ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



July 2008 - Posts

Obama camp launches fact check site

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 5:03 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC’s Alex Wall and Katie Mulhall
The Obama campaign is launching a Web site to discredit the McCain campaign’s recent attacks on Obama, it announced in a conference call this afternoon. Campaign Manager David Plouffe said that LowRoadExpress.com, a title taken from a New York Times editorial, will focus specifically on documenting and fact checking these attacks.

The Obama campaign already has a page on its Web site dedicated to debunking attacks from viral e-mails and other sources called, “Fight The Smears.” Plouffe clarified that this new site would be solely used to “correct mistruths” coming directly from the McCain campaign. 

VIDEO: A day after Sen. John McCain mocked Sen. Barack Obama's celebrity status in a TV ad, Obama's campaign launched a new web site to rebut attacks and responded with an ad of its own. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

Aides also emphasized that even some Republicans are questioning McCain’s tone and tactics. Susan Eisenhower, president of the Eisenhower Group (and Ike’s granddaughter), added, “These kind of comments and innuendos have no place in a presidential campaign of this importance.”      

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Could Gates stay in next administration?

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 4:31 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube
Despite the fact that in the past he has flatly denied he will stick around for the next administration, today Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was not quite as strong in his denial.

"I am planning and expecting to return to the Pacific Northwest 173 days from today," Gates said with a smile.

When reminded that that is not exactly a denial, Gates said simply, "I'll just leave it at that."

In February of this year, a reporter for the New York Times Magazine asked Gates if he would consider staying on in the next administration, to which he replied, "The circumstances under which I would do that are inconceivable to me."

Later in today's briefing, a reporter asked how Gates is able to come up with the precise number of days before he is scheduled to leave the Pentagon. Gates replied, "I'm paying attention."

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McCain defends ad, agrees with Davis

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 4:11 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy

RACINE, Wisc. -- Just hours after his campaign manager accused Obama of playing the race card, McCain appeared at the Racine Civic Center here and pushed the same message he has been pushing all week: Obama's actions don't match his words.

In his opening remarks, McCain repeated lines he has been using for the past two days, saying Obama is an "impressive speaker" who has excited millions of "young" voters, but it will take more than words to change Washington.

"I have asked Sen. Obama to travel across this country with me and engage in town hall meetings," McCain said. "He has refused to do so, and yesterday he -- in case you missed it -- he wanted to have a duel. I'm not sure exactly what weapons he had in mind, but why don't we just sit down together and have a discussion, because that discussion has got to be with the American people."

This back-and-forth between Obama and McCain has heated up in recent days, especially since the release of the new McCain TV ad dubbing Obama a "celebrity." The media has not had the opportunity to ask the GOP senator about the new ad or about this week's line of attack, but a questioner did the job today by asking if McCain had flip-flopped on his pledge to run a positive campaign.    

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McCain camp: Obama playing race card

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 2:59 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
Earlier this morning, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis released this one-sentence statement: "Barack Obama has played the race card, and he played it from the bottom of the deck. It's divisive, negative, shameful and wrong."

The statement refers to this Obama line yesterday: "So nobody really thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they're going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he's not patriotic enough. He's got a funny name. You know, he doesn't look like all those other Presidents on those dollar bills, you know. He's risky. That's essentially the argument they're making."

VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis about the Republican candidate's new ad.

Obama's remark yesterday seemed innocuous. In fact, it's similar to what he has said many times before. "I know that I don’t look like the Americans who’ve previously spoken in this great city," Obama noted in last week's speech in Berlin.

Perhaps more important, Obama's remarks wouldn't have been seen as playing the race card if Davis hadn't issued this release. After all, the best way to play the race card sometimes is to accuse the other side of playing it.

Could you argue Obama has used the color of his skin as an attempt to garner votes? Yes. Could you also argue that some Republicans have played the race card? Yes. (See here and here and here.) And was it inevitable that race was going to play a role in this campaign? Yes.

But Obama's remarks yesterday seemed like an obvious observation; Obama was very subtle. Davis, though, decided to use a sledgehammer. 

Obama spokesman Bill Burton issued this statement: "This is a race about big challenges -- a slumping economy, a broken foreign policy, and an energy crisis for everyone but the oil companies. Barack Obama in no way believes that the McCain campaign is using race as an issue, but he does believe they're using the same old low-road politics to distract voters from the real issues in this campaign, and those are the issues he'll continue to talk about."

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Obama: That the best you can do?

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 2:31 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli


CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa -- Obama condemned the Paris Hilton ad today as the latest of McCain’s “predictable political attacks” and sought to portray his opponent as looking out for profitable big oil contributors instead of the working class.

“Given the magnitude of our challenges when it comes to energy and health care and jobs and our foreign policy, you’d think that we’d be having a serious debate,” Obama told residents of this flood-ravaged town. “But so far, all we’ve been hearing about is Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. I do have to ask my opponent, is that the best you can come up with? Is that really what this election’s about? Is that what is worthy of the American people?”

Hours after Exxon-Mobil announced a record $12 billion quarterly profit, Obama whacked the oil industry. “While big oil is making record profits,” he said, “you’re paying record prices at the pump, and our economy is leaving working people behind.”

Obama defended his opposition to expanded offshore oil drilling, saying it wouldn’t provide “short-term relief or medium-term relief or, in fact, long-term relief.”

