beauty of his words has attracted many people, especially among the young, to his campaign," McCain said, before showering his opponent with the kind of underhanded praise familiar to politics. "My concern with Sen. Obama is that on big issues and small issues, what he says and what he does are often two different things, and that he doesn't seem to understand that the policies he offers would make our problems harder, not easier to solve."
VIDEO: Just hours after returning from his trip overseas, Barack Obama faced a string of attacks from John McCain, who accused him of calling for a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq for political gain. NBC's Kevin Corke reports. On Iraq, McCain tried to paint his opponent as irrational, highlighting Obama's opposition to the surge and then going on to say, "No rational person can look at the success on the ground in Iraq today and say that the surge hasn't succeeded."
During the question-and-answer portion of the event, McCain was asked about the recent Gallup poll that showed McCain ahead despite, as the questioner phrased it, all of the media attention lavished on Obama while he was overseas.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
VIDEO: Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, has been indicted on seven counts of making false statements. NBC's Pete Williams reports. "In accordance with Senate Republican Conference Rules, I have temporarily relinquished my vice chairmanship and ranking positions until I am absolved of these charges. The impact of these charges on my family disturbs me greatly. I am innocent of these charges and intend to prove that."
*** UPDATE *** Begich , mayor of Anchorage:
"The indictment of Senator Ted Stevens is a sad day for Alaska and for the senator after his 40 years of service to our state. The people of Alaska are resilient and strong. I have great faith in our state and our people, and we will continue to move forward."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and MSNBC.com's Andy Merten Obama said he had a "productive and wide-ranging discussion" with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and called the Pakistani tribal areas "central front in the war on terrorism," according to a statement released by Obama's Senate office.
"I had a productive and wide-ranging discussion with Prime Minister Gilani," Obama said in the statement. "Pakistan is an extremely important partner to the United States, and we covered a number of issues vital to the security of both our nations. We discussed how to more effectively deal with the central front in the war on terrorism -- the threat from al Qaeda and the Taliban originating from the Pakistani tribal areas -- which threatens the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
VIDEO: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama discusses the future of the conflict in Afghanistan and the security situation in Pakistan with NBC's Tom Brokaw on "Meet the Press." "We also discussed how to bolster opportunity for the Pakistani people, while consolidating democracy, the rule of law, and human rights in Pakistan, and curbing the proliferation of nuclear materials. Each of these steps is necessary to bring peace and stability to an increasingly volatile region of the world, and I look forward to working with the democratically elected government of Pakistan to make progress on these issues in the future."
In an interview with CNN after his meeting with Bush , Gilani called on the United States not to act “unilaterally” against militants in Pakistan.
“We must have more cooperation with each other and it’s our job because we are fighting the war for ourselves,” he said.
The Bush administration has engaged in such attacks since 9/11, and Obama has also advocated for such action, if necessary.
From NBC's Katie Mulhall and Alex Wall Obama campaign for an unprecedented $20 million effort to organize and mobilize Latino voters. Frank Sanchez, the chairman of the campaign's National Hispanic Leadership Council, and DNC Vice Chair Linda Chavez-Thompson called the initiative an “historic commitment” on a conference call this afternoon.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses today's political headlines including Barack Obama and John McCain courting Latino votes and McCain criticizing Obama on immigration reform. Sanchez noted that in 2004, according to findings by the Johns Hopkins Hispanic Voter Project, both presidential campaigns spent a combined $8.7 million on Latino-voter outreach. He used this figure to put the $20 million the Obama campaign and the DNC have committed into perspective.
Besides money, another key difference between this effort and past ones in 2000 and 2004 is just how early this year's outreach has started. “I can’t remember any campaign starting this early," Sanchez said. "I can’t remember this amount of resource both in terms of money and in terms of people power.”
“It’s nice to have the money. However, we’re talking about Latinos begging for the opportunity to be involved," Chavez-Thompson added. "Giving Latinos the opportunity to say ‘we will not be ignored’, I think that’s what Sen. Obama is telling us. He wants us to be at the table, he wants us to be involved."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Obama again visted veep vetter Eric Holder's office. Reporters following the candidate spotted him walking into Holder's downtown DC office building this afternoon. Obama was at the office yesterday as well.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
WASHINGTON, DC --
Obama discussed his own multi-ethnic family today as he spoke today at a fundraiser for Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders.
“Being here is especially meaningful to me because I consider myself to be an honorary AAPI member, and I think I’ve got some pretty good credentials,” Obama told donors at the Mayflower today.
His remarks focused heavily on immigration and Asian-American issues, according to a pool report of the event this afternoon at the Mayflower. That report described the crowd as heavy with South Asian, Southeast Asian and East Asian Americans, and Obama played up his connection to the community -- noting that he was born in Hawaii and raised for a time in Indonesia. He also said he had college roommates who were Indian and Pakistani (today he met with the Pakistani prime minister.
Attendees included those who’ve donated $500, up to those who have committed to raise $33,100. Several members of Congress also attended, including the aforementioned Rep. Mike Honda (D-CA).
Obama is currently meeting at the Federal Reserve with chairman Ben Bernanke. He also plans to speak with House Democrats later this afternoon before departing for Missouri.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain's campaign is out with some new luggage tags today for the traveling press. With McCain in Reno, Nev., the campaign features a photo of... the Reno 911 TV cast. those other luggage tags .
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann WASHINGTON -- Some guys would have walked out a side door with just a wave and a "no comment."Kaine held a full-blown press conference outside the Washington, D.C. radio station where he appeared to discuss state issues on a monthly radio show.
As in the radio interview, Kaine's press conference was peppered with questions about his rumored top spot as a vice presidential pick to the Democratic nominee. Kaine denied lobbying for the job -- a sure way not to get the job -- saying, "I have not sought it, I'm not running for it, I'm not asking for it. I've never asked anything of the campaign." Obama campaign. (But the governor said that he does "chat fairly often" with Obama, mostly about campaign efforts in home state Virginia.)
[EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this post incorrectly indicated that Kaine doesn't normally do the radio show from Washington, D.C. Kaine's office called First Read to let us know that Kaine, in fact, does normally do the show from D.C.]
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams and Mark Murray Ted Stevens (R) on charges related to a long-running investigation of business dealings in Alaska.
Stevens, who has served in the US Senate for 40 years, is up for re-election this year, and Democrats view his seat as one of their top pick-up opportunities.
*** UPDATE ***
However, before the general election, Stevens has to survive a GOP primary that occurs on August 26.
*** UDPATE II ***
Stevens is ranking member of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Obama, who is in DC today, spoke with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.
NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported earlier that
Obama also was to meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke .
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama and promote his economic agenda.
One mailing -- entitled "A message from your union" -- features this question: "Have questions about Barack Obama? See inside for answers." And inside, the mailing says that Obama does wear a flag pin on his lapel ; that he is a Christian; that he was sworn in on the Bible (not the Koran); that he was born in the United States; and that he places his hand over his heart when reciting the Pledge of Allegiance.
A second mailing features a testimonial from union members who support Obama's economic agenda. "We're voting for Obama because he's committed to ending special deals for big business and putting working families first. There's too much at stake to risk voting for anyone else," they say.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Ben Weltman Tim Kaine (D) is in Washington to talk traffic and see his daughter. Obama today, the vice presidential prospect replied, "My daughter and I are spending family time together today, and that's the only secret meeting that's going to happen."
VIDEO: While not making "categorical declarations," Gov. Tim Kaine says he's focused on running the state of Virginia and spending the day with his daughter, not talking to Barack Obama about a possible V.P. candidacy. The Virginia governor, whose status as a "seriously considered" candidate for the Democratic vice presidency is getting front-page treatment this morning, appeared on WTOP's "Hands Across the Potomac" radio show to talk with local leaders about congestion, housing prices, and other local issues.
But less than a third of the way through the hour-long program, Kaine faced questions about his rumored vetting to be Obama's second-in-command. "It's flattering to be mentioned," Kaine joked. "My mom loves it."
Further pressed as to whether or not he is being vetted, Kaine repeated his desire to stay mum. The decision, he said, is "for the campaign to decide."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** Raising Kaine: Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine is all the rage today -- with a front-page Washington Post piece saying that he has had “very serious” conversations about possibly becoming Obama’s veep pick, as well as a Politico article that has a source saying that Kaine is “very, very high on the short list.” What’s more, Kaine today just happens to be in Washington (for his WTOP interview at 10:00 am ET). And guess what? Obama’s in DC, too. For all we know, the two are meeting as you read this, or have already met (Obama had a VERY early call time this morning). Kaine’s strengths: He helps with the battleground of Virginia; reinforces Obama’s outside the Beltway message (although part of his state happens to be inside the Beltway); also reinforces Obama’s emphasis on faith (he’s a devout Catholic); speaks fluent Spanish (once serving as a missionary in Honduras); and is close to Obama. Kaine’s weaknesses: He has little name ID across the country; has no national security experience; and it’s debatable how much more support Obama might gain in Virginia with Kaine on the ticket -- given that Mark Warner and Jim Webb are also campaigning for him and given that Kaine’s geographic strength in the state is fairly similar to Obama’s. The Obama campaign isn't one that likes to surprise. Could it be they are sending a signal that Kaine is very likely, and if you don't speak now Dem special interest groupies, forever hold your peace?
VIDEO: NBC's Mark Murray takes a look at the various nation-wide polls and handicaps Obama's vice presidential short list. ***
Gallup, Gallup, Gallup: As many readers know, we're not fans of the Gallup tracking poll and yesterday was more proof why. Gallup has two samples out -- one (the daily tracking) with Obama up eight points and another (conducted for USA Today) with McCain up four points among likely voters and with Obama up three among registered voters. Somehow, technically, one can claim this all falls inside the various margins of error. But it's results like these that should remind us that even good pollsters are struggling to poll this year. This isn't an easy time for a pollster. The Gallup folks are in the charge of the best brand there is in public opinion research. So if they are getting screwy results, that should make you suspect of a lot of results you see, particularly on the state level by folks who claim to be pollsters but haven't been doing this for very long. We continue to recommend to folks that they do their best to get their hands on polling conducted by the campaign pollsters. These are folks who are in the field every day and get paid to get it right, not to get a story.
*** McCain and the health issue: Yesterday's very routine decision to remove a mole was a reminder of just how sensitive the campaign is regarding the health and age issue for McCain. The fact is there are many fair-skinned residents of Arizona who are 30 years younger than McCain that get moles removed out of precaution. But as we noted before, everything health related is under a microscope for McCain. Is it fair? No. And is it a double standard between how health issues are treated with Obama (see his hip deal on Sunday) versus McCain? Yes. It's the nature of the age beast. The health issue popping up yesterday -- just as when VP speculation was heating up -- only adds to McCain's need, potentially, to avoid an unknown and pick a VP that is viewed by the public as ready to be president. And speaking of McCain’s VP pick, do be sure to check out today’s Washington Times , which has some evangelicals who aren’t big fans of Romney being McCain’s choice.
*** Meet Evan Bayh: While Tim Kaine is all the rage today, we also turn our attention to Evan Bayh… He’s the son of former Sen. Birch Bayh, who ran for president in 1976 but -- speaking of veeps -- lost his Senate seat in 1980 to Dan Quayle… Attended elite prep school St. Alban's in Washington, DC, but chose to go to Indiana University for college… Was just 30 in 1986 when he became Indiana Secretary of State; became governor two years later at 32, despite Republicans having controlled the office for 20 years… Has twin 12-year-old boys… By September 2006, he raised $10.6 million for a potential White House run… Was viewed as a centrist Democrat (before it was apparent he was running for president), so he differs with Obama on some issues, particularly abortion. He has voted to ban partial-birth abortions, irritating women's groups, and is what is said to have derailed his chances to be Gore's VP in 2000… Questioned Obama's ability to legislate in March during the primary: "The question is, who is experienced enough, smart enough, tough enough to actually implement those plans? And I just think, look, Barack is a great guy; he's got a lot of strengths. But I find that [Clinton's] seasoning, deep experience, familiarity with these issues, gives us a better chance of getting the job done."
*** This year’s ballot initiatives: In 2004, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann notes, some analysts credited Bush’s squeaker win in Ohio to evangelical voters mobilized by opposition to a proposed same-sex marriage ban on the state ballot. Although most experts call that a myth -- discrediting the idea that such ballot initiatives actually boost turnout -- they still note that downballot issues are worth keeping on the radar screen. Initiatives on hot-button topics like affirmative action, gay marriage, stem cell research, and abortion are slated to appear on the 2008 ballots in some of the nation’s most contentious battleground states. Voters in Colorado, for example, will likely have the chance to weigh in on an initiative that would legally redefine fertilized eggs, as well as another that would ban race- and gender- based employment decisions. Same-sex marriage will be under the microscope in California, Arizona, and swing-state Florida (although state law requires its proposed ban to be passed by 60% of the vote in the Sunshine State). Such social-issue measures could put candidates in sticky positions, especially John McCain, who prefers to keep his social-issues stances out of the limelight in lieu of foreign and economic policy.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel takes a look at the presidential candidates could employ in three important battleground states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. ***
One to watch: But of all the ballot initiatives, Dann adds, here’s one that might be the most interesting as far as potential resonance with real live voters in a crucial swing state: The Ohio Healthy Families Initiative, expected to be approved for the November ballot, would mandate that all companies with more than 25 workers provide seven paid days of sick leave to employees. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that 71% of Ohioans support the sick leave requirement, which is almost identical to one in Obama’s proposed economic plan. Sen. John McCain opposes the measure.
*** On the trail: McCain spends his day in Nevada, attending a local leadership meeting in Reno, holding a town hall in Sparks, and raising money in Incline Village. He then heads to a fundraiser in Englewood, CO. Obama is in DC, where meets with Pakistan’s prime minister, national women leaders, and the House Democratic conference. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Today’s Washington Post : “Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had ‘very serious’ conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine. Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) are also being seriously vetted by the campaign staff, according to sources with knowledge of the process.”
VIDEO: While neither presidential candidate has announced a vice presidential pick yet, each has offered hints into what kind of running mate he's looking for. NBC's David Gregory reports. Meanwhile, the
New York Times’ Adam Nagourney reports that “there is mounting evidence that Mr. Obama’s interest in Mrs. Clinton for the post has faded considerably, if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him. In conversations, Mr. Obama’s advisers discuss Mrs. Clinton’s role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Mr. Obama’s running mate.”
And here go again -- evangelicals are warning McCain that picking Romney could hurt the GOP ticket. "They say Mr. Romney lacks trust on issues such as outlawing abortion and opposing same-sex marriage and because he is a Mormon. Opposition is particularly powerful among those who supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Republican presidential primaries earlier this year. ‘McCain and Romney would be like oil and water,’ said evangelical novelist Tim LaHaye, who supported Mr. Huckabee. ‘We aren't against Mormonism, but Romney is not a thoroughgoing evangelical and his flip-flopping on issues is understandable in a liberal state like Massachusetts, but our people won't understand that.’”
More compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger and Carrie Dann… DEMOCRATS: Sen. Joe Biden is outlining a $50 billion crime-fighting bill to bolster community-oriented policing, fight recidivism and capture child predators. Richmond Times-Dispatch quotes Kaine's father-in-law, former GOP Gov. Linwood Holton, who says that he originally advised the Virginia governor against the vice presidency but now is warming to the idea. REPUBLICANS: McCain wouldn’t say whether he’d announce before or after the Olympics. “I can tell you that I will announce it just as soon as the process is completed but it won’t be driven by any other factors, the Olympics, or any other,” he said on “Larry King Live.” “It will be strictly on when we can arrive at a conclusion and obviously it’s tough because we have so many highly qualified individuals.”
CONTINUED >>
The latest USA Today/Gallup poll: “Obama was ahead 47%-44% among registered voters, down from a 6-percentage point lead he had last month. McCain led 49%-45% among likely voters, reversing a 5-point Obama lead among that group. In both cases, the margin of error is +/- 4 points.”
“‘Registered voters are much more important at the moment,’ Gallup chief Frank Newport said. He said McCain's lead among likely voters suggests ‘the possibility's there that Republicans can get energized.’”
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd and NBC Political Analyst Mike Murphy join the "Morning Joe" team to discuss the changing polls and how difficult they have been during this election. In its fact-check of the Landstuhl controversy, the
New York Times says the McCain assertion that Obama cancelled his visit because the traveling press corps wouldn’t be allowed into Landstuhl “is not correct, Mr. Obama’s advisers say. Before his visit to Ramstein Air Base, which is near the medical center, was canceled, the plan called for reporters to stay behind at an airport terminal while Mr. Obama and one adviser met with the troops. Why? The Pentagon does not allow reporters and photographers inside Landstuhl. For weeks, Mr. Obama had been planning to visit wounded troops in Germany, just as he did in Afghanistan last week and previously had done at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington. Yet the Landstuhl visit carried more risk because it was to come in the middle of an overseas campaign trip.”
FactCheck.org adds, "A new McCain ad says Obama 'made time to go to the gym, but canceled a visit with wounded troops. Seems the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras.' McCain's facts are literally true, but his insinuation -- that the visit was canceled because of the press ban or the desire for gym time -- is false. In fact, Obama visited wounded troops earlier -- without cameras or press -- both in the U.S. and Iraq. And his gym workouts are a daily routine."
And here’s more criticism of McCain’s energy ad from a USA Today editorial: “Even by the elastic standards of political ads, this is more than a stretch. It's baloney. It's also a marker on the path toward the kind of simplistic, counterproductive demonizing that many expect will poison the fall campaign. Perhaps the silliest implication in the ad is that any one person, even a U.S. senator, is singlehandedly responsible for rising gasoline prices. ... The ad is right, at least in our view, in saying more drilling would help. But any implication that drilling alone would solve the energy problem is simply fiction that distracts attention from actually fixing the problem." More: "The pity of misleading ads like this is that McCain and Obama have both shown signs that they can embrace good ideas and elevate the debate. If 'Pump' represents the standard of truth in advertising for this presidential campaign, it's going to be a long and distressingly fact-free three months until Election Day."
Reuters : "Obama and McCain turn focus back to economy."
The AP's headline: "McCain backs off his no-new-tax pledge." "McCain drew a sharp rebuke Monday from conservatives after he signaled an openness to a higher payroll tax for Social Security, contrary to previous vows not to raise taxes of any kind." The Club for Growth was one conservative group that went after him in a letter.
The DNC has a new Web video hitting McCain on his support for lifting the moratorium on offshore drilling.
"Obama yesterday blamed 'irresponsible decisions' by the Bush administration and Wall Street for the country's economic woes as government officials said the budget deficit would soar to record heights next year." (Or here .)AP writes. "Independents and moderate Republican women remain a question mark, too. So Obama is working fiercely to win their votes. He has put out a report explaining what his economic plans would mean for women, reinforcing the message with town hall meetings devoted to the subject. He talks frequently about being raised by a single mother, her economic struggles (including a period on food stamps) and her worries about health insurance as she was dying of cancer. He's hired former Clinton aides, including Dana Singiser as a senior adviser on female voters. His Web site offers a prominent "welcome" to Clinton supporters and an extensive section for women. Aides are planning events nationwide on the 88th anniversary of the day American women won the right to vote."
VIDEO: Barack Obama and John McCain are both shifting towards the economy - the issue that concerns Americans the most. In Monday's "The Strategists," Republican strategist Ron Christie and Democratic strategist Rich Masters discuss what the candidates should do to convince voters they have the economic answers Americans need. RNC spokesman Alex Conant released this statement in anticipation of Obama’s meeting today with Pakistan’s prime minister. “Over the course of this campaign, Obama’s inexperience has led to careless statements about Pakistani sovereignty. We need to take every step necessary to fight terrorism, but careless statements from an inexperienced would-be commander-in-chief have no place in that constructive dialogue.”
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann… The
Washington Post reports that the DNC and the Obama campaign will pour $20 million into Hispanic outreach in battlegrounds with high Latino populations. "Targets will include Florida; Western states such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico; and Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, industrial battlegrounds with sizable Hispanic populations. The money will be spent on niche advertising and other outreach, along with mobilization efforts aimed at identifying, registering and turning out new Democratic voters."
IOWA: Pawlenty 2012 ? The Minnesota governor will be doing an awful lot of stumping in caucus state Iowa, with three visits planned in the next three months.
The
Des Moines Register's Yepsen writes, "While there's plenty of historic and electoral evidence to predict an Obama victory, those of us who dismissed McCain when he was in the primary doldrums may want to take a little time before we do it again." McCain finished
fourth in the Iowa caucuses -- behind Fred Thompson even -- and essentially pulled out to focus on New Hampshire.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: The
Washington Times pinpoints movement among independents in New Hampshire that could spell trouble for John McCain.
OHIO: PolitickerOH talked to RNC Chairman Mike Duncan about how he plans to combat Obama's grassroots effort. The answer: new phone technology and a leaner, meaner Republican operation.
VIRGINIA: A
new office in the heart of Shenandoah brings the Obama campaign's total in the Old Dominion to 25.
CALIFORNIA: Could the fact that Republicans have failed to put ballot inits on the state ballot in order to draw conservatives to the polls cause the GOP problems in some congressional races and other key state contests? "Republicans have been tripped up by mishaps and errors that have kept measures off the ballot. One leading ballot measure activist was sidelined for this November's contests after being arrested in Oklahoma on charges of violating petition rules. Some conservative strategists also blame a lack of new ideas for initiatives. They say the right, beaten down by the Republican Party's dismal rankings in the polls and its lukewarm electoral prospects, has no stomach this year for expensive initiative battles.”
”‘There has been a lack of funding on the right side, up and down. The right is despondent and demoralized,’ said Tim Mooney, an Arizona initiative consultant. At the same time, an energized left has fought harder to keep conservative-backed measures off ballots and put their own measures on them. Although there will be ballot measure fights in several states, many will be taking place in states where there is little question about the outcome of the Barack Obama vs. John McCain contest."
MICHIGAN: Michigan congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is locked in a tough reelection battle, encumbered by her scandal-ridden son -- Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. She enlisted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to campaign on her behalf as she prepares to face her primary challenger next week.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger and Carrie Dann Obama traveled Monday afternoon to the Washington office of Eric Holder, his vice presidential search committee chair. Campaign manager David Plouffe also joined him Monday on the road, a rare occurrence. Kaine “has emerged as one of the campaign’s potential finalists” for vice president, Politico says.
VIDEO: Time is running low for Barack Obama and John McCain to pick their running mates. NBC's David Gregory and Chuck Todd weigh in on the possible short lists. Also interviewed is analyst Mike Murphy. McCain told donors that choosing a veep is a “very tough decision” and said there were many “highly qualified people” to choose from, including party “stalwarts” to governors, senators and business people.
Terry McAuliffe told “Morning Joe” that Obama picking Hillary
Clinton would create a “
50-state sweep ” for the Democrats.
A dark horse being talked about on the McCain side is Federal Express CEO Frederick
Smith ,
Ambinder reports.
ON THE RECORD. McCain laid out his criteria for a veep to Bermuda donors via webcast: “You want to make sure you have a candidate that's not going to hurt the ticket,” he said. “The second thing is, and I think it's the key criteria, is it someone who shares your principles, your values, your philosophy and your priorities. The hardest thing for the president is to establish priorities and I'm -- I think we're blessed with having a wealth of candidates. But I haven't -- we really aren't mentioning names.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Hudspeth Obama will meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani tomorrow in DC, the campaign confirms. It will be a closed meeting.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy BAKERSFIELD, Calif. -- Speaking via webcast to donors gathered at a fundraiser on his behalf in Bermuda, McCain got a bit more specific about his vice presidential selection process than he has in recent weeks when speaking to reporters. But he stopped short of naming any names.
"I just want to assure you that we're going through the process," McCain said. "There are so many highly qualified people in our party ranging -- and I won't mention names -- but ranging from people who have been stalwarts in our party for a long time, and great governors and senators and business people. It's a very tough decision."
He then educated the listeners as to some of the criteria he is considering in selecting his running mate.
"You want to make sure you have a candidate that's not going to hurt the ticket," McCain said. "The second thing is, and I think it's the key criteria, is it someone who shares your principles, your values, your philosophy and your priorities. The hardest thing for the president is to establish priorities and I'm -- I think we're blessed with having a wealth of candidates. But I haven't -- we really aren't mentioning names."
From NBC's Alex Wall Bradley (D-NJ) said he would not accept a vice presidential offer from Obama in a conference call this afternoon.
VIDEO: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama discusses what he's looking for in a running mate with NBC's Tom Brokaw of "Meet the Press." When asked about the position by
NBC’s Andrea Mitchell , Bradley replied with a simple “no” and continued to discuss Obama’s meeting on the economy.
Bradley characterized the meeting as a “good exchange and free flow of discussion” while calling it a “very positive day.” He later added, “the meeting that was held here today is an example of Barack Obama putting the economy number one on his agenda.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Fiscal conservative group The Club for Growth went after presumptive GOP nominee McCain on social security.
"We listened with concern yesterday to your interview with George Stephanopoulos on Social Security," the club's president Pat Toomey writes in a letter to McCain. "When asked if you would be open to raising the payroll tax, you refused to rule out a tax increase, saying 'There is nothing that’s off the table.' This statement was particularly shocking because you have been adamant in your opposition to raising taxes under any circumstances."
Then, the club pulls out one of McCain's own quotes from February of this year: “No new taxes . . . In fact, I could see an argument, if our economy continues to deteriorate, for lower interest rates, lower tax rates, and certainly decreasing corporate tax rates, which are the second highest in the world, giving people the ability to write off depreciation in a year, elimination of the AMT.”
"We strongly applaud the above statement and believe further tax cuts would play an important role in stimulating the country’s economy," Toomey continues. "But your comments yesterday send American taxpayers and businesses a mixed message about where you stand on this issue."
The close: "We hope you will clarify where you stand on this important issue and reaffirm your commitment to eschew all tax increases."
Full letter:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
WASHINGTON -- After a week spent shoring up his foreign policy credentials with a trip overseas,
Obama turned his focus to the domestic economy with a meeting of economic advisers in Washington today. Saying that the there is an “economic emergency” that is “growing more severe, Obama called for bipartisan solutions while pinning some of the blame on Wall Street.
“It was not an accident or history nor a normal part of the business cycle that led us to this situation,” he said. “There were some irresponsible decisions that were made on Wall Street and in Washington. In the past few years, I think we learned an essential truth that in the long run we can't have a thriving Wall Street if we don't have a thriving Main Street.”
VIDEO: John R. Talbott, author of "Obamanomics," stops by "Morning Joe" to discuss his book, the state of the economy, and the potential economic policies of an Obama administration. He said the economic stimulus package enacted earlier this year has provided some relief, but said more action is necessary.
“I'm glad to see we have a broad representation of people here,” Obama said of the group joining him, which included former Republican and Democratic administration officials and business and labor leaders. “It's a group that I will be convening periodically over the next few months because of the dynamic situation and one that the next president will need to be prepared to deal with the moment he takes office.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Mark Murray
Obama hasn't been the only one
who's been to the doctor lately ...
McCain had a regular three-month check-up this morning in Phoenix, and the doctor decided to remove a mole-like growth from the right side of his face near the temple, according to a spokesperson for the campaign. The removal was precautionary and the doctor was not concerned about a recurrence of the skin cancer that has left a scar along his left cheek, the spokesperson said.
The campaign's spokesperson was vague about whether McCain was awaiting further tests -- but repeatedly reassured the press corps that there was nothing to worry about and the procedure was purely a precaution.
*** UPDATE ***
NBC's Kelly O'Donnell adds he responded "absolutely" and gave a thumbs up when asked if his doctor thinks he is fine.
Advisors say they are waiting on the written statement from Dr. Connolly, McCain's dermatologist expected within the hour.
Before ending his news conference, McCain implored the country to "wear sunscreen" and said melanoma was avoidable.
"If you have any slight discoloration, go to your dermatologist," McCain said, before joking that that was the end of his lecture from the American Dermatologists Association.*** UPDATE II ***
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama TV ad on MTV and Comedy Central. The ad -- which won MoveOn's “funniest video” in its recent ad contest -- features Rider Strong of "Boy Meets World" and Amber Benson of "Buffy the Vampire Slayer."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Obama departed Reagan-National Airport in DC 10 minutes ago en route to his economic event.
It's worth noting that campaign manager David Plouffe is traveling with the candidate today (which I understand has happened only a handful of times so far this campaign). He's joining David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs for the DC trip.
As I noted Friday, Caroline Kennedy is in Washington or a DNC Victory Fund event. Eric Holder, the other VP search team leader, is based in DC.
The convergence of all the senior staff here with that search committee only further signals that the process is at a critical stage. The campaign, of course, is not commenting on it.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann and NBC’s Alex Wall
Gov. Ed
Rendell (D-PA) called
Obama’s growing grassroots organization in Pennsylvania “unprecedented” and said that he was “confident” but not “overconfident” of an Obama victory in the Keystone State, in a conference call this morning.
Craig Schirmer, Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign state director, emphasized the campaign’s 24 state offices and approximately 700 neighborhood teams as key for Obama’s success in November.
“Our campaign has been about the grassroots,” Schirmer said. “Every day, Americans have been working to enact change through D-I-Y, or what I like to call do-it-yourself.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Obama's economic meeting today? Former Bush Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, who famously broke with the Bush Administration in Ron Suskind's book, "The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and Education of Paul O'Neill."
Below is the entire list of participants, according to the campaign:Bill Bradley , former US senator, managing director of Allen & Company
-- Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
-- Anna Burger, secretary-treasurer, SEIU
-- Jon Corzine , governor of New Jersey
-- William Daley, former Commerce secretary, JP Morgan Chase
-- James Dimon, chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase
-- William Donaldson, SEC chairman, 2003-2005
-- Indra Nooyi, chairman of PepsiCo
-- Paul O'Neill, former Treasury secretary, Blackstone Group, Alcoa special Adviser
-- Federico Peña, former Energy and Transportation secretary, Vestar Capital Partners
-- Penny Pritzker, CEO of Classic Residence by Hyatt
-- Robert Reich, former Labor secretary, professor at the University of California (Berkeley)
-- Robert Rubin, former Treasury secretary, Citigroup
-- Eric Schmidt, chairman and CEO of Google
-- William Spriggs, economics professor and chairman of the department at Howard University
-- Lawrence Summers, former Treasury secretary and former president of Harvard and
-- John Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO
-- Laura Tyson, former chairman of Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** Analyze this: We’ve now crossed the 100-day mark before Election Day, and the chattering class is going to obsessed with two things this week: 1) over-analyzing the veepstakes and 2) over-analyzing any overseas bounce for Obama. So here's your handy-dandy pundits question prep guide for both topics, especially for the many of you going online or on the air to talk about both.
*** The big hint? Speaking of veepstakes, did Obama during his Meet the Press interview give a hint whom he WOULDN’T pick? Check out this line: “I'm going to want somebody with integrity; I'm going to want somebody with independence, who's willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I'm wrong; and I'm, I'm going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country where we need to go, that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how our politics works, how business is done in Washington.” Did he just rule out that he would pick a sitting Democratic US senator? Try and use that description Obama gave with Bayh, Biden, Clinton, or Reed? Now, try using it with Kaine, Sebelius, Nunn, or Hagel? Just sayin’… If Obama picks someone from the first group, he's going to have a tough time making the case that this person has shown a history of changing the way business is done in Washington. Frankly, it's tough naming any Washington player using that standard. As for McCain, it's amazing how convinced so many are in the media and in the GOP chattering class that the candidate has whittled his list down to two: Romney and Pawlenty.
VIDEO: Announcing a meeting on Monday between himself and his "core economic advisors," with the intention of examining fiscal policies they've put forward, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama discusses the state of the economy and his economic policies with NBC's Tom Brokaw of "Meet the Press." ***
Pivoting to the economy: Barack Obama, you’ve returned from a successful trip overseas. What are you going to do next? I'm going to talk about the economy… Today, in DC, Obama will meet with some of his top economic advisers -- including investor Warren Buffett, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney, SEIU Secretary-Treasurer Anna Burger, and Google chairman and CEO Eric Schmidt. There will be a photo spray of the meeting.
*** You’ve gotta believe: McCain's latest TV ad hit on Obama blasts the Illinois senator for canceling a visit to meet with wounded US troops at the Landstuhl military base. Like other McCain attack ads on the air, it’s a bit over the top; it asks the voter to believe something that seems hard to believe -- that Obama doesn’t care about US troops. (In fact, in the advertisement, the McCain campaign contradicts its message by using footage of Obama actually playing basketball with US troops in Kuwait.) This McCain ad follows another one blaming Obama for high gas prices -- once again, an attack that doesn't seem believable. (Will voters actually believe Obama's to blame for high gas prices?) A negative ad is always more effective when the attack is believable, when it speaks to a question the voter has already pondered in his own head. And just asking: If the McCain campaign is airing TV ads that voters don’t find believable, what does that do to McCain’s straight-talk image? McCain seems off message. The good news for some conservatives is that McCain is disproving the prediction that he wouldn't be personally tough on Obama. But how long will McCain be comfortable in this role? Can't you picture McCain deciding he doesn't want to be the attacker anymore and suddenly decides he wants to go a different route?
*** Is it personal? One more thought about the Landstuhl TV ad: Obama cancelling his meeting with US troops really seems to have bothered McCain and his campaign -- personally. Do read this quote in the Washington Post from a GOP strategist: “‘They couldn't help themselves,’ the strategist said, adding that the ad over the hospital visit is ‘churlish and unlike McCain, and hardly will resonate with the swing voters who are going to decide this election.’ The strategist continued: ‘They're doing it because the candidate, and the campaign, is not happy with where they are and they're lashing out.’” Also, is this the beginning of wave of blind GOP quotes we’re going to start to see from Republicans complaining about McCain’s campaign… again?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd talks about Sen. Barack Obama's trip abroad, Sen. John McCain's reaction to it, and how soon we can expect to see vice president picks. ***
A little sensitive, are we? By the way, seeing the Obama campaign’s cancellation of the troop turn into a controversy is a reminder of just how sensitive Democrats are regarding the troops. They made the decision that they'd get more criticism for politicizing a visit with wounded troops than not going at all. Our question: Why not dare your opponents for criticizing you for visiting troops if you really thought that? It seems like a decision made due to lack of sleep… For what it's worth -- and this will be the thing the McCain campaign takes away from this weekend back-and-forth -- McCain does seem to have gotten some traction on this attack, even if the facts aren't clearly on his side. But in order to win this back-and-forth, the campaign had to put up an attack ad doing and use the candidate to attack Obama personally as well. Was it worth the news cycle win?
*** On the trail: McCain is in Bakersfield, CA, where he raises money. Obama is in DC, where he meets with members of his economic team and later heads to a fundraiser in Arlington, VA. And Michelle Obama is in Chicago, where she hosts a “Women for Obama” luncheon.
Bloomberg's Al Hunt looks at this tweener period between the primaries and the general, and notes that Obama appears to be winning this middle period. Hunt also previews Obama's August a bit. “Obama's eight-day trip to the Middle East war zones and Europe was almost perfect. The Democratic candidate looked and sounded presidential and reassuring, while avoiding missteps. The contrasts, often unfairly, with McCain at home were stunning. One looking vigorous in a helicopter over Iraq, the other in a golf cart with former President George H. W. Bush -- 155 years of age between them.”
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the importance of Barack Obama's speech in Berlin and the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which has Obama leading John McCain by six points. Hunt also previews Obama’s August a bit, too. "The Obama camp anticipates a good next month. He's planning a ‘Biography Tour' aimed at filling in the blanks -- and alleviating concerns -- about his life and values. They have the skill and resources to do this well. The Denver convention plans are different, too. For the final speech, instead of speaking to a hall full of delegates as candidates of both parties have done for seven decades, Obama, 46, will deliver his acceptance speech outdoors before 75,000 people at Invesco Field. The symbolism is clear. (If Obama's luck holds, it will be a clear night, as they calculated it rarely rains in Denver in August.)”
“The convention's first three days will also be different. They want to downplay the parade of candidates trying to get television exposure, with evenings built around central figures. If it works, there will be simultaneous town meetings and forums around the country interactively linked to the site of the convention."
