First thoughts: Gotta have faith

Posted: Tuesday, July 01, 2008 9:21 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** 'Cause I Gotta Have Faith': Despite his past problems with Jeremiah Wright and folks who think (incorrectly) that he’s a Muslim, Obama believes he has a real opportunity to peel away evangelical votes from McCain. So cue his event on faith today from Zanesville, OH, which is located in a county Clinton easily won in that state's primary. Per the latest NBC/WSJ poll, McCain was beating Obama among evangelicals by a 69%-21% margin. But there are two dangers for McCain on this front: 1) that Obama holds McCain below the 78%-21% split Bush won in 2004, and 2) that evangelicals just don’t turn out in the numbers they did four years ago, when they made up 23% of all voters. The campaign says Obama will make brief remarks on the role that faith-based and community organizations can play in American society, and the AP reports that Obama will announce plans “to expand President Bush's program steering federal social service dollars to religious groups and -- in a move sure to cause controversy -- support their ability to hire and fire based on faith.” Still, this talk about Obama and evangelicals is still very speculative; it's something a lot of smart people might believe, but the data's not there just yet. Obama, more so than McCain, appears more comfortable talking about faith, and that's another reason folks believe he'll do better with evangelicals, particularly the under 40 set. Take a look at the last seven Dem nominees: The only two who could talk about their relationship with Jesus effectively -- Carter and Clinton -- the last two Dems to win.

*** Stopping the bounce: Meanwhile, the New York Times’ Nagourney has a GOP source who raises an interesting idea: What if McCain waits to announce his VP until the day or two AFTER the Dem convention -- to try to stop Obama’s bounce? It's one of the few things McCain can control and why not take advantage of that fact? Obama's got the edge in a lot of areas in this campaign (from the landscape to resources), so McCain shouldn't throw away any little hand he's got. Not only can McCain step a bit on Obama's post-convention bounce by announcing his running mate, he can respond to Obama's choice if the Dem picks someone who leaves a demographic or state opening.

*** The Buckeye battleground: Pegged to Obama’s event in Ohio today, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann looks at the battleground of Ohio and how Obama might be able to win it this year. Zanesville, and surrounding Muskingum County, is exactly the type of region in which Democratic strategists hope that Obama will make inroads. The city of Zanesville (population: approx 25,000) is the only major population center in the mostly rural county, which is home to just one newspaper. In 2004, John Kerry -- who won only 16 of 88 Ohio counties -- lost Muskingum by an even 15 points. But Dann notes that recent successes by statewide elected Democrats Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland offer some guidance to the Obama campaign, which hopes to succeed in the rural and exurban counties where Kerry did not. Sherrod Brown carried Muskingum with 58% of the vote, and Appalachia native son Ted Strickland beat his Republican opponent there by 11 points. And what if Bill Clinton and Barack Obama patch up their rocky relationship enough to harness the success of the original comeback kid? Clinton lost Muskingum by seven points in 1992, but narrowed that loss four years later to a margin of less than 50 votes.

*** When surrogates get in the way of a good speech: After watching and then later re-reading Obama’s remarks on patriotism yesterday, we have this reaction: Did Wes Clark mess up a good speech or what? It was easily Obama’s best one since the address he gave on race back in March, and it was on a particularly sensitive subject (given the false rumors that Obama doesn’t say the Pledge of Allegiance, that he is a Muslim, etc). But Clark’s comments on Sunday about McCain’s military service and how it relates to his experience to be president essentially wasted it. Instead of the news from the speech being about Obama’s patriotism (“It is worth considering the meaning of patriotism because the question of who is -- or is not -- a patriot all too often poisons our political debates”), the focus was instead on McCain’s military service (“We must always express our profound gratitude for the service of our men and women in uniform”). How would Obama’s speech yesterday have played if Wes Clark hadn’t been in the equation? And that's the bad luck on Clark's part. Many Democrats are upset with how quickly Obama tossed Clark under the bus (haven't we heard this criticism before?) and perhaps Obama would have allowed Clark to clean up this mess himself if it wasn't for the poor timing with his major patriotism speech.

*** Just asking: With McCain beginning his day in Indiana before heading to Colombia, are Republicans concerned at all that two months after the Democratic primary there, the Hoosier State still seems to be a toss-up right now between McCain and Obama? Is this another example of the long, competitive Dem primary actually being a good thing for the party? Or is this about Indiana feeling the effects of the GOP brand issue? Or is this a geographic reality due to the fact that three of the four states that border Indiana (Illinois, Michigan and Ohio) are either blue or purple, with only Kentucky being a solid GOP state that touches Indiana? Of course, Indiana hasn’t gone Democratic since Johnson in 1964. The state has been loyal -- a veritable island of red in 1992 and 1996. Going further back, it even voted for Dewey in 1948 and against FDR in 1944 and 1940.

*** When you’re getting attacked in Mississippi…: President Bush heads to Mississippi to raise money -- behind closed doors -- for Roger Wicker (R), who’s running against former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) in an increasingly competitive Senate contest. What’s striking is that the Mississippi Democratic Party is holding a news conference before the event to, in its words, “outline why a high-dollar political fundraiser headlined by … Bush proves that electing Roger Wicker as U.S. senator and John McCain as president means nothing more than a third Bush term and a continuation of failed Bush policies.” Imagine: The Mississippi Dem Party believes it can run an anti-Bush campaign against McCain (and Wicker). This ain’t Ohio or Michigan or even New Jersey -- it’s frickin’ Mississippi.

*** On the trail: McCain delivers the keynote address at the National Sheriffs' Association meeting in Indianapolis before heading to Colombia, where he meets with that country’s leaders in the evening and holds a media avail. Obama gives his speech on faith in Zanesville, OH and also holds a media avail there.

Countdown to Dem convention: 55 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 62 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 126 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 203 days
 
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