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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama vs. McCain: It's the economy...

Posted: Monday, July 07, 2008 9:24 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

The New York Times sets the stage for today’s Obama-McCain events on the economy. “Not since at least 1980 … has the economy been in worse shape heading into the heart of a presidential campaign. The crush of bad economic news — six consecutive months of job losses, rising rates of home foreclosures, gasoline prices seemingly headed toward $5 a gallon — is increasingly setting the contours of the race between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain. Both candidates plan to spend this week focusing almost entirely on the economy. But both face political problems with the issue.”

VIDEO: When it comes to the economy, does it matter if Barack Obama or John McCain is elected in November? Democratic consultant Hilary Rosen and Republican consultant Todd Harris discuss.

“Mr. McCain … has been shadowed by his statements earlier in the campaign that he is not expert in the subject of the economy and by the likelihood that voters will associate him with the economic policies of the Bush administration. He has embraced President Bush’s stands on central issues like tax cuts and trade policy. Mr. Obama … has had difficulty connecting with working-class voters, and his more ambitious responses to economic problems like expanding access to health insurance would be paid for in part by tax increases, always a risky proposition.”

In his speech on the economy today, McCain will offer several contrasts with Obama (on health care, taxes, spending), according to advanced excerpts. “Small businesses are the job engine of America, and I will make it easier for them to grow and create more jobs. My opponent wants to make it harder by imposing a ‘pay or play’ health mandate on small business. This adds $12,000 to the cost of employing anyone with a family… Sen. Obama's tax increases will hurt the economy even more, and destroy jobs across this country. If you are one of the 23 million small business owners in America who files as an individual rate payer, Sen. Obama is going to raise your tax rates. If you have an investment for your child's education or own a mutual fund or a stock in a retirement plan, he is going to raise your taxes. He will raise estate taxes to 45%. I propose to cut them to 15%. 

More: “When I'm president, I will order a stem to stern review of government, modernize how it does business and save billions of dollars. I will veto every single bill with wasteful spending. We aren't going to continue mortgaging this country's future for things Americans don't want or need. My opponent has a very different record on this issue.   He has sought millions upon millions of dollars in earmarks since his election to the Senate. In 2007 alone, Sen. Obama requested nearly $100 million for earmark projects. I have never asked for a single earmark in my entire career.”

Politico’s Allen also gets his hands on a policy paper the McCain campaign will release today, in which McCain will promise to “balance the federal budget by the end of his first term by curbing wasteful spending and overhauling entitlement programs, including Social Security. The vow to take on Social Security puts McCain in a political danger zone that thwarted President Bush after he named it the top domestic priority of his second term… ‘In the long-term, the only way to keep the budget balanced is successful reform of the large spending pressures in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid,’ the McCain campaign says in a policy paper to be released Monday.”

The McCain camp has released a statement signed by 300 economists -- most of them conservatives -- backing McCain’s economic plans.

The DNC has released a Web video rebutting McCain on the economy. “Like Bush’s economy?” it asks. “Hire McCain.”

Paul Krugman asks: Just how much is Bush to blame for the current state of the economy?

The Boston Globe: “McCain, who has repeatedly said that economics is not his strength, has unapologetically embraced free trade. But, demonstrating an approach that advisers say fits into a broader set of contrasts with his opponent's approach to international affairs, McCain is increasingly making the case to Americans that trade should be considered foremost as a national security concern.”

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Comments

We don't need more taxes or more debt!!

McCain, who has repeatedly said that economics is not his strength.

Well.. we better get someone in office that has the confidence to make some changes.

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mccain just hired one of bush top campain officials now he needs to hire rove and pick cheny for his vp and we can continue the the great economic times for 4 more years
Uh, everybody and their Mother knows that Obama does not have a health mandate for everyone. The only mandate is for children under 18. I can't believe they are even trying to go there. They should already know that line attack will fail just from Obama's debates with Clinton.
And Barack Obama's plan for the energy needs of the country? "Something will happen in 20 years that makes us foreign energy independant!". Thanks for that Barack! Until then, I guess I'll just wash my laundry on a rock by the river.
From McCain "If you have an investment for your child's education or own a mutual fund or a stock in a retirement plan, he is going to raise your taxes. He will raise estate taxes to 45%. I propose to cut them to 15%."