The cover of the NY Daily News : "Obama's poll vault." The paper cites Obama's nine-point (49%-40%) lead in the Gallup Daily tracking poll.
"With 100 days remaining in the race for the White House, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama says he has succeeded in expanding the electoral map in his race against John McCain, principally in southern and southwestern states but also in Montana and North Dakota. 'It doesn't mean we're going to win all those states but at least we're making it a contest and giving voters something to choose from,' he said in an interview aboard his campaign jet on the way back from an overseas trip. 'Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia are all states where we are competitive," he said, adding he is going 'toe to toe' with his rival in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada."
MICHIGAN: The Chicago Tribune’s Jill Zuckman notes that this could be a challenge for Obama in the fall. “This normally reliable state for Democrats may not be so reliable this year as issues of race and class cloud the election and voters say they still know little about the Democratic nominee because of a botched primary that kept him away.”
OHIO: RNC Chairman Mike Duncan says that, although the map is rife with new battlegrounds, the old favorites are still king, "From a practical standpoint, Ohio is going to be ground zero again," he said during his visit there last week.
PENNSYLVANIA: A very good piece by the McClatchy folks taking a look at how economically depressed white voters in the northeast part of the state aren't yet on the Obama bandwagon.
On Meet the Press yesterday, Obama said this about selecting his VP: “I'm going to want somebody with integrity; I'm going to want somebody with independence, who's willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I'm wrong; and I'm, I'm going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country where we need to go, that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how our politics works, how business is done in Washington.
VIDEO: Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama discusses what he's looking for in a running mate with NBC's Tom Brokaw of "Meet the Press." More: “I think the most important thing from my perspective is somebody who can help me govern. I want somebody who I'm compatible with, who I can work with, who has a shared vision, who certainly complements me in the sense that they provide a knowledge base or an area of, of expertise that can be useful. Because we're going to have a lot of problems and a lot of work to do, and I'm not interested in a vice president who I just send off to go to funerals. I want somebody who's going to be able to roll up their sleeves and really do some work.”
On Hillary Clinton, he repeated this line: I think Hillary Clinton would be on anybody's short list. She, she is one of the most effective, intelligent, courageous leaders that we have in the Democratic Party.”
But the New York Sun doesn't miss these very intriguing comments Obama made about his VP -- and how they may have eliminated Clinton from contention.
Go back and read Obama's words carefully. Did he also eliminate Bayh and Biden, too?
Would Dems really tolerate a Bush cabinet member as Obama's running mate? Ann Veneman is reportedly being floated .
The Boston Globe has a front-page story on Pawlenty. "The rapport between the two men, evident throughout long days on the campaign trail, now is being cited as one of the main reasons that Pawlenty has risen in speculation as McCain's possible running mate. ... If McCain is looking for a close friend whose loyalty is beyond question, Pawlenty could be his vice presidential pick, political observers said. Pawlenty might also help McCain win Minnesota, where a recent poll showed the race is statistically tied." Boston Globe reports on the Kaine buzz.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes about the state of the race and notes: "McCain’s annoyance with the international coverage of Mr. Obama mounted steadily last week. He accused the news media of showing favoritism toward Mr. Obama. Over the last two days, his campaign has strongly implied that Mr. Obama declined to meet with wounded American troops at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany after he learned that he could not bring television cameras along. ‘I know of no Pentagon regulation that would have prevented him from going there, without the media and the press and all of the associated people,’ Mr. McCain said in the ABC interview.”
“Mr. Obama, who visited wounded troops in Iraq without notifying the news media, and has visited injured soldiers in the United States, said he was not traveling with an official delegation and did not want to politicize the visit."
VIDEO: Barack Obama's overseas trip was a success, causing the McCain camp to charge the media of bias. Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis talks with Keith Olbermann about John McCain's relationship with the media. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports that there was never a plan for Obama to take the press to Landstuhl, despite the claim by McCain folks and others. The plan was to go with his military aide, retired General Scott Gration. The Pentagon said Gration was off-limits because he had joined the campaign -- violating rules that it not be a political stop.
Obama had gone to see wounded troops in Iraq earlier in the week, without even confirming he'd been there. No press, no pictures. He has done the same when he goes to Walter Reed -- never any press.
The Washington Post also notes the ratcheted up rhetoric over Obama's decision to skip visiting troops in Germany, as well as on the issue of Iraq. "McCain's comments came days after he said in New Hampshire, ‘It seems to me that Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.’ They appear to reflect the campaign's belief that it can make inroads with voters by keeping the focus on foreign policy issues after Obama's return from a week-long trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East and Western Europe. The moves puzzled some GOP strategists, who said McCain would be better off touting a more positive message, and the senator from Arizona drew a strong rebuke from a longtime ally, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), who traveled with Obama last week to Afghanistan and Iraq as part of a congressional delegation."
More: "One GOP strategist with close ties to McCain's campaign said the new line of attack reflected the operation's ‘schizophrenic’ nature. He said that tendency was also on display last week, as McCain spoke at length about media coverage of Obama rather than sticking with his plan to focus on the economy. ‘They couldn't help themselves,’ the strategist said, adding that the ad over the hospital visit is ‘churlish and unlike McCain, and hardly will resonate with the swing voters who are going to decide this election.’ The strategist continued: ‘They're doing it because the candidate, and the campaign, is not happy with where they are and they're lashing out.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times makes a good point about how last week was about Obama defining his 2008 opponent as Bush -- which may explain why McCain had such a hard time inserting himself into the story. The natural opponent for Obama last week was Bush, not McCain. "Though his language was muted, it was still clear that he was offering himself as the un-Bush, promising a less ideological American partner who would join forces on climate change, "reject torture and stand for the rule of law," and work jointly for nuclear disarmament. "The walls between old allies on either side of the Atlantic cannot stand," he said.”
The Washington Post looks at Obama's attempts to increase black turnout. "If 95 percent of black voters support Obama in November, in line with a recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, he can win Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004, assuming he performs at the same levels that Democratic candidate John F. Kerry did with other voters that year. Obama can win Nevada if he increases black turnout by 8 percent. Ohio was so close in 2004 that if Obama wins 95 percent of the black vote, more than Kerry did, he will win the state without a single extra voter. But an increase in overall black turnout could help offset a poorer performance among other voters.”
“The push has also raised Democrats' hopes of reclaiming Southern states with large black populations, such as Georgia and North Carolina, where low turnout among voters of all races has left much more untapped potential than in traditionally competitive states such as Ohio. Obama, who himself led a huge voter-registration drive in Chicago in 1992, has said he could compete in states such as Mississippi by increasing black turnout by 30 percent."
Obama visited an orthopedic doctor for a sore hip from playing basketball, the campaign said.
Per NBC’s Louis Burgdorf and Abigail Williams… As the hands of Big Ben struck noon in London on Saturday Obama sat with Great Britain's opposition leader, David Cameron, advocating something groundbreaking: thinking. After a whirlwind tour of Europe and the Middle East visiting as many as eight countries in nine days, Cameron asked Obama, "Have you had a break at all?" Obama admitted he hoped to take a week in August, but emphasized the importance of refreshing yourself.
The two also discussed the inherent difficulties in having time to process a constant stream of information when your schedule is often splintered into fifteen minute increments. "You have a bunch of smart people out there that know ten times more than we do about the specifics of the topic and if what you're trying to do is micromanage and solve everything, you end up being a dilettante," Obama said, as he also pinpointed the risks: "You start making mistakes or you lose the big picture."
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger… REPUBLICANS: Nine GOP senators up for re-election this year are
skipping the Republican convention or have said they haven’t yet decided if they will attend. Among those not attending: Susan Collins of Maine, who is close to McCain. Aides said they have a difficult landscape and only a limited time to campaign.
Ticket sales for Ron Paul’s Rally for the Republic did well on Friday, when they went on sale. The Campaign for Liberty reports more than 5,000 tickets were purchased in the first two hours. (press release)
DEMOCRATS: Drafts of the Invesco Field speech plans has Obama
accepting the Democratic nomination at the 50-yard line . He will walk from the main stage along the sidelines to a carpeted podium 6 ½ feet off the ground. The rest of the field will be filled by delegates.
The Wisconsin DNC delegate who says she’s supporting McCain has been
ousted . The Wisconsin Democratic Party voted Friday to strip Debra Bartoshevich of her delegate status. She was elected as a pledged delegate for Hillary Clinton and said in June she won’t support Obama. She asked the party to attend the convention as a Clinton delegate and said she hasn’t made up her mind who to support in November.
Financial difficulties have
forced Denver to shelve more than two dozen convention parties. Local business leaders say money they would have donated is being diverted to union-led ballot initiatives they are fighting.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
CHICAGO -- There was no rest for the weary as
Obama attended a meeting of minority journalists today, just hours after returning from a whirlwind eight-day trip abroad that he deemed a success.
Obama said he was puzzled by the criticism by some of his trip abroad as “audacious” or somehow inappropriate, arguing as he did in a press conference yesterday that
McCain had also traveled to these countries -- as well as to Mexico, Canada ,and Colombia after winning his party’s nomination.
“Nobody suggested that that was 'audacious.' I think people assumed that what he was doing was talk to world leaders who we may have deal with should we become president. That's part of the job that I'm applying for,” he said. “Now, I admit we did it really well. But that shouldn't be a strike against me. You know, if I was bumbling and fumbling through this thing, I would have been criticized for that."
VIDEO: Barack Obama spent the week overseas, but can the Democratic candidate's globetrotting really sway voters in the United States? A Race for the White House panel discusses. The senator said he felt he had been able to assure world leaders that he would have to work with if he becomes president. “I do think that, in terms of me governing, being an effective president, that this trip was helpful, because I think I've established relationships and a certain bond of trust with key leaders around the world who have taken measure of my positions and how I operate and I think can come away with some confidence that this is somebody I can deal with."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain on Friday seemed to agree with Obama that 16 months is a "good timetable" for withdrawing from Iraq (as long as it's based on conditions on the ground), the McCain campaign is now arguing that Obama is adopting McCain's position that troop levels in Iraq will be "entirely conditions-based."
"Today, Barack Obama finally abandoned his dangerous insistence on an unconditional withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq by making clear that for the foreseeable future, troop levels in Iraq will be 'entirely conditions based,'" McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann said in a statement. "We welcome this latest shift in Sen. Obama's position, but it is obvious that it was only a lack of experience and judgment that kept him from arriving at this position sooner."
But the remark the McCain campaign is jumping on -- from Obama's interview with Newsweek's Richard Wolffe -- pertains to residual forces, not withdrawal from Iraq. From the interview...
Obama: I also think that Maliki recognizes that they're going to need our help for some time to come, as our commanders insist, but that the help is of the sort that is consistent with the kind of phased withdrawal that I have promoted. We're going to have to provide them with logistical support, intelligence support. We're going to have to have a very capable counterterrorism strike force. We're going to have to continue to train their Army and police to make them more effective.
Wolffe: You've been talking about those limited missions for a long time. Having gone there and talked to both diplomatic and military folks, do you have a clearer idea of how big a force you'd need to leave behind to fulfill all those functions?
Obama: I do think that's entirely conditions-based. It's hard to anticipate where we may be six months from now, or a year from now, or a year and a half from now.
Keeping residual forces in and around Iraq is something that Obama has consistently talked about. As Obama told the late Tim Russert at the MSNBC debate in September 2007: "The only troops that would remain [in Iraq] would be those that have to protect U.S. bases and U.S. civilians, as well as to engage in counterterrorism activities in Iraq."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Louis Burgdorf McCain campaign yesterday unveiled its latest TV ad, which hits Obama for -- among other things -- cancelling a visit to meet with wounded US soldiers at Landstuhl. "He made time to go to the gym, but cancelled a visit with wounded troops," the ad goes. "Seems the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras. John McCain is always there for our troops
(While Obama didn't visit with those US soldiers at Landstuhl, he did talk to some of them by phone .)
Politico wrote that the ad ran on Saturday Night Live in Denver, CO last night. And today, it will run in the DC market, as well as in Harrisburg, PA.
In response to the TV ad, the Obama campaign released a statement from Sen. Jack Reed (D), who accompanied Obama on his swing through Afghanistan and Iraq. “I was with Sen. Obama last week as we met privately with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Sen. Obama listened to their concerns and expressed his gratitude for their service without press or fanfare. He cares for our troops deeply and has worked hard to give them not only the resources they need, but also honor their service with a clearly defined mission and by providing them with the support they have earned when they come home."
Chuck Hagel (R), who also was on the overseas trip, said on CBS this morning that the McCain ad "was inappropriate." He said, "I think it would be totally inappropriate for [Obama], on a campaign trip, to go to a military hospital and use those soldiers as props... We saw troops everywhere we went on the congressional delegation. We went out of our way to see those troops. We wanted to see those troops."
And as one Obama aide points out to First Read, the footage the McCain TV ad uses when saying Obama went "to the gym but cancelled a visit with wounded troops" is when Obama was playing basketball with US troops in Kuwait. "It undermines the credibility of the ad" and proves that the ad is "nothing more than a political attack," the aide says.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
LONDON -- During a 15-minute press conference outside of 10 Downing Street here today,
Obama responded to
McCain's criticism of his five-country swing through Europe and the Middle East, as well as his Republican rival's comments on a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq.
"It's hard for me to understand Sen. McCain's argument. He was telling me I was supposed to take this trip. He suggested it, thought it was a good idea," the senator told reporters, some of whom were seated on the ground in front of him and or standing on the sidewalk across.
"John McCain has visited every one of these countries post-primary that I have. He has given speeches in Canada, in Colombia, Mexico," he continued. "So it doesn't strike me that we've done anything different than the McCain campaign has done, which is to recognize that part of the job of the next president and commander-in-chief is to forge effective relationships with our allies."
VIDEO: Speaking in London, Barack Obama defended his travels to Europe and the Middle East, arguing that America faces global issues that cannot be solved independently. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. McCain's comment that a 16-month timetable for withdrawing from Iraq could be good -- adding that it would have to be based on conditions on the ground -- was a sign that "there has been some convergence around proposals that we've been making for a year and a half" on this and issues like increasing troop levels in Afghanistan and negotiating directly with Iran, Obama said.
"The fact that John McCain now thinks that it's possible for us to execute a phased withdrawal -- I think that's a positive thing," he said. "And if the Administration believes that as well, then I will, I will be fully supportive."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Providence Journal this afternoon.
Reed was asked: "If you were offered this position you would decline, is that correct?"
"Yeah," he answered, "but I frankly I don't expect to be offered the position."
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain said that withdrawal from Iraq in 16 months is "a pretty good timetable."
That answer came when McCain was asked about Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki's earlier claim to Der Spiegel that Obama's 16-month plan "would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."
Of course, McCain did stress that such a withdrawal would "have to be based on conditions on the ground." But calling 16 months a "good timetable" is something McCain hasn't said before -- and probably never would have said a week ago.
The transcript:BLITZER: What if Maliki persists? You're president and he says he wants US troops out and he wants them out, let's say in a year or two years or 16 months or whatever. What do you do? Do you listen to the prime minister?
MCCAIN: He won't. He won't. He won't. Because it has to be condition-based.
BLITZER: How do you know?
MCCAIN: Because I know him. And I know him very well. And I know the other leaders. And I know -- I've been there eight times, as you know. I know them very, very well.
BLITZER: So why do you think he said that 16 months is basically a pretty good timetable?
MCCAIN: He said it's a pretty good timetable based on conditions on the ground. I think it's a pretty good timetable, as we should -- or horizons for withdrawal. But they have to be based on conditions on the ground.
From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski Obama has every right to stay in touch with America's men and women in uniform. According to Pentagon officials, the problem was that Obama's request to visit Landstuhl included two members of his campaign staff -- retired Major General Jonathan S. Gration and Jeff Kiernan. US military officials in Germany informed the campaign the two political operatives would not be permitted on base.
Pentagon officials say Gration was the campaign's point of contact at Landstuhl in arranging Obama's visit and "got torqued" when he was told he would not be permitted to join Obama. It was Gration who later suggested to reporters that the Pentagon short-circuited Obama's visit.
Are there some in the Pentagon or military resentful because Gration has climbed on board the Obama campaign? Did Gration overreact? As a former policy director for the US European Command, he would surely be disappointed -- if not offended -- by being excluded from the visit. It's also been my experience that even retired generals do not want to hear the word "no."
Whatever the reason, Obama and the troops he would have visited have both missed a unique and historic opportunity. According to one Army lieutenant colonel, "Everyone was excited about Obama's visit. It's a shame."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain gave a speech here today at the American GI Forum National Convention that served as a wide-ranging defense of his position on the Iraq war -- as well as a biting condemnation of Obama’s war policy.
“Sen. Obama and I also faced a decision, which amounted to a real-time test for a future commander-in-chief,” McCain said of the 2007 debate over the surge. “America passed that test. I believe that my judgment passed that test. And I believe that Sen. Obama's failed.”
According to McCain, American voters should look at how the two candidates’ handled that decision and use that to make their decisions in November. “Because of the choice we made and all the surge has accomplished, the time will soon come when our troops can come home,” he said.
In response to McCain's remarks, the Obama campaign released this statement from former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who like McCain is a Vietnam vet. "As is often the case in politics, the most important questions do not get debated while the most trivial ones are pushed front and center. Such is the case with the current attacks by Sen. McCain's supporters purporting that Sen. Obama's failure to support the surge demonstrates he has been wrong on this important foreign policy question," Kerrey said.
"Assessing all facts available to us today, Sen. Obama's judgment six years ago looks a whole lot better today than either Sen. McCain's or mine was back then.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy greeted one another in front of a crush of photographers, camera crews, and reporters here at the Elysee Palace today before meeting for about an hour to discuss issues ranging from Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran to climate change and peace in the Middle East.
The visit marked the fourth day of a five-country swing through the Middle East and Europe meant to burnish Obama's foreign policy credentials.
In the press conference after their meeting, the two men appeared comfortable, cracking jokes before making statements about the importance of a strong relationship between the United States and France and its other European allies.
Obama spent several minutes talking about Iran, an issue he stressed throughout a press conference in Sderot, Israel earlier in the week. He spoke of the need for the United States and Europe to be partners in negotiating with the country about its nuclear program, saying a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a grave threat and could embolden terrorists and spark a dangerous arm race in the Middle East.
"I applaud France's current role in the E.U. three-plus-three efforts to use strong diplomacy to end this threat," he said. "It's important as we move forward for the United States and our European allies to remain full partners in this effort."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Adam Verdugo Karl Rove's new electoral map , Obama is leading McCain , 272-183 -- with 83 electoral votes in the toss-up category.
Note that the map is as of July 23, so it doesn't take into account the recent Quinnipiac polling in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. But per this map -- right now -- Obama could lose every toss-up state (Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada) and still win the presidential election.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube Obama campaign, came to the back of the plane at least three separate times to explain to reporters that the decision to cancel the senator's trip to Ramstein and Landstuhl came after word from the Pentagon that it would violate Defense Department regulations.
The impromptu briefing stemmed from confusion about two statements put out by the campaign -- one from Gibbs and the other from Gen. Scott Gration -- about the cancellation. Gibbs' statement had not mentioned the discussion with the Pentagon, while Gration's did.
"The statement that I sent out and the statement that Gen. Gration sent out are consistent in that what Gen. Gration learned from the Pentagon that the trip to Ramstein and Landstuhl will be viewed as a campaign stop," Gibbs said. "The decision that Sen. Obama made with that information was that we would not put our warriors in the position of being involved in a campaign stop. Therefore, he made the decision not to make the stop."
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From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski Obama made phone calls to wounded soldiers at Landstuhl Germany this morning, in lieu of a personal visit to the forces that was canceled by the Obama campaign.
Obama was expected to speak to a number of soldiers individually.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro The turning point? So was this week a turning point in the presidential race? The Obama campaign certainly believes it was, and that this will be the moment that Obama grabs the lead for good. If McCain never catches up at this point, his campaign's actions this week (its blistering criticism of Obama and the media, the visuals it picked, its body language, its VP games) will get second-guessed for months. We know this was a significant week; the question is was it enough to erase the doubts voters have with Obama about his ability to be commander-in-chief? But just asking: Did this week tell us more about Obama or McCain? Watching McCain chasing the news cycle and his inability to not let Obama get under his skin -- and the campaign's -- suggests that they could be reactive from this day forward. Why, for instance, did the campaign insist on the equal treatment (see network interviews) this week and not simply attempt to create its own week of coverage from the nets? They were second fiddle all week, and seemed to almost demand being highlighted in that way.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel debates: Where is Barack Obama weak politically and how effectively has the McCain campaign been capitalizing on those weaknesses? ***
This race is McCain’s to win, too : Can the McCain camp win by simply hoping for an Obama slip-up or by reacting faster and faster? Yesterday in First Read, we noted that NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart said this election was Obama’s to win. But isn’t that also true for McCain? McCain can't simply hope Obama loses this election or fails to adjust his campaign sail enough to capture the strong Democratic wind. Yesterday, actually, McCain finally seemed comfortable being the broccoli candidate -- embracing his role as the serious guy juxtaposed to the rock star opponent. Will the campaign around him have the patience to accept McCain's "keep on keeping on" promise he made to NBC's Kelly O'Donnell?
*** VP's coming? One of these days the McCain campaign won't be "crying VP" and will actually announce his pick. Today's Washington Post has a defensive “the pick could be coming any day now” story. “Anxious to counter the blanket media coverage that has followed Sen. Barack Obama on his overseas journey, Sen. John McCain is weighing whether to announce his running mate in the coming weeks before the spotlight shifts to China and the opening of the Olympic Games next month. ‘He's in a position to make [the decision] on short notice if he wanted to,’ said McCain's chief strategist Charlie Black. Bottom line: The media is being put on notice that the pick could come at any time, with the campaign hinting big time that McCain's going to make the pick before the Olympics. As for Obama's timing, considering how the campaign likes to let big events sink in, it seems highly unlikely they'll step on their own post-trip bounce (if they believe they'll be getting one) by announcing the VP next week. That leaves just one week before the Olympics if next week is indeed out.
*** About that Landstuhl visit : Perhaps the sole bump the Obama campaign hit this week was the minor controversy that erupted when Obama’s campaign decided to skip a visit to Landstuhl to meet with injured US soldiers. The Obama camp put out two statements, the first from retired Gen. Scott Gration: “Sen. Obama had hoped to and had every intention of visiting our troops to express his appreciation and gratitude for their service to our country. We learned from the Pentagon last night that the visit would be viewed instead as a campaign event. Sen. Obama did not want to have a trip to see our wounded warriors perceived as a campaign event when his visit was to show his appreciation for our troops and decided instead not to go.” The other was from strategist Robert Gibbs: “The senator decided out of respect for these servicemen and women that it would be inappropriate to make a stop to visit troops at a U.S. military facility as part of a trip funded by the campaign."
*** The rules : NBC’s Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski breaks down the rules for these kind of visits: “Political candidates, including the president, are not permitted to use military facilities as a campaign backdrop or anything that could be perceived as being part of a political campaign. Now, of course, we know those lines can be blurred in the president for example has some official purpose for appearing at a military installation. As a member of the Armed Service Committee John McCain could also have a legitimate reason for visiting a military base and attracting media coverage, but it hasn't happened and I think both sides would take a serious look at the implications. The other issue is concern over exploitation of the wounded, for any reason. When the president, the Defense secretary, or any member of Congress visit the wounded at a military hospital the media are not invited to cover the event.” Bottom line from us: The Obama campaign was being overly cautious, worried about the exploitation factor. (The real cynic might believe Obama realized he couldn't bring cameras so THAT's why he canceled). The McCain campaign decided to hit him -- and probably would have done it either way. It was a tiny press victory for McCain in a sea of disasters for the week.
*** Meet Tim Kaine : Tim Kaine is yet another Harvard law grad in those up for consideration for VP this cycle… While he eventually got his degree from Harvard law, Kaine -- a devout Catholic -- left midway through to embark on a nine-month Jesuit mission in Honduras, where he taught welding and carpentry to teenagers… He speaks fluent Spanish… Plays harmonica, sings in the church choir, and apparently likes Charlie Parker-era jazz… Kaine's father-in-law was Virginia's first Republican governor in the 20th century… He and Obama are close; Obama campaigned for Kaine during his governor's race… Like Obama, Kaine was a civil-rights attorney before going into politics… While Kaine is from the key battleground of Virginia, he isn’t as popular in the GOP-leaning southwest part of the state as Mark Warner is.
VIDEO: President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have agreed to pursue a "general time horizon" for withdrawal from Iraq, even as Maliki announces support for Barack Obama's proposal. NBC's Patty Culhane reports. ***
Bush’s shifts : Because of the presidential contest -- which is sucking the air out of most other news -- we haven’t paid much attention as we should to all the significant policy shifts coming from Bush Administration. They’re stunning, in fact. The “time horizon” for troop withdrawal from Iraq. Sending envoys to both Iran and North Korea. Just asking: Would the Republican Party and McCain be in a better position heading into this election had Bush announced these changes two years ago, when he still captured the public’s attention?
*** On the trail : McCain is in Colorado, speaking to the GI Forum Convention in Denver and then heading to Aspen to meet with the Dalai Lama. (The Lama is already a big hitter, no telling what the thin air of Colorado will do for the Lama's driving abilities.) Obama, meanwhile, flies from Berlin to Paris -- where he chats with President Nicolas Sarkozy -- before heading to London.Click here to sign up for First Read emails .
The Washington Post : “Anxious to counter the blanket media coverage that has followed Sen. Barack Obama on his overseas journey, Sen. John McCain is weighing whether to announce his running mate in the coming weeks before the spotlight shifts to China and the opening of the Olympic Games next month. "He's in a position to make [the decision] on short notice if he wanted to," said Charles R. Black Jr., one of McCain's top political advisers.”
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at today's political headlines including the focus on who John McCain and Barack Obama will pick as their running mates. More: "Many Republicans say the traditional time frame for an announcement -- the days leading up to the GOP convention -- is not practical this year, because the Democratic convention ends so soon before the Republican gathering. It's unlikely, they said, that McCain would announce his pick the day after Obama gives his convention speech. And several McCain aides said they oppose the idea of making a vice presidential announcement during the Olympics. ‘It's not that it wouldn't get covered. But if you are looking for a calm sea and no waves . . . you don't do it during the Olympics,’ said one senior Republican adviser.”
"We don't know when some breakthrough performance will happen," the adviser said. "All sorts of news can come. . . . What if there's some sort of human rights protest?"
The Wall Street Journal looks at Bobby Jindal's conversion to Catholicism.
More compiled by NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli…Ken Khachigian thinks the veepstakes needs to be “put in perspective.” “In a presidential campaign, there are only a handful of occasions when a running mate has news value: the day of the announcement and the few days following; the nominee's convention speech debut; the joint kickoff rally; and the televised debate with the counterpart running mate.” LA Times has a long pros/cons list.
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McCain meets with the Dalai Lama today in Colorado.
And with that visit, here’s a classic from Caddyshack (hat tip to NBC’s Bill Hatfield):
Check out this admission in Charles Krauthammer's lead : "In a stunning upset, Barack Obama this week won the Iraq primary."
The New York Times on McCain’s tough week: "Campaign advisers to Mr. McCain say that the mood is not good at headquarters in Arlington, Va., and that the week got off to a bad start when Mr. McCain was photographed in a golf cart with the 84-year-old former President George Bush in the resort town of Kennebunkport, Me. It was the same day that pictures of Mr. Obama in sleek sunglasses alongside Gen. David H. Petraeus in a helicopter in Iraq were beamed all over the world.”
VIDEO: More of Sen. John McCain's interview with NBC's Kelly O'Donnell. “But Mark Salter, one of Mr. McCain’s closest advisers, said Thursday over his own bratwurst lunch that he, for one, was not alarmed, and that Mr. McCain had spent the week in battleground states meeting with people who actually vote in American elections. ‘I think he’s getting his message out — go look at some of the local press and the local TV packages,’ Mr. Salter said. “It’s John McCain on energy and the economy.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post: “Addressing a huge throng in the middle of this once-divided city, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday implored Americans and Europeans to renew the partnership that once defeated communism to address 21st-century threats that he said put the security of all nations at risk.”
The Boston Globe : "The Illinois Democrat spoke before an early-evening crowd that police estimated at more than 200,000, larger than any he has mustered in the United States. The overseas gathering in the midst of a presidential campaign was seemingly without precedent in American history."
VIDEO: Newsweek's Richard Wolffe, who was in Berlin for Barack Obama's speech, discusses how well it was received in Germany and how the tone will likely be perceived at home. The
New York Times : “The German police estimated that more than 200,000 people came to hear him speak from the base of the Victory Column in the Tiergarten, a sprawling park in the center of the city. Berliners waved American flags — provided by the campaign — throughout the address, offering precisely the visual message that Mr. Obama’s aides wanted to beam back home: a candidate who could restore the world’s faith in strong American leadership and idealism.”
The
New York Times also has this analysis: "Obama, Vague on Issues, Pleases Crowd in Europe."
Der Spiegel : "[A]n estimated 200,000-strong crowd finally got to see the candidate in the flesh. And it seemed as if the prominent guest wanted to make amends for the day's game of hide and seek. It was as if four different Obamas made an appearance at Berlin's Victory Column -- in the space of less than 30 minutes...CONTINUED >>
The LA Times uses the new Quinnipiac polls showing McCain closing in on Obama in some key states, and writes a glass-is-half-empty story -- which includes some Clinton criticism. "Obama also faces discontent from some of Hillary Rodham Clinton's most ardent supporters, who are put off by what they describe as a campaign marked by hubris and a style dedicated to televised extravaganzas. Susie Tompkins Buell, a major Clinton fundraiser, said: "The Clinton supporters that I know are bothered by these rock-star events. These spectacles are more about the candidate than they are about the party and the issues that we care about."
Regarding those Quinnipiac polls, don’t miss this : "Clay Richards, the assistant director of the Connecticut university's polling institute, said the Obama slide [in Minnesota] probably isn't as dramatic as the raw numbers reflect. Still, Richards said McCain is clearly stronger in the state than he was in June."
A Pew poll of Hispanics finds that Obama leads 66%-23%.
VIDEO: The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that Barack Obama has not yet received any boost in ratings since his trip overseas. A Race for the White House panel discusses. In his most recent National Journal column, Charlie Cook writes, “Obama is more than midway through his tour of the Middle East and Europe, a trip designed to generate images of the freshman Democratic senator standing next to foreign leaders, projecting a presidential image. That’s important. Swing voters need to be able to visualize him as president and to see him dealing as an equal with the world leaders whose ranks he seeks to join. So far, Obama has made no major missteps during this important journey.”
CONTINUED >>
Compiled by NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
Bill Richardson
could miss the DNC if a special session of the legislature runs late. “I'll stay here. This is my priority,” Richardson said at a news conference Thursday.
Makeup mogul Bobbi Brown -- and believe it or not, New Jersey delegate -- says New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine
has asked Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi to come to the convention, but no word on whether they’ve accepted. Brown will also be available for touch ups. Seriously.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
have taken their names off a housing industry reception at the conventions. A spokeswoman said the agencies will continue their financial commitment to the events.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
ON THE RECORD, IRAQ EDITION: Back in the US, Chuck Hagel
had tough words for McCain, though he didn’t mention him by name. "Quit talking about, 'Did the surge work or not work,' or, 'Did you vote for this or support this,'" he said. "Get out of that. We're done with that. How are we going to project forward?" On the surge, he said of course there would be a result when you “flood the zone.”
In an interview with the AP , Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) called the talks with diplomats and military commanders candid and substantive.
VIDEO: With the party conventions approaching, Barack Obama and John McCain must decide on running mates. Political analyst Rachel Maddow weighs in on their potential choices. ON THE RECORD: Tom Ridge on MSNBC's Hardball: “It’s very flattering, because of my longtime relationship with my friend John McCain... I don’t know if I’m being vetted. Certainly, I have not had a conversation with my friend about it. So we’ll just see what transpires over the next couple weeks.” He said he hasn’t talked to McCain about the process at all.
At home in Minnesota, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) dodged many VP questions . “I have just stopped engaging in the speculation because I think it is just largely speculation and it just fuels more speculation... I have just stopped engaging in the discussion."
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From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
BERLIN, Germany -- In the most anticipated public event of his five-country swing through Europe and the Middle East,
Obama today addressed a crowd of more than 200,000 people at Tiergarten Park here, calling upon Americans and Europeans to work together to fight terrorism, poverty, genocide, climate change and to work toward a world without nuclear weapons.
He also touched on the need for peace in the Middle East, a strong European Union, and a free and fair trade system.
VIDEO: Speaking before an enormous crowd in Berlin, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama warned against 'walls' between 'allies,...races and trives, natives and immigrants, Christian and Muslim and Jew.' The presumptive Democratic nominee -- who was greeted with several chants of “Yes we Can” and was frequently interrupted by cheers and applause -- returned to his common campaign themes of unity, hope, and the need to seize the moment. He also repeated a favorite phrase, “This is our moment,” several times throughout his roughly half-hour speech, which acknowledged about the need to repair the relationship between America and its allies.
“In Europe, the view that America is part of what has gone wrong in our world -- rather than a force to help make it right -- has become all too common,” he told a crowd that stretched about a mile from his stage in front of the Victory Column to the Brandenburg Gate. “In America, there are voices that deride and deny the importance of Europe’s role in our security and our future. Both views miss the truth.”
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From NBC’s Alex Wall McCain’s policy advisors painted Obama as “Dr. No” on energy policy in a conference call held by the campaign this morning. Senior Policy Advisers Doug Holtz-Eakin and Nancy Pfotenhauer stressed the contrast between McCain and Obama’s positions on offshore drilling and the expansion of nuclear energy.
VIDEO: John McCain seized a golden opportunity to talk energy and the economy, launching a new ad attacking Barack Obama on rising gas prices. A Race for the White House panel discusses.
“If you talk to any member of the environmental community, everything has to be on the table…coal, oil, nuclear and alternative [energy sources],” Holtz-Eakin said. “John McCain has said to me on numerous occasions, this is the right thing for the economy, the right thing for national security.” He later added, “Obama has said, ‘No,’ to offshore drilling, ‘No,’ to coal, ‘No’ to [nuclear power]. His policy will ensure that we will have no new energy supplies.”On Florida and offshore drilling: While discussing McCain’s support of offshore drilling, Holtz-Eakin argued that, “states that traditionally don’t support drilling…like Florida are [now] supporting drilling.” Holtz-Eakin went on to suggest that this change in public opinion shows increasing support for McCain’s energy policies.
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain questions whether Obama should have given a speech in Berlin before becoming president.
"I would rather speak at a rally or a political gathering any place outside of the country after I am president of the United States," McCain told O'Donnell. "But that's a judgment that Sen. Obama and the American people will make."
However, on June 20, McCain himself gave a speech in Canada -- to the Economic Club of Canada -- in which he applauded NAFTA's successes. An implicit message behind that speech was that Obama had been critical of the trade accord. Also, McCain's trip to Canada was paid for by the campaign.
VIDEO: At a town hall in Pennsylvania, Republican presidential candidate John McCain says Obama's failure to understand the success of the surge in Iraq is a huge problem. Other excerpts of O'Donnell's interview with McCain:
O'Donnell: Do you believe Obama really would be willing to lose the war in Iraq?
McCain: I think it’s very clear that he took the position that would enhance and maybe the reason why he won the nomination of his party. He doesn’t understand that the consequences of failure in Iraq would have disastrous consequences for America's national security. And he still doesn’t acknowledge that the surge succeeded, which is remarkable any rational observer who saw the conditions two years ago and sees them now.
O'Donnell: What is your best estimate in time for a significant drawdown [from Iraq]?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Der Spiegel writes, "SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that Obama has cancelled a planned short visit to the Rammstein and Landstuhl US military bases in the southwest German state of Rhineland-Palatinate. The visits were planned for Friday. 'Barack Obama will not be coming to us,' a spokesperson for the US military hospital in Landstuhl announced. 'I don't know why.' Shortly before the same spokeswoman had announced a planned visit by Obama.
