First thoughts: Obama's slight map lead
Posted: Wednesday, July 09, 2008 9:15 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s slight map lead: In early June, right after the end of the Democratic primary season, NBC’s electoral map showed an exact tie between Obama and McCain -- each had 200 electoral votes when you added up their base and lean states. But according to this month’s NBC map, while the race remains close, Obama has opened up a 210-189 lead over McCain, with 139 electoral votes in the toss-up column.
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (139 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
Here are the changes from last month, most of them moving in Obama’s direction: ME and WA moved from Lean Obama to Base Obama; WI moved from Toss-up to Lean Obama; MO moved from Lean McCain to Toss-up; AK and SD moved from Base McCain to Lean McCain; and AR, LA, NE, and MS moved from Lean McCain to Base McCain.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his analysis of the electoral map.
***
The importance of Illinois: If there's one thing that stands out about the map right now, it's Obama's strength in the region he represents. He's over-performing in every state that touches Illinois (save Kentucky), and he's starting to pull away a bit in some states in the agricultural Midwest that in the last two campaigns have been very close. McCain, meanwhile, isn't fairing nearly as well in his home region. The West is turning into Obama's most fertile pickup opportunities after the Illinois states. McCain's best battleground region is the Rust Belt/industrial Midwest, which is turning into MUST-wins for him if he ends up losing the ground we have him losing in the agricultural Midwest and possibly the West.
*** The Clinton-Obama drama continues: Pegged to the news that Obama and Clinton are holding joint fundraisers in New York tonight and tomorrow (to raise money for Obama’s campaign and help retire Hillary’s debt), the New York Times front-pages this conversation-starter: Clinton’s finance people are upset that Obama’s donors aren’t rushing to help retire Clinton’s debt. “[S]o far they have come up with less than $100,000 (though more in pledges), Clinton campaign officials said — a ‘paltry sum,’ in the words of one." That money includes the checks the Obamas wrote. But ask yourself this question: Had the shoe been on the other foot -- that Obama lost the nomination race and racked up millions of debt in the process, despite raising some $230 million -- would Clinton folks be rushing to help pay off Obama’s vendors? Lots of Obama donors are just as bitter over the fact that Clinton stayed in the race longer than they would have liked, even as the math got more daunting. And there seems to be little sympathy for Clinton's debt, since so much of it was accumulated after Feb. 19, when Obama grabbed the lead for good. If the Clinton folks can be patient, we're guessing the Obama donors will be much more generous after Nov. if they win than they will be now.
*** Simply a test: This morning, the McCain released a statement on the news that Iran had test-fired some missiles, and it included a dig at Obama. “Iran's most recent missile tests demonstrate again the dangers it poses to its neighbors and to the wider region, especially Israel,” he said. “Working with our European and regional allies is the best way to meet the threat posed by Iran, not unilateral concessions that undermine multilateral diplomacy." This is one of those issues that if it popped in October, it could be a big deal. Instead, like the test itself, the incident tests the nimbleness of both campaigns and their ability to deal with a story like this. Look for McCain in particular to use this moment as a way to flex his national security advantage over Obama. For Obama, it's also an opportunity to look and sound like a president. Luckily for him, he was doing the morning shows today, which meant he got to give a televised response before McCain.
*** Killing them with laughter: McCain’s statement on Iran also came just hours after he told another joke about Iran, which raised some eyebrows (remember “Bomb, Bomb Iran”?). Talking to reporters at the lunch counter at Primanti Brothers Restaurant and Bar yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger reports, McCain was asked about the increase in US exports to Iran during the Bush Administration, with the largest export being cigarettes. “Maybe that’s a way of killing them,” McCain said, laughing, according to a pool report. “I meant that as a joke, as a person who hasn’t had a cigarette in 28 years.” Cindy McCain then corrected him -- it’s been 29 years. She also poked him in the back. According to the pool report, McCain aide Brooke Buchanan then walked over to senior adviser Mark Salter with a concerned look on her face and repeated the exchange… Some folks in McCain World may be trying to get McCain to stop the jokes, but the old McCain returned. Of course, this is the McCain the public fell in love with over the last few years, though the timing of the Iran news didn't help. Still, if McCain can't be McCain, then he'll lose some of his appeal.
*** The FISA fight: Before going to New York for those fundraisers, Obama spends his day on the Senate floor, where he will vote for the compromise FISA legislation, which has angered some of his supporters. Not surprisingly, the McCain campaign has already pounced on this. "A few short months ago, Barack Obama outwardly opposed terrorist surveillance legislation, saying that he would filibuster any bill that includes immunity for American telecommunications companies that had been asked by the government to participate in the program,” McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said in a statement. “Today, the U.S. Senate will approve legislation providing the immunity Barack Obama supposedly opposed, and despite his promise, he will not support a filibuster. What Barack Obama will do is show that he's willing to change positions, break campaign commitments and undermine his own words in his quest for higher office." Here's something to watch: Will Hillary Clinton give Obama cover on this?
*** Talkin' 'bout my generation: The TV ad the McCain campaign unveiled yesterday, which invokes the divisive decade of the 1960s, is just another reminder how big a role the generational divide could be in this election. One thing worth pointing out: Perhaps not surprisingly, McCain is over-performing with older voters, while Obama is over-performing among younger ones. According to exit polls, Bush won the 65-and-older crowd by five points (52%-47%) in 2004 and three points (50%-47%) in 2000. But in last month’s NBC/WSJ poll, McCain was leading Obama among this group by seven (48%-41%). Meanwhile, Kerry won the 18-to-29 set by nine points in 2004 (54%-45%), and Gore won them by two in 2000 (48%-46%). Obama? The NBC/WSJ poll had him up 13 points (53%-40%) among those 18 to 34. Also of note: Kerry lost the 30-to-44 crowd in 2004 (53%-46%), as did Gore in 2000 (49%-48%). Yet in our poll, Obama was leading among those 35 to 49 by four points (44%-40%).
*** And looking at white older voters: What’s more on this front, we combined our last two NBC/WSJ surveys to get a larger sample of white voters broken down by age in the Obama-McCain match-up, and while Obama -- at this stage in the race -- outperforms Kerry and Gore among all white voters, the age group where Obama underperforms both Kerry and Gore is among white voters 65+. Obama trails McCain 54%-32%, which is nearly twice the deficit Kerry had at this point with Bush among this group (53%-40%). Obama, of course, does better among white voters under 35, which makes up for the older voter issue. Still, McCain's new ad appears to be aimed at solidifying his strength among older white voters who make up a lion's share of swing voters in states like Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
*** One more thought on the ad: Yesterday's release of the new McCain bio spot signals a turning point in the McCain message -- that everything they do from here on out will be an attempt to make this election a referendum on Obama. The new ad, while appearing biographical in nature, is contrast heavy with Obama. Many Republicans were pushing for McCain to accept the fact that this wasn’t going to be about him, that he had to do something to shift the focus from Bush to Obama. Let's see if they stick to this.
*** On the trail: McCain tours a local energy company in Pittsburgh before heading to Portsmouth, OH to hold a town hall there. Obama is in DC and then heads to New York for those fundraisers. And Michelle Obama speaks with Michigan women in Pontiac.
Countdown to Dem convention: 47 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 54 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 118 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 195 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