What a DOLT.  Most american's investments are in retirement accounts where the stocks grow tax free(401K, IRA, ROTH for retirement or 529b for college).  The boogyman treat is just not there for these accounts.  Moreover, the benifits he touts will not affect the average american, let alone the average Republican.  Truely, McCain is not up to speed on these things.  
nice of the New York Times bringing the economy is as bad as 1980, when the liberals were running the country......

McCain does not exactly have a Rhodes scholar type idea when it comes to the economy, But Obama wants to tax and spend people deeper into debt.  Plus he refuses to help people with higher gasoline prices.

With Congress on vacation, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are pretty much giving the American people the finger when it comes to helping Americans in trouble.  These two idiots are the leaders of the WORST congress in history.  Nancy Pelosi would rather talk about the menu in the house dining room then talking about ordinary american's problems.

McCain will promise to “balance the federal budget by the end of his first term by curbing wasteful spending and overhauling entitlement programs, including Social Security. Sound to me like reagan all over again!! the reason John why we are in this mess is because we are spending more than we are taking in!!! the war, tax cuts, the only way you will balance the budget by then end of your first term is by cutting social programs!! if you stay in iraq and give the largest tax cut since the reagan administration!!! so any body out there who thinks kind of crap will work!! lets not forget the millions of homeless people on the street, becasue of John McCain is President this is what you will see again!!!
I'm just asking here...

If Senator McCain were to implement his plan of tax cuts (both for the wealthy and us regular folk), how does that eliminate the national debt by the end of his first term?

Taxes are bad, you won't get any argument from me there.  But, how can we pay down our country's SOARING debt without sacrificing a little bit?  How can we "win" the war in Iraq (and let's PLEASE not forget Afghanistan) without paying a little extra in taxes.

This is where Bush failed.  After 9/11 he didn't ask Americans to do anything but go to the friggin' mall and buy stuff.  We should have all sacrificed more and spent less.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
For the Obamas;A paraphrase from a past Illinois senator (Dirksen) A billion dollars here and a billion dollars there, and pretty soon, you're talking about real money.
I have heard people compare Obama to Jimmy Carter's 2nd term - including McCain.  Am I the only one who sees the irony in the fact that after two terms, the Republicans are the ones who created this mess and they are still trying to blame it on Congress.  Without an overriding majority in Congress, Bush and his policies have gone unchecked in Washington.  That era MUST end.  We need a Democrat in the White House!

PS.  Heard a funny on POTUS this morning - (The Scott Walterman for President commercial clip):

If the opposite of Pro is Con, than the opposite of Progress is Congress.  Made me laugh out loud.
This is just more of the repubs pandering about how Obama will increase taxes,Bomber I know that both you and your wife will be taxed differant since you are both in the over 250,000$ a year group that Obama will increase there tax,Bomber,,,,I know that economics is not your suit, and outside of fundraising I haven't found really much other then what Karl Rove has told you, or what LiL Bushie has told you to do.You claim that you will veto every bill that you deem to be wastefull,Does that mean the Oil War that you support, will end and we can start spending that money here ?
The opposite of Clara Kansas City, MO is an intelligent thinking person.
John McCain: Early Improprieties. Lobbyists, Lobbyists

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7r-kOIs-W6E&eurl

John McCain... Electable? 100 years in IRAQ?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Y395Tftgz0E
jerry/corpus christi texas,

You're just as lame as McFossil if you think $30 over the summer would "help" the people with that phony gas tax cut he keeps referring to. And, BTW, how does he propose to do that "over the summer" when the election isn't even until November??? Do YOU and your candidate think we can't see through this phoney promise? You're as lame as McFossil.
McCain in his speech to the small business owners, reassuring them as to how they can hope to be delivered from the burden of helping to provide healthcare to the millions they employ is a stupid strategy. The numbers of voters in need of these benefits far out-number their employers.