The RNC has been passing along the story as well.
The Obama campaign confirms to First Read they won't be visiting and here's its official response:
VIDEO: Following a brief stop in Afghanistan, presidential hopeful Barack Obama travels to Iraq to meet with U.S. commanders and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Baghdad. "During his trip as part of the CODEL to Afghanistan and Iraq, Senator Obama visited the combat support hospital in the Green Zone in Baghdad and had a number of other visits with the troops," Obama strategist Robert Gibbs said in a statement. "For the second part of his trip, the senator wanted to visit the men and women at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center to express his gratitude for their service and sacrifice. The senator decided out of respect for these servicemen and women that it would be inappropriate to make a stop to visit troops at a U.S. military facility as part of a trip funded by the campaign."
Also part of that live ticker, Obama gets some headlines it probably wants out of the speech -- "Obama Says He Loves America," "Obama Calls on the World to Support Iraq," "Obama Calls on Europeans and Americans to Fight Terror Together."
*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube
One military official who was working on the Obama visit said because political candidates are prohibited from using military installations as campaign backdrops, Obama's representatives were told, "he could only bring two or three of his Senate staff member, no campaign officials or workers." In addition,
The official said "We didn't know why" the request to visit the wounded troops was withdrawn. "He (Obama) was more than welcome. We were all ready for him."
From NBC's Bethany Thomas Sen. McCain, tomorrow, will meet with the Dalai Lama in Aspen, Colo.
NBC Senior Investigative Producer Jim Popkin looks at "Obama and the case of the missing 'thesis'" in an item on NBC blog Deep Background .
Conservative provocateurs have been hunting for it. Investigative journalists have been on the prowl, too. Even a former professor has been searching through old boxes for his copy of it. But today Barack Obama made it official: He doesn’t have and can’t release any copies of the thesis-length paper he wrote 25 years ago while a senior at Columbia University.
“We do not have a copy of the course paper you requested and neither does Columbia University,” Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt told NBC News.
The hunt for Obama’s senior “thesis” began with a throwaway line in a newspaper article last October. The New York Times story, on Obama’s early New York years, mentioned in passing that the presidential contender had majored in political science at Columbia and had spent his time “writing his thesis on Soviet nuclear disarmament.”
Journalists began hounding Columbia University for copies of the musty document. Conservative bloggers began wondering if the young Obama had written a no-nukes screed that he might come to regret. And David Bossie, the former congressional investigator and “right-wing hit man,” as one newspaper described him, took out classified newspaper ads in Columbia University’s newspaper and the Chicago Tribune in March searching for the term paper.
So what does the missing paper say, and could it be politically damaging to Obama? The Obama campaign won’t offer any guidance since it says it doesn’t have a copy. Spokesman Ben LaBolt wouldn’t even say whether Sen. Obama threw out his copy or lost it.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Looks like a change of plans, Rob Portman will join McCain at his event in Ohio tonight.
See First Thoughts for some little known facts and the pros and cons of Portman as VP.
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama from Berlin, which will air later tonight on NBC Nightly News:
VIDEO: Watch portions of NBC's Brian Williams as he interviews Sen. Barack Obama in Germany. Obama talks about being pegged as the "riskier" choice for president and the need for international cooperation against terrorism. Williams: I have to begin by getting your reaction to a piece in this morning's International Herald Tribune. It's by Elizabeth Bumiller. And it reads, "Senator
John McCain and his campaign have sharply stepped up criticism of Senator Barack Obama as a craven and naïve traveler to the Middle East, who, as McCain put it at a raucous town hall style meeting, quote, 'would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.'" That's -- that's tough language.
Obama: Yeah, I-- I was disappointed by that language. You know, John McCain and I disagree on policy. You know, we disagreed on going into the war in Iraq. We disagreed, until recently, about the need to get more troops into Afghanistan. But I've never questioned-- that he wants to make America safer. And for him to suggest that I don't-- for him to suggest that somehow -- I'm less concerned about the safety of my wife and daughter-- than he is I think -- was -- was unfortunate.
Williams: Forty-five minutes in Ramallah. No electoral votes in Berlin. Is the trip worth it?
Obama: It is because I have firmly believed -- since the beginning of this campaign and -- for the last several years that we can't solve the problems we face in the United States alone. We can't solve the problems of terrorism without support from the international community. We can -- go after al-Qaeda as we have and we must. We can hunt them down. But we are gonna be more effective if we've got an international coalition. If we wanna pressure Iran -- something that has to be at the highest priority to back down from nuclear weapons -- then we've gotta impose very tough sanctions.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com poll of the battleground states Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin:
McCain 46% - Obama 44%
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the importance of Barack Obama's speech in Berlin and the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which has Obama leading John McCain by six points. The methodology: From July 14 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
-- 1,425 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
-- 1,684 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent;
-- 1,261 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
-- 1,094 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
In June's poll, Obama lead in all four states
From NBC's Mike Viqueira Barack Obama will be on the Hill next Tuesday evening to address House Democrats in a closed -door session, says a top congressional Dem source.
Recall that Obama received a hero's welcome from fellow Democrats when he made a surprise visit to the House chamber late in the primary season. Since then, there have been mutterings here and there about how he isn't communicating sufficiently with members of the caucus -- all of whom will be down ticket from the presumptive nominee.
Recently, Obama has brought in Phil Schiliro -- a veteran Dem staffer -- to work as a liaison.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Obama’s election to win : How important has this overseas trip been for Obama? Look no further than our latest NBC/WSJ poll, which has Obama leading McCain by six points (47%-41%), unchanged from last month. While the survey finds that the political winds are at the Dem candidate’s back -- just 13% believe the country’s on the right track, an all-time low in the poll; this is the 25th-straight NBC/WSJ survey in which the GOP has a net-negative rating; and Bush’s approval rating is only at 30% -- there are plenty of signs that Obama hasn’t yet closed the deal; if anything, he's simply grabbing on to the reverse Bush coattails at the moment. A majority (55%) think he would be the riskier choice for president, less than half of respondents say he doesn’t share their values and background, and McCain clobbers him on experience and commander-in-chief questions. This election, in fact, has become a referendum on Obama: 51% say they are focusing more on what kind of president Obama would be, versus just 27% who say they are focusing more on McCain. While a common refrain is that this election is shaping up as Obama’s election to lose, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) puts it another way “This remains Barack Obama’s election to win,” he says. “In the end, the election is about reassuring voters and removing doubts.”
VIDEO: The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that Barack Obama has not yet received any boost in ratings since his trip overseas. A Race for the White House panel discusses. ***
Re-running Hillary’s campaign isn’t the answer : But while Obama is working on some his shortcomings as he travels overseas, ask yourself this: Has McCain been working on his, especially on a week when he’s had the country to himself? A whopping 77% in the poll believe that McCain would follow Bush’s policies very closely or somewhat closely. Just 14% of McCain’s own voters are excited about his candidacy (compared with 44% of Obama voters who say that about the Illinois Democrat). And, by a 55%-40% margin, voters prefer a presidential candidate who will bring greater changes -- even if he’s less experienced and tested -- to an experienced candidate who will bring fewer changes. “McCain can’t make this election about experience,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). “Re-running Hillary’s campaign isn’t going to be enough.” McCain tried to do something different by traveling to a Gulf Coast oil rig to promote his policies on offshore drilling, but those plans got scrapped by Hurricane Dolly. If it wasn't for bad luck these days, McCain would have no luck at all. That said, will observers look back on this summer as a wasted opportunity for McCain to start creating distance with Bush? Appearing with Bush's father this week, after all, wasn't exactly the best way to create that distance.
*** It’s the economy, dumba$$ : No longer does the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” suffice. We need more of an expletive to drive home the point how central the economy is to this presidential election. In the poll, the economy and energy/gas prices are the two biggest voter concerns; Iraq is third. Voters are screaming for the candidates to focus on the economy, which is what makes the European portion of Obama's trip potentially more troublesome. It’s not clear that either Obama or McCain owns this issue right now. Just 28% have confidence that Obama would be able to get the economy back on track, while only 17% say that of McCain. (But Democrats do enjoy a comfortable lead when it comes to which party better handles the economy and energy.) Also according to the poll, voters -- overwhelmingly -- want McCain to pick a running mate who’s an expert on the economy. They want Obama to pick an expert in military or foreign affairs, but a close second is an economic expert. Who out there fits those bills for McCain and Obama? Will Michael Bloomberg get second looks from both candidates? Romney and Portman rise to the top of McCain's list? Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina too? What about Mark Warner on the Dem side? Will Robert Rubin's name suddenly surface?
*** Bigger than David Hasselhoff
*** Touché: The RNC, meanwhile, is up with radio ads hitting Obama for his lack of support for troop funding last year. Where are the ads running? They’re in all three US cities named Berlin in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, as well as all three US cities named Paris in Maine, Michigan, and Missouri. But we ask: Why no love for Paris, VA? Population 49!
*** Going for the gold : The AP writes, "Barack Obama is going for the gold. He has decided to buy $5 million in national advertising on NBC during the broadcast of the Olympic games. The ads will appear on network and cable channels. The ad purchase was first reported yesterday on the website of Advertising Age, a magazine that covers the industry." Blog fodder : Also, don’t miss this little shot Obama took at Fox News when talking at his avail about the information/news the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan are getting. “Sure, they are well informed, especially because you know [Major] Garrett’s on their home channel. How is it that Fox News has such an impact with Armed Forces television?” Garrett, also on the plane, answered: “Choice.” Then Obama replied: “Is that the commander-in-chief’s choice?” Over to you, Mr. O'Reilly!
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray takes a look at McCain's potential V.P. short list and addresses speculation that the Republican may soon announce his pick. ***
Meet Rob Portman : With McCain in Ohio, we take a look at Rob Portman (sorry, Bobby Jindal -- we were going to profile you before McCain canceled his appearance in Louisiana)… His family's ancestors were Quaker abolitionists who were active in the Underground Railroad… That you can put more money in your 401(k) and IRA is, in part, due to Portman… During 2000 and 2004 VP debate practice for Cheney, he played the roles of Lieberman and Edwards… On the one hand, Portman brings experience on the economy as OMB director and a geographic advantage being from Ohio. On the other, his close ties to Bush (pictures hung in his office of him running with Bush Sr. and fishing with Cheney in Snake River, WY.) and his work as US Trade Rep. are problems, particularly in his home state where he never ran for statewide office. He represented Cincinnati in Congress.
*** On the trail : McCain is in the battleground of Ohio, where he raises money and then attends a town hall in the evening with Lance Armstrong; the two hold a media avail after that. Obama, as mentioned above, is in Germany. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
McCain isn't backing down from his claim the surge started when he said it did, countering Dem attacks. "McCain said Army Col. Sean MacFarland started carrying out elements of a new counterinsurgency strategy as early as December 2006. At issue are McCain's comments in a Tuesday interview with CBS. The Arizona senator disputed Democrat Barack Obama's contention that a Sunni revolt against al-Qaida combined with the dispatch of thousands more U.S. combat troops to Iraq to produce the improved security situation there. McCain called that a ‘false depiction.’”
VIDEO: John McCain tried to explain his statements about the surge in Iraq beginning before the Sunni Awakening by insisting that the surge was actually a broader counter-insurgency strategy of which the surge in U.S. troop numbers was a part. The Nation's Chris Hayes outlines the inaccuracies of what McCain said and what actually happened. “Democrats jumped on his comments. They said McCain's remarks showed he was out of touch, because the rebellion of U.S.-backed Sunni sheiks against al-Qaida terrorists in Iraq's Anbar province was under way well before Bush announced in January 2007 his decision to send 30,000 additional U.S. troops to Iraq. McCain asserted he knew that and didn't commit a gaffe. ‘A surge is really a counterinsurgency made up of a number of components. ... I'm not sure people understand that “surge” is part of a counterinsurgency.’”
The
New York Times fact-checks the back-and-forth. “Democrats noted that the sheik who helped form the Awakening, Abdul Sattar Buzaigh al-Rishawi, was assassinated in September 2007, after the troop escalation began. The National Security Network, a liberal foreign policy group, called Mr. McCain’s explanation of the surge’s history ‘completely wrong.’”
“But several foreign policy analysts said that if Mr. McCain got the chronology wrong, his broader point — that the troop escalation was crucial for the Awakening movement to succeed and spread — was right. ‘I would say McCain is three-quarters right in this debate,’ said Michael E. O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.”
Using the fact that McCain's oil rig event had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Dolly, the Washington Post takes a look at the fact that if it wasn't for bad luck, McCain wouldn't have any luck at all. “It seemed like a great way to counter Obamamania. Sen. John McCain would board a helicopter in New Orleans today, skim quickly over the Gulf of Mexico and land on an oil rig -- a made-for-TV moment to highlight his call for offshore drilling, an issue that Republicans believe will be a big winner in November.”
Then came Hurricane Dolly, a Category 2 storm that made a helicopter ride impossible. And then, improbably, a 600-foot oil tanker collided with a barge on the Mississippi River, creating a 12-mile oil slick and causing diesel fumes to waft over the city's French Quarter. The trip was off. In this campaign, it seems, McCain just can't catch a break.”
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses whether John McCain is starting to lose his cool when attacking Barack Obama. The
Boston Globe front pages McCain's "deficit" with young voters. "McCain's campaign, lagging far behind Obama among young voters, is trying to catch up. It will soon roll out new MySpace-style social networking features on its website -- which at the moment has special sections for women, veterans, and even lawyers, but not young people. It is also increasing its youth grass-roots organizing across the country and honing a new message aimed at young voters - 'service to a cause greater than your own self-interest' -- designed to dovetail with the 71-year-old's biography. Still, McCain is late to the game."
CONTINUED >>
Der Spiegel has blow-out Obama coverage: "Debate over Germany Trip Leaves Team Obama Frustrated" Obama's Star Status Frustrating McCain Berlin Reopens World Cup 'Fan Mile' for Obama American Idol in Germany
VIDEO: Barack Obama arrives in Berlin to begin the European leg of his foreign tour. He's set to speak about his vision on the ties between the U.S. and Europe. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. The State Department
has labeled today's Berlin speech by Obama as a "partisan political event" -- meaning US embassy personnel are being told not to attend. "Government employees serving in the United States are permitted to attend such events under the Hatch Act, which bars other partisan activity, such as contributing money or working in behalf of a candidate.” But: “‘We always maintain that no U.S. government Foreign Service person overseas should be seen to be advocating one side or the other,’ State Department Undersecretary for Management Patrick Kennedy said, adding that ‘it has nothing to do with who’ the candidate is. ‘When a German sees you there, they're not going to think, “Oh, he or she is on their off time.” It's “Oh, they are a Democrat, a Republican, an independent,” God knows what,’ Kennedy said in an interview."
The RNC is up with radio ads hitting Obama for his lack of support for troop funding last year. The ads are running in all three US cities named Berlin in PA, WI, and NH, as well as all three US cities named Paris in ME, MI, and MO. Paris, VA ? Perhaps with a town size of just 49 people, they don't have a radio market to buy?
CONTINUED >>
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann…
The Hill offers a numbers piece on Obama's organizational advantage in battleground states, citing the count of field offices in states that will likely be in play in November. For example: "In states where both campaigns have announced field offices that they've opened or plan to open, Obama has a definite advantage. In Ohio, Obama will have 18 offices open by the end of this week, while Sen. McCain (R-Ariz.) has eight. In Virginia, Obama has opened 20 while McCain has opened six."
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe
took his battleground PowerPoint to Capitol Hill yesterday , asking House Democrats to join in the effort to push swing states into the (D) column. According to attendees, Plouffe "emphasized the need for lawmakers, particularly from safe districts in safe Democratic states, to join the effort to get out the vote in areas that are up for grabs."
From the
Washington Post : Plouffe spent the time "huddling with House Democrats behind closed doors for nearly an hour and assuring them that Obama would be helping their election bids -- and that they would be asked to help his."
OHIO : It's a Republican full-court-press in the Buckeye State . McCain's there today, Bush is there next week, and RNC Chair Mike Duncan will be in Ohio tomorrow to rally state GOP leaders to McCain's cause.
Compiled by NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and Carrie DannREPUBLICANS : Asked by Sean Hannity if he had decided on a VP pick, John McCain said: “No.” He said he’s looking for someone “who shares your priorities. Your principles, your values and I’ve got to also say priorities. One of the toughest decisions the president makes is setting priorities. And so, that has to be those obviously important characteristics. And one of them of course is, someone who can take your place immediately.” no longer denying contacts with the McCain camp. Eric Fehrnstrom said he had no comment on the issue, "and that includes not revisiting prior statements on the subject." But a Boston Herald op-ed says that if the economy is Romney’s selling point, that’s not saying much, noting job losses and a mixed report card from the Club for Growth. tells the hometown Erie newspaper : “Don't know if I've been vetted, and I know for certain I've had no conversations with my friend John. And since we've been friends for 25 years, I'd prefer, if there's to be a discussion, it be a private one.”
CONTINUED >>
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger
DEMOCRATS : An announcement is expected today
on how tickets will be distributed for the Thursday night Invesco Field speech.
The
ongoing saga of a Wisconsin delegate who may be stripped of her right to vote at the convention because she is publicly supporting John McCain continues. Debra Bartoshevich, a Hillary Clinton supporter, had an official complaint filed with the party’s Credentials Committee against her when she said she would support McCain over Obama.
John Edwards said he expects his anti-poverty initiative to
play a prominent role at the convention . "I'm very hopeful and have good reason to believe that this issue will be heard loudly and clearly" at the convention, Edwards said.
REPUBLICANS : White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Bush will leave St. Paul Monday night after his speech, without spending the night. “After the president speaks,” she wrote in an e-mail to the
New York Times , “it’s McCain’s spotlight and we intend to let it shine fully on him.” Bush’s speech will come several hours
after a massive march is planned against the war , ending at the Xcel Energy Center, where the convention will be held. Could the presidential address help boost their numbers?
Convention press secretary Joanna Burgos told NBC/National Journal though that the list of speakers has not been finalized and the organizers would not comment until all the speakers had been determined.
As if the GOP needed more problems in their attempts to defend the Virginia Senate seat being vacated by John Warner… Their nominee, one-time presidential candidate Jim Gilmore,
is accused of hiding his ties to a government contractor on his senate financial disclosure form . If you are keeping score at home, this probably means Mark Warner goes from, say a 10-point favorite to 15 points? 20?
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
THE SHORT LIST. Per Adam Aigner-Treworgy,
McCain was asked his feelings on Gov. Tim
Pawlenty (R-MN). “He’s a great, fine person. Reelected in one of the toughest reelection years in the history of the Republican Party. He comes from a -- his father I am pretty sure -- drove a truck. He has pretty successfully been able to work across the aisle in Minnesota with the Democrats. And I think he is, he, Bobby
Jindal and a number of governors, I think are the future of the Republican party. The next generation of leadership.”
Earlier today, McCain mentioned his “
beloved friend ” Tom
Ridge at a Pennsylvania fundraiser today, adding: “I think he’s one of the ideal Americans that I have ever known.”
VIDEO: Former New York City mayor and one-time presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani joins Hardball's Chris Matthews to talk about John McCain's V.P. search and Barack Obama's overseas trip. Jeff Sadosky, a McCain aide, said
predictions of rough weather Wednesday night, including strong thunderstorms, led the campaign to cancel the McCain trip to New Orleans. McCain’s camp says they’ll reschedule the meeting with Jindal.
Marc Ambinder offers some details on McCain’s veep preparations, with a full time staff dedicated to the eventual pick. He also downplays McCain’s mention of Pawlenty in a meeting with NH supporters, and reports that
Romney supporters are suggesting he make his pick sooner rather than later.
Meanwhile,
Bob Novak updates his take on VP: “The identity of McCain's running mate, whenever he is named, still is unknown. But former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney now leads all speculation. He is getting a boost from private polls that show his presence on the ticket puts McCain ahead in Michigan -- changing that state from Blue to Red.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Many are wondering just how many people will show up at Obama's Berlin speech tomorrow.
First Read obtained postcards created by the Obama campaign being handed out in Germany advertising the event.
From NBC's Michael McDonel
The press conference's purpose was to outline a national battle plan against cancer.
When asked which presidential candidate he would rather have as his workout buddy, Armstrong said there was an obvious choice, but that he tries to stay apolitical when it comes to the issue of cancer prevention and surviviorship and that he is confident both candidates would strongly support the cause.
Upon further consideration Armstrong replied, "Neither of them could hang."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
As both campaigns zero in on their running mate selections, the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a sizeable number of voters would like to see both nominees shore up their ticket with someone with economic credentials.
But for
Obama , the No. 1 quality sought in a running mate is someone with diplomatic or military credentials. Fifty percent of respondents said they’d like to see the Illinois senator pick someone who is an expert in the military or foreign affairs, compared to only 25 percent who thought
McCain should do so.
VIDEO: A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Barack Obama has a 6-point lead over John McCain in the race for the White House. NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd weighs in on the poll results. Sixty percent of the registered voters surveyed wanted to see McCain pick a running mate who’s an expert on the economy, with another 22 percent looking for someone who has experience in the business world. Forty-two percent of those surveyed want Obama to pick a fiscal expert.
Voters were allowed to choose more than one quality from a list. A smaller number of voters on each side thought it was important to pick someone who was conservative or liberal on social issues, with 13 and 11 percent, respectively.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain spent most of his prepared remarks discussing the two issues he has made the center of his week: (even at fundraisers) energy and Iraq. On Iraq he reiterated some of his attacks on Obama that have become mainstays of this week, including another pointed use of the ‘he’d rather win an election than win a war’ line and answered a couple questions on how the Iraqi police are still not well-trained enough to secure their own country.
He also hit Obama on his refusal to accept any of McCain’s energy policies -- "No We Won’t" instead of "Yes We Can."
Also, McCain is no longer going to New Orleans to meet with Bobby Jindal , but traveling to Columbus, Ohio, instead.
McCain also complimented his former House colleague and “beloved friend” Tom Ridge , who did not appear to be present: “A Vietnam veteran, a person, one of the few graduates of Harvard who was drafted and went and served in the Vietnam War, first head of -- you know all about Tom Ridge, uh, I think he’s one of the ideal Americans that I have ever known. I have to tell you his most unfavorite joke, which I tell all the time about the two inmates in the chow line at the state prison….”
Some excerpts from McCain's town hall:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
SDEROT, Israel --
Obama used a press conference in a town seen as a symbol of Israel's security challenges to highlight the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran and to reaffirm his strong support for Israel and his commitment to the peace process.
Obama took questions for about 20 minutes, appearing alongside Israeli Defense Minister Ehud
Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi
Livni . Livni spoke briefly before the senator took to the podium.
VIDEO: In Israel, Democratic presidential candidate Barack obama says he would offer "big sticks and big carrots" to Iran in an effort to halt that country's nuclear program. Obama largely reiterated views he has expressed before, such as the importance of having a U.S. government that was deeply engaged in the peace process but that did not dictate to either party what their agreement should look like and the need for Hamas to recognize Israel's right to exist.
While there was little news in the presser, it was remarkable in terms of the strong language Obama used repeatedly to demonstrate the depth of his support for Israel, saying at one point that he had an "unshakeable commitment to Israel's security." His message appeared to be directed at American Jewish voters, an important voting bloc and one that has been wary of Obama's commitment to Israel.
On Iran, Obama said he would take no options off the table in dealing with the potential Iranian threat.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Here's one result from the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that will be released tonight at 6:30 pm ET on Nightly News and MSNBC.com... With the news that Iraq's prime minister wants the US to set a timetable for withdrawal, 60% of registered voters believe it's a good idea for the US to set such a timetable, while 30% say it's a bad idea.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama makes an appeal to the Hispanic community drawing on his biography in his latest Spanish-language radio ad, which will run in Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada beginning today.
All four are battlegrounds with Hispanic voters. Florida, however, has a higher concentration of typically more conservative Cuban voters.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Obama’s tricky day : So far, so good for Obama. His campaign got the pictures it wanted from Afghanistan and Iraq. The candidate also seemed to successfully navigate yesterday’s press conference when every media outlet and GOP operative monitored every word he said. There are two big hurdles left: 1) the Berlin speech and 2) today’s events in Israel, which might be the trickiest part of Obama’s trip. Indeed, there will be a lot of attention on Obama’s stance on Jerusalem. When Obama called for Jerusalem to be “undivided” at the AIPAC conference in DC he got large applause from the pro-Israeli audience. But Obama was criticized from the Palestinian community and he then walked back from the comment, later telling Fareed Zakaria on CNN it was "bad phrasing." "You know, the truth is that this was an example where we had some poor phrasing in the speech, and we immediately tried to correct the interpretation that was given," Obama said. It is a fine line Obama walks with skeptical Israelis and -- more important politically -- Jewish voters in the US.
VIDEO: Time Magazine's Mark Halperin explains why Barack Obama's trip abroad can only help his campaign and why John McCain has a right to be frustrated. ***
A busy man : Of course, Obama's day in Israel is mostly over... Already today, Obama has met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak and then with opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. After that, he visited the Yad Vashem, the Holocaust memorial and chatted with President Shimon Peres. He ventured to Ramallah to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. And he spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Still on the agenda: a trip to Sderot, a border town that has come under repeated rocket attacks from Hamas. And finally, he speaks with embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
***
Problematic body language : Sometimes body language can tell you a lot. And the body language coming from the McCain campaign -- as Obama continues his overseas trip -- doesn’t look too pretty right now. Let us count the ways: It has aired its first two negative TV ads of general election, one of which (on energy) was panned by virtually every media outlet for being factually incorrect. It later sent the press on what appears to be a wild goose VP chase, when it leaked to Bob Novak that a veep decision could be coming this week (and now even Novak admits that he might have been used).
Next came the McCain Web video blasting the media’s attention on Obama, as well as those luggage tags calling the reporters who have followed McCain for much of this election the “JV Squad” while others are covering Obama overseas; the other side of the luggage tag was in French with a beret-wearing guy pouring wine. (Side thought: Why does McCain think belittling his own press corps is a good idea? But we digress…)
Click for a larger photo of luggage tags
And then yesterday came McCain’s line that “Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign” -- language that spurred veteran journalist Joe Klein to wonder whether McCain “has the right temperament for the presidency.” McCain told CBS’s Katie Couric last night, “I relish [being] the underdog.” Did the McCain campaign push the candidate into this mode because they are obsessing SO MUCH over winning and losing daily news cycles? What happened to the happy warrior?
*** Poll alert : Where does the McCain-Obama race stand? Has Obama received a bump from his overseas trip? Do most Americans support a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq? Is Obama a riskier choice than McCain is safe? And how many think the country is on the wrong track? Some answers to these questions will be revealed when the latest NBC/WSJ poll -- the first national survey to come out after Obama departed on his international trip -- is released on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com at 6:30 pm ET.
*** Tar Heel dreaming? Does Obama really have a chance in North Carolina? GOP voices in today’s Raleigh News & Observer don’t think so. “There remains some skepticism among Republicans about whether the Obama effort is for real or just a feint. Some of them think Obama is likely to refocus his efforts on more traditional swing states closer to the election. ‘We are anticipating that it could be a race in North Carolina,’ said Ferrell Blount, a former state GOP chairman from Pitt County who is advising the McCain campaign. ‘But we are not totally convinced it will be at this point. But we want to be prepared to spend some money in North Carolina, and we are trying to make some preparations.’”
VIDEO: Quizzing people on whether or not they are being vetted never gets old and neither does talk of Obama's visit to the Middle East. Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La., talks with Mika Brzezinski about whether he might be the vice presidential nominee. ***
McCain’s short list? We now have what appears to be the McCain VP short list: Romney, Pawlenty, and Jindal. Those seem to be the three after reading today’s news clips (check out our Veepstakes section). One person whose name isn’t on that list, but probably should be? See right below…
*** Meet Tom Ridge : With McCain in Pennsylvania today, we take a look at former PA Gov -- and Homeland Security secretary -- Tom Ridge, with whom McCain is close friends. (And remember, how McCain gets along with someone is a factor in the VP decision.)… Ridge, a Harvard grad, won a bronze star in Vietnam. In 1982, "he was the first enlisted Vietnam combat veteran elected to the U.S. House...." In some veep crossover, Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) appointed Ridge to the independent panel studying the Virginia Tech shootings… Ridge may always be remembered for his color-coded charts (and the emotions those invoked) at Homeland… But his Achilles heel in this process? His support of abortion rights; in fact, his pro-abortion rights stance derailed his veep chances in 1996 and 2000. On the trail : McCain is in Pennsylvania, holding a town hall and raising money in Wilkes-Barre, PA. He later visits his campaign headquarters in Harrisburg before heading to New Orleans, where he meets tonight with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Obama, meanwhile, spends his day in Israel.
Countdown to Dem convention: 33 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails .
McCain yesterday launched one of his toughest attacks yet on Senator Barack Obama, saying his Democratic rival ‘would rather lose a war in order to win a campaign.’” Washington Post : “Obama said he had hoped to avoid political warfare with his rival while overseas, but the attention the candidate's trip is receiving in the United States and potential implications for the November election makes that all but impossible. Minutes after the news conference, McCain's campaign issued a statement blasting the Democratic candidate. ‘By continuing his opposition to the surge strategy long after it has proven successful and by admitting that his plan for withdrawal places him at odds with General David Petraeus, Barack Obama has made clear that his goal remains unconditional withdrawal rather than securing the victory our troops have earned and the surge has made possible,’ spokesman Tucker Bounds said.”
VIDEO: Race for the White House panelists Rachel Maddow and Stephen Hayes debate which presidential candidate, Barack Obama or John McCain, is showing better judgement on Iraq. Obama
declared yesterday that there is a "growing consensus" in the United States and Iraq for a timeline to withdraw American combat forces, and that the United States now urgently needs to turn its attention to Afghanistan. "If we responsibly end the war in Iraq, we can strengthen our military, step up our efforts to finish the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and succeed in leaving Iraq to a sovereign government that can take responsibility for its own future," Obama said at his first news conference since touring Afghanistan and Iraq. "The situation in Afghanistan is perilous and urgent," he said, calling the country the "central front in the war against terrorism."
Another McCain gaffe? The AP : “‘Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening,’ McCain said, referring to the U.S.-backed revolt of Sunni sheiks against al-Qaida in Anbar province. ‘I mean, that's just a matter of history.’ The problem with McCain's statement -- as Obama's campaign quickly noted -- was that the awakening got under way before President Bush announced in January 2007 his decision to flood Iraq with tens of thousands of additional U.S. troops to help combat violence.”CONTINUED >>
The New York Times' Maureen Dowd points out a visual contrast this week that's going to be remembered for some time. "The image of John McCain in a golf cart with Bush 41 in Kennebunkport — with Poppy charmingly admitting that they were ‘a little jealous’ of all the Obama odyssey coverage — was not a good advertisement for the future, especially contrasted with the shots of Gen. David Petraeus and Obama smiling at each other companionably in a helicopter surveying Iraq. (Asked by a Democratic lawmaker a while back why there weren’t more Democrats in the military, General Petraeus smiled slyly and said ‘there are more than you think.’)"
In a separate piece, the New York Times’ Stanley also writes on the visual contrasts. "It wasn’t a television blackout of John McCain; it was worse: split-screen contrasts that at times made it seem as if Barack Obama was on a state visit while back home his opponent chafed at the perks and privileges of an incumbent commander in chief."
More: “While Mr. Obama was shown striding across military tarmacs and inspecting troops standing at attention, Mr. McCain on Monday was seen being driven around in a golf cart by former President George Bush in the resort town of Kennebunkport, Me. Later, the two men spoke to reporters side by side at a waterfront, and they looked more like fellow members of a Past Presidents’ Club than a party elder passing the torch to his political heir.”
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses whether attacking the media is a smart political move for John McCain. And: “Mr. McCain’s surrogates complained bitterly about the Obama news blitz; on Tuesday the McCain campaign put out a Web video mocking reporters’ doting coverage with a montage of anchors’ gauzy looks and glowing praise set to the tune of the Frankie Valli hit ‘Can’t Take My Eyes Off of You.’ But it’s not pro-Obama bias in the news media that’s driving the effusion of coverage, it’s the news: Mr. Obama’s weeklong tour of war zones and foreign capitals is noteworthy because it is so unusual to see a presidential candidate act so presidential overseas. Mr. Obama looks supremely confident and at home talking to generals and heads of state, so much so that some viewers may find the pose presumptuous — as if Mr. Obama believes that not only is his official nomination at the Democratic convention in August a mere formality, so is the November election."
CONTINUED >>
The reviews of Obama's overseas trip continue to be positive. From today's Washington Post : Obama "has remade the campaign's foreign policy playing field, neatly sidestepping Republican charges that he has been naive and wrong on Iraq and moving to a broader, post-Iraq focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan."
VIDEO: A Hardball panel discusses whether Barack Obama's Middle East trip will be a political success. The
New York Daily News' DeFrank writes under the headline, "Obama hits grand slam in Mideast tour; 'he's won the week' vs. McCain." "John McCain may rue the day he ever taunted Barack Obama into going to Iraq. Obama's four-day visit to the combat zones was a political tour de force, generating mega-coverage back home that left McCain gasping for traction. 'Unless he screws up in Israel or Europe, he's already won the week,' a former Bush White House aide conceded."
Perhaps the toughest day of Obama's trip happens today. The London Times : "The Democratic presidential candidate, who is struggling to win over Jewish voters in America and is viewed with suspicion in Israel, holds meetings in Jerusalem and the West Bank today during the thorniest leg of his international tour. It will be a far cry from the rapturous public reception that he is likely to receive in Berlin tomorrow." More: "Israelis are particularly suspicious of Mr Obama because of his willingness to talk to Iran’s leadership, and a perception that he is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Unlike a visit to the region by his Republican rival John McCain in May, the Democrat will not only hold meetings in Jerusalem, but will travel to the West Bank city of Ramallah to talk with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, and Salam Fayyad, the Prime Minister." CONTINUED >>
NORTH CAROLINA : The Raleigh News and Observer looks at the seriousness of the Obama effort in the state and how the McCain campaign is responding. The Republicans quoted in the story appear to still be operating on the belief Obama's not REALLY taking North Carolina that seriously.
“There remains some skepticism among Republicans about whether the Obama effort is for real or just a feint. Some of them think Obama is likely to refocus his efforts on more traditional swing states closer to the election. ‘We are anticipating that it could be a race in North Carolina,’ said Ferrell Blount, a former state GOP chairman from Pitt County who is advising the McCain campaign. ‘But we are not totally convinced it will be at this point. But we want to be prepared to spend some money in North Carolina, and we are trying to make some preparations.’”
REPUBLICANS : A Republican who attended a private meeting in New Hampshire with McCain said that the Arizona senator "out of the blue" told the gathering that he thinks they are "really going to like" MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel debates: How could John McCain not choose Mitt Romney as his running mate? A Romney source
claims he’s “near the top of a very short list” for VP. Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom
repeats in an e-mail : "There's a lot of guessing and speculation going on, but the fact is that Governor Romney expects to be campaigning for John McCain as a supporter and not as a member of the ticket."
There was
no comment from Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R-LA) staff about what his expected meeting with McCain today would cover.
At one of his town meetings,
Jindal said : "I'm not gonna be vice-president. I have no interest in that. I want to be governor of Louisiana." Jindal also
said on CBS this morning that McCain will not offer him the vice presidency, and that he has not confirmed McCain’s Louisiana visit.
Kathleen Parker wonders of Jindal is what Republicans have been waiting for. “Although Jindal is less well-known, he's got rising star power. Importantly, he's young -- and looks even younger. If he had cheeks, you'd want to pinch them. Reed-thin, Jindal has the metabolism of a hummingbird and the kind of intellect that makes Vulcans uneasy. Often referred to as the smartest man in the room, Jindal's mind can wrap around anything but the idea of repose. More to an important point, he's not another white guy.”
CONTINUED >>
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger…
REPUBLICANS : Supporters of Ron Paul
are moving their counter-convention to a larger space, closer to the St. Paul festivities. The “Rally for the Republic” will be held at the Minneapolis Target Center (home of the Minnesota Timberwolves) between Aug. 31 and Sept. 2.
