First thoughts: Can the center hold?
Posted: Wednesday, July 02, 2008 9:34 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Can the center hold for Obama? So what do we make of Obama’s week so far? On the one hand, he’s made a big push to seize turf that the GOP has owned. Obama talked about patriotism in Independence, MO; he unveiled his faith-based agenda in Zanesville, OH; heads today to the heart of evangelical country, Colorado Springs, to address national service; and tomorrow goes to Fargo, ND. At the same time, however, he has received a considerable amount of criticism from the left (regarding his support of a compromise on FISA, his rejection of Wes Clark’s comments on McCain’s military service, and now even his faith-based proposal). To critics, Obama’s push to the center might make him seem like a conventional politician, since moving from the left to the center is such a conventional path for Democratic presidential candidates. Then again, throughout this campaign, Obama has promised to reach out to independents and Republicans, as well as seek consensus on controversial issues. What’s the bigger risk for him -- alienating his base or not seeking the middle ground in the general? The Politico’s Roger Simon seems to answer the question this way: “Barack Obama is a different kind of Democrat. He is one who actually intends to win. I don’t know if he will or not, but I do know that he has made a key decision: He has decided to run as a candidate for president and not as the leader of a movement.”
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VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses the continuing controversy surrounding retired Gen. Wesley Clark's comments about John McCain's military experience and talks about former Secretary of State Colin Powell meeting with both candidates.
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History repeating itself? The Wes Clark-McCain story has now lasted 72 hours, and it even received a bit more life when Clark yesterday
defended his controversial comments to NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, when Obama called those remarks “
inartful,” and when McCain demanded that Obama cut Clark “loose.” But does this entire episode remind anyone else of John Kerry’s botched joke before the 2006 midterms -- when Kerry’s mangled swipe at President Bush got twisted into a slap at US troops? In fact, just like now, that incident began after Republicans seized on remarks of debatable controversy and milked them for all they were worth. That event taught us a couple of lessons: 1) that it didn’t alter the overall political environment one iota, as Democrats still went on to rout Republicans in those elections despite plenty of Democratic handwringing; and 2) it politically hurt the person who said it, as Kerry later chose not to run for president again. Does this mean that the only effect the last three days have had is rule out any chance Clark had in being Obama’s veep? Of course, any day that John McCain gets to talk about his military service is a good day for him. And McCain's had three good days on that score.
*** Obama’s bargain: The Washington Post today writes that Obama secured a discount loan for his home in Chicago. Timed with the Countrywide controversy, the story probably isn’t a good one for Obama since it plays into the idea that politicians get special treatment. But this appears to be, potentially, nothing more than an example of someone getting a good deal – especially for someone who has $3 million invested in the firm that handed out the loan. However, if he got a deal no one else could have gotten, then it could get the whole Chicago dealmaker stuff back into play. One can tell the Post isn't sure how big of a deal it is since the paper chose to put it on A-3 instead of the front page.
*** Independents’ Day: With the July 4th holiday coming up, it’s probably as good of a time as any to examine the role that third-party, independent candidates might play in the presidential election. Let’s start with former Georgia GOP Rep. Bob Barr, whom the New York Times profiled last weekend. Ballot-access expert Richard Winger tells First Read that Barr -- as the Libertarian Party’s nominee -- has made the ballot in 31 states so far, and is expected to be on all of them save Oklahoma (which has very difficult ballot-access laws). In 2004, Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik got 0.32% of the vote (or 397,000 votes). There’s also perennial candidate Ralph Nader, who got 2.7% of the vote (2.9 million votes) in 2000 and 0.38% (464,000) in 2004. Winger says Nader’s on the ballot in just four states right now (AZ, CO, HI, and NM), but he expects him to eventually make 44 to 45 of them. The exceptions: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and Texas.
VIDEO: A new national poll shows Rep. Bob Barr, who is running in the presidential election as a libertarian, could pose a real threat to John McCain in Barr's home state of Georgia. A Race for the White House panel discusses.
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Barr vs. Nader: Consequently, at least at the margins, this could be an advantage for the Democrats. Assuming that the Barr and Nader votes cancel each other out (and we’re not sure they will, given that this is Nader’s third-straight run) and also assuming that Dem-leaning voters side with Nader and GOP-leaning ones side with Barr, Obama could get a little boost in the battlegrounds of Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina. And Georgia -- Barr’s home state -- is key here. A recent Insider Advantage poll for that state had McCain at 44%, Obama at 43%, and Barr at 6%. It’s worth noting that another third-party candidate, former Rep. Cynthia McKinney, also hails from Georgia. But according to Winger, she isn’t expected to be on the ballot there or Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming.
*** Independent veeps: Sticking with today’s independents/independence theme, it’s worth pointing out the independent-minded folks who could be potential VPs: Bloomberg (for both McCain and Obama), Hagel (Obama), Jim Jones (McCain and Obama), Lieberman (McCain). And let’s not forget Colin Powell who, as Hotline reports, has met with Obama and McCain in the last couple of weeks.
*** On the trail: McCain remains in Colombia, making several visits and also holding a media avail before flying to Mexico. Obama talks about national service in Colorado Springs, CO and also holds a fundraiser there.
Countdown to Dem convention: 54 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 61 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 125 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 202 days
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