First thoughts: Obama's slight map lead

Posted: Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:15 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s slight map lead: In early June, right after the end of the Democratic primary season, NBC’s electoral map showed an exact tie between Obama and McCain -- each had 200 electoral votes when you added up their base and lean states. But according to this month’s NBC map, while the race remains close, Obama has opened up a 210-189 lead over McCain, with 139 electoral votes in the toss-up column.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (139 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)

Here are the changes from last month, most of them moving in Obama’s direction: ME and WA moved from Lean Obama to Base Obama; WI moved from Toss-up to Lean Obama; MO moved from Lean McCain to Toss-up; AK and SD moved from Base McCain to Lean McCain; and AR, LA, NE, and MS moved from Lean McCain to Base McCain.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his analysis of the electoral map.

*** The importance of Illinois: If there's one thing that stands out about the map right now, it's Obama's strength in the region he represents. He's over-performing in every state that touches Illinois (save Kentucky), and he's starting to pull away a bit in some states in the agricultural Midwest that in the last two campaigns have been very close. McCain, meanwhile, isn't fairing nearly as well in his home region. The West is turning into Obama's most fertile pickup opportunities after the Illinois states. McCain's best battleground region is the Rust Belt/industrial Midwest, which is turning into MUST-wins for him if he ends up losing the ground we have him losing in the agricultural Midwest and possibly the West.

*** The Clinton-Obama drama continues: Pegged to the news that Obama and Clinton are holding joint fundraisers in New York tonight and tomorrow (to raise money for Obama’s campaign and help retire Hillary’s debt), the New York Times front-pages this conversation-starter: Clinton’s finance people are upset that Obama’s donors aren’t rushing to help retire Clinton’s debt. “[S]o far they have come up with less than $100,000 (though more in pledges), Clinton campaign officials said — a ‘paltry sum,’ in the words of one." That money includes the checks the Obamas wrote. But ask yourself this question: Had the shoe been on the other foot -- that Obama lost the nomination race and racked up millions of debt in the process, despite raising some $230 million -- would Clinton folks be rushing to help pay off Obama’s vendors? Lots of Obama donors are just as bitter over the fact that Clinton stayed in the race longer than they would have liked, even as the math got more daunting. And there seems to be little sympathy for Clinton's debt, since so much of it was accumulated after Feb. 19, when Obama grabbed the lead for good. If the Clinton folks can be patient, we're guessing the Obama donors will be much more generous after Nov. if they win than they will be now.

*** Simply a test: This morning, the McCain released a statement on the news that Iran had test-fired some missiles, and it included a dig at Obama. “Iran's most recent missile tests demonstrate again the dangers it poses to its neighbors and to the wider region, especially Israel,” he said. “Working with our European and regional allies is the best way to meet the threat posed by Iran, not unilateral concessions that undermine multilateral diplomacy." This is one of those issues that if it popped in October, it could be a big deal. Instead, like the test itself, the incident tests the nimbleness of both campaigns and their ability to deal with a story like this. Look for McCain in particular to use this moment as a way to flex his national security advantage over Obama. For Obama, it's also an opportunity to look and sound like a president. Luckily for him, he was doing the morning shows today, which meant he got to give a televised response before McCain.

*** Killing them with laughter: McCain’s statement on Iran also came just hours after he told another joke about Iran, which raised some eyebrows (remember “Bomb, Bomb Iran”?). Talking to reporters at the lunch counter at Primanti Brothers Restaurant and Bar yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger reports, McCain was asked about the increase in US exports to Iran during the Bush Administration, with the largest export being cigarettes. “Maybe that’s a way of killing them,” McCain said, laughing, according to a pool report. “I meant that as a joke, as a person who hasn’t had a cigarette in 28 years.” Cindy McCain then corrected him -- it’s been 29 years. She also poked him in the back. According to the pool report, McCain aide Brooke Buchanan then walked over to senior adviser Mark Salter with a concerned look on her face and repeated the exchange… Some folks in McCain World may be trying to get McCain to stop the jokes, but the old McCain returned. Of course, this is the McCain the public fell in love with over the last few years, though the timing of the Iran news didn't help. Still, if McCain can't be McCain, then he'll lose some of his appeal.