A third protest march to the convention site has been announced. This one comes from the Anti-War Committee, a Twin Cities peace group and is planned for Sept. 4, the last day of the convention.
An important note for all headed to the Twin Cities: The Bloomington City Council is
allowing bars to stay open to 4 am during convention week, but unlike Minneapolis and St. Paul, bar owners won’t have to pay $2,500 to do so.
DEMOCRATS : The committee hosting the Denver convention has been using the city’s gas pumps to refuel without paying state and federal taxes for four months . Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper says the Denver 2008 Host Committee will pay market price for fuel, but a Public Works spokeswoman said the committee, which has not yet paid for the gas its used, would be charged without the taxes.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli told reporters today: “When we are ready to announce, we will announce.” Bob Novak, appearing on FNC, says he got the tip from a very senior McCain aide, but acknowledges he may have been used. two major events under their control and they must be done correctly, not in a reactive fashion. If [Novak's report] is for real and they are about to name a vice president, it's campaign malpractice.” ON THE RECORD. On MSNBC, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) said he’s “stopped engaging in those discussions,” re: whether he’s being vetted. Pawlenty also appeared on Fox News, saying McCain would want to choose someone who could add to the ticket on issues and experience, and be someone he’s comfortable with.
VIDEO: A Hardball panel debates: Will John McCain choose his running mate this week? Sen. Lindsay
Graham (R-SC) says
Romney is “
very much a contender ” for VP, and said the two have a good relationship. And McCain himself, when asked about Romney in NH today, offered his
familiar refrain : “Mitt has been of tremendous help to my campaign. He’s been on television. He does a better job for me than he did for himself. I told him. He’s been great.”
WHAT THEY’RE UP TO. Officially, Pawlenty was in Washington for a meeting of the Strategic Management of Human Capital Task Force. (Yes, it
apparently does exist .) He did spend some time at McCain HQ, but was expected to be airborne this afternoon and would not rendezvous with McCain in nearby Baltimore, per an aide to the governor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Mark Murray
On the tarmac after arriving in Israel,
Obama made a brief statement...
"We've had a long day and I will have ample opportunity to talk to all of you tomorrow. But I wanted start by saying that it is wonderful to be back in Israel. I had an extraordinary trip the last time I was here. I am looking forward to spending the day tomorrow not only traveling around the country, but also having discussions with Israelis leadership about some of the profound security issues that both the US and Israel are gonna have to confront in the years to come."
VIDEO: Barack Obama makes stops in Israel and the West Bank, meeting with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Jerusalem. Obama added, "I want input and insight from Israel's leaders about how they see the current situation; I'll share some of my ideas. The most important idea for me to reaffirm is the historic, special relationship between the United States and Israel -- one that cannot be broken, one that I have affirmed through out my career, and one that I would intend to not only continue but actually strengthen in an Obama Administration. My last thought is to the families who suffered the terrible tragedy that we saw today. And it's just one more reminder of why we have to work diligently, urgently, and in a unified way to defeat terrorism. There are no excuses, and I am absolutely committed to working with the Israeli government to make sure these kinds of occurrences do not happen and my thoughts and prayers go out to the families that have suffered as a consequence of today's vicious attacks. Thank you everybody, have a nice evening."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
ROCHESTER, NH -- During a return trip to the state that he won in the 2000 primaries and that launched him on the road to this year's GOP nomination,
McCain got more than he bargained for from the independent-minded voters he is so complimentary of on the campaign trail. Before opening up to questions from the audience of several hundred that crowded into the Opera House downtown here, McCain picked up on his campaign's message of the day:
Obama and Iraq.
"I had the courage and the judgment to say that I would rather lose a political campaign than lose a war," McCain said, referencing a tag line he used to defend his support for the troop surge in Iraq. "It seems to me that Sen. Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign."
But McCain had to deal with at least one audience member today who is sympathetic to Obama's view of the situation in Iraq. An older woman engaged McCain on the issue, voicing vehement opposition to the US involvement there and saying that "we are in Iraq against international law," and all of the deaths that have occurred in that country verge on "criminal."
"Now the idea that we might someday have a stable democratic government there is not ours to impose on that country," the questioner said. "We should not be there in my opinion. We need to leave the country. The people of that country are asking us to leave. The prime minister of that country is asking us to leave."
McCain allowed the woman to speak and follow up several times, but each time he was unmoved by her impassioned plea against the war, reiterating that the US has "succeeded" and even arguing that Iraqis are now living normal lives.
"The fact is that everybody recognizes, including Prime Minister Maliki, that we have to have conditions-based withdrawal, and we all -- we are gonna withdraw," McCain said. "We will withdraw. The fact is, is whether we withdraw in victory or whether we withdraw in defeat. And again, you and I have different versions. We have succeeded. The Sadr City is safe. Mosul is safe. Basra is safe. The people of Iraq, and I've been there, are now leading normal lives."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
King Abdullah gave
Obama a ride to the airport, after their one-on-one meeting and a dinner with several American and Jordanian officials at the royal palace today.
The king, who drove the car himself, walked the senator to the edge of the stairs and they chatted briefly, out of earshot of cameras, before Obama boarded.
Obama now heads to Israel for a day packed with meetings.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Obama's press conference, McCain's senior foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, took off the gloves and launched an attack at the foundation of Obama's foreign policy argument: his judgment.
The other participants on the call -- Rep. Heather Wilson (who lost her Senate primary in New Mexico earlier this year) and Sen. Sam Brownback -- emphasized that the difference between McCain and Obama on the issue of Iraq is that McCain's strategy is not based on the calendar but rather conditions on the ground.
VIDEO: At a town hall meeting in New Hampshire, Sen. John McCain criticizes Sen. Barack Obama's plans for withdrawal in Iraq. But the merits of this sort of civil differentiation seemed lost on Scheunemann, who launched into a long diatribe questioning Obama's record and where his judgment on foreign policy comes from. After first saying that Obama's recent comments while overseas prove that he "seems to forget that we have elections in this country not coronations," Scheunemann made the point that Obama's approach to the situation in Iraq is based on ... nothing.
"He refuses to credit Gen. Petraeus and Gen. Odierno for their leadership; he disparages their strategic judgment and trumpets his own," Scheunemann began. "What is Sen. Obama's judgment based on? His tenure at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, when he did not hold a single substantive hearing? His years in the Illinois state Senate or as a community organizer? Or is it based on his international experience gleaned while he was in junior high school in Indonesia or on a college spring break trip in Pakistan? Or is it based on the memos and briefing papers from his 300 foreign policy advisers?"
"The reality," he continued, "is that Sen. Obama's judgment on the most important national security questions facing our country in 2007 was wrong, and it demonstrates both his inexperience and his ideological rigidity."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Abby Livingston Obama said the message he had received in Iraq was that Iraqis were ready to begin to do more to stand up for themselves, and that there was a growing agreement that more troops and aid were needed for Afghanistan.
“I believe that the best way to support Iraqi sovereignty and to encourage the Iraqis to stand up is through the responsible redeployment of our combat brigades,” he said. “I welcome the growing consensus in the United States and Iraq for a timeline. My view, based on the advice of military experts, is that we can redeploy safely in 16 months so that our combat brigades are out of Iraq in 2010.”
The senator, who declined to criticize McCain or to give him points for his “judgment” with regard to supporting the surge, said he had a “terrific” conversation with Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker and repeated his commitment to withdrawing troops from Iraq carefully.
He reiterated what he said in a prior interview that his role as a candidate for commander-in-chief was to take in all factors -- beyond Iraq -- when dealing with matters of national security. But he also said that he understood that Petraeus was not in favor of a timeline, in part because the general wants the highest level of flexibility to achieve his mission.
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Is he in or is he out? Bob Novak and CNBC's Larry Kudlow say he's in. In addition to Kudlow's reporting, Steve Forbes told Kudlow he thinks Gramm would still be at least giving "advice" to the candidate.
VIDEO: The Nation's Chris Hayes talks with Countdown's Keith Olbermann about the resignation of Phil Gramm, McCain campaign co-chairman. "Oh, I think in terms of advice Phil Gramm will be critical, which is good because on things like trade he is absolutely right," Forbes told Kudlow. "I think John McCain has a long friendship with Phil Gramm, so this was something, Phil Gramm said something that you're not supposed to say these days, and he paid a price for it, but in terms of the relationship, I think it's as strong as ever, and in the McCain administration, I think phil Gramm's advice will be taken to heart." More: "Gramm's been in presidential politics, as I have, and when these things happen, somebody walks the plank, but I think in terms of relationship and the philosophy, that's not going to change."
This, as well as the Gramm news in general, has set off some ideological irritation/debate/hand wringing on both sides.
The conservative TownHall : "As Kudlow notes, Gramm's influence is sorely missed on the trail. His absence seems to have removed the fiscal conservative moorings from the campaign, and as a result, McCain has apparently lapsed back into a more populist message."
Powerline : "The comments were not baseless, but they were highly impolitic. ... After Gramm made his remarks, McCain joked that there might be a role in his administration for Gramm as ambassador to Belarus. I suspect that Gramm would have a more prominent role to play, and that's a good thing."
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From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd McCain would benefit from naming his veep as quickly as possible. Why? "[N]aming his VP choice now moves McCain¹s campaign beyond the unhelpful debate about the base and whether his running mate will appeal to the most conservative voters out there. The discussion ought to be focused on who can best address the issues that concern the vast majority of voters."
VIDEO: In the Hardball Power Rankings, a panel takes a closer look at who's best suited to become the next vice president. More: "For McCain, much of the VP speculation has focused on two criteria -- age and mollifying the base. His VP announcement gives him the opportunity to put the base argument to rest and take back the No. 1 issue for most voters: the economy."
Then again, if McCain wants to pick someone who isn't in tune with the base -- say a Tom Ridge, who supports abortion rights -- then you do it very late, so drama doesn't build for the convention.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro A man in Amman: Obama has arrived in Jordan, beginning the post-Afghanistan/Iraq part of his overseas trip. Per NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Obama will hold a press conference at the Amman Citadel with Chuck Hagel and Jack Reed, who accompanied the presumptive Democratic nominee on his visit to Iraq and Afghanistan. After that, Obama will have a wide-ranging, one-on-one talk with Jordan’s King Abdullah at the king’s residence. During the half-hour meeting, which will be attended by an American “notetaker,” Obama and the king will address matters of regional stability and the Israeli-Palestinian issue, advisers said. Obama will later dine with the king, Queen Rania, and several American and Jordanian officials, including Hagel and Reed. So far, there hasn’t been a misstep, as the New York Times front-pages this morning. And Obama has certainly benefited from the news over the past few days. Does that continue with today’s press conference, tomorrow’s jam-packed day in Israel, and Thursday’s speech in Berlin (which produced plenty of questions at today’s pen-and-pad with reporters in Jordan)?
VIDEO: Following a visit to Iraq, Obama heads to Jordan for talks with King Abdullah. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Amman. ***
The surge revisited: Republicans, meanwhile, have jumped all over Obama’s response to ABC’s Terry Moran, who asked the Illinois senator yesterday whether he would support the surge if he had to do it all over again. Obama answered no. “Well, these kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult. Hindsight is 20-20," he said. "But I think that what I am absolutely convinced of is at that time we had to change the political debate, because the view of the Bush Administration … was one that I just disagreed with and one that I continue to disagree -- which is to look narrowly at Iraq and not focus on these broader issues.” But ask yourself this: Wouldn’t Republicans be jumping all over Obama for flip-flopping had he answered that he now backs the surge? (And isn't this the same kind of question as asking McCain if he regrets voting for the Iraq war, which he still stands by.) Of course, as we mentioned yesterday, Republicans want to redirect the narrative back to the surge (which tends to benefit McCain) versus withdrawal (which tends to help Obama).
*** Shiny metal object time: Yesterday, citing sources close to the campaign, Bob Novak reported that McCain might make his VP pick this week. Soon after, McCain sources told the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza that McCain would be meeting with Bobby Jindal on Wednesday when he travels to the state. Are the McCain folks throwing shiny metal objects into the air as the political world fixates on Obama? That probably makes sense if you look at McCain's schedule. Today, he's in New Hampshire; tomorrow, it's Pennsylvania before heading to meet with Jindal, who's no longer considered a top-tier pick after the state legislator-pay controversy. Thursday takes him to Ohio, but would McCain want to compete with Obama's Berlin speech that day? And on Friday, he goes to California, hardly an ideal state or day to make a veep selection. What’s more, as NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell notes, Cindy McCain is out of the country this week, and it would be surprising for McCain to make his pick while his wife is away.
VIDEO: NB C Deputy Political Director Mark Murray takes a look at McCain's potential V.P. short list and addresses speculation that the Republican may soon announce his pick. ***
Trying to recapture the news cycle: What McCain’s advisers might be worried about, however, is Obama dominating the news cycle over the next two or three weeks. Think about it: After his overseas trip this week, what happens if -- as we mentioned yesterday -- Obama decides to make his VP pick the week of July 28 or August 4? That would mean two- or three-straight weeks of Obama dominating the news before the Olympics, which begins on August 8. And after the Olympics comes the Democratic convention. Perhaps it’s that kind of schedule that has McCain’s folks thinking about speeding up their VP process. Indeed, McCain's camp has been very focused on trying to win daily and weekly news cycles, more so than the Obama campaign. The Clintons and Bush were similarly obsessed with day-to-day news cycle victories. But is there a point of diminishing returns? Sure, McCain did seem to pull even on the campaign narrative yesterday, but did it advance the overall ball of the campaign? Obama's campaign arguably lost more news cycles post-Super Tuesday than he won; he simply won the ones that counted more often than Clinton. Is the McCain campaign too focused on this week's Obama narrative to the point that they've taken the eye off their long-term campaign message ball?
VIDEO: Reports swirl that McCain may announce his running mate this week, possibly in an effort to detract attention from Obama's international tour. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. ***
Battleground watch: Today, McCain holds a town hall on energy and the economy in Rochester, NH just as a brand-new University of New Hampshire poll shows Obama up by just three points in the state (46%-43%). That the margin is close isn’t too surprising: Kerry won the state by just 9,000 votes in 2004 (50%-49%), and Bush won it by 7,000 in 2000 (48%-47%). New Hampshire represents McCain’s best chance to a blue state red, in part because of the state’s independent streak as well as McCain’s primary victories there in 2000 and 2008. But the state is trending Democratic. In the midterm elections two years ago, Democratic challengers knocked off two incumbent GOP congressmen -- Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass -- as Democrats also took control of the state legislature. And former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) probably holds the edge this year against incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R).
***
Meet Chuck Hagel: In our latest installment of potential veep picks, we take a look at Chuck Hagel, who toured Afghanistan and Iraq with Obama and now joins him in Jordan… His father died when he was 16, and Hagel began working to support the family… Dropped out of college and worked as a radio DJ before he and his brother enlisted in Vietnam. While there, the brothers were hit by a mine while driving, and Hagel dragged his brother to safety despite his brother's body being on fire… Later, with just $5,000 in savings, he founded what became the second-largest cell-phone company in the country… Has a tradition of wearing costumes to the Senate (of his fellow senators) on Halloween… But Hagel as Obama’s VP? Consider that in what little Obama has said on the process, the Illinois senator said governance matters. Aside from Iraq, Obama and Hagel disagree on virtually everything -- abortion, stem-cell research, gay marriage, energy (he's to the right of McCain -- he's for drilling in ANWR), taxes, education, and so on.
*** On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Rochester, NH before heading to Baltimore for a fundraiser with former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). Obama is in Amman, Jordan, where he holds a press conference this morning and then later meets with King Abdullah. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The Washington Post front-pages that as Obama met yesterday with Iraq’s leaders, a “spokesman for the Iraqi government declared that it would like U.S. combat forces to complete their withdrawal by the end of 2010. The comments by spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh mark the second time in recent days that a senior Iraqi has endorsed a timetable for U.S. withdrawal that is roughly similar to the one advocated by Obama. Dabbagh suggested that a combat force pullout could be completed by the end of 2010, which would be about seven months longer than Obama's 16-month formulation.”
VIDEO: Countdown's Keith Olbermann talks with Newsweek's Howard Fineman about Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki backing Barack Obama's plan for withdrawing U.S. troops from that country within 16 months of taking office. The
New York Times : “The Iraqi government on Monday left little doubt that it favors a withdrawal plan for American combat troops similar to what Senator Barack Obama has proposed, providing Mr. Obama with a potentially powerful political boost on a day he spent in Iraq working to fortify his credibility as a wartime leader… The central tenet of Mr. Obama’s foreign policy is suddenly aligned with what the Iraqis themselves now increasingly seem to want. Not only have the developments offered Mr. Obama a measure of credibility as a prospective world leader in a week when his every move is receiving intensive attention at home and abroad, but it has complicated Mr. McCain’s leading argument against him: that a withdrawal timeline would be tantamount to surrender and would leave Iraqis in dangerous straits
The Los Angeles Times notes that the news “bolstered Obama's credibility on a key foreign policy issue, early in a weeklong trip to the Middle East and Europe that was designed to reassure voters concerned he lacks the experience to be commander in chief.”
The Washington Post’s Dan Balz adds, “[A]s political theater, the events of the past few days have played unfailingly in the Democrat's favor. On Friday, a day after Obama left for Afghanistan and Iraq, Bush administration officials announced that the United States and Iraq had agreed on a time horizon for removing troops. Then, twice in three days, Maliki embraced a withdrawal timeline similar to Obama's. Beyond that, McCain shifted ground to declare that he, too, favors sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan.”
“McCain, campaigning in Maine, was blistering in his criticism of Obama on Monday. He said his rival has been ‘completely wrong’ on Iraq and "has no military experience whatsoever," and argued again that any withdrawal from Iraq must be based on conditions on the ground.”
“‘The fact is, if we had done what Senator Obama wanted to do, we would have lost ,’ Mr. McCain said... ‘And we would have faced a wider war. And we would have had greater problems in Afghanistan and the entire region. And Iran would have increased their influence.’”
Also: “McCain appeared to leave a door open on Monday to a large-scale drawdown of U.S. troops from Iraq in the next two years.”
The Boston Globe front page highlights yesterday’s contrast in images between the two candidates. McCain: Suited up, standing side-by-side with a white turtenecked, tan-blazered President George H.W. Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine. Obama: In a helicopter seated next to Gen. David Petraeus with headsets on. The accompanying story shows McCain driven around in a golf cart by Bush, the number “41” on one side of the windshield, and a sign that reads, “Property of 41. Hands off!” on the other.
Politico writes: “Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) said ‘Iraq’ when he apparently meant ‘Afghanistan’ on Monday, adding to a string of mixed-up word choices that is giving ammunition to the opposition. Just in the past three weeks, McCain has also mistaken ‘Somalia’ for ‘Sudan,’ and even football’s Green Bay Packers for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ironically, the errors have been concentrated in what should be his area of expertise -- foreign affairs.”
VIDEO: Is John McCain too old to be president? Guest host David Shuster gets the latest reaction from GOP strategist Kevin Madden, Democratic analyst Tonya Acker and MSNBC analyst Carl Crawford. ”McCain will turn 72 the day after Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) accepts his party’s nomination for president, calling new attention to the sensitive issue of McCain’s advanced age, three days before the start of his own convention. The McCain campaign says Obama has had plenty of flubs of his own, including a reference to "57 states" and a string of misstated place names during the primaries that Republicans gleefully sent around as YouTubes. But McCain's mistakes raise a serious, if uncomfortable question: Are the gaffes the result of his age? And what could that mean in the Oval Office?”
The New York Times fact-checks latest TV ad, which blames Obama for high gas prices. “[E]ven before the recent spike, oil prices had been rising for a decade, the result of a variety of political and economic factors in places as far afield as China, India, Venezuela and Nigeria. So it is difficult to understand how Mr. Obama, a first-term senator, can be held responsible for that phenomenon. Aside from correctly stating current gasoline prices, [the ad] is misleading on nearly every substantive point. But it is shrewdly conceived and may prove to be effective with undecided voters upset about having to pay as much as $100 to fill their gas tanks, yet uncertain as to the causes of the squeeze on their budgets.”
The Washington Post also runs a fact-check. McCain “may try in this ad to blame rising gas prices on Barack Obama, but after 7 1/2 years of the Bush administration, that's a stretch.” More: “It's a bit audacious for McCain to charge that "some in Washington" still oppose offshore oil drilling, since that was his position, most notably in his 2000 presidential campaign, until he reversed himself last month.”
“The New York Times yesterday defended its decision not to publish an op-ed article as submitted by Republican John McCain about the Iraq war on grounds it customarily reviews such pieces with the author… In an e-mail to the campaign Friday, David Shipley, an op-ed editor at the newspaper, said he could not accept the piece in its current form, but would look at another version… ‘It is standard procedure on our op-ed page, and that of other newspapers, to go back and forth with an author on his or her submission. We look forward to publishing Senator McCain's views in our paper just as we have in the past." McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said the campaign will not submit a revised op-ed.”New York Post runs the column. could reverse his position and endorse John McCain despite serious misgivings. ‘There's nothing dishonorable in a person rethinking his or her positions, especially in a constantly changing political context,’ Dobson said in a statement. Barack Obama's ‘radical positions on life, marriage, and national security force me to reevaluate the candidacy of our only other choice, John McCain.’
The AP : “Obama traveled to a former hotbed of the Sunni insurgency on Tuesday for talks with tribal leaders who joined the fight against al-Qaida in Iraq and now seek a deeper role in Iraq's political future. Obama, wrapping up his stop in Iraq, gathered with leaders of the so-called Awakening Council movement in Ramadi, one of the main cities of the western Anbar Province where al-Qaida once had the upper hand against embattled U.S. and Iraqi troops. Tribal sheiks last year began an uprising against insurgents that is credited with uprooting extremist strongholds and helping bring violence around Iraq to its lowest levels in four years.”
VIDEO: Following a visit to Iraq, where he discussed plans for U.S. troop withdrawal, presidential hopeful Barack Obama heads to Jordan for talks with King Abdullah. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Amman. NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones previews Obama’s jam-packed stop in Israel tomorrow. He will meet first with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, then with opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. After that, he’ll visit the Holocaust museum and memorial at Yad Veshim, and will meet with President Shimon Peres. He then heads to Ramallah to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad; then he heads to Sderot; and finally visits in the evening with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. He will also meet with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni at some point tomorrow, and it isn’t yet clear whether Obama will have a chance to visit the Western Wall, an important religious site in Jerusalem.
It is important for Obama to visit Sderot, a border town that has come under repeated rocket attacks from Hamas, advisers said. “The significance is self-evident,” said one. “It’s a place in which Israel’s security is every day at risk and threatened and Sen. Obama will have the opportunity to see that firsthand and to get a very personal feel for the everyday implications of that insecurity for the residents of Sderot.”
In a pen-and-pad briefing this morning outlining the trip, Obama advisers were pressed repeatedly on the size, scope, and character of Obama’s planned speech in Berlin on Thursday, Jones adds. “There’s a great deal of interest in his visit. We want to accommodate that interest,” said chief strategist David Axelrod when asked about the thousands of people expected at the event.
Advisers said the content of the speech would speak for itself and stressed that the simple fact that large numbers of people were expected to attend does not make it a “campaign speech” because it has nothing to do with campaigns. “The speech is not going to be a speech about campaign issues. He is not going to address campaign issues in terms of other candidates. It is not a speech about American politics. It is not a campaign event. We are not trying to recruit support from the crowds that are coming. It is not a campaign event,” Axelrod said, later allowing that: “Anything you do in the midst of a campaign will be viewed by some through that prism.”
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MICHIGAN: A new
Detroit News-WXYZ-EPIC-MRA poll has Obama leading by two points in Michigan, 43%-41%. “The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average.”
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli… REPUBLICANS: Jonathan Martin reported that McCain’s search has indeed narrowed “to the point where he considered a decision this week -- but he’s likely to hold off.” Aides were “relishing the diversion, [and] they also did not discourage the speculation.” CNN : “Even some of McCain’s own advisers admit that just leaking the possibility of a VP selection could take some of the attention away from Obama -- which could, in fact, be what the campaign is trying to do.”
VIDEO: Reports swirl that John McCain may announce his running mate this week, possibly in an effort to detract attention from Barack Obama's international tour. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. Adding to the McCain speculation was this report that he’d be
meeting in Louisiana with Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA). Jindal said he
has no meeting on the schedule.
A Mitt Romney spokesperson said he’s in Canada with family, and is expected to be there for at least a week.
Marc
Ambinder : “I don't think the McCain campaign will do much to tamp down on this speculation because it drives press attention to their campaign. But I don't expect McCain to announce his pick this week. He might have wanted to, at some point, and told one of his friends.”
Rudy Giuliani, on Today: “I am not on the short list, I don’t want to be on the short list, and I think Sen. McCain has some excellent choices.” On “Morning Joe,” he said he’s not being vetted, and said he doesn’t believe he’s being considered. He also said he doesn’t think an announcement’s coming this week.
DEMOCRATS: Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) was asked whether David Petraeus embraced Obama’s 16-month troop-withdrawal schedule. “Reed did not directly answer that question. Nor has Reed -- who has generally tried to push for troop withdrawals without hard deadlines -- explicitly endorsed Obama’s troop-withdrawal timetable.” Wall Street Journal’s Seib profiles Reed, saying he gives Obama cover on Iraq, if he brings nothing else to the ticket. Los Angeles Times reports that Clinton backers have given Obama’s camp $1.6 million. But Obama backers gave Clinton just $105,000 in June.
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger… DEMOCRATS: How can the 38-year-old DNCC director of sustainability and greening have
25 years of experience , as Andrea Robinson’s bio claims? “Smith reports she did, in fact, start her first environmental non-profit when she was 13 - though that particular job does not show up on Robinson's resume.” Also not on her resume, an extensive acting career, including appearances on “Baywatch” and “Joey.”
REPUBLICANS: Work
started Monday on converting the Xcel Energy Center. Organizers say working with a modern arena has its advantages. “With a modern, state-of-the-art arena, I can't single out big problems. There will be surprises, but they'll be relatively minor. We looked at the Metrodome and the Target Center and this one and found this to be ideal.”
The Iowa Republican delegation
will not have Sen. Charles Grassley in it. He was passed over as part of a rise of social conservatives in the state party. Grassley will still have floor privileges in St. Paul.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli THE SHORT LIST: Bob Novak reports, citing sources close to the McCain camp, that the Arizona senator may pick his running mate this week while Obama is overseas.
ON THE RECORD:
Tom Ridge tells PolitickerPA .com that McCain has a “steep climb” in the Keystone State. Asked about his VP status, Ridge says: "John and I have had no conversations about it. When John lets me know, I'll have more to say. If John lets me know."
During a South Florida stop, Joe Lieberman again signaled he’d be an unlikely pick for veep. “I had the opportunity to run in 2000,” he said.
WHAT THEY’RE UP TO: Mitt Romney was on Bill Bennnett’s morning show . Bennett did not ask Romney about VP speculation, but began the interview by saying he’d make a great VP pick. Romney said that he’s currently in Canada with his family.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama in the fall. But a new poll conducted by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, and commissioned for Women's Voices, Women Vote Action Fund, shows that it's also important not to overlook the role that unmarried women might play in the general election.
In the poll -- which was conducted among 1,004 registered unmarried women from June 19-24 in key battleground states -- Obama holds a 32-point lead over McCain (61%-29%) among this demographic. By comparison, another recent Greenberg/Democracy Corps survey has him leading McCain among married by just one point (49%-48%).
VIDEO: NBC's Kelly O'Donnell is on the campaign trail with John McCain, as the Republican presidential candidate focuses on women issues and the economy. This marital gap isn't new. In 2004, according to exit polls, unmarried women voted for John Kerry by a 62%-37% margin, and they backed Democratic candidates in the 2006 midterms, 65%-32%. On the other hand, Kerry lost married women by 11 points to Bush in 2004, and the married vote was essentially split between Democrats and Republicans in the midterms.
Perhaps most interesting are the number of unmarried women in this country. Per Census data, there are 53 million unmarried women in this country -- which is almost equal to the number of married women, both representing 26% of the voting-age population. In fact, Page Gardner, president of Women's Voices, Women Vote Action Fund, says that unmarried women represent the nation's fastest-growing demographic. "It is huge and it's growing," she told First Read. "This is an extremely important demographic."
One of the poll's conclusions is that increasing the size of the unmarried women's vote -- from 22% of all voters in 2004 to 24% in 2008 -- could result in at least a two-point increase in Obama's total, "a huge gain in presidential politics."
But turning out unmarried women to vote hasn't always been easy. In 2004, according to the polling analysis, 41% of unmarried women DIDN'T vote in 2004, versus 29% of married women who didn't.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
SOUTH PORTLAND, Maine -- After three morning fundraisers and a private meeting with former President George H.W.
Bush ,
McCain was at the new Maine Military Museum for a short rally with both current GOP senators from the state. McCain picked up where his campaign left off earlier in the day by hitting
Obama over his judgment on Iraq.
"My friends, Sen. Obama said it wouldn't work," McCain told the crowd here about Obama's opposition to the surge. "He opposed it. He said it would fail, and he refuses to this day to acknowledge that it has succeeded. My friends, that's what judgment is all about. That's why I'm qualified to lead, and I don't need any on the job training."
VIDEO: TODAY's Meredith Vieira talks to presidential hopeful John McCain about Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East, economic policy and the situation in Afghanistan. Earlier in the day McCain's top foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann handed out backhanded compliments to Obama for deciding to embark on his current overseas trip.
"Sen. Obama had said this is going to be a listening tour, we certainly hope very sincerely that he listens to the advice of our military commanders," Scheunemann said, before quoting several military leaders saying that a "date-driven withdrawal" without consideration of the facts on the ground would be "dangerous."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum is making the rounds in Baghdad today, meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki , President Jalal Talabani and Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi .
VIDEO: Following a brief stop in Afghanistan, presidential hopeful Barack Obama travels to Iraq to meet with U.S. commanders and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Baghdad. Calling Obama "precise" and "specific," Hashimi praised Obama for learning about the conditions on the ground.
Questions to Hashimi after his meeting with Obama quickly turned to the Illinois senator's proposed 16 month timetable. While Iraqi government spokesperson Ali Dabagh earlier called for a timetable "up to the end of 2010," Hashimi did not want to be bound to such specifics. "I don't want in fact to put any rigid or hard time schedule on that," Hashimi said, instead calling for a compromise on when American troops should return to the United States, along with taking care of a security vacuum and upgrading the capacity and potential of the Iraqi armed forces.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Alex Wall
The group’s President Richard Kirsch said in a conference call that America’s Health Insurance Plans is trying to fight healthcare reform by launching a “listening tour” in Columbus that identifies the “few customers that are satisfied with their health insurance.”
Kirsch called his group’s campaign a “coalition that represents literally millions of Americans who have come together for quality affordable health care for all”, and cited the groups’ 52 launch sites across the country to illustrate HCAN’s national scale.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain is going up with an ad that blames Obama for the high price of gas.
*** UPDATE ***
Obama camp includes this video of McCain saying the energy crisis is 30 years in the making and that what's needed is a long-term solution.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama today. However, it's doing it in several battleground states, as well as in DC.
The events: Cincinnati, OH (featuring Oregon Rep. Earl Blumenauer ); Denver, CO (featuring former Energy Secretary Federico Pena ); Santa Fe, NM (Gov. Bill Richardson ); Missoula, MT (Gov. Brian Schweitzer ); and Bloomfield Hills, MI. The one in DC features LCV President Gene Karpinski and former EPA Administration Carol Browner .
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain misspoke on ABC's Good Morning America , as he talked about the problems on the "Iraq-Pakistan border." He probably meant to say the Afghanistan-Pakistan border as they were talking about Afghanistan and there is no Iraq-Pakistan border.
McCain was asked if he agrees that the situation in Afghanistan is precarious and urgent. To that, he said, "Well I think it's very serious...I don't know the exact vocabulary, but it's a serious situation, but there's a lot of things we need to do. We have a lot of work to do and I'm afraid it's a very hard struggle, particularly given the situation on the Iraq/Pakistan border."
McCain has made other mistakes on the region, including confusing Sunni with Shia and on more than one occasion stating incorrectly that Al Qaeda was getting help from Iran.
Republicans have pointed out Obama telling CBS he'd be dealing with Maliki for the next eight to 10 years. They have snarkily said apparently Obama wants to change the Constitution because the most a president can serve is eight years. If Obama were to serve two terms, that would be about eight-and-a-half years from now. Republicans also point out that it's been 925 days since Obama has been to Iraq, but McCain has been there eight times.
On TODAY this morning, McCain told NBC's Meredith Vieira, "And you can't choose to lose a war in Iraq in my view in order to win in Afghanistan. Of course we have problems in Afghanistan and as we succeed in Iraq there will be troops available to go to Afghanistan, but it's more than just troops. Senator Obama doesn't understand that it is a strategy, the same strategy that succeeded in Iraq, we will employ in Afghanistan, the one that he rejected and still does not accept the success of."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro McCain's rough weekend: You know you had a problematic weekend when: 1) one of your top economic advisers/surrogates finally steps down from the campaign after his “nation of whiners” remark; 2) you get panned for breaking CODEL protocol/etiquette by announcing (incorrectly) at a fundraiser that your opponent is headed to Iraq on Friday or Saturday; 3) the prime minister of Iraq tells a German magazine that he backs your opponent's plan for withdrawing troops from that country; and 4) when the Iraqi government tries to walk back that support, it does so unconvincingly. On the bright side for McCain, his campaign seized on remarks from Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen that withdrawing US troops over the next two years would be “dangerous.” And he starts this week anew with a tour of battleground states -- taking him to Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- as well as with an interview on TODAY in which he defended his position on Iraq (“I was right about the surge at the darkest time”) and talked about Maliki’s Der Spiegel interview (saying that Iraq wants us out of the country, but based on conditions on the ground).
VIDEO: Barack Obama meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in Baghdad. NBC's Ned Colt reports. ***
Already time to go home? Per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Obama has arrived in Baghdad and he spoke with Maliki. The headline after their photo-op: Maliki’s spokesman said afterwards (in English) that the Iraqi vision is for all US troops to be out of Iraq by 2010. And with this news -- as well as the Der Spiegel interview, in which Maliki seemed to back Obama’s withdrawal plan -- the trip seems like it has already been a PR success for the Illinois senator. If he could, Obama should probably come home from right now. But he won’t. After visiting Iraq, his overseas trip will take him to Jordan, Israel, Germany (where he will speak at the Victory Column, not the Brandenburg Gate), France, and the United Kingdom. How bad was the Maliki interview for the McCain campaign? As one GOP strategist who occasionally provides advice to the campaign told the
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder : “We’re fu&$@#.” It's hard to imagine the trip can get better at this point for Obama. If anything, there are two big moments left which are fraught with peril: Israel and the campaign speech on foreign soil.
*** Surge vs. withdrawal: Obama has the easier fact to sell: Maliki wants troops out in 16 months. But how about the fact that this weekend -- after a yearlong boycott -- a key Sunni bloc rejoined the Iraqi government? Doesn't this mean that the surge which, coincidentally started over a year ago, provided breathing space for political reconciliation? And herein lies McCain's frustration with the coverage of this trip and with Maliki in particular: Does Maliki talk up the surge or focus on withdrawal? It also shouldn’t be ignored that Maliki is playing politics with Bush here. This is yet another nail in the Lame Duck coffin, which has to make the current 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. occupant a little nuts.
*** Conventional vs. comfort: Turning back home, all indications are pointing to Obama's veep pick getting announced in the 10-day window after he gets back from Europe and before the Olympics. (Maybe, given the calendar, we're stating the obvious at this point, but everything is about timetables in the Obama campaign, right?) Speaking of the veepstakes process, one criterion that is too often overlooked is the "comfort factor ." Both nominees are the leaders who prefer to surround themselves with people they like and respect. Sure, both have attempted to sell themselves as politicians who will sit down with anyone with any point of view. But both hate to hear calculation enter the equation in a hiring decision. Would it be that much of a surprise if both men end up making politically risky picks in the name of comfort? For instance, there's a lot of chatter that McCain is particularly fond of both Tom Ridge and Mike Bloomberg, and that he could see himself partnering with either of these two to help run the country. But politically, both would be tough sells to the socially conservative crowd. For Obama, a comfort pick would be Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius, or even Jack Reed. Will the Obama and McCain picks end up being picks of comfort or conventional? Stay tuned.
