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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Battleground briefing: New ads, polls

Posted: Thursday, July 03, 2008 11:32 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann


Roll Call reports that the RNC's upcoming ad launch -- which goes up Sunday in key battleground states Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- will be a $3 million campaign focused on energy policy. The ads will run through July 15.

VIDEO: The latest presidential polls show Barack Obama with a double-digit lead in some battleground states. Dan Abrams discusses the results with Huffington Post editor Roy Sekoff, Republican strategist Brad Blakeman and MSNBC political analyst Craig Crawford.

A new Gallup poll looks today at how residents of battleground states view the economy. Numbers from Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Oregon all show slightly more negativity about the state of the economy than the national average. But the numbers for Michigan and Pennsylvania are particularly pessimistic.

Politico’s Allen reports McCain will unveil a “Jobs First” economic plan on Monday as he kicks off a five-day economic tour through Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin. One of Schmidt’s first moves, perhaps? No more Canada, Colombia or Mexico… (Cillizza reports Schmidt is beefing up the RNC and NOT scrapping those regional managers.)

COLORADO: Denver officials shot down yesterday's rumor that Democrats are considering cutting their summer convention short by one day.  "I can guarantee you that's not happening," Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said.

Hickenlooper is also in the news for denouncing a jazz singer who unexpectedly replaced the Star Spangled Banner with the tune known as the Black National Anthem during his State of the City address this week. The mayor had originally painted the switcheroo as not such a big deal, but yesterday he slammed the singer for "deceiving" organizers of the event.

It's a wide range, but activists say that they're expecting 5,000 to 50,000 participants in a march to promote immigrant rights during the Denver Convention.

IOWA: The Obama campaign named two more operatives for the general election in the state that launched the Illinois senator's fight for the nomination. New Communications Director Brad Anderson, who served as an Edwards operative in 2004, comes to the Obama campaign after almost two years in Gov. Chet Culver's press shop. Trippe Welde, who started out in Davenport in the early days of the Iowa field effort and worked in Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina, will run the state's field ops.

Where are they now? Two former Dodd staffers loved Iowa so much (recall that the CT senator moved his family there in the lead up to the caucuses)  -- that they've joined up with the Democratic challenger to Rep. Tom Latham of Ames.

NEW MEXICO: A Santa Fe blog reports that James Carville -- the outspoken Clinton supporter who memorably compared Bill Richardson to Judas Iscariot after the NM guv endorsed of Obama -- is finally giving some campaign cash to Obama. No word on how many pieces of silver.

Big shakeup in the state's GOP party leadership -- Executive Director Adam Feldman is leaving (it's unclear whether he quit or was fired). He's leaving after having been on the job for less than a year, which signaled to some state politicos that Republicans realized the need for a major realignment before what could be a tough election cycle for them in November.

NEVADA: Rory Reid, the son of Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid, is considering a run for the Nevada's Governor's mansion in 2010. His dad, who has built up no small share of political critics during his tenure as Senate leader, will be up for reelection that year as well.

OHIO: Team Obama in Ohio is hosting voter registration events for the Fourth of July weekend. The "Declare Your Independence" drive will include registration and participation in holiday parades.

It's no secret that Gov. Ted Strickland is key to an Obama success. Ohio state director Aaron Pickrell was on the record yesterday saying that he expects big participation from Strickland and popular Sen. Sherrod Brown.

McCain returns to Ohio next week. Of note: he'll be in Strickland's home county -- the heart of the Appalachia region were Team Obama hopes to make inroads with the governor's help.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Mark your calendars: McCain will be back in the Live Free or Die State on July 22nd.

Democrats in the state have unveiled a Web site to report "dirty tricks" -- especially by supporters of embattled incumbent Sen. John Sununu.

Note this interesting line Sununu's using on the stump: "I'm the youngest member of the U.S. Senate, but I still have more experience than Barack Obama. What's powerful about a line like that is that it's absolutely true."

PENNSYLVANIA: McCain's trip to the Keystone State earlier this week pulled in $1.5 million.

VIRGINIA: Senate candidate Mark Warner has already spent more than $4 million on his campaign.