*** The FISA fight: Before going to New York for those fundraisers, Obama spends his day on the Senate floor, where he will vote for the compromise FISA legislation, which has angered some of his supporters. Not surprisingly, the McCain campaign has already pounced on this. "A few short months ago, Barack Obama outwardly opposed terrorist surveillance legislation, saying that he would filibuster any bill that includes immunity for American telecommunications companies that had been asked by the government to participate in the program,” McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said in a statement. “Today, the U.S. Senate will approve legislation providing the immunity Barack Obama supposedly opposed, and despite his promise, he will not support a filibuster. What Barack Obama will do is show that he's willing to change positions, break campaign commitments and undermine his own words in his quest for higher office." Here's something to watch: Will Hillary Clinton give Obama cover on this?

*** Talkin' 'bout my generation: The TV ad the McCain campaign unveiled yesterday, which invokes the divisive decade of the 1960s, is just another reminder how big a role the generational divide could be in this election. One thing worth pointing out: Perhaps not surprisingly, McCain is over-performing with older voters, while Obama is over-performing among younger ones. According to exit polls, Bush won the 65-and-older crowd by five points (52%-47%) in 2004 and three points (50%-47%) in 2000. But in last month’s NBC/WSJ poll, McCain was leading Obama among this group by seven (48%-41%). Meanwhile, Kerry won the 18-to-29 set by nine points in 2004 (54%-45%), and Gore won them by two in 2000 (48%-46%). Obama? The NBC/WSJ poll had him up 13 points (53%-40%) among those 18 to 34. Also of note: Kerry lost the 30-to-44 crowd in 2004 (53%-46%), as did Gore in 2000 (49%-48%). Yet in our poll, Obama was leading among those 35 to 49 by four points (44%-40%).

*** And looking at white older voters: What’s more on this front, we combined our last two NBC/WSJ surveys to get a larger sample of white voters broken down by age in the Obama-McCain match-up, and while Obama -- at this stage in the race -- outperforms Kerry and Gore among all white voters, the age group where Obama underperforms both Kerry and Gore is among white voters 65+. Obama trails McCain 54%-32%, which is nearly twice the deficit Kerry had at this point with Bush among this group (53%-40%). Obama, of course, does better among white voters under 35, which makes up for the older voter issue. Still, McCain's new ad appears to be aimed at solidifying his strength among older white voters who make up a lion's share of swing voters in states like Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

*** One more thought on the ad: Yesterday's release of the new McCain bio spot signals a turning point in the McCain message -- that everything they do from here on out will be an attempt to make this election a referendum on Obama. The new ad, while appearing biographical in nature, is contrast heavy with Obama. Many Republicans were pushing for McCain to accept the fact that this wasn’t going to be about him, that he had to do something to shift the focus from Bush to Obama. Let's see if they stick to this.

*** On the trail: McCain tours a local energy company in Pittsburgh before heading to Portsmouth, OH to hold a town hall there. Obama is in DC and then heads to New York for those fundraisers. And Michelle Obama speaks with Michigan women in Pontiac.

Countdown to Dem convention: 47 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 54 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 118 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 195 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

McSame joking about Bombing and Killing Iranians should convince everyone that this old man is still living in the 40's and WILL invade Iran if elected.

No doubt. He can't wait to attck them !

The question is, ARE we that stupid America. We elected a war monger and we got into 2 wars, 4100 dead, 30,000 wounded .... over 100,000 on Post Traumatic Stress Dis-Order ..

Lets do something about it !

Say No to this war monger. Our childrens lives depend on it !

Steve NewYork NY (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:21 AM)

To Barack Obama supporters:

An interesting article this morning written by freelance writer J. Shawn Durham printed in our local Metro paper this morning -

“Since LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964, and as we all know, Democrats have not done well in the south. It looks like this is changing since the old race baiting conservatives are dying away - most notably Strom Thurmond and Jesse Helms.

Things are starting to change - A 2007 survey conducted by Black Enterprise magazine showed that 9 of the 10 most integrated cities in the country are in the South.

Barack Obama is statistically tied with John McCain in Virginia. North Carolina is in striking distance for Obama. Georgia is in play because the state has 1.3 million black voters and another 600,000 unregistered blacks. Louisiana is 30% black and both blacks and whites are still sore over Katrina. And although confederate flags hang over its capitals, Republicans will have to spend a pretty penny to keep South Carolina with its 30 plus percent black voters in its column.