*** Meet Jack Reed: Speaking of Reed… The Rhode Island senator, who is on the overseas trip with Obama, has been to Iraq 11 times (and voted against the original Iraq war resolution)… The widely respected voice on national security is a 1971 West Point grad, though he did not fight in Vietnam. The Army Ranger paratrooper, who eventually commanded the 82nd Airborne, was assigned elsewhere… Father was a school custodian and WWII vet… Was on a trip to Afghanistan with McCain and Lieberman when he first met his wife… Took weekly art classes at the age of 5 at the Rhode Island School of Design… Big Will Ferrell fan and drives a 1991 Ford Escort… Differing with Obama, he was against the 1991 Gulf War and voted against the recent compromise FISA legislation.
VIDEO: Days after outlining a plan to expand President Bush's faith-based initiative, Barack Obama was back before another church group, as he and John McCain jostle for religious voters. ***
A Purpose-Driven forum: The
New York Times is reporting that McCain and Obama will speak at a forum at Rev. Rick Warren’s megachurch on August 16, and they will appear on stage together for a brief amount of time. This is the blueprint for groups who are trying to get Obama and McCain together on the same stage. Why did Obama agree to this Rick Warren forum? Because it provides him two things: 1) access to a constituency group he might not win over and 2) an opportunity to prove his Christianity bona fides. McCain gets less out of this because he's appealing to voters he needs to have, but it does give him a bigger spotlight at a time he made need it.
*** Hillary’s debt: Looking at her June FEC filing, the New York Times reports that Clinton loaned herself an additional $1 million (up to a total of $13.2 million), and that her debt to her vendors rose from $10.4 million to $12 million. The paper also writes that in June, “the Clinton campaign took in just $2.7 million from donors in June, less than the $5.4 million it spent.”
*** On the trail: McCain is in Maine, where he meets with former President George H.W. Bush in Kennebunkport and later raises money there before heading to a picnic at the Maine Military Museum in South Portland. Obama is in Iraq.
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The New York Times says that on the eve of Obama’s Iraq visit, “its prime minister tried to step back Sunday from comments in an interview in which he appeared to support Mr. Obama’s plan for troop withdrawal… Mr. Maliki's interview prompted immediate concern from the Bush administration, which called to seek clarification from Mr. Maliki’s office, American officials said… After that, the government’s spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, issued a statement casting doubt on the magazine’s rendering of the interview. The statement, which was distributed to media organizations by the American military early on Sunday, said Mr. Maliki’s words had been ‘misunderstood and mistranslated,’ but it failed to cite specifics.”
VIDEO: As Barack Obama talks of timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, how does he differ with John McCain on the future of U.S. troops there? NBC's Lester Holt speaks with NBC's Andrea Mitchell. “‘Unfortunately, Der Spiegel was not accurate,’ Mr. Dabbagh said Sunday by telephone. ‘I have the recording of the voice of Mr. Maliki. We even listened to the translation.’ But the interpreter for the interview works for Mr. Maliki’s office, not the magazine. And in an audio recording of Mr. Maliki’s interview that Der Spiegel provided to The New York Times, Mr. Maliki seemed to state a clear affinity for Mr. Obama’s position, bringing it up on his own in an answer to a general question on troop presence.”
Here’s the transcript of the Der Spiegel interview:
And Der Spiegel is standing by its reporting of the conversation with Maliki. “A number of media outlets likewise professed to being confused by the statement from Maliki's office. The New York Times pointed out that al-Dabbagh's statement ‘did not address a specific error.’ CBS likewise expressed disbelief pointing out that Maliki mentions a timeframe for withdrawal three times in the interview and then asks, ‘how likely is it that SPIEGEL mistranslated three separate comments?’ Matthew Yglesias, a blogger for the Atlantic Monthly, was astonished by ‘how little effort was made’ to make the Baghdad denial convincing. And the influential blog IraqSlogger also pointed out the lack of specifics in the government statement. SPIEGEL sticks to its version of the conversation. Maliki's comments immediately hit the headlines of US papers and Web sites across the country, partly the result of a White House employee inadvertently sending out a news alert to its full media distribution list. The White House said it was an error and that it was meant to be sent internally only.”
Reporting from Baghdad, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell says that the Maliki government is trying to put pressure on the Bush Administration to set a timetable for withdrawal.
CONTINUED >>
The AP reports, “Conservative Christian leader James Dobson has softened his stance against Republican presidential hopeful John McCain, saying he could reverse his position and endorse the Arizona senator despite serious misgivings. ‘I never thought I would hear myself saying this,’ Dobson said in a radio broadcast to air Monday. ‘... While I am not endorsing Senator John McCain, the possibility is there that I might.’”
More: “Earlier, Dobson had said he could not in good conscience vote for McCain, citing the candidate's support for embryonic stem cell research and opposition to a federal constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, as well as concerns about McCain's temper and foul language.”
Also on the evangelical front, the New York Times notes that the “Rev. Rick Warren has persuaded the candidates to attend a forum at his Saddleback Church, in Lake Forest, Calif., on Aug. 16. In an interview, Mr. Warren said over the weekend that the presidential candidates would appear together for a moment but that he would interview them in succession at his megachurch.”
The New York Times profiles McCain’s evolution as a dealmaker in the Senate. “Previously a marginal player better known for heckling the Senate than for influencing it, Mr. McCain returned from the 2000 campaign with a new national reputation and a new political sophistication. Over the next eight years, he mastered the art of political triangulation -- variously teaming up with Mr. Lott against the president or the new Republican leaders, with Democrats against Republicans, and with the president against the Democrats -- to become perhaps the chamber’s most influential member.”
McCain didn't make Michigan’s auto industry happy when he said Friday he'd support states' rights to impose their own emissions standards rather than abide by a nationwide standard. "Later Friday, a senior campaign aide sought to clarify McCain's position. The aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said McCain supports the ability of states to impose regulations until a national ‘cap and trade’ program to limit carbon emissions, something McCain has proposed, is in place. Once carbon caps are established, the aide said, McCain would oppose state regulations. ‘It makes a lot more sense to regulate carbon at the federal level because you're talking about a federal, a global, problem,’ the aide said."
Popular House conservative Mike Pence believes McCain should name some of his cabinet, not just a VP, in order to get conservatives excited about his candidacy. "I think John McCain would do well to build a team and a ticket that has a wow factor for conservatives," Pence said in an interview. "There's still some angst out there over John McCain's commitment to the conservative agenda."
McCain yesterday took in a Yankees game with Giuliani. New York Daily News with a photo of them in Giuliani's box. No Yankees (or Diamondbacks) cap for McCain. Navy instead. joked around with Conan O'Brien. "O'Brien asked McCain for something else to joke about other than McCain's age. McCain pretended to doze off, and slouched in his chair. 'You just gave a lot of people a scare,' O'Brien said."
OBAMA: Coverage of the overseas trip
VIDEO: Following a bfief stop in Afghanistan, presidential hopeful Barack Obama travels to Iraq to meet with U.S. commanders and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Baghdad. A
London Times reporter recalls meeting Obama in 2006 in Baghdad and just how far he’s come. “There were four visiting Congressmen at the US Embassy in Baghdad, but the one standing closest to me also had a friendly smile. ‘So, which one are you?’ I asked. ‘I’m Barack, pleased to meet you,” said Barack Obama, shaking my hand as I cringed in embarrassment at my obvious ignorance. That was January 7, 2006, when the senator first visited Iraq on a fact-finding mission that attracted minimal publicity and zero fanfare. About five other journalists, all American, also showed up. To my surprise, they were excited about the event, particularly the chance to meet this Mr Obama. ‘He’s going to be the next President of the United States,’ predicted one, while the rest nodded in agreement as we were ushered into a meeting room at the Embassy occupied by a long, wooden table surrounded by large, cushioned chairs.”
Per NBC’s Libby Leist and NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones. Obama's staff, advisers, and 38 members of the press boarded his newly outfitted 757 last night. "Change We Can Believe In" is freshly painted across the side of the plane with BarackObama.com in smaller letters just underneath. If that isn't enough, a giant "O" is emblazoned on the navy-colored tail. The Obama staffers and advisers spotted aboard: Axelrod, Gibbs, Linda Douglass, Reggie Love, Wendy Morigi, Jim Steinberg, and Richard Danzig (although that’s not a complete list).
The AP : Obama got his first look at deteriorating conditions in war-torn Afghanistan yesterday on the first day of a highly anticipated weeklong trip to the Middle East and Europe that drew fresh criticism from his Republican rival, John McCain. met with Hamid Karzai . "Obama pledged steadfast aid to Afghanistan in talks Sunday with its Western-backed leader and vowed to pursue the war on terror "with vigor" if elected, an Afghan official said."
Obama's "campaign already has by far the largest full-time paid staff in presidential campaign history, and unlike Republican rival John McCain's, continues to grow by the day."
The Wall Street Journal looks at Obama finance chair Penny Pritzker’s ties to a failed bank.
On Sunday, the New York Times wrote, “Mr. Obama is likely to announce his choice the week before the Democratic convention begins on Aug. 25, party officials said. Mr. McCain is leaning toward announcing his as soon as the Democratic convention is over, though associates said he had not ruled out making the announcement before the Olympics begin on Aug. 8.”
The Hartford Courant looks at what life's like right now for Joe Lieberman. "Democrats wonder more about what Lieberman might say at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. A Lieberman speech is expected, but not yet scheduled. ‘I'm never going to attack Barack Obama personally, because I respect him. I like him. We're colleagues,’ Lieberman said.
VIDEO: Republican strategist John Feehery and former San Fransisco Mayor Willie Brown talk about who Barack Obama and John McCain could potentially pick as their vice president. “So, there will be no reprise of the angry attack on John Kerry delivered at the GOP convention in 2004 by Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia? ‘I know Zell Miller,’ Lieberman said. ‘He was a friend of mine, but believe me ... ‘ He laughed so hard, he never finished, never delivered the punch line: ‘I'm no Zell Miller.’”
More from NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli… DEMOCRATS: In Boston, Joe Biden “reportedly spoke openly about being on Obama’s short list for VP and also about the possibility of landing a Cabinet post, such as secretary of state, should Obama win.” wowed the Netroots crowd in Austin, and “demurred when asked about being in an Obama administration.”
On Fox News Sunday, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) said of the VP question: “I've said that's not the sort of thing you say no to.” Later he added: “I'm trying my best not to make news on that this morning, so I hope you'll forgive me.” In the latest Zell Miller watch, Joe Lieberman said of worried conservatives: “They shouldn't worry about it too much because it's not going to happen.” He didn’t rule out speaking at the GOP convention.
REPUBLICANS: On “Morning Joe,” Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) said: “We’ve told everybody privately as well as publicly, I’ve got the job that I want, I love being governor. … I’m not going to be the vice president, I’m not going to be the nominee.” He also is touting offshore drilling.
In Florida for a local county GOP fundraiser, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) says: “I don't have any designs on that job, and I'm certainly not campaigning for it. … My expectation is they'll make a decision sometime around the convention and that it will be somebody from outside Washington. I don't expect to get that call."
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger… DEMOCRATS: A Denver Group placed ads in the Chicago Tribune and CQ Daily, asking for Hillary Clinton to be placed in nomination at the convention. An open letter campaign began Saturday and already has more than 300 signatures.
The New York Times Magazine had a lengthy profile of Leah Daughtry, the chief of staff to Howard Dean at the Democratic National Committee and CEO of the Democratic convention. She is a Pentecostal preacher and leading Howard Dean's efforts to embrace religion. movie tickets and bus tokens for the homeless during the convention aren’t intended to hide them. And they have received commitments from the city that homeless people won’t be pushed out. The coalition has requested tickets to the Invesco Field acceptance speech as well.
REPUBLICANS: Nevada Republicans are suing the state party after the convention was cancelled to prevent Ron Paul supporters from being seated at the national convention. will provide hybrid and flex-fuel cars to shuttle officials around at both conventions. having trouble meeting a deadline for 10,000 volunteers. “To make their goal, they turned to pitches from the Democratic mayors of St. Paul and Minneapolis and a public service announcement featuring the Minnesota Vikings Pro Bowl center, Matt Birk, and World Wrestling Entertainment star Mr. Kennedy.”
From NBC's Mark Murray Barack Obama arrived in Kuwait on Sunday and met the Gulf Arab state's emir, the state news agency KUNA reported. Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah met with Obama, who had earlier visited Afghanistan during his overseas tour, the agency said."
"He was expected to fly on to Iraq for meetings on Monday."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
McCain and
Rudy Giuliani attended the Yankees game together today and met with the managers of both the Yankees and Oakland A's on field for a brief photo op prior to the game.
Giuliani also gave a brief interview in which he took a shot at
Obama . "I think if you look at Sen. McCain's record on Iraq -- you don't fail to elect him president. He was right about Iraq when almost everybody else was wrong. It has turned out that if we had caved in the way Barack Obama and the Democrats wanted, we would now have a defeat. America would have a defeat rather than a possible victory. And the fact that Barack Obama is now making his first tour, in essence, of the world is an indication that John McCain is the man with the experience. John doesn't have to go for the first or second time to these places. He has been going there for 20-30 years. He knows the world. He understands the world. Without any disrespect to the other side, he's just so far more experienced that I think America will elect him."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign has seized on Nouri al-Maliki's interview with Der Spiegel as proof that the Iraqi prime minister agrees with Obama's plan to withdraw troops from Iraq, the McCain camp is highlighting Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen's remarks this morning Fox News Sunday.
Per the Washington Post , Mullen argued on the show that withdrawing all US troops from Iraq over the next two years could be "dangerous." "I think the consequences could be very dangerous," [Mullen said]. 'I'm convinced at this point in time that ... making reductions based on conditions on the ground are very important.'"
VIDEO: TODAY's Meredith Vieira talks to presidential hopeful John McCain about Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East, economic policy and the situation in Afghanistan. The McCain campaign quickly fired off this statement: "Barack Obama has said repeatedly that, if elected president, he would summon the Joint Chiefs of Staff and give them a new mission: get all U.S. forces out of Iraq within 16 months, regardless of the conditions on the ground. Today, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mike Mullen, the nation's highest ranking officer, made clear that he believes such an approach could be 'very dangerous.'"
Obama, however, has never said he would ignore the conditions on the ground or the advice of US commanders there. As he wrote in the New York Times on Monday, "As I’ve said many times, we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010... In carrying out this strategy, we would inevitably need to make tactical adjustments. As I have often said, I would consult with commanders on the ground and the Iraqi government to ensure that our troops were redeployed safely, and our interests protected. We would move them from secure areas first and volatile areas later. We would pursue a diplomatic offensive with every nation in the region on behalf of Iraq’s stability, and commit $2 billion to a new international effort to support Iraq’s refugees."
From NBC's Mark Murray Nouri al-Maliki's interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel has set off political shockwaves here in the United States. Here is their conversation...
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses Barack Obama's trip and his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. SPIEGEL: Germany, after World War II, was also liberated from a tyrant by a US-led coalition. That was 63 years ago, and today there are still American military bases and soldiers in Germany. How do you feel about this model?
Maliki: Iraq can learn from Germany's experiences, but the situation is not truly comparable. Back then Germany waged a war that changed the world. Today, we in Iraq want to establish a timeframe for the withdrawal of international troops -- and it should be short. At the same time, we would like to see the establishment of a long-term strategic treaty with the United States, which would govern the basic aspects of our economic and cultural relations. However, I wish to re-emphasize that our security agreement should remain in effect in the short term.
SPIEGEL: How short-term? Are you hoping for a new agreement before the end of the Bush administration?
Maliki: So far the Americans have had trouble agreeing to a concrete timetable for withdrawal, because they feel it would appear tantamount to an admission of defeat. But that isn't the case at all. If we come to an agreement, it is not evidence of a defeat, but of a victory, of a severe blow we have inflicted on al-Qaida and the militias. The American lead negotiators realize this now, and that's why I expect to see an agreement taking shape even before the end of President Bush's term in office. With these negotiations, we will start the whole thing over again, on a clearer, better basis, because the first proposals were unacceptable to us.
Later in the interview...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain economic adviser Phil
Gramm , the latest campaign surrogate to land in hot water, stepped down from his role as co-chair.
"It is clear to me that Democrats want to attack me rather than debate Senator McCain on important economic issues facing the country,” Gramm said in a statement released by the McCain campaign Friday night. “That kind of distraction hurts not only Senator McCain's ability to present concrete programs to deal with the country's problems, it hurts the country. To end this distraction and get on with the real debate, I hereby step down as Co-Chair of the McCain Campaign and join the growing number of rank-and-file McCain supporters."
Democrats, however, jumped on the issue anew Friday. The DNC passed along a
Politico article that reads, in part, “Gramm's move tonight appears to be a move to clarify his status. But when asked whether this meant he'd no longer advise or represent McCain, [spokesman Tucker] Bounds only said that it was Gramm's decision to step down from his co-chair post."
The
Obama campaign, for its part, sent along the following: “The question for John McCain isn’t whether Phil Gramm will continue as chairman of his campaign,” spokesman Hari Sevugan wrote, “but whether he will continue to keep the economic plan that Gramm authored and that represents a continuation of the polices that have failed American families for the last eight years.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Caroline Gransee Obama -- along with Sens. Chuck Hagel (R) and Jack Reed (D) -- ate breakfast with the troops at Camp Eggers in Kabul, Afghanistan this morning. Obama had eggs, bacon, potatoes, and oatmeal for breakfast, mentioning that although the grits "looks good," he chose oatmeal instead because he is "trying to be healthy." Hamid Karzai .
*** UPDATE ***
"We're in Afghanistan because this is the central front in the war on terrorism. Those who actually attacked us on 9/11 reside in the badlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan. They have regrouped and they are getting stronger, as we saw yesterday with attacks throughout Afghanistan that resulted in the deaths of a NATO soldier and several members of the Afghan police.'
"We're talking to our military and diplomatic leadership, and to the leaders of Afghanistan, about whether we have the right strategy and the right resources to defeat the Taliban and al Qaeda, and to support lasting stability. Our message to the Afghan government is this: we want a strong partnership based on "more for more" - more resources from the United States and NATO, and more action from the Afghan government to improve the lives of the Afghan people."
"We need a sense of urgency and determination. We need urgency because the threat from the Taliban and al Qaeda is growing and we must act; we need determination because it will take time to prevail. But with the right strategy and the resources to back it up, we will get the job done."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
Obama’s campaign is not viewing his five-country swing through Europe and the Middle East next week as a political trip, his foreign policy advisers said today on a conference call previewing the much-talked-about tour.
“The trip is not at all a campaign trip, a rally of any sort,” said Robert Gibbs, the campaign's senior strategist for communications and message.
Obama -- who senior foreign policy adviser Denis McDonough said had “a very productive conversation” with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in planning the trip -- will discuss issues ranging from nuclear non-proliferation to energy security to climate change and combating terrorism with a series of leaders in Jordan, Israel, Germany, France, and Great Britain.
VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports on Barack Obama's planned visit to Iraq and Afghanistan. In Europe, the senator is set to meet with British Prime Minister
Gordon Brown and opposition leader
David Cameron ; Germany’s Chancellor
Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier ; and French President
Nicolas Sarkozy ,
the aides confirmed.
In the Middle East, Obama will meet with King Abdullah of Jordan and several Israeli politicians, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert , President Shimon Peres , Defense Minister Ehud Barak , Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni , and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu . He also plans to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Bob Novak is reporting that Phil Gramm apologized to McCain for his "nation of whiners" comment, and that Gramm will continue as an adviser and surrogate to the campaign.
Asked for a response to this news, McCain spokesman Brian Rogers told First Read: "No comment. We have nothing to announce on Sen. Gramm."
Last week, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reported that, per GOP sources, McCain wasn't expected to strip Gramm of his "volunteer designation" as co-chair of the McCain campaign, and that the former Texas senator remains a "trusted friend of the campaign." However, they did say that other surrogates and advisers -- like Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Carly Fiorina -- would be driving the campaign's economic policy.
Last Friday, McCain said that he didn't agree with Gramm's comments to the Washington Times last week that the United States was only in a "mental recession" and had become a "nation of whiners."
"Phil Gramm does not speak for me; I speak for me," McCain said.
And when asked whether Gramm would possibly serve as Treasury secretary in a McCain Administration, the presumptive GOP nominee replied, "I think Sen. Gramm would be in serious consideration for ambassador to Belarus, although I'm not sure that citizens of Minsk would welcome to that."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
"Positions that helped him win his nomination,” an announcer says. “Now Obama is changing to help himself become president. John McCain has always supported our troops and the surge that's working. McCain. Country first.”
McCain has had negative Web videos of Obama, but nothing on paid television.
The new ad is being cycled into the campaign's buy on national cable and CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA (NoVA) and WI.
McCain's ad, "Love ," had several veiled shots at the presumptive Democratic nominee, but the focus was on McCain's biography -- not Obama.
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
President Bush and
McCain are playing catch-up with
Obama when it comes to Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama advisers said on a conference call today.
The aides were responding to news that Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki had agreed that any new agreement regarding US-Iraqi relations after the UN mandate expires at year-end should include “a general time horizon" for withdrawing American troops from the country.
Senior foreign policy adviser Susan Rice said the presumptive Democratic nominee had been a leader on issues regarding Iraq and Afghanistan -- having long-called for a strategic redeployment of US troops from the former, and for increased efforts to deal with the national security threats presented by the latter.
VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama hopes to bolster his foreign-policy credentials in a five nation trip to the Middle East and Europe. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Baghdad. “[Obama] has made the prescient point that we ought to put more US brigades into Afghanistan to step up our effort there; that we ought not to put all of our military eggs and political eggs in Pervez Musharraf’s basket; and that our Pakistan and Afghanistan policies need to be adjusted,” Rice said. “We are now seeing Sen. McCain come gradually and belatedly around to that position. And today, we see the further evidence -- not only from the Iraqis, who have asked for a timetable for US withdrawal -- but from the administration, acknowledging that indeed a time horizon is desirable and necessary and is moving in that direction.”
She argued that McCain was trying to raise questions about the Illinois senator’s judgment on issues of foreign policy “to deflect attention from the fact that despite his claims to be the expert on national security, when it comes to critical issues he and President Bush are following Barack Obama’s lead.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
WARREN, Mich. --
McCain took questions from auto employees at the GM Technology Center here this morning and gave them some of his patented "straight talk" on the future of their industry.
After telling the audience in his opening remarks that "there'll be times when you and I disagree on issues and one of them probably is trade," McCain quickly stumbled on another point of contention between his position and theirs -- the right of states to set their own fuel standards.
VIDEO: Defending free trade, John McCain says, "Lowering barriers to trade creates more and better jobs and higher wages." This has been a controversial issue of late, most notably between the Bush administration and the auto companies on one side and the California legislature on the other in the western state's attempt to set stricter carbon emission standards than those currently in place nationwide.
"I'm torn on the issue because I am at heart a federalist that believes that the states should make decisions as to what happens within their states," McCain said. He then added, "but it also is complicated because every state doesn't manufacture automobiles and they don't stay within their states. …So I have to say I guess at the end of the day I support the states being able to do that, but I also think there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to sit down and work this out."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Jim Popkin Obama schlock is outselling John McCain schlock at least five to one, according to interviews NBC News conducted with gift-shop retailers and t-shirt manufacturers.
That would mean that five times as many Obama t-shirts are on the streets…five times as many Obama bumper stickers are junking up cars…and five times as many Obama bobble heads are wiggling on desks across America.
At the Capital Noveltees manufacturing plant in Washington, DC, for example, demand for Obama gift items is through the roof. The firm, a major supplier to retailers nationwide, has sold 54,028 pro-Obama t-shirts since March. During that same period, the company has sold only 5,979 pro-McCain t-shirts, said company owner Susan Benovitz.
"It's not that we're favoring one candidate over another," Benovitz said. "I just know how fast the re-orders come in for Obama."
Is this a sign of an enthusiasm gap, as perhaps the Obama campaign would have you believe? Not so fast, says Ira Teinowitz, the Washington Bureau Chief for Advertising Age. Since Obama is so popular with Gen Facebook, young voters likely skew the sales. “It’s logical to assume that young people are more likely to wear T-shirts than old [folks],” Teinowitz said. “If you look at the cool versus non-cool aspect of this, McCain isn’t exactly cool” to wear on a faded t-shirt, he added.
The McCain campaign reacted to the "doomsday" news with characteristic humor. Is this gift-buying discrepancy an omen of a campaign in trouble, we queried in an email?
"Al Gore and John Kerry sold a lot of t-shirts too," McCain spokesman Joe Pounder replied.
For more on this -- and actual serious topics -- check out the NBC News Deep Background blog.
You can't make this up... NBC's John Yang reports President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have agreed that a new agreement setting the parameters for US-Iraqi relations after the current UN mandate expires at the end of the year should include non-binding language--"a general time horizon" and not "an arbitrary date"--about the withdrawal of US troops.
*** UPDATE *** Biden is out with this statement: “I welcome today’s announcement that the President has reversed course and dropped his adamant opposition to a timeline for redeployment of American troops from Iraq. He also has acknowledged the need to transition from a combat mission to one that focuses on training and counter-terrorism. The Bush Administration is finally facing reality. They are now engaging directly with Iran and recognizing the need for more forces in Afghanistan while scaling down our force commitment in Iraq. The President should begin a responsible redeployment of our combat forces from Iraq so that we can meet the many other challenges we face around the world, starting with taking the fight to Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan – the people who actually attacked us on 9-11.”
*** UPDATE 2 ***
"The President's effort to distinguish between a 'time horizon' and a 'time table' to accomplish that goal falls flat."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro McCain’s opportunity: So how will McCain spend Obama’s summer “vacation,” as the Democratic candidate heads abroad? Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, McCain’s advisers say they won't "litigate" all the "campaign hoopla" generated by Obama's foreign travel, but acknowledge they may have to "fight for scraps that fall off the table" when it comes to media coverage and public attention. Looking for the positive, they will try to "mop the floor" with being the "only candidate in the country." These advisers add that McCain will "drive the message" of jobs, the economy, energy, and domestic issues, highlighting contrasts with his Democratic opponent. And he’ll start that today when he holds a town hall at a GM facility in Warren, MI. Much attention in that recent Washington/ABC poll was given to Obama’s deficit on foreign affairs issues when compared with McCain. But the survey also showed McCain trailing Obama on the economy by a whopping 19 points. What’s easier -- Obama erasing his foreign affairs deficit or McCain erasing his economic one? Indeed, this next week might be as important to McCain as it is for Obama.
VIDEO: Will Barack Obama be able to sell himself as a credible commander-in-chief with his trip abroad or might he commit an embarrassing gaffe that could undermine his candidacy? A Hardball panel discusses. ***
That Berlin event: How vulnerable is Obama on this idea that he's campaigning overseas? Will the Berlin event backfire? Will some be offended by the idea of holding a campaign rally in a foreign country? Then again, one of the objectives for this overseas trip -- besides boosting Obama’s commander-in-chief credentials -- is to drive home the argument to American voters how the rest of the world wants the US to embark on a different course (and contending that McCain can’t deliver on that promise). As one of
Obama’s new TV ads puts it, “We are a beacon of light around the world. At least that's what we can be again. That's what we should be again.” There really isn't a precedent for actually holding a campaign event overseas. How does Obama walk this fine line of appealing to the rest of the world without turning off American voters and appearing that he’s already won the election?
*** This gym stuff: We're a bit suspicious. Anyone else think Obama is holding some secret VP meetings? With Obama on his way out of Chicago and some Obama beat reporters not going overseas, maybe we ought to find out if Caroline Kennedy, Eric Holder, Joe Biden, or Evan Bayh happens to like going to Chicago gyms... If Obama plans to name his running mate before the Olympics, he's probably got to be close to a decision, because he'd have to name the running mate in the week he returns from his overseas trip. Time's running out for Team Obama if they want a big pre-Olympics VP rollout. So maybe he's a lot closer than we all realize, and maybe these gym stops are well, you know… Then again, perhaps he just loves shootin' hoops.
*** Speaking of…: Here’s some research on VP timing from NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli… From 1980-2004, the vice presidential pick was announced typically within one week of the start date of the convention. The exceptions are:
*** Meet Joe Biden: Next up in our look at potential veep picks is Joe Biden. He’s Delaware's longest-serving senator, winning his Senate seat at age 29. Five weeks later, his wife and infant daughter were killed in a car accident. Biden later re-married… Biden ran for president in 1988, but bowed out after a plagiarism scandal. That same year, he suffered a brain aneurysm…. He commutes an hour and a half to DC every day from Wilmington on Amtrak; in fact, he’s gotten to know the train's crew personally and hosts an annual Christmas dinner for them… In addition to his presidential campaign calling Obama a "Johnny-Come-Lately " on Afghanistan in 2007, Biden also has said Obama is not ready to be president. At a debate in August of last year, he stood by a Newsweek quote in which he said, "I think he can be ready, but right now I don't believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training." Biden's response at the debate? "I think I stand by the statement."
*** Dodge, dip, duck, dive, dodge: On Morning Joe, Pawlenty dodged the question whether he’s being vetted. He's consistently denied being vetted in the past.
*** On the trail: McCain begins his day with a town hall at a GM facility in Warren, MI, raises money in Detroit, and then appears on Late Night with Conan O'Brien. Cindy McCain is in Rwanda on the bipartisan ONE campaign trip.
Countdown to Dem convention: 38 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails.
With Obama headed abroad, the New York Times writes that “Republicans seem unable to decide whether that is worthy of praise or an opportunity for payback for Mr. Obama’s unrelenting criticism of their own policy. ‘I’m pleased that he is going to Iraq for only the second time and Afghanistan for the first time,’ Mr. McCain, who last visited the region in March, told reporters aboard his campaign bus on Thursday in Kansas City, Mo. ‘If he was so concerned about Afghanistan and the threat there and the need to send troops, don’t you think he should have gone there?’”
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel talks about John McCain camp's tactics in attacking Barack Obama's overseas trip. But: “Earlier in the day, Mr. McCain’s communications director, Jill Hazelbaker, had dismissed Mr. Obama’s trip as the ‘first-of-its-kind campaign rally overseas.’ But Mr. McCain initially rejected that ‘damned if you do, damned it you don’t’ approach and sought a more nuanced position. ‘I can only give you my opinion, and I will talk to her,’ Mr. McCain said. ‘The fact is that I’m glad he is going to Iraq. I am glad he is going to Afghanistan. It’s long, long overdue if you want to lead this nation.’”
“Later on Thursday, in Grand Haven, Mr. McCain elaborated on his and Ms. Hazelbaker’s initial remarks. He differentiated the Iraq and Afghanistan parts of the trip from its other legs, saying Mr. Obama’s activities in the other countries could have ‘a political flavor, to say the least.’”
More on Obama’s trip … “‘The stakes are very high for Obama,’ said Lee Hamilton, president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a supporter of the Illinois Democrat. While Obama currently leads in the polls, ‘foreign policy is one area where they (voters) have their doubts’ about him, Hamilton said. The trip is planned to put Obama into settings often occupied by presidents, including formal meetings with foreign leaders, public speeches and visits to historical sites. ‘There will be a lot of eyes on him, and we know that,’ [Obama’s Chief Strategist David] Axelrod said, when asked about the risk of politically damaging errors.”
CONTINUED >>
The DNC is releasing a memo arguing that McCain had a tough week , after his reversals on Afghanistan and gay adoption, as well as him incorrectly referring twice to “Czechoslovakia,” a nation that no longer exists. “Two weeks into the latest ‘relaunch’ of his campaign and it’s more of the same for John McCain: more of the same bad news, bad reviews and campaign chaos,” the memo reads. “While the elevation of Steve Schmidt was supposed to tighten McCain’s message and organization, McCain was under fire from all sides this week… With less than 110 days left until the election, is it time to start wondering how many more weeks like this McCain can afford?”
“McCain said Thursday that his proposal to suspend the gas tax for three months this summer may need to be extended longer if high gas prices continue to take a toll on the economy. ‘I think we ought to seriously look at whether we need to have it be longer or not depending on what the economy (does),’ McCain said, standing beside the Grand River. ‘I think we have to consider all options but the fact is we need a gas tax holiday. We need it, we need it, we need it very badly. The Americans that are hurt the most are low income Americans that are driving the oldest automobiles.’” never said how he would replace the million that go from the gas tax to the roads infrastructure improvements, saying only it would come out of the general fund.
Per a new Pew analysis, McCain “has a smaller lead among white evangelical Protestants than Republican George W. Bush had at a similar point in the 2004 campaign, even though Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has made few inroads into this key constituency… About six-in-ten (61%) white evangelicals favor McCain while 25% support Obama. McCain's 36-point advantage among this group is comparable to Bush's lead in 2000 but smaller than Bush's 43-point lead in 2004. Nonetheless, Obama has made no significant gains among this important constituency. The number of white evangelicals who say they would vote for Obama (25%) is about the same as the number who supported the Democratic presidential candidates in June 2004 (26%) and June 2000 (28%).”
Wow, how nervous are McCain folks about Ron Paul disruptions at the Nevada GOP state convention? They've cancelled the convo and will deal with the delegate issue via conference call.
This is a bit different from the movie about those Spartan warriors… The New York Times writes about the 300 folks advising Obama on foreign affairs. (What does it say about Obama's experience that he has 300 advisers in this area?) “‘It is unwieldy, no question,’ said Denis McDonough, 38, Mr. Obama’s top foreign policy aide, speaking of an infrastructure that has been divided into 20 teams based on regions and issues, and that has recently absorbed, with some tensions, the top foreign policy advisers from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign. ‘But an administration is unwieldy, too. We also know that it’s messier when you don’t get as much information as you can.’”
VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with Barack Obama's senior foreign policy advisor Greg Craig about the Democratic presidential candidate's stance on Iraq. “The group is on the spot this week as Mr. Obama is planning to make his first overseas foray as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, with voters at home and leaders abroad watching closely to see how he handles himself on the global stage."
There’s plenty of coverage of Obama’s $52 million haul for June. The New York Times : “Although the $52 million came close to reaching the record that Mr. Obama set in February by raising $55 million, the figure is on pace with, or slightly below, projections that campaign aides have set for party fund-raisers. Democrats said they hope to raise about $300 million for the campaign, in addition to about $180 million for the national committee.”
The Washington Post : “Obama's campaign would not say how much of his total was raised from small donors who gave online, and official reports are not due to be filed until Sunday. But an examination of his campaign schedule -- which has been packed with high-dollar fundraising events -- would suggest that he relied less on Internet donors than he did in February, when he took in $55.4 million.”
CONTINUED >>
FLORIDA: Obama's half-sister campaigned for her brother in Florida yesterday. "Maya Soetoro-Ng stumped for her brother in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, headlining a ‘Women for Obama’ event in Tampa on Thursday. She was scheduled to meet with educators in Largo today."
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Former Pennsylvania Gov. and Homeland Security czar Tom Ridge “helped announce the formation of New Hampshire Veterans for McCain. … On Saturday, McCain's New Hampshire campaign plans what it calls ‘Super Saturday’ -- an eight-hour effort of phone banks and door knocks run out of its offices in Manchester, Nashua, and Stratham. McCain, himself, is scheduled to hold a town meeting in Rochester on Tuesday.”
NEW JERSEY: A Strategic Vision (R) poll in NJ has Obama up, but by just nine points, 47%-38%.
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli… DEMOCRATS: Wes Clark appeared at the "Netroots Nation" bloggers convo in Austin. And he blamed the “right wing freak machine” for blowing up his McCain comment. Politico looks at the plausibility of Hagel on a Dem ticket or Joe Lieberman on the GOP one, saying either selection could “thrust the respective party conventions into turmoil. “According to liberal activists, Hagel would be an insult to the causes that have defined their lives, from abortion rights to the role of government in public life.” And “Lieberman’s domestic liberalism is simply unpalatable to many on the right.” Gore is ruling out any chance he’d be VP again, saying he has imposed a personal two-term limit -- even, if as Katie Couric asked, Obama said he “really, really, really” needed him.