FLORIDA: Wow. Check out the voter registration flyer being sent out by the Florida GOP. The header? "If the Democrats win the White House this November...America will be unrecognizable."  More: "The tax and spend Democrat machine in Washington will continue spending at alarming rates...Floridians will be forced into a system of socialized medicine...and (liberals will be) creating special rights for special interest groups.''

NBC News/National Journal’s Mike Memoli contributed to this report.

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McCain picks Romney and he shores up my vote and puts confidence back into my pick.  I'll most likely vote Republican in Nov regardless but I would feel alot better with Romney at #2.

McCain/Romney 08
John, MI
*****

That makes absolutely no sense.  You will vote to enact another term of failed policies and declining economy because you feel better about the guy that wont be doing anything????
The real problem is McCain's confessed deficiency in managing the economy in which he states that he needs to be educated.

Look an article last week dug McCains werent paying their property tax for four years. Sure they could have conveniently forgotten but then being slothful on personal economics bother me more in someone who we wish to handle the keys to our economy.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/143775.
Despite being worth several millions, they also left themselves thousands in credit card debt. Every mony manager knows cc debt interest is nearly triple investment interests so this is seriously weak money management
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25154267/.
Democrats are unifying behind Obama; even those that were strong supporters of Clinton.  It is good to hear that Carville is being supportive of Obama.  

You have to love the Republicans and their scare tactics.  Can you blame them?  The general Republican banner has been bruised and beaten by several scandals and Bush's claims that he is a conservative and knows what he is doing.  I would rather there be "tax and spend" than "borrow and spend" because that means there should be less money that our children and grandchildren will have to pay back.  Right now, the amount is so huge, it is hard to comprehend; and it is still rising.  Soon China and other countries will own our country rather than us.  
"Jobs First"...first to India, then to China, then to Vietnam, then to...
No wonder people in the Rust Belt are more pessimistic than ever.  They have good reason to be.
"If the Democrats win the White House this November...America will be unrecognizable."  More: "The tax and spend Democrat machine in Washington will continue spending at alarming rates...Floridians will be forced into a system of socialized medicine...and (liberals will be) creating special rights for special interest groups.''

***************************************

The GOP wants everything to stay the way it is. They could not care less that over 80% of American's want the nation to change it's direction.

The GOP does not want uninsured Americans to ever have the blessing of healthcare, if it means the extention of a helping hand.

The GOP have a dog eat dog ideology.
I'm wondering if there is any chance that "neither of the above" will be included in any of the polling or more specifically a question to quantify how many people really don't want either of these candidates.

Not a mild dislike, but seriously don't want either of these candidates to be in the office of President?  Because of comments made on many of the blogs, it just seems like there may be a lot of people out there with this opinion and it would be interesting to see it in numbers.
"The tax and spend Democrat machine in Washington will continue spending at alarming rates...Floridians will be forced into a system of socialized medicine...and (liberals will be) creating special rights for special interest groups.''
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That's funny! The Republicans have been such GREAT financial managers - overseeing the collapse of the mortgage and energy markets simultaneously while INCREASING spending in Iraq and CUTTING taxes! No need to worry, there won't be any money LEFT for the big, bad liberals to spend! :)

P.S. Why do the Republicans in the Congress not refuse their "socialized medicine" plans that we pay for them to have? Things that make you go hmmmmmm . . .
Sununu in NH is on his way out. He said he's the youngest senator but has more experience than Obama.

Sununu is shaking in his pants as former Gov. Jeanne Sheehan is ahead of him for his position. So much for his more experience than Obama line.
I would like to see a tax and save policy. Lets repair the damage done by the neo-cons and get some real conservatives in there, no matter what label the have on.

And we don't know if the McCain's paid of the credit debt at the end of the month. I have thousands in CC debt every month, and I pay it all off each month. I have not paid interest in almost 6 years now.

As for saying McCain needs more education on the economy, is Obama an expert on the economy? Does he have his degrees in macro and micro economics? Has he been in the investment, money market, hedge fund trade for the last 15 years?

If the answer is no, then Obama needs some education on the economy too. McCain just admitted it, Obama has not.

Having Romney as the 2nd would provide more insight into economics and would help balance the executive team, that is why Romney makes those of us who are looking at McCain feel better about the ticket.
TALKING ABOUT CINDY MC CAIN CREDIT CARD BILLS ITS FUNNY ONE OF THE CARD IS 500,000 DOLLARS OWED AND ANOTHER ONE IS OWED 250,000 DOLLARS ON THE OTHER.