John McCain has yet to fire up his conservative base. And even if Obama doesn’t carry a single southern state, staying competitive in Dixie forces McCain to devote his limited resources to keep the South in the Republican column instead of making inroads in the critical battleground states of Ohio, Florida and PA.

Compounding McCain’s woes is the fact that Obama grew the electorate in the primary season and got voters to the polls in record numbers. That strategy could pay off if applied to the South. This isn’t Uncle Remus’ South. Even red states have liberal hamlets like Athens, Chapel Hill, Richard and Greenville. And most of the 35,000,000 black Americans live in the Deep South.

All this could be crazy talk. But Obama is using money and the grassroots network to increase voter turnout in all 50 states, so anything is possible. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the South was responsible for putting a black man in the White House?”

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:22 AM)

Could Obama be the one who destroys the republican party for years to come? I hope so.

Marty in KC (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:22 AM)

Illinois doesn't touch Kentucky. Arkansas does though.

BH Obama - Chicago IL (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:24 AM)

It's not just Obama supporters who won't give Hillary any more money but even many of her supporters and donors who did not max out. I am waiting until there is a statement from her and Mark Penn that ZERO of the money raised will be paid to Penn until everyone else is paid off in full.

Eric, SI, NY (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:25 AM)

McCain was asked about the increase in US exports to Iran during the Bush Administration, with the largest export being cigarettes. “Maybe that’s a way of killing them,” McCain said, laughing, according to a pool report. “I meant that as a joke, as a person who hasn’t had a cigarette in 28 years.” Cindy McCain then corrected him -- it’s been 29 years. She also poked him in the back. According to the pool report, McCain aide Brooke Buchanan then walked over to senior adviser Mark Salter with a concerned look on her face and repeated the exchange…
**********************************

Sad. Just sad. I know that I don't want this cat sitting down with ANY world leaders - let alone those whom America does not see eye-to-eye. I thought cowboy politics were bad...

http://thepajamapundit.com/

the Pajama Pundit (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:25 AM)

This griping by certain Clinton loyalists that "Obama supporters have not done more to help erase her debt," is an utter JOKE. It's HER debt. It's HER debt that SHE ran up while acting irresponsibly and running disingenuous attack ads against him. These people are delusional and continue to prove they have the maturity of a five-year-old. If the shoe were on the other foot, these people would be viciously deriding Obama for even daring to ask them to help pay off debt. You know it. I know it. They know it.

Reality Check (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:25 AM)

Obama is going to cast a vote? Someone better get that one up on youtube. Very rare to see that. Rare indeed.

Dennis Costa (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:25 AM)

I am perplexed as to why Chuck Todd seems so, how should I say this carefully, indifferent and doubtful about the Obama campaign. For him to declare on Countdown last night that this election is all about Obama’s likeability, shows a lack of understanding of what the Obama campaign is all about and why it is so strong. He has been this way throughout the primaries, and I often thought it was a definite bias towards Clinton. But Chuck Todd isn’t the only media pundit to behave this way.

I suspect if Obama does not win a clear majority of votes in the election, the media will hound him every single day. The change Obama proposes threatens the livelihoods of all these so-called political analysts; especially the wing nut neo-cons. After all, if we are going to change Washington, we must also change the media environment as well.

I’ll sign up to have a world with less Rush Limbaugh air bags, and no Fox News!

Paul, Chicago Illinois (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:27 AM)

In regards to the veiled threats about Hillary and Bill "not really working to help Obama" if his supporters don't do more to pay off his debts, let's spin that around. Hillary and Bill ran up the debt. If they want help paying it off, it'll come AFTER the election and it will be DIRECTLY proportional to the level of commitment they show in helping Obama get elected.

California Voter (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:28 AM)

Obama is ahead in almost all of those states that you call "toss ups": CO, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA. And he's up pretty big (by 8) in PA , so why is that not considered "leaning" Obama?

And how do you call IN leaning for McCain when the most recent poll of polls has Obama up by 1 there?