VIDEO: TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney about the race to the White House and why he thinks John McCain is the right candidate for the job.
REPUBLICANS: Mitt Romney continued to play attack dog on TODAY. “Sweet talk is going to give the way to straight talk… When I was running in the primary I thought I was the right guy to run against Barack Obama . But when it comes to a comparison between John McCain and Barack Obama, I know who I think America should choose.” Asked about if he’s had “open and frank discussions” with McCain over VP, Romney said: “No, I sure haven’t. And I’m not gonna get into the process that he’s going through.”Palin says she’s not giving up hope that McCain will reverse his position on drilling there. Crist’s honeymoon appears well over. “Prince Charlie: Out of town, out of touch” is the headline to this photo of him with Prince Charles in London, “beaming” while economists “were wailing about the latest signs of Florida's deteriorating condition.” Sanford’s (R-SC) appointee to a state education commission appears on a Web site of an organization dedicated to ending public education.
In his latest National Journal column, Charlie Cook breaks down the Senate contests and notes that the situation for the GOP looks bleak. "In the presidential race, ... McCain is behind but still very competitive. For the GOP, that is the bright spot on the horizon. In the House and Senate contests, the debate is about how many seats the Republicans will lose; they no longer have a realistic chance of holding their own."
"Jennifer Duffy, The Cook Political Report's Senate editor, says the bottom line is that Democrats are poised to pick up five to seven seats. Holding that pickup to four would be a moral victory for Republicans. The possibility that Democrats will net eight or nine seats remains unlikely, but it isn't as laughable a scenario as it was six months ago."
DEMOCRATS: The Obama campaign
has not released how tickets to the Invesco Field speech will be distributed. But Colorado Democratic Party Chair Pat Waak says she’s already received requests from 9,000 people, from as far as Virginia.
An
unscientific poll of the homeless suggest they aren’t going to be leaving during the convention “unless they are giving away free booze and marijuana at the movies.”
There’s a
sizeable gap in Bruce Springsteen’s tour plans this summer -- just large enough to suggest the Boss may show up in Denver.
Melissa Ethridge, Cyndi Lauper, and Rufus Wainwright are expected at “
Rock to Win ,” a concert sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign on Aug. 26 at Filmore Auditorium.
REPUBLICANS: When thinking about the timing of McCain’s veep announcement,
there’s a wrinkle to keep in mind . McCain turns 72 on the Aug. 29, the day after the Democratic soiree ends. While some have suggested it could be a good day for McCain to announce his vice presidential pick and steal momentum from Obama, the Rothenberg Political Report notes “the senator's birthday and age will be a prominent media story. And it will be contrasted even further with the age of his running mate.”
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
will host a reception at the Graves Hotel in Minneapolis on Sept. 2, along with other banking and real estate groups. “The title of the reception is ‘Building Stable Communities for America's Future,’ and invitations went to some of the most outspoken opponents of the administration's plan to temporarily extend credit to Fannie and Freddie and potentially purchase an equity stake in the two private companies.”
From NBC's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum McCain spoke about Obama’s upcoming trip to Iraq and Afghanistan. “I know that Sen. Obama is going to Iraq. I was very interested that he articulated and announced his polices and approach to Iraq before he went, not after. Remarkable. I’ve been on a lot of trips around the world -- usually at your expense -- but I usually issue my policy statements when I get back," he said.
"I hope he’ll sit down with General Petraeus and General Odierno, who’s taking General Petraeus’ place very soon," McCain added. "That -- and that he will understand what’s at stake here, and what happens in Iraq affects what happens in Afghanistan. Yes, we need more troops in Afghanistan. But if we’d have failed in Iraq, my friends, the consequences would have spread throughout the region because the United States would have lost and then left in retreat."
In an additional rebuttal to Obama's trip, the McCain campaign released a video -- entitled "The Obama Iraq Documentary: Whatever the Politics Demand" -- which accuses Obama of shifting positions based on Iraq. The eight-minute piece includes 22 video clips of Obama speaking about various aspects of the war in Iraq, including the surge, withdrawal and troop funding.
Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan replied to the video, “All John McCain has ever looked for in Iraq are reasons to stay there indefinitely. He has stubbornly championed a strategy of fighting an unnecessary war in Iraq regardless of the shifting facts offered to justify it, regardless of the levels of violence and political progress in the country, and regardless of the gathering strength of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan."
"And now," Sevugan continued, "as he advocates a policy of staying in Iraq indefinitely, it is clear that he is going to continue to adhere to George Bush’s ideological agenda even as every other critical national security challenge is neglected, and our troops continue to fight tour after tour of duty and our taxpayers spend $10 billion a month in Iraq,” said Obama campaign spokesman Hari Sevugan.
From NBC's Christina Jamison President Clinton today announced an agreement his foundation negotiated to cut the cost of malaria drugs in Africa. He then took a few questions after the event.
Question: Do you want to speak at the convention? Clinton laughed, answering: "I've given no thought to it one way or the other."
When will you campaign with Obama ? "Whenever he asks... We had a good talk... He's busier than I am on politics anyway."
Regarding the Jesse Jackson flap, Clinton agreed with his apology, saying: "If we all lived on live mics, we'd all be embarrassed 100% of the time."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Biden is defending Obama over the Illinois senator's lack of subcommittee hearings on the issue of Afghanistan, opponents of Obama's candidacy have reminded us of some unflattering things the then-Biden campaign said on this topic.
On Aug. 1, 2007, when Obama unveiled his counterterrorism agenda, the Biden camp fired off a snarky email congratulating him for his "Johnny-come-lately position" on Afghanistan, noting that during two Foreign Relations Committee hearings on Afghanistan and other subjects, Obama didn't ask questions about the Taliban, Al Qaeda, or Afghanistan. (We also wrote on it here .)
“We find it a little disingenuous that Sen. Obama is hailing this as a new bold initiative when he has neglected to join his colleagues in the Senate when the opportunities have been there to redirect our forces into Afghanistan” Biden campaign manager Luis Navarro said at the time. “It’s good to see Sen. Obama has finally arrived at the right position, but this can hardly be considered bold leadership.” Ouch.
Biden's office passed along this response: "I doubt many people would be surprised to find out that Senator Biden and Obama ran against each other last year," Biden spokeswoman Elizabeth Alexander wrote First Read. "Unlike Senator McCain , Senator Obama understands that the responsibility of the next president goes beyond being commander-in-chief for Iraq -- he has to be commander-in-chief for America's security in the world. That's why he supports re-centering our foreign policy and beginning a responsible redeployment of American combat forces from Iraq."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira Rangel today, as he came before cameras to defend himself against charges that he has used his position to get a sweetheart deal on a rent controlled apartment(s) in New York and to benefit the center named after him at CCNY.
VIDEO: Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., calls for an ethics investigation on himself. MSNBC's Mike Viqueira reports. "Nobody that can read is going to bring any charges against me," Rangel declared. So confident is Rangel of his innocence, he says, that he will seek to file a complaint against himself with the ethics committee if no one else will. By turns he attacked the Washington Post reporter, seated in the front row, who wrote the CCNY story ("G-d d---, I really think you're being annoying now"); challenged the newspaper to keep reporting the story ("I'm going to see how much damn ink the Washington Post has"); averred that there was nothing wrong with writing letters to potential Rangel Center donors on congressional stationary, letters asking them to come to a meeting to in order to "discuss my vision" for the Center ("I consider it official business"); and said that he is unaware of any conflict of interest that would result from sending the letters to the heads of philanthropic foundations who might potentially have business before the Ways and Means Committee, which he chairs ("Carnegie is dead," he noted of the 19th century industrial baron.
"Trump hasn't given a damn nickel". He also said that he "leaned on GE" to "help us out in the city of New York").
Rangel repeatedly came after the reporter, asking him to have the Post itself file the ethics complaint, which is a ridiculous notion as most folks around here are aware of the fact that only a member can file a complaint with the committee.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama heads on his trip to the Middle East and Europe, the McCain campaign is trying to pre-but his travel. McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann has fired off a memo to reporters arguing that Obama is putting politics before country, suggesting that he wants to "lose" the war, even comparing him to Donald Rumsfeld.
VIDEO: In a conference call on Wednesday, the McCain foreign policy advisory Randy Scheunemann said the American people can't afford to replace on administration that refused to acknowledge failure in Iraq with a "candidate that refused to acknowledge success in Iraq." Newsweek's Richard Wolffe talks about these claims. Excerpts: "When it wasn't popular, John McCain said he would rather win a war that we were losing than win an election. Politics came second; country came first. Barack Obama has determined that he would rather lose a war that we are winning than lose an election by alienating his base. This is the reason Obama did not have to wait until his trip to declare his strategy. Iraq is fundamentally a political decision for Barack Obama, not a national security decision."
And: "The American people deserve a commander-in-chief who puts their country first ahead of party, politics and self-interest. Time after time, that is what John McCain has done and what Barack Obama has failed to do. We cannot afford to replace a Rumsfeld strategy that refused for too long to acknowledge failure in Iraq with an Obama strategy that refuses to acknowledge success in Iraq."
In addition, the McCain camp has rounded up GOP Sens. Richard Burr , Jon Kyl and John Thune , as well as Reps. Marsha Blackburn and Eric Cantor to unveil a video later this morning entitled "The Obama Iraq Documentary: Whatever the Politics Demand."
From NBC's Mark Murray Remember that letter that South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R) sent to Obama -- over the fact that the Foreign Relations subcommittee that Obama chairs hasn't held a hearing on the issue of Afghanistan?
VIDEO: Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., shares his view that Barack Obama's idea about national security has been right all along: Focus on Afghanistan. Well, Foreign Relations Committee chairman
Joe Biden -- a possible Obama veep pick -- responds to DeMint with his own letter. "As you are aware, under my chairmanship the Foreign Relations Committee has addressed most Afghanistan issues at the full committee level. I believe that this is the best way of ensuring the most comprehensive examination of the complex issues involved, and of ensuring the highest-level Administration participation," he writes.
"On the particular issue of NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, we have held three full committee hearings in the last 22 months... At all three of these hearings, we were fortunate enough to have the expert testimony ... of former NATO commander and Supreme Allied Commander-Europe, Gen. James R. Jones (USMC, ret.). At my request, Sen. Obama chaired the confirmation hearing for our next ambassador to NATO, which he focused on NATO’s mission in Afghanistan."
Biden concludes, "Sen. Obama has displayed great leadership on this issue: he called nearly a year ago for the deployment of at least two additional combat brigades to Afghanistan -- it has since become the accepted position of a wide range of U.S. military officials, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I look forward to working closely with him, and with you, on any future Afghanistan hearings that might be held in our committee."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro The double-edged sword: With the news that the network anchors, including NBC’s Brian Williams, are planning to catch up with Obama on his overseas trip -- when they didn’t do the same for McCain when he traveled abroad -- the New York Times today raises this conversation starter: that the “news media are imbalanced in their coverage of the candidates.” There is no doubt that Obama, because of his historical candidacy as well as being the “new” candidate, is receiving more attention. But that presents both rewards and risks. Consider: Just how big of a gaffe would have McCain’s Sunni-Shiite mistake been had the network anchors all been there to cover it? The extra attention Obama receives also brings more scrutiny. And that's why his trip overseas presents both rewards and risks. And this is the lemons-vs.-lemonade debate the McCain campaign must be having. First, they need to figure out how to bracket this trip and keep pressure on Obama and the reporters covering him there. The time difference will present a challenge, as most of the news Obama makes will be during our broadcasts downtimes. Second, they may need to rethink how they are presenting McCain and the opportunities they are offering the media to cover him in unique and different settings. The irony to the extra coverage this trip is getting for Obama is that the RNC themselves helped hype this trip with their countdown clock on the number of days it's been since Obama last went to Iraq.
VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama is heading on a five-country European and Middle East tour. NBC's chief White House correspondent, David Gregory, reports. ***
On target: As the political world anticipates Obama’s upcoming overseas trip, his campaign this morning released a shiny object for us to discuss: his June fundraising numbers. In an email to supporters, campaign manager David Plouffe announced that Obama raised $52 million last month -- which is his second-best haul (he raised more than $55 million in February) and it’s more than twice the amount of McCain’s $22 million haul for June (which was his best month). While Obama raised much more than the $30 million-plus that the Wall Street Journal reported last week, Obama’s $52 million is about what he should have raised for a candidate who is opting out of public funds for the general. Assuming that Obama rakes in at least $50 million each month from June until the end of October, that will be a minimum of $250 million. And when making the time calculation it takes to raise money, the ability to raise $250 million in five months was seen by many as the minimum a candidate would have to be able to raise to justify opting out and dismantling a finance team. By comparison, if you project that McCain will raise $20 million per month from June to August and combine that with the $84 million in public funds he’ll receive after the GOP convention, McCain will have $140 million-plus. Of course, the RNC has a significant advantage over the DNC -- but that race is narrowing. A DNC officials tells First Read it raised $22.4 million in June (up from its $4 million in May), and it’s cash on hand is $20 million (again, up from $4 million in May). By comparison, the RNC raised $25.7 in June and has $68.7 million cash on hand.
*** More numbers: A couple of more notes on Obama’s June haul: All but $2 million was in primary money. Also, contrary to the email that Plouffe issued, the Obama campaign tells us that they have $72 million cash on hand. When you combine that with the DNC’ $20 million, that’s $92 million cash on hand -- which is almost equal to combined McCain-RNC cash on hand of nearly $95 million. Still, McCain really doesn’t have a money problem. In fact, as Rick Davis bragged last week, money isn't going to be the issue many thought it would be just two months ago. Why is this? It appears many Republican donors are buying into the argument that the ONLY shot Republicans have of winning anything is the presidency. And this is hurting Republicans running for the House and Senate where Democrats are dominating on the financial front. Yesterday, the DSCC released a list of 11 races being held in GOP-held seats, and the Democrats were nearly on par or ahead in every race, according to the most recent fundraising report. Question: Are we seeing the reverse '96 effect taking place inside the GOP? In 1996, the word went out that Dole was a lost cause, and all of the GOP's resources went to saving House and Senate candidates in order to preserve their control of Congress. This cycle, the chance of the GOP winning control of either the House or the Senate appears beyond remote. Does that mean many of the professional GOP-givers are gravitating toward sending money to causes that help McCain? It sure looks like it.
*** Going overboard? Do we go overboard on the veepstakes vetting issue? Riddle us this: Would either Obama or McCain vet on the standard the media and the chattering class is holding? Would Obama have the experience or pull in any swing states? Would McCain be considered enough of a change agent? What state would he swing? Our point is that if both candidates think about this VP thing long enough, they'll realize that they got their nominations without all the things they are being told they need... Doesn't that mean it's likely they’ll pick running mates with whom they bond more than they will via some electoral idea? Discuss!
VIDEO: MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski talks with Mitt Romney about the presidential campaign. ***
Meet Mitt Romney: Speaking of veepstakes, over the next few weeks, First Read will run a series -- in no particular order -- of some things you might not know about the potential VP candidates. Today, we start on the Republican side with Mitt Romney. Most know his father was governor Michigan and ran for president in 1968, but Romney's mother, Lenore, also ran for office. She lost her bid for U.S. Senate in 1970… Romney received a draft deferment while serving as a Mormon missionary in France during the Vietnam War… When in France, he was declared dead after a near-fatal car accident… And don’t forget this: Right before the New Hampshire primary, Romney cast doubt on McCain's ability to match up with the Hope-and-Change machine, as
ABC reported yesterday. "I frankly don't think that Senator McCain, despite his service and his length of experience, that that's going to be able to stand up to the message that Barack Obama has brought forward," he said. "I think Barack Obama would be able to do to John McCain exactly what he was able to do to the other senators who are running on the Democratic side."
*** Mr. Ozone comes to Washington: Al Gore delivers a speech on global warming that the AP’s Fournier previews after speaking with the former vice president. "Just as John F. Kennedy set his sights on the moon, Al Gore is challenging the nation to produce every kilowatt of electricity through wind, sun and other Earth-friendly energy sources within 10 years, an audacious goal he hopes the next president will embrace. The Nobel Prize-winning former vice president said fellow Democrat Barack Obama and Republican rival John McCain are ‘way ahead’ of most politicians in the fight against global climate change. Rising fuel costs, climate change and the national security threats posed by U.S. dependence on foreign oil are conspiring to create ‘a new political environment’ that Gore said will sustain bold and expensive steps to wean the nation off fossil fuels.” The real trick for Gore this time around in selling his campaign on climate change is how you pitch this public policy at a time when voters simply want their cost of living to go down and the biggest hit on cost of living these days is the price of gas. On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Kansas City, MO before heading to a fundraiser in Ferrysburg, MI. Obama is scheduled to be in Chicago.
*** Spouse watch: Michelle Obama hits a fundraiser in Seattle for Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire (D), who’s up for re-election in November. And Cindy McCain is on the bipartisan ONE Campaign trip to Africa.
*** Bill Clinton watch: The former president, in New York, appears at a Clinton Foundation announcement with leading drug manufacturers.
Countdown to Dem convention: 39 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails.
The Washington Post notes how both campaigns have uncomfortable ties to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. "When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's stock prices plunged and rumors of their insolvency swirled, the presidential campaigns of Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama released terse statements about the mortgage giants, then went nearly silent. Their responses made sense in political and economic terms. The risks of intervening in the firms' rescue are high, the rewards are scant, and the tentacles of the government-sponsored enterprises reach into both campaigns."
VIDEO: CNBC's Jim Cramer stops by "Morning Joe" to discuss the state of the economy, the mortgage industry and the health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More: "Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, was president of the Homeownership Alliance, which advocates the expansion of homeownership through low-interest mortgages funded by Fannie and Freddie. Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr., who is heading McCain's vice presidential vetting panel, was a lobbyist for Fannie Mae. Mark Buse, a longtime McCain aide, lobbied for Freddie Mac before returning to McCain's Senate staff."
Moreover: "Obama also has ties to the firms. James A. Johnson, the former head of his vice presidential vetting panel, was a chief executive of Fannie Mae, as was Franklin D. Raines, who said this week that he has been consulting with the campaign on housing issues. Maria Echaveste, a top Clinton White House official whose husband, Christopher Edley Jr., is a close Obama friend and adviser, has lobbied for Freddie Mac, and former commerce secretary William M. Daley, a top Obama backer, was an in-house lobbyist."
The AP : “Inflation has rarely been mentioned in the presidential contest, but that seems likely to change soon. The government reported Wednesday that consumer prices rose in June at the second fastest pace in 26 years. Bank failures suddenly are front-page news as well. The FBI is looking into possible fraud related to home loans made by IndyMac Bancorp Inc., which was taken over Friday by the FDIC… McCain and Obama undoubtedly will return to these issues and offer new proposals, but perhaps the voters' chief question should be: Can they really help?”
The New York Times takes a look at how both campaigns are targeting this key constituency group. "In the past, a common complaint among Hispanic voters has been that politicians tend to view them as a one-issue bloc, concerned only about immigration. Both presidential campaigns are taking care to avoid that trap, emphasizing issues like education, health care and housing as much as, if not more than, immigration and related border issues. They also clearly recognize the role that the Hispanic electorate, its numbers swelling with newly naturalized citizens and a population that skews young, could play in November."
The AP takes a look at Obama's goal of raising black turnout by 30% and how that could flip some states in the South. "Obama set the 30% goal himself last August at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. ‘I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30% around the country, minimum,’ he said. ‘Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30%. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ.’”
VIDEO: MSNBC's Contessa Brewer talks with Barack Obama supporter, New York Gov. David Paterson about getting a big voter turnout in the South. “The math backs up his analysis -- if he can deliver the turnout he promises. In Georgia, the GOP presidential nominee's average margin of victory in the past four elections was 216,000 votes. If 30% more voting-age blacks go to the polls in November than the four-year average -- with all else equal, and Obama capturing all of those votes -- he would win the state by 84,000 ballots. Should 90% of those voters go for Obama, a figure he achieved among blacks in some primaries this year, he would still have enough to win the state and its 15 electoral votes.
If Obama reached his goal of a 30% increase and brought all those new black voters into his fold, he could also win in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Virginia and Florida. Wins in the six states would give him 81 new electoral votes -- enough to beat Arizona Sen. John McCain even if the Republican won almost every other toss-up state in the nation, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Ohio. A 30% boost in black turnout also could pull Obama into a tie with McCain in Mississippi. And in South Carolina, a conservative state that went to President Bush by 17 percentage points four years ago, Obama could come within 17,000 votes -- less than a percentage point. Ditto in North Carolina, a state often mentioned as a possible Southern pickup for Obama."
“A 12% increase could flip Virginia and Florida and perhaps one other states, according to author and Dem analyst Tom Schaller.”
The candidate received some very good reviews for his NAACP speech. The Los Angeles Times : "He did not draw the crowd that greeted his Democratic opponent here Monday, where, as one organization official put it, ‘even the overflow room had an overflow room,’ but McCain received a respectful reception for his speech on education reform." More: "To the surprise and delight of those in the convention hall, McCain took questions, which ranged from judicial appointments to faith-based initiatives. His liveliest exchange was with a woman who identified herself as a Head Start employee who earns $17,000 a year."
VIDEO: Republican presidential nominee John McCain praised Barack Obama's groundbreaking presidential run, while laying out his plans for public education, the economy and civil rights to members of the NAACP. Are we
starting to see a pattern inside the GOP where donors are now giving more money to McCain's cause (either directly to him or via a party committee) than to campaigns running for the House and Senate -- since McCain has the better shot at winning than the party does at getting control of either house of Congress?
McCain was in Omaha yesterday raising money. And gave an interview to the AP in which he said there'd be room in his administration for Chuck Hagel.
USA Today curtain-raises Obama's trip overseas. “For Barack Obama, the road to the White House is about to take a 12,000-mile detour. The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee will try to boost his résumé next week with a five-country European and Middle East tour that threatens to turn into Obamapalooza. In contrast to the low-key coverage of Republican John McCain's European and Middle East trip in March, Obama will be accompanied by a campaign plane of reporters and trailed by three network broadcast anchors. McCain got some headlines, but did not have a traveling press corps.”
VIDEO: Former Congressman Tim Toemer, a member of the Obama campaign, talks with MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski about criticism over Barack Obama's overseas trip amidst domestic economic and energy concerns. The
New York Times notes how folks in Iraq and Afghanistan seem to be looking forward to Obama's election. "There was, as Mr. Obama prepared to visit here, excitement over a man who is the anti-Bush in almost every way: a Democrat who opposed a war that many Iraqis feel devastated their nation. And many in the political elite recognize that Mr. Obama shares their hope for a more rapid withdrawal of American forces from Iraq.”
“But his support for troop withdrawal cuts both ways, reflecting a deep internal quandary in Iraq: for many middle-class Iraqis, affection for Mr. Obama is tempered by worry that his proposal could lead to chaos in a nation already devastated by war. Many Iraqis also acknowledge that security gains in recent months were achieved partly by the buildup of American troops, which Mr. Obama opposed and his presumptive Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, supported."
“Obama said two goals of his administration would be to secure all loose nuclear material during his first term, as well as rid the world of nuclear weapons,” AP writes. “He said adhering to nonproliferation treaties would put pressure on nations such as North Korea and Iran.” Bloomberg News profiles Illinois state Senate president, Emil Jones, who calls himself Obama's political Godfather. "The two men, who met in 1985 when Obama was a community organizer in Chicago, didn't get off to an auspicious start. Obama once described Jones, a holdover from the machine-politics era of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, as an ‘old ward heeler.' When Obama made his first successful run for the state Senate in 1996, Jones supported his opponent. In 2000, when Obama ran unsuccessfully for an Illinois U.S. House seat against incumbent Bobby Rush, Jones didn't back him.”
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe writes, “Romney, whose prospects of becoming John McCain's running mate appear on the rise, is preparing to formally declare he will not seek donations to repay $45 million in personal loans he made to his failed presidential bid - the biggest ever made by a candidate in a primary campaign. The move could clear away the last remnants of a divisive primary race, ensuring that he and his financial supporters are focused on helping McCain, but it could also put him at odds with McCain's campaign reform message.”
The Washington Post takes a look at the choice facing Obama: a change agent or a Hill veteran and splits up some of the common names that have been on the list in those two columns.
More compiled by NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli…DEMOCRATS: The Washington Post looks at yesterday’s Obama-Bayh-Nunn gathering and wonders if the nominee goes with the “Hill Veteran or Change Agent.” Also in the article, Joe Biden says “that he had not been contacted by Kennedy or Holder.” ... “Sources close to the campaign said Obama also is intrigued by several political veterans, including Biden. The senator from Delaware has said emphatically on numerous occasions that he is not interested in the job, but he has many advocates, including powerful Clinton.” YouTube channel again , posting his “Today” interview and CNN hit. The previous video posted was his presidential campaign concession, six months ago. He is on the ballot this fall, but interesting tea leaves. Talking Points Memo wonders if Bayh should be considered, since he was “an honorary co-chair of the neocon pro-war Committee for the Liberation of Iraq -- a group he joined along with none other than John McCain and Joe Lieberman.” “A lot has changed since 2003,” Bayh communications director Eric Kleiman told TPM. “And Senator Bayh has acknowledged if we knew then what we know now, he wouldn't have cast that vote.” REPUBLICANS: Mike Huckabee will participate in the 15th annual funniest celebrity in DC contest on Sept. 10. American Spectator talks to a number of Republican voices looking for suggestions for McCain. Of the 10 who offered names, six mentioned Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC), five for Romney, four for Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), three for ex-Rep. John Kasich (R-OH).
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger… DEMOCRATS: Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young
have created a new version of their song, “Chicago,” which spoke of the 1968 Democratic convention riots with the words “Won't you please come to Chicago?” and “We can change the world, rearrange the world.” The new version, appropriately called “Denver,” was sung at a recent concert and dedicated to Colo. Gov. Bill Ritter, who was in the audience.
Denver’s I-25
will be closed the evening Obama accepts the nomination at Invesco Field.
Rolling Stone magazine, which looked at Obama’s Ipod last week, expects Wilco and Steve Wonder to be added to the Denver musical lineup.
REPUBLICANS: A federal judge has
upheld the terms of demonstration permits for protesters in Minnesota. The judge “rejected virtually every argument made by attorneys for the protest group. The group had sought a route for the Sept. 1 march that would come close to encircling the Xcel Energy Center and a schedule that would have continued later into the day so that delegates arriving for an evening session would see the demonstrators.”
Cab fares are rising a dollar in Minneapolis and St. Paul and are going to be even higher during convention week.
The Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development estimates a $162 million
gross state product gain from the Labor Day week.
The Democrats won’t be the only ones with music. Sammy Hagar and LeAnn Rimes
will perform at private parties during the Minnesota convention.
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones McCain has received plenty attention -- including here -- for saying "Czechoslovakia," when that country no longer exists.
Well, it turns out that potential veep pick Sam Nunn also referred to Czechoslovakia at today's global-threats summit in Indiana with Obama.
Here's the video, courtesy of the McCain campaign:
"Missile defense -- that's another whole subject," Nunn said. "I won't take much time except to say we in this country are about to, under this government, under the Bush Administration, deploy a missile defense system in Poland and Czechoslovakia, which is an immature system that has not been adequately tested against an immature threat that has not yet materialized."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Sam Nunn was to his right, Evan Bayh to his left at Obama’s Indiana event today. Both were praiseworthy of the nominee, including Bayh boosting his b-ball skills.
Nunn said he thought the chances of an offer were "pretty slim" and that he was not pining to go back into public office but that he'd consider it. Bayh said he loved serving the people of Indiana but that VP talk was "good for my ego.” Both men said they felt Obama had strong national security credentials and grasp of the issues. Neither would say if they were being vetted.
Per Athena Jones, an Obama aide said that Obama did not have one-on-one time with either potential VP, though they probably did spend a quick moment together before taking the stage.
Mitt Romney appeared on each cable network this afternoon -- CNN, MSNBC and Fox News. He told Mika Brzezinski: “The whole vetting process is something you have to talk to the McCain campaign about. I have nothing for you on the VP front. … I expect to be working for the McCain team, I don’t expect to be part of it.”
On CNN , he said: “With regards to all the people that think I might be on some kind of shortlist, the only one that really counts in my regard is John McCain. I don’t think he’s told anybody what his thinking is.”
Patti Solis Doyle says she, as Obama’s VP chief of staff, could easily work for HRC if she’s the running mate. And she says she checked with Clinton before moving to the Obama camp. “She's a friend of mine and I just wanted to, both on a personal and professional level, let her know what I was doing and make sure that she was, you know, good with it. And she was.” A Clinton aide would not comment on the senator’s private conversations.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- The
Bush administration has not done enough to confront the national security threats of tomorrow, from bio-terrorism and cyber-terrorism to the potential for nuclear weapons to get into the hands of not only nations but individuals,
Obama said Wednesday.
The Illinois senator, who has spent this week talking about national security issues, hosted a panel with experts on how to confront the security challenges of the 21st century, saying that as president he would work with government, industry and academia to prevent these kinds of attacks and prepare for them should they ever occur.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses the new ad from the Obama campaign which focuses on national security and is set to air in key battleground states. Former Georgia Sen. Sam
Nunn and Indiana Sen. Evan
Bayh -- both of whom have worked on national security issues and whose names have come up amid speculation over potential running mates -- joined the Illinois senator on the panel. It was his first appearance with either politician on the campaign trail, though Obama traveled to Iraq with Bayh in 2006.
The presumptive Democratic nominee complimented Bayh -- calling him “one of the finest senators, prior to that one of the finest governors that we’ve had in the country” -- as well as Nunn and Republican Sen. Richard Lugar , who was not present.
“Other than the fact that he’s a Republican I can’t find wrong anything with that guy,” Obama said to laughter and applause. “He is a great friend and much of the work that I’ve done in this area has been with him and his office. His staff is outstanding. We’ve traveled together, and so I want to make sure to acknowledge his outstanding leadership along with Sam Nunn in some of these critical areas. The two of them working together probably did more in the 1990s and continue to do more than just about any other American citizens in making sure that we are safe from cataclysm, and so we are very grateful to both of them for their outstanding efforts.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and NBC's Domenico Montanaro Patti Solis Doyle, Clinton's ousted campaign manager who is now Obama's VP chief of staff, tells AP , "she could easily work for her old boss again if Clinton were on the Democratic ticket."
She said it was a tough choice to take a role with the Obama campaign but did so with the blessing of Clinton. She and her former boss still keep in touch over e-mail, she said.
"She's a friend of mine and I just wanted to, both on a personal and professional level, let her know what I was doing and make sure that she was, you know, good with it. And she was," Solis Doyle said.
Interesting that she speaks now and from her office at Obama's headquarters. And isn't this good for Democratic "unity"?
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum After McCain's speech to the NAACP, former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R-MD) admitted the Arizona senator is unlikely to garner much of the black vote, but praised him for connecting with the audience. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell . “Barack is going to take more than the lion's share of the black vote. But that doesn't and has not stopped John McCain from competing for that vote. And I think that says a lot about the kind of president he is going to be -- that he doesn't just see this as an election opportunity, that he sees this as an opportunity for America to right a lot of wrongs certainly but to grow together -- the idea of every boat being lifted at the same time, and I think that's a powerful message."Obama , McCain held a Q&A after his speech, which caused a visible stir in the room.
"You could hear the room go, what?! He's actually going to open this up?!" Steele later said. "And I was asking folks, 'Did Barack do that?' And they were, like, 'No.' So, I think it speaks to the style. It speaks to the substance of the man in terms of how he wants to engage the black community, and I appreciate him doing it.
CONTINUED >>
Get your political questions answered by NBC's Chuck Todd , who will again be taking questions on Newsvine from 3:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET today.
As written on the Nightly News Web site, Chuck's challenge to Newsviners: Figure out who won the California Governor's Race in the final episode of "Benson."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama TV ad -- to run on national cable beginning tomorrow -- which focuses on the subject he's addressing today (nuclear proliferation), features (once again) Republican Dick Lugar , and stresses that he brings "new leadership for a changing world."
Script: Announcer: 40 years ago it was missile silos and the Cold War.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
CINCINNATI, OH -- After rejecting an invitation to appear before last year’s NAACP convention when running in a crowded GOP primary field,
McCain today accepted the group’s invitation this year as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Focusing his speech mostly on education, McCain pledged his support for school choice and for increased funding to the country’s failing schools.
But first, he went above and beyond normal pleasantries in praising his Democratic opponent for making history. “Don't tell him I said this, but he is an impressive fellow in many ways,” McCain said of Obama . “He has inspired a great many Americans, some of whom had wrongly believed that a political campaign could hold no purpose or meaning for them. His success should make Americans, all Americans, proud. Of course, I would prefer his success not continue quite as long as he hopes.”
VIDEO: Republican presidential nominee John McCain praised Barack Obama's groundbreaking presidential run, while laying out his plans for public education, the economy and civil rights to members of the NAACP. In emphasizing his support for education, McCain proposed allocating existing federal dollars for a new push towards online education. That would include $500 million to build “new virtual schools and to support the development of online courses,” along with $250 million “to support state programs expanding online education opportunities.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
This morning, the
Obama campaign held a conference call arguing that
McCain has shifted his position on sending additional troops to Afghanistan, which has seen a resurgence of the Taliban and increased US casualties.
After months of saying additional troops were not needed in Afghanistan, McCain changed position Tuesday and called for an additional three brigades -- or roughly 15,000 troops -- to be sent to the country. It was unclear if those troops would be redeployed from Iraq or come from NATO forces.
VIDEO: In the Hardball Big Number, Chris Matthews talks about the 22 times Barack Obama mentioned Afghanistan in his "major address" on foreign policy. Obama adviser Susan Rice said McCain was out of touch and divorced from reality when it came to dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan, calling the Arizona senator's speech yesterday "surreal" and arguing that he has "no credible plan for either conflict and it's resolution."
"He says he wants to surge in Afghanistan without reducing our presence in Iraq, which the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has repeatedly said is impossible," she said. "And he wants to balance our budget by 2013, in part on the basis of troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq which he opposes."
Obama communications strategist Robert Gibbs suggested McCain's stance on troops in Afghanistan had changed several times over the course of Tuesday -- and could change again in short order.
McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds sent this email in response to the Obama conference call: “By committing to a policy for the war in Afghanistan before he visits the country and meets with our commanders for the first time, before he holds a single oversight hearing and after he voted against war-funding for the troops serving there -- Barack Obama has shown he views foreign policy through a lens of ideology rather than through looking at facts. Americans are tired of that brand of leadership, and are ready for a leader that will be prepared and put country first.”
From NBC's Mark Murray Politico's Ben Smith , Planned Parenthood Action Fund is airing a new TV ad that hits McCain on his eight-second pause after being asked last week if he thought it was fair for health insurance companies to cover Viagra but not birth control.
The ad, as Planned Parenthood spokesman Tait Sye confirms to First Read, will run in the battlegrounds of Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, and DC -- airing on Bravo's Project Runway on Bravo, Lifetime's Army Wives, and Oprah. Sye wouldn't reveal the size of the buy, but said it was "smart" and "cost effective."
Sye also sends along this note: "According to the Guttmacher Institute , 'Nearly all sexually active women (98 percent in 2002) have used at least one method of birth control.'"