If I were McCain I'd speak to the needs of the workers.
Lies, all lies.  McRich knows perfectly well Obama isn't going to raise the average working person's or family's taxes---he's going to raise taxes on his filthy rich wife, Cyndi Lou Who. And because the suerrich don't want that, they're trying to scare us with a tax-on-the-middle-class boogieman.  No, McBush...that was your PREDECESSOR, King George II, who taxed the middle class and instituted tax giveaways to the super-rich.  Obama needs to set people stright on this pernicious Repiglican lie LOUD AND CLEAR!!!
So how is John McCain going to balance the budget while keeping us in Iraq for the next 100 years?  Bush and the Republicans have kept their war-without-end off budget for years and have no way to pay for it except through their tax cuts for the rich.  Doesn't make sense.
McBush cannot balance the budet with the Iraq occupation burning up 100 billion dollars a year indefinetly. Things are going to get worse before they get much worse under a McBush presidency.
"McCain is increasingly making the case to Americans that trade should be considered foremost as a national security concern."

Sorry, I don't see how free trade with Colombia is a national security concern.  

US jobs going to these countries is the real concern.

The Republicans talk big, but have repeatedly been responsible for the largest deficits.
The President has nothing to do with the economy.

Democrat or Republican.
McCain will veto every bill with wasteful spending in it.  Sounds like a long four years with nothing done.

Does he not know how things work on Capitol Hill?  He is pandering to the public, but this proposal will just create a go-nowhere adminstration.  The real change in porkbarrel spending will not come from the veto, which just further entrenches Congress against the President and should be used sparingly, but from negotiations within Congress to create laws against it.

How about this idea: cut wasteful spending on a bad war.  Bring home our troops, end the war and stop throwing good money after bad.  That would bring a lot of money back to the economy.
Mccain is a dolt...those IRA's are treated much differently under the law than an estate home or bank accounts...he should know this being filthy rich himself with all of his disguised wealth
All we hear from John McCain is the "same old same old". Tax cuts are good. Reform Social Security.( privatize it) Any removing of the tax cuts bad.  He puts out an add on capital gains tax.  MOST working class Americans invstments are in their devalued homes or 401(k) plans. Lets get real how are you going to help the working class and middle class John McCain.  I guess big business can help us out of the mess by out sourcing more jobs.  I am sick and tired of the press placating John McCains gaffes, missteps and flip flops as "colorfull". When will the press's scrutiny hone in on him. ( my guess is like the Iraq war after the damage is done)  I am an independent that never voted for the Clinton's or Al Gore but be rest assured that since 2002 I have not and will not vote Republican.  I know a vote for them is a vote against my ethical ,moral and economic interests.  
McCain plans to privatize Social Security, which means end it.  He plans to do away with employer based insurance, which means end it.  Come on folks, look at what he is saying and actually proposing.  He is poision to the middle-class, as the republicans have already demonstrated!  
McCain and his party want to keep the wealthy, wealthy and show nothing but contempt for the average American.  Bush people are running his campaign and you think he will be different from Bush?  How insane a rationale is that?
Go ahead and vote McCain for the complete destruction of the American middle-class!
Let's face it:  the economy is neither McCain's nor Obama's strongest point.  But there's no way Obama is going to implement all of his ridiculous initiatives, without sending our taxes through the roof.  Of course, liberals refuse to see that.  
The return of voodoo economics. McCain will cut taxes, increase spending, and eliminate the deficit.
I think we all know exactly who is out of touch...someone please tell McCain and his staff....this is the 21st century!
OBAMA 08
McCain will cut taxes, increase spending, and eliminate the deficit.....AND stay in Iraq the next 100 years, spending BILLIONS of dollar a month (borrowed, of course, from China)! He's quite the guy, isn't he? I've got some swamp land to sell you, too. It's worth about as much as a McFossil presidency would be. Zip. Nada. Zero. Nothing.
Vote McCain the last line of defense against Obama.

Obama must not be president.


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