You guys are being WAY too generous to McCain in your allocation of electoral votes right now, and the reason is clear: if you allocated according to who is ahead in the polls there, then Obama CRUSHES McCain. And a blowout, from the MSM's point of view, is boring. You guys NEED it to be close, just as you need for there to be controversy (e.g. non-existent flip-flops) otherwise you have nothing to report about.

The MSM reports the truth so long as the truth is interesting. When it's not, then you start to see their instigation-machine in full effect.

Linda. Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:28 AM)

Maybe Barack could help get Congresses approval rating into double digits. Their ratings are at 9%? The leftie loons around here could get the ratings to 9%. Do only the loons support the Democratic led Congress?

Car Loons (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:31 AM)

Could Obama be the one who destroys the republican party for years to come? I hope so.

Marty in KC (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:22 AM)

---------------

I know Obama has been on a flip-flop binge lately, but I had not heard that he switched parties.

Republicans Don't Want Obama Either (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:33 AM)

This FISA stuff is crazy...the FISA court had no oversight before, there were not warrants requested or issued and there was no previous probable cause to tap phones before.

The new change allows that.

Yes, as with the Fourth Amend, there is a slight violation, but in today's world of threats, there must be greater oversight and more measures put in place.

This is such a big deal, because this administration has not followed the law. Under a new Democrat Administration, I believe it would.

He is not undermining anything, it is a matter of putting safeguards back in place that were not exercised before. Remember, this FISA court has always been around, but this Rethuglican administration has been running a rogue state of affairs.

Obama has not switched, this is the rethuglicans attempt to paint Obama as weak, but eventually we are going to have to talk about the rethuglicans. This argument is really wearing thin, so what is next on the list of things that the rethuglican's are trying to escape from?

Michelle Zee (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:33 AM)

In regards to the Clinton/Obama Drama:

I, as an Obama supporter don't see where Hillary is availing herself that much to help him on the campaign, and Bill is being downright ugly, and we supporters see this. Personally, I don't see any reason to help with her debt. This whole scenario sounds like blackmail to me anyway (pay my debt, or else I won't campaign for you).

But, on the other hand, a lot of people are hurting because of the price of oil. It's hard donating to Sen. Obama, the DNC, AND Hillary too, GEEZ!

KJ, Dallas, lTX (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:35 AM)

Clinton's massive debt was not the result of some unforeseeable misfortune, it was the result of her own poor planning and a refusal to accept the reality of her defeat (which became clear WAY back when she underperformed in OH/TX). And to be upset with Obama supporters for not cleaning up her mess shows a lack of understanding of who we are. We are not rich!!! Most of us starving students didnt donate because we had all kinds of money laying around, we did so because we felt it was a NECESSITY. Those millions of Obama donations we an investment, not a gift. But with Clinton out of the rest, there is no necessity, no investment. Faced with paying off my own debts or the debts of a millionaire, the choice is clear.

Linda. Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:36 AM)

"Obama is going to cast a vote? Someone better get that one up on youtube. Very rare to see that. Rare indeed."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Another ignorant McCain supporter. FYI - McCain has the WORST attendance record in the Senate. So if you want to talk about someone not casting votes, I'm ready when you are.

Linda. Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:37 AM)

Our dark horse candidate is gaining on 'Trigger'. (Pun intended).

donna (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:37 AM)

Obama is where he is because people THINK he is AA. That is the only reason I can see. He has no plan, no clue, where to get one ( oh yes thats where the Clintons come in ). He flip flops more and any canidate I've ever seen ! Now he is pandering to the center to try to get the independent vote. Does he believe in ANYTHING of his own ?. with only 143 days in politics and no voting record in the Senate,what does he think qualifies him to be POTUS ? oh yeah the black thing ! Oh and just a FYI , he didn't vote against Iraq, he voted present ! He didn't have a opinion as usual.

Pissed off Dem (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:39 AM)

Isn't Sen. McCain going to show up for the FISA vote? Why criticize another Sen.'s vote if you don't show up yourself? As to the Clinton debt issue, what made her think that going into that much debt was okay? There were many people who bailed Sen. and Pres. Clinton out at the end of their time in the White House (giving money for legal bills, etc.) but there does come a time when one gets tired of giving money for someone else's follies.

formerly of NY (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:39 AM)

I agree with Linda in Boston and Paul in Chicago about NBC/MSNBC/First Read. This election is going to put a lot of so-called expert analysts in a very long 'eating crow' line.