*** UPDATE ***
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Obama going abroad : Is Obama making the right call by heading to Europe and the Middle East at a time of such economic insecurity in the US? The answer is yes if you look at the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, which has Obama up eight points (50%-42%) among registered voters. While he beats McCain on the economy by a whopping 19 points, Obama doesn’t fare as well when it comes to foreign policy . “While 56 percent of respondents said Obama knows enough about world affairs to be a good president, 72 percent said so about McCain. Head to head, McCain was judged as the one with greater knowledge of the world by more than 2 to 1. The senator from Arizona also holds a narrow edge as the candidate better suited to deal with an unexpected major crisis, and he is more trusted, by a six-point margin, on the issue of fighting terrorism.” Obama’s trip abroad could be a disaster. But if it proves to be a success and if it narrows McCain’s edge on foreign policy, then doesn’t one assume that eight-point lead becomes larger? Arguably, in 1980, Reagan had a narrow lead over Carter because of the economy. But he was still struggling on the commander-in-chief stuff, and when he finally passed that test, he turned his narrow lead into a landslide victory.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses today's political headlines including the new Washington Post/ABC poll that has Barack Obama leading John McCain by eight points among registered voters. ***
Also worth noting: There are a couple of more things worth noting from the Washington Post/ABC poll. One, it appears that a bigger turnout benefits Obama. While the Illinois senator has an eight-point lead among registered voters, his edge is much smaller when you reduce the race to likely voters (49%-46%). (And right now, pollsters will tell you that with older voters leaning McCain these days, any likely voter model is going to favor McCain for now. If Obama moves younger voters as well as many observers assume come October, the likely voter numbers could change). In this poll, when you expand it to include all adults, Obama’s lead is 12 points (51%-39%). And two, 79% in the poll believe that Obama is an optimist versus 54% who say that about McCain. How many times has the more pessimistic candidate won a presidential election?
*** Crank up the VP chatter : Obama makes his first post-primary appearance in Indiana today, when he heads to Purdue University to hold a summit on confronting 21st century threats like nuclear proliferation, bioterrorism, and cyber-security. And in the process, he’ll be hanging out with two Dems who are likely to be on someone’s short list: Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn. While it's not surprising to have Bayh attend an Obama event in Indiana, the appearance of Sam Nunn might raise an eyebrow or two... The topic, of course, is one of Nunn's pets, and Nunn-Lugar is synonymous with this issue. The Obama press corps hasn't spent much time with Nunn in person, so he's auditioning today -- at least for the press.
*** Hoosier battleground : With Obama in Indiana today, it’s as good of a time as any to talk about the state. Could it be this year's West Virginia -- meaning, like West Virginia in 2000, will the state end up swinging against its CW history following what its neighboring states have done for the last 20 years? A Democrat hasn’t won Indiana since 1964, but polls we’ve seen suggest the race there is pretty darn close. What’s more, the state is one of those battlegrounds (in addition to Pennsylvania and North Carolina) in which the long primary season might benefit Obama. Per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, as of last week, Obama had made 26 campaign stops in the state in 20 days, versus two stops for McCain. And if Bayh is added to Obama’s ticket…? Then again, Bush beat Kerry here in 2004, 60%-39%. And in 2000, he won the state, 57%-41%. Still, Indiana has had the same economic issues as its neighboring states of Ohio and Michigan. Moreover, Dems now hold a majority of the state's congressional seats, meaning there will be a lot more Dem money and organization in the state than ever before. The one thing McCain has going for him is that incumbent GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels appears to have pulled out of his funk and seems to be favored for re-election.
*** Before a tough crowd : While Obama is in Indiana today, McCain is doing something many GOP nominees wouldn't do -- and that's speak in front of the NAACP. (Yet it’s worth noting that McCain and every GOP presidential contender besides Tancredo didn’t speak to the group last year.) This excerpt from his speech explains why McCain believes he should be there: "As much as any other group in America, the NAACP has been at the center of that great and honorable cause. I’m here today as an admirer and a fellow American, an association that means more to me than any other. I am a candidate for president who seeks your vote and hopes to earn it. But whether or not I win your support, I need your goodwill and counsel. And should I succeed, I’ll need it all the more. I have always believed in this country, in a good America, a great America. But I have always known we can build a better America, where no place or person is left without hope or opportunity by the sins of injustice or indifference. It would be among the great privileges of my life to work with you in that cause." Per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, also expect McCain to lavish extensive and detailed praise on Obama. President Bush spoke to the NAACP when he was a candidate in 2000, but didn’t reappear before the group until 2006.
VIDEO: Is John McCain too old to be president? Guest host David Shuster gets the latest reaction from GOP strategist Kevin Madden, Democratic analyst Tonya Acker and MSNBC analyst Carl Crawford. ***
Czech it out : Yesterday, Obama strategist Robert Gibbs fired off an email to reporters noting that McCain had changed his position on gay adoption and troops for Afghanistan, and that he referred to the Czech Republic as Czechoslovakia -- for the second time in two days. Of course, Czechoslovakia hasn’t existed since 1990s. It was far from a campaign-killing mistake. But it comes after other McCain gaffes, like mixing up Sunnis and Shiites and incorrectly stating that the US troop presence in Iraq has dipped below its pre-surge level. The Czechoslovakia gaffe also advances this narrative, especially when you combine it with the news over the weekend that he doesn't use a computer: McCain is more of a 20th-century presidential candidate rather than a 21st-century one. This is not an issue for McCain re: age; it's an issue for McCain re: the future. One of the few things Mark Penn got right in his presidential analysis during the campaign was that voters care about the future, not the past. (Now, had he listened to his own advice, he wouldn't have forced HRC to run for Bill's third term, but we digress.) Candidates who seem to be focused on the future usually end up on top. Interestingly, McCain is doing this on Iraq. He's gotten some traction on the issue, because he's moved the debate away from talking about how we got in and instead focused the debate on what to do now. He needs to shift his entire campaign into future mode. Obama, simply because of the historical nature of his campaign, already has that future feel. And just asking: Why haven’t we seen these kind of Gibbs emails before?
*** On the trail : McCain is in Cincinnati, OH, where he speaks to the NAACP annual convention before heading to Nebraska to raise money. Obama, meanwhile, is in Indiana attending the “Summit on Confronting 21st Century Threats.”
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The Los Angeles Times writes, “As he prepares for an extensive trip overseas, Barack Obama delivered a sweeping foreign policy address Tuesday in which he sought to reassure his supporters that he remains committed to ending the war in Iraq.”
VIDEO: Barack Obama and John McCain criticized each other Tuesday in speeches about Iraq. A Hardball panel takes a look at the two candidates' competing views of war. The
Washington Post notes how the debate shifted from Iraq to Afghanistan yesterday. "After weeks of verbal combat over Iraq, the candidates offered prescriptions for Afghanistan with striking similarities -- though the sniping went on unabated. Both men spoke passionately, not only about military assistance to Afghanistan and Pakistan but also of nonmilitary aid to foster democracy and goodwill in the region. Both spoke broadly of building alliances to combat terrorism, transforming South Asia ‘from a theater for regional rivalries into a commons for regional cooperation,’ as McCain put it."
The New York Times says that McCain’s call for more troops to Afghanistan was a reversal from past statements about the country. “Mr. McCain said that both Iraq and Afghanistan were important battlegrounds and that the United States had the ability to fight in both places as long as it retained the will to do so. But on Tuesday, after saying for months that no additional forces were needed in Afghanistan, Mr. McCain changed course and advocated the deployment of an additional three brigades, or about 15,000 troops.”
MoveOn has announced it’s running another TV ad hitting McCain -- but sans the controversial mother and her baby, Alex. The buy is relatively small ($100,000), and the ad will run on national cable. “In Chicago, in Saint Louis, and Seattle, the American people are demanding a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq,” the ad goes. “In Baghdad and Basra and Tikrit, the Iraqi people and now the Iraqi Prime minister are also demanding a timetable.”
“But John McCain doesn't want a timetable. He'll spend hundreds of billions of dollars more to keep our keep our troops in Iraq for years and years. John McCain. It's time to end the war and move on.”
CONTINUED >>
Three new national polls have come out -- New York Times/CBS (which has Obama leading by six, 45%-39%, among registered voters), the Washington Post/ABC (which has Obama up eight among registered voters, 50%-42%), and Reuters/Zogby (which has him up seven, 47%-40%). When adding yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll (which had Obama up nine among likely voters), it cements the CW that Obama’s lead over McCain right now is in the high single digits.
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses the latest opinion polls and Barack Obama's speeches to the NAACP and his trip to the mideast. The
Washington Post says Obama “holds his biggest advantage of the presidential campaign as the candidate best prepared to fix the nation's ailing economy, but lingering concerns about his readiness to handle international crises are keeping the race competitive… Questions about Obama's experience remain, particularly his ability to deal with national security and international issues. Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said that his level of experience would hamper his ability to serve effectively as president, while 40 percent said it would help. And asked whether he would make a good commander in chief, 48 percent said yes."
The New York Times uses its poll to focus on the issue of race. "The results of the poll, conducted against the backdrop of a campaign in which race has been a constant if not always overt issue, suggested that Mr. Obama’s candidacy, while generating high levels of enthusiasm among black voters, is not seen by them as evidence of significant improvement in race relations."
More: "Nearly 60 percent of black respondents said race relations were generally bad, compared with 34 percent of whites. Four in 10 blacks say that there has been no progress in recent years in eliminating racial discrimination; fewer than 2 in 10 whites say the same thing. And about one-quarter of white respondents said they thought that too much had been made of racial barriers facing black people, while one-half of black respondents said not enough had been made of racial impediments faced by blacks.”
MICHIGAN : Another reason why this state is becoming a thorn in Obama's side: He's not wanting to over-court the state's Muslim and Arab community.
“Advocates for gay and lesbian families are denouncing Senator John McCain, an adoptive father himself, for opposing adoptions by gays, which prompted his presidential campaign to clarify yesterday that he does not seek a federal ban on the practice . Only one state, Florida, outlaws gay adoptions, which have become commonplace in much of the nation.Here's the DNC's video .“announced plans for four events in Maine Monday . McCain will speak at the Maine Military Museum in South Portland Monday afternoon, at about 12:30 p.m., following three fundraisers in Kennbunkport earlier in the day, the Associated Press reported.”
On that New Yorker cover , Obama told CNN's Larry King: "You know, there are wonderful Muslim Americans all across the country who are doing wonderful things. And for this to be used as sort of an insult, or to raise suspicions about me, I think is unfortunate. And it's not what America's all about."
VIDEO: A Hardball panel debates whether the controversial New Yorker cover showing Barack Obama in Muslim garb is satire or slur. Maureen Dowd uses the New Yorker cover as a springboard to ask: Why can’t we laugh at Obama? “At first blush, it would seem to be a positive for Obama that he is hard to mock. But on second thought, is it another sign that he’s trying so hard to be perfect that it’s stultifying? Or that eight years of W. and Cheney have robbed Democratic voters of their sense of humor?”
“Certainly, as the potential first black president, and as a contender with tender experience, Obama must feel under strain to be serious. But he does not want the ‘take’ on him to become that he’s so tightly wrapped, overcalculated and circumspect that he can’t even allow anyone to make jokes about him, and that his supporters are so evangelical and eager for a champion to rescue America that their response to any razzing is a sanctimonious: Don’t mess with our messiah!”
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli…
DEMOCRATS : Joe Biden once again played Obama surrogate on “Today.” He said McCain is “still not ready to be commander in chief.” He also said something yesterday conservatives are jumping on: "If John wants to know where the bad guys live, come back with me to Afghanistan," Biden said. "We know where they reside. And it’s not in Iraq."Daily News , among others, follows up on Friday’s New York Observer report that Hillary Clinton is seeking to roll over general election contributions to a 2012 account. and
VIDEO: TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Joe Biden about the presidential candidates' positions on the economy and foreign policy.
Bill O’Reilly is targeting Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) over Dr. George Tiller, who the show says “was performing illegal late-term abortions and covering up instances of child rape.” Sebelius called him “a health care provider in Kansas” after initially saying she didn’t know anything about him. O’Reilly: “Tiller himself donated money to her campaign. She doesn't seem to be real upset about this guy operating a death mill, which is exactly what it is in her state, does she?” REPUBLICANS : Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) has raised more than $500,000 for McCain as a bundler. “increasingly messy.” “stewing” over Gov. Bobby Jindal’s vetoes, saying they targeted urban areas of the state.
Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger…
DEMOCRATS : No tailgating at Invesco . Parking in stadium lots for Obama's speech will be banned. So leave the kielbasa, burgers and dogs at home. Shuttling from the Pepsi Center or other places is likely. didn’t know of Obama’s decision to move his final-night acceptance speech from the Pepsi Center to Invesco Field until the campaign announced it on a conference call with reporters, Politico reports.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses today's political headlines, including Barack Obama planning to accept his party's nomination at a football stadium.
A song conservative Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch wrote about Ted Kennedy will be played as a tribune to Kennedy at the Democratic convention . "He's a special person to me. I want to honor him this way," Hatch said in an interview.REPUBLICANS : Publicists for Jacob Dylan are denying rumors that dad Bob Dylan persuaded him and his band, the Wallflowers, to cancel a gig for the Minnesota Agri-Growth Council during the second night of the convention.
In Georgia yesterday... "DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Vernon Jones and former state lawmaker Jim Martin will need a runoff to decide which of the Georgia Democrats will challenge Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), who was unopposed, in November."
The New York Times : “[T]here was … uncertainty over how well Mr. Jones [who is black] would do and, should he win, what effect his candidacy would have. Some have argued that Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, would pull votes into Mr. Jones’s column, while others have predicted that Mr. Jones, whose tenure in DeKalb County has been marred by controversy, would hurt Mr. Obama, drawing white voters to the polls to oppose him.”
Meanwhile, Rep. John Lewis -- who faced a primary challenge due to his early endorsement of Hillary Clinton -- easily won and won’t face a run off .
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli At his town hall today, a Scholastic reporter asked McCain about the VP search, saying it “is somewhat difficult because we have so many highly qualified individuals” to consider. He gave no names.Romney spoke with former CBS embed Scott Conroy in Michigan yesterday. Romney himself says: “That's a topic I don't speculate about.” Those close to him also “have insisted that he's not campaigning for the vice presidency and that the possibility of being asked to serve is highly unlikely. One former senior campaign adviser who remains in frequent contact with Romney insists that the former governor ‘really believes he's got zero chance.’” Mitchell tried to pin down Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), who said: “I am interested in electing Barack Obama as the next president of the United States. … I’m interested in earning re-election to the U.S. Senate, and serving in the U.S. Senate. I have no interest in serving in the vice presidency.” Asked specifically if he would be VP if it meant helping elect Obama, Reed said: “I believe strongly that I can help Senator Obama the best way in working as a senator … serving in the Senate. … It’s about as clear, clear, clear as I can get.” Sebelius (D-KS) said the VP scrutiny “makes me a little uncomfortable . It’s a little strange.” But added: It’s not something I can do much about. … I hope it puts the focus on Kansas. Maybe they’ll buy airplanes.” Lugar (R-IN), co-star of a new ad for the Dem nominee, said that there “is no chance I will consider running with Barack Obama.” Napolitano (D-AZ) wouldn’t even answer questions about AG this weekend. WHAT THEY’RE UP TO. Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) said he was humbled by his drawing a blank on CNN, noting that cable shows give you only a second or two to respond, and "sometimes your brain works well; sometimes it doesn't. But that's being human." CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Mark Murray McCain said that such an increase was made possible due to the success of the recent troop surge in Iraq.
"Thanks to the success of the surge, these forces are becoming available, and our commanders in Afghanistan must get them," McCain said, implying that additional troops could either be shifted directly from Iraq or from other regions due to troops coming home from Iraq.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel talks about John McCain's speech Tuesday, where he said Barack Obama's goals for Iraq are flawed. Yet while speaking to reporters on his bus after this morning's town hall, McCain would not commit to whether those additional brigades would definitely be American ones. When asked if the three brigades would come from the United States or NATO, McCain said: "We need to work that out. We need to have greater participation on the part of our NATO allies, as I said in my opening remarks today and we need a lot more help."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Washington Post writes that "Obama holds his biggest advantage of the campaign as the candidate best prepared to fix the nation's ailing economy, but lingering concerns about his readiness to handle international crises are keeping the race close... Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said Obama's level of experience would hamper his ability to serve effectively as president; fewer, 40 percent, said it would help. And asked whether he would make a good commander in chief, 48 percent said yes. While 56 percent said Obama knows enough about world affairs to be a good president, more, 72 percent, said so about McCain."
On the plus side for Obama: "Asked whom they trust more to handle the economy, 54 percent of those surveyed named Obama; just 35 percent cited McCain. Obama's 19-point advantage on the economy is his largest of the campaign. He also holds double-digit leads on dealing with the federal budget deficit and on immigration. On social issues such as abortion and gay civil unions, 56 percent prefer Obama, 32 percent McCain."
Given these numbers, it's perhaps no surprise now that Obama is heading to the Middle East and Europe.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
Sen. Joe
Lieberman (I-CT) spoke for
McCain Tuesday before the Center for U.S. Global Engagement and said
Obama’s foreign policy plan “troubles” and “confuses” him.
Lieberman said he was unsure whether Obama supports a firm deadline for withdrawing troops from Iraq, a more flexible goal.
“I wish Sen. Obama would just say the surge has worked,” Lieberman said, “rather than changing his positions on how and when we should exit Iraq without acknowledging that these changes are understandably based on the facts on the ground.”
As Obama stressed shifting resources towards the conflict in Afghanistan, Lieberman stressed the two front’s interdependence, saying what happens in Iraq effects not just Afghanistan but other American interests around the world.
“What Sen. Obama does not seem to understand is that, had we taken the course he had counseled and retreated from Iraq, the United States would have suffered a catastrophic defeat that would have left America and our allies less safe not just in Baghdad, but in Kandahar and Karachi and Tokyo and London,” he said.
Lieberman also accused Obama of not taking principled stands, suggesting he “said he would be open to changing his plan for Iraq after going there and talking to General Petraeus -- only to change that position a few hours later after being heatedly criticized by organizations like Moveon.org?”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Reed (D-RI), who will accompany Obama to the Middle East with Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC that it’s “important” for Obama to go to Iraq. It “provides much more context” and gives a “better sense of what’s going on,” he said.
VIDEO: NBC's Martin Fletcher looks at how Israel views the U.S. presidential race and Barack Obama's upcoming trip to the country. That said, it’s not that Obama is wrong on strategy, he said. In fact, “Obama’s exactly right on the strategy,” said Reed, a former Army Ranger who has been to Iraq 11 times and voted against the Iraq war resolution. “He understood before the war.... The trip will provide details, but his strategic vision is sound.”
Reed, as he has in the past, called for a “conscious, steady redeployment” of troops from Iraq.
On Afghanistan , Reed said the administration should “put more combat forces on the ground” -- American forces, not just NATO troops. He also said there needs to be a reorganization of the chain of command there.
On being veep, Reed, who has also been rumored to be a possible vice presidential candidate for Obama, was asked if he’s interested in the No. 2 spot.
“I am interested in electing Barack Obama the next president of the United States,” he said. “I’m interested in earning re-election to the U.S. Senate, and serving in the U.S. Senate. I have no interest in the vice presidency. I believe strongly I can help Sen. Obama by helping in the U.S. Senate.”
Mitchell replied, “That’s a no, no, no.”
“Ah, that’s about as clear, clear, clear as I can get,” Reed said.
Though clearer, of course, would have been, “If Sen. Obama asked me, I would say no.”
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
ALBUQUERQUE, NM -- Today at a "Jobs for America" town hall,
McCain forcefully called for additional troops in Afghanistan for the first time in this campaign.
"Our commanders on the ground in Afghanistan say that they need at least three additional brigades," McCain said. "Thanks to the success of the surge, these forces are becoming available, and our commanders in Afghanistan must get them."
VIDEO: John McCain says, "I know how to win wars. And if I'm elected president, I will turn around the war in Afghanistan, just as we have turned around the war in Iraq." Watch his entire speech. This statement suggests that McCain might consider shifting troops directly from Iraq to Afghanistan. But speaking to reporters on his bus after today's speech, McCain indicated that he'd be open to those additional troops coming from NATO.
Just last week, McCain told reporters on his bus that the problem in Afghanistan was not troop presence -- but rather the strained relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. "I think the situation in Afghanistan is very tough," McCain said then. "One of the major reasons for it is not so much troop presence as the situation on the Pakistan-Afghan border. And I've been briefed several times by military leaders, including I met just yesterday with the ambassador from Pakistan to the United States."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON, DC -- In a major foreign policy speech today,
Obama invoked Gen.
George Marshall , the architect of the economic aid plan put in place to help rebuild Europe after World War II, as he called for a new approach to protecting America's national security and to relations with countries around the world.
The presumptive Democratic nominee argued this new strategy should combine military might with economic assistance and diplomacy. And he said the central front in the fight against terrorism was not Iraq -- but Afghanistan and Pakistan, saying Afghanistan needed more troops and that more development assistance must be provided to both countries.
VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with Barack Obama's senior foreign advisor Greg Craig about the Democratic presidential candidate's stance on Iraq. Obama laid out "five goals essential to making America safer,” including ending the war in Iraq responsibly, "finishing the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban," securing all nuclear weapons and materials from terrorists and rogue nations, achieving energy security, and rebuilding America's alliances around the world.
He also talked about his early opposition to the Iraq war and reiterated his commitment to withdrawing troops, versus McCain's support for continuing the war. And he painted the approach favored by McCain and President Bush as one focused on tactics rather than an overall strategy.
"All of us recognize that we must do more than look back -- we must make a judgment about how to move forward," Obama said. "In the words of Gen. Marshall: What is needed? What can best be done? What must be done? Sen. McCain wants to talk about our tactics in Iraq; I want to focus on a new strategy for Iraq and the wider world."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland Lugar (IN) today said an Obama campaign ad which features him is "accurate." The ad makes the point the Obama previously "reached out" to Lugar to "help lock down loose nuclear weapons."
Lugar is widely considered one of the most knowledgeable in the area of nuclear weapons proliferation and the coauthored of the 1991 Nunn-Lugar Act on cooperative threat reduction.
"He did" reach out, Lugar said. He explained that in 2005, Obama asked if he could join Lugar on a trip to Russia and other countries to visit sites under the Nunn-Lugar program.
"After that, we had legislation that we cosponsored together which passed" dealing with dangerous missiles. "So I am pleased we had that opportunity to work together," Lugar said. "I'm pleased we had the association Sen. Obama describes."
But Lugar made clear up front that while the ad was accurate, and he's comfortable with the association, "There is no chance I will consider running with Barack Obama."
The ad will run in more than a dozen states, including Lugar's home state of Indiana.
From NBC's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain senior advisor Charlie Black is back on the campaign trail just three weeks after his comments to Fortune Magazine about the beneficial effects a possible terrorist attack would have on McCain's campaign.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The first instance was yesterday during a media news availability and the second today during a town hall meeting.
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama is speaking on Afghanistan, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R) has penned a letter to Obama, noting that the Illinois senator has yet to hold a subcommittee hearing on Afghanistan -- which repeats a charge Hillary Clinton made against Obama during the primaries.
VIDEO: In a speech delivered in advance of an overseas trip, Sen. Barack Obama says President Bush and Sen. John McCain are failing to focus on the threats beyond Iraq's borders. Obama chairs the Foreign Relations Subcommittee on European Affairs, which oversees NATO and its role in Afghanistan. DeMint is the subcommittee's ranking member.
"There are concerns about the imbalance between some European nations, their level of commitment to the fight in Afghanistan, and caveats these nations place on their forces in theater," DeMint writes in a letter released by the McCain campaign. "I trust you will become well acquainted with these issues. The Bush Administration has worked hard to maintain and increase the level of forces our European allies have committed to the fight. However, despite these successes, I am concerned our Subcommittee has not held any hearings on these issues over the last two years."
DeMint adds, "The success of Afghanistan is critical to the future of NATO and vital to our efforts to defeat Al Qaeda and the Taliban. As the situation in Afghanistan grows more tense, it is time for us to hold a hearing on the mission there. I look forward to working with you to schedule this hearing."
However, the Obama campaign counters that oversight hearings regarding NATO’s role in Afghanistan would be held before the full Foreign Relations Committee, not Obama’s subcommittee.
As Joe Biden , the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, said last month on Meet the Press : "The reason Obama didn't hold a hearing on NATO, I chair the committee. Every one of those committee hearings are held at full committee."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign announced it's airing a new TV ad on national security/foreign policy that's set to run in 18 states (14 of them red ones, four of them blue) -- Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.
The script: BO at town hall: We are a beacon of light around the world. At least that's what we can be again. That's what we should be again.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Iraq is back…: With the press mesmerized by shiny metal objects like the New Yorker’s controversial magazine cover or what Jesse Jackson said while wearing a hot mic, Obama today turns the focus back to one of the central issues of this presidential election when he delivers a major speech in DC on Iraq and Afghanistan. It comes right before the Illinois senator embarks on an international trip that will take him to Iraq and Afghanistan. And it comes pegged to a new Washington Post/ABC poll on Iraq that’s a mixed bag for the two presidential candidates. The good news for McCain (and bad news for Obama): 50% say they support Obama’s timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, while 49% oppose it. What’s more, by a 47%-45% margin, respondents trust McCain more to handle Iraq, and 72% say McCain would be a good commander-in-chief for the military versus just 48% who say the same of Obama. Essentially, if this election were turning on the issue of Iraq or the commander-in-chief question, it would be nearly impossible to predict who would come out on top. The bad news for McCain (and good news for Obama): Iraq is no longer the public’s top concern; the economy is. In addition, the poll finds that a whopping 63% say the Iraq war hasn’t been worth fighting. And while just 34% believe that the US must win in Iraq for the broader war on terror to be successful, 51% say that of Afghanistan.
VIDEO: Author Richard Clarke discusses Barack Obama's plan to redeploy U.S. troops, pressing Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security and stability. ***
… And so is Afghanistan: So perhaps it’s not surprising then that Obama also will use today’s speech to shift the war debate and troop-level chatter from Iraq to Afghanistan. “It is unacceptable that almost seven years after nearly 3,000 Americans were killed on our soil, the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 are still at large,” Obama is expected to say, according to excerpts released by the campaign. “Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahari are recording messages to their followers and plotting more terror. The Taliban controls parts of Afghanistan… And yet today, we have five times more troops in Iraq than Afghanistan.” More: “Sen. McCain said -- just months ago -- that ‘Afghanistan is not in trouble because of our diversion to Iraq.’ I could not disagree more. Our troops and our NATO allies are performing heroically in Afghanistan, but I have argued for years that we lack the resources to finish the job because of our commitment to Iraq. That’s what the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier this month. And that’s why, as president, I will make the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban the top priority that it should be. This is a war that we have to win.”
*** Perhaps it’s better to announce your plans after you visit: Meanwhile, at his town hall in New Mexico today, McCain will respond to Obama’s Iraq-Afghanistan speech by arguing that his Democratic opponent is reformulating his policies BEFORE his trip. “Sen. Obama is departing soon on a trip abroad that will include a fact-finding mission to Iraq and Afghanistan. And I note that he is speaking today about his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before he has even left, before he has talked to Gen. Petraeus, before he has seen the progress in Iraq, and before he has set foot in Afghanistan for the first time,” he is expected to say. “In my experience, fact-finding missions usually work best the other way around: first you assess the facts on the ground, then you present a new strategy." Of course, critics might point to McCain’s own stroll through a Baghdad market in 2007 -- which he said was proof of progress in Iraq, but where he was protected by 100 US soldiers, Apache helicopters, and a bulletproof vest -- as evidence that he wasn’t exactly assessing the facts on the ground there, either. Still, the facts on the ground have benefited McCain now and Obama needs to be careful that he isn't looking too much like an average politician who will say whatever he has to, to get elected.
*** Baseball metaphor time: Last night during the home run derby at the All-Star festivities at Yankee Stadium, Josh Hamilton put on quite the show -- it was jaw-dropping how many balls he hit out of the ballpark. And yet, he didn't win the derby. Because when it came time to connect when it counted, Hamilton didn't come through. At times Hamilton looked unbeatable -- like he couldn't be touched -- and started to try and coast to victory. Just sayin...
VIDEO: A Hardball panel ranks the top three choices for the Republican and Democrat vice presidential candidate. ***
I wouldn’t kid you if I didn’t love you: At a fundraiser in New Mexico last night, McCain cracked this joke at Romney’s expense: “I’m appreciative every time I see Mitt on television on my behalf. He does a better job for me than he did for himself as a matter of fact.” Bada bing. If McCain can start joking about someone, you know they've made it into his mental inner circle. Romney may very well be higher on the short list than anyone realizes. The biggest roadblock for many in picturing a McCain-Romney ticket is McCain getting over his personal reservations about him. But joking about him is a start.
*** Peach State primary: For Democrats to reach the difficult -- yet potentially attainable -- goal of having a filibuster-proof 60 Senate seats, they’re going to have win contests beyond current top targets such as Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Colorado. They’ll have to put other states in play like Kentucky or Kansas or Georgia -- where five Democrats duke it out in a primary today for the right to face incumbent GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The DSCC’s preferred candidate is 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Jim Martin, but also worth watching are DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, and environmental engineer Rand Knight. Observers expect no candidate to clear the 50% threshold to avoid a run off. Jones has attempted to attach himself to the hip of Obama, literally. How? He photo-shopped himself in with Obama at a rally for a direct mail piece. We'll see if this low-attention race will turn on whether these guys are proving a connection to Obama. As for Chambliss, remember that no first-term senator is ever totally safe. Six years is a long time, particularly for that first re-election bid.
*** Also in Georgia today…: As the Washington Post notes, Georgia John Lewis -- the civil-rights icon who endorsed Clinton during the primaries then later announced he would cast his superdelegate vote for Obama after the Illinois senator’s win in Georgia -- is receiving a primary challenge. “Today, Lewis faces his first primary challengers since 1992, a pair of candidates who are promoting the ‘change’ mantra of Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign and have organized their campaigns around a single, not-so-subtle message: Lewis's support for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) over Obama in the presidential primary.”
*** On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Albuquerque, NM. Obama, in DC, gives a major policy speech on Iraq.
*** And heads up: Bush will hold a White House press conference at 10:20 am ET.
Countdown to Dem convention: 41 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails.
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain nationally by nine points, 50%-41%. Per a release, “Independent voters split 44%-44%… Sen. McCain has a slight 47%-44% edge among men voters and a larger 49%-42% lead among white voters. But black voters back Sen. Obama 94%-1%, while women support him 55%-36%. Obama leads 63-%-31% percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48%-44% among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45% for McCain and 44% for Obama.”
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses the latest opinion polls and Barack Obama's speeches to the NAACP and preceeding his trip to the mideast. Here are some more excerpts from Obama’s foreign policy speech today: “Our men and women in uniform have accomplished every mission we have given them. What’s missing in our debate about Iraq -- what has been missing since before the war began -- is a discussion of the strategic consequences of Iraq and its dominance of our foreign policy. This war distracts us from every threat that we face and so many opportunities we could seize. This war diminishes our security, our standing in the world, our military, our economy, and the resources that we need to confront the challenges of the 21st century. By any measure, our single-minded and open-ended focus on Iraq is not a sound strategy for keeping America safe.”
More: “I am running for President of the United States to lead this country in a new direction -- to seize this moment’s promise. Instead of being distracted from the most pressing threats that we face, I want to overcome them. Instead of pushing the entire burden of our foreign policy on to the brave men and women of our military, I want to use all elements of American power to keep us safe, and prosperous, and free. Instead of alienating ourselves from the world, I want America -- once again -- to lead.”
A new Washington Post/ABC poll on the issue of Iraq has good news and bad news for both candidates. The poll “finds the country split down the middle between those backing Sen. Barack Obama's 16-month timeline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and those agreeing with Sen. John McCain's position that events, not timetables, should dictate when forces come home… On Iraq policy in general, Americans continue to side with Obama and McCain, his Republican rival, in roughly equal numbers, with 47 percent of those polled saying they trust McCain more to handle the war, and 45 percent having more faith in Obama.”
CONTINUED >>
COLORADO: The campaign efforts in Colorado are really starting to take shape , with about 50 staffers on the ground for Obama and coordinated campaign field offices popping up statewide for McCain.
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses how the campaigns are maneuvering in battleground states like Ohio, Florida and Virginia.
FLORIDA: The FL GOP will open 35 offices statewide to aid in the 2008 effort in the key state.might be confusing .IOWA: Writes Beaumont of the Des Moines Register: "Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is off to a more aggressive campaign in Iowa than John McCain, despite the Republican having clinched the nomination three months earlier than his rival. Obama has 15 campaign offices open and staffed in Iowa, while McCain is still plotting where to locate about half as many." OHIO: The controversies of 2004 are still fresh on some activists' minds. A group in Ohio wants a federal judge to go forward with contempt proceedings against county election officials accused of destroying ballots during the last presidential election. VIRGINIA: The Post's E.J. Dionne offers some thoughts on how Obama could potentially turn the Old Dominion blue.opens up a handful of new Virginia offices, but the Obama campaign remains a few steps ahead organizationally.
The New York Times : “Cindy McCain, the wife of Senator John McCain -- who inherited a Phoenix beer distributorship that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars -- will reap a tidy windfall from the $52 billion sale of Anheuser-Busch to the Belgian brewer InBev.” More: “Hensley & Company … owns a minimum of $1 million in Anheuser-Busch common stock, according to Mr. McCain’s most recent Senate financial disclosures. No maximum is given, but last year’s dividend income on that stock was between $50,001 and $100,000 in Anheuser-Busch stock, the disclosures show. And since Anheuser-Busch paid out dividends of $1.25 a share in 2007, it appears that Hensley owned between 40,000 and 80,000 shares. That, in turn, suggests that the $70-per-share price InBev is paying will give Hensley a gain of roughly $1 million to $2 million compared to February, when speculation about the deal surfaced and two-thirds of that would pencil out as the McCain family’s windfall.”
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses today's political headlines including Barack Obama and John McCain courtino Latino votes and McCain criticizing Obama on immigration reform. McCain reached out yesterday “to Hispanic voters, telling them that he is an ally on immigration reform -- and hitting Democratic rival Barack Obama for allegedly ducking the issue,” the
Boston Globe reports. McCain cited his risking his candidacy for immigration reform -- though at the time, it was unclear McCain understood the political risk, during the primaries, he said he wouldn’t even vote for his own legislation.
“McCain's support among Hispanic Americans is
lagging behind that of Obama, who backs comprehensive immigration reform and has attracted many Latino voters who had supported Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. McCain got in trouble in 2007 with Republican hardliners for pushing a proposed immigration law that would grant millions of illegal immigrants a path to U.S. citizenship. He had to change his tune when the legislation collapsed in the U.S. Senate. McCain now argues for securing the U.S. border with Mexico first and then embarking on legislation to allow illegal immigrants to work legally in the United States, although some Hispanics in his home state said they are wary of him."
The Wall Street Journal profiles one of the under-covered players in Republican politics these days -- Las Vegas' Sheldon Adelson.
Here's a lead from the Los Angeles Times the Obama campaign is going to love: "Unswayed by the Rev. Jesse Jackson's disapproval, Sen. Barack Obama pressed his message Monday that African Americans needed to take more responsibility for their lives and families, a theme that had angered one of the icons of the civil rights movement. Obama got a standing ovation at the annual NAACP convention here, presenting himself as a symbol of the political power that earlier black leaders had won. Touting the sacrifice of these activists, Obama said their courage had allowed him to ‘stand before you tonight as the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America.’”
VIDEO: Barack Obama urges African Americans to take more personal responsibility in a wide-ranging speech to the annual NAACP convention. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports. The
Chicago Tribune notes that some say Obama’s candidacy is a “dual track” “balancing act” when it comes to the black community -- “one that seeks to prove he is in tune with the needs of the black community while also not alienating whites.” McCain also speaks to the NAACP tomorrow: “While Democratic presidential nominees typically receive about 90 percent of the black vote -- and some experts believe Obama could exceed that -- McCain's appearance seeks to show he is independent-minded and can reach out to all.”
With the New York Times’ chief TV writer pulling New Yorker-cover duty, it brings home the fact that this entire story was a media creation, not one of those controversies created by the candidate. Pure media creation, first by The New Yorker -- then by the rest of us who over-covered this story.
The New York Times also notes that Obama “will meet with Palestinian leaders in the West Bank during his trip overseas next week… The details of Mr. Obama’s trip had been kept secret, but Palestinian officials said on Monday that he would meet with the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and other leaders in Ramallah on July 23… In Israel, Mr. Obama is expected to meet with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, President Shimon Peres, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and the head of the political opposition, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud Party leader.”