MUST BE NICE TO BE ABLE TO OWE THAT KINDA MONEY AND THEM OWNING A PIECE OF PROPERTY IN CALF AND NOT PAYING TAXES FOR 5 YEARS. IF IT WERE ANYONE ELSE THAT PROPERTY WOULD BE IN DEFALT AND GO TO THE HIGHEST BIDDER...MUST BE NICE ANYONE ELSE WOULD HAVE LOST THE PROPERTY.

THATS WHY WE DONT NEED ANOTHER REPUBLICAN IN THE WHITE HOUSE. PEOPLE CAN LIE AND CHEAT AND GET AWAY WITH IT.

SHE REMINDS ME OF A STANDFORD WIFE.
Romney is Mormon and the South will not support him.  THAT'S A FACT.  THE CHRISTIAN LEADERS WILL BUT THEIR PEOPLE WON'T.  Mitt Romney is a guarantee loss for John McCain.  No Sanford, No win.  Its that simple
"The GOP have a dog eat dog ideology."

Quite right, Donna, and that's largely because the most influential Republicans have the money to readily make themselves the 'biggest dogs' in a plutocratic environment.
Anyone notice the FL GOP is really talking about themselves!!!!!!!!!!
jazz singer who unexpectedly replaced the Star Spangled Banner with the tune known as the Black National Anthem
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
WTF? What is that? I've never heard of a "White National Anthem" obama's candidacy is bringing more racial tensions to light then I ever knew existed! Between this and churches like Trinity it seems to me AAs in this country are moving to segregation.
Class Warrior, you are absolutely right!!
For the Rust Belt and all over America, to join the pack you mentioned, you can add Columbia and Mexico!!
That's what MCCAIN will give you or should I say take away!!
Unrecognizable?  Am I reading into this too far or does anyone see a race baiting through a code word?
Mccain unveiling a "jobs first" economic plan....for Iraqui's of course.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com
You can't send our jobs to a communist dictatorship with no enviornmental laws, no labor laws, and no quality control and tell us to compete or else. The free traders are pimping us out and need to be exposed before it is to late.
Repubs = Greed over need
obama is 5 points ahead in montana and expect him to be ahead in more states

http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/mccain-keeps-crying-over-gen-clark/
Obama needs to be vetted and exposed.  What's going to happen to the economy when Obama raises the capital gains tax and starts giving free medical care to illegal aliens.  I wish one of you "big-brain" democrats would explain that!
yeah... tax and spend.  

You would think even republicans would understand that since this "conservative" administration put us in this hole, we'll have to get taxed to get out of it.  

We'll all have to pay for the "idiotic" decision to vote for Bush, not once..... but twice!  I never understood the Republican philosophy... that we should pay MINIMUM taxes-- but we should reap the benefits when everything with the economy is kosher.

I don't get it.  You voted this moron into office and seemingly don't know when to quit because NOW you want MORE of the same with McBush III.  Why don't you quit thinking about YOUR wallet and look at your kids and what they'll have to deal with?  Doesn't it make sense to sacrifice what you can to ensure your kids have a good future.  As an American, I'll do my part to get us out of this hole "your" conservative president put us in.  Why haven't Republicans learned that?  YOUR president swore we would pay less for oil when we went invaded Iraq and also promised the war would pay for itself!!!  Yet, last time I checked, we're footing a bill to get Iraq back on its feet while we squirm here at home and they actually have a budget SURPLUS!  Get a clue...

You know, it's one thing to be taxed and that money be used here at home, but having 12 billion per month leaving our pockets and going into Iraq is stupid!  

You're being taxed, you're just to dumb to see past your nose to see it!  
Class Warrior, you are absolutely right!!
For the Rust Belt and all over America, to join the pack you mentioned, you can add Columbia and Mexico!!
That's what MCCAIN will give you or should I say take away!!
Bobbi

What in the world does the black jazz singer in Denver, Colorado singing the "Black National Anthem" at the mayor of Denver's State of the City address have to do with Senator Obama?  Answer:  ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!!!