I think Obama score somewhere in the low to mid 300s in the EC.

Get a Clue First Read Proponents Dot Org (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:39 AM)

Chuck, you truly are at your best when you are crunching the numbers. Obama's overwhelming support and margin in the primary in his home state of Illinois was one of the solidifying statistics in my support of him. People who know him and have worked with him LIKE him. They trust him, he represents them. Of course there are those who dissent; but the margins spoke volumes. PS. Didn't we win a Republican Congressional seat in Illinois with his supporting the Dem candidate?

Rubbish about the Clinton debt. I plan to kick $5 her way by the convention; but every spare penny I have these days (albeit significantly fewer with gas prices) is going to Obama and the DNC. This is my priority and focus. Once again, there seems to be a 'tone of entitlement' - how dare Obama supporters not pitch in. How much extra did he spend defending his position because she wouldn't read the writing on the wall? That kind of obstinance has no place in this campaign.

And back to McCain, when you can't run on your record and your platform - attack your opponent. This is Rove101. I think this speaks to his lack of principled positions. He has become a total shadow of his former self and does not deserve to be POTUS. He abandoned principles somewhere in a foxhole in Vietnam. Beginning with his "family values" and rolling on through his Bush hugging up to yesterday when he said, ‘Maybe that’s a way of killing them.’ He wouldn't know diplomacy if it bit him in the ass.

Clara Kansas City, MO (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:40 AM)

Obama will be voting 'present' on the FISA bill.

Liberalism is a disease (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:41 AM)

If Obama wants to win the election all he has to do is play the clip of McCain singing Bomb, Bomb Iran and slow and slow down the clip dramatically. America decide..........do you want 4 more years of war!!!! A war hero who jokes about bombing Iran and starting another war while we're already mired in two wars. Remember Kerry's flip flopper videos? That was the end of him. The GOP (Gas and Oil Party) took one little clip (stuck to message) and killed it by replaying the same negative image over and over again. We need some group (not the Obama campaign itself) to put up the Bomb Bomb Iran video and play it over and over and over!!! That would just be the final nail in MCCain's campaign.

a of il (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:41 AM)

Re paying off the Clinton debt...

In 1988, Dukakis had to pay off J. Jackon's 2 million dollar debt and buy him a plane to get him out of the race.

Paying off debt is not all that unusual.

Considering what we have now seen of him...it is clear why Hillary stayed in...she obviously knew what we were in for.

As a New Yorker...whether or not I vote for him is mute... none the less while I won't vote for McCain, I won't for this phony either.

Lisa, NY (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:41 AM)

Hey Dennis Costa:

At least Barack is in DC voting...when is the last time or often has McBush been in DC.

Barack/Joe looks good!

John, Tampa (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:41 AM)

I'm sure some of the fraidy cats on the right will eat up mccains tough talk...but will they suit up and fight in Iran better than in Iraq? We'll see

Rick, NC (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:43 AM)

I am so tired of war mongers! If I have to choose between Mccain and Obama. It will be Obama.

Margaret TX (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:43 AM)

Not only is mccain unqualified to be POTUS, he is just plain stupid!

Steve A Jonesboro IN (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:43 AM)

It is still to early to call states...we have seen candidates lose huge leads over the political season summer.

Once BO comes put and says marriage should be between a man and woman (and he will) it should be very interesting to see how his liberal base reacts.

Lisa, NY (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:44 AM)

I don't think that making a joke about someone smoking themselves to death is funny. I don't care who it is! I for one find McSame to be sneering and nasty.

Do the Republicans think that we American people are stupid?

Using Obama as a sneer campaign is not very mature even if we are dealing with a senior citizen that is not up on his game.

Also about Hillary Clinton: Even though everyone got to vote—which is a good thing—Clinton staying in the race when she did not have the resources was irresponsible. It showed bad judgement and asking us small donors to pull her out is plain wrong.

As per FIRST READ: if the shoe was on the other foot. I know there would have been major kicking to the curb.