“Now, although it won’t save you dollars at the pump, I have to say that it has helped raise campaign dollars,” he added. “Because last month, Senator McCain raised more than a million dollars from -- guess who? -- oil and gas company executives and employees – most of whom, most of these campaign contributions came after he went to Houston to meet with a bunch of oil executives and announce that he was in favor of offshore drilling. That’s not a strategy designed to end our energy crisis, it’s a strategy designed to get politicians through an election.”

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McCain says he's 'proud' of new TV ad

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 2:13 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy


RACINE, WI -- McCain was just asked at his town hall here about his controversial TV ad comparing Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

"All I can say is that we are proud of that commercial," he answered. "We think Americans need to know that I believe that we should base this campaign on what we can do for Americans here at home and how we can make America safe and prosperous. And that is the theme of our campaign."

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Lauren Appelbaum provides the full exchange:
Woman asking question: "First of all, Sen. McCain, I want to commend you on your service for our country. But earlier this year in April, you made comments about the mudslinging and how it had been affecting the other campaigns and how you didn't want to do that. But recently, especially last week when Obama went to Europe, it seems like there were a lot of campaign ads that you put out that were doing that. And the one yesterday comparing him to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, I was like, "OK." So it seems like to Americans like me and other people that you may have flip-flopped on what you said earlier. And what is your response to that?"

McCain: "First of all, let me say there are differences, and we are drawing those differences. And I said earlier, I admire his campaign. But what we are talking about here is substance and not style. And what we are talking about is who has an agenda for the future of America."

"Campaigns are tough," he added, "but I'm proud of the campaign that we have run. I'm proud of the issues that we have been trying to address with the American people. And again, I would hope that Sen. Obama would join me so we could discuss this as he said he wanted to quote duel over taxes, I believe yesterday. So, all I can say is that we are proud of that commercial. We think Americans need to know that I believe that we should base this campaign on what we can do for Americans here at home and how we can make America safe and prosperous. And that is the theme of our campaign."

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Graham and Lieberman defend ad

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 12:58 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , , , ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Andrea Mitchell
Responding to criticism of McCain's recent TV ad depicting Obama as celebrity without substance, two of McCain's key Senate allies fired back in an unrelated news conference.

GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said the whole idea of the ad was "fame without portfolio." "This is a hysteria around a personality that's attractive, but when you look under the hood there's not a whole lot there," Graham told reporters. "So fame without portfolio is sort of fashionable. But leadership without experience is dangerous."

VIDEO: A TV ad released by John McCain's campaign labels Barack Obama an an empty celebrity to be compared with Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Ads from Obama have hit back. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports.

The "hysteria" Graham referenced was about Obama's recent European trip. "If you embark upon a world tour and you decided to make a campaign speech in a foreign country in front of 200,000 Germans and you act like you're already president, people may notice."

Graham then suggested that Obama may be getting too big for his britches. "He said something yesterday, basically, that he embodies everything good about America. Well, it's good to have self confidence, but you can maybe go too far."

Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Lieberman took a different tack, saying the ad simply compares the two candidates in a "creative" way and people should lighten up. "To some extent the appearance of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears -- people complain about it -- they should just relax and enjoy it," he said.  The idea is to draw people into the ad. The point of the ad is really quite strong: Who's ready to lead America?"

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Kaine continues to get VP questions

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 12:01 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann

RICHMOND, VA -- During an hour-long program on Richmond talk-radio station WRVA, Gov. Tim Kaine continued to offer few hints about his status as a reportedly "serious" contender for the vice presidency. The latest mini-nugget: He says that he has NOT been approached to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

"I haven't been contacted about that," he said when asked if he'd be speaking in Denver. "If they want me to, I'd be glad to."

VIDEO: While not making "categorical declarations," Gov. Tim Kaine says he's focused on running the state of Virginia and spending the day with his daughter, not talking to Barack Obama about a possible V.P. candidacy.

Kaine was introduced by the station's producers with a tongue-in-cheek promo: "Ask the Future Possible Vice President." But he diligently continued the refrain that he does not discuss his conversations with Obama's team. 
 
"I'm not going to make a case for myself for VP, because I haven't ever asked to be considered," he told a call-in questioner who asked about his foreign policy qualifications as a veep. But he quickly added, "You're right: I'm an economy and education guy. That's what governors do."
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Wallace vs. Gibbs

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 11:32 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
On MSNBC's Morning Joe, McCain spokeswoman Nicolle Wallace and Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs passive (and not so passive) aggressively sparred this morning over the "Celeb" ad.

After Wallace defended the campaign calling Obama "fussy" and talked about celebrity, the food fight began:

VIDEO: McCain strategist Nicolle Wallace and Obama adviser Robert Gibbs discuss the newest McCain ad, which labels Obama "The biggest celebrity in the world."

GIBBS: You know the last time I saw Britney Spears on stage with a politician, the guy looked a lot like John McCain, because that's who it was. It was John McCain. ... We'll let them take the low road; it's a place they feel very comfortable in.

On why Obama isn't doing any town halls with McCain, Gibbs insisted Obama camp did offer to do town halls (two as far as we know. McCain's campaign asked for 10. So far, they have done zero together.)

GIBBS: ...We did; we offered... Maybe Nicolle can figure out...

WALLACE [smiling]: We would love that Robert; we would just love that.
 
GIBBS [laughing]: Well, then you know, maybe you should have Rick dig up the letter we sent, saying we would be glad to do this. ["Rick" is Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager.] I mean, this is silly. I think this ad is silly. And I think what we have here is very serious times...

Joe Scarborough raised if Gibbs' statement meant that Obama would agree to 10 town hall meetings and sent a letter saying so.

