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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama vs. McCain: A new poll, Iraq

Posted: Tuesday, July 15, 2008 9:08 AM by Domenico Montanaro

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain nationally by nine points, 50%-41%. Per a release, “Independent voters split 44%-44%… Sen. McCain has a slight 47%-44% edge among men voters and a larger 49%-42% lead among white voters. But black voters back Sen. Obama 94%-1%, while women support him 55%-36%. Obama leads 63-%-31% percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48%-44% among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45% for McCain and 44% for Obama.”

VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray discusses the latest opinion polls and Barack Obama's speeches to the NAACP and preceeding his trip to the mideast.

Here are some more excerpts from Obama’s foreign policy speech today: “Our men and women in uniform have accomplished every mission we have given them. What’s missing in our debate about Iraq -- what has been missing since before the war began -- is a discussion of the strategic consequences of Iraq and its dominance of our foreign policy. This war distracts us from every threat that we face and so many opportunities we could seize. This war diminishes our security, our standing in the world, our military, our economy, and the resources that we need to confront the challenges of the 21st century. By any measure, our single-minded and open-ended focus on Iraq is not a sound strategy for keeping America safe.”
 
More: “I am running for President of the United States to lead this country in a new direction -- to seize this moment’s promise. Instead of being distracted from the most pressing threats that we face, I want to overcome them. Instead of pushing the entire burden of our foreign policy on to the brave men and women of our military, I want to use all elements of American power to keep us safe, and prosperous, and free. Instead of alienating ourselves from the world, I want America -- once again -- to lead.”

A new Washington Post/ABC poll on the issue of Iraq has good news and bad news for both candidates. The poll “finds the country split down the middle between those backing Sen. Barack Obama's 16-month timeline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and those agreeing with Sen. John McCain's position that events, not timetables, should dictate when forces come home… On Iraq policy in general, Americans continue to side with Obama and McCain, his Republican rival, in roughly equal numbers, with 47 percent of those polled saying they trust McCain more to handle the war, and 45 percent having more faith in Obama.”

More: “The poll results suggest that months of Democratic attacks on McCain's Iraq position have not dented voters' basic trust in his ability to lead the country's armed forces: Seventy-two percent said McCain would make a good commander in chief.” 

Another day, another DNC Web video targeting McCain. This one contains clips from McCain supporting Bush’s (and Rumsfeld’s) policies on Iraq.

The New York Post on McCain's criticism of Obama's Iraq plan: "McC rips O timetable for 'defeat'"

And: “Obama's campaign scrubbed his presidential Web site over the weekend to remove criticism of the U.S. troop ‘surge’ in Iraq, the [NY] Daily News has learned. The presumed Democratic nominee replaced his Iraq issue Web page, which had described the surge as a ‘problem’ that had barely reduced violence. ‘The surge is not working, Obama's old plan stated, citing a lack of Iraqi political cooperation … Obama's campaign posted a new Iraq plan Sunday night, which cites an ‘improved security situation’ paid for with the blood of U.S. troops since the surge began in February 2007. 

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Nice job Barack! We were ahead by the same amount at the same time during our campaigns. It all worked out good for us.
" On Iraq policy in general, Americans continue to side with Obama and McCain, his Republican rival, in roughly equal numbers, with 47 percent of those polled saying they trust McCain more to handle the war, and 45 percent having more faith in Obama.”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And yet the media always says that any conversation about Iraq or national security benefits John McCain when the American people are evenly split on the issue. Why is that?

P.S. Did the Obama campaign "scrub" it's website or update it? Seems like that's a big difference, no?

Funny how this website update is magnified, but increased violence and boldness of attack in Afghanistan is being swept under the rug - as it confirms what Senator Obama said all along - that we have taken our eyes off the primary front in the war on terror.

Finally, John McCain would make a good Commander in Chief, however, America has a better choice this year. We don't need a caretaker of the status quo, we need someone to LEAD us ALL in a new direction. Senator Obama has the judgment, organization, and vision to get the job done - he will be a GREAT commander-in-chief.

America is ready . . .