Andrea, New York City (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:44 AM)

MICHELLE ZEE - OBAMA HAS SWITCHED. OBAMA'S FLIP-FLOP AND FAILURE TO LIVE UP TO HIS PROMISE TO OPPOSE THIS LEGISLATION GIVES IMMUNITY TO BUSH FOR MULTIPLE FELONIES AND GIVES CIVIL IMMUNITY TO THE TELECOMS.

Carole, Ft. Laud (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:46 AM)

The McCain that the PUBLIC fell in love with, or that the doughnut eating MEDIA fell in love with?

Ed Szewczyk, Belleville, Illinois (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:46 AM)

I can't think of one good reason why I, an Obama supporter, should help pay off Hillary Clinton's debt. She kept digging that hole deeper and deeper. Her campaign wasted money on expensive consultants and expensive hotels and didn't pay vendors on time. On top of all that, she is a multimillionaire! She should pay this debt out of her own money, and no one should expect struggling Americans to ante up for it.

On a different note, I just read a story about Sen. Obama regretting the Access Hollywood interview with his family. He has nothing to regret!! In fact, we need to see more of his family; those sweet little girls make it clear just how much the Obamas have in common with American families. That interview only enhanced and confirmed my sense of how well-rounded and family-oriented a man Sen. Obama is...and how his wife and daughters keep him grounded.

Gail, TN (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:47 AM)

I had a dream that I saw Chuck Todd on Morning Joe saying that the reason we love John McCain is because of the way he carelessly jokes about killing Iranians. It was a dream, right Chuck?

P.S. Funny that Joe Scarborough derides Senator Obama for being a community organizer, and yet one of the great weaknesses of the Bush Administration has been a lack of organization - especially in Iraq and in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.

One of the hallmarks of the Obama campaing for the Presidency has been excellent grassroots organization. Why is this something to be made fun of? Is being organized suddenly a bad trait? Did I mention the media is a joke in this election?

Nashville_fan (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:47 AM)

Obama has proven he is the change candidate.

He's changed campaign financing via the internet, and grass roots organinzing.

He changed voter registration from lethargy to millions of voters.

He's changed lobbyist's influence.

He's raised/changed political etiquette by refusing to attack his opponents on gaffes, and personal baggage.

He's changing attitudes toward the old mapping expectations.

He's broken the glass ceiling, the biggest change of all.

If our Nation is to continue as the greatest on earth, we had better get behind all Americans bringing their G-D given gifts to Washington's table.

donna (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:48 AM)

“I meant that as a joke, as a person who hasn’t had a cigarette in 28 years.” Cindy McCain then corrected him -- it’s been 29 years. She also poked him in the back.

------------------------------------------

Careful, Cindy. You joked around with your hubby once before in 1992 and he called you the c-word for it!

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:48 AM)

John McCain was in Denver recently speaking, as usual, incoherently and unenthusiastically.

There was a 69-year old librarian outside the venue with a sign reading "McCain = Bush". I'm sure some of you heard the story.

This is being talked about all over Denver, on both the left and the right, and the common consensus is that John McCain, like his compadre GWB, will not tolerate dissent and chooses to suppress free speech.

Being the toss-up state that it is, this could very well tip Colorado to Obama for good.

Obama 08

C_Sexton, Colorado Springs, CO (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:49 AM)

Once again the War Gnome McCain has shown how unpresidential he his. The man is not qualified intellectually, tempermentally and I doubt physically for the job. His stupid cigarette remark is insensitive and sophomoric. Another stupid president is not what the United States needs in a troubled world.

bill, okla (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:50 AM)

I am perplexed as to why Chuck Todd seems so, how should I say this carefully, indifferent and doubtful about the Obama campaign
-------------------------------------------------
It's called honest coverage. Just because he's one of the few on MSNBC not falling all over himself in adoration of Obama doesn't mean he's indifferent or doubtful. Doesn't make it perplexing, either.

Jack, Dallas (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:50 AM)

I read way too much political commentary, and it puts me in a foul mood, as most of the pundits disparage Obama and build up McCain - THEN, new polls come up showing support for Obama increasing and I have hope again (yes, hope!) that America is smarter than the mainstream media gives us credit for.

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:50 AM)

"Illinois doesn't touch Kentucky. Arkansas does though."