CONTINUED >>

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Pelosi praises McCain -- sort of

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 11:29 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , , , ,

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is gladly accepting praise from McCain -- but to an extent.

She was asked at the end of her weekly on-camera session with reporters about McCain's reported praise for her. “I respect Speaker Pelosi. I think she's one of the great American success stories," McCain told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Pelosi says that she and McCain "have worked wonderfully together" in the past on such issues as campaign finance reform (she had to bring THAT up) and global warming.

"I look forward to continue working with him in the United States Senate," she concluded to laughter.

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First thoughts: Britney-Paris day after

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:22 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The day after Britney-Paris: Today might be a day when John McCain ought to simply forget to read the news clippings, turn off the cable TV, and not browse The Google. The editorials that are blasting his new Britney-Paris ad and other attacks against Obama are piling up. (An example from the St. Pete Times: “The self-described ‘happy warrior' in the 2000 presidential campaign has turned sour in 2008, and the candor and straight talk that once made him such an attractive candidate are rapidly disappearing.”) And so are the blind quotes from Republican strategists questioning his campaign’s tactics. (See the next paragraph.) The danger here for McCain is that, by all accounts, he’s more sensitive to criticism by the media and fellow colleagues than your average Republican; as someone who’s been praised by the press more often than not, he cares what the New York Times has to say. So today and tomorrow, McCain’s body language will be interesting to watch. But since his campaign has made the decision to go after Obama -- it has now produced four consecutive negative ads against the Democrat -- the best course for McCain may simply be to put on the blinders and move forward. The question is whether McCain has the self-discipline to ignore the noise and march forward and accept this strategy as the winning one. 

VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel talks about John McCain's new attack ad targeting Barack Obama and comparing him to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

*** When ex-aides attack: While it’s too soon to know whether McCain’s Paris-Britney ad will work, it’s clear that some Republicans and ex-McCain aides weren’t too impressed. “Their increasing bitterness reflects a campaign that is more about some sort of therapeutic frustration venting for the staff than any coherent strategy to elect McCain,” one GOPer told the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza. “It's unprofessional to the core.” Meanwhile, ex-McCain strategist John Weaver called the ad “childish” and “tomfoolery.” "John's been a celebrity ever since he was shot down," Weaver said to the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder. "Whatever that means. And I recall Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush going overseas and all those waving American flags." Indeed, what’s perhaps most interesting to us are all the Republicans and ex-McCain aides who have been openly critical of the campaign. In presidential contests, Republicans are normally unaccustomed to this kind of intra-party dissent and criticism. But as we found with the Kerry campaign in ’04 and the Team Hillary in ’08, it doesn’t necessarily help when there are so many people who like to talk. No matter how disgruntled the McCain campaign says these folks are, these ex-McCainiacs have an impressive track record and know how to give a good quote…

*** What’s he for? Here’s an additional thought from NBC’s David Gregory, host of MSNBC’s Race for the White House, from his top headline last night: "'What's he FOR?' That was Obama's back of the hand for McCain's stepped up efforts to go negative -- big time -- against the Illinois senator. It's said that campaigns are often about choices. McCain, who can depend on his biography, now seems intent on creating a biography for his opponent, one that borrows from themes raised successfully by President Bush against John Kerry in 2004. Kerry seemed French (remember?); didn't support the troops (though he was a decorated Vietnam veteran); and was weak and a politician first. A McCain source recently told me that the Arizona senator would only attack about something if he believes it. That tells us there is something about Obama McCain has really come to dislike. Or it means making the campaign about Obama is the only way to win. It should also be pointed out that embedded in what some may condemn as baseless negative advertising are serious questions for debate in this campaign about Obama's judgment and plans. It's ironic, however, that McCain -- whose political career has been defined by his biography -- has taken to playing on his opponent’s turf. A big challenge for McCain is this: Obama isn't alone; there are Republican allies of McCain's who urge him to spend time spelling out what he is for." The campaign will argue that between the debates and McCain's convention speech, he'll have a chance to spell out what he's for ... but will that be enough?
 
*** Battleground update: A new round of Quinnipiac polls shows Obama leading in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- but McCain gaining ground on him. In Florida, Obama is up by two points (46%-44%); a month ago, the lead was four points (47%-43%). In Ohio, Obama is also up two (46%-44%); a month ago, he was up six (48%-42%). And in Pennsylvania, Obama is up seven points (49%-42%); a month ago, the lead was 12 (52%-40%). The good news for McCain is that he’s gaining ground in these crucial states. The bad news for him is that both Florida and Ohio are absolute must-wins for him. That’s not the case for Obama. These numbers in these three states match what we've heard on the ground from campaign types. Basically, Obama has moved Florida from Lean McCain two months ago to toss-up; has held his own in Ohio (though some might argue his lead is a bit bigger than Q shows); and continues to hang on to this high single-digit lead in Pennsylvania, which at some point has to frustrate the McCain campaign because it's starting to make GOPers wonder if the Keystone state is the party's new white whale. 

*** Are Obama’s North Carolina chances for real? Folks, it’s not every day that we get a press release from the RNC announcing a new state director for just one state -- North Carolina. But that’s what we found in our email inbox this morning. This is the first acknowledgment from Republicans that they are now taking the Tar Heel State seriously.

VIDEO: President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have agreed to pursue a "general time horizon" for withdrawal from Iraq, even as Maliki announces support for Barack Obama's Iraq proposal. NBC's Patty Culhane reports.