Obama/Biden '08/'12

he is so not ready. Like a kid learning and changeing to please who he is looking at at the moment.It is good his learning dont take me wrong just the job he is after isnt the one for him right now. Tell him fired at convention. I heard he also scrubbed the people that questioned or didnt fall in line. I think that kool aid cup has holes in it and people are seeing. I say good for them glad to have you back home.There are several sites being set up in quick fashion for these leaving "the movement" and the Capone politics of Chicago. Take care and be safe. For those that cannt yet leave or fear leaving say what you must to be safe but in that booth its you and God. Vote country first.Bring back our glory and hopefully vote Hillary.There is a movement of course to keep her from nomination roll call but we will see.write or talk to your delegates.Polls arent gospel and you say what you must.
According to the media, McFossil benefits from the Iraq war. Interesting that the polls have them in a dead heet. sin't it? Could it be that the media is pro Republican? Just a thought. Polls numbers continue to look good for Obama. This should only increase as the deabtes begin and people realize just how old and out of touch McFossil truly is. I expect a big lead going into November for Barack.
Mox, this comment is so inarticulate - I can't even get to the underlying point.  Can you simplify?  Perhaps you should use smaller words so you don't confuse yourself?

Not only am I not voting for Hillary; but my financial willingness to help her retire her debt is strictly tied to her behavior at the convention.  If she is not in complete support of Obama, she can retire her own debt.
Great post Nashville_fan and I too have wondered why everyone automatically concedes McCain's qualifications in this area.  His "bomb Iran" and "that's one way to kill them" comments were in extremely poor tastes and hints at the arrogance the other candidate is supposed to have.  
Can anyone point to one specific thing in that speech?  This guy is unbeatable when it comes to offering absolutely nothing new-kind of like that NYT op-ed piece.  It said nothing!  And this is supposed to be a major speech.  How about some specifics, Obama?
It has been a long, long time since we have had a leader with any insight, energy or new ideas. I am so proud I supported Obama in our caucus. This is exactly the change I was hoping to see in our national debate over Iraq/Afghansitan. I want Obama to be our new leader.
The pundits, and military strategists, while commenting on the deaths of nine of our soldiers in Afghanistan, acknowledged that Obama has had the correct vision, and judgement with regard to our invasion of Iraq as unfounded, and his call to train our military might on Pakistani strongholds used by the terrorists that attacked us on 9/11.

They said that even though Pres. Bush, and Senator McCain mocked, and criticized Senator Obama  when he gave his views on how we should frame our foreign policy, and how we should use our military, Gw's administration ended up doing exactly what Obama had called for.

Barack  must clearly communicates this dynamic. I hope he will be successful doing just that, beginning today.
I'm glad Obama is still leading Mccain in the National Polls.  I may or may not vote for him;  But anything in the White House is better than another Republican..
But who's going to protect all those no bid contracts and Haliburton contractors if we pull out of Iraq?  

Sickening...and did you hear about Bush's cronie asking for money for his presidential library in return for a meeting with the top tier executive.

Our country is for sale to the highest bidder, and the republican party are the auctioneers...
Iraq War vs No Iraq War

National Televised Debate Please

McKill vs OHope (to end that mess)
>>A new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain nationally by nine points<<

Wasn't it just yesterday that y'all were in a bit tizzy because Obama only led McCain by three points, which was within the margin of error, in another poll? And if so, what does that say about paying too much attention to specific numbers, rather than overall trends?
The Iraqis have already rejected Bush's attempt to conclude an unconstitutional Treaty with them unless it includes immediate or scheduled withdrawal....what more does 50% of the country need? Why does the press ignore this?
Land of the ignorant. Home of the stupid.
now this is what i call an accurate poll...ok at least until the next poll comes out.  i still think its a tight race.  the pollsters need to find a way to poll cell phone people only because i only use a cell phone and my mother uses a cell phone only and my fathers a businessman and he only uses a cell phone.  so they should poll cellphone only users.