Because of your hatred for Senator Obama your posts are always ridiculous - but you sound more idiotic and out of touch every day.  

Even for you - this is a stretch --


Obama '08
s
Unrecognizable?  Am I reading into this too far or does anyone see a race baiting through a code word?
-------------------------------------------------
You liberals look for offense in everything.  Get over yourselves!  Funny how the only people who injected race into this campaign are Rev Wright, Bill Clinton, Geraldine Ferraro and Obama himself.  Yet you're quick to attack the GOP for 'race-baiting' when I've yet to see an example of it from them.
American in London...you are so right on!!!
Obama should raise the capital gains tax and lower the limit so more taxes are gained from estates!!
The only people who don't want those taxes are the people who have 3, 4, 5 or more houses, but cannt pay their taxes.  Or those who can charge $750,000.00 a
month, buy a new plane, and say that they know how the American people are suffering!!
Too bad, so sad, anyone who buys into this bull or the fear mongering they will throw, is both in their shoes and doesn't give a rat's behind about America or it's people!!
OBAMA/BIDEN '08
first "Socialism is dead"...

the capital Gains tax Obama is talking about "raising" is on people who are well off that are looking to draw on their returns.  There will be an exemption in place for people in the middle/lower class which will keep the rate where it is NOW.  The CG tax wouldn't be has high as it was under clinton (28%) and will focus on those people that can afford to pay more.  He's looking to level the "tax" paying field!  So unless you're looking to retire in the next 4 years and you make more than 150,000 per year... you need not worry!  

As for universal health care!  What difference does it make.  If you knew anything about our current predicament, you'd know we're picking up the tab NOW anyways.  Universal health care won't be a reason illegals can get health care... they've always got it.  I lived in a border town and anyone with half a brain knows that... you don't have to have a "big brain" to know hospitals don't deny emergency service... it's against the law!
If McCain is worried about US jobs, why did he visit Colombia yesterday and Mexico today to promote NAFTA and CAFTA? Am I theo nly one who thinks NAFTA was a horrible idea?
The following from Bill M Albany NY (Sent Thursday, July 03, 2008 12:46 PM)

“As for saying McCain needs more education on the economy, is Obama an expert on the economy? Does he have his degrees in macro and micro economics? Has he been in the investment, money market, hedge fund trade for the last 15 years?”

Bill,
John McCain cannot be educated!  He is 72.  He graduated at the bottom of his class from Annapolis when he was a young man.  Most reasonable people, given the very precarious nature of our eceonomy, would decide that Obama, who was at the top of his class and is now 46 years old, is the better candidate to make decisions that require higher order thinking.  And Bill since you can pay off your credit card bills every month, I expect you to have the cognitive skills that would enable you to understand that there’s no comparing John McCain’s potential to grasp complex economic concepts to Obama’s skills and abilities in that regard.  Or, did you inherit and/or marry your wealth and privilege like John McCain did?
Socialism is dead,

When capital gians taxes are raised, people making their living off of selling stocks will start paying their fair share of taxes. Warren Buffet says this system is unfair. I'm sure he would be happy to explain the current system to you. Also, illegals already get free health care under our current system. It's called going to the emergency room where no one ,legal or illegal, can be denied service. It looks like you need someone to explain our current health and economic systems to you.
Why should Hedge Fund managers pay a lower proportion of their income as taxes then I, and who says Obama has a plan to start giving free medical care to illegals?  Please explain that, Mr/Mrs/Ms Socialism is dead!
All I know if you look at the state of the economy here in michigan i see a Dem Goveinor, a dem house and a slight Rep senet here.
Looks like the Democrats dont know how to fix the economy, and believe me the democrat tax increase (one of the largest ever for my state) last year has a lot to do with where michigan is
The following from Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI (Sent Thursday, July 03, 2008 1:04 PM):

"WTF? What is that? I've never heard of a "White National Anthem" obama's candidacy is bringing more racial tensions to light then I ever knew existed! Between this and churches like Trinity it seems to me AAs in this country are moving to segregation."