*** President Bush makes some news: From the president’s statement this morning: “Beginning tomorrow, troops deploying to Iraq will serve 12-month tours instead of 15-month tours… We're also making progress in our discussion with Prime Minister Maliki's government on a strategic framework agreement. This agreement will serve as the foundation for America's presence in Iraq once the United Nations resolution authorizing the multinational forces there expires on December the 31st.”

*** All about the brand: What's the most damaging thing for Senate Republicans out of the Ted Stevens news? He's become the third sitting GOP senator in the last two years who has had trouble with the law. The other two: David Vitter and Larry Craig. The Rule of Three in this case is not something the GOP could use right now. As conservative activist Tony Perkins put it in his newsletter yesterday regarding Stevens: "As Republicans try to claw their way back to respectability before an election cycle that could plunge them even deeper into the congressional minority, they're instead pushed back into the familiar role of damage control. The news of Stevens' indictment can undo any progress the party has made in rebuilding voters' trust. Instead of purging corruption, Stevens' debacle may do even more damage to the Republican brand." Will Senate Dems be able to use this GOP troika to attack the party and whittle away at its brand in the same way the House Dems hurt the House GOP in '06 on this front?

*** Meet Bobby Jindal: When sworn in as governor, he became the youngest sitting governor at age 36… Jindal, a Rhodes Scholar, turned around the failing Louisiana public health system when he was in his 20s… Named Piyush by a family of Indian descent, but insisted on being called Bobby, after Bobby from The Brady Bunch (we're not kidding)… Converted to Catholicism at age 18… Wrote of witnessing an exorcism of a friend who had cancer -- and then afterward, he wrote, "surgeons found no traces of cancerous cells." Attacks on Jindal using religion backfired on Democrats in Louisiana, but how would this play on a national stage?… Recently Jindal got in legislative hot water before he reversed course and vetoed a legislative pay raise…. But likely the biggest obstacle to Jindal being picked is the most obvious one -- he's been governor for less than a year and he's so young, he could be McCain's grandson.
 
*** On the trail: McCain holds a town hall in Racine, WI, while Obama holds his own economic town hall in Cedar Rapids, IA. Also, Hillary Clinton addresses AFSCME -- the government employees union that backed her in the Democratic primaries -- in San Francisco; Obama speaks to the union via satellite.
 
Countdown to Dem convention: 25 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 96 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 173 days
 
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McCain vs. Obama: That Britney-Paris ad

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:18 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

The New York Times front-pages McCain’s new ad against Obama. “After spending much of the summer searching for an effective line of attack against Senator Barack Obama, Senator John McCain is beginning a newly aggressive campaign to define Mr. Obama as arrogant, out of touch and unprepared for the presidency. On Wednesday alone, the McCain campaign released a new advertisement suggesting -- and not in a good way -- that Mr. Obama was a celebrity along the lines of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Republicans tried to portray Mr. Obama as a candidate who believed the race was all about him, relying on what Democrats said was a completely inaccurate quotation.”

VIDEO: Sen. John McCain's new campaign ad featuring Paris Hilton and Britney Spears attacks Sen. Barack Obama for being a celebrity instead of a leader. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.

More: “Mr. McCain’s more focused assault comes after one of his worst weeks of the general election campaign, when he seemed to fumble for a consistent, overarching critique of Mr. Obama, who winged around the Middle East and Europe. Mr. McCain’s advisers continue to look for ways to bring more discipline to his message, and are being urged by some supporters to cut back the frequency of his question-and-answer sessions with reporters, a staple of his campaign but one that occasionally yields unscripted moments, misstatements and off-the-cuff pronouncements that divert attention from the themes he is trying to promote. The intensity of the recent drive -- which has included some assertions from the McCain campaign that have been widely dismissed as misleading -- has surprised even some allies of Mr. McCain, who has frequently spoken about the need for civility in politics.” 

The Washington Post ties the new McCain ad to criticisms that he doesn’t always stick to the script. “As Election Day nears, McCain's campaign is adopting the aggressive, take-no-prisoners style of Karl Rove, the GOP operative who engineered victories for President Bush. The campaign continued the attack Wednesday with a sarcastic television ad deriding Obama as a "celebrity," part of an intensifying effort to cast him as an elitist.”

“But the sharp-edged approach is being orchestrated for an unpredictable candidate who often chafes at delivering the campaign's message of the day. It is that freewheeling style that has made him popular with voters and cemented his reputation for candor and straight talk… The result is a presidential campaign that sometimes rolls between serious policy discussions about the nation's future and gotcha politics aimed at undermining his opponent's character. McCain himself is often caught in the middle, proclaiming his commitment to the former while participating in the latter.” 

Tom Edsall, writing on Huffington Post, writes, "Facing gale-force anti-Republican headwinds, John McCain must cut Barack Obama down to size in order to be competitive. But McCain's track record using negative ads has been and may still be problematic -- if not disastrous." More: "For McCain, negative ads have by and large been poorly conceived and minimally effective. In 2000, his decision to go negative against George W. Bush was a crucial factor in McCain's eventual defeat." In South Carolina, after Bush allies accused McCain of fathering a black baby, "McCain, who is known for his temper, took the Bush bait, becoming visibly enraged as he roamed the state and produced a television commercial in which he personally accused Bush of twisting 'the truth like Clinton.' ... By the standards of the GOP in South Carolina, John McCain had crossed over into the nether world. In a matter of a week, the Arizona Senator's bid collapsed."
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Battlegrounds: More new polls…

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll has Obama leading McCain by seven points nationally among registered voters, 51%-44%.