mccain has missed more votes in the senate then any other senator
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/11/mccain-hasnt-voted-in-the-senate-since-april-8-2008/
or
http://sensico2.blogspot.com/2008/07/my-blogs.html
It was a big deal last week when the Newsweek poll showed that Obama was only ahead by 3 points nationally. It was featured prominently on the MSNBC website with a link to the poll. Now the Quinnipiac poll shows Obama ahead by 9 points and what kind of treatment does it get. It gets buried here in the basement of MSNBC. MSNBC stands for Most Stories Need Big Corrections. Your establishment bias is not only showing, it's shouting!
one candidate has VISION FOR THE FUTURE  and one candidtate has memory lapses.
Even more impressive then the new national poll is the new Rasmussen poll (which seems to lean right)showing Obama increasing his leads in Michigan, Iowa and Minn. So much for Newsweek trying to correct its first poll by over doing it the second time.
Obama is absolutely right! We are frittering away our money, our sons and daughters and our standing in the world, while the Taliban reconstitutes under our noses next door.
Can anyone point to one specific thing in that speech?  This guy is unbeatable when it comes to offering absolutely nothing new-kind of like that NYT op-ed piece.  It said nothing!  And this is supposed to be a major speech.  How about some specifics, Obama?
posted by:He's just not ready
********************************************************
At first I couldn't quite understand, how so many of us could easily quote policy specifics from Obama's campaign and others were still saying "we don't know him' and 'we don't see or hear any specifics', then I realized some people get so used to listening to people like Rush Limbuagh and Bill O'reilly, who tell them exactly what they should be thinking about each day, why they should be outraged about the particular subject, etc.   We, unfortunately have a large segment of the population who aren't accustomed to actually doing any thinking for themselves. (and they will never be able to see what Obama offers)
This election isn't about Barack Obama, it is about us.  We will be given the opportunity to help steer this Great Ship of America back on the course of our choosing.   It will depend on us doing some of the heavy lifting and not always depending on someone else to tell us how to think.
Regarding the whoever new national poll number, the appropriate response is "whatever." These national polls aren't quite meaningless, but pretty darned close to that.

If we want to fixate on a numbers race, probably the better one is electoral votes in terms of safe states, leaners and toss ups. And then fix our focus on the key states, and how any tracking polls there may be moving.
I see very few pundits (Including you guys ;-) ) covering the fact that a determinative amount of Obama's support is not being reflected in the polls. Students & minorities who don't have a landline and thus aren't polled. I read an article claiming that could give him an additional 2-3%, but my uneducated guess is higher maybe 4-5%. The empowered youth vote will stick it to their parents by voting this year. The black vote & Latino vote is being hit with voter registration. Despite early reservations, Latinos seem to understand that if a black guy can be president, that means a brown guy can too. There seems to be some motivation in that community. I know national polls are really just to get a feel of the country, but I think places like GA & FL will surprise the GOP in a bad way.
Those people who are saying that Senator Obama is too young need only to look back at History.  If elected, he will be the fourth youngest President behind:

John F. Kennedy 42y
Theodore Roosevelt 42y
and Bill Clinton 46y

All of the above were considered good, if not great Presidents of the United States.  

On the other hand, of the Presidents over 65 of which there were also three, only one could be considered good, Ronald Reagan.  Though popular, history will tell if his policies did worse for the American economy in the long run than those any other President (our current economic difficulties stem from policies developed by the RNC and President Reagan during his Presidency.)  The other two in the over 65 group have some distinction. William Henry Harrison was the first President to die in office (of natural causes no less) and James Buchanan who is largely considered to be one of the worst, if not the worst President in US history.
Mox is such a lox cause silly Hillie ain't a winnin' fillie.  Vote for America and Americans Vote Obama.
Donna is exactly correct, McCain and Bush critizie Senator Obama and turn right around and mimic him. That has certainly been true in Bush's efforts in foreign policy.  
I don't trust the slow-funtioning brain of McCain nor Bush.  

Right now Bush is trashing the Democrats and putting all the blame for the economy on the Democrats!  Incredulous!  I hate republicans!  They lie, line their pockets with unjust revenues and blame the democrats when the consequences come from their
self-serving, illegal behaviors.
I will never vote for a republican, much less one like mccain who is so lacking in every skill and quality needed to be an effective leader.
Clara I am sorry you had trouble reading my post; Let me see if I can make it easier for you.Now listen up sweetie. Obama does not have what it takes to get the job he is after.He changes his stance ,Tells us what he thinks we need to hear to vote for him.He uses Chicago politics of old and says he is a new person that will do away with old politics. He will start when??He says he will be transparent(everyone being able to see him ) yet he has closed fund raisers and questions McCain on it. He is a double standard polition.(say one thing do another-good for me not you) you get the drift?? Obama will not win NOv. main Idea.rest you will have to look up running out of small words for you.I have read your other posts and understand your problem. I will try to be more exact next time. The people I was talking to know what I ment anyway.
He can learn on the job like BUSH did and rely on his cronies to know the issues and act on them like rove did or scooter or brownie who knows what his friends are like
to amy in maine, if you are looking for a leader with insight,energy and new ideas barrack obama is not your man, he said nothing new, has done nothing new nor will he able to do anything new..............nobama..
This is a FACT: No matter what the polls say, the MSM is going to act like this is a close race all the way until the end. Having one candidate comfortably ahead of another is NOT EXCITING! We're in the dog-days of summer, nothing interesting is going on, and a "heated" campaign is all they have to talk about. So they ALL have a vested interest in continuing to portray this as "anyone's game".