Go South Howard Dean. Where in the world is Howard Dean? "Dean is embarking on a voter registration bus tour he hopes will help push Dixie to the Democrats," the AP says. "Dean said in a telephone interview that he'll focus on winning over people who are struggling economically." Dean starts in Bush's hometown of Crawford, Tex., then heads to Austin, Tex., on Thursday, then Friday in New Orleans and Hattiesburg and Jackson, Miss., then on to Shreveport and Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday. On July 25th, he makes three stops in North Carolina, including Raleigh, Greensboro and Charlotte, the next day he's in Savannah, Macon and Atlanta, Ga. He'll do it again in August in the Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana then take the bus to the Democratic National Convention.
Check out Tim Pawlenty's sitdown interview with NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and ask yourself if he's personally connected with McCain ? Sure sounds like it.
The New York Sun's Gitell makes the case for Romney as McCain's running mate.
Gov. Mark Sanford’s (R-SC) hometown papers cover his CNN flub. His spokesman reacts: “Out in the blogosphere, it seems like a whole lot of overreaction over nothing.” Karl Rove says Romney’s presidential bid failed because of “uneven” performance. But Reuters says his stock is rising. Crist (R-FL) faces more bad press at home as he travels Europe. “As people suffer, they will find Crist's campaigns, travels and love life less and less amusing.” And Crist now says his marriage may not be until next spring .
DEMOCRATS: Hawaii Rep. Neil Abercrombie says Obama may
head to the islands before the convention. "It's very likely that he'll be taking a little R and R before the convention," Abercrombie told the Honolulu Star-Bulletin. "We'll know soon. It's under consideration and a virtual certainty."
REPUBLICANS: The Minneapolis St. Paul Host Committee has
met its $39 million goal in cash and in kind contributions. They are still working on the overall fundraising goal of $58 million, largely for hospitality and corresponding events.
The
ice was removed Monday at Xcel Energy Center, a week before the arena is converted for convention use. RNC staffers got a couple hours beforehand to skate on the home ice of the Minnesota Wild.
Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse ‘The Body’ Ventura jumped off the top turnbuckle out of the political arena, ending a week of speculation -- of his own creation -- that he might run for Senate.
The AP previewed today’s Democratic Senate primary in Georgia. “The race has pitted the CEO of one of Georgia's biggest counties and a former state lawmaker against three political newcomers who jokingly refer to themselves as the ‘three amigos.’ The crowded Democratic primary field lacks a real front-runner and unifying message, and has generated little noticeable enthusiasm from rank-and-file Georgia Democrats. And despite speculation that Barack Obama's history-making presidential quest could drive a large number of Georgia's heavily Democratic black voters to the polls, [Saxby] Chambliss has the power of incumbency and a $4 million in his campaign war chest.”
“Former state Rep. Jim Martin, 62, entered the race late and drew the ire of his opponents when he said he's running because none of the other Democrats could defeat Chambliss. But critics point to his failed 2006 bid for lieutenant governor as evidence that he can't win statewide. Vernon Jones, 46, CEO of DeKalb County, has won praise for preserving greenspace, but critics say his personal foibles over the years have overshadowed his accomplishments. Among them: An incident in 1987 when he allegedly waved a gun at a woman; a 2004 allegation that he pushed a DeKalb County commissioner after a budget dispute; and a 2004 accusation of rape by a woman who did not pursue the case. No charges were filed. Jones calls himself a conservative Democrat, but his votes for President Bush in 2000 and 2004 might rankle some primary voters.”
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
PHILADELPHIA -- As one of John McCain’s earliest and most earnest backers, Tim Pawlenty appears to have grown accustomed to the speculation that he is on the Arizona senator’s short list. He faces “the question” wherever he travels, especially so this weekend as he headed up the National Governors Association’s Centennial conference in Philadelphia. But even he was surprised to see how a simple trip to the barber was interpreted as a political move.
“I’ve had a long and tortured history with my hair,” Pawlenty said in an interview. “But anybody who says I cut my hair because I somehow had a strategy related to the vice presidency should go back and look at how I cut my hair, say, for example, in 2003.”
Then, as Pawlenty started his first term as Minnesota governor, he sported a simple buzz cut. More recently he had what was described a “mullet,” ditched, it was said, for a snazzier, perhaps more vice-presidential cut.
“I’ve had a whole roller coaster ride of hair over the years, some of which I’m not very proud,” the governor added. “But it was very short a few years ago, long before any talk of vice president. And it’s kind of silly that even comes up.”
With that settled, Pawlenty was eager to discuss more important matters, particularly clean energy, a theme he chose for his NGA chairmanship long before oil topped $100 per barrel.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli ON THE RECORD. In East Providence this morning, Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) faced questions about VP following the announcement he’ll join Obama in Iraq. “There are people that are spending a lot of time, one, looking for candidates, and ... trying to promote themselves as candidates," Reed said. "And I'm in neither category.”
"I believe I have the best job in the world , and I'm going to try to keep it,” said Reed, who is also on the ballot for re-election this fall. Reed said he is impressed by Obama’s "very fine strategic view of the world, about what we have to do, what changes we have to make."
On Fox this morning, Mike Huckabee again denied he’s being vetted, while also saying he doubts Obama would pick Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE). “I don't see it. … I think it'd be a disastrous move for Obama. What does it get him? ... I don't see what advantage there is other than symbolic. … There's no passion for Chuck Hagel out there.” On his own VP chances: "I have had no indication that I am [being vetting]. Nobody's called me to say, 'Send me some documents.'"
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) would not say if he’s being vetted. "I'm not commenting on that. I don't talk about my contacts with the Obama campaign on that issue. I'm not lobbying for anything. But obviously, I would do anything I could for him," Richardson said.
ON THE RECORD II, NGA EDITION. I asked “the question” to a few more governors this morning at the final NGA session. “I’ve not submitted any vetting documents and I have not talked to the campaign about that,” said AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (D). “It’s flattering but I think the campaign has a process and I believe the Democratic bench is a very deep one.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro, Caroline Gransee and Alexander Wall Obama has been the focus than McCain . We looked at major national magazines, including independent newsweeklies -- Time , Newsweek , U.S. News & World Report , The Economist , New York Times magazine , and National Journal ; liberal: The Nation ; left-leaning: The New Republic and, yes, The New Yorker (Obama has been three -- two with Clinton); on the right: The National Review and The Weekly Standard ; the wider-audience, less politics-focused: Rolling Stone and Esquire ; and business magazines Fortune and Fast Company . (We looked at Business Week also, but it had zero covers devoted to either candidate.)
We found Obama has been either the subject or part of the focus of 49 of these covers since January. McCain has graced 24. Since June 1, Obama has been on 15 covers; McCain eight.
Michelle Obama has been the subject of Newsweek -- and an unflattering National Review ; Cindy McCain had a similar, more recent Newsweek profile.
Barack Obama has been on Newsweek’s cover six times since the beginning of the year (twice since June 1); McCain has been there four times since January 1 -- both times since June 1. Obama has appeared on Time’s cover four times; McCain has been there just once since the New Year -- a profile back in February. Obama has been on US News’ cover four times; McCain three times. The same numbers for US News hold for The Economist .
Some might use this as an example of “liberal media bias,” but a couple of points to contradict that: (1) Some of this is more of a product of the uncharacteristically competitive and lengthy Democratic primary season. Several covers included Hillary Clinton and Obama -- some even with either split or morphed faces, and (2) Obama outnumbered McCain even in the right-leaning publications. Obama was on five Weekly Standard covers; McCain was on three. The National Review put Obama on the cover four times; McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee hasn’t appeared on it once -- though a recent issue explores who could be his vice presidents. On the left, McCain has been on The Nation’s cover more often: five times to Obama’s four; and (3) The bottom line/newsstand sales are far more important to magazines and what they put on their covers than any ideology.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: During the primaries, Obama appeared on the cover of The New Yorker two other times, both with Clinton. (Thanks, Jenna)]
The full list of covers since January:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
In Phoenix this morning,
McCain answered reporters' questions on several topics -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the New Yorker cover, offshore drilling, and
Obama's New York Times op-ed.
On Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: "I think the actions taken by the Fed on Fannie and Freddie are correct. I hope that the Congress will give them the needed authorization. These are very difficult times and a time where Americans need confidence. And I hope that these measures will restore some of the necessary confidence in our institutions and preserve the ability of Americans to obtain loans in order to buy a home and be able to afford the mortgage payments that they're having to make. It's tough time nowadays. I still hope that we could act on a proposal of mine which would give American homeowners in their primary residence the ability to go down, get a 35-year FHA guaranteed loan in order to be able to make their loan payments."
On the controversial New Yorker cover: "I just say a picture of it on television. I don't -- I think it's totally inappropriate and frankly I understand if Sen. Obama and his supporters would find it offensive."
On Bush lifting the executive order on offshore drilling: "I think it's a very important signal to lift the ban on offshore drilling. I know that Sen. Obama is opposed to lifting the ban on offshore drilling. I believe the states' should continue to decide. I hope that, as he has on several other issues, that Sen. Obama will change his position and now support offshore oil drilling because it's obviously on the short term, it's important for us to have out reserves to -- as we transition to different kinds of energy we need to have sufficient oil reserves off our coast to either reduce or at least cushion the increased costs of oil. If we can show that we have significant oil reserves off our coasts, that will clearly affect the futures market and affect the price of oil I urge Sen. Obama to change his position on this issue."
On Obama's New York Times op-ed : "I think we need to do whatever is necessary and that could entail more troops. We need to do a lot of things in Afghanistan. A lot of this has to do with Pakistan and the safe haven areas that I have visited in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. But the major point here is that Sen. Obama refuses to acknowledge that he was wrong."
From NBC's John Yang and Mark Murray
VIDEO: President Bush lifts an executive ban on offshore drilling, putting pressure on congressional Democrats to back more exploration for oil. Watch his entire statement. Politically, though, the White House and Republicans are trying to build political pressure on Democrats, saying they are blocking the path to lower gas prices. Bush called on Congress last month to lift the ban. They see this as a potential opening against Barack Obama and congressional Democrats. "They haven't even held a single hearing," White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said at her off-camera, on-the-record gaggle. "So we are going to move forward and hopefully that will spur action by the Congress."
Energy analysts say that even if the entire ban was lifted immediately, oil from offshore drilling wouldn't be on the market for ten years or so.
Indeed, the Obama campaign just released a statement making that very point. "If offshore drilling would provide short-term relief at the pump or a long-term strategy for energy independence, it would be worthy of our consideration, regardless of the risks," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said. "But most experts, even within the Bush Administration, concede it would do neither. It would merely prolong the failed energy policies we have seen from Washington for 30 years."
"Sen. Obama believes Americans need real short-term relief, which is why he has proposed a second round of stimulus with energy rebates for working families. And over the long-term, Sen. Obama understands that our national security and the survival of the planet demand a real strategy to break our dependence on foreign oil by developing clean, new sources of energy and by vastly improving the energy efficiency of our cars, trucks and our economy. He is ready to lead such a transformation."
From NBC's Mark Murray Ryan Lizza , in a lengthy profile, traces Obama's evolution as a politician in the rough-and-tumble world of Chicago politics. "Obama likes to discuss his unusual childhood ... and the three years in the nineteen-eighties when he worked as a community organizer in Chicago... But his life in Chicago from 1991 until his victorious Senate campaign is a lacuna in his autobiography. It is also the period that formed him as a politician. Some Obama supporters professed shock when, recently, he abandoned a pledge to stay within the public campaign-finance system if [McCain] agreed to do the same. Preckwinkle’s concern about Obama—that he is a pure political animal—suddenly became more widespread; commentators abruptly stopped using the words 'callow' and 'naïve.'"
VIDEO: Hendrik Hertzberg, senior editor for The New Yorker, defends the cover of the magazine, a drawing of Barack Obama with a turban on his head, his wife holding a gun, a flag on fire and Osama bin Laden's picture on the wall. Meanwhile, the
New Yorker's Hendrik Hertzberg examines all the attention Obama's apparent flip-flops have received, and he argues that much of the coverage is trivial. "Obama, it turns out, is a politician. In this respect, he resembles the forty-three Presidents he hopes to succeed, from the Father of His Country to the wayward son, Alpha George to Omega George. Winning a Presidential election doesn’t require being all things to all of the people all of the time, but it does require being some things to most of the people some of the time. It doesn’t require saying one thing and also saying its opposite, but it does require saying more or less the same thing in ways that are understood in different ways."
Hertzberg also breaks down the flip-flops. He calls the one on Iraq a "marginal tweak"; says the charge of flip-flopping on abortion is "nonexistent;" contends that his change on the Supreme Court's 2nd Amendment decision is a "substantive tweak"; and notes that the FISA and campaign-finance U-turns are significant. He concludes: "Meanwhile, McCain has been busily reversing his views in highly consequential ways. He opposed the Bush tax cuts because they favored the rich; now he supports their eternal extension. He was against offshore oil drilling as not being worth the environmental damage it brings; now he’s for it, and damn the costs. He was against torture, period; now he’s against it unless the C.I.A. does it. He keeps flipping to the wrong flops."
"But he and Obama can both take comfort in what they’re avoiding. If they were clinging to every past position, the flip-flop police would be busting them for stubbornness and rigidity in the face of changing circumstances. Bush all over again! Flip-flops are preferable to cement shoes, especially in summertime."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Economic “ins” and “outs”: With all of the focus on the mortgage market and the stability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it's been surprising how little both Obama and McCain have said about this issue. Neither wants to move markets and get to out in front on this specific issue. So how will both candidates focus on the economy? McCain's "in" on the economy is energy -- the search for more sources (i.e., advocating more oil and gas drilling) is something polls are showing has support. As gas prices go up, voters want the candidates to propose solutions. On energy, even if enviros and economists don't LIKE McCain's solutions, he appears to be offering them. Obama isn't yet. His energy proposals aren't tangible. Meanwhile, Obama's "in" on the economy is twofold. 1) Bush and 2) Bill Clinton. The fact that perception is out there that this is Bush's economy, combined with the fact that the last time voters felt good about the economy a Democrat was in the White House, could give Obama more of a benefit of the doubt with voters on the economy than any new proposal he actually makes. But he is going to have to offer something tangible; not quite a chicken in every pot but at least a chicken wing or two. His proposal for another rebate to American is a start, but why isn’t he selling that proposal more? In fact, you could say that about a lot of Obama's proposals -- he doesn't sell them with the same vigor McCain sells his.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd joins "Morning Joe" to discuss Barack Obama's upcoming foreign trip and his rumored move to the center. ***
The search for ideology : Both candidates seem to have been struggling please to their respective wings. And normally, that should be a good thing for both of them. And yet… McCain's lack of conservative orthodoxy and Obama's move from the left is leading to lots of chatter about where these guys stand. What's interesting about both of them is that each is in a different phase of their ideological journey. When candidates first enter public life, they usually have a more pure ideological streak, and McCain had that in the '80s (he was a conservative's conservative, rarely moving from the party line). Obama's still in the midst of his journey. One can tell he had/has an idealistic/liberal streak, and he's learning what he can or can't get done. McCain's already gotten there; he's already in pragmatic mode; Obama's getting there (too quickly for some). The question is what do voters want: Someone who still is mired in an unrealistic idealism that he'll not learn fast enough and that his first term will be a mess but right now sounds optimistic. Or do they want a pol who is very pragmatic, doesn't have the purity he once had, might even be a bit cynical about can or can't get done, and sometimes comes across too pessimistic. Both McCain and Obama are at different ideological phases in their life and the voters probably want an equal mix of the two (50% idealism and 50% pragmatism) and neither is offering that ratio.
*** Iraq and Afghanistan : Of course, before his upcoming international trip, Obama is trying to offer pragmatism on the subjects of Iraq and Afghanistan. In a New York Times op-ed , which comes a day after nine US soldiers were killed in an attack in Afghanistan, Obama proposes sending two additional brigades to that country. Will that -- as well as the news of those US casualties -- force McCain to talk more about Afghanistan, a subject he discusses far less than Iraq? Obama also writes, “In the 18 months since President Bush announced the surge, our troops have performed heroically in bringing down the level of violence. New tactics have protected the Iraqi population, and the Sunni tribes have rejected Al Qaeda — greatly weakening its effectiveness. But the same factors that led me to oppose the surge still hold true. The strain on our military has grown, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated and we’ve spent nearly $200 billion more in Iraq than we had budgeted. Iraq’s leaders have failed to invest tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues in rebuilding their own country, and they have not reached the political accommodation that was the stated purpose of the surge.”
*** Shiny metal object watch : Last week, Jesse Jackson's surgery suggestion was the shiny metal object press distraction of the week, and it looks like the New Yorker is contributing to this week's edition. Indeed, the satirical cover may not end up serving the purpose the magazine intended. We shall see. We're guessing ObamaNation will unload on the magazine. The campaign already has. (“The New Yorker may think, as one of their staff explained to us, that their cover is a satirical lampoon of the caricature Sen. Obama's right-wing critics have tried to create,” spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement. “But most readers will see it as tasteless and offensive. And we agree.”) Yet this also says something about the magazine industry, which is struggling big time. So this leads to overly provocative covers and given the attention the New Yorker is receiving, probably a lot more magazine will follow suit with similar stunts.
*** Uniting the party : Lost in the leaking of Obama's phone call with a major Hillary donor was the fact that Obama made the call in the first place. Perhaps he should have known anything he said regarding the veep issue would be leaked, and we're guessing calling Bill Clinton a "complication" doesn't heal that wound so easily with the former president. But the message to other bitter Clinton donors is that Obama's not yet ready to write them off and is trying to win folks over.
*** Obama’s companions to Iraq : Over the weekend, Obama announced that Sens. Chuck Hagel (R) and Jack Reed (D) will travel to Iraq and Afghanistan with him. “Look, they’re both experts on foreign policy,” Obama said. “They reflect, I think, a traditional bipartisan wisdom when it comes to foreign policy. Neither of them are ideologues, but try to get the facts right and make a determination about what’s best for U.S. interests and they’re good guys." While Joe Lieberman still gets most of the attention as the biggest political apostate this cycle -- see the front page of today’s New York Times -- Hagel certainly will be an interesting guy to watch over the next couple of weeks… And realize that BOTH are probably on some version of the veep short list. Reed, in particular, strikes as having the personality that Obama may want in his veep -- low-key and knowledgeable.
*** Veepstakes watch : Every day is bringing new tidbits on the veep search: Huckabee is NOT being vetted... Nunn's publicly ready to apply... Check out what Pawlenty said, "he hasn't been asked" to submit papers, but was someone near him asked? Sorry, we love parsing... Romney making a health-care push with WSJ op-ed.
VIDEO: NBC's Tom Brokaw looks back at the life and career of former White House press secretary Tony Snow. ***
Remembering Tony Snow : As NBC's Tom Brokaw said Sunday on "Meet the Press," it's been a tough year for Washington. Tony Snow fought a valiant fight against cancer. His ability to stay optimistic during all this was inspirational. He made the transition from politics to journalism (and back) with grace. He didn't hide who he was, but treated his partisan opponents with class. It's why Snow was so popular. Trust us: Good luck finding a Democrat who has bad things to say about Tony. Sure, he may have been a partisan, but the guy was simply nice. He wasn't someone who participated in the cheap shot culture of our business. Finally, the thing we political junkies loved about Tony was his ability not to take himself too seriously -- whether emcee-ing a comedy show or playing his music -- he showed it was OK to have a good time, even during the most heated times. Washington's going to miss Tony's smarts, class, optimism, and sense of humor.
*** On the trail : McCain, in San Diego, takes his turn speaking to the National Council of La Raza before heading to Albuquerque, NM to raise money. Meanwhile, Obama speaks to the NAACP’s annual convention in Cincinnati, OH.
*** And heads up : Jesse Ventura is expected to announce to CNN’s Larry King tonight whether he’ll run for the US Senate in Minnesota.
Countdown to Dem convention: 42 daysClick here to sign up for First Read emails .
Newsweek poll . Obama had led by 15 last month in the poll. Independents this month appear to have broken for McCain while they had been solidly for Obama. "More than half surveyed - 53% - now say Obama has changed his stance on key policy issues 'to gain political advantage,' while 32% say he has not."
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses today's political headlines including Barack Obama and John McCain courting Latino votes and McCain criticizing Obama on immigration reform. Courting Latinos…"Obama is seeking to solidify his standing among a group that has historically leaned Democratic, whereas McCain is working to convince Latinos that he deserves their support, based on his stance on immigration and experience as a border-state lawmaker," the
Boston Globe writes. "McCain will address La Raza today, the third time in as many weeks the candidates will have courted Latino activists. They spoke last Tuesday in Washington at a conference of the League of United Latin American Citizens, and last month to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.
More: "On Friday, McCain's campaign began running ads appealing to Latinos in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, key states that backed President Bush in 2004 but which Obama hopes to win with a strong Latino turnout. The Democrat is running ads in those states also, but none yet with Latino themes." CONTINUED >>
COLORADO : The state has a ballot init on the Nov ballot that asks voters to define when life begins . "The Human Life Amendment, also known as the personhood amendment, says the words ‘person’ or ‘persons’ in the state constitution should ‘include any human being from the moment of fertilization.’ If voters agreed, legal experts say, it would give fertilized eggs the same legal rights and protections to which people are entitled."
VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses how the campaigns are maneuvering in battleground states like Ohio, Florida and Virginia. FLORIDA : McCain may have a bigger problem in this supposedly Lean GOP state than first imagined. "
Democratic voters have out-registered Republicans by a nearly 7-to-1 margin since January . State totals show Democrats gained a net of 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the GOP -- a shift that could muddle any McCain campaign math that banks on a Florida win to gain the White House. New Democratic registration outnumbered Republicans in six Central Florida counties -- even heavily Republican Seminole County."
But: "In a state with 10.45 million voters, the new figures didn't significantly change the overall ratio of Democrats to Republicans; the state is still roughly 41 percent Democrat and 37 percent registered Republican, with most of the rest No Party Affiliation. That partisan edge has existed for years, but it hasn't delivered many statewide victories to Democrats." Still: "This year's figures are an ominous sign for Republicans. The new voters materialized without any large-scale state party registration drives or even a settled candidate atop the Democratic ticket."
The New York Times magazine asks: Could Little Havana end up tipping to the Dems?
MICHIGAN : McCain opens his state headquarters in Farmington Hills today, andMitt Romney will be on hand .
MISSOURI : A new Research 2000 poll conducted for, among others, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, has Obama sporting a five-point lead, 48%-43%. Perhaps the most surprising crosstab in the poll is Obama's lead among voters 60+ (49%-41%). It appears to explain Obama's lead. Pollster Del Ali tells First Read in response to our inquiry on the 60+ result: "I agree it is a little surprising. One thing we notice is that since 2004 in Missouri there have been shifts in the percentages of the age breakouts which are helping Democrats:CONTINUED >>
At his La Raza speech in San Diego today, McCain will go after Obama today on the issue of immigration. From the excerpts: "I spoke recently at both the NALEO and LULAC conferences, as did Senator Obama. I did not use those occasions to criticize Senator Obama. I would prefer not to do so today. But he suggested in his speeches there and here, that I turned my back on comprehensive reform out of political necessity. I feel I must, as they say, correct the record. At a moment of great difficulty in my campaign, when my critics said it would be political suicide for me to do so, I helped author with Sen. Kennedy comprehensive immigration reform, and fought for its passage. I cast a lot of hard votes, as did the other Republicans and Democrats who joined our bipartisan effort. So did Sen. Kennedy. I took my lumps for it without complaint.
VIDEO: Barack Obama accuses John McCain of backing off comprehensive immigration reform, saying the Republican presidential candidate "abandoned his courageous stance" during the primary season. More: “I did so not just because I believed it was the right thing to do for Hispanic Americans. It was the right thing to do for all Americans. Sen. Obama declined to cast some of those tough votes. He voted for and even sponsored amendments that were intended to kill the legislation, amendments that Sen. Kennedy and I voted against. I never ask for any special privileges from anyone just for having done the right thing. Doing my duty to my country is its own reward. But I do ask for your trust that when I say, I remain committed to fair, practical and comprehensive immigration reform, I mean it. I think I have earned that trust."
Yet critics will likely point to this debate exchange that occurred just days before Super Tuesday.
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Will Obama add a stop in Ireland for domestic politics purposes? "House aides confirmed yesterday that Rep. Richard E. Neal (D-Mass.) is encouraging Obama to add a visit to Ireland to his agenda, holding the nation out as a model of conflict resolution. Appearing there would also serve as a boost for Obama among the tens of millions of Irish in the United States."
VIDEO: Barack Obama is scheduled to visit Jordan, Israel, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. A Race for the White House panel discusses: What does Obama gain from going abroad? The
Washington Post's Broder helps drive the narrative that Obama's moved TOO fast too soon since he's still too unknown. "Obama is making it hard for the Republicans to figure out how to attack him. The risk for him is if he also frustrates the voters who need to understand what makes him tick. They don't elect enigmas to the Oval Office."
MoDo skewers Obama on the decision to throw the kids' interview with Access Hollywood under the bus. "The bad news and the good news is that Obama can be opportunistic. He’s more pragmatic than dogmatic. He’s flexible and a bit of a situationalist. If Bill Clinton weren’t still sulking, he would appreciate Obama’s emulation of his style in ’92, taking a bit from the left and a bit from the right. The self-pitying Bill and the self-flagellating Barack both need to take a cue from the Obama girls. Asked by Ms. Menounos, ‘What could you guys do that Mommy and Daddy would get really mad at?” Malia and Sasha replied in unison: ‘Whining.’”
The New York Daily News is out of the gate with a story on the sure-to-be controversial New Yorker cover depicting Obama in Muslim garb fist-pounding an Afro'd AK-47 donning Michelle in the Oval Office, which happens to have a picture of bin Laden on the wall and an American flag in the fire place. The Daily News' cover: "Not so funny."
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No Dem senator has been to Iraq more than Jack Reed and that's one reason why he's accompanying Obama to Iraq. But don't assume Reed's NOT being considered as Obama's No. 2. As far as his demeanor, he's the exact type of number two Obama would be comfortable with.
Huckabee says no one from McCain's campaign is vetting him . "If you're asking me have I had an official contact from the McCain campaign, no I have not. In all candor, no. No one has said, 'Hey, I need your tax form.' I mean I think if a person has been a candidate, they have already been scrutinized."
VIDEO: Is former presidential candidate John Kerry on Barack Obama's short list for vice president? MSNBC's David Shuster reports. The Boston Globe profiles Sebelius: "Sebelius has never been good at giving The Big Speech. It's not something that has mattered much in Kansas, a rural state with a small political press corps where she has spent 22 years in state government, the last six as governor. But lately, as a top-tier potential running mate for the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, she has been getting a lot of practice in stumping for the senator, making appearances that may help his campaign decide whether she is prepared for the national stage. Though Sebelius is quick to acknowledge her State of the Union response lacked dynamism, she defends its respectful, let's-work-together tone. It is the kind of politics that Obama has preached, but that Sebelius has spent years practicing, in a state where three-quarters of voters are Republican or independent. …
"Sebelius does seem to have a special connection with Obama, whom she first met at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. They share a direct, low-heat style, and political observers say Sebelius is at the very least a top Cabinet prospect if Obama wins."CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
In his speech via satellite to a meeting of the American Federation of Teachers, Barack Obama spoke about strengthening the country's education system by providing more support for teachers and working with them on ways to reward success.
The group announced it was endorsing Obama just before he began speaking and he said “thank you, thank you,” adding, “I am honored to have your endorsement", according to the print pool report.
"It’s time to start treating our teachers properly," Obama said, according to his
prepared remarks.
The senator laid out his plans for residency programs that supply strong teachers to high-need schools, mentoring programs that pair experienced, successful teachers with new ones and service scholarships that will pay for a person's college education if they commit their life to teaching.
He went on to talk about how best to reward teachers.
"When our educators succeed, I won’t just talk about how great they are; I will reward them for it," he said. "Under my plan, districts will be able to give teachers who mentor, or teach in underserved areas, or take on added responsibilities, or learn new skills to serve students better, or consistently excel in the classroom, the salary increase they deserve. And whether it’s the plans AFT helped create in Cincinnati or Chicago, you’ve shown that it is possible to find new ways to increase teacher pay that are developed with teachers, not imposed on them."
The Illinois senator's language on the subject was likely to please teachers unions like AFT and NEA because he spoke about working "with" teachers to find ways to reward them rather than imposing a system "on" them.
Obama hit his Republican rival John McCain for not having a "slim record" on education and for voting against increased funding for No Child Left Behind "to preserve billions in tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans" and against increasing funds for Head Start, Pell Grants, and the hiring of 100,000 new teachers.
He said McCain's "only proposal seems to be recycling tired rhetoric about vouchers and school choice" and he argued for "well-designed public charter schools" but against using public money for private school vouchers, which he equated with throwing our hands up and walking away.
His criticisms were in line with one of his campaign's themes that McCain is out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
SAN DIEGO, CA --
Obama announced a tax credit to help small businesses provide health care, adopting an idea that was part of his former rival
Hillary Clinton’s health-care proposals.
“Today, I’m announcing a new aspect of my plan to provide real relief for small business owners who are crushed by rising costs, an idea that by the way was championed by my friend Hillary Clinton, who’s been leading the way in our battle to insure every American,” he said to applause during his speech Sunday to the National Council of La Raza.
Obama said his plan would make it easier for employers to provide health benefits rather than harder for them as McCain’s would do.
“My plan won’t impose any new burdens on small businesses,” he said. “Instead, we’ll help them not just create new jobs, but good jobs -- jobs with health care; jobs that stay right here in America; the kind of jobs we need in our communities.”
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From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
SAN DIEGO, CA, July 13 – Barack Obama sent condolences to the families of nine soldiers killed in Afghanistan during an assault by militants, during a brief press conference here Sunday after his speech to the National Council of La Raza.
The assault, which also wounded 15 soldiers, was the deadliest attack on US forces in Afghanistan in three years, according to the Associated Press report.
“I want to start off with the sad news of the nine US troops that appear to have been killed in Afghanistan,” Obama told reporters. “Details are still coming in, so I’m not going to comment on exactly what happened. But the main thing I want to communicate is our thoughts and prayers go out to the families of these extraordinary heroes, and we need to make sure that we are providing them to every bit of support that we can.”
The senator also said that Congress should be consulted about any backstop measures to help lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in case they cannot honor their debt, while reiterating his earlier comments that the companies were “critical components” of making sure that mortgages are available and that people can stay in their homes. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are in talks with the two government-sponsored companies.
“Congress has to be closely consulted, particularly if you've got taxpayer money at stake,” the senator said.
Obama declined to comment on a report that said he had called former President Bill Clinton potentially problematic and appeared to bristle when asked for his response to a cartoon on the July 21 cover of the New Yorker magazine that depicts he and his wife Michelle doing a fist bump. Michelle is shown with an afro and an AK-47, while the senator is shown wearing a white turban of sorts. He said he had no response but did not say whether he had seen the cover.
New Yorker cartoons are generally meant as satire.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
With the day a little over halfway done (at least here on the west coast), the McCain campaign has already held two conference calls attacking Obama. The first featured former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin and focused on what the McCain campaign thought Obama would be speaking about in his upcoming speech to the National Council of La Raza.
Obama's remarks had yet to be released at the time of the call, meaning Marin was speculating as to what she assumed his attacks on McCain would be – so the McCain campaign was responding to something yet to be said. Anyway, Marin basically said that Obama would probably unfairly attack McCain's record on immigration reform.
"Probably Senator Obama's going to do the same thing that he has been doing, when he has been meeting with different groups throughout the nation that are Hispanic organizations," Marin said. "And what he's going to say is the same thing – most likely he will say that same thing he's been saying and that is that Senator McCain has changed his mind on immigration reform and nothing could be further from the truth."
Marin said that McCain was "the one senator that basically went against his own party" on immigration reform – although the leader of said party, namely President Bush, also backed the immigration proposal – and she said that fact "needs to be fully recognized."
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From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger LEBANAON, TN -- Cindy McCain came to the Firestone 200 Indy race Saturday to represent her husband, but don’t expect the campaign to win racing fans over by sponsoring a car.
“Our money’s a little tight,” Mrs. McCain told NBC affiliate WSMV Saturday, a day after the Obama campaign refuted reports they were planning to sponsor a car in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. “And as much as I’d love to put our name on a race car, love to do it, we really need to watch where we spend our money.”
McCain, clad in a denim top and with her hair down, rode several laps in the pace car on a wet track, and spoke to drivers at the Nashville Superspeedway before the rain-shortened race. She toured the pit area, greeted members of the armed services, and posed with the guitar that doubles as a trophy for the winner.
But she had little to say about the prospect of one of the cars being emblazoned with her husband’s opponent’s logo. “How he spends is money is how he spends his money,” McCain said of Obama . “Whatever he decides to do is what the Obama campaign does. I think, in my opinion, racing is open to all, everybody, and I hope he enjoys the race if he does it.”
She described herself as a racing fan, saying she and son Jack picked up drift car racing while living in Japan. “We built a drift car together, so we race together,” she told NBC News. “It’s a lot of fun. When you’re a bad driver like me, it’s easy to skid.”
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From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama said he would not be making any promises regarding a withdrawal timetable to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki when he visits the country, because America has “one president at a time." He also spoke about his likely travel companions on the trip, Sens. Chuck Hagel (R) and Jack Reed (D).
And Obama talked about a conversation he had with Jesse Jackson before the civil rights leader's controversial comments came to light; discussed concern about lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; responded to a Wall Street Journal report that his June fundraising numbers were “underwhelming”; and answered questions about whether he should speak at Berlin’s Bradenburg Gate when he visits later this month.
On his upcoming trip to Iraq: “Sen. Hagel and Sen. Reed, I think, may be coming with us,” he said. “They’re both experts on foreign policy. They reflect, I think, a traditional bipartisan wisdom when it comes to foreign policy. Neither of them are ideologues, but try to get the facts right and make a determination about what’s best for US interests and they’re good guys.
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton journeyed to the "center of wonkdom" this afternoon, as he spoke to current and former governors about the challenges America faces and potential solutions to them -- with climate change among the most pressing.
Invoking the founding fathers’ idea that the states were meant to be “laboratories for democracy,” Clinton also spoke of how governors tend to have greater capacity to move “beyond party to policy” and work simply to “close the gap between what is and what ought to be.”
“I used to tell people that I loved going to the Governors Association, because it was a center of wonkdom,” Clinton said in his keynote address to the National Governors Association meeting here. “On occasion when I was the governor of Arkansas, we would be the first state to do something. But I was always just a little prouder if we were the second state to do something, because it meant that the founders’ idea was being honored.”
Clinton referred to presidential politics only in passing, at one point saying he was “really proud” that the Democratic Party's “surviving candidates where an African American and a woman.” Later, while discussing immigration reform, he said he was “very encouraged by what has been said by the apparent nominees of both parties.” Clinton was on hand through the auspices of his presidential foundation, and therefore was prohibited from delving too deeply into politics, a spokesman said.
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From NBC's Mark Murray Obama , Clinton is definitely on the veep list. But there's one obstacle, Obama told her: Bill Clinton.
The Los Angeles Times writes, "Jill Iscol, a faithful Democratic donor who was an ardent supporter of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, said Obama reached out to her because he heard she was unhappy about the way the New York senator had been treated by the Democratic Party and the media. Iscol turned their phone conversation Thursday to the vice presidency -- something the Obama campaign has refused to discuss publicly. She said she told him that Clinton would be his best running mate."
"Obama replied that she is on his list, Iscol recounted, and that it would be a mistake not to have her on such a list. But he also explained that he was thinking through a potential 'complication' -- Bill Clinton. 'He said once you're a president, even if you're a former president, you're always a president,' Iscol said."
From NBC's Mark Murray A new St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV/Research 2000 poll shows Obama leading McCain by five points in the battleground of Missouri, 48%-43%. The survey was taken from July 7-10, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.
But the latest Newsweek poll has Obama up just three points nationally, 44%-41%, which is down from his 15-point lead a month ago, 51%-36%.