Message to BH OBAMA: Illinois is contiguous with Kentucky. Have you ever heard of Paducah? That's an easy mistake to make for someone who lives in Chicago and not Illinois.

Ed Szewczyk, Belleville, Illinois (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:51 AM)

McNasty is BACK! The dig at Obama on smoking and the joke about killing Iranians are classic McCain. People will turn against McCain once they see how nasty he really is. The press may see it as endearing but most people will see it as nasty. He earned the nickname "McNasty" in school for good reason.

Keith, PA (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:51 AM)

Illinois doesn't touch Kentucky. Arkansas does though.
BH Obama - Chicago IL (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:24 AM)
_____________________________________________________

I'm going to try my best to pull all that I can to help him.

Lisa, Ar (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:51 AM)

It makes me mad when the media always points out how poorly the democratic controlled congress is fairing in polls. They like to use the words "in all fairness" but never seem to remember to say "in all fairness" the democrats do not have a super majority so everything they have attempted to do since they have taken the majority in congress has been vetoed by President Bush and they don't have the super majority to push their legistlation through. I'm sure they will by fall!!! I can't believe the Bush holdouts haven't seen the writing on the wall and started making smarter deicisions for the country instead of their personal interests but that's a GOPer for ya!

a of il (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:52 AM)

I certainly will not give a cent to relieve Hillary's self-inflcted debt-through-mismanagement.
I like to hear that Mcshame is losing in his own back yard. I'm resigned to the fact that Obama is resigned to the fact that this FISA bill is the best we'll get out of this not-Democratic-enough Congress, so he'll vote for it.As for Iran, I'm starting to think they're getting paid secretly by the RNC or Team McCain; the bluster about "burning down American interests" and the shooting off of missiles that can hit Israel are playing right into the GOP's hands. Obama will no doubt overcome this with intelligent talk on the talk shows, but you really have to wonder what the hell the Iranians are thinking...giving Bush an excuse to invade Iran as his October Surprise for Mcwar. They must really be itching for apocalyptic martyrdom.

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:52 AM)

rethugnutz have NO positive arguements to make in their favor so what do they do, yes you guessed right, lie, smear avoid all intellegent discourse and above all blame everything on some one else while taking NO responsibility themselves.

thats a fact jack (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:54 AM)

Linda,Boston..
Great insight. The media certainly wants a closer race, otherwise they have nada to report about. McCain is not close in the electoral votes according to other polls that keep track.

A.Brocco.Albuquerque,NM (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:55 AM)

From Salon.com:

'...The Washington Post's Dan Balz took a long look at John McCain's economic plan, released yesterday, and offered this informed judgment:

John McCain has been around Washington long enough to remember the days when Republicans constantly clashed among themselves over fiscal policy. Were they the party of Jack Kemp, of supply-side economics and big tax cuts, or the party of Bob Dole and the green eyeshade economics of deficit reduction?

McCain today finds himself with a foot in both camps, though tentatively. He remains an unconvincing tax cutter but he is also an unpersuasive deficit hawk, at least on the basis of his latest economic plan.

And following that observation, Balz served up the Quote of the Day: "He is a pure reflection of the Republican Party he seeks to lead." Hard to argue with that...'

Is he a 'deficit hawk' or a 'supply sider' ?

Probably niether...
Just a political hack who DOESN'T UNDERSTAND ECONOMICS

MSierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:55 AM)

I will not give one cent to retire Hillary Clinton's deliberate campaign debt. Thank Goodness she did not win the nomination because she would be an equally bad manager of the country as she was a manager of her campaign. The primary race was over in Feb. and Hillary knew it, but she threw all sound judgement to the wind and kept on campaigning while having no impact on an eventual victory, but she did manage to increase her debt substantially.

That kind of thinking is too reckless and she and her supporters should get themselves out of the mess they got themselves into. I have, and will continue to support Sen. Obama, but will not give anything to pay off Hillary's terrible campaign advisors, namely Mark Penn.

If her supporters want to withhold their support for Barack, so be it. They want to have it both ways while suggesting that it is Sen. Obama's fault for Hillary's disasterous campaign.

She is only reaping what she has sown.

GO OBAMA/BIDEN

J. Ellis, Virginia (Sent Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:55 AM)

Next >>

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=1188557