How much attention to 'gaffes' get? It depends on whether or not the person making the gaffe is up by a large margin. If they are, then highlighting it helps to narrow the gap, so it will get plenty of attention. If the person making the gaffe is behind, then the MSM will bury it, because that would only serve to increase the gap and make it less of a horse race.

ALL THEY WANT IS A HORSE-RACE, and they will continue to shape the media narrative in order to facilitate that end. It's dishonest journalism, but understand that honesty only has value if it increases ratings and give the self-important pundits something to talk about.
You know, honestly looking at the two candidates, I don't see McCain holding the edge on any of the issues.  His so called expertise in national security is questionable.  He may have been an expert in the 60's and 70's, but it's a different world now, and I don't think McCain gets it.  I see Obama with all the advantages.  Oh, except one, the media apparently favors mccain heavily.  Lord help us if they help elect another C- legacy admission.  We need more than image in the white house.
Not only am I not voting for Hillary; but my financial willingness to help her retire her debt is strictly tied to her behavior at the convention.  If she is not in complete support of Obama, she can retire her own debt.


Clara Kansas City, MO

 My sentiments exactly. I am one of those people who felt that Mrs. Clinton could have don a lot better with her money and the money of her contributers. Now she wants help in retiring her debt and I feel it should be tied directly to the amount of support she gives the Primary Winner. She lost and overspent in the process. I'm not giving any more money to anyone until I get assurances that Obama is satisfied with her and her supporters cooperation. They are in no position to demand anything. They are Democrats and will not be siding with McCain so I suggest they get with the program.
Can anyone point to one specific thing in that speech?  This guy is unbeatable when it comes to offering absolutely nothing new-kind of like that NYT op-ed piece.  It said nothing!  And this is supposed to be a major speech.  How about some specifics, Obama?
posted by:He's just not ready
********************************************************
At first I couldn't quite understand, how so many of us could easily quote policy specifics from Obama's campaign and others were still saying "we don't know him' and 'we don't see or hear any specifics', then I realized some people get so used to listening to people like Rush Limbuagh and Bill O'reilly, who tell them exactly what they should be thinking about each day, why they should be outraged about the particular subject, etc.   We, unfortunately have a large segment of the population who aren't accustomed to actually doing any thinking for themselves. (and they will never be able to see what Obama offers)
This election isn't about Barack Obama, it is about us.  We will be given the opportunity to help steer this Great Ship of America back on the course of our choosing.   It will depend on us doing some of the heavy lifting and not always depending on someone else to tell us how to think.
Eileen , Portland, ME (Sent Tuesday, July 15, 2008 10:23 AM)
--------------------

Well said, ....... To point how many people don't form their own opinion... they repeat others.....
Obama....wrong about Iraq. Obama....wrong about the seriousness of external threats. Obama....wrong about NAFTA and free trade. Obama is a lightweight who will be a disaster if president. The real bad guys are hoping he will be president because they know they will either negotiate with him for bad deals for the USA or push us around in international dealings because he is gutless. Our enemies have measured the man and they are rooting for Obama to win. God help us.
Women are for Hilary.She has the most knowledge of what is going on in this country and the rest of the world.She is on the armed forces committee and she has done a lot for our service men and veterans.Obama has never served our country and he thinks he can be commander in chief.In fact Obama wants to take nuclear off the table when this country developed nuclear weapons.That is one reason we have not been attact scince 9/11.Obama ha said that he will surround himself with advisors.Bush is surrounded with advisors and one of them Cheney is running our country.he cannot speak for him self now without the teleprompter telling him what to say.Thats the reason his nose is always up in the air looking at the TELEPROMPTER.


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