Meanwhile, the latest round of Quinnipiac battleground polls show Obama up in Pennsylvania (49%-42%) and statistically tied but leading in Ohio (46%-44%) and Florida (46%-44%). Though Obama still leads, the polls are closer than a month ago with some movement apparent with independents.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at new polls that show John McCain gaining on Barack Obama in swing states and the "ad wars" going on between the candidates.

Looking at Quinnipiac’s numbers, the Wall Street Journal notes Obama's losses in demographic groups: "Looking at changes across all four states, independent voters inspired the biggest shift. Obama saw a 26 percentage point loss from June to July, whereas McCain saw a 22 point gain. Similarly, Obama lost 23 points with white males and 22 points with young voters. McCain gained 23 points and 11 points with the respective demographic groups."

MISSOURI: The Washington Post takes a look at Obama's attempts to win the Show Me State. "With a town hall meeting and rally in Springfield, another in Rolla, a stop in Lebanon, and a rainy barbecue here, Obama is trying to mimic Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill's winning game plan from 2006 and get beyond more traditional strategies that left Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) narrow losers in the Show-Me State. Democrats have traditionally counted on huge margins in St. Louis and Kansas City to counter GOP strength in the rest of the state, and it hasn't worked."

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McCain: The Ron Paul danger

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

"In the libertarian-leaning West, where Paul's message of distrust of the federal government and ardent individualism played particularly well, there is talk of Republicans straying from McCain," the AP writes. "Libertarian candidate Bob Barr has emerged as a favorite alternative for Paul activists, followed by Constitutional Party candidate Chuck Baldwin. Even if the numbers of such dissenters are small, in tight contests in key Western states they could spoil McCain's chances, experts say."
 

VIDEO: Just hours after returning from his trip overseas, Barack Obama faced a string of attacks from John McCain, who accused him of calling for a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq for political gain. NBC's Kevin Corke reports.

At his fundraiser in Kansas City yesterday, McCain talked about Social Security and his opponent’s lack of military service, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy points out. "I am opposed to raising taxes,” the Arizona senator said. “Sen. Obama wants to raise your taxes. He wants to raise your taxes and if any negotiation I might have when I go in my position will be that I am opposed to raising taxes, but we have to work together to save Social Security."

And: "What puzzled me was when Sen. Obama announced his policy concerning Iraq before he left, after not having been there in more than 900 days. And he got a briefing from Gen. Petraeus, and Gen. Petraeus told him that his policy of setting a date for withdrawal was dangerous for America. And the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on television, our highest-ranking military officer, said it would be a dangerous course. Now for somebody who's had no military experience whatsoever, I would strongly recommend that Sen. Obama at least listen, at least listen to our military leaders and not devise a policy before you leave."

MoveOn and the Sierra Club will begin airing two new TV ads that hit McCain on the issue of energy. A MoveOn spokesman tells First Read that both ad buys are in the six figures.

MoveOn’s ad features a testimonial from a father: “Sen. McCain, you let me and my kids down. From the very beginning, I told them, 'This is a principled guy.' So when you said you were going to help me drive affordably again, I believed you. And then your idea is to do offshore drilling, which I find out won't produce any oil for 10 years…” 

The Sierra Club’s ad: “Big Oil companies have our economy and politics in a choke hold. They are getting billions from the government...raking in record profits...while we pay $4 a gallon for gas. John McCain’s answer? Another $4 billion giveaway to Big Oil.”

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Obama: An un-Paris Hilton day

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

Yesterday was a decidedly un-Paris Hilton day for Obama, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli notes. As if by design, the candidate’s first day back on the campaign trail in weeks was all about showcasing the Democratic nominee as just the opposite of what the John McCain ad sought to portray. Instead of the rock star attracting hundreds of thousands abroad, Obama was speaking in small venues in ruby-red “Missoura,” talking about high gas prices, and trying some “feel your pain” shoulder pats and hugs.

VIDEO: TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to Nicolle Wallace, an aide for John McCain, and Robert Gibbs, a spokesman for Barack Obama, about a McCain ad that compares Obama to celebrities.

He capped it off by dishing out burgers and franks to dozens of people in Union, where a few hundred huddled under a canopy to see the Democrat. Obama even sent his staff scrambling to keep up as he paraded around the venue to shake as many hands as he could, without so much as a poncho to keep him dry. “Since they don’t have any new ideas the only strategy they’ve got in this election is to try to scare you about me,” Obama said earlier, mentioning a “funny name,” a different look and “nasty emails.”

“You know, the latest one they’ve got me in an ad with Paris Hilton.” He added,  “You know…never met the woman.”
 
It’s a tact we can expect to see him keep up today, especially as he visits Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He’ll meet with some families who were impacted by the recent flooding, which actually prompted him to cancel a visit last month. He’s also going to keep up his focus on the economy, with the campaign signaling new language on the energy debate between the candidates.

For process junkies, AP's Pickler and Fournier have the story of the day -- examining the microtargeting efforts of the Obama campaign. Among the highlights: "Those 75,000 Democrats who will pack a football stadium for Barack Obama's convention speech won't be there just to whoop and holler on television. They'll form the world's largest phone bank to boost voter registration -- fired-up supporters using computer targeting the campaign has spent months putting together."

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Veepstakes: Is the list getting longer?