Bobbi,
There is nothing racist that you have not heard of or participated in.  Do you work for MSNBC, or are you the "imbed" for the McCain campaign?  Your racist crap is published everyday.  And everyday we learn that you are worse than we thouhgt you were the day before.  What do you look like?  We can draw your image and make you the poster girl for hate and division. You have no capacity to make any assessment of what "AAs" want or think, as you are just PWT!
As for the singer, I hope they didn't pay her.  If they did, they need to make her give the money back!  She is a fool and represents herself, Bobbi.  She does not represent "AAs".  And you are a fool, plain and simple!

Raising the capital gains tax will help retard Bush's deficit spending outlays. The Medicare Act of 2003 already has provisions for the care of illegal aliens and that was touted by all Republicans! Get your facts right "socialism is dead."
Obama is all wrong for this country, as I'm finding out. He has been lieing to us and I don't think I will vote for him now. Senator isn't my choice but I'm begining to like him.

This lifelong dem is going to the other side for this go round. Sorry guys !
WTF? What is that? I've never heard of a "White National Anthem" obama's candidacy is bringing more racial tensions to light then I ever knew existed! Between this and churches like Trinity it seems to me AAs in this country are moving to segregation.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don't read too much into that "black national anthem" monoker. The song is actually titled "Ain't no stopping us now" and is about cleaning up our act and moving forward, while refusing to get roped in by those "who have a negative vibe" because they are going nowhere.

This record was very popular when I was growing up. Check it out

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tox2PBP3mOg
http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/

We demand a debate on the issues...
Obama needs to be vetted and exposed.  What's going to happen to the economy when Obama raises the capital gains tax and starts giving free medical care to illegal aliens.  I wish one of you "big-brain" democrats would explain that!
Socialism is dead!
Hello illegals are all ready getting free health care while the rest of us either can't get health care or pay an arm and a leg for it.
Has anyone ever pointed out to Mcold that the Congress is the only existing system of socialized medicine in the U.S.?  All those people get everything medical paid for by Big Gummint. So John-boy should know his socialized medicine when he sees it!
jazz singer who unexpectedly replaced the Star Spangled Banner with the tune known as the Black National Anthem
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
WTF? What is that? I've never heard of a "White National Anthem" obama's candidacy is bringing more racial tensions to light then I ever knew existed! Between this and churches like Trinity it seems to me AAs in this country are moving to segregation.
Bobbi, Eau Claire, WI
-----------------------------------------------------

I HAVE BEEN READING MOST OF YOUR POST, AND YOU ARE BLATENTLY RACIST.  GET OVER YOURSELF.  ALL YOU DO ON THIS SITE IS RIP INTO OBAMA AND INTO AFRICAN AMERICANS.  TRY TALKING UP YOUR CANDIDATE(IF YOU EVEN CAN) INSTEAD OF ALWAYS TALKING DOWN OBAMA AND HIS RACE.  ITS PEOPLE LIKE YOU THAT TAKE THIS COUNTRY DOWN A NOTCH.  
Flippy Flop, Flippy Flop,  Obama is changing his tone about Irag and withdrawing troops.  Must be the change he talked about--him changing his mind to win the election at all costs.
Flippy Flop, Flippy Flop,  Obama is changing his tone about Irag and withdrawing troops.  Must be the change he talked about--him changing his mind to win the election at all costs.
Not all Democrats are unifying under Senator Barrack Hussein Obama

After this latest Iraq war flip flop, we were better served with have the first woman president.  For real!

PUMA, any questions!
Socialsim is Dead;
Illegals already get free medical care,where do you live.
American living in London:
What the heck are you talking about,are you trupping?.
Democrats are NOT unifying behind Obama.  There are over 200 web sites and over 12 million members who have signed up on the PUMA and Democrats for McCain web site.  I don't know where they are polling because I sure don't know anybody voting for Obama.
Bobbi, Eau Claire - the anthem incident had nothing to do with Obama or his campaign.  It was an event in the City of Denver for the mayor to give a state of the city address. I think you need to read the article again.
McCain family problems arfe myriad: cindy's heavy drug use, proprty taxes unpaid in Californhia for five years, John's legendary temper and near section 8 becuase of it and severe PTSD, so many other things. Nothing gets press. But Obama being black gets plenty of airtime. This country has lots to both answer for and to overcome. One can only hope from someone who still believes in it.
If Obama picks a woman VP, or another Afro-American, He's lost the election.


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