Posted: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:11 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

Compiled by NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger and Carrie Dann
DEMOCRATS: Has Obama’s short list gotten longer? The Fix says his “vice presidential vetting process has moved into a new stage in which a larger than previously reported group of candidates is being exposed to a ‘deeper dig’ into their backgrounds -- in the words of a source familiar with the process.” It may mean no decision is imminent. And is Obama meeting again with chief vetter Eric Holder? The Houston Chronicle reports that Holder was in Houston Wednesday for fundraisers. That’s where Obama will be Thursday for a finance event. 
 

VIDEO: Time is running low for Barack Obama and John McCain to pick their running mates. NBC's David Gregory and Chuck Todd weigh in on the possible short lists. Also interviewed is analyst Mike Murphy.

A group focused on pressuring Obama to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate is shutting down. “Because it seems that Senator Obama has made his decision to offer the slot on the ticket to another candidate, we believe that continuing to ask him to pick Hillary is no longer helpful to our party’s chances of winning in November,” organizers of VoteBoth, Sam Arora and Adam Parkhomenko, are telling supporters in an email this morning. And, by the way, While Clinton has paid off 15 colleges and universities for her primary campaign, she still owes more than $150,000 for events at schools across the country. 
 
The Republican majority leader of the Virginia House of Delegates reportedly sent an email to supporters Monday, urging them to remind the media that Gov. Tim Kaine does not enjoy strong popularity in the state. “Governor Kaine is popular only if you define 'popular' as having a job approval rating lower than 50%,” Griffith wrote in the message to his caucus obtained by Politico.  
 
Talking to Charlie Rose (which the gov's camp says was scheduled before the veep feeding frenzy started), Kaine addressed concerns among the pro-choice community that the Roman Catholic governor would support limits on abortion rights. Although he is personally pro-life, he said he does not advocate for the overturn of Roe v. Wade. “Roe vs. Wade is ultimately about saying that there is a realm of personal liberty for people to make this decision," he said.  
 
What does Virginia noteable quoatable Larry Sabato think?  “If Obama and Kaine win, it could be the last victory the Democrats in Virginia have for a while,” says the UVA prof., predicting disastrous consequences for state Dems should the governor relinquish his seat.  
 
REPUBLICANS: Gov. Tim Pawlenty is on to us: “Lately, I've just stopped talking about it because I get asked about it frequently and if I say a word different than I said last time, it just fuels another round (of speculation).” Pawlenty is in Washington Thursday to speak at a press conference for Achieve, Inc., touting a new report on improving academic standards. Pawlenty serves as vice chair of the bi-partisan, nonprofit group. He told state lawmakers in Chicago Wednesday to take a Sam’s Club approach to government. “I want to get the best value for my money,” he said. “That’s missing in government in dramatic, dramatic measurement.”

Who would be worse, Kaine or Romney? Dan Schnur says both men “exacerbate the greatest weaknesses of Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama, respectively, rather than addressing them.” 

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Obama camp goes up with response ad

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 7:07 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , , ,

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign is responding to McCain's Britney-Paris-Obama ad with its own TV advertisement -- which calls McCain's attack "the same old politics," links McCain to Bush, and points out that news organization and fact-checkers have found falsehoods in past McCain ads.

The script:
Announcer: He's practicing the politics of the past. 
John McCain.  His attacks on Barack Obama:
"not true"
"false"
"baloney"
"the low road"
"baseless." 
John McCain. Same old politics.  Same failed policies.   
Barack Obama supports a $1,000 middle class tax cut.
An energy plan that takes on oil companies, develops alternative fuels, and breaks the grip of foreign oil.
That's change we can believe in.
Obama: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

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Obama says McCain is too negative

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 6:41 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli


ROLLA, MO -- Obama said at a town hall here today that McCain is running a campaign based on nothing more than fear and negative attacks.

“He’s spending an awful lot of time talking about me,” Obama told a crowd of 1,200. “I haven’t seen an ad yet where he talks about what he’s going to do. And the reason is because those folks know they don’t have any good answers. They know they’ve had their turn over the last eight years and made a mess of things... And so the only way they figure that they're going to win the election is if they make you scared of me. So what they’re saying is, 'Well we know we’re not very good, but you can’t risk electing Obama. You know, he’s new. He doesn’t look like the other presidents on the currency.'"

VIDEO: John McCain's negativity towards Barack Obama struck again in his latest ad, which mocks the Democratic presidential candidate's worldwide celebrity.

Earlier, speaking at a restaurant in the town of Lebanon, Obama responded directly to a question about McCain’s new television ad by asking reporters to turn the tables. “He doesn’t seem to have anything to say very positive about himself,” Obama said. “You need to ask John McCain what he’s for and not just what he’s against.”

The comments came as Obama continued his focus on energy and the economy. He told the crowd in Rolla that while offshore drilling may poll well, President Bush and McCain are selling the American people a “bill of goods” that offers no real relief to the current crisis. “If I thought that the only way to solve the energy crisis was to go ahead and drill some more, I’d be all for it,” Obama said. “We can work to increase supplies, but the truth of the matter is that we have got to have a much bolder energy policy.”

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Veep watch PM

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 5:47 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger

THE SHORT LIST. Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine tells NBC/NJ that he doesn't "have any idea about where the process is" for the selection of the vice presidential nominee, and that he has not spoken to Sen. Barack Obama “for a number of weeks, since before his trip.” He also said the speculation is “kinda fun.”

The latest in the pros and cons of  former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney: He could help Republicans in the West. He knows economics, has been vetted, and can throw and take a punch. 

VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel takes a look at potential running mates for Barack Obama and John McCain, including Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., and former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Conservative Catholic group Fidelis is going after Obama for possibly choosing a pro-abortion rights Catholic running mate -- Kaine or Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius: They “would represent a major insult to Catholic voters who are still evaluating his candidacy ... The choice of a pro-abortion Catholic for vice president would deal a major blow to any efforts by the Obama campaign to reach out to Catholic voters," said Brian Burch, president of the group. 

ON THE RECORD. The Obama campaign announced Kathleen McGlynn, who was Sen. John Edwards’ presidential campaign chief of staff, will serve as deputy chief of staff for the forthcoming vice presidential candidate. And David Wade, who was spokesman for John Kerry in his 2004 presidential run, will be the vice president’s traveling spokesman.
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The Stevens fallout begins

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 3:49 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The political fallout over Sen. Ted Stevens' (R-AK) indictment started today on Capitol Hill. His Republican colleagues weren't exactly throwing him under the bus, but they didn't push him out of its way either as Stevens faces a tough reelection in November.   

Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, declined to endorse Stevens' campaign for reelection. The NRSC describes itself on it's Web site as "the only political committee solely dedicated to electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate."

VIDEO: Guest host Mike Barnicle talks about the ten U.S. senators indicted while in office in the Hardball Big Number.

Ensign, instead of endorsing the longest serving Senate Republican in history, said he wanted to wait for the results of Alaska's Republican primary on August 26th. Stevens faces six opponents. 

"The candidates are on the ballot right now, and we're going to wait to see how that whole thing plays out," Ensign said.

"Do you still endorse Sen. Stevens?" a reporter asked Ensign. 

"I've said exactly what I was going to say," Ensign responded. "We'll wait and see how the process plays out."

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Axelrod responds to McCain TV ad

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 3:13 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , , ,

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Obama senior strategist David Axelrod called into the 1:00 pm MSNBC hour to respond to McCain's latest TV ad. Having watched McCain campaign policy adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer defend it, Axelrod called in and said the latest ad is both "sophomoric" and "negative." 

VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with John McCain's policy advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer about a new ad by the Republican presidential candidate that says Barack Obama is the biggest celebrity, but he is not ready to lead.

When asked about the ad's attempt to link Obama with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, Axelrod replied, "I think the most important reference in the ad was Britney Spears, because as it said in the [Obama campaign] statement, she has that song in a paraphrase 'Oops, he did it again!' Sen. McCain has been criticized in papers all over the country -- Factcheck.org -- for the tactics he has taken in the last several weeks, and the ads that he has run including one that blames Barack Obama for the energy crisis and so on." 

He continued, "And in the words of USA Today yesterday, it's baloney! And the thing that is sad about it is that Sen. McCain entered this campaign as someone who was going to elevate the debate and talk about the future, and that is the reputation he had. And instead, we get some very familiar tactics. And it makes you wonder who is running the campaign, who is making the decisions, who is behind all of this. This isn't the John McCain we expect."

When told the McCain campaign's charge that it was the Obama camp who ran the first negative ad of the general election -- which was a response to an RNC TV ad hitting Obama -- Axelrod added: "The real point is we have got serious, serious challenges facing this country, including a genuine energy crisis. And we ought to have a real discussion about it. Instead, we get sophomoric, negative ads that are completely false. There are things in that ad that are fundamentally wrong in terms of what Sen. Obama's position is."

*** UPDATE *** Obama just responded outside of Bell's Restaurant in Lebanon, MO: "You know, I don’t pay attention to John McCain’s ads, although I do notice he doesn’t seem to have anything to say very positive about himself. He seems to only be talking about me... You need to ask John McCain what he’s for and not just what he’s against."

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Republicans giving back Stevens money

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 2:59 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Doug Adams
In Alaska, they call it "Stevens' money" -- the billions in federal grants, contracts and largesse that Sen. Ted Stevens has steered to Alaska over the last 40 years. But "Stevens' money" on Capitol Hill isn't so popular anymore apparently.

VIDEO: U.S. Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska has been indicted on seven felony counts for allegedly failing to disclose gifts he received from an oil services company. NBC's Pete Williams reports.

In a sign that his support within the party may be slipping, at least four GOP senators in tough re-election campaigns have announced they will give away political contributions made by Stevens' political action committee (PAC).

Through his "Northern Lights" PAC, Stevens has made more than $340,000 in campaign contributions this campaign cycle, including donations to every Republican senator up for reelection in 2008. He's given $5,000 to John McCain's campaign for president ... and $10,000 to his fellow embattled Alaskan, Rep. Don Young.

JOHN SUNUNU (R-NH) -- Yesterday, Sununu's campaign, locked in a tough re-election battle with former NH governor Jeanne Shaheeen, announced it would donate to charity the $10,000 it received from Stevens PAC. Previously it has given away other contributions it received from convicted VECO employees in 2007.

ELIZABETH DOLE (R-NC) -- Dole's campaign was the first to announce yesterday afternoon it would donate $10,000 that it received from Northern Lights PAC to charity -- the Soc. of St. Andrew, a Christian ministry dedicated to feeding America's hungry. Dole is battling a well funded Democratic opponent -- Kay Hagan.

GORDON SMITH (R-OR) -- Smith's campaign announced yesterday it would donate to charity the $10,000 it received from Steven's leadership PAC. Smith has received nearly $40,000 from Stevens in contributions over the years, and Smith's PAC has contributed to Stevens' re-election campaign.

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Repeating fact-checked lines

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 2:47 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain
and his campaign repeated at least two lines of attack against Obama, which when first said in early July, were called "bogus," "wrong," "inflated" and "misleading" by independent fact checkers.

At his town hall today, McCain repeated that Obama wants to raise taxes on those making as little as $32,000 a year and in his campaign's response to Obama's event in Springfield, Mo., today, repeated that "...Obama’s bad judgment led him to vote in support of higher taxes 94 times...."

Of the $32,000 point, FactCheck.org called that "bogus" and "wrong." "The McCain campaign falsely claims that Obama voted to raise income taxes on individuals earning "as little as $32,000 per year," Fact Check wrote on July 8.

"The resolution Obama voted for would not have increased taxes on any single taxpayer making less than $41,500 per year in total income, or any couple making less than $83,000. The $32,000 figure is approximately the taxable income of a single person making $41,500 per year, after all deductions and exclusions. Obama's vote (for a non-binding budget bill) does not change the fact that his own tax plan would provide a tax cut of $502 for a non-married taxpayer earning $35,000." It also points out that despite the fact check, the Republican National Committee still aired radio ads "in two states repeating the bogus $32,000 figure."

NBC's Ken Strickland wrote at the time, "There was no vote during the budget resolution process to actually raise taxes.  Simply put, there was not a vote which in effect said, "let's raise taxes by 3% on certain tax brackets." So Obama did not vote to raise taxes per se. BUT... the overall budget resolution does assume the BUSH 2001/2003 tax cuts will expire (or have to be offset by new spending.) And if they expire, taxes in the 25, 28, and 33 percent tax brackets would increase 3% as Holtz-Eakin suggests. (Democrats are happy to remind folks that McCain was against those tax cuts, before he was for them.) ...

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Obama says McCain is the risky pick

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 1:54 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli


SPRINGFIELD, MO -- Obama returned to the campaign trail today, guns blazing.

Responding to a barrage of attacks in recent weeks, he linked McCain to the Bush economic policies and claimed that it was the Republican nominee who was the “risky” choice in November.

“Nobody thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they are going to try to do is make you scared of me,” he told more than a thousand people at a high school here. "'He's risky' -- that's the argument... It's like, 'Well, we don't have very much to offer but he's risky.' And let me just say, it's true that change, change is hard. Change isn't easy. And the question you have to ask yourself is, 'What's more risky?’”

He added, "We are in a time right now where it is too risky not to change. It is risky to keep on doing what we are doing, to accept the tired status quo."

Obama focused almost exclusively on the economy during his half-hour opening remarks, including the high-energy costs. He challenged the notion that drilling was the answer to the crisis, saying the effort may not have an impact for 10 years, if at all.

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Obama, 'Biggest celebrity in the world'?

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 1:45 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy, NBC’s Alex Wall and Domenico Montanaro
DENVER, Colo. -- Repeatedly calling Obama an "international celebrity," McCain campaign manager Rick Davis held a conference call this morning to address the content of their latest TV ad entitled "Celeb." The ad begins with pictures of Britney Spears and Parish Hilton before showing clips of Obama speaking to a massive crowd in Berlin, and then calls him the "the biggest celebrity in the world."

Davis also defended the ad, claiming that it accurately portrays the way the Obama campaign “has conducted his campaign” and “the events he has held.” He argued the Obama campaign’s strategy was to “build a fan base around the world” rather than address the issues, and called the Illinois senator “presumptuous” and “not ready to lead.”

VIDEO: Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Pose joins the "Morning Joe" team to analyze Barack Obama's recent statements and question whether he is acting arrogant.

“The difference between John McCain and Barack Obama is that [our campaign] has the expectation that the American people will decide who the next president is going to be,” Davis said. “My view is that there is a distinct difference in how John McCain conducted himself in the various world capitals compared to the ‘Obama world tour.’”

McCain adviser Steve Schmidt said, "It's beyond dispute that he has become the biggest celebrity in the world. It's a statement of fact. It's backed up by the reality of his tour around the world. He has many fans. The question that we are posing to the America people is this, ‘Is he ready to lead yet?’"

Obviously the McCain campaign's answer to that question is no, as Schmidt then went on to detail how Obama has failed to lead on the biggest issue in this election -- the economy -- calling his opposition to offshore drilling "economic crackery."

When asked what makes Obama a celebrity and not McCain, Davis said that he'd "love to think that John McCain was a big international celebrity, but he's not."

"One of the points that should be clear here today is that the Obama campaign does a wonderful job of presenting their candidate in the most popular light that they can get, and I think they do a very good job at it," Davis said. "They have more fans around the world than Britney Spears does. I make that bold, blatant statement."

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Richardson to help retire HRC's debt

Posted: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 12:59 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , , ,

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
After Bill Richardson endorsed Obama over Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primary season, many in Clinton Land were upset with the New Mexico governor -- given that Bill Clinton made Richardson his Energy secretary and UN ambassador.

Well, it looks like Richardson is making amends by hosting two fundraisers in New Mexico on August 17 to help Hillary Clinton retire her debt.
 
"Gov. Richardson's efforts reinforce Sen. Obama's commitment to unifying the Democratic Party and assisting Senator Clinton's effort to retire her campaign debt," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a Richardson press release announcing these fundraisers.

Added Clinton spokesman Kathleen Strand: "Sen. Clinton is grateful for Gov. Richardson's and Sen. Obama's efforts to assist with retiring her campaign debt and she is looking forward to continuing to campaign for Senator Obama and help ensure victory for Democrats throughout the country this fall."

It's worth noting that Richardson's own debt from his presidential run (as of June 30) is $292,726.